bay area apartment association & triad research & consulting, inc. 18 th annual tampa bay...
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Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.
18th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
“The Tampa Bay Rental Multi-Family Market : New Construction Returns”
Tampa Westshore Marriott HotelNovember 28th , 2012
Sponsored by:
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oct 2011
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,000
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oct-11
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
OCCUPANCY TRENDS
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
triad
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL PRICING TRENDS
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
2012-13 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT
UC/Leasing
2012
Planned –
2013 – 2014
Proposed –
ON-HOLD
MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units
Hills 11 3,333 19 3,328 3 640
Pinellas 3 639 10 2,672 1 326
Pasco 2 558 5 1,963 2 540
Polk 0 0 1 240 0 0
Manatee 1 272 5 1,225 2 772
Sarasota 0 0 4 998 0 0
Bay Area 17 4,802 44 10,426 8 2,278
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
BAY AREA PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
PINELLAS PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
PASCO PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
POLK PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES
OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND
SUPPLY LACK OF SUPPLY – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION - CONTINUED SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING
INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS
CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES – - BETTER LOCATIONS – LESS COMMUTING – URBAN/SUBURBAN
THEORY METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY
CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDSHIL SUBURBAN LAND OPPS IN BRANDON, WESTCHASE & SOUTH COUNTY – ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTCHASE IN BRANDON & WESTSHORE & TAMPA PALMS & DOWNTOWN – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW
PIN CONS IN GATEWAY & URBAN ST PETE – RESTABILIZING, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW - LIMITED NEW SITES FOR CONS POTENTIAL
PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW
POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOWER OCC & FINANCING DIFFICULTIES & NO RENT GROWTH
MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 AT THIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY STRONG
SAR NEW CONST FINALLY RETURNING DWNTWN-NORTH PORT- UNIV PKWY – MARKET NOW IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE – OCC & RENT GROWTH MODERATE
GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURNING BUT SLOWED BY FINANCING – DEMAND CONTINUING TO GROW DUE TO DISTRESS SF & ECONOMIC TIMES - RECOVERY TO 94%-95% HAPPENING NOW – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - FINANCING THE CHALLENGE – PLAYERS W/$$ WILL PLAY – GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR 24-48 MONTHS
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
Sponsored by:
18th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.