aviation week & space technology - july 6, 2015

7/23/2019 Aviation Week & Space Technology - July 6, 2015

1/94

AVIATIONWEEK

Stalled Momentum

For SpaceX

Rockwell Collinss

Bridge To Silicon Valley

INNOVATION

Whos Breaking the Mold

EmiratesCounterattack

On U.S. Airlines

Closing in on

Pluto

$14.95 JULY 6-19, 2015

RICH MEDIA

EXCLUSIVE

RICH MEDIA

EXCLUSIVE


2/94

The Boeing 702SP satellite is the first and only all-electric satellite, a game-changing technological leap.

The all-electric propulsion system dramatically reduces spacecraft weight, creating more affordable launch

options as well as the opportunity to add additional payload in the 3-8kW range. Two 702SP satellites can

even be stacked on a single launch to reduce costs further. Now, thats the power of innovation.

AN ELECTRIC LEAP

FORWARD.


3/94

STARTS AFTER PAGE 38

I n t e r n a t i o n a l

New EyesFor F-35

PAGE 34

SpaceX SetbackPAGE 22

IsraelsSmart Killers

PAGE DTI 13

& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

AVIATIONWEEK

PAGE DTI 8

Saabs New Sub

$14.95 JULY 6-19, 2015


4/94

The Boeing 702SP satellite is the first and only all-electric satellite, a game-changing technological leap.

The all-electric propulsion system dramatically reduces spacecraft weight, creating more affordable launch

options as well as the opportunity to add additional payload in the 3-8kW range. Two 702SP satellites can

even be stacked on a single launch to reduce costs further. Now, thats the power of innovation.

AN ELECTRIC LEAP

FORWARD.


5/94

Editor-In-ChiefJoseph C. Anselmo

Executive EditorJames R. Asker

Managing Editors Jen DiMascio, Jens Flottau, Graham Warwick

Associate Managing EditorAndrea Hollowell

Art DirectorLisa Caputo

Director, Editorial and Online ProductionMichael O. Lavitt

Director, Digital Content StrategyRupa Haria

DEFENSE, SPACE AND SECURITY

EditorsJen DiMascio (Managing Editor), Jefferson

Morris (Associate Managing Editor), Michael Bruno, (Senior Business

Editor) Amy Butler, Michael Fabey, Frank Morring, Jr.,

Bill Sweetman (Chief Editor, Defense Technology Edition)

CIVIL AVIATION/MAINTENANCE, REPAIR AND OVERHAUL

EditorsJens Flottau (Managing Editor), Madhu

Unnikrishnan (Associate Managing Editor), Sean Broderick,

Cathy Buyck, John Croft, William Garvey, Fred George,

Molly McMillin, Guy Norris, Bradley Perrett, Jessica Salerno, Adrian

Schofield, Brian Sumers, Lee Ann Shay (Chief Editor, MRO Edition)

Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George

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AVIATION WEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

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SPACE

22 Commercial satellite fleet operatorshope to sustain three viable options

after recent launch mishaps

23Falcon 9 failure stalls SpaceX

momentum, casts doubt on NASAcommercial crew vehicle plans

68U.S. Air Forcesays Sbirs redesignwill save $1 billion for future early

missile warning satellites

70Lockheed Martin eyes commercialcommunications satellite joint

venture with Saudi Arabia

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

26Emirates issues report aiming toend debate with U.S. majors over

alleged government subsidies

28 Hong Kong authoritiesrejectJetstars bid for a license in rare

rebuff to Asian LCC expansion

29After years of financialproblems,

LOT Polish Airlines revealsambitious turnaround plan

30Aeroflot Group,hit hard by Russiaseconomic downturn, shrinks fleet

and considers restructuring

57Pratt & WhitneyGTF test anddevelopment tempo steps up for

four airframe programs

58Despite development delays,Mitsubishi looks for bigger

impact in large RJ marketplace

59ATR expands assembly capacity,but with sales slow, launch of

90-seat variant is not in sight

60Western sales willpick up as

commercial market improves,says Superjet International CEO

BUSINESS

30Long-term task list,hard decisionsabout very nature of aerospace

giant await new Boeing CEO

32Boeing 787 problemsbedeviledMcNerney, but he hands over a

thriving commercial business

DEFENSE34Key F-35 targeting system isplaying catch-up with competition

due to development delays

This week Aviation Week publishes two print editions. On the cover far left, Pluto andits moon Charon are captured June 25 in the highest resolution to that date by New

Horizons. Nearly a decade after launch, the probe is due to fly closest by Pluto on July 14.The picture overlays color from the spacecrafts Ralph camera on high-resolution data

from its Lorri camera. Elsewhere in both editions are our annual special report oninnovation (page 36) an interview with Rockwell Collinss CEO (page 50) and reports onSpaceX (page 22) and Emirates response to subsidy allegations (page 26). On the cover

of our Defense Technology Internationaledition is an artists concept of Saabs new2,000-ton-class submarine. Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week.Read it atAviationWeek.com/awstand on our app.

ON THE COVERS

AVIATIONWEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 6-19, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst

Digital Extras Tap this icon in articlesin the digital edition of AW&STfor exclusivefeatures. If you have not signed up to

receive your digital subscription, go toow.ly/AkXJo

ContentsJuly 6-19, 2015 Volume 177 Number 13

6 Feedback 7 Whos Where10-11 First Take 12 Up Front 13 Going Concerns 14 Inside Business Aviation 15 Airline Intel 16 Leading Edge 18 Commanders Intent 19 In Orbit

20 Washington Outlook 71 Classified 72 Contact Us 73 Aerospace Calendar 61

Alan Stern, principal investigator on the New Horizons mission, inspected

the spacecraft shortly before its launch in January 2006, and he will be on

hand in the control center at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics

Laboratory when the probe flies past Pluto and its moons on July 14.


7/94AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 6-19, 2015 5

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40

26

56

INNOVATION

36Airbus Group CEOTom Enders saysthe aerospace industry must work

withand more liketech sector

37Scaled Composites creativeenvironment is thriving despitechallenging Stratolaunch program

38Researchers try to

make the casefor ideas such asaerial refueling,intermodaltransport forairlines

40The continuing pushfor lower fuelconsumption is driving designerstoward new aircraft configurations

44Stratospheric vantage pointattracts out-of-the-box thinking

on unmanned aircraft design

45Different way to enter a planetsatmosphere is behind NorthropGrumman rover concept

46Could new NASA X-plane pave theway for revolution in on-demandtransport, commuter airlines?

TECHNOLOGY

48U.K. transonic wind tunnel

upgraded to aid commercialaircraft design, certification

FACE TO FACE

50Rockwell Collins CEOon innovatingfor the Defense Department and

warding off cockpit hackers

AIR TRANSPORT IN AFRICA

52Kenya Airways and South AfricanAirways struggle to restructurecarefully and become profitable

54Need to invest inairportinfrastructure in Africa stemsfrom terrorism, projected growth

56Despite two years of losses andregulatory headaches, Fastjet CEOis working on plans for expansion

PLUTO ENCOUNTER

61Scientists hope visit to Pluto byNew Horizons mission will rewardlifetime of preparation

62Technical, bureaucratic challengesfaced Pluto mission programduring its 15 years in the making

64New Horizons routeto the thirdzone of the Solar System included

data collection near Jupiter

65 Instruments on Pluto missionhelping make it capstone event inrennaissance of Solar System

67Collection of datatransmitted fromNew Horizons could be threatened

by undetected space debris

VIEWPOINT

74 In this volatilesecurity environment,are Pentagon, major contractorsflying in different directions?


8/94

COVETED COVERS

The Paris Archive retrospectiveof Aviation Weeks Paris Air Show cov-ers over the years (AW&STJune 8-21,pp. 90-91) was a welcome sight. I first

began readingAviation Week & SpaceTechnologyin 1960 in high school.

I have long hoped for a book devotedto your covers going back to thosedays, and earlier. I am a fan of yourannual aviation art issues as well as acollector. If you publish a book of yourprevious issue covers, I will be first inline to order one; I dare say I would beone of many.Stuart FinkelNEW YORK, NEW YORK

COMING TO TERMS

Soft Launch, Hard Impact (AW&STJune 8-21, p. 56) about the Falcon 9Heavy states that future certificationefforts will use a time line rather thanan open-ended event-driven system,as this allows a more flexible approach.Regardless of which approach is actually

better, it is not at all obvious to me whatmakes a time line more flexible than anopen-ended, event-driven effort.

Alpin ChisholmNORTH ATTLEBORO, MASSACHUSETTS

NEAR THE BURSTING POINT?

Richard Aboulafia has it right in hisrecent Up Front column: Overcapacityis looming and ignoring cyclicality willeventually prove fatal for the unwary(AW&STJune 22-July 5, p. 18).

And there is another factor at work,new for the aerospace industry.

Access to good leased aircraft haslargely removed the consequences, andthus the fear, of overcapacity by theairlines, and placed those consequenc-es on the operating lessors.

Operating lessors have so far man-aged overcapacity fairly well due tothe liquidity of commercial aircraft

someone, somewheresurely must need thatsurplus aircraft.

And so a bubble of over-capacity begins to form,aided by cheap moneyand fuel that allows older,

less-effi cient aircraft tocompete with better, moreexpensive aircraft due tolower capital costs.

We have been buildingon this bubble for three

years now, survivingbecause by some miracle

most economies stagger along, gener-ating not a lot of GDP growth but a lotof passengers.

But that cycle will eventually end,leading to a decline in economic condi-tions and demand for travel.

That decline likely will be sudden,and then there will be hell to pay.

Fred BeardenLAGUNA NIGUEL, CALIFORNIA

PIPE DREAMS?

Reader Dan Patterson may havemissed the point in his surmise thatthe U.S. Air Force does not know whatit wants in its new bomber (AW&STJune 8-21, p. 8).

Given its experience with the cur-rent types, USAF would be delighted if

its new bomber had the range and pay-load of the B-52, the speed of the B-1and the low observability of the B-2.Unfortunately the chance of getting allthese things for $550 million a copy isremote in the extreme.Guy WrobleDENVER, COLORADO

BUILDING A BETTER BOMBER

As covered many times in yourmagazine and elsewhere, USAF is plan-ning to develop a new bomber80-100

strike aircraft at last count, at a cost of$550 million eachscheduled to enterservice in 2025. This stealthy, penetrat-ing bomber will be capable of persistingover hostile territory.

But a bomber much better suitedto the threats that will face the U.S. inthe future would be a modification ofone of the newest large commercialaircraft such as Boeings 787.

Instead of wasting billions of de-velopment dollars on a new combina-tion of stealth, supersonic design andadvanced engines, some of these fundscould be more effectively used fordeveloping hypersonic air-to-surface

missiles that could be delivered in fargreater numbers from new large-body

bombers than by penetrating bombers.The large bombers should also be

multimission aircraft. One of theirroles might be to operate within rangeof aircraft carriers where the bombercould serve as an airborne commandcenter escorted by fighters from thecarrier. The bomber could also beequipped with long-range air-to-air

missiles and be capable of refuelingboth manned and unmanned aircraft.

Potential enemies are devotingtremendous effort to the developmentof air defense networks capable of de-tecting and attacking stealthy bomb-ers. By the time a new penetrating

bomber could be deployed, there isno assurance it could deal effectively

with these air defense networks. How-ever, the large-airliner-type bomber,escorted by carrier-based fightersand equipped with large numbers of

long-range hypersonic missiles orinthe near termslower but stealthylong-range missiles would be farmore capable of saturating enemy airdefenses and carrying out successfulair strikes.

Ned CongerORLANDO, FLORIDA

FLEXIBLE NUMBERS

Stretching the truth used to beassociated with fishermen recountingtales of the big one that got away.

In Bogus Blades (AW&STJune 22-July 5, p. MRO14), it seems that avia-tion companies have this same sort ofproblem on both ends of the aircraft.First they have to verify pilot appli-cants logs to ensure they have not

been pencil whipped to increase thehours needed to meet the minimum to

be legit in the cockpit.Then they have to do follow-up on

maintenance records to see that some-one hasnt distorted the history, andthus, reducing hours and cycles to en-gine parts in the back of the airplane.

Roy I. SteeleGEORGETOWN, TEXAS

Feedback Aviation Week & Space Technologywelcomesthe opinions of its readers on issues raised inthe magazine. Address letters to the ExecutiveEditor, Aviation Week & Space Technology,1911 Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600, Arl ington, Va.22209 or send via email to:[email protected]

Letters should be sh orter than 200 words, andyou must giv e a genuine identi fication, addressand daytime telephone number. We will notprint anonymous letters, but names wi ll be

withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.



9/94

for asset management services(AMS) by GE Capital Avia-tion Services. Green has been

interim chief operating officersince Cathy Williams retiredlast December.

Claire M. Grady(see photo)has been assigned to be the di-rector of defense procurementand acquisition in the Office ofthe Under Secretary of Defense,

Acquisition, Technology and Lo-gistics. Grady was most recentlydeputy assistant commandantfor acquisition and director ofacquisition services for the U.S.Coast Guard in the Homeland

Security Department.William Longhas been

promoted to president ofXcedAviation Services, the ground-support equipment-finance andasset-management subsidiaryof Sasser Family Holdings. Long

was most recently managingdirector of Xced, a business helaunched in 2014.

David E. Bowles (see pho-tos) has been named director,Clayton Turnerdeputy direc-

tor and Cathy Mangumassoci-ate director ofNASAs Langley

Research Center. Bowles, whohas been acting director sinceMarch, succeeds Stephen G.Jurczyk, who was previouslyappointed associate admin-istrator for the Space Tech-nology Mission Directorate.Turners positions at Langleyinclude director of the Engi-neering Directorate and centerchief engineer. Mangum was

most recently the head of theCenter Operations Directorate,and before that chief informa-tion officer at Langley.

Roy Kinnearhas been namedCEO ofAir Seychelles. He suc-ceeds Manoj Papa. Kinnear wassenior vice president of revenuemanagement and planning atEtihad Airways, a strategicpartner of Air Seychelles.

Ashwin Bhathas been appointedhead of cargo at Swiss WorldCargo, ef-fective Oct. 1. He will succeed OliverEvans, who is stepping down after 13

years. Bhat, with the company since

Frank Wilsonhas Wornerbeennamed CEO of ControlCam,a Jacksonville, Florida-based

aerial imaging business specializingin high-resolution and geo-referencedimagery. He was previously senior vicepresident and general manager of theDefense and Security Business unitof iRobot, and as a vice president andgeneral manager of several businessesat BAE Systems.

Alvin Khoohas been appointedchief financial officer and officer ofthe company byGA Telesis. Khoo, whooversees corporate strategy, businessdevelopment, mergers and acquisi-tions, and global technology solutions,

was senior vice president and chiefinvestment officer.

Pascale Ehrenfreund (see photo)has been selected as the new chairof the executive board of Germanaerospace centerDLR. She succeedsJohann-Dietrich Worner (see photo),

who has been named director generalof the European Space Agency. Ehren-freund was selected for the position

based on her experience as a scientistand manager. She is reportedly thefirst woman to lead a major research

organization in Germany. An astro-biologist, Ehrenfreund was researchprofessor of space policy and interna-tional affairs at the Space Policy Insti-tute of Washington.

Jane Middletonhas been namedchairman of theBritish Air Transport

Association. She succeeds Barry Hum-phreys, who is stepping down after six

years. Middleton was most recentlymanaging director of a consultancyproviding strategic financial manage-ment. She has held positions at Rock-

well Collins U.K., TNT Express andVirgin Atlantic and is an honorary aircommodore in the Royal Auxiliary AirForce.

Mok Chung Tathas been appointedchief financial officer of China Aircraft

Leasing Group Holdings Ltd. He suc-ceeds Yu Tai Tei, who resigned but isstaying at the company until July 31.

David E. Kopfhas joinedAnarenaspresident of the Space and DefenseGroup. He was vice president of engi-neering and operations at Astronics

Aerosat.Sharon Green(see photo) has

been named chief operating officer

2002, is currently head ofglobal area management andresponsible for worldwidesales of cargo services.

Josef Bogdanskihas beennamed chief information of-ficer/chief process officerof Lufthansa Group . He suc-ceeds Christoph Kollatz, wholeft the company. Bogdanski

has held various positionswithin Lufthansa, and wasmost recently responsiblefor the ScoreChange forSuccess program designedto increase profit marginsthrough efficiencies and ra-tionalization.

Daniel Stegemanhas beennamed chief flight instructoratFlyAdvanced, which ad-ditionally provides executiveand personal integrated air-

craft management, fixed-baseoperations and charter andrental services. He has morethan 11,000 flight hours andexperience in over 40 aircrafttypes.

HONORS AND ELECTIONS

Augustin de Romanetpresident and CEO of Aero-ports de Paris, has beenelected to a one-year term aspresident ofAirports Council

International (ACI) Europe. Hesucceeds Arnaud Feist, CEOof Brussels Airport Co., whosteps down after two terms.De Romanet was elected dur-ing ACI Europes annual as-sembly, congress and exhibi-tion, which took place in Juneat Prague airport.

U.S. Air Force Gen. (ret.)Bruce Carlsonhas been selected to

join the board of directors of LockheedMartin. Carlson, who retired fromUSAF in 2009 after 37 years, servedas director of the National Reconnais-sance Office from 2009-12. c

To submit information for the

Whos Wherecolumn, send Word

or attached text files (no PDFs) and

photos to: [email protected]

For additio nal informatio n on

companies and individuals listed in

this column, please refer to the

Aviation Week Intelligence Network

at AviationWeek.com/awinFor

information on ordering, telephone

U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or

+1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

Whos Where


P. Ehrenfreund

Claire M. Grady

J.-D. Worner

David E. Bowles

Sharon Green

Clayton Turner

Cathy Mangum


10/94

What is todays

best aircraft

investment that

ensures

profitability?

airbus.com

AIRBUS, 2015. All rights reserved. Airbus, its logo and the product names are registered trademarks.


11/94

Airbus Widebody aircraft.

Offering standard 18 inch wideseats in economy. Unrivalled low

operating costs of the A330, 25%

less fuel burn with the A350 XWB,

up to 65% more prot per ight with

the A380.

Airbus is the answer.


12/9410 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 6-19, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst

DEFENSE

A Lockheed Martin F-35B droppedthe U.K.s Raytheon Paveway IV pre-cision-guided bomb for the first timeon June 12, two inert 500-lb. muni-tions being released from the aircrafts

weapons bay. On June 23, the firstF-35B ski-jump launch was conductedat NAS Patuxent River, Maryland. U.K.Queen Elizabeth-class carriers will beequipped with ski-jump ramps.

South Korea is to buy four AirbusA330 MRTT aerial refueling tankers,selecting the type over the BoeingKC-46 and Israel Aerospace Indus-tries tanker conversion of the Boeing767 airliner. All four aircraft are to bedelivered by 2019.

Boeing is cutting 747-8 productionto one a monthfrom March 2016 tosustain the program until the air cargomarket recovery translates into neworders. The cutback comes despite a

deal with Russian cargo operator Volga-Dnepr for up to 20 aircraft.

Airbus has resumed talks on afurther stretch of the A350. We arediscussing with airlines whether theyreally need 40 more seats, says ChiefOperating Officer for Customers JohnLeahy. The A350-1000 will have 366seats in a three-class layout, while Boe-ings 777X will seat 400.

Boeing is to collaborate with Embraerto fly a testbedfor environmentaltechnologies in Brazil in 2016. Theunspecified Embraer aircraft will beflown as part of Boeings ecoDemonstra-tor program, which so far has involvedflight tests of more than 60 technologieson a Boeing 737-800, 787-8 and 757.

United Airlines has invested $30million for a stake in renewable fuelsproducer Fulcrum BioEnergy in adeal that could see the carrier buy 90million gallons a year of jet fuel madefrom municipal waste, at biorefineries

close to five of its U.S. hubs, beginningin 2018.

With Congress failing to act beforethe July 4 recess, the U.S. Export-Import Banks operating authority hasexpired, at least for now. While the

bank will continue to operate and fulfillpast obligations, it will not be able toprovide export guarantees (page 20).

The U.S. Justice Department isinvestigating possible antitrustvio-

lations by U.S. carriers, and severalmajor carriers acknowledged receiv-ing letters from the departmentasking them about communications

with one another, shareholders andfinancial analysts regarding capacityplanning.

An independent commission set upto advise the U.K. government onairport capacityhas decided LondonsHeathrow Airport should build a thirdrunway. Of three options shortlisted,the northwest runway for Heathrowprovides more economic and strategic

benefits, the final report says.

Alenia Aermacchi is proposing itsM345 turbofan trainerto meet aFrench air force requirement for a newfast-jet training system to replace itsaging Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jets. The

M345 is in development to replace Ital-ian air force Aermacchi MB339s.

Saab has signed contracts with Swed-ish defense materiel agency FMV forthe construction of two A26 submarinesand a major mid-life upgrade for twoGotland-class boats. The latest con-tracts for 2015-24 are worth 8.6 billionSwedish krona ($1 billion).

At least 130 people were killed, in-cluding all 122 in the aircraft, when anIndonesian air force Lockheed Martin

C-130B crashed in Medan, Sumatra,shortly after takeoff on June 30. Theaircraft, built in 1964, was on a flightfrom Jakarta that stopped in Pekanba-ru and Dumai before reaching Medan.

The Italian army has showcased amanned-unmanned teaming capabil-ity, with the AgustaWestland/PZL-Swidnik SW-4 Solo optionally mannedhelicopter demonstrator streamingsurveillance video into the cockpitsof army aviation AH-129D Mangusta

attack helicopters as part of the ItalianBlade training exercise.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Airbus will open an A330 comple-tion center in Tianjin at the end of2017under a deal with China for upto 75 aircraft. China Aviation Sup-plies Holding Co., acting for Chineseairlines, has signed a general termsagreement for 45 A330s and a memo-randum of understanding for 30 op-

tions, including A330neos. The orderwill keep the A330 line running at six amonth, says Airbus.

U.S. NAVY

Canada has accepted the first

Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone maritimehelicoptersa milestone planned forNovember 2008 when the 28-aircraftcontract was awarded in 2004. Thesix Block 1 aircraft will be used fortraining and testing. Sikorsky is tostart delivering fully capable Block 2Cyclones in 2018.

Airbus has resumed test flights ofnewly built A400M airlifters afterSpanish authorities lifted the prohibi-tion imposed after the May 9 fatalcrash of an aircraft during a productiontest flight. Customer air forces havereturned their aircraft to flight.

CANADIAN ARMED FORCES

AIRBUS


13/94

62 YEARS AGO

IN AW&ST

A 1953 article onBoeings ProjectX detailed theeffort to developthe companys firstpassenger jet, the

707. Details of the707 were not autho-rized for release byBoeing, but AviationWeek was assuredof their accuracy

by reliable sources, states the article, which does not have a byline. Avia-tion Week noted that the 707 was expected to achieve a cruise speed of 580mph, faster than the 500 mph for the de Havilland Comet 2 and Comet 3. Thearticles prediction of a first flight the following year proved accurate: Thefirst 707 prototype flew on July 15, 1954. The jet entered service in 1958 withPan American Airways.

Read the original article and learn about other historic events in aerospaceand defense at:AviationWeek.com/100


ROTORCRAFT

Bell has performed the long-awaitedand much-delayed first flight of itsModel 525 Relentless super medium

twin-engine helicopter. The aircraft tookto the air at the companys Amarillo,Texas, facility on July 1. The aircraft had

been due to fly at the end of 2014, butsupply-chain issues held up assembly.

SPACE

An apparent overpressurization inthe second-stage liquid oxygen tankshortly before first stage separation

is being investigated as the cause ofthe June 28 failure of SpaceXs Falcon9 launch vehicle which was on itsseventh NASA cargo resupply missionto the International Space Station.Finding and fixing the cause could takemonths, says SpaceX (page 22).

OneWeb has picked Arianespace andVirgin Galactic to launch more than600 low-orbiting Internet satellites

beginning in 2017. The agreementscover at least 21 Soyuz launches and 39

by Virgins air-dropped LauncherOne.Airbus Group and Virgin Group haveparticipated in a new $500 millionfunding round for OneWeb. Airbus is to

build the satellites.

NASAs New Horizons spacecraftwill make its closest approach to

Plutoon July 14, after a journey ofmore than nine years and 3 billion

miles. The $700 million missions seveninstruments will have only one shot togather data as the probe hurtles pastPluto (page 61).

APPOINTED

Dennis Muilenburg took over as Boe-ings CEO on July 1, with current CEOJim McNerney continuing as chairmaninto 2016. Ray Connor, also in the run-ning to succeed McNerney, continues asBoeing vice chairman and Boeing Com-

mercial Airplanes president (page 32).

For breaking news, go toAviationWeek.com

QUOTED

Boeing is right.

The lead of the A320neo over

the 737 MAX is temporary

until around 2030.

AIRBUS CEO FABRICE BREGIER,

in an

interview with Aviation Week, responding to claims

by Boeing that the A320neos order lead over the

737 MAX is only temporary. Airbus has taken

firm orders for 3,825 NEOs, compared with

2,836 Boeing has won for the MAX.

THE SPACESHIP CO.

AIRBUS

HONORED

International aviation attorney PaulV. Mifsud has won the 2015 L. WelchPogue Award for his instrumental rolein liberalizing global air travel. Mifsud,

who led U.S. government and legalaffairs for KLM in 1994-2010, was a keynegotiator in the groundbreaking U.S.-Netherlands Open Skies agreement,architect of the alliance between KLMand Northwest Airlines and founder ofthe MIFNET online forum. The award,

bestowed by the International AviationClub of Washington and Aviation Week,

was presented June 25 at a dinner in

Washington.

STEVE DOUGLASS


14/94

Up Front

COMMENTARY

There is plenty of fodder for McNer-neys critics. Labor relations are poorin the wake of bruising negotiations

with the International Association ofMachinists and Aerospace Workers,growth of the non-union facility inCharleston, South Carolina, and anunfortunate remark about employeecowering. The Boeing 787 continuesto rack up losses; deferred productioncosts are an astounding $30 billionand will increase for at least another

year. Boeing brought unprecedented

pressure on its suppliers for pric-ing concessions through the ill-titledPartnership for Success program.Even its engineers are upset and feelunderappreciated.

One of Boeings worst CEOs in his-tory, right? Think again. Jim McNerneyis one of Boeings best and most conse-quential leaders ever, and his reputation

will only grow with time. But why?First, Jim McNerney cleaned up an

ethical mess that he inherited in 2005.His predecessor had resigned in dis-

grace; the former CFO and another keyexecutive had served time in jail. Theethical culture was poisonous. McNer-ney lowered the boom at a famous 2006corporate retreat, and Boeing has hadno major ethical scandals since.

The other mess that McNerneyinherited was the 787 programinclud-ing its unrealistically low price point,aggressive use of new technology, majordependence on outsourcing, and deeplyflawed supply chain strategy. The diehad been cast for the major losses andprogram delays to follow, and these

were not McNerneys making. But hedid have to deal with the fallout, which

Afavorite industry pastimeis about to wind down. Imtalking about public bashingof Boeing CEO Jim McNerney,

who will retire July 1.

Substance Over StyleWhy Jim McNerney will be remembered as

one of Boeings greatest CEOs

teraction with engineering. It has alsoset up a new Propulsion Systems Divi-sion to regain skills lost when Boeing

spun off its Wichita operations.McNerney also sensed that Boe-ing was not leveraging its scale and

breadth as a major industrial corpo-ration and set about to knock downsilos, particularly for supply chainorganization. Today Boeing has oneof the most sophisticated supplychains anywhere. With the infamousPartnership for Success program,McNerney leveraged Boeings duopolystatus, shifting the power relation-ship with suppliers and addressingmounting 787 financial losses. Not to

ask for concessions would have been adereliction of leadership. However, hisstyle was perceived as arrogant withthe pronouncement of no-fly listsfor suppliers that would not play ball.He came dangerously close to repeat-ing the mistakes of General Motorspurchasing chief Jose Ignacio Lopez,

who destroyed relations with manysuppliers in the early 1990s.

Contributing to his unpopularitywas the fact that McNerney was notan airplane guy. He challenged the

notion that expensive new aircraftprograms every few years were a busi-ness necessity. His pronouncement ofno moonshots was prescient as theindustry entered an era of reenginingand incremental innovation.

The financial results of McNerneystenure are perhaps his most impres-sive accomplishment. Boeings averageoperating profit has increased to 8.5%,in the last five years, from 3.7% in thedecade before his arrival. Double-digitprofits are in sight. These figures were

undoubtedly aided by a booming com-mercial aircraft market and creativeuse of program accounting, but thereis no question that Boeing is on farsounder financial and competitivefooting today than before McNerney.Its market capitalization increasedan astounding $58 billion under hisleadership.

Like former U.S. President HarryTruman, McNerney made bold andconsequential decisions that damagedhis popularity while in office but ulti-mately positioned his organization forlong-term success. His reputation willonly grow with time. c

meant he needed to reengineer Boeingsvery industrial structure to improveproductivity. While Airbus was produc-ing aircraft in four countries, Boeings

commercial manufacturing footprintwas exclusively in the Puget Sound andsubject to frequent strikes. The answer

was a new 787 facility in non-unionCharleston to lower costs and create aninternal market for aircraft final assem-

bly. Labor wasnt pleased, but Boeing ismuch better positioned.

The companys engineering footprintwas also out of date. While other OEMswere busy globalizing their engineeringfunctions, Boeings commercial engi-neering was unionized and heavily con-

centrated near Seattlehardly a worldcapital for such talent. Boeing neededto tap into new locations for humancapital, and under McNerney it creatednew engineering centers of excellence.While the transfer of thousands of jobs

was a public relations disaster, it wasa necessary modernization to an engi-neering function that had grown staidand complacent.

Boeing also redefined its corecompetencies to regain critical skillsthat had been outsourced. Rather thansourcing composite wings from Japanas on the 787, Boeing will make 777-X

wings in Everett to ensure strong in-


BOEING

By Kevin Michaels

Kevin Michaels is a vice presidentwith ICF Internationals Aerospace& MRO consulting practice inAnn Arbor, Michigan.


15/94

Going Concerns

COMMENTARY

The Pentagon has been waging awar on profit and striving to usurpintellectual property, aver some tradeassociations and other industry boost-

ers, who also note that anti-Big Busi-ness tea party concerns on Capitol Hillare trying to kill the U.S. Export-ImportBank. And dont get them started aboutthe stupidity of so-called sequestrationfederal spending caps, glacial defenseacquisition reform, and the innovation-crushing regulatory burden.

Yet international supplierstakinga cue from Neil Diamondkeep com-ing to America.

For us, to serve this large customer,we think its absolutely worth it, says

Judy Marks, president/CEO of Sie-mens Government Technologies.She is not alone, judging by com-

ments at a recent panel of U.S. chief ex-ecutives from four foreign-based A&Dcompanies at the Atlantic Council inWashington (moderated by analyst Ste-

ven Grundman, an Aviation Week con-tributor). The panel included Michael

Andersson, president/CEO, Saab NorthAmerica; Peter Lengyel, president/CEO, Safran USA; and Alan Pellegrini,president/CEO of Thales USA.

These CEOs are bullish on America.In response to an Aviation Week ques-tion, Lengyel ranks Safrans prospects

To listen to the traditional, heritage U.S. aerospace anddefense industry in recent years, youd be forgiven forthinking that Washington is smothering the future of business inAmerica and that a growing anti-capitalism movement is afoot.

Diamonds in the RoughEverywhere around the world,theyre coming to America

in the U.S. as a 10 on a scale of 1-10and says the Paris-based company isgrowing its U.S. revenue from 20% ofsales to 25%. Pellegrini talks about U.S.

growth as double-digit, every year forFrances Thales; and while Anderssonand Marks decline to give details forSaab or Siemens, respectively, both saythe future is very positive.

It is a far cry from the messagefrom U.S.-headquartered primes andOEMsbut then again, how things lookoften depends on where one sits. Forforeign companies coming to America,the explanation may lie in the catch-phrase attributed to bank robber WillieSutton. In other words, America is

where the money is.Our No. 1 end-user in the world isthe U.S. government, Lengyel says.For instance, Safran has provided theFBIs fingerprint system for almost 30

years and is responsible for about halfof the Transportation Security Admin-istrations baggage-screening detectionsystems. This is on top of the jet andhelicopter engines, avionics and other

work it is well known for worldwide. Inthe end, America makes up $5 billionof the parent companys $20 billionannual revenue, he says.

For Thales, with eight business unitsin the U.S., American work accounts for

about $2 billion in yearly revenue andthe company even exports a substan-tial amount, according to Pellegrini.

Of course, there are challenges, butthey are not what you might think.These CEOs do not rage against seques-tration, per se, or the defense contractaudit and management agencies. Forthese international companiesused to

working in other countries from theirearliest days because their respectivedomestic markets could not supportthemthe U.S. is the gold standard.

Its a very welcoming market, ingeneral, Saabs Andersson says.

Theres probably no more open andtransparent market, agrees Marks.

Indeed, these executives heap praiseon Washington for the Defense SecurityService (DSS) and its efforts to improveforeign investment and business condi-tions in America. DSS oversees protec-tion of U.S. and foreign classified infor-mation and technologies in the handsof cleared industry providers under theNational Industrial Security Program.Under Stan Sims, director since 2010,DSS has been winning kudos fromexecutives and policy analysts alike.

Since his tenure . . . weve had an

extraordinary level of transparent andopen exchange on these issuesto the

benefit of growing U.S. businesses,despite the foreign ownership element,

while still keeping as the No. 1 tenetthe protection of national securityinformation, Lengyel says.

What is the secret to these execu-tives happiness and success? First,they say, is to accept the reality of U.S.regulations and security requirements.We just decided this is what we haveto work with, says Andersson.

Second, understand and exploit therole your foreign-based company canplay as a partner to U.S. primes andOEMs. Not only does it help foreigncompanies win spots on U.S. pro-grams, but these relationships help inpursuing overseas business, too.

They look at us as a good channelto market, Pellegrini says of U.S. com-panies abroad. Weve . . . by definitionhad to seek out and nurture markets[inside and] outside of Europe.

Finally, know that Washington is notthe root of your challenges. Says Pel-legrini: The most time you put into thisis educating the parent back home.c


ATLANTIC

COUNCIL

By Michael Bruno

Senior Business Editor

Michael Bruno blogs at:AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]

Steven Grundman (far left), Michael Andersson, Judy Marks and AlanPellegrini listen to Peter Lengyel.


16/94

Inside Business Aviation By William Garvey

COMMENTARY

Business & Commercial

AviationEditor-in-ChiefWilliam Garvey blogs at:

AviationWeek.com

[email protected]

Founded 20 years ago byBombardier as a feeder forits Learjet, Challenger andGlobal business jets, Flexjet

became the last of the OEM-owned fractional programsto be divested. Directional

Aviation Capital, which ownsFlight Options, added Flexjetto its broad list of businessaviation subsidiaries in 2013.

Those two programs nowaccount for more than 150aircraft, and have another 150 on or-der, including Embraer Phenom 300s,Lear 75s, Challenger 350s and a mix

of 50 Gulfstream 450s, 500s and 650s.The first of the Gulfstreams, a pair ofG450s, were delivered in late June; thecompany expects to add another four

by year-end.Flexjet had 75 Lear 85s on order,

but since Bombardier announced ithad paused the programa verb notfound in any sales contractFlexjethas selected a replacement, which it

will unveil in September after takingdelivery of the first five.

Kenn Ricci, the principal at Di-

rectional Aviation, says all the newdeliveries will be operated by Flexjetas part of a Red Label program, to

be rolled out soon. Broadly, all RedLabel aircraft will share four charac-teristics: All aircraft will be five yearsor younger; each will have uniqueinterior features; each aircraft willhave a dedicated crew; and none ofthe aircraft will be available to jet cardholders.

Regarding that last proviso, Riccisays, If you want to play at AugustaNational, you have to be a member.

With the initial Gulfstream deliv-eries, a torch of sorts was passed.

Although it is a distant second to NetJets among fractionalaircraft ownership operations, the Flexjet/Flight Optionsteam is demonstrating an eagerness for growth not seen since,well, NetJets began its impressive spurt back in the 1990s.

Growth SpurtLarger and longer for members only

NetJets had once partneredwith the manufacturer inoffering shares in Savannah-

built Gulfstreams. However,with the downturn in busi-ness after 2008, the rela-tionship soured. Ultimately,NetJets chose to purchaseGlobal models from Bombar-dier to satisfy its long-haulcustomers.

Meanwhile, Ricci, whohas accumulated 4,000

hr. piloting Gulfstreamsthe mosticonic planes in the industrybegannegotiating with Gulfstream four years

ago on behalf of Flight Options. Now theaircraft ordered as a result are destinedfor Flexjet, the former Bombardierentity. And, he says, Gulfstream hasgranted his organization fractionalexclusivity to their aircraft.

The Gulfstreams are intended toprovide international reach for Riccisoperation, a key part of his growthplan. The mission for our company isto go larger and longer, he says. c

FAMILIAR PATTERN

In the flurry of news reports from therecent Paris Air Showmore blockorders for Airbus and Boeings, theC Series impressive debut, the suddenpopularity of Dassaults Rafale, andSikorskys woes and potential saleamong thempress reports about a

young helicopter outfit might easilyhave gone unnoticed. Not by the heli-copter community, however.

On June 9, came the announcementthat Milestone Aviation Group hadsigned a firm order for three addi-tional Finmeccanica-AgustaWestland

AW139s, part of a 45-rotorcraft buyagreement made two years earlier.

Then on June 15, Milestone said itwould be buying 20 Bell 525 Relent-less fly-by-wire helicopters (photo),

and on that same day upped its orderfor Airbus Helicopters H175 to 28machines, the largest order yet for thesuper-medium lift twin.

The fact is, the helicopter leasingoutfit has been on a buying spree sinceits founding in 2010. Today its fleetnumbers 187 helicopters in service

with 33 operators, and it has firm or-ders or options for another 150+. Total

value of that rotary roundup is said tobe in excess of $5 billion.

Two key elements behind thatformidable record are familiarity and

heft. The former is shared by Mile-stones executives, many of whom

worked for the last business aviationupstart wonderNetJets. Not a sur-prise since it was Milestones founder,Richard Santulli, who launched Net-Jets in 1986 and oversaw its phenom-enal growth. Prior to that he led RTSHelicopters, the largest helo lessor inthe 1980s. And before that he led RTS

Helicopters, the largest helicopter les-sor in the 1980s.

The monetary muscle comes fromGE Capital Aviation Services, the air-

craft leasing behemoth that acquiredMilestone last year for $1.8 billion.Three out of four of Milestones he-

licopters serve the offshore oil and gasindustrya segment whose declinerecently was a factor in Sikorskysdecision to ax 1,400 jobsbut thelessor notes that most of its machinesservice oil-producing platforms, andnot the exploration platforms wherethe real slowdown is concentrated.Still, it plans to expand its presence

beyond the oil patch, including insearch and rescue, emergency medicalairlift, government service and utilitycontracts. c


GULFSTREAM

BELL

HELIC

OPTER

DirectionalAviation

Capitals KennRicci.


17/94

COMMENTARY

There are four high-profile casesof airlines thatwhile not providinganswers as to whether the industryoverall has committed to too muchcapacitywill provide a glimpseinto the back-and-forth shuffling theBoeing and Airbus sales teams oftenhave to deal with when airlines changestrategic direction. Aeroflot, Malaysia

Airlines (MAS), Skymark and TAPPortugal serve as prime examples.

The last of the four is perhaps themost surprising and interesting case

study. A majority stake in TAP wasrecently sold by the Portuguese govern-ment to a consortium of investors thatincludes Azul (and JetBlue) founder Da-

vid Neeleman. TAP originally placed anorder for 10 Airbus A350-800s in 2005,

when the aircraft was still supposed tohave a traditional metallic fuselage butnew engines. The airline later convert-ed the order to the XWB and increasedthe number of aircraft from 10 to 12 in2007. Four years after that, TAP agreedto change the order again and movedfrom the -800 to the new baseline -900after Airbus opted to shrink the smaller

variant, which affected its economic

Whether the record backlogs at Airbus and Boeing are assolid as they seem has been debated for years. Some arguethey are artificially inflated beyond the level that reflects actual

demand, while others believe that the growth in international air

transport justifies the large orders to which manufacturers are

now accustomed.

Going Full CircleFleet plans often fluctuate, but four airlineschanges point to a deeper industry trend

efficiency. Now another four years havepassed, and TAP may be close to dump-ing the A350 order altogether in favorof the A330neo. If industry insiderspredictions are correct, TAP will havegone full circlean ironic twist to its

widebody plans, because the A330neocomes relatively close to what the air-line originally wanted to order: an A330

with better engines and better range.From the airlines perspective, the

about-face makes perfect sense. TheA330neo is cheaper than the A350 and

seems to almost perfectly match TAPsrequirements. The carriers long-haulnetwork is focused on destinations inBrazil, and stage lengths typically donot exceed 10 hr., which is close to theideal operating range of the A330neoand below what the A350 has beendesigned for. Given the options, the

A350 seems like too much aircraft forthe mission.

While not ideal for Airbus, theconversion would certainly be a lot lesspainful than what lies ahead at MAS,

Aeroflot and Skymark. The future ofsix A380sof which two have been

built and are stored at Toulouse Blag-

nac Airportis at stake and, giventhe already precarious state of theprogram, Airbus is strongly defending

its interests in Skymarks bankruptcyprotection proceedings. The Japanesecarrier intended to operate the aircraftin an unusual all-premium layout onlong-haul routes from Tokyoanattractive prospect that suited themanufacturers goal of gaining a foot-hold for its largest product in Japanslong-haul market. But now the aircraftare associated with an ailing airlinethat can no longer afford them. Evenif Skymark survives, the future seems

bleak for A380s in Japan.The case is a little different in

Malaysia, where MAS is trying todispose of two of its six A380s alreadyin service. Newly appointed CEOChristoph Muller has made clearthat the A380s work well in premiummarkets, the Kuala Lumpur-Londonroute in particular, and he did not gofor the kind of criticism of the aircraft

by the traveling public that could havetarnished the A380 image further.In addition, Malaysia is making cutselsewhere, and is in the middle ofnegotiations with lessors about the

structure of its future fleet. But it issending out signals that should worry

Airbus: Muller argues that MAS doesnot necessarily have too many aircraft

but that the ones it has are too large.Boeing likely will be pleased with

that statement because it bolsters thelong-standing argument that custom-ers, and therefore airlines, will opt formore direct services in the long-haulmarkets in the future, thus support-ing demand for smaller long-haul jetssuch as the 787 and possibly at a later

stage Boeings middle of the marketproposal. But Mullers turn at the helmcould well mean the end of 777s (and747s) at MAS, too.

And sometimes not even goingsmaller will solve fundamental prob-lems. Russian airline Aeroflot revealedin early June that it will not take the 22787s it has on order. Given the contrac-tion in international air travel fromand to Russia, the carrier felt forcedto curtail previous capacity plans. For

what it is worth: Finding new buyers forthe aircraft should be easier for Boe-ing to achieve than Airbuss efforts toremarket A380s. c

Airline Intel


JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET

By Jens Flottau

Managing Editor for CivilAviation Jens Flottau blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/thingswithwings

[email protected]


18/94

COMMENTARY

When NASA restructured its aero-nautics research in 2014 to focus it onstrategic challenges facing aviation overthe next 20-40 years, it also sought torecapture the culture of taking risks,failing early and learning fast thatmarked the X-plane heydays of the1950s and 60s. The idea is to recaptureit in a small way, at least, by bringing anentrepreneurial approach to its seed-ling efforts to develop new ideas.

The agency has announced the

winners of its first Shark Tank-likecontest to select and fund internalprojects by NASA researchers that

will rapidly demonstrate the feasibil-ity, or otherwise, of new ideas. The sixprojects will receive $1.5-2 million a

year and be given 18-30 months start-ing in October to show feasibility, but

with sparse oversight except for prog-ress reviews at agreed milestones.

The six winning ideas include usingan aircrafts structure as the bat-tery, to reduce the weight of electricpropulsion; developing a trusted pilotin a box for autonomous unmannedaircraft; producing lightweight com-

Trying, failing, learning and trying again was how the aviationindustry built itself up over its first half century. But sincethe nothing is impossible days of the 1950s and 60s, the con-sequences of failure have escalated. And so has the aversion torisk, not only among manufacturers but alsowithin the researchagencies charged with taking greater risks to develop tomor-rows high-payoff technologies.

Shark AttackLooking to rebuild a culture of taking risks,NASA selects rapid-feasibility demos

posite structures flexible enough tochange their shape in flight; creat-ing high-voltage, variable-frequencydrives and power distribution withself-healing insulation for electricpropulsion; preparing tools that en-able aircraft to skip ground testingand learn to fly like young birds; andevolving a digital twin that predictshow aircraft will age.

These concepts were selected underthe Convergent Aeronautics Solutions

(CAS) project by a process familiar toventure capitalists but new to NASAaeronautics. We are not only ex-perimenting with technology, but withprocesses, says Doug Rohn, managerof NASAs new Transformative Aero-nautics Concepts program. Im likean angel investor. They need to showfeasibility, and then Im done.

The six were selected from 17internal projects brought forward byNASA aeronautics research centers.To qualify, the ideas had to be multi-disciplinary, the teams had to

involvemultiple centers, the concept of eachhad to align with NASAs strategic plan

and the resultwhether a technology,tool or processhad to answer one ofthe big questions helping guide the

agencys research.On pitch day, each team had 20min. to present their concept to a

board of sharks comprising NASAprogram directors and offi cials withexperience in technology selection.Were using almost venture-capital-like principles. But instead of money,our return on investment is in knowl-edge and potential solutions to futurechallenges in aviation, Rohn says.

To get the CAS project off theground, NASA put three existingseedling efforts through the same pro-

cess. One is the Convergent ElectricPropulsion project led by principalinvestigator Mark Moore. We askedMark the same questions: Whats the

big question? Wheres the relevanceto the future? Whats your team? How

will you execute? Then we give themthe money and say go execute.

Moores project is a three-year, $15million effort that will result in flying anX-plane with distributed electric pro-pulsion in 2017. Two other projects wentthrough the same process, Rohn says:

a towed X-plane concept for low-costflight testing, and a preliminary-designtool kit to help startup companiesassess design options for autonomous

vertical-lift, hybrid-electric aircraft.The additional concepts newly

selected will formally kick off the CASproject. NASA plans annual SharkTank rounds to select more ideas, but

with only around $10 million in annualfunding, the six initial

projects willcreate a bow wave that will consumemuch of the money available for the

next two years. But some of them maynot pan out, and we will pull out, whichwill free up funding, he says.

Rohn says he was excited by thequality of the proposals and the passionof the teams. And while the process isnew to NASAs aeronautics researchers,the feedback was they like the ap-proach of making a pitch, and the facetime with the selection board. Now theagency is working to bring some of thesame ideas to its funding of seedlingprojects outside NASA, he says. We

want to challenge the external commu-nity to work with us on these strategicimplementation plan problems.c

Leading Edge


By Graham Warwick

Managing Editor-TechnologyGraham Warwick blogs at:

AviationWeek.com

[email protected]

NASA


19/94

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20/94

Commanders Intent

COMMENTARY

By Bill Sweetman

Read Sweetmans posts onour blog Ares,updated daily:

AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]

In a Green Flag exercise on the WestCoast in June, simulating close airsupport (CAS) operations against anunspecified ground-based air defense

(GBAD) and fighter threat, the AirForce disclosed that F-35s were able tocomplete their missions safely, whileF-16s and A-10s were engaged and shotdown.

Late in May, Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Har-rigian, director of the Air Forces F-35integration offi ce, said that one of thekey advantages of the F-35 was its sen-sor fusion, contrasting it with the F-15pilots workload. That was you run-ning the system, he said of the olderaircraft. You had to take the data

from the radar, you had to take thedata from the radar warning receiver(RWR), and you were essentially for-mulating your situational awareness in

your head.Then aMarine Corps Timesreport

on the F-35Bs shipboard trials quotedhints about the fighters classifiedradio system, which allows pilots tocommunicate with the ship and eachother without using radios.

People are comparing the F-35against the aircraft they are famil-iar with, or that they assume theiraudience is familiar with. That is notsurprising, as far as it goes, but it may

U .S. service leaders have been talking up the excellence ofthe Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter recently. Butthere is a newly important theme running through recent state-

ments and public events.

Somewhat UniqueThe F-35 is better than . . . exactly what?

give a distorted impression of how theF-35 compares with its contemporariesrather than its predecessors.

Consider the aircraft shot down in

Green Flag. Nobody has ever arguedthat the A-10 was intended to survivealone against modern GBAD systemsor provide its own defense againstfighters, as the F-35 did in the exercise.Even the Cold War-era 2S6 Tunguskagun-missile system would prep the Hogfor the BBQ in no time flat. Other fight-ers would clear the zone for the A-10 tosupply CAS, which it does very well.

The Air Force F-16 force is ob-solescent. In terms of survivabilityagainst GBAD, it is even a generation

behind decade-old export F-16s likethe Israeli F-16I Sufa and Singaporessimilar aircraft. The RWR is theanalog ALR-69so far, only special-operations C-130s are outfitted withthe new digital-technology ALR-69A.Digital systems are much more likelyto provide timely warning againstpop-up threats because they listenacross their entire operating band allthe time, while analog RWRs have tosweep across frequencies.

U.S. F-16s have no built-in electronicattack (EA) systems. They can carryelderly EA pods; the improved ALQ-131A pod with digital radio-frequency

memory (DRFM) technology is not yetin service.

The F-35s European contemporaries

have fully integrated DRFM-based sys-tems, with interferometric ranging andphased-array narrow-beam jammerantennas. This reflects the fact that theU.S. Air Force backed away from EA inthe 1990s in favor of stealth.

The same comparison applies toHarrigians comments about the F-35ssensor fusion. It is indeed diffi cult for apilot to process information from radar,RWR and other data links, presentedon separate displays in different sizesand formats. That was why the F-22included a sensor-fused tactical situ-

ation display (TSD)as do the SuperHornet, Typhoon (photo, with F-35 inlead), Rafale and Gripen. Sensor fusionis diffi cult but not magic: it involvescorrelating the signals that differentsensors receive from the same target,and combining them into a single-trackfile that contains the best informationin all spectra.

It is surprising that anyone wouldconsider the F-35s Multifunction Ad-

vanced Data Link (MADL)the subjectof the comments from the F-35B tri-

alsto be worthy of the secret-squirreltreatment, seeing that the first fighter-to-fighter data link became operational35 years ago on the Saab JA 37 Viggen.The JAS 39 Gripen arrived in 1997 witha data link that displayed the position,

bearing and speed of all four aircraftin a formation, plus fuel and weaponsstate. Detailed symbols on the TSD dis-tinguished between friendlies, hostilesand unidentified targets and showed

who had targeted whom. MADL adds anew level of low-probability-of-intercept

technology to the mix, but otherwise isnot a radical innovation.

This focus on domestic compari-sons is a result of isolation, bred fromsecrecy. Military people who are notcleared into intelligence often do notsee much of what foreign counterpartsare doing, aside from occasional andlimited exchange tours. It is also an ob-

ject lesson to be cautious when anyonetries to sell you anything with the helpof that much-abused word unique,and to be skeptical of terms (likefourth-generation) that imply that a25-year-old F-16 and an F3R-standardRafale are somehow the same. c


LOCKHEED MARTIN


21/94

In Orbit

COMMENTARY

By Frank Morring, Jr.

Senior Editor FrankMorring, Jr., blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/onspace

[email protected]

Outside, a local astronomy club hadset up their telescopes to give journal-ists a look at Titan from Earth. In theamateurs instruments, the orangemoon probably appeared much as ithad to Dutch astronomer ChristiaanHuygens when he discovered it in1655nothing more than a small pointof light that didnt twinkle like a star.

It was 350 years from Titansdiscovery until a robot from Earthlanded on it, although Pioneer 11

did conduct a first reconnaissanceflyby in 1979. By comparison, thePluto flyby coming up next week has

been executed in record time. ClydeTombaugh discovered Pluto in 1930,as a flickering point of light on a pairof photographic plates exposed at theLowell Observatory, and the nuclear-powered New Horizons probe ismaking its closest approach on July14. That is 85 years, and it already hastaken the nuclear-powered spacecraft9.5 of them to reach Pluto from Earth.

It will take another 1.5 years for all thedata collected there to come down.

Alan Stern, the New Horizons prin-cipal investigator, says his science teamopted for state-of-the-art instrumentsto collect the data instead of the radiogear that would bring it home faster.They can wait a little longer, he says, aslong as the wait is worth it. And for thisgroup, the bar is pretty high.

Were going to a whole new class ofbody, very analogous to the first mis-sions to the giant planets, Stern says.Were going to this new class, thesesmall planets in the Kuiper Belt. Wevenever been to any of them.

Europes Huygens lander entered Titans atmosphere Jan. 14,2005, and touched down on its hydrocarbon surface. A fewhours later, members of the Cassini/Huygens team displayed the

first ground images from Saturns big moon to an impatient gang

of reporters gathered in the cafeteria of the European Space

Agencys control center in Darmstadt, Germany.

Taking the Long ViewPatience and persistence are virtuesin space exploration

At its last all-hands meeting beforethe May 28 flyby (see photo), the NewHorizons science team reported on thestatus of the spacecraft instrumentsand final plans to collect as much dataas possible during the once-in-a-life-time opportunity. This first reconnais-sance of Pluto will be much more thana picture-taking session.

New Horizons has been collectingdata for months now, and it will havea full agenda on the day it hurtles

past the binary dwarf that is Plutoand its giant moon Charon, at morethan 30,000 mph. The hundreds ofmeasurements it is programmed tomake are designed, at a minimum, tocharacterize the geology and morphol-ogy of both bodies, map their surfacecompositions and characterize Plutosatmosphere. Highly desired objec-tives include stereo imagery of Plutoand Charon, high-resolution imageryof some areas on the two surfaces, asurface temperature map of the two,and details of the interaction betweenPlutos ionosphere and the solar windat a distance from the Sun about 40

times greater than at Earth. If Charonhas an atmosphere, New Horizons isset up to find it (see page 65).

It has been a generation since wevehad an exploration like this, saysStern. Remember Voyager at Uranusand Neptune? We had no idea what toexpect. The pictures of Uranus andNeptune were just blue, smudgy balls,and we didnt know much about theirsatellites. . . . And Voyager trans-formed it in a few weeks of a flyby.

Anybody who knows Stern knowspatience is not his forte, but he is will-ing to wait, too. Basically, he has spenthis entire career working on a dedi-cated mission to Pluto, and so far he

has found a way around every obstacleput in his path. Most recently, whensearches with some of the largest tele-scopes on Earth could not find suitablefollow-on targets deeper in the KuiperBelt, Stern wrangled time on theHubble Space Telescopein the faceof competing demands from dozens ofother scientiststo do the job (AW&STMay 15, 2014, p. 23).

It appears to have worked, althoughmore analysis is needed to narrow thecandidates Hubble found to one target.

Visiting it in about three years willrequire additional congressional ap-propriations for the extended mission,

but compared to some of the hurdlesStern and his team have jumped,Capitol Hill seems like a cakewalk.

After that, with another billion milesbetween the spacecraft and Earth andits computer flash memories refilled,there will be another long wait for allof the data from that flyby to make its

way into the listening ears of NASAsDeep Space Network.

With the flyby imminent, the full sci-ence team has reconvened at the JohnsHopkins University Applied PhysicsLaboratory in Maryland, where NewHorizons is controlled. The flyby will

be autonomous, but after the long waitthe workload will be so intense thatSterndrawing on the experience ofa nine-day rehearsal in 2013broughtin a sleep specialist to help the teamhandle the days and nights ahead.

They were falling asleep at meetings,and part of the reason was there was alot of sleep shifting going on . . . becauseof the schedule the spacecraft was on,he said then. It was scary.c


FRANK MORRING JR./AW&ST


22/94

Washington Outlook

The major accomplishment of the last two Congresses hasbeen their ability to do little. This year, lawmakers are takinginaction to a whole new level, because by doing nothing by June30, they allowed the Export-Import Banks operating authorityto expire, at least for now.

Meanwhile, the bank willbe able to operate and fulfillits past obligations, but it willnot be able to provide new as-sistance to foreign buyers ofU.S. products.

It is possible that Congresscan return from its July 4 recessand reauthorize the bank. Itcould be added to must-passlegislation such as the bill toextend the highway trust fund,or another vehicle. The bankssupporters are optimistic.

In addition to the nationstop business groups, the WhiteHouse will be pushing for authorization.Ex-Im has supported $235 billion in ex-ports over the last six years, direct loans,loan and working capital guarantees andexport credit insurance. Aircraft andavionics make up the lions share8.4

billionof what is being bought in 2014.The bank also helped to export about$941 million in U.S.-made satellites andlaunch services last year.

Without the ability to secure future

loans, Ex-Ims primary beneficiary Boe-ing, and a number of other aerospacebusinesses could be left in the lurch.

Standard & Poors notes Boeing is largeenough to set up third-party financing formost of its new aircraft orders. Unlike therecession years, today ample aircraftfinancing exists through other sources.But in the long term, if Boeings other fi-nancing options dry up, that could addto the pressure from a cyclical drop in thesales of commercial aircraft, S&P says.International economic turmoil, such asa Greek default, could disrupt the capi-tal markets and shrink lending to riskiercredits, such as weak airlines.

A global monolith such as GeneralElectric is likely to be cushioned by thefact that its sales supported by the bankare small compared to total revenues.Plus, GE could offset losses by movingU.S. manufacturing to countries thatstill offer export financing, S&P says.

The effects may be felt more dramati-cally elsewhere in the supply chain andin the business aviation community.

Air Tractor, an agricultural aircraft

company, has relied heavily on Ex-Imbank insurance to grow its business overthe last decade. In 1994, 10% of its aircraft

were exported; by 2012, half were. Thestory is similar for Thrush Aircraft, whichgrew its business selling crop dusters tocustomers in South America and Africa.

The bank provided $1.9 billion in assis-tance to general aviation manufacturerssince 2012 to help U.S. manufacturerscompete internationally, says General

Aviation Manufacturers AssociationPresident and CEO Pete Bunce. Reau-thorization [of the bank] will keep manu-facturers on a fair, level playing field tocompete against businesses in the more

than 60 other countries that have theirown national export credit agencies likethe Export-Import Bank, Bunce says.

China tops the list, notes the Aero-space Industries Association (AIA).With respect to competition in strategyand policies between the U.S. and China,this is a good thing, AIA quotes ZhaoChanghui, the Ex-Im Bank of Chinaschief country risk analyst, as saying.

The expiration of the Ex-Ims operatingauthority is a win for those who considerthe bank corporate welfare, such as Rep.Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), chairman ofthe House Financial Services Commit-tee. The challenge for supporters of acompetitive free-market economy is to

make sure Ex-Im stays expired.Bank on the lobbying being intense as

efforts to reauthorize the bank join theparade of controversial bills up for con-sideration before the fiscal year ends. c

BEG TO DIFFER

Even before the SpaceX Falcon 9exploded en route to the InternationalSpace Station (ISS), former NASA

Administrator Michael Griffin wasdisputing the companys claim that it ismore commercially viable than United

Launch Alliance (ULA). Testifying to theHouse Armed Services strategic forcessubcommittee June 26, SpaceX propul-sion engineer Jeffery Thornburn said hiscompany used internal funds to developand demonstrate our Falcon family ofrockets, making it more commercially

viable than ULAs proposed Vulcanrocket, which needs government busi-ness to finish development.

But Griffin, who originated NASAsCommercial Orbital TransportationServices program that provided seed

money for private vehicles to resup-ply the ISS, says the company receivedconsiderably more than that afterPresident Barack Obama took of-fice. [F]rom public sources its easilypossible to show SpaceX has receivedabout $3.5 billion or so, possibly more,in open-source funding, he says,suggesting a considerable amount

went into capitalizing SpaceX. I verystrongly believe that the governmentmoney . . . has in fact gone for develop-ment of Falcon 9.c

With Frank Morring, Jr.,in Washington.

Ex-Im ExpiresExport credit assistance now hingeson congressional action

COMMENTARY

Edited by Jen DiMascio

Managing Editor-Defense,Space & Security Jen DiMascio blogs

at:AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]


2011 2012 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

Export Credit Financing, 2011-13

Source: Congressional Research Service

U.S.

$B

illions

France GermanyU.S.China


23/94

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24/9422 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 6-19, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst

Frank Morring, Jr., and Amy Butler Washingtonand Mark Carreau Houston

SpaceXStallsLaunch failure

clouds SpaceXs future

with its best customer

Failure of its flagship Falcon 9launch vehicle on a crucial NASAmission puts the brakes on mo-

mentum SpaceX was enjoying as itmoved toward launching humans and

expensive national security payloadsfor the U.S. government.

While the International Space Sta-tion (ISS) crew can live without themore than 5,500 lb. of pressurized andunpressurized cargo that fell in frag-ments after SpaceXs seventh com-mercial resupply mission to the orbit-ing science lab exploded June 28, themishap leaves NASA without its owncargo route to the station and seriouslyhampers resupply overall.

It also adds uncertainty to the spaceagencys plans to begin using commer-cial vehicles to deliver astronauts tothe ISS, since it had selected a crew

version of the SpaceX Dragon cargovehicle as a candidate for the job. Andit may complicate the U.S. Air Forceplan to bring the Falcon 9 into com-petition with United Launch Alliance

(ULA) for military missions.For now, the Falcon 9 is grounded

while a mishap review board set upunder the companys FAA launch li-cense looks for the root cause of thefailure under the leadership of HansKoenigsmann, SpaceX vice presidentfor mission assurance.

Near term, the grounding has im-pacted the planned Aug. 8 Falcon 9launch of the U.S.-European Jason-3ocean-surface spacecraft from Van-denberg AFB, California, and sent themission partners on both sides of the

Atlantic back to the drawing board toarrange a new launch date, according

to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Administration.

The failure also leaves a full mani-fest of commercial SpaceX customers

without a ride to space until its causeit determined (see page 23).

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president

and COO, says it will take months tofind and fix the problem. An apparentoverpressurization in the second-stageliquid oxygen tank shortly before first-stage separation drew early attentionfrom SpaceX engineers.

The first-stage flight remainednominal, she says. We do not expectthis to be a first-stage issue. We sawsome pressurization indications in thesecond stage which we will be trackingdown and following up on.

SpaceX investigation teams orga-nized around propulsion, avionics andother engineering disciplines are ex-amining more than 3,000 telemetrychannels, including onboard video, and

building a fault tree for analysis. Com-pany officials say the impact on future

launches will depend on the progressand findings of the investigation.

The Falcon 9 was the third ISS-re-supply vehicle to fail since an Orbital

ATK Antares blew up shortly afterliftoff from Wallops Island, Virginia,on Oct. 28, 2014. A Russian Progresscargo-carrier failed to dock with thestation on April 28. NASA officials saythere are sufficient supplies on boardto support a six-person crew until Oc-tober, even if no more cargo is deliv-ered. Three more crewmembers are

scheduled to launch July 22 to main-tain the research pace on the ISS.

Another Progress mission was setfor launch early July 3, but its cargooffers little direct relief for the lossof the cargo atop the failed Falcon 9.However, containers of water packedin the Progress could take some pres-sure off the aging filtration system thatrecycles urine and condensate intodrinkable water for the crew.

A replacement filtration bed waspart of the lost cargo. Mike Suffredini,NASAs ISS program manager, saysthere is no near-term danger of deplet-ing the onboard water supply because

SPACE

CARLETON BAILIE/AW&ST PHOTOS

The Falcon 9 explosion (inset)

shortly after the June 28 launchto the ISS sends ripples across thespaceflight industry worldwide,with public and private payloadsscrambling for rides to orbit.


25/94AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 6-19, 2015 23

the filtration system already there isstill functioning. There are adequatesupplies of processed water on board,he says, and a Japanese H-II Transfer

Vehicle loaded heavily with water isscheduled to arrive in August.

Also lost was an International Dock-

ing Adapter (IDA) NASA was sendingup to accommodate its two plannedcommercial crew vehicles, BoeingsCST-100 and the crew version of theDragon. There is another IDA avail-able, and parts to build a replacement,

but the Falcon 9 mishap is a seriousdisruption to the work of getting theCrew Dragon ready to fly to an ISSdocking by the end of 2017 as planned.

William Gerstenmaier, associate ad-ministrator for human exploration andoperations, says NASA deliberatelychose to segregate cargo and crew as

it developed commercial routes to lowEarth orbit because more risk is ac-ceptable in cargo.

One of the advantages of the over-all program is we can learn from thisevent on cargo, he says. While it isunfortunate, it is still recoverable. Wecan understand what occurred withthe SpaceX team, and this informa-tion can be really important as wemove forward into the crew designsand flight.

NASA is already fighting a rear-

guard action in Congress to winenough funding to stay on schedule fora December 2017 first flight of at leastone of the commercial crew vehiclesin development. House and Senatelawmakers have cut the $1.24 billionNASA says it needs in fiscal 2016 tomeet the 2017 deadline.

The cargo resupply crunch may beeased in October, if ULA and NASAcan advance from December to Octo-

ber a planned delivery with an OrbitalATK Cygnus mounted as a stopgap

on an Atlas V. Gerstenmaier says thatmay be possible if range schedulingand other issues can be resolved. It

will be next spring at the earliest be-fore the Orbital ATK Antares vehiclemay be ready to return to flight withthe Russian RD-181 engine selected toreplace the AJ26 engine blamed in thatcompanys failure, he says.

While NASA sees a way to workaround the SpaceX failure, it comes ata terrible time for the companys cam-paign to win work for the Pentagon andU.S. intelligence community.

In May, SpaceX finally earned itscertification from the Air Force to com-

pete for national security payloads withULA, which has held a monopoly onnational security missions since it wasformed in 2006. USAF is scheduled toissue a request for proposals (RFP) inJuly for a launch to place the Air Forcesfirst GPS III into orbit, likely in 2017. It

will be the first competition in whichSpaceX is certified to take on ULA.It is unclear what impact the failure

will have on SpaceXs bid for the work.SpaceX had been viewed as likely tohave a good chance because the duel isstructured as a series of pass/fail crite-ria, followed by a price shoot-out. TheFalcon 9s pricing is far below anythingcited by ULA for the Atlas V.

At this time its too early to assessany impact that the Space X launchfailure has on future DOD launchmissions, said an Air Force spokes-

woman. The department is firmlycommitted to smoothly transitioningour launch enterprise with a continuedstrong focus on maintaining assuredaccess to space for National SecuritySpace missions.

The Air Force intends to issue asecond RFP in September for anotherGPS III launch, according to Col. DougPentecost, who is overseeing the pro-curement. In total, the service plansto compete launch services for up tofive GPS III launches, as well as those

for the Space-Based Infrared System,a National Reconnaissance Office sat-ellite, the AFSCP-9 mission and, pos-sibly, the final Defense MeteorologicalSatellite Program spacecraft.

The U.S. national-security launchprogram was already facing uncer-tainty over its use of Russias RD-180rocket engine to launch the Atlas V.The ongoing conflict in the EasternUkraine that started with Russias oc-cupation of the Crimean Peninsula has

triggered congressional pressure todrop the RD-180 and to apply restric-tions on how many more of them can

be acquired.Byron Callan, an aerospace analyst

with Capital Alpha Partners, predictsthe SpaceX mishap most likely willlead to continued purchases of Rus-sian RD-180 rocket engines in order topreserve two sources of space launchthis decade until new rockets and/orpropulsion systems are available nextdecade.

Overall, the launch failure triggered

a common response among those inand out of government.

We expected through the commer-cial cargo program we would lose some

vehicles, says Gerstenmaier. I didntthink we would lose them all in a one-

year time frame, but we have. I thinkthere is no negligence here, no realproblem. It just shows the challengesfacing engineering and spaceflight ingeneral.

Weve said it before, notes WillMarshall, the CEO and cofounder of

Planet Labs, which has now lost 34of its small Dove Earth-observationspacecraft flying as secondary pay-loads on the failed Antares and Fal-con 9. Space is hard.c

Amy Svitak Paris

Feast or FamineFalcon 9 failure highlights weaknesses

in commercial launch market

At a time when Russias heavy-liftProton has lost the confidenceof the commercial market, the

June 28 failure of a Space ExplorationTechnologies (SpaceX) Falcon 9 rocketraises long-standing questions as tohow many launch vehicles the mar-ket needs to remain healthy, and howmany it can sustain over time.

Up to now only rockets with stronggovernment backing have been able tosurvive on the roughly 20-25 commer-

cial geostationary satellites launchedto orbit each y

aviation week & space technology - july 6, 2015

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