becoming your own futurist
DESCRIPTION
This presentation by Paul Schumann provides an introduction of his way of looking at the future and developing foresight.TRANSCRIPT
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Becoming Your Own Futurist
Paul Schumann
Glocal Vantage Inc.
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Topics
The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity
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Topics
The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity
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Types of Futuring
Future 1
Future 2
Today
Normative
Projective
What are possible futures?Can we find a path to get to those futures?
What is the trend?What may affect the trend?What are the potential futures?
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Topics
The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)
Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)
Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
Nonproductive (25 years)
Counter Productive (25 years)
Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)
Technology Life Cycle
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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EPIC 2015
EPIC by Robin Sloan & Matt Thompson, http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/epic (2005)
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
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The Four Futures
SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.75
Earthquake Magnitude
Nu
mb
er
of
Ea
rth
qu
ak
es
Earthquakes
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Topics
The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity
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Four Causes of Reality
First Cause: MaterialSecond Cause: FormalThird Cause: EfficientFourth Cause: Final (Purpose)
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Driving Forces
DemographicSociopoliticalTechnologicalEconomic
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Demographic
Population GrowthAge DistributionMulticulturalism
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Population GrowthPopulation of US
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illi
on
s)
Actual
Projection
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Age Distribution
Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020
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Sociopolitical
OpennessSmart MobsInnovation
CommonsGender EquityDecentralizati
onPluralismParadoxicalNon-Career
Lives
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Technological
Infocom Technologies Internet Personal
Devices Wireless
Digital Location
Sensors Embedded
Infocom Devices
New Software Applications
GenomicsNanomaterialsNanomachines
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Internet Users
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Year
Inte
rnet
Use
rs W
orl
dw
ide
(Mil
lio
ns)
eTForecasts (2000)
Computer Industry Almanac (2000)
Computer Industry Almanac (1999)
Tapscott (1996)
US DOC (1999)
Trend Analysis (2001)
World's Population
World's Population
Glocal Vantage, Inc.
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Economic
GrowthInnovationServiceVirtual IntegrationGlocalityGames
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Nature of Work
Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020
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Economic Maturation of Technology
Nonproductive (25 years)Counter Productive (25 years)Hyperproductive and
Transformational (25 years)
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Developing Foresight
Inputs
Techniques
Output
Decision/Question
QualitativeQuantitativeTimeProbability
Planning Implementation
AssumptionsDataInsightJudgement
ProjectiveNormative
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Techniques to Improve Foresight
SurveillanceTrend
AnalysisExpert
OpinionIntegrative
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Techniques to Improve Foresight
SurveillanceTrend
AnalysisExpert
OpinionIntegrative
ScanningMonitoringTracking
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Surveillance
ScanningMonitoringTracking
Moving away
Moving tangentially
Moving towards
Not moving, getting larger
Not moving, getting smaller
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Techniques to Improve Foresight
SurveillanceTrend
AnalysisExpert
OpinionIntegrative
AnalogyPrecursor
developmentsTrend
extrapolationLimit curveSubstitution
analysisMultiple
substitution analysis
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Techniques to Improve Foresight
SurveillanceTrend
AnalysisExpert
OpinionIntegrative
InterviewsSurveysGroups
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Techniques to Improve Foresight
SurveillanceTrend
AnalysisExpert
OpinionIntegrative
Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat
Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation Map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Future Frequencies
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Topics
The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity
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Knowing Yourself
Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving
Forces Are Invisible
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Knowing Yourself
Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving
Forces Are Invisible
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Temperament
SJ“Guardian”
NT“Rationalists”
NF“Idealists”
SP“Artisans”
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Knowing Yourself
Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving
Forces Are Invisible
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Blind Spots
Known UnknownSelf
Known
Unknown
Others
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Knowing Yourself
Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving
Forces Are Invisible
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Values and Information
Same Different
Information
Same
Different
Values
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Knowing Yourself
Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving
Forces Are Invisible
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Topics
The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity
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Insight and Creativity
Noise
Data
Knowledge
Wisdom
Information
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“There is absolutely no inevitability as long as there is a willingness to contemplate what is happening.”
Marshall McLuhan
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Paul Schumann
PO Box 161475Austin, TX [email protected]
omhttp://incollaboration.ning.comhttp://centexwfs.ning.com
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