berenson/williams capital
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Berenson/Williams Capital. March 23, 2004. Safe Harbor Provisions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Berenson/Williams Capital
March 23, 2004
2
Safe Harbor Provisions
This presentation contains statements that may be considered forward looking statements, such as management’s expectations of future earnings, cash position, sources of funds, coverage ratios, market conditions, customer growth, regulatory action, and the anticipated completion of various projects. These statements speak of the Company’s plans, goals, beliefs, or expectations, refer to estimates or use similar terms. Actual results could differ materially. All forward looking statements included in this presentation are based upon information presently available, and the Company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements.
3
$1.18
$0.91$1.08
$1.24
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
2002 2003EPS Excluding
Significant Items
EPS
Reported EPS2002 2003
Update on NU’s 2003 Financial Results
4
$80.1
$64.6
$89.2
$45.5
$17.6$7.3
$37.7
$16.2
($52.4)
$30.0
$0.0 $2.6
-$55.0
-$30.0
-$5.0
$20.0
$45.0
$70.0
$95.0
2002 2003
CL&P* PSNH/NAEC
YankeeGas
WMECO NUEIMerchantEnergy*
NUEIServices
Ear
ning
s in
Mill
ions
* Excluding SMD charge
2003 Driven by Improved Competitive Business Results
5
What Created Recovery of Competitive Businesses?
Improved portfolio management Resized retail organization Improved realized retail margins Refocused trading as a wholesale support function
significantly reducing risk Improved rainfall levels impacting hydroelectric
output Improved results from generation assets
6
Improvement Possible in 2004
Earnings Per Share 2003* 2004 Projected
Regulated Businesses $1.05 $1.08 - $1.20
Competitive Businesses $0.25 $0.22 - $0.30
Parent Expense ($0.06) ($0.10)
Consolidated NU $1.24 $1.20 - $1.40
*Excludes SMD cost, accounting charge
7
Key Factors in 2004 Results
Regulated
• PSNH rate case
• Improved CL&P results
• Yankee Gas recovery
• Pension income
• O&M controls
Competitive
• Managing wholesale book
• Achieving success in wholesale RFPs
• Expanding retail book and achieving first profitable year
• Improving services business
8
Improved Results Expected at CL&P in 2004
Public Act signed into law June 25, 2003 Transitional standard offer took effect January 1, 2004 Rate cap raised 11.1% for 2004 and beyond Procurement fee of 0.5/mill began January 1
Additional 0.25 mill incentive can be earned Could produce $12-$18 million/year of additional pre-tax income
Flow through of all energy related and “federally mandated” costs
Rate decision effective January 1, 2004 Distribution rates set for four years Transmission rates increased $28 million Distribution ROE of 9.85% Endorsement of $900 distribution capital program Write off of $16 million pension asset in 2003 – decision on
reconsideration due in June
9
PSNH Update – Current Items
December 2003: PSNH filed rate case requesting 2.6% ($21 million) increase
Hearings in early August Decision will be retroactive to February 2004
January 2004: PSNH closed on Connecticut Valley Electric Co. acquisition
$9 million for assets (11,000 customer accounts); $21 million to buy down power contract
February 2004:Energy supply rate rose to 5.36 cents/kwh from 4.6 – 4.67 cents
Based on estimated costs of owned generation and market purchases of power
March 2004: PSNH filed settlement on $70 million conversion of Schiller unit to burn wood (waste)
10
Pension Costs Remain a Significant Issue for Regulated Businesses
$20
$44$53
$91$101
$73
$32
($3)
($21) ($26)
-$60
-$40
-$20
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-----Estimated-----Note: Amounts are Pre-Tax. In 2003, approximately52% of credit was expensed
$Mill
ions
11
2004 Competitive Business Net Income Preview by Business Line
Merchant Energy Energy/Generation Services
$24 - $31 million
$4 - $7 million
Total Projected 2004 Net Income $28-$38 Million
12
Region Company Service Start Date
TermTotal Load (MW)
AmountsWon
New England
MECo Default 11/1/03 3 mos. to 1 yr.
900 700 MW
NSTAR SO & DS 1/1/04 3 to 14 mos. 1,600 650 MW
UI TSO 1/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 1,200 -
CL&P TSO 1/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 5,000 1,875 MW
WMECO SO & DS 1/1/04 3 to 14 mos. 710 450 MW
MECO Ind. Default 2/1/04 3 mos. 280 200 MW
Maine SO 3/1/04 6 mos. 520 -
NSTAR Ind. Default 4/1/04 3 mos. 450 Not yet bid
WMECO Ind. Default 4/1/04 3 mos. 50 Not yet bid
MECO Default 5/1/04 3 mos. to 1 yr.
900 Not yet bid
PJM NJ IOUs BGS 6/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 10,400 NU share not announced
Maryland IOUs
Full Req. 7/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 5,500 Not announced
Total Available
27,510
Calendar of Bids in Wholesale Market
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Key Factors Beyond 2004
Regulated
• Transmission rate case
• Transmission build out
• Yankee Gas rate case
• Sales growth
• Cost savings
Competitive
• Competitiveness in wholesale RFPs
• Retail market expansion
• Improvements at owned generation
• Services expansion
14
NU Forecasting Significant Regulated Capital Investment Program
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Regulated Electric Regulated Natural Gas NGC Other
$ Millions - Excluding AFUDC
15
That Needed Investment Will Result in a Growing Distribution Rate Base
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ Millions
Dis
trib
utio
n R
ate
Bas
e(E
lect
ric a
nd G
as)
16
CL&P Transmission Business: $1 Billion Investment Forecast
* CL&P’s 80% share
(Bethel
to Norwalk)
(Middletown
to Norwalk)
Siting Process Construction
20062005200420032001 2002 2007
$200 M
$496 M *
2008
Capital Program $15 M $36 M $66 M $225 M $190 M $160 M $160 M $160 M
Phase I
Phase II
7/03: Siting Council decision 12/03: Norwalk Substation expansion began 6/04: 115kV & 345kV underground construction begins 8/04: Gas-Insulated Substation starts 12/04: Overhead line orders under contract
5/03: Municipal consultation 10/03: Siting Council application filed 12/03 – 2/04: Public hearings process 3/04 – 4/04: Adjudicative hearings (estimated) 6/04: DEP filing (estimated) 10/04: Siting Council decision
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Success of Business Plan Predicated Upon Financial Strength
Moody’s S&P Fitch
Investment Grade A2/A CL&P Bonds
A3/A- CL&P Issuer
CL&P Unsecured
WMECO Issuer
WMECO Unsecured
PSNH Bonds
CL&P Bonds CL&P Bonds
Baa1/BBB+ NU Issuer
NU Notes
PSNH Issuer
Yankee Issuer
NU Corporate Credit
CL&P Corporate Credit
WMECO Corporate Credit
WMECO Unsecured
PSNH Corporate Credit
PSNH Bonds
Yankee Corporate Credit
CL&P Unsecured
WMECO Unsecured
Average S&P Utility Corporate Credit Rating
Baa2/BBB CL&P Preferred
NGC Bonds
NU Notes
CL&P Unsecured
NU Notes
CL&P Preferred
PSNH Bonds
NGC Bonds(2005)
Baa3/BBB- CL&P Preferred
NGC Bonds
NGC Bonds(2026)
Below Investment Grade
None None None
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Preserving Ratings Requires Strong Balance Sheet
52.7% 53.1% 55.1% 56.7% 52.5% 47.0%
6.7%
40.2% 43.3%
2.3%
53.0%47.5%44.9%45.0%
Total Debt Preferred Common
NUConsol.
CL&P PSNH WMECO YankeeGas
NGC
Lev
erag
e T
arg
et 5
5%
(Excludes RRBs)
(as of 12/31/03)
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Low Payouts Have Allowed Common Dividend Increases
$0.10
$0.89
$0.40
$1.45
$0.45
$1.37
$0.525
$1.08
$0.575
$1.24
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Dividends Per Share
Earnings Per Share Excluding Significant Items
20
Summary
2004 earnings projection consistent within street consensus Street range of $1.25 to $1.36 per share
Plans for transmission buildout progressing
Recovery of competitive businesses on track
Financial and credit profile strong and remains a priority