becoming a data mining machine learning practitioner

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Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009 Becoming a Data Mining/ Machine Learning Practitioner… Tim Graettinger www.discoverycorpsinc.com

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This talk was presented on 3/19/2009 to the Machine Learning / Data Mining class at Carnegie Mellon University. A number of scenarios were discussed to put the students "in the shoes" of a consultant working with clients.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Becoming a Data Mining/

Machine Learning Practitioner…

Tim Graettingerwww.discoverycorpsinc.com

Page 2: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

I was you, 24 years ago

Page 3: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Fast forward to 1989

Page 4: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Yankelovich

NeuralWare

NeuralMed Analytika

businessmodel.com

ISR

Page 5: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Page 6: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

why am I here

Page 7: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

“I could tell you what it’s like to be a data mining practitioner…”

“…or I could let you experience it.”

Page 8: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Catalogs

Page 9: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

“Build a response model for a direct mail cataloguer…”

“…and we need to beat their in-house team.”

Page 10: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What have we got?

• 30,000 rows from a test mailing to existing customers

• 50 columns– Name, address– Demographics (some categorical)– Behaviors (RFM)– Response

Page 11: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What do we do?

Page 12: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Railroads

Page 13: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

“These guys seem to be having a problem with the software…”

“…figure out what’s wrong and fix it.”

Page 14: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What have we got?

• S&P 500 Demo

Day1

Day2

Day3

Day10

Day11

30 hidden nodes

Page 15: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What do we do?

Page 16: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Magazines

Page 17: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

“Build a prospect model for a financial publisher…”

“…and we need to present to the client in two weeks.”

Page 18: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What have we got?

• 1M rows from their most-recent campaign mailing

• 500 columns– Name, address– Demographics (Lots categorical)– Lifestyle– Response

Page 19: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

But wait, there’s more

• At the presentation(s)– Did gender “pop”? Income? Wealth?– No, No, and No

• Model does “OK” in test mailing– Expected better

Page 20: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

View of the World

UniverseCampaign

R

Page 21: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What do we do?

Page 22: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Refineries

Page 23: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

“(Build a controller for a refinery process…)”

“…and start by building a model to predict the tower compositions.”

Page 24: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What have we got?

MV1

MV2

CV1

CV2

time

time

time

time

Page 25: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

What do we do?

Page 26: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Page 27: Becoming A Data Mining Machine Learning Practitioner

Copyright © Discovery Corps, Inc., 2009

Contact Info

• Tim Graettinger, Discovery Corps, Inc.– [email protected]

m– www.discoverycorpsinc.com