bart gotte future flock worskhop sam event 2012
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Bart Gotte Future Flock worskhop SAM Event 2012TRANSCRIPT
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Management in Onzekere Tijden
Working on Futures
Bart Götte | Founder FutureFlock*
@bartgotte
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About FutureFlock
Unfolding Business Futures
Foresight: Forewarned=Forearmed
Scenario’s
Trends
Fact Finding
Insights: Add Meaning
Interpretation
Cause – Effect
Overcome Bias
Impact: Business Models
Value Propositions
Service Concepts
Innovation
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Question
Today’s Life Expectancy of a newborn
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Life Expectancy NL
The Historic Knowledge Perspective
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
85 75 65 55 45 35 25
Life Expectancy NL is a linearity
Life Expectancy NL has increased 65% in 100 years
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Life Expectancy NL
…From a Wider Historic Perspective
Life Expectancy NL is a linearity
Life Expectancy NL has increased 65% in 100 years
7000BC 6000BC 5000BC 4000BC 3000BC 2000BC 1000BC 0 1000 2000
85 75 65 55 45 35 25 20
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Life Expectancy NL
The informed Now Perspective
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130
150
115
105
95
85
75
65
CBS 2011: “Tussen 2000 en 2010 is
de levensverwachting van
pasgeborenen sterk toegenomen.
Deze steeg voor mannen van 75,5 tot
78,8 jaar en voor vrouwen van 80,6 tot
82,7 jaar. “
Impact of Science
Genetics
Nanoech
Medical
Lifestyle
Impact of Catastrophe
SES Collapse
Resistance Bacteria
Lifestyle
+ uninformed (New Science)
What If We Will Be Centennials?
Impact on Retirement Funding?
Healthcare Costs?
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Futures, Vision, Strategy
The Suprise-Free Future Isn’t
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Futures, Vision, Strategy
Forecasts & Scenario’s
Hoge mate van voorspelbaarheid,
weinig onzekerheid, brede impact
Lage mate van voorspelbaarheid,
veel onzekerheid, smalle impact
Events
Trends
Structuren
tijd
Waarde
A
B
F
S
H
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In Sum
Scenario’s
Uncertainty X Impact The power of Relevance
Futures The power of multiple visions
Stakeholders The power of multiple actors
Analogy & Metaphors The power of Storytelling
Managerial Guidance Use of Management Models
Goal Generating Business Options
Identifying Robust Winners
Identifying Risk Aware Policy
Benefit Strategy = Fun, Creative, Distinctive
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Unfolding Business Perspectives