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Bank of America Merrill LynchBanking & Insurance CEO Conference1 October 2009, London
Erste Group –Consistent strategy: focus on retail business in CEEAndreas Treichl, Chief Executive Officer
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London2
Disclaimer –Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements
− THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLYVERIFIED AND NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IS MADE ASTO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESSOR CORRECTNESS OF THIS INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN.
− CERTAIN STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE STATEMENTS OF FUTUREEXPECTATIONS AND OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE BASED ONMANAGEMENT’S CURRENT VIEWS AND ASSUMPTIONS AND INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWNRISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OREVENTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IN SUCHSTATEMENTS.
− NONE OF ERSTE GROUP OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVESSHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSSHOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENT OR OTHERWISEARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT.
− THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE ORSUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SHARES AND NEITHER IT NOR ANY PART OF IT SHALL FORM THE BASISOF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENTWHATSOEVER.
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London3
Presentation topics
−Erste Group in the region
−Sound, long-term fundamentals
−Conclusion
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London4
Percentage numbers refer to market shares
4
Erste Group in the region –Overview of key facts
Indirect presence
Clients: 0.1m
Ukraine
Retail loans: 1.7%Retail dep.: 0.2%
Branches: 135
Clients: 4.6m
Romania
Retail loans: 20.8%Retail dep.: 25.2%
Branches: 652
Clients: 0.2m
Serbia
Retail loans: 3.4%Retail dep.: 2.4%
Branches: 73
Clients: 3.0m
Austria
Retail loans: 19.1%
Retail dep.: 19.1%
Branches: 1,061
Clients: 0.7m
Croatia
Retail loans: 12.6%
Retail dep.: 12.3%Branches: 122
Clients: 5.3m
Czech Republic
Retail loans: 29.0%Retail dep.: 30.9%
Branches: 652
Clients: 2.6m
Slovakia
Retail loans: 24.8%Retail dep.: 28.5%
Branches: 271
Clients: 0.8m
Hungary
Retail loans: 12.8%Retail dep.: 6.2%
Branches: 203Total population: 120m
Bankable population: 92m
EG customers: 17.3m
Key market stats
EU resident customers: 16.2m
Non-EU or non-EU candidate country
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London5
Erste Group in the region –Overview of macro trends
− CEE economies expected to contract in 2009 butintensity of macro pressure is easing− First signs of stabilisation, supported by global
stabilisation packages− Rebound expected in 2010
− Consumer confidence on the rise− Gradual improvement in CZ, RO, HU and SK
− Improving current account balances− Romanian C/A fully covered by FDIs
− Fiscal discipline to continue− Low level of public debt
− Increasing focus on fundamentals− Private capital has started to flow back into the
region− CEE production more competitive− Lower levels of consumer debt− Unsaturated markets
Source: Eurostat, Erste Group Research
Current account balance outlook for CEE
-4.7
%
-3.2
%
-4.4
%
-5.1
%
-4.2
%
-3.0
%
0.8%
-1.4
%
-5.3
%
0.9%
-1.6
%
-3.1
%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%
Austria CzechRepublic
Romania Slovakia Hungary Croatia
2009e 2010e
Real GDP growth outlook for CEE
0.5%
1.9%
0.2%
2.6%
0.3%
0.2%
-8.0
%
-5.5
%
-6.2
%
-3.4
%
-4.9
%
-4.8
%
-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%
Austria CzechRepublic
Romania Slovakia Hungary Croatia
2009e 2010e
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London6
Erste Group in the region –Growth opportunities remain in place
USA figures do not include money market funds; including these, deposit penetration would be 54%
43%
69%
39%
16%
34%
24%
41%
97%
20%
29%
19%
45%
23%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
USA Austria CzechRep
Romania Slovakia Hungary Croatia
Household deposits/GDP Household loans/GDP
Financial intermediation in the US and CEE (2008)
Household deposits and loans to GDP
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London7
Erste Group in the region –Overview of retail markets
− Retail banking in underpenetrated markets doesnot fully correlate with GDP performance− Average client – especially the ones with housing
loans - does not represent average in society− CEE growth rates differ significantly from each
other− Austria: single digit growth rates maintained
− Loan market growth rates down from high levels− More responsible lending policies− Young markets where slow down of growth would
have been natural without the crisis− FX lending (mainly EUR) in some countries still
popular due to high local interest rates
− Deposit markets impacted by new circumstances− Banks’ focus has turned to deposit collection− Outflow from investment funds− Slovakia: introduction of EUR
Retail deposit market growth rates (yoy)
10%
52%
7%12% 23
%
47%
14%
12%
11% 20% 37
%
15%
2%11%7%
14%8% 7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
Austria CzechRep
Romania Slovakia Hungary Croatia
2007 2008 2009 H1
Retail loan market growth rates (yoy)
33%
82%
24%
18%
20% 39
%
25%
31%
12%
2% 15%
15%
17%
25%
3%28%6% 6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Austria CzechRep
Romania Slovakia Hungary Croatia
2007 2008 2009 H1
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London8
Presentation topics
−Erste Group in the region
−Sound, long-term fundamentals
−Conclusion
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London99
Strength in post-provision profit generation –Improved risk absorption capacity through the crisis
3-year pre- vs post-provision profit history
586 597 573 610 732 761 731 703 804 839 938
(108) (128) (111) (97) (119) (163) (221) (218)(469) (370)
(522)
478 468 463 514 614 597 510 484334
468 416
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09
in E
UR
mill
ion
Pre-provision profit (operating profit) Risk provisions Post-provision profit
US real estate and financial crisis Economic crisis
3-year pre- versus post-provision profit history
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London10
Risk costs and asset quality –Higher risk costs offset by higher margins
− Risk costs have stayed in line with expectationsreflecting the economic conditions, while…
− … margins improved gradually− Reflecting repricing ability in existing business…− …and higher margin new business
− NPL ratios have increased but remain at amanageable level− NPLs in Austria higher than in CEE due to
methodological differences− NPL development showed significant differences within
CEE also driven mainly by business, level of FX lendingalong with currency movements
− NPL coverage (ex collateral) at 55.5%− Decrease in NPL coverage mainly driven by CEE− Including collateral ratio remained above 100% in CEE
Net interest margin vs risk costs
2.73% 2.77% 2.84% 2.86% 2.92%
0.66% 0.67% 0.89%1.17%
1.41%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
1-6 08 1-9 08 2008 1-3 09 1-6 09
Net interest margin Risk costs
Group NPL ratio vs group NPL coverage
2.4% 2.5%2.9%
3.3%3.6%
68% 66% 62% 58% 55%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 090%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
NPL ratio NPL coverage
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London1111
Solid liquidity and funding position –Retail funding supports sustainable growth
Loan vs deposit development
8097
114126 128
7391 100 109 113
112% 114% 115%107% 113%
0
40
80
120
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 Jun 09
in E
UR
bill
ion
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
Loans and advances to customers Customer deposits Loan/deposit ratio
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London12
Improving capital position –Tier 1 & core tier 1 ratio strengthened despite crisis
Major capital ratios at Erste Group
6.8%
6.4%6.2%
7.0% 7.0% 6.9%6.6%
7.2%
7.8%
8.4%
6.0%5.7%
5.5%
6.2% 6.2% 6.2%5.9%
6.4%
7.0%
7.6%
4.8%4.5% 4.4%
5.1% 5.1% 5.2%4.9%
5.3%
5.9%
6.6%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09
Reported Tier 1 ratioTier 1 ratio (adj. for market & op risk)Core Tier 1 ratio (adj. for market & op risk, hybrid cap)
Annual retained earnings added, once audited (year-end)
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London13
Presentation topics
−Erste Group in the region
−Sound, long-term fundamentals
−Conclusion
BoA-ML Banking & InsuranceCEO Conference
1 October 2009London14
Conclusion –Our strengths considerably outweigh the weaknesses
−Our key strengths:− Superior retail business model in the past and future growth engine of Europe− AT, CZ, SK, RO & HU comprise 98% of our business and we enjoy a 25% client share
− Superior manageability thanks to operating in a compact region− Superior loan/deposit ratio with over 80% of deposits coming from retail…−…resulting in low cost and long-term funding base
−Our weaknesses:− Outposts in Ukraine and Serbia with potentially higher risks – small in size− Currency risks, inc FX lending – already scaled back− In our view justified, but compared to peers low capitalisation – strengthened by
participation capital issuance− Regulatory risks
−We believe we have an excellent risk/return profile and superior long-termgrowth capacity