MoneyBall

Why was Cinderella a poor baseball player?

Time Line of Events

The books chronological order is displayed.

Time Line Cont.

Bill James“When numbers acquire

the power of language they can become

anything language can become.”....“It is victory and defeat, which is all the idiot subconscious really understands.”Bill James 1978

The passionate spirit of questioning baseball statistics starts a movement and a small following of a diverse crowd which is key to the future.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Bill James Baseball Abstract

Bill James Methodology

Team P Win Lost A Win Loss

St. Louis 110-44 105-49

Pittsburgh 87-67 90-63

Cincinnati 81-73 89-65

Chicago 81-73 75-79

New York 66-88 67-87

Boston 68-86 65-89

Brooklyn 60-94 63-91

Philadelphia 63-91 61-92

P = Projected

A = Actual

Pct win * 154 Games/Season gives you projected.

A toolset is created to look at the performance of players so you can make decisions about them, like value and performance.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Bill James Baseball Abstract

Walter Haas Jr.Oakland

Athletics

Haas was the owner of the Oakland Athletics baseball club, acquiring the team from Charles O. Finley in August 1980 for less than $13 million.

Walter was a philanthropist who wanted to please Oakland by spending money.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

New Owner Walter Haas A’s Late

LLCNow Known As STATS LLC

Started off collecting data not otherwise collected.

Now offers analytical tools.

1980

The following of Bill James led to the development of the founding of STATS Incwhich collected new data.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Cranmer Founds Stats Inc

Sandy Alderson

• Became GM for A’s

1983

• Now GM for the Mets

• Marine Corps discipline

• Discovered Bill James

The culture of change is starting to begin but all the players need to be in the right place and time.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Sandy Alderson becomes GM, A’s

Billy Beane

Began Playing for the Mets in 1983

Story of winning…

Retired in 1990 from Oakland

Billy Beane Lost His wife, but never his ferocious need to win, he just transferred it from playing to making decisions about players.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Billy Beane playing for Mets: Billy Beane becomes A’s scout

Billy Beane

Becomes Asst: GM to Sandy Alderson in 1993 for Oakland

1990-1993 Time frame. “His job was to go out and find undervalued minor league players.” Alderson 1993

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Billy Beane becomes Asst. GM A’s

AVM Systems

Ken Mauriello and Jack Armbruster found AVM Systems 1994

“Looking at the places where stats don't tell the whole truth- or even lie about the situation”

Came up with a whole new method of recording data one step further than STATS Inc.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Mauriello and Armbruster found AVM Systems

Owner Walter Haas Dies

Steve Schott and Ken Hofmann become new owners.

Ownership of the Oakland Athletics

In 1995, he and partner Ken Hofmann purchased the Oakland Athletics from the Walter A. Haas, Jr. estate. Under their patronage, general manager Billy Beane's novel management

The new owners are going to run the A’s like a business and not a charity. Next piece is in place for change.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Owner Walter Haas Dies

Manager Changes 1995

Tony LaRussa Out Art Howe In

GM Alderson has successfully implemented a disciplined hitting system in the farming system that will now be implemented in the majors by Art Howe.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

LaRussa Leaves, Art Howe hired to represent front office

Alderson hitting Theory

• Minor Leagues

• On base percentage

• More Walks

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Now there is a disciplined hitting system in the minor leagues where Billy Beane can farm from players who are undervalued.

Alderson implemented his hitting theory

Crucial Change

Billy Beane GM for Oakland A's 1997

Filling the shoes

Billy is a great GM because he’s been a ball player and won’t be intimidated by other ball players, and can foster change. Doesn’t watch the games.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Billy Beane becomes GM Oakland A’s

Paul DePodesta

• Degree in Economics

• Passion for baseball

• Hired by Billy Beane from

Cleveland Indians 1998

• Hires AVM Systems

Now all the pieces are place to start making real change in the way players are drafted and decided upon, which all traces back to Bill James

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Billy Beane hires Paul DePodesta from Cleveland

STATs Inc Sold!

To Fox News Corp for 45M 1999

Now Known as STATS LLC,

Partially owned by Associated Press today

On the side, today STATS LLC is still used and provides value for decision making. Recently seen used taking data for basketball NCAA.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Stats Inc Sold to Fox News Corp 45 M

John William Henry II

Buys Florida Marlins 1999

Fantasy League

Reality Check

Now Owner of Boston

Could not implement real change because he did not have all the pieces set up for change. Avid Bill James follower.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

John Henry buys Florida Marlins

Results after 2 years of BB GMOakland Wins 87 Games! 1999

After 3 years- Oakland wins 91 Games and makes playoffs – 2000

After 4 years – Oakland wins 102 Games and makes playoffs – 2001

After 5 years – Oakland wins 103 Games and makes playoffs – 2002 20 game win record

After 6 years – Oakland wins 91 Games and makes the playoffs – 2003

The fruits of all the labor and discipline speaks for itself without even entire team buy in.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Oakland Fires AVM Systems in 2000, results are shown

Time Line Final

2003 to 2006 slump

2006 made playoffs and to 2012 slump

Made playoffs in 2012,2013,2014

There must be entire team buy in for the system to work. They are rebuilding again. Oakland makes stars.

1978 1980 1983 1990 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Oakland made playoffs

Conclusion

This system took 25 years to implement from Bill James analysis to Billy Beane as GM to see results in MLB.

The spirit of Bill James is what runs the Front Office of the Oakland A’s, how to improve constantly.

The spirit of Bill James led Billy Beane and Paul Depodesta to create an objective value system of players. (Win Shares extra slides)

This value system is used to make objective decisions about the players and what they are worth.

Thoughts

If this group obtains military data of any kind, we can do an analysis for it using our tools.

Military battles

Systems

Predictive Analysis

All we need is data and we can simulate anything. Show me the data!

Defense

Ken Mauriello and Jack Armbruster

Stock Market Like baseball had big data.

Calculate the value of stocks

Quantitative Analysis

Applied the same analysis to baseball.

“Looking at the places where stats don't tell the whole truth-or even lie about the situation”

Defense

AVM Systems 1994

– Redefining Baseball Statistics

New Method of data collection

– What is a double?

Hired by Paul Depodesta

Copied their methods of data collection

Used runs as a metric

Bill James

“I’d probably be a writer if there was no such thing as baseball, but since there is I can’t imagine writing about anything else.”

Developed a series of equations that fit the data in spare time. STATS Inc.

Bill James taught Beane the value of scoring runs/based his system off of this.

Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract 1978-2003 revised

Motivation “Adapt or die” (Movie, Gov Parallel)

Decision Making

With Defensive values used to rate players, you could decide why you should or should not pay a player more or less for defense, which was overpaid by millions.

Broke a player into their individual statistics like walks, singles, doubles, homeruns, pitches per plate appearance, and decided according to their budget, which single stat they could replace.

Methodology

Bill would take historical data and create a model to explain it.

Win Loss Prediction

Value System breakthrough for each individual player developed

Developed something called win shares

Goal, reduce analysis to one simple number which opens a plethora of other questions. DATA EXISTS!

Flavor of Bills method -1944

Team R OR Won-Lost

St. Louis 772 490 105-49

Pittsburgh 744 662 90-63

Cincinnati 573 537 89-65

Chicago 702 669 75-79

New York 682 773 67-87

Boston 593 674 65-89

Brooklyn 690 832 63-91

Philadelphia 539 658 61-92

154 Game Season

League Avg R 662

Marginal runs scored Avg 331

A Marginal Run is defined as any run scored by the team in excess of one-half the league average, or any run prevented (not allowed) by the team below the level of 1.5 times the league average.

Marginal Runs

Team MR

St. Louis 441

Pittsburgh 413

Cincinnati 242

Chicago 371

New York 351

Boston 262

Brooklyn 359

Philadelphia 208

Team MR MRS

St. Louis 441 503

Pittsburgh 413 331

Cincinnati 242 456

Chicago 371 324

New York 351 220

Boston 262 319

Brooklyn 359 161

Philadelphia 208 335

662 + 331 = 993993 – 490 = 503: For all rows

Continued Method

Project each teams winning by dividing the total by twice the league average of runs scored – 1324

Team MR MRS Total Pct

St. Louis 441 503 944 .713

Pittsburgh 413 331 744 .562

Cincinnati 242 456 698 .527

Chicago 371 324 695 .525

New York 351 220 571 .431

Boston 262 319 581 .439

Brooklyn 359 161 520 .393

Philadelphia 208 335 543 .410

The Subjective Element

1. Statistically undocumented portions of career

2. Inequality in competition

3. World Series Performance

4. Positive or Negative leadership

5.Clutch Performance

6. Special contributions

7. Defensive Value beyond win shares

The Approximate

Ballpark factor

So why is this a good method for figuring out win loss for a team during their season?

The offensive and defensive value of each player can be determined through win shares!

This leads to valuing the players.

Path Forward

What is it we are studying?

What should we model?

If there are problems with the modeled soldier, lets model our own soldier from the ground up.

Form questions

Answer questions with data.

Start playing with the data.