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Berenson/ Williams Capital March 23, 2004

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Berenson/Williams Capital. March 23, 2004. Safe Harbor Provisions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Berenson/Williams Capital

Berenson/Williams Capital

March 23, 2004

Page 2: Berenson/Williams Capital

2

Safe Harbor Provisions

This presentation contains statements that may be considered forward looking statements, such as management’s expectations of future earnings, cash position, sources of funds, coverage ratios, market conditions, customer growth, regulatory action, and the anticipated completion of various projects. These statements speak of the Company’s plans, goals, beliefs, or expectations, refer to estimates or use similar terms. Actual results could differ materially. All forward looking statements included in this presentation are based upon information presently available, and the Company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements.

Page 3: Berenson/Williams Capital

3

$1.18

$0.91$1.08

$1.24

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

2002 2003EPS Excluding

Significant Items

EPS

Reported EPS2002 2003

Update on NU’s 2003 Financial Results

Page 4: Berenson/Williams Capital

4

$80.1

$64.6

$89.2

$45.5

$17.6$7.3

$37.7

$16.2

($52.4)

$30.0

$0.0 $2.6

-$55.0

-$30.0

-$5.0

$20.0

$45.0

$70.0

$95.0

2002 2003

CL&P* PSNH/NAEC

YankeeGas

WMECO NUEIMerchantEnergy*

NUEIServices

Ear

ning

s in

Mill

ions

* Excluding SMD charge

2003 Driven by Improved Competitive Business Results

Page 5: Berenson/Williams Capital

5

What Created Recovery of Competitive Businesses?

Improved portfolio management Resized retail organization Improved realized retail margins Refocused trading as a wholesale support function

significantly reducing risk Improved rainfall levels impacting hydroelectric

output Improved results from generation assets

Page 6: Berenson/Williams Capital

6

Improvement Possible in 2004

Earnings Per Share 2003* 2004 Projected

Regulated Businesses $1.05 $1.08 - $1.20

Competitive Businesses $0.25 $0.22 - $0.30

Parent Expense ($0.06) ($0.10)

Consolidated NU $1.24 $1.20 - $1.40

*Excludes SMD cost, accounting charge

Page 7: Berenson/Williams Capital

7

Key Factors in 2004 Results

Regulated

• PSNH rate case

• Improved CL&P results

• Yankee Gas recovery

• Pension income

• O&M controls

Competitive

• Managing wholesale book

• Achieving success in wholesale RFPs

• Expanding retail book and achieving first profitable year

• Improving services business

Page 8: Berenson/Williams Capital

8

Improved Results Expected at CL&P in 2004

Public Act signed into law June 25, 2003 Transitional standard offer took effect January 1, 2004 Rate cap raised 11.1% for 2004 and beyond Procurement fee of 0.5/mill began January 1

Additional 0.25 mill incentive can be earned Could produce $12-$18 million/year of additional pre-tax income

Flow through of all energy related and “federally mandated” costs

Rate decision effective January 1, 2004 Distribution rates set for four years Transmission rates increased $28 million Distribution ROE of 9.85% Endorsement of $900 distribution capital program Write off of $16 million pension asset in 2003 – decision on

reconsideration due in June

Page 9: Berenson/Williams Capital

9

PSNH Update – Current Items

December 2003: PSNH filed rate case requesting 2.6% ($21 million) increase

Hearings in early August Decision will be retroactive to February 2004

January 2004: PSNH closed on Connecticut Valley Electric Co. acquisition

$9 million for assets (11,000 customer accounts); $21 million to buy down power contract

February 2004:Energy supply rate rose to 5.36 cents/kwh from 4.6 – 4.67 cents

Based on estimated costs of owned generation and market purchases of power

March 2004: PSNH filed settlement on $70 million conversion of Schiller unit to burn wood (waste)

Page 10: Berenson/Williams Capital

10

Pension Costs Remain a Significant Issue for Regulated Businesses

$20

$44$53

$91$101

$73

$32

($3)

($21) ($26)

-$60

-$40

-$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

-----Estimated-----Note: Amounts are Pre-Tax. In 2003, approximately52% of credit was expensed

$Mill

ions

Page 11: Berenson/Williams Capital

11

2004 Competitive Business Net Income Preview by Business Line

Merchant Energy Energy/Generation Services

$24 - $31 million

$4 - $7 million

Total Projected 2004 Net Income $28-$38 Million

Page 12: Berenson/Williams Capital

12

Region Company Service Start Date

TermTotal Load (MW)

AmountsWon

New England

MECo Default 11/1/03 3 mos. to 1 yr.

900 700 MW

NSTAR SO & DS 1/1/04 3 to 14 mos. 1,600 650 MW

UI TSO 1/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 1,200 -

CL&P TSO 1/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 5,000 1,875 MW

WMECO SO & DS 1/1/04 3 to 14 mos. 710 450 MW

MECO Ind. Default 2/1/04 3 mos. 280 200 MW

Maine SO 3/1/04 6 mos. 520 -

NSTAR Ind. Default 4/1/04 3 mos. 450 Not yet bid

WMECO Ind. Default 4/1/04 3 mos. 50 Not yet bid

MECO Default 5/1/04 3 mos. to 1 yr.

900 Not yet bid

PJM NJ IOUs BGS 6/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 10,400 NU share not announced

Maryland IOUs

Full Req. 7/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 5,500 Not announced

Total Available

27,510

Calendar of Bids in Wholesale Market

Page 13: Berenson/Williams Capital

13

Key Factors Beyond 2004

Regulated

• Transmission rate case

• Transmission build out

• Yankee Gas rate case

• Sales growth

• Cost savings

Competitive

• Competitiveness in wholesale RFPs

• Retail market expansion

• Improvements at owned generation

• Services expansion

Page 14: Berenson/Williams Capital

14

NU Forecasting Significant Regulated Capital Investment Program

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Regulated Electric Regulated Natural Gas NGC Other

$ Millions - Excluding AFUDC

Page 15: Berenson/Williams Capital

15

That Needed Investment Will Result in a Growing Distribution Rate Base

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ Millions

Dis

trib

utio

n R

ate

Bas

e(E

lect

ric a

nd G

as)

Page 16: Berenson/Williams Capital

16

CL&P Transmission Business: $1 Billion Investment Forecast

* CL&P’s 80% share

(Bethel

to Norwalk)

(Middletown

to Norwalk)

Siting Process Construction

20062005200420032001 2002 2007

$200 M

$496 M *

2008

Capital Program $15 M $36 M $66 M $225 M $190 M $160 M $160 M $160 M

Phase I

Phase II

7/03: Siting Council decision 12/03: Norwalk Substation expansion began 6/04: 115kV & 345kV underground construction begins 8/04: Gas-Insulated Substation starts 12/04: Overhead line orders under contract

5/03: Municipal consultation 10/03: Siting Council application filed 12/03 – 2/04: Public hearings process 3/04 – 4/04: Adjudicative hearings (estimated) 6/04: DEP filing (estimated) 10/04: Siting Council decision

Page 17: Berenson/Williams Capital

17

Success of Business Plan Predicated Upon Financial Strength

Moody’s S&P Fitch

Investment Grade A2/A CL&P Bonds

A3/A- CL&P Issuer

CL&P Unsecured

WMECO Issuer

WMECO Unsecured

PSNH Bonds

CL&P Bonds CL&P Bonds

Baa1/BBB+ NU Issuer

NU Notes

PSNH Issuer

Yankee Issuer

NU Corporate Credit

CL&P Corporate Credit

WMECO Corporate Credit

WMECO Unsecured

PSNH Corporate Credit

PSNH Bonds

Yankee Corporate Credit

CL&P Unsecured

WMECO Unsecured

Average S&P Utility Corporate Credit Rating

Baa2/BBB CL&P Preferred

NGC Bonds

NU Notes

CL&P Unsecured

NU Notes

CL&P Preferred

PSNH Bonds

NGC Bonds(2005)

Baa3/BBB- CL&P Preferred

NGC Bonds

NGC Bonds(2026)

Below Investment Grade

None None None

Page 18: Berenson/Williams Capital

18

Preserving Ratings Requires Strong Balance Sheet

52.7% 53.1% 55.1% 56.7% 52.5% 47.0%

6.7%

40.2% 43.3%

2.3%

53.0%47.5%44.9%45.0%

Total Debt Preferred Common

NUConsol.

CL&P PSNH WMECO YankeeGas

NGC

Lev

erag

e T

arg

et 5

5%

(Excludes RRBs)

(as of 12/31/03)

Page 19: Berenson/Williams Capital

19

Low Payouts Have Allowed Common Dividend Increases

$0.10

$0.89

$0.40

$1.45

$0.45

$1.37

$0.525

$1.08

$0.575

$1.24

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Dividends Per Share

Earnings Per Share Excluding Significant Items

Page 20: Berenson/Williams Capital

20

Summary

2004 earnings projection consistent within street consensus Street range of $1.25 to $1.36 per share

Plans for transmission buildout progressing

Recovery of competitive businesses on track

Financial and credit profile strong and remains a priority