belgrade, 25-26 apr 2013 prof. dr. zoran milutinovic 2 nd project workshop improvements in the...
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Belgrade, 25-26 Apr 2013
Prof. Dr. Zoran Milutinovic
2nd Project Workshop
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries| SfP 984374 |
Improvements and Harmonization ofMacedonian Earthquake Catalogue
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP | NATO SfP 984374Working Packages
WP 1: STRONG GROUND MOTION DATA BASE AND GROUND MOTION PREDICTION MODELS
Leading Countries: Serbia, CroatiaWP Duration: 12 months
1) Examining and filtering the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue for missing or duplicate events and fulfillment of missing or new earthquake data;
2) Investigating the catalogue completeness and identifying the possible existing gaps in the catalogue;
3) Unification of the magnitude scales and adding available earthquake metadata for the present earthquakes;
4) Providing a final earthquake catalogue compatible with international standards.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
MACEDONIA EARTHQUAKE CATALOQUE(year 479 BC to 2005 AC) | 681 events | M = 2.9 – 7.8
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992)
For testing purposes overall BSHAP (final version) catalogue was examined in order to be defined and tested earthquake hazard parameters. This approach allows us to utilize the historic part of catalogue, or equivalently, the largest, historic events.
For testing purposes have been created synthetic catalogue for the area <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>, with time span 10,000 years. The synthetic data was generated according to assumption that catalogue was divided into 2 parts: extreme events and 8 sub-complete periods.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 1
Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: Catalogue is starting from AD 1150 The catalogue of historical events with time span -510 to 1150 was ignored
Mean Activity rate lambda (for Mw=4.0)Min=0.0064; Max=0.4966
Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue(time span 10,000 years)
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 1
Distribution of MmaxMin=6.55; Max=7.62
Distribution of b-value of G-RMin=0.50; Max=1.11
Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: Catalogue is starting from AD 1150 The catalogue of historical events with time span -510 to 1150 was ignored
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 2Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: The catalogue is starting from -510.2 parts, extreme (the largest events, within time span -510 - 1150) andcomplete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010).
Mean Activity rate lambda (for Mw=4.0)Min=0.0009; Max=0.3676
Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue(time span 10,000 years)
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 2Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: The catalogue is starting from -510.2 parts, extreme (the largest events, within time span -510 - 1150) andcomplete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010).
Distribution of MmaxMin=6.55; Max=7.62
Distribution of b-value of G-RMin=0.52; Max=1.02
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992)
SUMMARYPremises:Area: <38.0 N - 47.5 N> & <12.5 E- 24.5 E> Catalogue start: 510 BCS. Cat. time span: 10,000 years Grid: 1 degreeNode radius: 250 km Results in terms of:Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue (time span 10,000 years) Distribution of Mean Activity rate (Lambda) for Mw=4.0Distribution of G-R b-valueDistribution of Mmax
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992)
Test AssumptionsLambda (Mx=4.0) G-R b-value Mmax
Min Max Min Max Min Max1 Historical events 510BC to 1150AD
ignoredCatalogue istarts from AD 1150
0.0064 0.4966 0.50 1.11 6.55 7.62
2 Part 1: extreme (the largest events, within time span BC510 – 1150ADPart 2: complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010AD)
0.0009 0.3676 0.52 1.02 6.55 7.62
3 Part 1: extreme (the largest events, within time span BC510 – 1400ADPart 2: complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010AD)
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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992)
TEST 3 - Ongoing1) Alternative division of the catalogue (longer historic
catalogue -510 - 1400 and -510 - 1830);
PLAN
2) Different mesh sizes (used 1 degree); 3) Different node radiuses (used 250 km)
4) Influence of pre and aftershocks on the seismic hazard parameters;
5) Comparison with results obtained from the declustered earthquake catalogue.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992)
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake CatalogueKijko & Sellevoll (1992)
Thank you