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Bahrain’s Initial Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Volume I: Main Summary Report Kingdom of Bahrain General Commission for the Protection of Marine Resources, Environment & Wildlife 0DUFK

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  • Bahrain’sInitial Communications to the United

    Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change

    Volume I: Main Summary Report

    Kingdom of BahrainGeneral Commission for the Protection of Marine

    Resources, Environment & Wildlife

    ���������

  • March� � � �

    ii

    Ac k now ledgm ent s

    The Preparation of the initial communication was supported and funded by the GlobalEnvironment Facility and facilitated by the UNEP coordination office in Kenya. Wegratefully acknowledge their support.

    We also thank all the institutions, departments and private sector organization inBahrain, which provided us the necessary inputs and contributions toward thefinalization of this report.

    Finally, I would like to extend a special thanks and acknowledgement to the variousproject teams who were responsible for the preparation of all the technical reports.

    __________________________

    Eng. Zahwa M Al Kuwari

    Project Coordinator

    Director of Assessment and Planning

    General Directorate for the Protection of Environment and Wildlife

    Manama, Bahrain

    ����������

  • March� � � �

    iii

    Prefac e

    ������������������������������������������������������������������������� �Convention on Climate Change at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June�!!�"�� ��� ���� ������������ ���� �#����������� ���������������������� ������� ������������ �$�����������%����&����!!�"

    At the time of preparation of National Communications, Bahrain has been engaged indiscussions about ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, which is planned for imminentratification.

    The Kingdom of Bahrain is very pleased to present this initial National Communicationin fulfillment and its obligations towards as a Party to the Framework Convention, andsoon to the Kyoto Protocol.

    ________________________

    Prof. Ismail M. Al Madani

    Director General & Vice President

    General Directorate for the Protection of Environment and Wildlife

    Manama, Bahrain

    ����������

  • March� � � �

    iv

    Cont r ibut or s

    Project Coordinators

    Dr. Osama A. ElKholi, Late H.H. Sheikh Issa bin Salman AlKhalifa Chair and Director,Technology Management Program, Arabian Gulf University

    Dr. Waleed K. Zubari, Head Sphere of Technological Studies, College of GraduateStudies, Arabian Gulf University

    Volume I: Main Summary Report

    ����������������������������������������������������

    Dr. Anwar Shaikh_ul_Din, Desert and Arid Zones Sciences Program, Arabian GulfUniversity

    ������������������������������

    Dr. Anwar Shaikh-ul-Din (study supervisor), Desert and Arid Zones Sciences Program,Arabian Gulf University

    Dr. Osama A. El-Kholy (study coordinator), H. H. Sheikh Issa bin Salman Al-KhalifaChair and Director, Technology Management Programme, Arabian Gulf University

    Eng. (Ms) Zahwa Al-Kuwari,, Ministry of Housing Municipality and Environment –Environmental Affairs

    Ms. Saba Kazhem Al-Asfour, Ministry of Agriculture and Municipalities�

    Mr. Abdel-Mohsen Al-Mahmoud, Ministry of Housing Municipality and Environment –Environmental Affairs

    Mr. Ali Jassem Al-Hasabi, Ministry of Housing Municipality and Environment –Environmental Affairs

    �������� �!������"��������#���������#���������

    Ms. Sabah Al-Jenied, Desert and Arid Zone Science Program, Arabian Gulf University

    Dr. Mohammad S. Abido, Desert and Arid Zone Science Program, Arabian GulfUniversity

    ��������$����������������%���������������

    Dr. Talat A. Diab (Study Supervisor) Late, Director, Technology ManagementPrograom, Arabian Gulf Universit

    Dr. Haytham Al-Qahtani (Team Leader) Ministry of Trade and Industry, Kingdom ofBahrain

    Eng. Ahmed Abdrabbo (Study Consultant), Climate Change Unit, EgyptianEnvironmental Affairs

  • March� � � �

    v

    Abdulhussein Aly Hussain, Ahmed Mansour Al_Ali Co. Kingdom of Bahrain.

    Ms. Luma Al_Mahrous, Ministry of Housing Municipality and Environment –Environmental Affairs

    ��������&�'�����������(����)�"���#*�������

    Dr. Waleed K. Zubari, Desert and Arid Zones Sciences Program, Arabian GulfUniversity

    Dr. Asma A. AbaHussain, Desert and Arid Zones Sciences Program, Arabian GulfUniversity

    Dr. Anwar Shaikh_ul_Din, Desert and Arid Zones Sciences Program, Arabian GulfUniversity

    Mr. Nader A. Mousa, Desert and Arid Zones Sciences Program, Arabian Gulf University

    Volume II: Technical AnnexesAll the individuals noted in the individual chapters for Volume I were part of technical teamsthat developed the background technical reports in the Annexes found in the second Volume ofthis National Communication.

  • March� � � �

    vi

    Table of Cont ent spage

    Ac k now ledgm ent s ........................................................................................ iiPrefac e ................................................................................................................... iiiCont r ibut ors ....................................................................................................... ivLis t of Tab les .................................................................................................. viiiLis t of Figures ................................................................................................ viiiLis t of Box es ................................................................................................... viiiLis t of Abbrevia t ions ................................................................................. ix� National Circumstances ..............................................................................

    ��� Geographic Profile .................................................................................................. ������ Land use ......................................................................................................������ Ecosystems..................................................................................................�

    ��� Climatic Profile ....................................................................................................... ���� Water Resources...................................................................................................... ���� Population and Demographic Trends...................................................................... ���� Human Health ......................................................................................................... ���� General Economic Profile ....................................................................................... ���� Energy ..................................................................................................................... ��� Transportation ......................................................................................................... �� Industry.................................................................................................................... ���� Agriculture ..............................................................................................................

    ���� Waste.......................................................................................................................

    ���� Environmental Education and Outreach ............................................................... ��

    � Greenhouse Gas Inventory.......................................................................

    ��� Introduction ........................................................................................................... ����� Methodology and Data Used................................................................................. ��

    ����� Methods.....................................................................................................������� Data Sources, Coverage, and Reliability...................................................������� Uncertainties..............................................................................................������� Assumptions and Justifications .................................................................��

    ��� Energy Sector Inventory........................................................................................ ����� Industrial Processes Inventory .............................................................................. ����� Agricultural Sector Inventory................................................................................ ����� Land Use change and Forestry Inventory ............................................................. ��

  • March� � � �

    vii

    ��� Waste Management Inventory .............................................................................. ���� Summary of Inventory Results.............................................................................. ���� Recommendations for Enhancing the Quality of Bahrain’s GHG Inventory ....... ��

    � Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment ..........................................���� Introduction ........................................................................................................... ����� Approach ............................................................................................................... ��

    ����� Baseline Scenario ......................................................................................������� Climate Change Scenarios ........................................................................�

    ��� Sea Level Rise Impacts ......................................................................................... ������ Inundation Levels......................................................................................������ Impacts on Human Settlements and Infrastructure ...................................�

    ����� Impacts on Agriculture..............................................................................�

    ����� Impacts on Corals and Fishing Industry....................................................�

    ����� Impacts on Mangrove and Salt Marshes ...................................................������� Impacts on Coastal Erosion.......................................................................������� Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources............................................��

    ��� Adaptation Action Plan ......................................................................................... ������� Policy Mainstreaming Initiatives ..............................................................������� Ecosystem Protection Initiatives ...............................................................��

    � Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Initiatives ................................................����� Business-as-Usual GHG Emissions in Bahrain .................................................... ����� Mitigation Initiatives Analyzed............................................................................. ��

    ����� Energy Efficiency of Power Generation ...................................................������� Renewable Energy Systems for Power Supply: ........................................������� Demand Side Efficiency Measures ...........................................................��

    ��� Other Mitigation Initiatives Considered................................................................ ������� Road Traffic Management And Control ...................................................������� Interconnection Of The Electric Transmission Grid .................................������� Landfill Gas And Utilization In Power Generation ..................................��

    ��� Impact of Mitigation Initiatives............................................................................. ����� Mitigation Action Plan.......................................................................................... ��

    � Strategy to Raise Public Awareness ......................................................���� Context for Action................................................................................................. �

    ��� Strategic Objectives and Approach....................................................................... �

    ��� Civil Society Engagement..................................................................................... ����� Strengthen National Capacity................................................................................ ����� Encourage Community-based Initiatives .............................................................. ��

    + List of References .......................................................................................��

  • March� � � �

    viii

    Lis t of Tablespage

    ������������������������������������������������ ����!�

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    Lis t of Figurespage

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    /�%���������1�%��%���%������Western Reef Heron ���

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    /�%���������#9#��&�$$���$����� ����$���$$-as-usual scenario ��

    /�%���������#9#��&�$$���$����� ����$���$$-as-usual and Mitigation scenarios ��

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  • March� � � �

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    Lis t of Abbrev iat ionsAGU Arabian Gulf UniversityCFL Compact florescent lightCH � MethaneCC climate changeCO Carbon monoxideCO � Carbon dioxideCSC Cost of saved carbonCSO Central Statistical OfficeDSM Demand Side ManagementEA Environmental AffairsEF Emission FactorsEIA Energy Information AgencyESCWA Economic and Social

    Commission for West AsiaFAO Food and Agriculture

    OrganizationGCC Gulf Cooperation CouncilGDP Gross Domestic ProductGDPEW General Directorate for the

    Protection of Environmentand Wildlife

    GEF Global Environment FacilityGHGs Greenhouse GasesGg !��

    �grams) G

    GJ #�%5����$�!���

    Joules)GWh Gigawatt- ���$�!��

    �Watt-

    hours)GWP Global Warming PotentialHa HectareHFCs HydrofluorocarbonsIBA Important Bird AreaICZM Integrated coastal zone

    managementIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on

    Climate Changekm � Square kilometerKOB Kingdom of BahrainKSA Kingdom of Saudi ArabiakWh kilowatt- ����!��

    watt-

    hours)LPG Liquid petroleum gasm � Square meterMoWA Ministry of Works and

    AgricultureMW Megawatt

    NG Natural gasNGO Non-governmental

    organizationNMVOCs Non-methane volatile

    organic compoundsNOX Nitrous OxidesO&M Operation and maintenancePV PhotovoltaicSLR Sea Level RiseSO � Sulfur DioxideSOx Sulfur OxidesTAR Third Assessment ReporttC tones of carbonTOE Tonnes of oil equivalenttonne ��

    kilograms

    UNDP United Nations DevelopmentProgramme

    UNEP United Nations EnvironmentProgramme

    UNFCCC United Nations FrameworkConvention on ClimateChange

    V&A Vulnerability and Adaptation

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

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    � National Circumstances� ��+�������� ���'� ���� �,��%��������low-lying islands and shoals, is a nation ofdynamic social and ecological systems aswell as a plethora of accompanying climate-related challenges. In this chapter, thecountry’s main characteristics are outlinedin an attempt to provide readers with a senseof the context in which Bahrain’s climatechange challenges need to be seen.

    , Geographic ProfileThe total land area of the Kingdom of� ���� !0=�"� ��� �

    � *$� ����� ����square kilometers (km & ). It is located in theArabian Gulf stretching between latitudes��

    '��>�?������

    '���>?�������%�����$���

    '

    ��>)������'���>)��� �������,,��:�&���(�

    ���� @&� ��� ��$������� � �� �% �$�� ,����� ���the country is jabal Dukhan �� ����� ����meters above sea level.

    The capital city, Manama, is located on thelargest island, Bahrain, which accounts for

    ����� �� ,������ of the total area of thecountry. Other islands include Al Muharrah!�A���� ����� ���� ��"'� +��� � !�A"'�3&&�

    ?$$�� !�A"'� ?�� � +�� � !���A"� ���B��� �!����A"��� ��$��� ����� ����������$�9*�'� +*�� ��� �� ��� $&��� �$���$� !�A"��/�%���� ���� $ �*$� � , (sical map of thecountry.

    ����� Land use

    Land and freshwater resources in Bahrain,like many small islands, are subject tocompeting demands for urban development,agriculture, industry, and other uses. Thesetwo resources are vital for meeting basichuman needs, economic growth andimproved access to goods and services.

    The total land area of Bahrain has been$�����(������$��%�$������ �����>$�� ���% �land reclamation and dredging activities.Many sites along the northern andnortheastern coastal areas were dredged andreclaimed for industrial, recreational andresidential purposes. As a result, thecountry's total land area has increased from

    ���������@&

    &��������������������@&

    &in

    ������

    Although reclamation activities havesignificantly increased prime and suitableland for various development projects, theyincluded a host of adverse social, economicand environmental impacts. In an effort tolessen the adverse impacts associated withfuture reclamation efforts, discussions areunderway for Bahrain to adopt an integratedcoastal area management approach forstrategic planning.

    Due to rapid urban and industrialdevelopment, valuable agricultural land inBahrain has been increasingly lost. Arablelands have been converted to residentialareas as demand has continued to increasefor housing and recreational facilities.Moreover, high soil salinity resulting fromthe use of groundwater for irrigation has

    ���������������������������

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March " # # % �

    reduced the potential area that could be used���� ���,� ����������$� !/�='� �

    �"�� � ���present, these irrigated areas consist of bothannual crops and permanent tree-crops.Because of the low rainfall, poor soil andadverse climatic conditions, naturalvegetation cover is sparse and forests do notexist in Bahrain.

    ����� Ecosystems

    Natural vegetation is of limited extent and iscomposed mainly of mangrove plantations,desert ephemerals, and halophytes (Abbas,�

    "�� .�%����$� ��� �&,�������ecological functions in Bahrain forattenuating wave action, sheltering nativespecies of flora and fauna and reducingseawater turbidity. They grow naturally inseveral coastal areas, support a wide varietyof indigenous bird species, and are integralpart of local biodiversity.

    Local marine ecosystems are rich in fishstocks, sea grasses, and corals (Sheppard, et

    �'��

    �"��/����:&,��'�� ����������$,����$�of corals in the waters around Bahrain,which are nursery habitats for shrimp, crabs,and other sea creatures. Coral reefs thrive inthe harsh Bahraini environment of highwater temperatures, salinity levels andsedimentation. In addition, coastal saltmarshes are sensitive ecosystems thatcontain quite, a large variety of native plantspecies. These areas are used as feeding andbreeding sites for several kinds of birds andother species.

    The Hawar island chain, located abo��� ���km southeast of the main island of Bahrain!/�%���� ���"� �$� � $��$������ *������ecosystem area. The islands are home to theglobally threatened dugon Dugong dugon!/�%�������"����,�$$�$$���� ���$ ����*���$�that support a variety of fish and othermarine organisms. The islands are animportant breeding area for resident andmigrant sea birds and are internationallydesignated as an Important Bird Area (IBA).

    Within the Hawar chain, the islands ofRubud Al Gharbiyah and Rubud AshSharquiyah are breeding sites for theWestern Reef Heron (Egretta gularisschistacea) !/�%���� ���"� ��� *�������%�grounds for Slender Billed Gulls (Larusgenei) and Greater Flamingos(Phoenicopterus). They are also a staging,�$������&�%����*���$����:���������$����$�the locations of sensitive breeding sites,nesting sites, feeding areas, and migrationflyways for the islands.

    ,� Climatic ProfileBahrain’s climate is influenced by itslocation in a large arid zone, which extendsfrom the Sahara northeastwards across theArabian Peninsula, to the central Asiandeserts. The climate of Bahrain is further

    ��������������������������� !�����Western Reef Heron (bottom

    source: University of MichiganMuseum of zoology

    source: www.digimages.info/

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March " # # % �

    influenced by its proximity to tropical zonesand being situated within the Arabian Gulf,a virtually land-locked sea bordered by aridlandmasses. The predominant winds across

    the islands are northwesterly, locally knownas Shamal and have average speeds of over���@���$�

    ��"����ird activity in the Hawar island group

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

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    Bahrain has two seasons: a very hot summerand a relatively mild winter. During thesummer months, which extend from April toOctober, mean monthly temperature range���&� ����� ��� ����� ��%���$�

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March " # # % �

    By ����, the goal is another � million m&

    of desalinated seawater per year.

    ,$ Population and DemographicTrends

    Bahrain’s total population was just over ���� ��$��� ��� �

    �'� � �� (��� ��� � �� �$��official census. The country has experiencedlarge population growth over the years, withan annual national population growth of���A�,���(��� ���������%� � ��,��������-�

    �'� &@��%� ��� ���� ��� � �� �% �$�� ��� � �world. In fact, the total population has�����$��� $�:� ����� ��� ����� ���� � ��$���people since the first official national census*$��������������������

    Population growth in Bahrain is influencedby two significant factors. Growth of theindigenous population as social, health andeconomic conditions improve and the risingnumber of foreign laborers as demand fornew skills by various economic sectorsincreases. Behind the fast growth of both theBahraini and non-Bahraini population wasthe discovery of� ���� ��� ���'� ��� � ��investment of its revenues in a range ofnational development projects anddiversification of the economy.

    /�%���� ���� $�&&��D�$� ,�,������� %��*� �,�����$� ���� � ���� ���� � �� ,������ �

    �-�

    �� 4�� �

    �'� � �� ������ � �����population ��,��$������ ����� ��A� ��� � ��

    �����,�,������'����,,��%� ����������A��(��

    ��� �$� � �� �����&(� �����$������ ��&���for skilled labor increased, especially in theindustrial and service sectors, the non-Bahraini population increased significantly -���&���'��������

    ������&�$�����'��������

    '� �� �����$�� ��� ����� ��A'���� �&�$���A�,���(����

    Most of the population of Bahrain isconcentrated along coastal zonesparticularly in the north and northeasternparts of the main island Bahrain. Highpopulation densities -� ,,��:�&���(� ����persons/km

    '�����

    �������� ��%��������

    persons/km'� ��� �

    �� - characterize these

    areas. This is due in large part to historicallyhigh urbanization rates, which have been�����$��(��%�����������(��$��4�����'���A����the population resided in urban areas. This�����������$������������A��(��

    ��

    The overall (i.e., including native Bahrainiand non-Bahraini segments of the,�,������"� ������(� ���� ���� ���������$� ���years old and over in Bahrain was about�A� ��� �

    �'� � �� (��� �f the last censustaken. The overall literacy rate among males*$� �&�$�� �A'� ��� ����� �A� ����females. For the native Bahraini population,literacy rate are quite high, ranging from

    ����� �A� ���� &��$� ��� ��A� &��%�females). More recent estimates indicatethat the literacy rate continues to improvefor the overall Bahraini population,�����$��%������������������A�����

    ��!A�

    &��%�� ��&���,�,�����������A�&��%�the female population).

    ,& Human Health����� �:,�����(� �����$��� ���&� ��� (��$�during the� ,������ ���-���'� ��� ��� (��$������%� ���-���'� ��� ��� ��� ��� (��$������%� � �� ,������ �

    �-�

    �'� �� �:��������indicator of national achievements in theprovision of health care services. Thepopulation of Bahrain is relatively young.� ���

    �� ���$�$� ��$�lts showed that about

    ���������*� �+���������,��&�

    --

    (

    ) ( (

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    Visiting laborers

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  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March " # # % �

    ��A����� ��,�,�������*$�(���%���� ����'�

    ��� ��A� ���*���� � �� %�$� ��� ��� ��� ����=��(� �A� ��� � �� ,�,������� *$� ����� ���years of age.

    ,+ General Economic ProfileBahrain is governed by a constitutionalhereditary monarchy, and is compo$���������municipalities. Prior to the discovery of oilin the early thirties the economy of Bahrainwas dependent on pearl fishing, agricultureand regional trade. Since then, the majorengine of economic growth in Bahrain hasbeen the oil and natural gas industry.

    The country gained its independence in����� + ����(� ����*��'� $����-economicand restructuring of the economy took placeat a rapid pace, boosted by the growingproduction of oil and gas and rising nationalrevenues as oil prices increased in the world&�@��'� ,��������(� ����� ���������$�� ���the economic risks associated with oil pricevolatility, sustained policy initiatives wereundertaken to diversify the nationaleconomy as a risk-hedging strategy.Industrialization became a focus, togetherwith efforts to establish Bahrain as aninternational financial and service centerlocated in the heart of the Middle East.

    The Bahraini economy has shown steady%��*� � ����� � �� �

    �-�

    �� ,������ !$���/�%���� ���"�� � �� ���$� ��� %��*� � �����%�earlier ,�����$���-�

    ���:,���������*�����������$�� 4�� ��������� ���&�����,������� ����

    �� ��� ���� ,������� �(� �

    �'� ��� �������:������� �� ,������� ��� ���%�� �����%� � ��,�������

    �-�

    ���-����,������������&����%��� ���&� � ��*� ��� ����� 3+E�'���� ����

    �� �����%� � year of slows economic%��*� '����� �% ���������E'������

    ��

    The continued diversification of theBahraini economy has been evident during� �� �

    �;$�� � ���� ��� ����� &5��� $�����$'�* �� � ��,��$���� ����(� �A� ��� ������(� ���Bahraini economy. In addition to the oil &gas sector, these are trade, financial

    services, manufacturing, and government$������$���$�����$���������/�%�������'�� ������

    ���%$�$�����;$�$ ��������� ��,�������

    �-�

    �� $� ����� ��&,����� ��� � �� ��� � ��other sectors. Overall, the oil sector (mining

    ���7���(��%����/�%����������,��$���$��������A���� ������� �����&��� ������(� ����� � �$�period - even showing a slight decrease by�

    ��– reflecting deliberate national policiesof encouraging investments outside the oilsector in order to build a more diversifiedand resilient economy.

    This is particularly evident in themanufacturing sector whose share of GDP$���(� �����$��� ���&� ��A� ��� �

    �� ���

    �&�$����A��(��

    ���� ��$ ��������������$������$'� * �� � *$� ����� ��A� ,������� ����

    �'� $� �����$��� $��% ��(� ��� �A� ����

    ��� #�����&���� $������$� ������������

    ����� �A� ��� �

    �� ��� ��A� ��� �

    �'�indicating an expansion of the role playedby the private sector in providing some ofthe services traditionally provided by thepublic sector.

    ��������'��.�*�����/�����������%&�

    -'

    '

    (

    )

    ��

    � � * ' ( +

    GD

    P(b

    illio

    nU

    S$

    per

    year

    )

    *

    (

    !

    ��

    *����� ����������������)012�� ���!

    GDP

    Per capita income

    Source: C�����������������������������

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March " # # % �

    ,- EnergyThe turning point in the economic andsocial history of Bahrain was the discovery��� ���� ��� ����� � +����� � ��'� ������ ����production, processing, distribution andconsumption became major economicactivities and significant sources of nationalincome. Production of crude oil continues toincrease to meet the growing demand forenergy by all sectors of the economy. Mostlocal crude production is consumed locallyin refined oil products.

    Production of crude oil reached a peak of����� &������� �����$� ��� �'� �ropping to�����&�����������

    ��������������%�������,�slightly after that. Large quantities of crudeare also imported from Saudi Arabia forprocessing in Bahraini refineries andeventual export to international markets.

    Bahrain’s crude oil refining capacity hassteadily increased over the past decades.The vast majority of refined oil products,����� �A'� ��� �:,������ ��� ������������&�@��$�!$���/�%������"�

    In recent years, natural gas has becomemore widely used, with consumption rising��� ���&������� ������ ����� ,��� �(� ��� �

    ��and continuing to increase since then. Mostof the natural gas consumed in Bahrain isused to generate electricity and to satisfyheat demand from the manufacturingindustries, mostly in the aluminum industry.

    Electric power generation has shown steadyincrease significantly over the years.Generated electricity increased by almost�A� ���*���� �

    � ��� �

    '� !����'� ���&��'���� ��� �'��� #2 "�� � �� ��$������available electric generating capacity in� ��������

    ��*$����.2�����onsistsof four publicly owned power stations (i.e.,Manama, Muharraq, Riffa and Sitra). Theannual output from these plants typically

    ������� ���� ����� �A� ��� ����� ����������(�%�������'� *�� � � �� ��&������ !��A"�imported from the power station of thealuminum smelting plant (ALBA).

    The demand for electricity is relatively highcompared to the region, as well as comparedto the world.. Average annual per capitaelectricity consumption increased from�'����@2 � ����

    �� ����'���@2 � ����

    �'�an overall incre$�� ��� �A� !��� ��AF(��"�increase during the same period. Totalgeneration to satisfy rising industrial,household, and other demand increased���&��'����#2 �����

    ������'�������

    '�

    �� ������� �����$�� ��� �A� !��� ��A� ,���year) Most of the electricity consumed is inthe household sector which accounts for

    ����� ��A� ��� ����� ����������(� ��&����/�%�������$�&&��D�$�������������$�&,�����patterns.

    ������������3������������%������%����%&�

    �-

    '

    & '

    ( & '

    ) & '

    * & '

    + & '

    , & & '

    , / / & , / / , , / / ( , / / 3 , / / ) , / / 5 , / / *

    Sha

    reof

    econ

    omy

    (%)

    Oil & gas ManufacturingFinancial services TradeGovernment Services

    �������������������������������������������

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March " # # %

    ,. TransportationRapid industrial and urban development hasbeen accompanied by rapid increases in thenumber of private and public cars andservice vehicles, particularly within theurban areas, causing problems of congestionand increased air pollutant emissions.Vehicle ownership has increased by about���A� ,��� (��� ����� � �� ,������ �

    �-�

    �'����&� ���� ��� ��� � �usand vehicles. It isexpected that the number of cars per person*������������������$�����&���$������������������

    ���

    Fuel consumption has risen less rapidly thanvehicle ownership thanks in part to risingfuel economies. Total fuel consumed inpersonal� ��$� ��$�� ��� �� &������� �����$� ����

    �� !���� &������� �����$� ���� ���$��G� ���million liters for gasoline), an annual%��*� � ���� ��� ����� ���A��=���� � �$� $&��period, the annual rate of fuel economy�&,����&���� *$� ���A�� 9�*����'� ���Bahrain the average fuel economy for thepersonal vehicle stock was low, ranging���&��������������$�,�������@&�����

    ��������������$�,�������@&�����

    ���

    ,/ IndustryThe industrial base in Bahrain comprises anumber of industries, some mature, othersonly recently developed. Aluminummanufacturing is one of the main

    contributors to national wealth inBahrain, following closely after oil andnatural gas production. AluminumBahrain (ALBA), the nationalaluminum company produces about���'���� �����$� ��� ��&���&� ,��� (����Bahrain is a large consumer of petrolcoke in the aluminum industry,���$�&��%� ����� ���'���� �����$� ���,��������@������

    ���

    The chemical industry in Bahrainincludes chemical industries, asphaltproduction, and cement production.There are two asphalt roofing plants in

    Bahrain (Arabian Company for ChemicalProducts and Bahrain Membrane Plant),,�������%� � ��&������ �'���� �����$� ���asphalt roofing materials per year. There arethree plants producing road-surfacingasphalt (Bahrain Asphalt Co., United GulfAsphalt and Construction, and Eastern Co.),,�������%� � ��&������ ���'��� �����$��There is only one cement Packing Factory���� ���'�,�������%���������'���������$�per year

    The main food processing industries inBahrain include bread, poultry, cakes,biscuits, and animal feeds. A variety ofgoods, including flours, cakes and biscuits

    ���������4+��������5��%�� ������%&�

    ��6�

    &

    ' ( & & &

    ) ( & & &

    * ( & & &

    + ( & & &

    , . . & , . . .

    Ele

    ctri

    city

    Use

    (GW

    h)

    Commercial & AgriculturalHouseholdIndustry

    0 1 2 4 5kWh/yr

    perperson4 1 2 2 8

    kWh/yrper

    person

    ��������������������������������������

    ��������-�7���������+� ������%&�

    �������%���%����tonnes of oil equivalent)

    Exp

    orte

    d

    9:;< =

    >? @ABCD E

    Lubricants

    Jet Fuel

    GasolineNaphtha

    KeroseneDiesel

    Others

    LocallymarketedproductsF G H J

    AsphaltLPG

    Fuel Oil

    Source: Oil Directorate, Ministry of Oil & Industry

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March � � � �

    production are produced by the BahrainFlour Mills Co, the national bakerycompany.

    ,0 AgricultureArable and permanent crop areas totaled

    �����'���� ��������'�����������A����� ��total land area of the country (Al-Madani,����"�� .�$�� ��� � �� %���������� D���$� ���located along the western coast of Bahrainisland. Major commercial crops include datepalms, assorted vegetables, and foddercrops.

    Agriculture in Bahrain faces a number ofchallenges rendering it a relatively minorsector with currently little contributiontowards national food self-sufficiency. Itrepresents a small share of national GDP*�� ����(��A����� �� �������������%%������agricultural activities. The contribution ofthis sector (including fisheries and poultry)*$��������A�����

    ��������������:������A��������

    ����

    The agricultural sector in Bahrain usesirrigation extensively and consumes adisproportionately high share of scarcewater resources, relative to its share of#1-�� 4�� �

    '� *���� �$�� ���� %����������

    ��������$� ��������� ���� ����� ��A���� �����available water in Bahrain. Moreover,agricultural activities are constrained bypoor soils, limited supply of capital andskilled manpower and continued loss ofagricultural land for urban, industrial,recreational and other services development.

    Agricultural activities are undertaken on���% �(� �A� ��� � �� ����� ���� ��� ��� � ��country. Total cultivated land area�����$��� ���&� �'��� �����$� ! "� ����

    �� ��� �'���� � ��� �

    �� ���continued at essentially the same level��� �

    �� ��� �

    �� !$��� ����� ���"��Livestock has not changed much overthe last few years.

    , Waste

    The high rates of economic growth duringthe last four decades have been associatedwith rapid growth in consumption, andincreasing rates of municipal solid wasteproduction. Annual levels of solid waste are

    ����� ���'��� �����$�� � 1��(� ,��� �,���municipal solid waste generation is about���� @%F,��$��� ��� ��� @%F,��$��� �����(��The content of the waste is mostly percentorganic matter with small fraction of paper,plastics, glass, metals, and other materials.

    Management of municipal solid waste isrelatively efficient in Bahrain. Some ofwaste is recycled, while the remainder isdisposed of in sanitary landfills. The highorganic matter content in the wasteprompted the private sector to establish acomposting plant that produces compostfertilizers and soil conditioners.

    Management of municipal waste effluentshas evolved considerably in Bahrain. During� �� ���$� ��� ���$'� � ���� ��$������urban sewerage networks and sewagetreatment facilities to handle the increasingvolume of wastewater generated fromdomestic, commercial and industrial uses. In���'�� ��&����������$����.�&����Muharraq were provided with sewerage$($��&$������� ����������

    �'�,,��:�&���(���'���� �� �����$� *���� ���������� ��� � ��main sewage pipeline system. The areasprovided with pipeline networks isincreasing every year, with the aim that by������������(�����nhabited areas of Bahrainwill be connected.

    Wastewater treatment methods used inBahrain are primary, secondary and tertiary

    8�9+�����#���������+��$�9+��������+��$����:����������������

    �-

    '!

    YearTotal Area

    (Km�)

    Cultivableland (ha)

    Cultivatedland (ha)

    �!!� (!* '��� *�����!!� (! )���� *�!���!!� (! !�*�� '�����!!* +�( !�+�� '�����!!' +�( ���'�� '�����!! +�+ ������ '����!!( +�+ ������ '��*�

    Source: ��� ��������� � ���� ���!

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

    March " # # % ��

    treatment. The recycled water is usedmainly to irrigate gardens, fodder crops andhighway landscaping. Sludge is producedin both primary and secondary treatmentplants. It is treated before being recycled asa soil conditioner used on the Ministry ofWorks and Agriculture farms. The methodof wastewater handling in Bahrain is anaerobic system, which produces somemethane (CH & ) because of the poormanagement of the aerobic systems.

    Lastly, major industries, though few innumber, produce relatively large quantitiesof liquid waste. These includepetrochemical industries which produces���� .&

    '/year, the petroleum industry

    whi� � ,������$� ��� .&'/year and power

    $�����$� * �� � ,������� ����� ���� .&'

    /year. Most of these amounts are treated atthe primary level, then mixed with thethermal effluents, which are dischargeddirectly to the sea. Though large amountsof BOD characterize industrial wasteeffluents.

    ,� Environmental Education andOutreach

    Environmental awareness is increasingamong various sectors of Bahraini society,thanks in part to increasing numbers of non-governmental organizations (NGOs).Environmental education is spreading andthere are activities and environmentalcourses being incorporated in the variousdepartments’ curricula of Universities andcolleges. Presently, at least two masterprograms in Environmental managementand Sustainable Development are beingoffered by the University of Bahrain andArabian Gulf University.

    However, climate change and its relatedimpacts have not yet publicly recognized asa national threat. Partly, this is due to ashortage in financial and human resources inthe various responsible agencies. Forexample, the Bahrain Center for Scientific

    Research, which is one of the leadinginstitutes for research and training inresource development and marine studies,lacks required financial resources toundertake a sustained research agendarelated to sea level rise issues. In thiscontext, updating knowledge on climatechange in educational institutions andbuilding public awareness is a challenge andnew endeavor for concerned authorities andinstitutes in Bahrain.

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � s Inventory

    March � � � ��

    � Greenhouse Gas Inventory�, IntroductionAccording to the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) assessmentreports, there has been a discernable humaninfluence on the global climate. Humanactivities in pursuit of development, such asfuel combustion, industrial processing,intensive agriculture, land-use change andforest utilization, have caused a substantialincrease in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)emissions into the atmosphere, whichcontribute to climate change. Major GHGemissions linked to such activities includecarbon dioxide (CO ! ), methane (CH " ),nitrous oxide (N ! O).

    The Kingdom of Bahrain has undertaken, as��� �

    �'� � �� �$@� ��� ��&,����%� ��$� ���$��inventory of greenhouse gas emissions.These activities will create a GHG emissionprofile for Bahrain that could be used in thelarger global context, will enable Bahrain tocomply with its obligations under the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC), and will assist thenation in formulating climate sensitivedevelopment goals and informed mitigationand adaptation policies.

    The national GHG inventory was developed�$��%� � �� ����$��� 4-

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � s Inventory

    March � � � � ��

    IPCC default values and conversioncoefficients.

    ����� Uncertainties

    Uncertainties are inherent in any estimate ofnational emissions. Commonly,uncertainties and limitations arise fromdifferent interpretations of source/sinkcategories, use of average values (especiallydefault emission factors), and incompletescientific understanding of the basic GHGemission and removal processes. Some ofthe sector-specific uncertainties that wereencountered by the national inventory teamare elaborated in the sections that follow.

    ����" Assumptions and Justifications

    A number of assumptions were made in theapplication of the methodology and defaultdata to the Bahraini context. Similarly,assumptions were made in order to justifythe use of locally derived values, intended torepresent the explicit local conditions ofBahrain as outlined in the sections thatfollow.

    �, Energy Sector InventoryIn Bahrain, the only primary sources ofenergy are natural gas and refined oilproducts. There is virtually no use ofbiomass as a fuel source.

    )���%(����$�&��������%�� ���

    ����������(�(��� �$� �$��&���� ��� ��� ���� � ��$��� �B�������� �A� ��� � �$� &����� !��� �����thousand TJ) was in the form of natural gas,A�!���� ��$����B"����� �����&������������,�������&� ,������$'� ��� �A� !��� � �usand

    TJ) in the form of crude oil. Greenhousegases emitted from the energy sector aremainly CO , CH ! , and NOx. CO is alsoemitted but to a lesser degree.

    The process used to develop the GHGinventory estimates relied on the step-by-$��,� ����� �� &�� ���logy for calculatingGHG emissions using the ReferenceApproach (for primary fuels), main sourcecategories (for secondary fuels), andfugitive methane emissions (from oil andnatural gas production activities).Definitions of activity/source categorieswere based on those provided in the IPCC6�,�����%�4�$��������$�!H���&���"��

    Default GHG emissions factors were usedfor the carbon content of locally producedfuels, and of those main fuel combustionactivities (source categories). Stored carbon,wherever available, was deducted from thecalculated carbon emissions. Energy datawas derived mainly from the CentralStatistics Organization and privatecompanies. Alternative emission factorswere used occasionally to calculate GHGs,but on a limited basis, and are noted wherethey apply.

    ����� ���� $ �*$� � �� ��������� #9#�emissions in the energy sector. As can beseen in this table, carbon dioxide emissionsare dominated by power supply , mostly inthe form of electricity production frompublic power stations and heat production.Substantial levels of carbon dioxide are alsoemitted by the transport sector consistingmostly of on-road transportation.

    Table ��.: Gree����%����%����%%���%&�

    ��������5�%�������.�!GHG Source & Sink Categories CO " CH# N " O NOx CO NMVOC SO "Total energy �&'�� �'�� ���� ��� ��� ����� &��Energy Industries �*�*�� �"*� �"�* '"�+ ("�' �"� �Fugitive emissions from fuels � �")) �"�� �"�� �"�� �"�� �Transport ���!� �"*� �"�� ��"�� ��("�( ��")( ���++Other Sectors (commercial,agricultural, residential, forestry,fishing)

    �� �"�� �"�� �"�) �"�' �"�� �

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � s Inventory

    March � � � � ��

    Small amounts of carbon dioxide areemitted by other sectors (i.e., residential) formiscellaneous end uses. In addition,methane emissions are dominated byfugitive emissions associated with leakagefrom natural gas transport.

    �,$ Industrial Processes InventoryThe contribution of the industrial sector toBahrain’s GDP is substantial. Many of theindustrial activities described by the IPCCmethodology are implemented in Bahrainincluding cement production, chemicalproduction, food and beverage production,aluminium production, and halocarbon use.Accordingly, greenhouse gas emissions inthis sector are primarily CO , NMVOC,HFCs, CO, CH ! , and SO . In addition,certain processes contributed to emissionsof CF ! " C " and F # "

    Data used in this assessment was obtainedfrom reliable, official statistical recordsources including the Central StatisticsOrganization, private companies, andrecords from various factories. In thissector, only GHGs emissions from physical

    and chemical transformation processes wereconsidered.

    GHG emitted in this sector, as summarized���������������&���(�

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � s Inventory

    March � � � � ��

    converted to match the IPCC Guidelineworksheets. Data Sources included theCentral Statistics Office. Calculations ofGHG emissions covered a number of sourceactivities, including CH (emissions fromenteric fermentation and manuremanagement, while N ! O emissions werecalculated from manure management.

    �$� $ �*�� ��� ����� ���'� #9#� �&�$$���$�from the agriculture sector are small andconsist mostly of CH �!����#%"�������$���@�enteric fermentation constitutes all of theagricultural CH emissions.

    �,+ Land Use change and ForestryInventory

    This category does not apply in Bahrain asthere are no forests or grasslands that couldbe converted to alternative uses. There arelarge amounts of palm trees and while themonitoring of palm tree areas have typicallybeen neglected, it is well established thatthey are not destroyed when land is areconverted to residential or commercialareas. Rather, they are relocated to otherareas and replanted. As a result, this is notconsidered a land conversion activity.

    �,- Waste ManagementInventory

    This section deals with theestimation of GHGs especiallymethane (CH ), emitted fromvarious handling methods ofmunicipal solid waste (MSW) andwastewater treatment in Bahrain,closely adopting the methodologies������������4-

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � s Inventory

    March � � � � ��

    !�����(� ��� ��,� �������� �������"� ��� �� @%�relati��� ��� �� @%� ���

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � s Inventory

    March � � � � ��

    objectives, there are several specificrecommendations, as outlined below:

    ��Institutional strengthening: It isessential to establish a permanentSecretariat within the GeneralCommission for the Protection ofMarine Resources, Environment andWildlife in order to coordinate periodicupdates of the national inventory.Moreover, a national system for GHGdata collection monitoring, reportingand verification is necessary in order toensure that an inventory updatingsystem is both sustainable and meetshigh standards.

    ��Improvement of local emission factors:Nationally developed and authenticatedGHG emission factors should be used inplace of the IPCC default values infuture updates. Scientific researchshould be conducted regarding specificsources of emissions – particularlynitrous oxides from soils and emissionfactors associated with in-situagricultural and vegetation wasteincineration.

    In the mid-to long-term, the highest priorityis to address some of the gaps in theavailable data. Efforts to improve dataavailability and quality could be principallytargeted at the following sectors:

    ��Energy: It is recommended that nationalsurveys be conducted to better representconsumption levels and patterns ofvarious subsectors of the economy. Inparticular such survey should focus onmarine and aviation bunker fuels,fugitive emissions, and new modes ofpublic transport.

    ��Industry: Scientific research should beconducted to better understand andrepresent energy consumption patternsin small industries and factories, as wellas to improve overall data availabilityfrom these emission sources.

    ��Agriculture: Data should be collectedregarding crop residue disposal systems,the quantity of fertilizers and pesticidesused by the agriculture sector, and thenumber of locally owned and importedlivestock.

    ��Waste: Data should be collectedregarding the quantities of solid wasteand wastewater produced by small ruralcommunities and their waste disposalsystems.

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications – � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " " " " & � �

    March ' ( ( ) ��

    � Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment , IntroductionThe low-lying nature of Bahrain’s islands,coupled with significant land reclamationinvestments and extensive industrial,commercial, and residential activity incoastal zones, emphasize the country’s acutevulnerability to climate change-induced sealevel rise (SLR). In the face of this threat, anassessment of vulnerability and adaptationoptions to sea level rise is a criticalcomponent of Bahrain’s response to climatechange. The specific focus, as discussed inthis Chapter, has been to identify vulnerablesectors, regions, and resources and to assessthe degree of future risk posed by SLR. Theresults of this work are expected to provideclearer indications of Bahrain’s coastal zonemanagement challenges, as well as provideinsights into national strategies for proactiveadaptation.

    ,� ApproachThe purpose of a vulnerability andadaptation assessment is to illuminate thepotential impacts of climate change oncritically important sectors. In the case ofBahrain’s coastal zones, this involves anestimate of the spatial extent of futureinundation from projected SLR, togetherwith an assessment of its impact on humansettlements, agriculture, and naturalecosystems. It also implies the identificationof strategic adaptation options.

    This process requires that a scenario becreated of what Bahraini coastal areas mightlook like in a future without climate change,and that this scenario be compared with aparallel vision of what coastal zones wouldlook like under predicted conditions ofclimate change. In order for this to be done,two climate scenarios must be created: abaseline scenario, aimed at representing a

    future in the absence of climate change anda climate change scenario, aimed atrepresenting a future under increasedgreenhouse gas concentrations and theresulting changes in sea level.

    ����� Baseline Scenario

    A baseline scenario was constructed usinggeographic information systems (GIS) andremote sensing techniques (Al-Jeneid and�����'� ����"�� � �� ,,��� � ���������creating a digital elevation model for thefive major islands (i.e., Bahrain, Muharraq,Sitrah, Jiddah, and Um Na’asan) as well as� ��9*��%���,��$���$��$��%��

    ��$��������imagery.

    These islands were chosen for strategicimportance. The five major islands represent

    �A����� ��������������!not including theHawar group islands) and are zones ofintense economic activity and populationgrowth. Inundation from sea level rise couldlead to serious displacement of people andcommercial activities. The Hawar groupislands represent protected areas that aresurrounded by coral reefs and shallows.They are uninhabited and declared asnational protected areas. Inundation fromsea level rise could lead to loss of biologicaldiversity and adverse impacts on the diversepopulations of birds, corals and fish.

    To facilitate the analysis, it was assumedthat these islands’ coastal zone geography

    ��������&���������(������$���������*��������$�&�������* ��� �(�*��������

    ���� �$��$�a conservative assumption in that it is farlikelier that coastal zones will have been���� ��� ������,��� �(� ����� !���� �:&,��'�more land reclaimed, greater economicactivity) and the resulting impacts from SLRof greater magnitude.

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    March ) * * , �

    ����� Climate Change Scenarios

    Three climate change scenarios – low,moderate, and high - were developed toexamine the impacts from sea level rise onthe selected islands. The low SLR scenario

    $$�&�������-meter rise above current sea�����'� � ��&������� $�������$$�&��������meter rise, and the high scenario assumed a���� &����� ��$�� ��� $�� ������� �� ��%��alelevation model was developed for eachclimate change scenario and vulnerableareas were then identified – by sector andland use class - by overlaying the satelliteimagery over the digital elevation models.

    This multiple SLR approach to the analysiswas important to offset data limitations andto account for uncertainties associated withtopographic perturbations. (i.e., regionalsubsidence/uplifting). The latter is aparticularly important issue in Bahrain asland surface and seabed topography arecontinually undergoing changes due to theextensive resource extraction activities (i.e.,oil, natural gas, groundwater) that areexpected to at least continue at their currentpace, and possibly intensify over time.

    , Sea Level Rise ImpactsThe findings of this first vulnerabilityassessment give cause for concern forBahrain’s security in the face of a changingclimate. As described below, theassessment results suggest that under evensmall changes in sea level, Bahrain facesthreats in terms of land area inundated, anda variety of adverse impacts on populationsettlements, aquatic resources, cropproductivity, coastal erosion, and biologicaldiversity.

    ����� Inundation Levels

    The total land area that would be inundatedunder the various climate change scenarios�$�$��$��������$�$ �*�����/�%�������'������the low sea level rise scenario results in an�������������������A�!���@&

    -) of the total

    land area of the total land area of Bahrain by������� �$� ������ �����$�$� ����������A��������� ���� ��� !�� @&

    -) for the scenario

    * ����$����������$�$���&������������������levels.

    Inundation will unevenly affect Bahrain’svulnerable infrastructure. For the main

    islands of Bahrain,Muharraq, Sitrah, Jiddah,and Um Na’asan - where themajority of socioeconomicactivities are concentrated -inundation would adverselyaffect cities, roads,agricultural areas, as well asbeaches and salt marshes. Ofa total inundated area of

    ����� ��� @&

    -, about a

    7���������� �������!���@&-),

    would occur in theproductive zones taken up bycities, roads, and agriculturallands.

    The extent of inundation onthe Hawar Islands, giventheir status as wetlands of

    ����������/�������������%��������%���+�$�+���%�&����

    ��

    '�

    (�

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    ���

    �� � ���Seal level rise (cm)

    /���������+����������<��!

    �0

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    Indu

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    total inundated land area

    total inundated percentage

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    March ) * * , �

    international importance, is particularlynoteworthy. The islands in this chain areeven more low lying than the main islands.Jazirat Hawar, the largest in the island� ��'� $� � &:�&�&� ��������� ��� �����&����$'�����&�������������������&����$�above sea level. Were sea levels to rise by���� &����'� ����� ��A� !��� @&

    -) of the

    combined land area of these pristine islandswould be in�������� /�%���� ���� ����$����$�the spatial extent of this inundation. It isimportant to note that these inundated areassignificantly overlap the sensitive bird�������%������$���%�$���$�!�����������:��������< ,�����"�

    ����� Impacts on Human Settlements andInfrastructure

    � �� ����� ,�,������� �������� �(� � ��&�����$����������$���(�������$��:,��������������*��This is in part thanks to national policiesthat have historically encouraged the sitingof human settlements away from coastalzones so as to promote commercialdevelopment in these areas. On the other

    hand, coastal zones are currently whereextensive economic infrastructure is locatedthat includes highway networks, touristcenters, and commercial establishments.Roads networks, for example, would likely��� ��� ��'� *�� � �� �$��&���� �� @&�� ���highways and major roads submersed under

    � �� &����� $�� ������ ��$��� � �$� ��,��$���$� �significant share of total coastal roads inBahrain.

    ����� Impacts on Agriculture

    Although its contribution to the nationaleconomic accounts is less than one percent,the agricultural sector plays an importantrole in the livelihood of Bahraini society.The agriculture sector relies on heavyirrigation and currently provides job�,,���������$����&����� ���'����,��,������contributes to national food security goals.

    � �� ��$$� ��� %���������� ���� ���� ��� � ��meter rise in sea level is likely to be around��@&

    -'�����������A����� ����������������

    in the country. Other impacts from theinundation of agricultural lands include

    damage to drainage systems, anincrease in water logging problems,and higher groundwater tables.These impacts are likely tocontribute to adverse impacts oncrop production levels, particularlydate palms which are highlysusceptible to groundwater salinitylevels.

    ����" Impacts on Corals andFishing Industry

    The effect of SLR on coral reefs isdifficult to quantify due to theuncertainties related to regionalsubsidence due extraction ofgroundwater, oil and natural gas.Nevertheless, there are severalpossible impacts that are importantto identify as areas of futureinvestigation, as follows:

    �����������/�������������%����;�,����%+���%����������-��������%�����%���+�$�+&����

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    March ) * * , ��

    �� Reduced light penetration: Siltationfrom coastal erosion may lead toreduced light penetration that canadversely impact the rate at whichvarious species of corals grow.

    �� Sea temperature rise: An increase inclimate change-induced sea temperaturemay contribute to an increase in theincidence of severe coral bleaching, andeventually the death of corals.

    �� Coral calcification: It is likely seawaterwith higher levels of carbon dioxide willadversely affect the coral calcificationrate. This could reduce the density ofcoral carbonate skeletons and lead toaccelerated coastal erosion.

    � ���� ��� ��������(� ����� �'���� ,��,���employed in the fishing industry. Annualfish yields are ap,��:�&���(� ��� &������tones, of which coral fishes (e.g., shrimp,���"� ������� ���� ����� �A� ��� � �� �����annual catch. Deterioration of coral reefhabitats from climate change wouldnegatively affect associated fauna and fishstocks, and eventually threaten the viabilityof the fishing industry.

    ����# Impacts on Mangrove and SaltMarshes

    Mangrove areas are already under highstress due to land reclamation activities. Inthe event of sea level rise, major portions ofmangrove ecosystems would be inundatedand, in theory, lead to a gradual retreat ofplantations to areas inland. However, inview of land reclamation and associatedcommercial land development pressures, itis unlikely that there will be suitable areas toaccommodate the gradual retreat ofmangrove plantations. The total area ofmangrove plantations affected, though notdirectly quantified in the sea level risevulnerability assessment, is expected to bequite high.

    Coastal salt marshes in the main islands willbe among the hardest hit areas due to risingsea levels in terms of the extent of impact.Home to unique and sensitive ecosystems,� ����������� ��*�����������������(����&�������$�����$���������$���������@&

    -. This

    ��,��$���$� ����� ��A� ��� ��� � �� $��&��$���

    ��$'����������A����� �����l land area ofthe main islands.

    ����$ Impacts on Coastal Erosion

    Most of Bahrain’s coastal plains have ��% �$� ��$$� � �� ��&����$� ����� $�� ������and are erosion prone. The wave-inducedmovement of sand along the western andeastern beaches is primarily southward andconsequently heavy transport of sedimentsoccurs toward the southernmost parts ofislands, and especially along the Ras AlBarr sandbar at the lower end of BahrainIsland. This process is likely to beexacerbated under conditions of sea levelrise, with increases in effective waveheights and intensification of littoraltransport along the western and easterncoasts. Furthermore, higher sea levelscoupled with erosion may lead to seapenetration inland in particularly low lying

    ��$���$$�� �����&�bove sea level.

    ����! Impacts on Hydrology and WaterResources

    With the increases in population andeconomic growth of recent decades, Bahrainhas substantially increased its demand for���$ � *����� ������ ��A� ��� ���$ *����demand is met by groundwater withdrawals,resulting in a sever decline of thegroundwater table through saltwaterintrusion. At present, over half the volumeof the original groundwater reservoir hasbeen lost to salinization, sharply reducing itsavailability for municipal and agriculturalpurposes.

    A rise in sea level will further aggravate aserious problem. One possible impact of sea

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    level rise would be a regression in theposition of the freshwater/saline waterfrontleading to further saltwater intrusion anddeterioration of the aquifer. Moreover, SLRwould lead to a new line of contact furtherinland between salt marsh areas andgroundwater which would likely lead tomore seepage of salt water into thegroundwater reservoir. There are alsoindirect impacts from climate change ingeneral as higher temperatures might lead tohigher levels of water consumption inagricultural activities and households,further depleting scarce freshwater supplies.

    ,$ Adaptation Action PlanThe findings of this first vulnerabilityassessment raise serious issues of greatnational concern. Currently heavily reliantupon its coastal ecosystems and resourcesthat are, in many cases, already fragile ordegraded, the population of Bahrain can illafford the added challenge of increasedecological stress that climate change wouldsurely bring.

    Adaptation to sea level rise in Bahrain willlikely need to be a multi-stage and iterativeprocess that includes informationacquisition, raising public awareness,mainstreaming SLR into the policy context,implementing adaptation measures, andmonitoring and evaluation. While there areseveral types and forms of adaptation, theapproach outlined below focuses on a mixof strategies and measures that are tailoredto fit Bahraini local conditions, and take intoaccount existing constraints andopportunities. Two broad elements of anadaptation strategy are essential for Bahrainto adapt to future sea level rise, as discussedbelow.

    ��"�� Policy Mainstreaming Initiatives

    Adaptation policy initiatives are needed toprotect investments in vulnerable areas,minimize coastland loss of vulnerable low-

    lying areas, conserve natural ecosystems,control coastal erosion, and protectgroundwater resources. In this respect,adaptation policies are needed that areanticipatory and ensure continued protectionamidst the development of coastalresources, alleviating SLR damagesincurred to date, and developing acomprehensive understanding of strategicresponses. The Environmental Affairs (EA),given its current role in facilitating theintegration of environmental concernswithin Government development plans, is totake the leadership role in the process ofdeveloping a national strategic response andcoordinate stockholder involvementthroughout the planning process. Specificinitiatives it would address are summarizedbelow.

    �� Integrate SLR considerations intonational development policies: Thisapproach is principally aimed atintroducing shift in the consideration offormulating policies and nationaldevelopment plans. Since SLR is agradual process, it is still possible toconsider adaptation measures now thatcan render future infrastructureinvestments less vulnerable to SLR.Experience has shown that policymakers, planners and managers (i.e.Ministry of Housing) are eager toaddress SLR vulnerability into theplanning process. A variety of actionitems are needed as summarized in���������

    �� Strengthen stakeholder capacity: Thereis a need for capacity building to enablethe EA, as a principal environmentalauthority, to play a major role inplanning, coordinating andimplementing adaptation programs ofaction. EA capacity needs to bestrengthened in terms of human,financial, technical and technologicalresources. Moreover, the capacity of

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    scientific institutions, relatedgovernment agencies, NGOs and otherentities that have a clear stake in SLRshould also be strengthened. A varietyof action items are needed as$�&&��D���������������

    �� Prioritize near-term coastal protection:Vulnerable coastal areas containindustrial compounds, recreationalfacilities and human settlements. Theseareas are of high priority and publicinvestment. The current coastal erosionthreat can be addressed by near-termengineering measures and propermaintenance of coastlines. However,protection as a mean of adaptation iscostly and it may have limited long-termeffectiveness. Several initiatives should���,��$���'�$���������������������'�� ��can help to systematically minimize thelikely effects of SLR along vulnerablecoastal zones.

    ��"�� Ecosystem Protection Initiatives

    Wetlands and marine resources are undercontinuous stress and their ecosystems arebeing disturbed. Many of the sensitivewetlands in Bahrain are currently subject topollution, over-exploitation, and adverseeffects of coastal envelopment projects thatrequire extensive dredging and landreclamation. Further disturbance as aconsequence of SLR will slowly degrademajor functions of these systems, thusadversely affecting biodiversity. Thefollowing paragraphs highlight majoradaptation action needed to limit ecosystemdeterioration.

    �� Mangrove and other wetland (Sabkhas)areas: Mangrove plantations areexperiencing formidable threatsreclamation and infilling activities thatthreaten their existence. Mangrovestands are also vulnerable to SLR havingno capacity for inland retreat. A variety

    of action items are needed as$�&&��D���������������

    �� Coral reefs and other marine resources:Coral has already experienced bleachingevents. Other types of damage due tomismanagement are evident such aspollution from point sources and fromtanker traffic. A variety of action items

    ����������$�$�&&��D���������������

    �� Groundwater Resources: Theimportance of groundwater resources inBahrain cannot be overemphasized.Groundwater resources are experiencingsevere pressures from over-extractionpractices. SLR will likely intensifyseawater intrusion into the aquiferleading to a continuous salinization andrapid deterioration of its quality. Avariety of action items are needed as$�&&��D���������������

    Planning an effective response to SLR willrequire aggressive pursuit of the aboveoptions. The anticipatory initiativesdiscussed in the Action Plan – both policymainstreaming and ecosystem protectioninitiatives - will promote sustainable coastaldevelopment by accounting for the likelyeffects of SLR and current maladaptivepractices. Careful consideration andselection of adaptation policies andstrategies is critical for Bahrain, a small andhighly vulnerable country.

  • Bahrain’s First National Communications –

    � �� � ��� �� �� �� �� � �� � � �� � � Adaptation Assessment

    March

    � � �

    ��

    ������������������������������������tation Plan

    Integrate SLR considerations intopolicies:

    Prioritize near-term coastal protection: Strengthen stakeholder capacity:

    �� AccomZmodate SLR in thedesign of new policies regardingbuilding codes and coastalstructures,

    �� Formulate sector specificdevelopment guidelines (tourism,industry, etc) to highlight forinvestors the potential problemsarising from SLR,

    �� Formulate a comprehensivepolicy framework for integratedcoastal and marine resourcesmanagement, and

    �� Formulate guidelines andlegis