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Departments

10 Feedback

14 The World

15 Up Front

16 Airline Intel

151 Classifed

152 Contact Us

153 Aerospace Calendar

theWorlD

14 taxiwayincidentat Johannesburg’s

Tambo International underscores

industry-wide problem

DeFense

18 randreportonF-35 program costs

draws Lockheed Martin rejoinder

that outdated data were used

19 eUleadersagree to greater defense

cooperation in theory, but common

capabilities seem far from a reality

22 modernizationofFrench army air

corps is underway with handover

of helos to operational unit

spaCe

24 acloserlookat development of

China’s powerful variable-thrust

engine for Chang’e 3 spacecraft

24 Gaia’sstar-mapping mission brings

scientists closer to gaining deeper

understanding of the Milky Way

rotorCraFt

26 eurocopteradviseschecks of fuel-

system alert devices on EC135s

following recent crash fndings

airtransport

28 avic’sma700turboprop enters

full-scale development phase with

a signifcantly revised design

30 asianlow-costcarriersstake

long-haul claims with big feet

moves and startup plans

aerospaCe2014

32 ondivergentpaths,commercial

and defense markets face similar

demands on program performance

33 Fromfghter competitions to the

growing demand for high-through-

put satcoms, 2014 will be a busy year

WatChpointsFor2014

34 hereare12areas to watch as 2014

looks certain to be a pivotal

year for aerospace and defense

DeFense&seCUritY

38 Globalmapand index show the

wide variety of conficts within

and between countries and regions

40 tensionsinasia are reminding

many observers of machinations

that preceded previous industrial-

age wars

DeFenseproFiles

42 alast-minutebudget deal will re-

lieve some pressure on U.S. defense

budget, but not structural problems

44 Canada’sarmed forces also sufer

from a lack of confdence in

the nation’s acquisition process

46 eUdefensespending has hit 1.55% of

GDP and 3.17% of total government

expenditure, lowest levels since ’06

47 U.K.likely to be more focused on

Afghan drawdown in 2014

than extending its capabilities

48 Budgetpressures forcing France to

to slow receipt of military equip-

ment, stretch program development

Aviation Week editors’ annual look at the year ahead features

sector-by-sector analyses in this issue and deep data online.

Among the coming milestones in 2014 are additional tests for

the Northrop Grumman X-47B.32

After a year of heavy order-taking in commercial aviation and with steep cuts looming in defense spending, execution of programs will be piv-otal in 2014. Development and production of new airliners must hit their targets, and defense and space programs must stay on track if industry is to deliver on its promises. That is the theme of Aerospace & Defense 2014, with its expanded analysis of global security concerns, defense programs and commercial aviation. We also look at business aircraft, rotorcraft, spacefight and demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services. Additional content at AviationWeek.com/Aerospace 2014. Cover design by Aviation Week Art Department.

ontheCover

32

AVIATION WEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

4 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/December 30, 2013/JAnUAry 6, 2014 aviationWeek.com/awst

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Winner 2013

ContentsDecember 30, 2013/January 6, 2014 Volume 175 Number 45

The Boeing 702SP satellite is the first and

only all-electric satellite, a game-changing

technological leap. The all-electric propulsion

system dramatically reduces spacecraft weight,

creating more affordable launch options as well

as the opportunity to add additional payload in

the 3-8kW range. Two 702SP satellites can even

be stacked on a single launch to reduce costs

further. Now, that’s the power of innovation.

airtransportproFiles

98 Withallof the Big Three mergers

approved, U.S. majors must

make 2014 the year of integration

102 europe’slow-costcarriers

expect better 2014, but legacy

airlines continue to struggle

106 asia-pacifclow-cost carrier

sector still in rapid development;

but some majors are struggling

108 therearesignsof turnaround

ahead for the Indian aviation

sector after years of turbulence

110 thethreebigMiddle East

airlines will have access to signif-

icantly improved infrastructure

112 impressivegrowth,huge steps

in quality and safety help turn

around Latin American airlines

114 russianairtransport industry

will exceed Soviet-era passenger

totals for the frst time in 2014

115 Globalaircargo industry is in

deep trouble and will need

years to recover, if it can at all

116 milestonesbeckonas major

programs use satellite-based

ATM systems to expand coverage

BUsinessaviation

119 Businessaircraftmakers plan wave

of new products for market still

recovering 2008 economic crisis

maintenanCe

125 aWin2014Commercial Fleet and

MRO Forecast projects commercial

MRO at $51.9 billion in 2014

126airframemromarket, including

heavy checks and mods, will

be worth about $17.5 billion in 2014

130 analyststrackingcommercial

aircraft turbine engine MRO market

see a growth period in 2014-23

49 russiadoesnotplan to cut its

military expenditures, even in

the face of economic stagnation

50 Germanspending on international

deployments is falling, as are

military personnel expenditures

51 acrosseurope,nationsare taking

innovative approaches to

foster home defense industries

despite budgets

52 middleeastnations are going

beyond new combat aircraft

and weapons, seeking ISR and

other assets

52 israelobligedto buy much of

its military hardware in U.S.,

spends small portion on domestic

procurement

54 largerChinesedefense budgets

funding aggressive modernization,

so PLA can strengthen regionally

56 Japanesemilitary focus areas

remain the islands facing

China, ballistic missile defense vs.

North Korea

56 about30%of South Korea’s

defense budget is investment in

new equipment; rest is for ops

and support

57 india’sdefensebudgetfor 2013-14

shows a more modest expansion,

refecting slower economic growth

57 asia-pacifcnationsexpect

to spend about $1.4 trillion on

military programs in 2013-18

DeFensesYstems

58 F-35continues to dominate global

fghter market, but rivals are

continuing with upgrade plans

62 specialmissions an increasingly

important adaptive role for

armed forces’ transport aircraft

66 Competitiongrowingas China

and new systems shake up the

$65.4 billion missile market

66 U.s.missileDefense Agency hopes

to conduct a successful fight test

of ground-based systems in 2014

68 astheU.s.looks for export

markets, Europe plays catch-up in

unmanned systems development

aerospaCesYstems

72 robinsonr66’s success has gal-

vanized rotorcraft’s key players to

take new look at single turbines

74 U.s.armyto select among four

competing designs for two

tiltrotors and two coaxial rotors

for pair of helos

75 massivecivilorders and a grow-

ing military sustainment form

the focus for engine makers

topteChnoloGies

78 Digitalnightvision and passive

precision targeting among

defense and space technologies

to watch in 2014

121 touchscreencockpits, combined

vision among technologies

that could make news in 2014

spaCesYstems

83 successfullaunchof the SES-8 sat-

com by SpaceX could signal seismic

shift in the launch-vehicle market

86 Growthinhigh-throughput satel-

lites is considered a signifcant

development in the industry

CommerCialairCraFt

91 majornewaircraft programs

are about to reach certifcation

in 2014, while others advance

96 newsingle-aisle airliners

being developed seem

anti-climactic after 787


32

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78 72

134 January2020 deadline for

ADS-B is high on the to-do list for

maintenance shop visits even now

136 mrotrends:OEMs entrench further

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138 Wearablecomputing devices

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141 Fromsecurityto new ratings,

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143 Companiesoffer avionics

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144 Kitsandotherpieces of test-

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December 30, 2013/January 6, 2014 Volume 175 Number 45

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154 reviews the year editor-in-chief

AW&ST Online

available the Friday before the issue

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Training, Training, TrainingFactors contributing to the re-

jected landing/go-around issue are several, as touched upon in “What Goes Around” (AW&ST Nov. 11/18, p. 44). In my air carrier experience, I found the FAA Advanced Quali-fcation Program (AQP) a suspect contributor to defcient line per-formance in, at least, the rejected landing and takeof events.

Air carrier AQP certifcation al-

without briefng or training, competency is determined by the mechanical ac-complishment of the maneuver. The environments are sterile and occurrences predictable. Absent is the scenario of fatigued pilots fying in wind and turbu-lence, vectored and tossed onto the approach with Air Trafc Control-imposed speed control and congested radio frequencies, all the while burning into book-value fuel reserves.

The focus is worthy, but myopic. Momentary instability, defned by committee, that requires approach abandonment in favor of another try in the same condi-tions—but with less fuel—is inappropriate. Clearly, we don’t train for the real world.

AQP preempts training. Of course, if we few as trained, the system would stop.Capt. (ret.) C. D. ZwingleAmerican AirlinesBurlINGAMe, CAlIF.

Training Underscored“Murky Mode” (AW&ST Dec. 16, p. 37) brought to mind a procedure we used

back when I was fying the Boeing 737NG with an autopilot similar (in operation, at least) to that on the 777.

It was company policy (and, I assumed, an industry standard) that any time we were fying with the autopilot of, the autothrottles had to be turned of (except for takeof). This policy was intended to, and could have helped, prevent a situation such as that of the Asiana Airlines Flight 214 crash at San Francisco International Airport on July 6.Capt. (ret.) Terry MasonAlaska AirlinesNOrMANDy PArk, WASh.

False analogies?In the up Front Column “Flying

Over the horizon” (AW&ST Nov. 4, p. 12) Jim Mathews’s insightful analy-sis describes the shift toward two-en-gine aircraft for long-haul routes and away from four engines. however, to-ward the end of the article he relates the number of Airbus A380s as a proportion of population by country (90 A380s for 2 million people in Dubai, versus 314 million Americans and no A380s, and China with a populace of 1.34 billion and fve A380s) as a way to further substantiate his analysis. This leaves me perplexed.

how can two unrelated variables indicate that a certain type of aircraft will or will not be in demand? The vast majority of u.S. air travel is domestic

FoUr-engine debaTe conTinUesyou do not have to be an accountant

to want to put reader Myron kayton’s views into context (AW&ST Dec. 2, p. 10). Accountants are messen-gers—not decision makers. however, accountants rarely count all the values related to risk and return and instead analyze and report what is easily con-verted into fnancial numbers. If more of the real, expected outcomes were faithfully tallied, the cost of higher-risk endeavors such as twin-engine long-haul fights over water or desolate areas could be much diferent.Thomas BrehmereSSeN, GerMANy

advocaTing For The a-10 I enjoyed Bill Sweetman’s recent

Commander’s Intent commentary, “Making Bacon,” about Warthogs on the chopping block (AW&ST Dec. 9, p. 15). I spent four years fying the hog and six fying the F-16 and, while it is a magnifcent aircraft, the F-16 (read F-35) cannot replace the A-10 on the battlefeld.

The decision-makers Sweetman refers to should step away from their desks and talk to the grunts whose lives depend upon close air support. I know what aircraft the man in the fox hole would prefer. Michael BennettGleNDAle, ArIz.

scepTical aboUT snp ‘Wish lisT’upon frst reading “Saltire Desires”

about an independent Scottish defense force (AW&ST Dec. 9, p. 34), I thought it was a joke. Then I realized that the Scottish National Party (SNP) has simply joined the long list of those who have allowed nationalistic fervor to blind them to economic reality.

Perhaps they would like to buy my 40-year-old Scottish Aviation Bulldog T.1 to serve as their light-attack and counterinsurgency contribution to NATO.Bernard RobertsonBlOOMFIelD hIllS, MICh.

Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes the opinions of its readers on issues raised in the magazine. Address letters to the Executive Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1200 G St., Suite 922, Washington, D.C. 20005. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-mail to: [email protected]

Letters should be shorter than 200 words, and you must give a genuine identification, ad-dress and daytime telephone number. We will not print anonymous letters, but names will be withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.

10 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/December 30, 2013/JAnuAry 6, 2014 aviationWeek.com/awst

and not on widebodies. The majority of 4,000-plus twin-engine Airbus and Boeing aircraft in use are single-aisle, short/medium haul. So not only are there no A380s, the proportion of 747s as a proportion of the population and overall feet size is small.

Air travel and feet distribution of aircraft are a much more complicated dynamic, and the native population of a country is the least relevant variable to make that point.

Other factors will take precedence: location on the planet, business model of airlines operating in the country, economic engine of the economy and demographics of population around the region are much more important.Taimur KhanreSTON, VA.

Feedback

lows reduced training frequency. It employs the “frst-look” concept by which,

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naval power of neighboring China. The Indian navy has been lobbying the government to clear the Barak missile purchase because it needs to resup-ply its Barak anti-missile defense-system-equipped warships. The proposal to buy 262 missiles—built by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems at a cost of 8.8 billion rupees ($142 million)—was approved by the defense acquisition council, headed by Defense Minister A.K. Antony on Dec. 23. The supersonic Barak has range of around 44 mi. A deal for purchasing Barak systems and missiles was signed in 2000, but acquisition plans were put on hold following a bribery scandal and investigation that has recently been resolved.

South Korea, BAE F-16 DealBAE Systems and South Korea have reached a fnal agreement on an up-grade program for 134 KF-16 fghters, which will be ftted with a Raytheon active, electronically scanned array

ROTORCRAFT

EC175 Pushed in Asia With certifcation of Eurocopter’s new EC175 expected early next year, the manufacturer is working to build interest in the helicopter in the Asian region. Eurocopter has 48 orders for the EC175, predominantly from oil and gas industry operators with a few orders for the VIP version. Despite a lack of orders from Asia, there are “a lot of ongoing discussions” with operators in this region, says a company executive. Overall, the EC175 orderbook is as strong as Eurocopter expected at this point in the program, the company says. It is expected to gain certifcation in early 2014, and deliveries to the frst three customers are likely to occur in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the EC145 T2 is expected to gain certifcation in the second quarter of 2014. This heli-copter is also available in a military version, and Eurocopter has received an order for 16 aircraft for Germany’s special forces.

AiR TRAnSPORT

777-9Xs for Cathay PacificHong Kong’s Cathay Pacifc has ordered 21 Boeing 777-9Xs for delivery in 2021-24, seeing the type as ideal for heavily trafcked routes to Europe and North America. Cathay will be a very early operator of the huge Boeing twinjet, which was launched into full-scale development in November and is due to enter service in 2020. The aircraft’s operating range of at least 8,200 nm (15,185 km) makes it well suited for Cathay Pacifc’s ultra-long-haul network, the airline says, citing a catalog price for the order of HKG$58 billion ($7.48 billion). Cathay now has 89 aircraft on order for delivery from 2014-24 and with a combined catalog value of HKG$215 billion. They include 48 Airbus A350s, among which are 26 A350-1000s. The Airbus type is smaller than the 777-9X but still its nearest competitor.

DEFEnSE

india To Buy israeli MissilesIndia will soon buy from Israel an additional 262 Barak-I anti-aircraft missiles for the navy, as part of an apparent bid to counter the growing

radars, new mission computers and new cockpit displays. The company has set up a new unit at Alliance Air-port, near Fort Worth, to run the KF-16 fghter updates and to pursue up-date programs for the F-16, F-15 and F/A-18. About 300 people are expect-ed to be employed there by the end of 2014. The frst of a group of South Korean air force F-16s will arrive in 2014 to start modifcations for the test program, alongside a large corporate jet that will act as a fying testbed. F-16 fight tests are due in 2016. BAE Systems estimates that 1,000 F-16s worldwide are upgrade candidates. The competing USAF/Lockheed Mar-tin Combat Avionics Programmed Ex-tension Suite upgrade program, using a Northrop Grumman radar, is not yet fully funded and may be vulnerable to budget cuts. Singapore has said an F-16 upgrade is a higher priority than an order for F-35 Joint Strike Fight-ers, and Turkey is considered another important target.

The World For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com

14 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/December 30, 2013/JAnuAry 6, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

Tambo international Taxiway incident Underscores industry-Wide Problem

The South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA) says the crew of a British Airways Boeing 747-400 (G-BNLL) taxiing for takeoff on Runway 3 Left at Johannesburg’s Tambo Interna-tional Airport at night on Dec. 22 was given the proper instructions before the aircraft’s right wing struck the second story of a building. The London-bound 747, with 185 passen-gers and 17 crew, was cleared to the takeoff position using taxiway Bravo, which intersects the narrower “taxilane” Mike near the runway threshold. The crew mistakenly exited Bravo onto taxilane Mike before striking the building. A caution note on the ground movement chart for Tambo alerts pilot to the presence of taxilane Mike. Four ground-handling employ-ees were injured by “debris” as the winglet and outboard section of the 747’s wing sliced through the brick structure, causing substantial damage to both the wing and the building. No injuries were reported for the passengers and crew, who exited the aircraft through a door. The accident highlights the substantial problem the airline industry faces with ramp and taxiway damage. Flight Safety Foundation states there are approximately 27,000 ramp accidents or incidents per year worldwide—one for every 1,000 departures—causing an estimated $10 billion a year in damage, injuries and aircraft downtime.

Up Front

commentary

Yet the past few months have seen stark harbingers of looming pain. In September, right after Boeing delivered the 223rd and fnal U.S. Air Force C-17, the company announced the line would close in 2015. A month later, South Ko-rea rejected the Boeing F-15 for its F-X 3 competition, dooming the proposed Si-lent Eagle variant and probably killing the line after the last of Saudi Arabia’s current order is delivered in 2018.

In December, the Boeing F/A-18E/F lost the Brazilian FX-2 competition, one of several key international defeats. A pre-solicitation announcement for 36 additional Super Hornets in fscal 2015, placed by the Navy at the FedBizOpps.gov website in October, was withdrawn several days later, probably under pres-sure from the Defense Department. The last Super Hornet is scheduled to be delivered in 2016, and Boeing said it must decide this March whether it will preserve the line with company funding.

The problem is not confned to Boe-ing’s legacy programs. Lockheed Martin, which delivered the last F-22 last year, says its F-16 backlog only takes produc-tion through mid 2017. Beechcraft’s last T-6 is slated for delivery in 2016. Bell-Boeing’s V-22 program will expire

Remember the Last Supper? This wave of 1990s defense com-

pany mergers was intended to solve the industry’s post-Cold

War overcapacity problem. If overcapacity is measured in corpo-

rate names or headquarters staf, then mission accomplished.

Unfortunately, overcapacity is best measured in factories and

programs, and aside from Grumman’s F-14 and Northrop’s B-2,

no active military aircraft lines were terminated in the 1990s.

Whether through reinvention or exports, most lines stayed alive.

Program PreservationDisaster For U.S. military aircraft industry?

C-130s in constant demand but with no replacements in sight.

Today, the C-17 line is closing just as the U.S. is pivoting its forces toward Asia. This means the country will need greater strategic mobility just as it is killing its only strategic airlifter, with no funding in sight for a replacement. The faction of the Navy that wants to continue Super Hornet procurement is also mindful of the risk of killing the old before the new F-35C has proven itself for carrier operations.

Given the challenging top-line defense budget outlook, little can be done to save more than one or two of these programs, if any. But what is more important, the U.S. can change the way it manages aircraft programs. Today, the entire sys-tem is geared toward racing programs through at the fastest possible pace. The services are incentivized to spend money when budgets are good, and to focus on lower unit costs through greater produc-tion volume. Companies are motivated to bring in revenues and profts, lawmakers to bring jobs to their districts.

These are understandable motiva-tions, but they neglect the need to pre-serve industrial assets. The alternative is to tolerate slightly higher unit costs (and greater risk of being caught by a top-line budget down-cycle) to make programs last longer. Rather than procuring 48 planes per year for 10 years, why not 36 per year for 13 years? Why not use ex-port orders to stretch out domestic buys, rather than as an opportunity to raise production rates? The Defense Depart-ment needs to stretch procurement at the expense of program economics.

A belated move toward prioritizing industrial-base concerns in procurement will be welcome for the next generation of programs. But for this decade, the industry will see factory closures and thousands of layofs, along with the loss of national defense assets. The real post-Cold-War day of reckoning for military aircraft is looming large. c

around 2020, unless funding is found for additional aircraft. While no other U.S. military rotorcraft lines are threatened, 2011-18 procurement is being cut in half.

That leaves the U.S. with two secure, dedicated fxed-wing military production lines (and only one prime contractor): Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and C-130J (see above). Boeing is building its KC-46 tanker and P-8 maritime patrol deriva-tives of commercial jetliners, but the P-8 is slated to wind down around 2020, too.

There are few new programs in the pipeline. The Air Force’s T-X trainer should generate an of-the-shelf jet production line, but not until the next decade. The Long Range Strike-Bomb-er is just starting development, and we are unlikely to see any production aircraft until 2025, at the earliest.

There is not much planning behind this carnage. While the C-130J is one of the few secure lines, with healthy ongo-ing procurement for the Air Force, Spe-cial Operations Command, Marines and export customers, it only barely survived the ax. Just eight years ago, the Defense Department moved to end procurement, efectively killing the C-130J line. If this move had not been averted, there would be an aging feet of 40-plus-year-old

aviationWeek.com/awst� AviAtion�Week�&�SpAce�technology/December�30,�2013/JAnuAry�6,�2014 15

By Richard Aboulafa

Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafa is vice president of analysis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

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commentary

Evidence is strengthening that Chi-nese commercial aviation—until now largely unafected by the low-cost revo-lution—will undergo profound change in coming years, although nothing rapid should be expected in an industry man-aged by a government that, while eager for reform, is always wary of instability.

According to China Eastern’s plan, wholly owned subsidiary China United Airlines, based at Beijing Nanyuan airport, will be converted to budget op-erations, industry ofcials say. The feet for budget operations will probably be about 25 Boeing 737-700s and 737-800s. The carrier’s 737 feet numbers 32, but some of those aircraft are fown as VIP jets, probably for the military.

China United is closely associated with the air force, which owns Nanyuan, a base in Beijing’s southern suburbs at which it allows limited civil operations. Nanyuan is one of the few facilities in China that could be counted as the sort of secondary airport tradi-tionally favored by budget airlines. This is China Eastern’s second attempt to start budget operations. Since 2012 it and Qantas have been trying to set up a franchisee of the Austra-lian group’s Jetstar budget brand in Hong Kong. Op-

CAAC looks serious about promoting budget

airlines, and China Eastern is planning one

Low-Cost Headway

ponents such as Cathay Pacifc and its subsidiary Dragonair argue that Jetstar Hong Kong lacks the local characteris-tics needed for registration as an airline based in the self-governing city. For China Eastern, one reason for the Hong Kong venture is to pick up experience from Jetstar it could apply on the main-land. The move to convert China United before gaining Jetstar experience may indicate that the airline’s Hong Kong hopes are waning.

Meanwhile, the CAAC looks like it means business in calling for the devel-opment of budget airlines. It announced the policy in a July meeting, but there has been a lingering suspicion that was merely singing, without much convic-tion, from the reformist songsheet of the national leadership that took power a year ago. It had not previously supported budget aviation. With its year-end industry meeting on Dec. 23 it has now declared concrete measures, while perhaps widening its advocacy to

include long-haul low-cost operations.Chief among those measures is level-

ing a playing feld slanted toward the three big network carriers—Air China, China Southern and China Eastern. “The CAAC will adopt more fexible policies in relation to route rights, schedule times and fares, with the aim of creating a policy environment that is fair to low-cost airlines, with a relaxed policy towards them,” the CAAC told the industry at a closed-door meeting.

A key problem for any carrier compet-ing with the big three has been their greater infuence with the CAAC, which has tended to favor them in allocating strong routes with attractive runway slot times. They also fnd it easier to get pilots and mechanics and, therefore, per-mission to buy aircraft. China’s biggest budget carrier, Spring Airlines, has evi-dently run into such limits, since it has developed a good deal more slowly than expected, despite its cost advantages.

“Active support for low-cost airlines is one of the major tasks for the CAAC in 2014,” the agency says. It will “re-quire” airports to support and cooper-ate with low-cost airlines—although most airports belong to local govern-ments and likely will resist making unproftable moves. The CAAC wants more terminal, runway and apron ca-pacity allocated to budget airlines.

The push includes a direction to the major airlines—such as China East-ern—to consider low-cost operations. The CAAC has also told them to pay close attention to “the low-cost market on international routes as an opportu-nity for rapid growth in outbound tour-ism and to expand low-cost business.” That seems to mean budget operation of widebody aircraft, similar to Jetstar and Malaysia’s successful AirAsiaX.

The CAAC is renewing long-standing calls for airlines to focus more on international business. This has largely fallen on deaf ears; Chinese airlines lack competitiveness with foreign carriers. c

Airline Intel

16 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/December 30, 2013/JAnuAry 6, 2014 aviationWeek.com/awst

By Bradley Perrett

Asia-Pacifc Bureau Chief Bradley Perrett blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/thingswithwings

[email protected]

China Eastern Airlines, already the major Chinese airline

with the greatest focus on low-cost operations, is planning to

operate a mainland budget subsidiary from Beijing. At the same

time, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is step-

ping up its campaign to promote low-cost airlines, setting aside

its long-standing disdain for the potentially destabilizing model.

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A Rand Corp. report produced to guide future U.S. Air

Force program plans has concluded that the F-35 Joint

Strike Fighter program will cost more than three sin-

gle-service programs would have done. That conclusion drew

a sharp riposte from Lockheed Martin, which accused the re-

port’s authors of using “outdated data” that overstated the F-35’s

projected operating costs by a factor of two.

Lockheed Martin based its criticism on numbers that cannot be found in the report. The company declined to give a source for those numbers, stat-ing that they were “government data.” The Joint Strike Fighter program ofce distanced itself from the argu-ment, saying it had “no real issues” with the report, and did not confrm any of the company’s fgures.

Rand’s Project Air Force team pro-duced the report, which was request-ed in 2012 by then-commander of Air Force Materiel Command Gen. Donald Hofman, as it became clear the JSF would be running many years behind the schedule that was planned up to 2010.

The study was based on historic data up to November 2011, including the fscal year 2010 selected acquisi-tion report (SAR). Rand, a think tank founded by the Air Force and still closely associated with the service, did not use the fiscal year 2011 SAR (issued in March 2012) which disclosed a three-year slip in development and actually reported higher cost projec-tions than the 2010 report.

Because the JSF program is in-complete, and because no other joint fghter program has been completed as planned, the researchers used data from a variety of programs—from the F/A-18E/F and F-22 fighters to the T-6A turboprop trainer and E-8C surveillance platform—to gauge the historical cost increases in joint and single-service programs.

They did not focus on absolute costs, but on the percentage growth of esti-mated costs between the launch of a full-scale development program (Milestone B; MS B) and points five and nine years after MS B, the latter

corresponding to the most recent JSF data available in late 2011.

The first conclusion drawn from this data was that the average esti-mated cost of all joint aircraft pro-grams grew faster than that of single-service programs at both the fve- and nine-year points, and that the lowest cost-growth rate of any joint program was higher than the fastest-growing single-service program: Even the T-6 grew faster than the C-17, which came

Bill Sweetman Washington

A Billion Here…Rand report dismisses joint-program savings

Defense

close to being canceled because of its cost growth.

The researchers used historical data to estimate production cost saved as a result of joint programs: that is, the beneft of lower unit costs over a longer production run. They found that the maximum beneft for an ideal two-service program—where two services acquire equal numbers of 100% com-mon aircraft—was a 13% cut in unit production cost and 20% in overall ac-quisition (assuming that production costs were four times research and development costs).

But these theoretical savings were more than offset by the greater cost

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Joint Aircraft

Cost-Growth Factor

Single-Service Aircraft

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80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

098765

Years Past Milestone B

41%Joint Programs

(JSF, JPATS T-6A, JSTARS E-8, V-22)

Joint Program Costs Grow Faster

Note: Milestone B is approval of full-scale development and low-rate

initial production and validation of the cost estimates

Single-Service Programs

(C-17, F/A-18E/F, F-22, T-45 TS)

increase rates observed in practice, making the joint program more costly for both parties. Also, even this calcula-tion did not take into account the higher production and development costs that would be incurred if the partner servic-es procured diferent versions.

The second part of the Rand report applied this learning to the F-35 pro-gram as compared with three notional single-service programs. The MS B baseline R&D cost of three separate

Rand researchers found that R&D and production cost increases were consistently higher for joint programs than for single-service programs.

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/December 30, 2013/JAnuAry 6, 2014 19

programs was based on the JSF pro-gram’s projections that its R&D cost would be 60% of three single-service programs.

Rand estimated the baseline procure-ment cost of the separate programs on assumptions that favored JSF. No cred-it was taken for commonality between the three separate aircraft. Likewise, the MS B baseline operations and sup-port cost assumed zero commonality between the three aircraft and elimi-nated all economies of scale.

Researchers compared the actual growth of F-35 estimates at the nine-year mark with growth rates for three separate programs based on historic growth with the F-22, the most com-parable single-service fghter program. The same adjustments were applied to O&S costs, although a later and higher estimate of F-22 operational costs (at 14 years after MS B) was also included.

The study’s conclusion: The JSF esti-mated life-cycle cost (LCC) in 2010 was already higher than that of three single-service programs. “Under none of the plausible conditions that we analyzed did JSF have a lower LCC than the no-tional single-service programs.” The re-port does not recommend any changes to the JSF program, but advises the Air Force to avoid joint projects in future.

Lockheed Martin claims in response that the Rand numbers are outdated and that “the U.S. government stated the O&S [operations and sustainment]costs for the program are approxi-mately $782 billion for a 55-year-long program—not $1.5 trillion as cited in the Rand report.”

The $1.5 trillion figure occurs no-where in the report, which cites life-time F-35 O&S as $487 billion in 2002 dollars. This is based on the number in the fscal year 2010 SAR, adjusted to compensate for 409 Navy/Marine aircraft eliminated from the program.

Neither is Lockheed Martin able or willing to provide a source for its $782 billion fgure. The 2012 SAR estimated those costs at $617 billion in 2012 dol-lars, or $1,113 billion in then-year dollars for operations beyond 2065. That is the closest to $1.5 trillion of any published fgures.

More recently, program ofce direc-tor Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan was quoted as saying the then-year esti-mate had been revised downward to $857 billion. One industry source says the revision is largely or entirely the result of changed infationary assump-

Amy Svitak Munich and Brussels

Falling ShortEU leaders agree to greater defense cooperation,

but have far to go to build common capabilities

Against a backdrop of increasingly severe budget pressures across Europe, hopes that sovereign

governments would agree to jointly develop military equipment dimmed in December, when a defense summit in Brussels failed to produce specifc actions on development of European unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and other cooperative programs.

During a two-day meeting of the European Council, 28 heads of state agreed to move forward, albeit slowly, on joint development of common road-maps and requirements in key areas. In addition to a next-generation UAV, these include air-to-air refueling, sat-ellite communications and new cyber- security projects.

However, while member states de-clined to make concrete commitments

to jointly developing such capabilities beyond endorsing their general outline, the fact that all 28 EU governments agreed to discuss joint defense strat-egy is viewed as a sign of progress.

“These are projects on which we can work now,” EU President Herman Van Rompuy said in remarks following the meeting.

During the summit, which marks the European Council’s frst defense meeting in fve years, member states agreed to a “strategic reassessment” in mid-2015 to measure progress on all four defense-capability areas promot-ed by the European Defense Agency (EDA) as ripe for collaboration.

On the subject of UAVs, member states have already endorsed devel-opment of a common staf target for a European medium-altitude, long-

20

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900

800

700

600

500

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300

200

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JSF

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O&S (F-22 cost-growth rate at 9.7 years)

O&S = Operations & SupportRDT&E = Research, development, test and engineering

JSF Costs Grew Faster Than F-22’s

tions, in which case it would have no bearing on the Rand report because it uses base-year dollars. A JSF program ofce ofcial agrees that “a lot of the change is inflationary” and says the ofce is still working with industry to reduce O&S costs.

Lockheed Martin’s assertion that the Rand data are “outdated”—echoed in a Pratt & Whitney statement—may not be in the contractors’ interest. The Rand report uses fscal year 2010 SAR data that are actually 10% lower than the most recent ofcial numbers. c

The JSF is on track to exceed the projected life-cycle costs of three single-service programs, the report concluded.


endurance (MALE) system, though government resources have not been committed to it.

“For now, the one thing that’s been done is development of the military requirement, and the next thing is de-velopment of the technical description of what the system should be like,” an aide to the European Commission—the check-writing arm of the EU—said in an interview Dec. 19.

Once technical requirements are de-fned, however, “the member states will be asked to confirm their intention to participate in this project,” the aide said.

Earlier in 2013, defense contractors in France, Germany and Italy called on European governments to fund devel-opment of a pan-European unmanned aerial vehicle that would give EU na-tions a chance to catch up in the area of UAV development. The efort, ini-tiated by Airbus Defense & Space in Germany, France’s Dassault Aviation and Italy’s Finmeccanica, was a reac-tion to France’s decision in May to pur-chase up to 16 U.S.-built MQ-9 Reapers to quickly shore up ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) gaps highlighted during the nation’s inter-vention against Islamist rebels in Mali.

Italy and the U.K. already operate Reapers, with France and the Nether-lands to follow suit.

Under the auspices of the EDA, in November France, Germany, Greece, It-

generation of European communica-tions satellites.

Germany, Spain, France, Italy and U.K. currently operate their own mili-tary communications satellite systems, a number of which are slated to reach the end of their service life in the next few years.

“A roadmap has been proposed on preparing the next generation of satel-lite communications, and for closer co-operation between the member states, but we’re not there at the moment, where we have defined the require-ments and the targets,” the Commis-sion aide said.

In the area of air-to-air refueling, the council welcomed progress achieved to date, which last year saw nine EU coun-tries plus Norway sign a letter of intent for considering pooled acquisition of a tanker aircraft. Led by the Netherlands, the new aircraft—possibly a Multirole Tanker Transport based on the Airbus A330—would be available for European users in 2020, the aide said.

Council members also discussed—but did not approve—joint funding of military activities, such as those led by France in the Central African Republic.

France has asked for EU fnancial assistance in the peacekeeping opera-tion, a security mission that French President Francois Hollande has said is being conducted on behalf of Euro-pean security overall. c

aly, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain established a MALE UAV user com-munity to exchange information and best practices. Under a separate EDA initiative, eight European countries—including Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, France, Italy and the U.K.—have pooled €50 million ($68 million) collectively to research integra-tion of UAVs into European airspace.

“This is an investment program for research into how [UAVs] could be en-tered into non-segregated airspace,” a Commission aide said.

The Council also approved a goal of establishing a regulation for EU-wide UAV certifcation by 2016, a move that is welcomed by industry.

“Certifcation of defense equipment is a nightmare in Europe,” one senior European industry ofcial said in Mu-nich on the eve of the summit. “Some 20% of development costs are just for certifcation.”

He said while the outcome of the Eu-ropean Council summit was likely to prove a disappointment in some ways, the fact that governments are address-ing the need for common certifcation rules by 2016 is promising.

“At least they are working on it,” he said.

In the area of satellite communica-tions, fve countries are joining to form a users group with the goal of develop-ing a roadmap for preparing the next-

DefenseC

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The Netherlands is joining Italy, the U.K. and, more recently, France, as the latest Reaper operator in Europe.

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22 aviation week & space technology/December 30, 2013/JanUary 6, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

Tony Osborne Le Luc, France

NH90s and Tigers are set to

spearhead change for French army

helicopter operations

With the handover of the frst examples of the NH90 Caiman support and Eurocopter Tiger HAD attack helicopters to an operational unit, the aviation wing

of the French army has begun its long-awaited moderniza-tion efort.

Three NH90 tactical transport helicopters and two Eu-rocopter EC665 Tiger HADs have been delivered to the 1st Combat Helicopter Regiment based at Phalsbourg, near Strasbourg, and over the next few months crews will hone their operational capabilities in readiness for potential de-ployed operations by July 2014.

The introduction of the two types marks a major change for the army air wing, which remains reli-ant on the 1960s-vintage Aerospatiale-built SA330 Puma and various versions of the SA342 Gazelle. Both types have been heavily used in recent French theaters, including Mali during Operation Serval and in the ongoing Operation Sangaris, also in the Central African Republic.

The service’s air division has enjoyed some mod-ernization in recent years. The introduction of the EC665 Tiger HAP gave it a taste of a dedicated attack-helicopter platform, but the HAP version is limited by its inability to carry precision-guided munitions, which means the aircraft had only the 30-mm cannon as its primary weapon in Afghani-stan and Mali. Limited numbers of the EC725 Cara-cal and AS532 Cougar are also in service to back up the ag-ing Pumas, but these were mainly meant to support special operations forces.

The introduction of the Tiger HAD, however, provides the service with AGM-114 Hellfre missile capability, allow-ing commanders to start phasing out Gazelles ftted with the venerable MBDA HOT long-range anti-tank missiles. While the NH90 is a considerably more capable aircraft than its predecessors, it is signifcantly more complex.

As part of the type’s introduction, the army air corps, jointly with the navy—which operates the naval NH90 Caiman Marine variant—have opened a training facility, CFIA, at Le Luc, in southeastern France, to bring crews up-to-speed on the type.

The frst crews destined for the NH90 have been cherry-picked from other types, but the air branch plans to begin instructing ab initio pilots at a joint training center at Dax, near the Pyrenees, in 2015. Despite the helicopter being inducted into the inventory back in 2005, Tiger pilots are still being cross-trained from other types. This is slated to change in 2014, when the frst ab initio crews will enter the

joint French-German Tiger training school at Le Luc.“The NH90 training here at Le Luc is a model for how we

will do things in the future,” explains Brig. Gen. Marc Demier, commander of army air corps helicopter training.

CFIA introduces the idea of training both aircrews and engineers on the same site, unlike for the Tiger, for which aircrews are trained at Le Luc while engineers and mechan-ics receive instruction at Fassburg, Germany. Simulators are also heavily used; roughly 70% of the training fying hours for the type will be completed in simulator facilities at CFIA, a 50% increase over the simulator hours logged by Tiger pilots.

Several other European NH90 operators have expressed an interest in the facilities, including Spain and Belgium. Spain already has instructors at Le Luc to train pilots on the Tiger, although other nations using CFIA would have to supply their own aircraft. The French army air wing will have eight aircraft at the school to support all branches of the service. That number has temporarily dropped, with the move of three aircraft to the 1st Combat Helicopter Regi-ment, but new deliveries to the army air division will boost the numbers in the coming months.

The army air wing is buying 68 NH90s in the tactical trans-port confguration, which was ordered in two batches of 34. These will replace the majority of the SA330 Pumas still in operation, although the defense ministry is hoping to upgrade approximately 30 with modernized avionics to keep the type in operational service until at least 2025.

The defense ministry already has begun modernizing the feet of AS532 Cougars with a new avionics suite and au-topilot as well as electro-optical systems. Several of these aircraft, known as the Cougar “Renove,” began reentering service in 2012.

The government’s military program law calls for the intro-duction of 38 Caimans for the army air sector between 2014-20, along with 16 Tigers. Paris intends to reduce its buy of 80 Tigers to 60 during the course of the program law, though Eurocopter will be partially compensated with more conver-sions of the helicopters from HAP to HAD confguration. The reduction in feet size may also result in a corresponding reduction in the number of aircrews being trained and in roughly 10% fewer annual fight hours in the coming years. c

DEFENSE

New Teeth

The NH90 Caiman and Eurocopter Tiger HAD (foreground) are likely to become familiar sights

during future French operational deployments.

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Bradley Perrett Beijing

Responsive ThrustChina opens up on development of Chang’e 3’s main engine

Among the chal-lenges Chinese engineers had

to overcome in achiev-ing a landing on the Moon, one of the tricki-est was developing a powerful variable-thrust engine for the job—one that could re-sponsively throttle up and down as needed to get the probe to lu-nar orbit, then deliver it to its landing point, stopping on the way to survey the terrain.

Chinese develop-ment engineers over-came many roadblocks to bring the engine to fruition. It is the main powerplant for the Chang’e 3 lunar probe, says the chief designer for the propulsion pro-gram, Jin Guangming. Generating 7.5 kilonewtons (1,690 lb.) of thrust, it is three times as power-ful as the main powerplant of China’s Shenzhou manned spacecraft, Jin says, emphasizing that the main difculty in development was not the large increase in output but, rather, achieving a wide range of variable thrust, precision con-trol, high performance (presumably meaning efciency) and durability.

The Academy of Aerospace Propul-sion Technology, part of China Aero-space Science and Technology Corp., the country’s main supplier of launch-ers and spacecraft, spearheaded the engine’s design. Chang’e 3 arrived on the Moon on Dec. 14 GMT.

Chang’e 3 is the frst mission in which the engine has been used for a probe, Jin tells state news agency China News

Service, leaving open the possibility that it has had other applications. Its charac-teristics include optimal performance at full thrust, he says, while in the range of 1.5-5 kilonewtons it must meet the chal-lenge of reliably shifting to any needed output. The engine was required to

fire during the jour-ney to the Moon—for course correction and to demonstrate its functionality—then to relight to bring the probe into a lunar or-bit and brake it for the controlled descent, during which it had to responsively deliver variable thrust. It had to power up again to arrest descent so the probe could assess and adjust its landing point, and then take the craft down for a controlled descent until shutting down at an altitude of 3 me-ters. The descent was autonomous, without ground control.

The academy began researching variable-thrust engines in 1996-

2000, says Jin. Development of the en-gine began in 2008, and many problems were encountered. The engine was test-ed 100 times with an accumulated fring period exceeding 60,000 sec. The aim was to ensure it could perform without fault for 20 min. Ground testing was

complete by the time of the November 2012 Zhuhai air show, where the engine was exhibited.

Based on analysis of a photo of a display version of the engine, one U.S. propulsion expert says it is most like a throttleable monopropellant hydrazine engine, although “there is not enough evidence in the photo to rule out a dual-propellant approach burning hy-drazine with nitrogen tetroxide as the oxidizer.”

In development, “the frst difculty was controlling weight,” says Jin. The engineers would have liked to have increased the size of the nozzle, to ex-tract as much efciency as possible in generating the high thrust, but they had to deal with weight and dimen-sion limits. In particular, a large nozzle would have demanded longer landing legs, which would have increased the chance of an unstable touchdown. As exhibited at Zhuhai, the engine’s noz-zle was not at all small.

Another problem was dissipating heat during operation. To avoid in-terference with the equipment on the spacecraft, a heat shield was needed, but that obstructed the dissipation of heat, thereby affecting the engine’s reliability. The developers dedicated innumerable research, testing and re-peated redesign hours into overcoming this difculty, says Jin.

The nozzle of the engine’s thrust chamber uses a special alloy plus coat-ings to resist oxidation at high tempera-tures. The nozzle’s walls are as thin as several hundred microns. Thickness and shape vary. To ensure the precision of the shape, the nozzle was formed and worked in a single piece, says Jin. c

SPACE

Chang’e 3’s main engine was exhibited at the Zhuhai air

show in 2012.

Amy Svitak Paris

Cosmic CensusEurope’s $1.3-billion Gaia to map Milky Way in unprecedented detail

With the launch of Europe’s Gaia star-mapping mission, scientists are one step closer

to deciphering the history of the Milky Way, and to predicting how it might evolve in the future.

Equipped with twin silicon-carbide telescopes built around a one-billion-

pixel focal array—the largest ever built—the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Gaia mission is designed to sur-vey a billion stars in the galaxy, pro-viding scientists with the most precise 3-D map to date for understanding its composition and evolution.

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sample of what is out there, where it is, how it is moving, how [dark] mat-ter is distributed, where and when stars formed, and where and when the chemical elements of which we are made were created,” says Gaia’s U.K. Principal Investigator Gerry Gilmore.

ESA says the spacecraft and its so-

phisticated instruments are designed to measure the angular position of stars between 7-300 microseconds of arc—100 times the accuracy of ESA’s 1989 Hipparcos mission, and equivalent to a terrestrial measurement of an astro-naut’s thumbnail on the lunar surface.

The resulting census will help astron-omers determine the position, motion and properties of each star—attributes that can provide clues about their his-tory—to create a “family tree” of the galaxy. ESA says the motions of these stars can then be viewed rapidly in for-ward or reverse, to determine more about how the galaxy was formed and to learn more about its ultimate fate.

Gaia blasted off at 6:12 a.m. local time on Dec. 19 atop a Soyuz ST-B rocket from ESA’s spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. About 10 min. later, af-ter separation of the frst three stages, the Fregat upper stage ignited, deliv-ering Gaia into a temporary parking orbit at an altitude of 175 km (109 mi.). A second firing of the Fregat 11 min. later took Gaia into its transfer orbit, followed by spacecraft separation at 42 min. after liftof. With the 2,034-kg Gaia on its way to the L2 Lagrange point 1.5 million km from Earth, ESA said it has established ground telemetry and atti-tude control from its operations center

in Darmstadt, Germany, and that the spacecraft is now activating its systems.

Engineers commanded Gaia to per-form the frst of two critical thruster fr-ings Dec. 20 to ensure it is on the right trajectory toward L2. About 20 days after launch, a second critical burn is expected to insert the spacecraft into its operational orbit, beginning a four-month commissioning phase in which all of the systems and instruments will be turned on, checked and calibrated before beginning its fve-year mission.

Led by France, Germany and the U.K., the €940 million ($1.3 billion) Gaia mission was equipped by EADS-Astrium, starting with a €317 million contract awarded by ESA in May 2006.

In the course of its five-plus year mission, Gaia will observe more than 40 million objects per day, collecting 100 terabytes of raw data and yielding 1 petabyte of processed and archived data. Even after being compressed by software, the data produced is expect-ed to fll over 30,000 CD ROMs.

Over a decade in the making, Gaia is two years behind schedule and 16% over budget, owing to technical issues with the satellite’s instruments and delays due to a crowded manifest in Kourou. Much of the cost growth resulted from technical issues that extended manu-facturing and testing of the spacecraft subsystems, notably the polishing of Gaia’s 10 mirrors—including two large primary mirrors—and assembly and test of the focal plane, a 0.38-square-meter (4-sq.-ft.) camera comprising 106 charge-coupled devices (CCD), each of which is efectively a miniature camera.

More recently, a technical glitch that slipped the launch one month to Dec. 19 involved faulty transponder com-ponents (built by Thales Alenia Space of Italy) that generate timing signals for downlinking science data. ESA did not identify the in-orbit satellite with the faulty transponder component that prompted the agency to delay the mission one month, but said it would replace the parts prior to Gaia’s launch as a precautionary measure.

Gaia is the second consecutive Soyuz launch from French Guiana to be delayed in 2013. O3b Networks postponed a planned late-September Soyuz launch of four communications satellites built by Thales Alenia Space due to a technical problem discovered on four similar O3b satellites launched earlier in 2013. The four spacecraft are now slated to launch in 2014. c

SPACE

Tony Osborne London

Fueling ConcernFaulty fuel-system

alerts eyed in two

recent crashes of

Eurocopter helicopters

Eurocopter is recommending worldwide checks of the fuel systems on its EC135 twin-engine

light-helicopter.Two Eurocopter alert service bul-

letins (ASB), followed by emergency airworthiness directives from the European Aviation Safety Agency, are calling on operators of the type to carry out mandatory one-time checks of the aircraft’s fuel supply system and report the results to the manufacturer. This will provide an up-to-date feet status regarding the type’s fuel tank sensors; a second ASB introduces a revision of the fight manual with re-gard to the low fuel warning and the fuel pump caution indications.

The checks afect more than 1,100 of the popular twin-engine helicopter, which is in service with law-enforce-ment agencies, air ambulance opera-tors and militaries globally.

Concerns have emerged in the wake of a fatal crash in Glasgow city center on Nov. 29. Ten people died when an EC135 T2, operated for Police Scotland by U.K. operator Bond Air Services, crashed through the roof of the Clutha Vaults public house. All three crew—a civilian pilot and two police ofcers —died in the aircraft, while six patrons were killed within the building; a sev-enth patron succumbed to his injuries in the hospital later.

Within two weeks of the acci-dent, Bond unilaterally grounded its EC135s—disrupting operations with many of the U.K.’s air ambulances—when engineers discovered supply-tank fuel gauging errors on some air-craft. According to Eurocopter, Bond’s tests found that the fuel sensors, which also measure fuel levels in the supply tanks of another aircraft operated by Bond, had incorrectly indicated the amount of fuel available.

ROTORCRAFT

A Soyuz ST-B lofts Europe’s Gaia star-mapping mission toward the L2 Lagrange point Dec. 19 from Kourou, French Guiana.

eSa


could have an impact on the payload capability of some heavier-mission-equipped aircraft such as those used by police forces.

The fuel issue does not, however,

represent a clear line of inquiry for the accident probe. So far, investiga-tors have said that the aircraft struck the roof of the building with a high rate of descent and low or negligible forward speed.

“All main rotor blades were attached at the time of the impact, but neither the main rotor nor the fenestron tail rotors were rotating,” the U.K. Air Ac-

cident Investigation Branch (AAIB) stated in a preliminary report released Dec. 9.

Investigators drained 95 liters (25 gal.) of fuel from the tanks, while fur-

ther examinations found that all components were present and there were no signs of “major mechani-cal disruption of either engine.”

Only a few clues will be gleaned from the aircraft’s onboard mission system as it was not ftted with a flight data recorder, nor was it required to be by the U.K. Civil Aviation Author-ity. Investigators said they were planning to make use of record fault codes in var-ious systems onboard the aircraft. Onboard systems that capture images and audio also will be reviewed.

The accident comes at an already challenging time for Eurocopter in the U.K. The manufacturer is attempting to overcome adverse public perception over its Super Puma family following a set of fve accidents in four years in the North Sea—two of which were fatal. While the most recent of those losses, the crash of a CHC AS332L2 on Aug. 23, seems to be the result of pilot error (the AAIB has not yet fnished its report), people in Scotland have been quick to make the link between Eurocopter- helicopter involvement in the North Sea and Glasgow tragedies. c

Workers remove the rear rotor of a police helicopter from the Glasgow, Scotland, crash site in the aftermath of the Nov. 29 fatal EC135 accident.

The sensors in the supply tanks of this aircraft did not work properly; it was determined that an amber “cau-tion” signal linked to the sensors was “not triggered.” However, the red “low fuel” alert still worked correctly because it op-erates on a completely decoupled system.

Eurocopter says fuel-system functionality tests subsequently performed by two other EC135 op-erators in Europe have revealed possible similar supply-tank fuel gauge er-rors on some aircraft. Of the 36 supply tank sensors tested in the U.K., one was found to have an issue.

“Following discovery, the faulty sensor was cleaned. When retested, the sensor was fully func-tional,” the company re-ported. LPR, which fies EC135s for air ambulance operations in Poland, also found an issue in one of their 23 aircraft.

On Dec. 20, Eurocopter revealed that checks on more than 100 fuel sensors from 50 aircraft have been completed; three were found to be defective. “The faulty sensors were cleaned. When retested, only one was still faulty while two of them were fully functional again.”

Bond has said that while all of its air-craft have now returned to operations, its EC135s will carry a minimum of 90 kg (198 lb.) of fuel at all times, which

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Built for the Cockpit.


Bradley Perrett Beijing

Slimmed DownNow launched, the Avic MA700

is leaner than previously planned

After fve years of design studies, Avic has significantly revised the design of its MA700 turbo-

prop airliner, which it has now launched into full-scale development with entry into service targeted at 2019.

Among the changes, Avic has added a shortened version with about 50 seats to the previous plan to follow the initial 78-seat version with a stretched variant accommodating “about 90.”

New details show the MA700’s cabin width has shrunk during pre-develop-ment, with the manufacturer retreat-ing from a plan for roomier seats than usual for such aircraft. Adoption of a narrower fuselage and shorter wing span than planned partly explain a re-duction in what already looked like an aggressive weight target.

Bids from engine makers were due

in June but the supplier still has not been chosen. It will be within a few months, says Dong, deputy chief de-signer of Avic’s First Aircraft Insti-tute, a design bureau. Proposed new engines from Pratt & Whitney Canada and Safran are likely candidates. Sup-pliers of other systems will be chosen in the frst half of 2014.

The status of the MA700 has been unclear for years, with ofcials some-times saying it had been launched. Avic’s press conference Dec. 19 con-frmed that only now has that happened. About fve years have been allocated to ready the aircraft for service; frst fight is scheduled for 2016. The development cost will be several billion yuan (6.1 yuan = $1), says Geng Ruguang, deputy gen-eral manager of Avic. The preliminary design review is scheduled for 2014.

In May, frst delivery was projected for 2018. Avic Aircraft, the large-air-plane unit of Avic that is responsible for the program, still expects to re-ceive airworthiness certifcation in that year. There are no launch orders, even though Avic says the program is being undertaken for proft.

The plan for a short version must mean the MA700 will replace the cur-rent Avic MA60 (and MA600 update), an Antonov An-24 derivative whose certifcation cannot be recognized by Western civil aviation agencies. Amid a general shift in demand toward larger regional airliners, there is not much re-quirement for small turboprops, how-ever. Moreover, a 50-seat MA700 would sufer the usual weight penalties of a shortened commercial aircraft.

Avic is aiming for Western endorse-ment of the MA700’s certifcation, as it is for most of its new aircraft. This will depend on Comac finalizing develop-ment of the ARJ21 regional jet, whose delayed certifcation, now due next year, is holding up FAA recognition of Chi-nese airworthiness assessment.

Apart from modernity, the MA700 will difer from its competitors in size: It will be larger than the ATR 72 and Bombardier Q400, yet smaller than the new 90-seater being considered by ATR owners Alenia Aermacchi and EADS. The type will ofer performance approaching the high level of the Q400 but, if Avic hits its targets, a weight per seat near the low level of the ATR 72. According to Avic, the MA700’s advan-tages will include economy in fuel con-sumption and maintenance, adaptability to operation from hot-and-high airfelds and those with unpaved runways and speed and, in the cabin, quietness, spa-cious overhead bins and comfort.

Despite a claim of spaciousness, it is evident the designers have pruned weight and drag by slimming the fuse-lage cross-section. Seat backs are now 44 cm (17.3 in.) wide, the same as in the ATR 72 and the Q400; last year Avic’s published design showed 46-cm seat backs. And aisle width in the standard arrangement has fallen to 43.5 cm from 46 cm—a little less generous than the ATR 72’s but roomier than the Q400’s.

The result is that fuselage width has evidently shrunk by 10.5 cm to about 2.9 meters (9.5 ft.). Standing room in the aisle has risen 5 cm, however. The greater cabin height, narrower width and retention of an underfloor bag-gage compartment (shown by an ofcial

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model) suggest Avic may have shifted from a circular cross-section to an egg-shaped one, like that adopted by design-ers of India’s proposed RTA turboprop.

The MA700 span has been cut dra-matically since last year’s fgures, by 1.7 meters to 27.5 meters, while length has risen more than 0.8 meters to 30.9 me-ters; the latter change is probably as-sociated with a rise in standard seating from 76. The new standard seating of 78 assumes an all-economy arrangement at 81-cm pitch. Dong Jianhong says the longer aircraft will have more than 90 seats but a further stretch beyond 100 seats is not contemplated. Anything longer than the frst stretch would pre-sumably have inadequate takeof rota-tion. Adding complete seat rows would presumably make the capacity 94 or 98.

Maximum cruise speed will be fairly high at 610 kph (380 mph), but that is at the low end of the range stated last year, 600-650 kph. Fast turboprop airliners are more popular with pas-sengers and more fexible in operation, but more speed demands more power, weight and cost. Industry ofcials have said that the MA700’s installed power will be determined by the need to climb fast enough from runways to minimize interference with jet operations; the maximum cruise speed is just a by-product of that, with the normal cruise speed intended to be 500 kph. The generously low-power loading should

also support the type’s intended suitability for operation from hot-and-high airfelds.

The power require-ment is not stated but Dong says it is less than 5,000 kw (6,700 hp) for each engine, which is only to be expected for the aircraft’s size. The 5,000-kw Avic Engine WJ-10 turboshaft, now under development, should eventually be a candidate, however, especially for high-pow-ered military deriva-tives, but Dong says it has not been offered. The Chinese air force is said to want 50 MA700s. If those are intended to be government trans-ports, then they could be operated by an airline instead, and Western

companies could supply their engines, avionics and other equipment.

The changes to the MA700 over the past year or so are clearly aimed at cutting weight, drag and therefore manufacturing and operating costs. In-dustry ofcials said in May that empty and gross weights had fallen by 1 met-ric ton (2,205 lb.), even though earlier targets were already well below the weights of the Q400, which seats 74 at 79-cm pitch. The MA700’s empty weight target of 14.5 tons compares with the 17.7 tons of the Q400, though

it is possible that Avic’s fgure excludes items usually counted in the operation-al empty mass.

If Avic achieves its goals, empty weight will be 186 kg per passenger seat, about the same as the operational emp-ty weight per passenger of the ATR 72, which has very low power, a maximum cruise speed of just 510 kph and a com-posite wing. Moreover, the ATR 72 has the weight advantages of a stretched version, whereas the MA700 in its initial ofering should be carrying the weight of design provisions for a longer fuselage.

MA700 range with 78 passengers will be 1,700 km (1,060 mi.), but Avic says the type is “positioned” for 800-km routes. It will use fy-by-wire fight controls. The aircraft will be designed for a life of 60,000 flight hours or 60,000 fights, equivalent to 20 years of operation, industry ofcials have said.

The MA700 will be made mainly of conventional aerospace aluminum, like its competitors, says Dong. It will not have a composite wing. Composite material will probably be less than 10% and the composite fber will be of T800 grade, which is now in production in China (AW&ST Dec. 9, p. 32).

When the MA700 was revealed as a proposal in 2008, it was supposed to go into service in 2014. Slow progress in propulsion studies have caused delays, an industry ofcial says. More recently, fnancing has slowed things down, says another. This is a commercial program for Avic. Unlike the Comac C919 pro-gram, it is not being funded by the cen-tral government, although Geng says local governments may contribute. c

AIR TRANSPORT


Adrian Schofeld Auckland

Going LongAsian LCCs stake long-haul claims

with big fleet moves and startup plans

The low-cost, long-haul airline business model has been slow to gather momentum in other parts

of the world, but it appears set to boom in Asia. Latest developments see Air-Asia X placing a major widebody order that would extend its reach to Europe, and two other low-cost carriers (LCC) revealing plans to launch a long-haul joint venture in Thailand.

The largest Asian LCCs have several hundred narrowbody aircraft on order, which will intensify competition in the short-haul market in coming years. So looking for new markets further afeld is a logical next step. Most of the region’s leading LCCs are thinking this way, and are either operating long-range wide-bodies or have them on order.

Malaysia-based AirAsia has gone

MA700 Design Evolution April 2012 Dec. 2013

Empty weight 15 5 metric tons 14 5 metric tons*

Max payload 8 6 metric tons

Fuel 5 5 metric tons

Max takeoff weight 27 5 metric tons 26 5 metric tons

Max cruise speed 600-650 kph 610 kph

Design cruise speed 500 kph*

Power Less than 5,000 kw x 2

Ceiling 7,620 meters

Ceiling, one engine out 5,400 meters

Takeoff distance 1,400 meters

Landing distance 1,200 meters

Range, normal pax 1,700 km

Range, max payload 1,100 meters

Span 29 2 meters 27 5 meters

Length 30 06 meters 30 9 meters

Height 8 meters

Track 4 1 meters 4 1 meters

Wheel base 11 2 meters

Standard pax 76 78

Cabin width 2 7 meters 2 618 meters

Seat back width 0 46 meters 0 44 meters

Aisle width 0 46 meters 0 435 meters

Aisle height 1 95 meters 2 meters

Composite content About 15% No more than 10%

Blanks indicate data unavailable.

Metric ton = 2,205 lb.; kph = 0.62 mph; km = 0.62 mi.; meter = 3.28 ft.; kw = 1.34 hp.

Source: Avic, except *industry of�cials in April 2013.


venture called NokScoot, which they say will operate widebody aircraft on international routes. Nok stresses that this move will allow it to boost its pres-ence overseas, while Scoot says that Bangkok is “a logical hub for Scoot to expand to.”

Nok will control a 51% stake, and Scoot will hold 49%. The initial invest-ment will be THB 2 billion ($61.2 mil-lion). The carriers say details about feet and network will be announced at a later date.

Scoot already operates Boeing 777-200ERs on medium and long-haul in-ternational routes from Singapore. It is due to begin receiving 20 Boeing 787 orders in late 2014 to replace its 777s, and it is possible that some of the 787 orders would be channeled to Nok-Scoot. However, the partners report-edly intend to operate 777s at frst. c

The order signals a new wave of growth for AirAsia X. Group CEO Tony Fernandes says the additional aircraft “further cater to our expan-sion plans in Malaysia,” as well as “other long-haul ventures planned across Asia.”

AirAsia X CEO Azran Osman-Rani has previously stated that the car-rier’s goal is to launch overseas joint ventures in countries where AirAsia already has established short-haul af-fliates, starting with Thailand and In-donesia. The Thailand AirAsia X joint venture is furthest advanced, and is expected to be operational in the frst quarter of 2014.

Meanwhile, Thai airline Nok Air and Singapore’s Scoot announced on Dec. 16 that they plan to launch a long-haul LCC to be based in Bangkok. Nok is partly owned by Thai Airways, and Scoot is a subsidiary of Singapore Airlines.

The carriers have signed a memoran-dum of understanding to set up a joint

further down this path than its rivals, however. It established AirAsia X in 2007 specifically to pursue long-haul opportunities, and it already operates a feet of 16 A330-300s. On Dec. 18 it an-nounced an order for 25 A330-300s for delivery from 2015, to be supplemented by another six A330s it will lease from the International Lease Finance Corpo-ration. The latest Airbus deal will boost the airline’s outstanding A330 orders to 40, and it is also scheduled to receive 10 A350-900s.

AirAsia X says the new order in-cludes the extended-range version of the A330-300, which provides it with “the ability to ofer non-stop service to destinations in Europe or one-stop service to the U.S.” AirAsia X previ-ously operated fights to London and Paris using A340-300s, but cut those routes in March 2012 because it could not make them viable with that aircraft type and Europe’s high taxes and fees.

Airbus frst unveiled extended-range options for its A330 family in November 2012; they will be available to operators in 2015. The upgrade certainly caught the eye of AirAsia X, as its latest order is Airbus’s largest ever for the A330.

AirAsia X has placed the largest-ever single order for Airbus A330s.

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Advancing, Executing

In the year just ended, the frst all-new narrowbody airliner in more than 25 years made its frst fight, an unmanned air-craft made the frst catapult launches and arrested landings on a carrier and a scramjet-powered vehicle made the longest air-breathing hypersonic fight yet. Bombardier’s CSeries, Northrop Grumman’s X-47B and Boeing’s X-51A were among the highlights of an eventful 2013.

Orders have driven the fortunes of Airbus and Boeing through 2013, with frm totals now exceeding 2,500 for the A320neo, approaching 1,700 for the 737 MAX and passing 1,000 for the 787, while the A350 is catching up. But 2014 will turn on execution as the A320neo enters fight testing, 787-8 production ramps up, the A350-900 and 787-9 enter service

and the 787-10, 777X and A350-1000 advance in development. Execution also will be critical for Bombardier’s CSeries and Comac’s C919 as they bid to compete.

As December drew to a close, Airbus had booked more than 750 orders for A320neo in 2013, and Boeing more than 560 orders for the 737 MAX—an intake that is not expected to be repeated in 2014-15. But the next two years will put to the test Bombardier’s belief that airlines will come back for a smaller 110-160-seat aircraft once they have secured the delivery slots needed to renew and expand their core 180-seat feets—if the CSeries performs on its promises.

Execution remains critical also for Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the most complex aircraft yet attempted

32 aviation week & space technology/December 30, 2013/January 6, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

On divergent paths, commercial and defense markets

face similar demands on program performance

After 110 years, aviation is not advancing as rapidly as it once did, at least on the

surface. But 2013 saw several signifcant developments in aerospace, and

2014-15 will see new airliners and fghters enter service, key development tests

of manned space transports and, potentially, suborbital passenger fights.


Aerospace & Defense 2014Intelligence for an Essential Industry

Graham Warwick Washington

Expanded Content Looking for more information

than we can ofer in print? Registered users can view video

reviews of commercial, defense and space market developments

in 2013, interactive versions of the Confict Map and 2014 MRO

Markets Map and more at AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014

Expanded specifcation tables are available to registered users at

AviationWeek.com/specs If you’re a subscriber but have not

registered, go to AviationWeek.com/awstregister

In 2014, Bombardier will step up fight testing of the CSeries narrowbody, and the U.S. Navy will conduct additional tests of the unmanned Northrop Grumman X-47B.

aviation week & space technology/December 30, 2013/January 6, 2014 33

in software, integration and programmatic terms. While the program still faces challenges, solid progress was made in 2013, although the schedule overruns and cost escalations have jolted industry into recognizing it needs better practices and tools for engineering complex systems, particularly after similar experiences with the F-22. New U.S. Air Force long-range bomber and Navy carrier-based unmanned aircraft programs will test the defense community’s willingness to exercise requirements and development discipline.

Momentum behind the shift from government to com-mercial space transportation also will be highly dependent on execution. Cargo resupply services to the International Space Station are now in place, but developing a capability to transport astronauts is a tougher task, and key abort-system and other tests—by NASA and the private sector—need to succeed in 2014 to stay on track. The year ahead also will be crucial for NASA’s development of a heavy-lift capability to conduct manned missions beyond low Earth orbit. c

Aerospace & Defense 2014 has been prepared in part with analysis and data from Forecast International Inc. in Newtown, Conn. For more comprehensive market information, visit forecastinternational.com Contact Ray Peterson, vice president for research and editorial services, at +1 (203) 426-0800 or [email protected]

Key Intel DEFENSE: Global hotspots and country-

by-country analyses of national priorities, budgets and

programs. See pages 38-47.

MILITARY AVIATION: Rivals upgrade their

combat aircraft as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter begins

to gain international traction. Special missions become

a key part of transport market. See pages 58-67.

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT: Europe fnally

may be getting its act together on UAS, but China and

civil developments are moving faster. See page 68.

AIR TRANSPORT: U.S. market consolidates, Eu-

rope’s recovery lags, as Persian Gulf carriers’ expansion

ups international competition. See pages 98-115.

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT: The A350

and CSeries are set to join the new generation of airlin-

ers in service, as 777X work ramps up. See page 91.

AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT: Automatic de-

pendent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) is poised to

become a pervasive technology. See page 116.

MRO: Steady demand is forecast for airliner

maintenance, with growth seen in engines, interiors and

capacity in Asia. See pages 125-141.

BUSINESS AIRCRAFT: A raft of new

products enters a divided market, still strong for larger

jets and weak for lighter jets. See page 119.

ROTORCRAFT: Light helicopter market

revives as manufacturers feld new medium machines

and eye faster rotorcraft. See pages 72-74.

ENGINES: Fuel-efcient engines continue to

drive commercial developments, and demand, as mili-

tary seeks savings. See page 75.

SPACEFLIGHT: SpaceX is poised to disrupt

launch market as demand continues for high-throughput

communications satellites. See pages 83-90.

TOP TECHNOLOGIES: Which com-

mercial, defense and space technologies are set to

make the headlines in 2014? See pages 78-82 and

121-124.

Top phoTo BomBardier; BoTTom phoTo NorThrop GrummaN

AviationWeek.com/awst


WATCHPOINTS FOR 2014

Boeing’s 787 program was thrown into chaos a year ago by lithium-ion battery fres. With the subsequent grounding and a string of reliability issues, the aircraft’s frst full year of service was a troubled one. As 787-8 deliveries ramp up, the stretched -9 enters service and the -10 continues in development, 2014 will be a pivotal year.

From commercial airline feet renewal through fghter procurement challenges to industry

consolidation in the face of budget pressures, 2014 looks

certain to be a pivotal year for aerospace and defense.

Here are 12 areas to keep an eye on.

787

spaCeX

spaCeX is Hoping For a Breakout

year. After the Dec. 3 commercial debut of its Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket, the company plans 13 launches in 2014, including Boeing’s frst two 702SP all-electric satellites. It’s an am-bitious manifest, considering SpaceX has never had more than three launches in a single year. Also keep an eye on Virgin Galactic, which aims to begin suborbital passenger fights with its SpaceShipTwo.

Joint strike FigHter

k e y m i l e s to n e s F o r lo C k H e e d

martin’s F-35 program will include car-rier trials of the U.S. Navy’s F-35C—delayed by an arrestor hook redesign—and looming deadlines for U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force initial operational capability. Progress is needed on the complex and essential au-tomated logistics and mission-planning sys-tem, which is behind schedule.

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GeNe bleviNs

boeiNG

i n a m a J o r s t e p towa r d C i v i l

unmanned airCraFt systems, the FAA is to release the small UAS rule for public comment early in 2014. And a lot of com-ments are expected, particularly about pri-vacy. The FAA hopes to publish the fnal rule by 2015, enabling civil and commercial use of UAS weighing up to 55 lb.

orion

nasa’s orion Capsule is scheduled to be sent 3,600 mi. into space in September on its frst experimental fight. The test is to validate structural modeling for reentry of the capsule, which is designed to carry astronauts beyond low Earth orbit. Eu-rope, meanwhile, plans the long-anticipated launch of its frst Galileo navigation satel-lites in 2014.

p&w/CFm

pratt & wHitney’s pw1000g and CFm’s

leap-1a engines will have the eyes of hun-dreds of operators and suppliers on them as they fy in 2014 on the Airbus A320neo and GE’s Boeing 747 testbed. The frst fight of the Pratt-powered A320neo is scheduled for October. Will the new engines live up to their game-changing promise?

Airbus

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WATCHPOINTS FOR 2014

u.s. Budget

u.s. aviation and aerospaCe Could

enJoy some Budget staBility, thanks to a bipartisan mini-budget bargain struck in December. But the federal budget is set to continue its downward slide, and com-petition for scarce funding will grow more intense. From the A-10 to the James Webb Space Telescope and NextGen air trafc modernization, 2014 could be a make-or-break year.

CHinese airCraFt

CHina’s airCraFt industry is good at announcing plans, but less so on execution. The long-delayed Comac ARJ21 regional jet is now scheduled to be certifed by the end of 2014, and assembly should begin on the frst Comac C919 narrowbody airliner. Watch also for progress on new helicopters from Avicopter and assembly of Cessna business jets in China.

FigHters

delays still dog maJor FigHter

procurements worldwide, and India has yet to fnalize a contract for 126 Dassault Rafales, but Brazil sprang a surprise at end of 2013 when it picked Saab’s JAS 39E Gripen over the Rafale and Boeing’s Super Hornet. The Gripen E still has to pass a Swiss referen-dum, while Denmark evaluates the Euro-fghter Typhoon, JAS 39E and Super Hornet as alternatives to the F-35.

narrowBodies

BomBardier’s Cseries made its First FligHt in septemBer, and 2014 will be a crucial year of testing that will determine when the new narrowbody jet enters ser-vice. The program also needs to win more orders to gain market traction, against ferce opposition from Airbus and Boeing. Bombardier additionally has to certify its all-new Learjet 85 in 2014.

m&a

merger and aCquisition aCtivity

ground to a halt in the defense sector in 2013 as U.S. budget uncertainty paralyzed buyers and sellers alike. But pent-up demand continues to grow as companies look to position themselves for a post-Afghanistan defense market. With cash on hand, credit available and more insight into Pentagon priorities, odds favor an uptick in 2014.

airsHips

will 2014 Be tHe year oF tHe air-

sHip? Despite the collapse of the U.S. Army’s Long Endurance Multi Intelli-gence Vehicle (LEMV) project, Northrop Grumman still plans to pursue a cargo-carrying airship project, and U.K.-based Hybrid Air Vehicles has acquired the LEMV prototype as a step toward test-ing a large-scale prototype.

New york stock exchANGe

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more than 200,000 flying hours achieved.ww

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United States

Stabilized

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Confict Engaged

High Tension



Defense & Security

N

EW

S

Colombia

Global Tension Territorial Dispute Air Operations Cyber Attack Narco-Terrorism

Central

Israel

Lebanon

Armenia

Philippines

Taiwan

South Korea

Iraq Iran

Yemen

Pakistan

India

Somalia

SudanPh

Ph

IND Indonesia

IND

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Chechnya

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Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see the full, interactive world confict guide, or go to AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014

N

EW

S

N

EW

S

AfghanistanSyria

Libya

UgandaCongo (DRC)

North Korea

Missile

Development

Insurgency Criminal Security Border Tension Regime Change Strategic RivalryWeapons of Mass

Destruction

Piracy

China

N

EW

S

N

EW

S

SouthSudan

Gaza

Central AfricanRepublic


Defense & security

to spread democracy or tolerance across the region or in-deed to quell the sources of terrorism. Syria, Libya and Egypt waver between rule by more or less secular strongmen and takeover by Islamic radicals. Overwatch by fghters, helicop-ters and surface-to-air missiles is now a routine feature of global sporting events as well as G20 meetings.

On the other side of the globe, however, tensions are re-minding many observers of the machinations that preceded previous industrial-age wars such as World War 1. China’s dec-laration of an air defense identifcation zone was remarkable not so much for its direct impact as for the fact that it took observers by surprise.

That is a strong indicator of regional tension and potential instability. While China’s armed forces are strong and growing rapidly, sym-bolized by China’s frst aircraft carrier, the ex-Russian Liaoning (see photo) its smaller regional rivals are also heavily armed and have much longer experi-ence in high-technology warfare. China has relatively recently emerged from decades of infantry-dominated “people’s war” and, until a few years ago, had vir-tually no experience of training and ex-ercising with other nations’ forces.

But it is exactly that kind of qualita-tive diference in the balance of forces that increases the risk of miscalcula-tion. This is particularly the case when one side controls its media and public ex-pression more tightly than the other. Chi-nese defense managers, commanders and leaders can read global media (and study their intelligence reports) and read about China’s growing strength and the need to develop doctrines, such as Air-Sea Battle, and improve technologies (ballistic missile defense, for instance) to counter their ex-pansion. This selective view tends to down-play the current strength of other regional actors.

On the other hand, Chinese citizens and political actors see a carefully stage-managed picture of their own strength, via deliberate Internet leaks and state-run media. The result is pressure on the military to show and, if necessary, use its strength to assert regional presence.

Consequently, there is high risk in 2014 of some kind of confrontation in the oceans around China. Modern sea war-fare is complex and fast-moving, and battle groups can fnd themselves within weapon range of one another quickly and unexpectedly. Commanders have to take decisions concern-

ing the safety of their own forces; links to shore may not be available and superior commanders on land, beyond the horizon, do not have access to a tactical picture.

This is part, too, of a shift back toward concerns about long-range warfare. Involvement in low- to medium-intensity internal operations, as the last decade has shown, is costly and highly uncertain, with uncertainty increasing over time.

However, the means of long-range warfare and systems to defend against it continue to become more sophisticated. A key case in 2014 will be how the international community deals with overtly nuclear North Korea and covertly nuclear Iran. So far, only one country (Sweden) has had a well advanced nuclear weapons program and given it up under pressure; other nuclear powers have retained that status.

A nuclear deal may not be the end of the process, however. Uzi Rubin, a player in the development of Israel’s missile de-fenses, noted in an interview in Washington in 2013 that the basics of missile guidance technology (navigation and attitude reference) are now built into millions of phones and tablets so that conventional-warhead ballistic missiles can now be aimed at military targets, civilian infrastructure and public buildings, and programmed to perform evasive maneuvers.

Guided missiles could take the place of strike aircraft more widely—in the same way that China’s anti-ship ballistic mis-sile system has emerged as the bogeyman of Pacifc confict,

but more so, since land targets are more easily located.

Notably, one of very few all-new weapons deployed in quantity by Russia since the early 1990s is the Iskander tac-tical missile. As currently deployed, the Iskander-E export model is detuned to stay within Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) range and warhead-size limits (as is its Chinese analog, the M-20 or DF-12), but the MTCR is com-ing under increasing pressure because it did not anticipate unmanned air sys-tems. Changes may be necessary, and those leave it open to reinterpretation

or collapse. Meanwhile, the U.S. is embroiled in a doc-

trinal debate that centers on the role of land forces and is defined by four factors. The defense budget is entering a downturn—unsurprisingly, since it has been running at record levels. Despite the fact that the U.S. military is often criticized for favoring technology over people, the budget itself is squeezed most of all by personnel costs. In the long term, the Pentagon needs to operate with fewer troops or more money, and the latter appears unobtainable. The public and

policymakers alike are weary of land war after the longest such engagement in U.S. history. However, land-war commanders have no interest in a major contraction of their forces.

The result is an intraservice argument starring advocates of “strategic landpower”—a vision of a near-permanent state of simmering global involvement—versus advocates of an arm’s-length strategy focused on traditional national interest and the preservation of the global commons. But the hard fact is that events in 2014 could easily render that discussion moot, if the East China Sea should boil over. c


New DomainsSecurity focus shifts east

A decade of boots-on-the-ground war-

fare in the Middle East does not, in late

December, appear to have done much

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The Big SqueezeIt’s worse than it looks

The near-panic statements about a “hollow force” and warnings of catastrophic cutbacks belie the fact that military spending remains, in infation-adjusted terms, at a level only seen once before since World War II, during the Reagan-era build-up. Including war funding (euphemistically termed “overseas contingency operations”), spending in the 2000s was far above Reagan-era levels.

In fact, military spending in fscal 2014 will remain at all-time high levels if $253 billion in personnel spending that is not included in the Pentagon budget is counted—actually more than half the military’s personnel costs are carried “of the books” in this way. The total includes Treasury payments that cover an early-2000s increase in some pensions, the Vet-erans Administration health care system and other benefts, such as disability pay and some tax exemptions.

Personnel costs increased sharply in the 2000s as Con-gress repeatedly set higher pay raises than the Pentagon requested. Health care costs also have risen dramatically due to the compound efects of greater costs in that sector and the expansion of Tricare—the Pentagon’s health manage-ment organization—to cover more retired service members for longer periods. Because Tricare premiums and benefts have been kept stable while commercial-market insurance has become more expensive, more retired military people have chosen it, further increasing its cost.

A remarkable feature of the personnel budget is that most of the benefts—including post-service Tricare eligibility and pensions, which are projected to cost $87 billion in 2014, or two-thirds more than basic pay—fow to the 17% of military personnel who enjoy retired status, having served 20 years or more. The majority of these are ofcers. Other veterans who have served less than 20 years enjoy far more meager benefts. However, the political reality is that the non-military public is not widely aware of this crucial distinction, so rolling back benefts is troublesome.

Likewise, it is politically difcult for the services to shed infrastructure such as operating bases or depots, which often are large and located near small and midsize cities, and hence are often the economic engines of those regions. Base realignment and closure (BRAC) has been underway since 1990 in fve rounds, closely overseen by Congress and hedged about with rules that require the Pentagon to invest in economic development projects and fund environmental clean-ups. Todd Harrison, budget analysis director at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), notes that the most recent BRAC round—in 2006-11—cost more up front than the previous four rounds put together. The result is that BRAC cannot generate short-term sav-ings.

Depots, and overhaul and maintenance in general, are gov-erned by legal and contractual restrictions. By U.S. law, 50% of Pentagon depot-level maintenance funds must be spent at government depots. Also, contractors fercely defend what they see as the legal principle that they own the intellectual property in systems they developed for the military. Both these measures sharply reduce the scope for competition in military sustainment.

Finally, investment in new systems, in the past years of fat budgets, has been dominated by two trends. There have been a large number of failed systems that were either canceled outright or have vastly exceeded their unit-cost targets, forcing the services to cut back on production: The Lockheed Martin F-22 and the DDG-1000 destroyer are two examples of the latter. The largest single defense program of all time, the Joint Strike Fighter, would have delivered 600 operational aircraft by now—170 this year alone—if it had stayed on schedule.

Moreover, many of the weapons that were developed and felded in quantity were tailor-made for the Iraq and Afghan wars—such as mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles—and unmanned air systems that cannot survive in the face of

Defense profiles

A last-minute budget agreement will relieve some pressure on the U.S. defense budget, but cannot resolve basic structural problems that have been growing since 2000. These are a result of war costs, short-sighted decisions by Congress, poor program management and the failure of all parties, over the decade, to take ac-tion that saves money in the long term.

The B-1B strategic bomber is threatened

with retirement under budget cuts, to avoid

more than $1 billion in upgrade costs.

U.S

. A

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or

ce

United states

Estimated 2014 Budget

$612.5 billion ($847.9 billion including non-Defense Department personnel costs)

4.4

1.4 million active, 850,000 reserve

Major operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, deployments in 90-plus countries

Percent of GDP

Personnel Under Arms

Deployments


advanced air defenses. They are of lim-ited use in diferent combat scenarios.

The result, Harrison points out, is that the defense budget downturn that is now beginning is diferent from the downturns after Korea, Vietnam and the end of the Cold War, when the accounts for retirement and person-nel were a smaller fraction of the total and the services were fush with new equipment.

The upshot is that production bud-gets and research and development programs are both under pressure. However, because previous R&D pro-grams have failed and many of the current programs have stretched into decades, the services have no modern systems to buy in many key mission areas (such as U.S. Air Force fghters and Navy destroyers). This has led to a situa-tion in which the ratio of procurement to R&D in the 2000s bumped along at a value between 1:1 and 1.5:1—that is, be-tween a third and a half of acquisition funding was R&D. This balance needs to revert to a more typical historical level (at which procurement is 2-3 times R&D) if the current forces are to be recapitalized, but there is no money to do that.

As a consequence, the services are looking at major cut-backs to forces and activities in order to protect moderniza-tion accounts.

In 2014, the Air Force most likely will continue with plans to dispose of entire feets of aircraft rather than salami-slic-ing the numbers of every type in its inventory. The latter is incremental at best and counterproductive at worst, because shrinking a force tends to increase its cost per unit. With the former strategy, the Air Force not only reduces numbers, but also eliminates logistics and training pipelines, dedicated infrastructure (such as training simulators) and future mod-ernization costs.

The last item is particularly important for one feet on the service’s chopping block—the 59 KC-10A Extender tankers. Retiring the KC-10s is counterintuitive, since they are just over half as old as the Boeing KC-135 force and carry more fuel. But the tankers have not been modernized since they were delivered. Between now and 2020, they will be increas-ingly restricted in oceanic airspace unless they are retroftted with new communication, navigation and air-trafc manage-ment avionics.

The same applies to the B-1B. A September 2013 Congres-sional Research Service report identifes $1.4 billion in mod-ernization projects for the bomber, more than $1 billion of that being in fscal 2014 and subsequent budgets—$28 million for each combat-capable aircraft. The slightly larger B-52 feet needs only 20% of that investment—so it is the B-1, not the air-craft that it was once intended to replace, which is vulnerable.

Another feet at risk—and the most controversial of the USAF’s planned cuts—is the A-10 close-air-support aircraft. Before the sequester hit, Air Force plans called for 230 of these rugged and heavily armed aircraft, mostly acquired in the 1970s, to remain in service through 2030. Service leaders now argue that the CAS mission has been performed efectively in 10 years of warfare by F-16s, F-15s, gunships and UAS, and by Navy, Marine and allied fghters, and that the specialized A-10 is not a critical need. However, a political movement to force

the Air Force to retain the aircraft is gathering momentum.

The Northrop Grumman Global Hawk Block 30 force also is being tar-geted. It is expensive, and does not match the veteran Lockheed Martin U-2 in its ability to carry (and provide power to) high-performance sensors. Its electro-optical payload has had a difficult development, and it is little more survivable than the much cheap-er General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper. The revelation of the Northrop Grumman RQ-180 stealth UAS points to an-other Air Force motive for killing the Block 30: It needs the money for the units that will operate the new aircraft.

During 2014, it will become clear whether the Air Force is going to have to cut even deeper to protect its priority programs. The next target will be its prized fghter force. Today, that force faces an increasing challenge because mechanically scanned radars build with 1980s-era technology risk being out-ranged by active, electronically scanned array (AESA) systems. The frst AESA-equipped Chinese fghter, the Chengdu J-10B, has just surfaced in what appears to be a production version— and can be jammed by widely available digital radio-frequency memory (DRFM) technology. The only AESA-equipped aircraft in the Air Force operational inventory are F-22s and some F-15s.

The Air Force has upgrade programs on the books for F-15Es, F-15C/Ds and F-16C/Ds, incorporating AESAs radars and other changes. The F-15E radar modernization program has already proceeded into its second low-rate initial-pro-duction batch and the sixth batch of AESA radars for the F-15C/D was ordered in June, at which time 46 radars had been delivered. However, the F-15s also need a new electronic warfare system—dubbed the Eagle Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System (Epawss)—and the Air Force is only in the early stages of funding this efort.

As for the F-16, the Air Force has been trying to assemble an international upgrade program called Combat Avionics Programmed Extension Suite (Capes) with costs shared be-tween the U.S. and international partners. The program is managed by Lockheed Martin, which has selected Northrop Grumman to provide a new AESA radar. It also includes a new mission computer and improved cockpit displays. But Capes has stalled due to budget cuts, while a rival upgrade—with BAE Systems as prime and a Raytheon radar—is mov-ing briskly towards a full-scale go-ahead for the South Ko-rean air force.

If Epawss and Capes are truncated or abandoned, the F-15 and F-16 feets face obsolescence rather than remaining in service in large numbers until 2030, as had been planned.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy’s aviation community is ap-proaching the point where the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet line starts to shut down, with some components going out of production early in 2014. However, the F-35C has not yet landed on an aircraft carrier and is not scheduled to do so until the summer, and the Navy has reduced its planned F-35B/C buy rate from 50 to 40 aircraft per year, saving about $1.2 billion annually. Its ability to keep decks full in the late 2020s will depend on extending the life of the Super Hornet.

The Navy’s next big decision concerns the shape of its Un-


Defense profiles

manned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (Uclass) program—specifcally, how stealthy an aircraft the service can aford to develop on an ambitious schedule. Gen-eral Atomics Aeronautical Systems has set the low bar with an enlarged development of its Avenger, while Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman have shown very stealthy designs based on RQ-170 and X-47B technology. The Navy is still working toward a source selection by the end of 2014.

Outside aviation, the Navy is continuing to reduce its am-bitions in terms of shipbuilding, in light of three bad experi-ences (the DDG-1000 debacle, major overruns in the Ford-class aircraft carrier and the expensive and controversial Littoral Combat Ship). The relatively successful Virginia-class submarine program is planned to continue—includ-ing a hull stretch accommodating up to 28 cruise missiles, with a number of design options under consideration—until the SSBN-X replacement for the Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine takes its place in the shipyards, with construction starting in 2021.

More progress will be made in 2014 on the Navy’s most im-

portant surface combatant program, the improved Flight III variant of the Burke-class destroyer. One of two Burkes planned for procurement in 2016, and all subsequent ships (at a rate of two per year) are to be Flight IIIs, with a new radar and more capability for missile defense. However, the design has involved difcult tradeofs involving cost, technol-ogy and the ability of the hull to accommodate more systems. Most recently, an X-band AESA tracking radar has been re-placed by a less costly and lighter version of the mechanically scanned SPQ-9B, which the Navy maintains will be efective against future missile threats.

As for land forces, the immediate questions are size and readiness. Todd Harrison’s CSBA research has punched a hole in the concept of the “golden ratio”—the idea that the services share equally in budgets, downturns and upturns. The Army (and the Marines) gained numbers in the 2000s and are now losing them at a rate that has their leaders con-cerned; hence the development of the concept of “strategic landpower,” which aims to justify permanent land forces on a similar scale to those built up for the Middle East wars. c


Delay on DelayFixing Canada’s procurement problems

Canada’s armed forces, facing a fa-

miliar combination of a declining budget

and aging feets, have a third problem: a

lack of public and political confdence in

the nation’s acquisition process after a

series of failures and embarrassments,

including a 28-year efort to replace

naval Sea King helicopters that has al-

ready seen one program canceled, and a

second one started that is now running

at least four years late. The acquisition

of four trouble-plagued ex-Royal Navy

submarines has been another

public problem.

The largest current program, the replace-ment of the air force’s Boeing F/A-18A/B Hor-net fighters, was removed from the depart-ment of national defense (DND) in 2012 and reassigned to a secretariat within the depart-ment of public works and government services, after it became clear that the DND had violated the spirit (at least) of procurement regulations in order to justify a sole-source Joint Strike Fighter buy.

The public works department has spent

2013 gathering information on the capabilities, cost and in-dustrial participation potential of three alternative fght-ers —Rafale, Typhoon and Super Hornet. Saab declined to respond on the grounds that Canada has not committed to any kind of formal competition. Neither has Canada is-sued a new statement of requirements—the last version, produced in 2010, was worded to eliminate any candidate other than JSF.

With federal elections due in 2015, Canada’s government has the option of trying to settle the issue quickly, with a 2014 competition, or pushing the decision beyond the elections.

Also on the desk of the public works department is the acquisition of a new fxed wing search and rescue (FWSAR) aircraft to replace CC-115 Bufalos and CC-130 Hercules. It was originally supposed to deliver aircraft in 2006, but a draft request for proposals was issued in August and a fnal RFP is expected in early 2014. The Alenia C-27J and Airbus CN235 are considered the leading candidates, with the more costly Lockheed C-130J a possible alternative.

Another massive program on the horizon is the Canadian Surface Combatant, a class of 15 frst-line, multi-role war-ships to replace the navy’s Iroquois-class destroyers and Halifax patrol frigates. The ships will be built in Canada, most likely to an existing design: France’s DCNS is ofering

the Fremm hull. Also in difculty is the army’s Close Combat

Vehicle requirement for a highly mobile, well-protected vehicle—either an 8 X 8-wheel or a tracked vehicle. The program was announced in 2009, but no selection has been made; some sources report that the army intends to aban-don it because of increasing costs.

The procurement problems have caused the government to consider sweeping reforms, with two options on the table. One is to expand the use of ad hoc secretariats, already used for the warship and fghter programs. The other, more far-reaching option is to develop a single defense procurement agency, akin to Sweden’s FMV. c

Canada

Estimated 2014 budget

$19 billion (U.S. $18 billion)

1.3

68,000 regular, 27,000 reserve

NATO Training Mission in

Afghanistan, Congo, Darfur, Mali

Percent of GDP


Deployments

Estimated 2014 budget

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Nation

Estimated budget

€192.5 billion ($265.4 billion) (2011, excluding Denmark)

1.55 (2011, excluding Denmark)

Bosnia-Herzegovina, Horn of Africa, Mali, Somalia

Percent of GDP

Deployments


Nicholas Fiorenza Brussels

Making DoEuropean spending continues to slip

EU defense spending has been steadily declining since 2006, with the 1.55% of GDP and 3.17% of total govern-ment expenditure it represents being the lowest levels since that year.

Five years of reductions in both uniformed and civilian force numbers have not reduced the budget share consumed by personnel costs. Those accounted for 51.1% of total EU defense spending in 2011, around the same level as it has been since 2009, but spending on operations and maintenance rose by 3.6% to 23.5% of the total. At the same time, defense spending per soldier in-creased by almost 4% to €124,000, while defense investment per soldier fell by nearly 10% to €24,000 in 2011.

These negative trends are likely to continue as EU members have cut their defense budgets even further since 2011. The only major EU member still spend-ing over 2% of GDP on defense is the U.K., but it is also reducing budgets.

The EDA does see some bright spots, such as progress in reaching three

out of four voluntary benchmarks for defense investment it set in 2007. Re-search and technology (R&T) spending stopped its slide since 2006, rising from a low point of 1.07% in 2010 to 1.12% in 2012, still well below the 2% agreed in 2007. The share of European collabora-tive R&T expenditure in total defense R&T spending also rose, to 13.2%, albeit still below the 20% benchmark.

As a share of total equipment pro-curement, European collaborative pro-curement increased by 4% to 25.2%, the highest level since 2006, compared to the 35% benchmark. But defense in-vestment— spending on equipment procurement and research and devel-opment—fell to 19.2% in 2011, below the 2006 level, after being above the 20% benchmark in 2007-2010.

Recent military operations over Lib-ya and in Mali have once again shown gaps in EU capabilities such as strate-gic airlift, air-to-air refuelling (AAR), and intelligence and surveillance. The Airbus Military A400M, the frst pro-

duction version of which was delivered to the French air force in August, will go a long way toward flling the gap in strategic airlift. If it had been available for the French-led Operation Serval in Mali, the A400M would have been able to airlift all the equipment actually deployed, including material moved by roll-on, roll-off ships and leased An-tonov An-124 and An-225 transports, ac-cording to Damien Allard, the A400M’s market development manager.

To fll the AAR gap, the EDA is pur-suing various possible solutions. Eforts to reduce fragmentation of Europe’s military tanker fleet have had some success, with the EDA, Italy and the Movement Coordination Center Eu-rope jointly preparing the frst collec-tive European AAR clearance trial with an Italian KC-767A. France and Sweden participated with Mirage 2000, Rafale and Gripen fghters at Italy’s Decimo-mannu air base on Sept. 5-12, 2013. Fur-ther clearance campaigns, with other types of aircraft being refueled, are planned. Another solution proposed by the EDA is acquisition of A400M AAR kits, which France is already doing.

The most ambitious possible solu-tion is the joint acquisition of multi-role tanker transports, with a 10-nation ini-tiative led by the Netherlands aiming at an initial operational capability by 2020.

The EDA is seeking to fill other gaps by developing capabilities with both military and civil applications, proposing projects including remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) systems, satellite communications (Satcom) and cyber defense. The EDA sees an urgent re-quirement for a medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) UAS. For Satcom, the objective is to develop a future dual civil-military capability by 2025, when the current fve separate national pro-grams in the EU are expected to end. c

DefeNse Profiles

Defense spending in Europe has taken a marked downward turn, according to fgures released by the European Defense Agency (EDA) in September 2013, with investments being hit particularly hard. In 2011, total defense expenditures by EU member states—excluding Denmark, which has opted out of the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy, and Croatia, which became a member in mid-2013—fell by €1 billion to €192.5 billion ($265 billion), a drop of over 2%.

“Smart defense” could mean that the EU moves

into shared operations, such as NATO’s Strategic Airlift

Capability force of C-17s.

NATO

United Kingdom

Estimated 2014-15 budget

£32.6 billion ($53.6 billion)

2.5

156,690

Afghanistan, Ascension Island, Balkans, Brunei (training), Canada (training), Caribbean, Cyprus, Falkland Islands, Germany, Gibraltar, Kenya (training), Philippines (humanitarian support), United Arab Emirates, U.S. (training)

Percent of GDP

Personnel Under Arms as of October 2013

Deployments

AviationWeek.com/awst� �AviAtion�Week�&�SpAce�technology/December�30,�2013/JAnuAry�6,�2014 47

Tony Osborne London

Decision TimeU.K. likely to be more focused on Afghan drawdown

than extending its capabilities in 2014

Those operations have reshaped the U.K. armed forces. The British Army’s counter-insurgency strategy, codenamed Operation Entirety, has molded training, equipment and doc-trine to prepare troops for the theater.

But now commanders face the chal-lenge of preparing forces for readiness for contingency operations at a time when the defense budget is shrinking, as the U.K. Defense Ministry puts in-creasing emphasis on reservists as part of the Future Force 2020 program.

Planning and decision-making are likely to dominate proceedings during 2014. The Afghan theater withdrawal will increase in tempo, and will likely put a major strain on logistics and air transport. But few real decisions on procurement and new capabilities will likely be made in the coming 12 months. Instead, senior officers will wait—probably with some trepida-tion—for the next Strategic Defense and Security Review in 2015.

Perhaps one of the only exceptions to this will be the U.K.’s long-awaited frst major purchase of the Lockheed Mar-tin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. With four aircraft already ordered for the opera-tional training and evaluation program, the Main Gate 4 decision, expected for several months, appears to have been pushed into 2014. This will frm up plans for the frst squadron of British F-35s, and will be major step toward rebuild-ing the U.K.’s carrier strike capability—one of the highest-priority programs for the U.K. Defense Ministry.

In late October, the contract for the U.K.’s two new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers was renegotiated to get better terms for taxpayers. Ofcials said that under the original deal, “90% of every pound of cost overruns were

paid by the taxpayer, and only 10% by the contractor.” As a result, the cost of the carriers has almost doubled—from £3.65 billion ($6 billion) to £6.2 billion—since the contract with the Aircraft Carrier Alliance (ACA), the consortium building the vessels, was signed back in 2006. But now the price escalation is being shared equally between the De-fense Ministry and ACA.

The carrier program is making vis-ible progress, the first ship—HMS Queen Elizabeth—should get water under her keel during the summer, before work begins on the second ship, HMS Prince of Wales.

The JSF program is part of a growing relationship with the U.S., recently ex-tended to airborne intelligence-gather-ing with the Royal Air Force, now part of the RC-135 Rivet Joint program, with the November arrival in the U.K. of the frst of three aircraft. The Lancaster House relationship with France is likely to in-tensify, as more interests align. A major sticking point, the development of Fu-ture Anti-Ship Guided Weapon Heavy, known as the ANL in France, has been given the green light in Paris, and there are signs pointing to greater cooperation in the deployment of UAVs, with the po-tential for partnerships for operating the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper.

However, development of a Europe-an-grown medium-altitude long endur-ance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle is still some way of, with joint negotia-tions shelved. Even so, closer coopera-tion with Europe is likely to be in the cards, with the U.K. playing a greater role within the European Defense Agency and its ambitions for pooling and sharing assets and capabilities.

Hopes to radically overhaul defense procurement by reforming the minis-try’s Defense Equipment & Support (DE&S) procurement agency into a gov-ernment-owned, contractor-operated (GoCo) model in a bid to fnd efciencies have run into trouble. Two of the three consortia bidding to run the operation pulled out, leaving the project at a dead end. The GoCo bid was formally aban-doned on Dec. 10; ministers announced they will push ahead with the alternate DE&S+ option, with the organization becoming an “arm’s-length” ofshoot of the Defense Ministry from April 2014. c

By this time next year, the last British combat troops should be leaving Afghanistan, ending more than a decade of combat operations in that theater.

The U.K. has renegotiated the contract for two new aircraft

carriers, with resulting cost growth.

AircrAft cArrier AlliAnce


Amy Svitak Paris

Status QuoDespite boost in ops tempo,

French defense budget remains fat

The nation’s new military program law—a €190 billion ($256 billion) bud-get for the 2014-19 period approved by French lawmakers Dec. 10—will see the country fund defense at roughly €31.4 billion per year until 2016, after which annual spending is to increase slightly for the 2017-19 period. Of the total €190 billion earmarked for defense, roughly €6.1 billion will be raised through the one-time sale of state assets, including real estate and radio-frequency spec-trum.

The defense ministry’s f lat spending plan comes despite ongoing opera-t i o n s a ga i n s t Islamist insur-gents in Mali and, more recently, support for U.N. peackeeping op-erations in the Central African Republic.

Key aerospace platforms that will see reduced or delayed orders as a re-sult of fat spending include Dassault Aviation’s Rafale combat aircraft, Eurocopter’s Tiger and NH90 heli-copters, and Airbus’s A400M tactical airlifter and Multirole Tanker Trans-port (MRTT). So far, French defense officials say they remain committed to a decade-old plan to buy 50 A400M transports, despite the nation’s fag-ging economy and stagnant budget en-vironment. In mid-November, however, ofcials announced a plan to trim €600 million from the national defense bud-get in 2013 to help cover €3 billion in unforeseen government expenditures, including nearly €578 million associ-ated with ongoing operations in Mali.

Although the French air force took

delivery of its frst two A400Ms in the fall of 2013, Airbus says the govern-ment has asked it to push the planned arrival of a third into early 2014. But the company is already anticipating a revised A400M order calendar from the French, which will see deliveries drop 57% through 2017. The move is ex-pected to necessitate modifcations to the aircraft production line and trigger contract renegotiations with procure-ment authority Occar, as well as the

seven European nations that bought into the €26 billion program.

In the meantime, while France’s 50-aircraft target remains, the govern-ment is committing funding to just 15 A400Ms through 2017. At that point, Airbus can expect “several years with-out deliveries,” says Gen. Denis Mer-cier, French air force chief of staf. A combined budget of €3.9 billion is to be spent over the next six years for both aerial transport and refueling aircraft, including the A400M. In addition to the two airlifters delivered in 2013, the revised schedule will see the air force take delivery of four in 2014 and 2015, three in 2016 and two in 2017—20 fewer aircraft than planned in the pre-vious program law.

Of the other large programs afected

in the new budget, Rafale deliveries will be nearly halved over the program law period. Eurocopter will sell fewer Ti-ger attack helicopters and decelerate production of NH90 troop transports through the end of the decade.

France will spend €3.7 billion on the two Eurocopter programs through 2019, a fgure that incorporates an in-dustrial commitment signed in May that slows production of a second tranche of 34 NH90 orders. Spread-ing out deliveries, which will total 38 in 2019 and 68 by 2024, “delays the im-provement of our feet of maneuvering

helicopters,” says Gen. Bertrand Ract-Madoux, French army chief of staff. “That will force the ground army to keep its Pumas, which are approach-ing the limits of their obsolescence, be-yond 2025, at which point they will be almost a half-century old, as well as the Cougars and Caracals beyond 2030.”

Paris plans to reduce its buy of 80 Tigers to just 60 during the program law period, though Eurocopter will be partially compensated with more conversions of the helicopters to the new attack configuration. While the reduction amounts to a 25% decrease in orders, EADS (now known as Air-bus) says the value of the reduction to the company is closer to 10%, a cut the manufacturer is positioned to absorb.

The planned buy of MRTT aerial refuelers is also being reduced, to 12 from 14, with deliveries of just two of the modified A330s funded through 2019. c

Defense Profiles

Under growing pressure to tighten budgets, France is slowing deliveries of major military equipment and stretching out development of new platforms over the next six years.

france

Estimated 2014-15 budget

£31.4 billion ($43 billion)

2.3

228,656

Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti (anti-piracy), Lebanon, Mali

Percent of GDP

Personnel Under Arms as of October 2013

Deployments

Deliveries of Dassault Aviation’s Rafale combat aircraft will be nearly halved under France’s revised defense budget.

Dassault aviation

Russia

Estimated 2014 Budget

2.489 trillion rubles ($76.6 billion)

3.4

766,055

Percent of GDP

Personnel Under Arms as of December 2012


Maxim Pyadushkin Moscow

Feed the BearRussia sustains double-digit growth

Defense expenditures will grow by 18.4%, up to 2.489 trillion rubles ($76.6 billion) next year and by a further 21.6% (up to 3.027 trillion rubles) and 11.6% (up to 3.378 trillion rubles) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Defense spending is likewise growing as a share of the bud-get and of the gross domestic product (GDP). The defense portion of the federal budget will steadily increase from 15.6% in 2013 to 17.8% in 2014, 19.7% in 2015 and 20.6% in 2016. As a share of GDP, defense will amount to 3.4% in 2014 and 3.8% and 3.9% in the two sub-sequent years—a signifcant jump from 3.2% in 2013.

As it grows, Russia’s de-fense budget is becoming less transparent. The defense com-mittee of the State Duma notes that less than half of the 2014 defense bud-get—just 1.012 trillion rubles—remains public, and this proportion will shrink further. The committee reported that “the allocated budget spending gen-erally makes it possible to reach the major strategic goals of the develop-ment of the armed forces of the Rus-sian Federation,” but emphasized that the available budget structure does not provide enough information to proper-ly analyze the expenditures, including those on new weapons and equipment.

Nevertheless, Russia’s armed forces will continue their transformation—which started a few years ago—to a smaller, but more efective and combat-ready structure. The size of the armed forces is ofcially defned as one million, but is actually smaller. The real end-strength of the services on Jan. 1, 2013, was 766,055, including 10,000 civilian

personnel, according to the recent re-port of Russia’s Audit Chamber. The defense ministry plans to reach a 95-100% stafng level by the end of 2014.

Government policy still states that Russia’s vast territory rules out a switch to a fully professional army, as recently confrmed by defense minister

Sergey Shoygu. However, the number of paid volunteers will be increased to 425,000 by 2017, from 205,000 today. Volunteers will completely replace conscripts in combat operations by 2020, according to the minister.

Force restructuring is being accom-panied by massive rearmament, under the 10-year, 19-trillion-ruble defense procurement program adopted in 2010. This program includes new weapons for the interior ministry and other paramil-itary organizations, as well as the main armed forces. It continues unafected by the economic uncertainty that forced the government to cut some civil expen-ditures—a 5% reduction was discussed, but did not occur. Rather, some of the expenditures under the program have been postponed to 2017-20.

This postponement is not only a temporary budget fx but is also a re-spite for a defense industry that is un-expectedly overloaded with domestic

orders. After scraping by on export-led business for two decades, Russian defense manufacturers are working hard to meet surging demand from their government. Some products that were designed for export—from Tal-war-class frigates to Sukhoi Su-30MKI fghters—have been adapted and inte-grated into the Russian military. But executing Russian military contracts has meant rapid modernization and expansion of production facilities as well as the rebuilding of design and engineering capabilities that had de-teriorated in the lean years.

Almost a quarter of the 2010-20 de-fense procurement program budget—

about 4.5 trillion rubles—will be spent on the air force. About 85% of this is for new aircraft and weapons, with the goal of a feet comprising 70% modern equipment by 2020. This includes the delivery of 600 fxed-wing aircraft and 1,000 helicopters. Under the program, the military has placed orders for 246 fxed-wing aircraft in addition to 130 air-craft ordered in the late 2000s.

The fxed-wing backlog is dominated by Sukhoi Su-34 fghter-bombers and Su-30M2/SM (domestic versions of the Su-30MKI) and Su-35 multi-role fght-ers. Sukhoi’s rival, MiG, has had to set-tle for a single order, for 24 MiG-29K ship-based fghters from the Russian navy. The variety of the types being or-dered shows that these purchases are the result of lobbying eforts from local manufacturers now merged under the United Aircraft Corp. (notably, Irkut and KnAAPO, which make different versions of the Sukhoi series).

Sukhoi’s leadership of the T-50 PAK FA program will keep the company in pole position. The air force is expected

Russia’s government does not plan to cut its military expenditures, even in the face of economic stagnation. The draft federal budgets for 2014 and for 2015-16, approved in the frst reading by the State Duma at the end of October, continue to call for double-digit increases in spending on national defense despite the overall budget defcit planned for these years.

Zapad-13 exercises in western Rus-sia included Project 1232.2 Zubr hovercraft. Some of these vehicles, the largest of their type in the world, have been sold to China.

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Nicholas Fiorenza Brussels

Afghan EffectWithdrawal contributes to

German budget savings

German spending on international deployments also will fall, with the end of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan at the end of 2014. As German forces return, the trend toward rising costs, especially for maintenance of materiel, will reverse.

The drawdown accelerated in the last months of 2013, with daily flights of leased Antonov An-124 transports carrying German equipment home. The Bundeswehr plans to withdraw some 1,200 vehicles and 4,800 containers from Afghanistan. Even battle-damaged vehicles are being returned to Germany and prepared for future deployments, along with the rest of the repatriated kit.

The last German infantry rotations to Afghanistan, starting in mid-2013, were equipped with the Infanterist der Zukunft-Erweitertes System (Future Soldier-Expanded System, IdZ-ES), de-liveries of which began in March 2013. The withdrawal was supported by Ti-ger combat helicopters and NH90 for-ward medical evacuation helicopters.

T h e t ra n s fo r m a t i o n o f t h e Bundeswehr is not expected to be com-plete before 2017, but its new structure has emerged. The army will have two mechanized divisions with six deploy-

able, sustainable and rotatable brigades (three per division), plus the Division Schnelle Krafte rapid deployment forc-es. The latter combines the parachute brigade, special forces, combat and transport helicopter regiments.

The Luftwaffe will have five tacti-

cal squadrons, of which three will be equipped with Eurofghter Typhoons and two with Tornados, plus transport, helicopter and air-defense squadrons. The navy will have two flotillas, one with two frigate squadrons and the oth-er with minehunter, corvette and sub-marine squadrons, newly created naval special forces and a marine battalion for boarding and vessel protection.

New equipment for the transformed Bundeswehr includes the frst produc-tion versions of the KMW-Rheinmetall Puma armored infantry fighting ve-hicle, scheduled to be delivered to the Army in 2014, with the frst Airbus Mil-itary A400M transport to be delivered to the Luftwaffe in November 2014. Finding a replacement for the canceled Euro Hawk high-altitude long-endur-ance unmanned aerial system will be complicated by negotiations to form a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats, who won the September elections, and the Social Democrats, who have placed legal and humanitar-ian conditions on the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. c

defense pRofiles

The German government’s draft defense budget for 2014 is around €32.8 billion ($45 billion), a €400 million decrease compared to 2013. The budget will be reduced to around €32.1 billion by 2016 as the Bundeswehr—Germany’s armed forces—reduces personnel in line with its transformation. End-strength has already been cut to near its planned maximum of 185,000.

to start T-50 joint evaluation trials by the end of 2013, and series production is to start in 2016. The military reportedly plans to purchase 74 new fghters (in-cluding prototypes and pre-production aircraft) through 2020. United Aircraft Corp. will invest 25 billion rubles (about $780 million) in the creation of a T-50 assembly line at Sukhoi’s facility on Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

The navy’s major procurement efort

is the Borei-class nuclear-powered sub-marine, armed with R-30 Bulava inter-continental ballistic missiles (AW&ST Nov. 11/18, p. 48). The first sub of the class—Yury Dolgorukiy—entered ser-vice at the very end of 2012. Delivery of the second one—Alexander Nevsky—is expected this year. The navy also ex-pects new Yasen-class nuclear attack submarines, Kilo-class diesel-electric subs, new frigates and corvettes.

Air defenses are being reinforced with deliveries of the S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile system, with its associated 55Zh6ME radar com-plex, including VHF radar to counter stealth threats (AW&ST Sept. 2, p. 28), and Pantsir-S1 short-range gun-missile systems to protect the S-400s them-selves. Ground forces will receive new tanks, armored vehicles and artillery systems. c

Germany

Estimated Budget

€32.8 billion ($45 billion)

1.2

186,459

Afghanistan, Congo, Horn of Africa, Kosovo, Lebanon, Mali, Senegal, South Sudan, Sudan, Turkey, Uzbekistan

Percent of GDP


The Puma infantry fghting vehicle should enter service with the Bundeswehr in 2014.

KM

W

After the 2011 Operation Unifi ed Protector in Libya, for ex-ample, Italian military leaders noted the high cost of mount-ing long patrols at a considerable distance using supersonic fi ghters. This year, the Italian air force will be pursuing at least two new programs unveiled in 2013 and aimed at reduc-ing the cost of persistent operations.

While European multinational attempts to develop a medi-um-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) unmanned air system have been bogged down for years, Italy’s Finmeccanica qui-etly worked with Piaggio Aero to develop a UAS based on the P.180 Avanti business aircraft.

Designated the P.1HH HammerHead, it was supported in secret by Italy’s defense ministry, through a mix of fi nancing, personnel and access to facilities, until it was announced at the Paris air show in June, along with plans to acquire at least ten systems. The Avanti’s unique confi guration provides the P.1HH with an unusual combination of high transit speed (com-pared with other MALE UAVs), high altitude and the ability to loiter at low speed. Finmeccanica’s Selex-ES division—which produces the Falco series, the largest and most capable all-Eu-ropean UAS—contributed automated fl ight control, mission management, communications and sensors. This facilitated rapid progress and led to a fi rst fl ight in November.

A production-standard aircraft is expected to fl y this year. It will be fi tted with a complete sensor suite and defi nitive airframe modifi cations, including an extended wing, ventral sensor bay (used for the Selex Seaspray 7300E radar in the basic confi guration) and fuselage fuel tank. Italy is looking for an initial operational capability in 2016-17.

Another new program start is the MC-27J gunship—mak-ing Italy the third nation, after the U.S. and Jordan, to launch development of one of these very specialized aircraft. Six of the air arm’s 12 Alenia C-27Js will be converted into MC-27Js by Finmeccanica divisions Alenia-Aermacchi and Selex-ES, with armament systems provided by ATK Defense. The aircraft are expected to be assigned to support Italian Special Forces units.

Three of the aircraft will undergo the full conversion pro-gram, while the other three will be confi gured to take the sys-tem when required. The deal is expected to include develop-ment, evaluation, certifi cation and logistic support. A single prototype, separate from the MC-27J demonstrator, will be used to test the systems. The mission control system and ar-mament are palletized and battery-powered, independent of the aircraft’s electrical systems. Future enhancements could include the integration of small guided weapons.

Turkey, meanwhile, continues to cooperate globally with many dif erent partners—raising some eyebrows last year, to say the least, by announcing the selection of the Chinese HQ-9 surface-to-air missile, equivalent to the Russian S-300, in preference to U.S., European or Russian products. In response to criticism, Turkey said that only China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp. was willing to meet its requirements for industrial participation and technology transfer, and was also of ering the lowest price, estimated at $4 billion.

The U.S. Congress is trying to stall the deal by withholding any funds to integrate the HQ-9 into U.S. air defense or com-mand and control systems, but has to tread carefully because Turkey is one of the few Joint Strike Fighter partner nations that has not cut or delayed its orders.

Turkey is also an important customer for other U.S. sectors. The Sikorsky Black Hawk helicopter was selected in 2011 as the preferred bidder for the Turkish Utility Helicopter Pro-gram (TUHP), against competition from AgustaWestland. The program calls for 109 helicopters to be built in Turkey, using new avionics developed by Aselsan; negotiations over technol-ogy transfer and intellectual property rights are still underway.

Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) is exploiting hard-won experience and low engineering costs to pursue development of the Predator-sized Anka UAS for the country’s air force. The defense ministry ordered ten more Block B Anka systems in October, with greater performance, satellite-based beyond-line-of-sight communications and control and a high-defi nition camera. However, like the U.S., Turkey is looking for a new engine now that China’s Avic International has acquired Ger-man engine manufacturer Thielert. The defense ministry has also ordered the fi rst all-Turkish manned military aircraft in 80 years, in the form of an initial batch of Hurkus trainers.

Sweden has been Europe’s go-it-alone pacesetter for de-cades. While Saabhas had success in launching the JAS 39E Gripen, with orders from Brazil and Switzerland, other seg-ments are working harder in the face of ongoing budget cuts.

Notably, development of the very advanced Kockums A26 submarine has been delayed, with the fi rst two vessels not due to enter service until 2020 and 2021, according to Swedish media reports; design had started under an earlier contract, but the construction contract has been delayed. Other Swedish reports have pointed to national frustration over the fact that parent company Thyssen-Krupp Marine Systems’ German submarine yard HDW, rather than Kockums, was selected in November to build two new submarines for Singapore—which until now has operated refurbished submarines from Sweden. This will tend to raise the cost of the A26. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 30, 2013/JANUARY 6, 2014 51


Innovation On The CheapEuropean nations explore

new approaches

Across Europe, nations are taking innovative approaches to foster their home defense industries despite limited budgets, without relying on complex international programs.

Evolution of TAI’s Anka unmanned air system will continue with an improved Block B variant.

TA

I

Still, fghter programs are the most valuable and hotly con-tested deals. A dramatic turn of events in late December saw the Eurofghter Typhoon totally rejected by the United Arab Emirates, for unstated reasons. France’s defense minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, was quoted as saying on Dec. 18—be-fore the BAE announcement was public—that there would be “results soon” concerning both a contract for Rafale in India and sales in the Gulf. However, there were no more concrete indications of a Rafale sale to the UAE.

Eurofghter can still hold out some hope in nearby Qatar, where the government raised the stakes and increased the planned size of its future fghter buy to as many as 72 aircraft,

compared with its current feet of 12 Mirage 2000s. Qatari evaluation teams are understood to have fown the

Typhoon, Rafale and Super Hornet along with other com-petitors, but few details of the program have been released. It could have a major impact on the fghter scene because a Boeing deal would rescue the F/A-18E/F line—absent further orders, the line will start to shut down in March. Kuwait also has a requirement for new fghters to replace its legacy F/A-18C/D Hornets, but a decision may not come before 2015.

Qatar is due to decide the outcome of a large helicopter order, either from the U.S., for both the AH-64E Apaches and UH-60 Black Hawks, or from Europe with the Eurocopter EC665 Tiger and the NH Industries NH90.

With the planned closure of the Boeing C-17 Globemaster line in Long Beach, Calif., it is expected that some Middle East nations who have not yet ofcially ordered the type may well jump in. Kuwait has ordered two aircraft, the frst of which is expected of the line shortly. Saudi Arabia is said to be in-terested in the C-17, particularly as it is now in the process of ordering its frst Lockheed C-130Js; the gas-rich North Afri-can state of Algeria is known to have evaluated the aircraft

DEFENSE PROFILES


Tony Osborne London and Bill Sweetman Washington

Not Just FightersMissile defense and ISR

preoccupy Middle East forces

Middle East defense needs are diver-sifying. Nations are going beyond new combat aircraft and weapons, seeking intelligence, surveillance and reconnais-sance (ISR) and other assets, as well as increased participation in industrial and technical matters.

With a generous $3.1 billion in U.S. military assistance, of which more than $800 million is available for domestic pro-curement in Israel, the Jewish state is obliged to buy much of its military hardware in the U.S., leaving only a small por-tion of its defense spending for domestic military procure-ment. That fraction is focused

on various strategic systems, as well as programs that have the highest priority for national defense.

The two largest portions of the defense budget are not related to military modernization. About $5.3 billion goes to salaries, pensions, rehabilitation and compensation for families of fallen service members. Spending on operations—primarily border protection and operations of the regular forces—consumes most of the remaining assets. This leaves only a fraction of the total for modernization based on in-novations evolved from Israel’s investments in indigenous research and development, amounting to well over $1 billion.

Nevertheless, Israel still maintains one of the strongest, most efective military forces in the region. Reshaping this military power to respond to evolving challenges, from asym-metric warfare to long-range threats, the country has under-gone a major reform of its airpower by establishing a multi-

David Eshel Tel Aviv

Long ArmsDeterrence and defense

crimp ground forces

Israel’s defense budget of approxi-mately $15 billion puts the nation at 16th place in defense expenditure, after South Korea, Australia, Canada and Turkey, but ahead of the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, Spain and Paki-stan. In terms of its estimated share of GDP, Israel’s defense budget dropped from a double-digit level in the 1990s down to about 6% since 2010. Yet these statistics do not tell the full story.

Israel

Estimated Budget

$15 billion (based on offcial fgures)

6.9

176,500 active, 445,000 reserve

Percent of GDP


Boeing’s Maritime Surveillance Aircraft has Middle Eastern customers among its prime targets.

layered air and missile defense system and modernizing its manned and unmanned air assets. The goal is to provide fast response to asymmetric challenges and threats that may emerge thousands of kilometers from Israel’s borders.

The air and missile defense command and its active de-fense wing continues to be upgraded since it received the frst Iron Dome batteries in 2011, together with continuous improvement of the Arrow II Block 4 ballistic missile de-fense system. More Iron Dome batteries are being delivered through 2014 and will continue in 2015. Two new systems are on the way: the David’s Sling intermediate-level air and missile defense system, and Arrow 3, an exo-atmospheric up-per tier above Arrow 2. Both are in advanced testing, funded jointly by Israel and the U.S., with initial operational capabil-ity expected in 2015 for David’s Sling and 2016 for Arrow 3.

Israel’s frst stealth fghter-strike aircraft, the Lockheed Martin F-35A, is expected to enter service in 2017. The Is-raeli Air Force is expected to feld another revolutionary plat-form—the Bell-Boeing V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft—six are slated to arrive in 2015.

The navy is also undergoing an expensive evolution focused on sub-surface operations, with the felding of three Advanced Dolphin submarines through the rest of the decade. These submarines are equipped with air independent propulsion sys-


earlier in 2013, and is said to be looking for up to four aircraft to replace aging and difcult-to-maintain Russian transports.

The country is heavily investing in Western aircraft, and is replacing many Russian- and French-built helicopters through a wide-ranging contract with AgustaWestland for the AW139 utility helicopter, the AW101 three-engine heavy rotorcraft, now in use for long-range search-and-rescue (SAR) missions, and the Super Lynx 300 for shorter-range SAR operations.

A follow-on order for six Super Lynx will be used to support Algeria’s new Meko A200-class frigates ordered in 2012. Two of four ships will be built in Germany, while Thyssen-Krupp Marine Systems will build a dockyard in Algeria where the remaining two will be constructed. Armament will include Saab RBS-15 Mk.3 antiship missiles, vertically launched Denel Umkhonto missiles and an Oto Melara 76-mm. Super Rapid gun. Also modernizing its Navy is Oman, which is now taking delivery of BAE Systems Al Khareef corvettes armed with MBDA Exocet Block III and Mica VL missiles.

Missile defense is increasing in importance in the region as the threat from ballistic missiles—both nuclear-tipped and conventional precision-guided versions—continues to loom.

The UAE placed a long-expected order for Lockheed Martin’s Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) launchers and missiles in September. Oman is also negotiating for a defense system that is likely to include Raytheon’s TPY-2 radar, Thaad and Lockheed Martin’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also looking at BMD systems.

Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance continue to be a big focus—in large measure because those capabilities have been neglected until now. The UAE is acquiring the General Atomics Predator XP unmanned air system, and Abu Dhabi Autonomous System Investments, a subsidiary of the royal-family-owned Tawazun engineering and defense group, is the program manager for the Piaggio Aero Multirole Patrol Aircraft (MPA), due to fy this year.

The Piaggio MPA’s cabin size, range and endurance approx-imate the capability of Boeing’s Maritime Surveillance Air-craft (MSA), which the U.S. company launched at the Dubai air show in recognition of its regional signifcance. Based on the Bombardier 605 airframe, the MSA uses the workstations, avionics backbone and software from the U.S. Navy’s P-8A Poseidon, mated to less costly sensors—including a Selex-ES Seaspray 7000E radar—and lacking any antisubmarine war-fare capability. Boeing’s MSA demonstrator, being modifed by Canada’s Field Aviation, is also due to fy this year.

So far, few Gulf States operate fxed-wing maritime patrol aircraft, mainly relying on helicopters for anti-shipping and submarine warfare. The UAE has invested in a pair of modi-fed Bombardier Dash 8-Q300s, while Oman awaits delivery of its frst maritime patrol Airbus Military C295. Airborne early warning remains an open requirement for some regional air forces, too, and a likely target for Saab and Embraer, who are considering a combination of an improved EriEye radar with Embraer’s E-175 as a follow-on to the EMB-145-based R-99. c

tems, extending their submerged range and speed. They are believed to be part of the nation’s second-strike strategic force, armed with Israeli-developed nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

While the submarine force is being strengthened and expanded, the surface feet is rapidly aging, and new mis-sions—such as securing the new ofshore energy platforms established throughout the country’s Economic Exclusion Zone—are increasing operational demands on the navy.

Israel’s ground forces are larger and more costly to operate and maintain than the other services and they have lagged in modernization. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has yet to fnd a way to adapt its force structure to meet threats expected in the region, within the political and economic realities it faces.

New equipment is often deferred because of budget cuts, and even where new equipment is being procured it rarely reaches the reserve units. However, the army is making some progress toward a transformation based on detailed situ-ational awareness—using sensors and broadband terrestrial and beyond line-of-sight satellite communications—and pre-cision fres, including guided artillery. c

The submarine Rahav is the second of the improved Dolphin class, with an air-independent propulsion system

Fie

ld

Av

iAtio

n

isrAel deFense Forces


Richard Fisher, Jr. Washington

Pursuit of PowerDefense spending bolsters China’s infuence

China’s confidence arises from its growing power. Despite fears of a slowdown, the Chinese government has been projecting a 7.6% economic growth rate for 2013, slightly above the ofcial goal of 7.5%. This should allow for another year of military spending growth in the 10% range, resulting in a 2014 estimated budget of about $126 billion. But according to U.S. Department of Defense adjust-ed estimates, China’s military spending for 2014 could rise to $174-$259 billion.

China claims the spending increases are driven by the ris-ing costs of personnel, logistics improvements and training. But larger budgets are also funding an aggressive modernization program, enabling China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to exercise greater power regionally, building toward global mili-tary power status by the 2020s.

New PLA commander and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Secretary General Xi Jinping has benefted from a career-long association with the PLA. He made numerous high-profle unit visits in 2013, helping both to build his support for the PLA and assert his authority over it. Xi is likely to spend much of 2014 doing the same, as con-trol of the PLA remains central to the continuation of CCP rule.

China is now making more use of the PLA to enforce maritime terri-torial claims in the East China Sea, frst around the Senkaku/Diayoutai Islands and then in the Spratly Island group in the South China Sea. In 2014, China is likely to increase its aggres-sive use of its newly consolidated coast guard to challenge Japanese coast

guard ships around the Senkakus. Despite China’s improving economic

relations with Taiwan, Beijing has made clear in words, and by the continued buildup of PLA forces in the Taiwan theater, that Taiwan’s political status will not remain “unresolved,” as Wash-ington describes it. For several years, Taiwanese military sources have told

Aviation Week that the main threat has evolved from blockade to invasion. A September 2013 report from the Tai-wan defense ministry asserted that by 2020, the PLA may be able to defeat external forces attempting to intervene against a PLA attack on Taiwan.

In 2014, the PLA will continue to fund many known programs intended to build regional power, and will likely reveal lesser-known programs. New missiles being procured will include a 4,000-km (2,500-mi.)-range interme-diate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), the medium-range DF-16 and the new short-range DF-12. The new 1,700-km-range DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) could be joined by an ASBM version of the new IRBM.

Alongside the stealthy Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-31 fghters, China

is also developing upgraded versions of existing designs: the Shenyang J-16 strike fghter, derived from the Sukhoi Su-27 via the “bootleg” J-11, and the single-engine Chengdu J-10B multi-role fighter. New medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned air systems are entering air force and navy units, while longer-range, high-altitude long-endurance UAS are in testing.

In 2014 China may also start build-ing an improved version of the Type

071 Landing Platform Dock (LPD) amphibious assault ship. Naval combatant production will include the new Type 052D air-defense escort destroyer and the Type 056 corvette, a class expected to number 30-40 ships. The Pentagon estimates that China will build up to 20

of the Yuan-class conventional subma-rine, with a new Type 093B version to include an air independent propulsion system based on a Stirling-cycle engine.

A high-profle Chinese navy squad-ron visit to Chile, Argentina and Brazil in October-November 2013 underscores the fact that China is pursuing several power-projection programs that will be funded in 2014. Shipyards in Dalian and Shanghai could start construction of dif-ferent aircraft carrier designs in 2014. In January 2013 Xian Aircraft started testing its new Y-20 short-takeof-and-landing heavy transport, expected to eventually be capable of carrying 65 tons of cargo when modifed with new Chinese high-bypass turbofans.

China’s nuclear investments may in-clude the large, road-mobile and multi-ple-warhead-capable DF-41 ICBM. New images of this missile suggest it may be transitioning from testing to produc-tion. Chinese sources also suggest that a longer 10,000-km range version of the JL-2 SLBM may be in development. c

DEFENSE PROFILES

China’s imposition of an Air Defense Identification Zone (Adiz) over the East China Sea sparked pro-tests across the region. The Adiz—defned by a set of rules that require any air trafc in the area to identify itself and comply with Chinese instructions—is not a hostile act in itself, but raises tensions between China and Japan, and consequently with the United States.

China

Estimated Budget

$126 billion (based on official figures)

1.41

2.28 million

United Nations peacekeeping operations, Somalia anti-piracy patrols

Percent of GDP


Deployments

So far unidentified, this UAS is smaller than the previously re-vealed Soar Dragon, which has a similar joined-wing configuration.

Ch

ine

se in

te

rn

et

Recently, Boeing and the U.S. Army successfully completed

a series of tests using the High Energy Laser Mobile

Demonstrator (HEL MD). Directed energy systems will

provide cost-effective capabilities to counter rocket,

artillery and mortar (C-RAM), and threats from unmanned

aerial vehicles. The HEL MD is harnessing the power of

directed energy to strengthen and protect the warfighter.




Rising Power

Forging the Chain

New government reverses spending cuts

New weapons aim at North Korean nuclear threat

The focus areas remain the same: defense of the remote southwestern is-lands facing China, ballistic missile de-fense against North Korea, and defense against guerrilla/commando raids. The latter is seen as a doubtful way to justify some questionable army programs, no-tably a newly unveiled 8 X 8 maneuver combat vehicle carrying a 105-mm. gun.

A dedicated amphibious unit will be created to defend islands in the China

Sea, and two U.S. AAV7s are to be ac-quired as test vehicles. A small sum is budgeted to look at introducing Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey tiltrotors and new airborne early warning aircraft to even-tually replace Grumman E-2Cs based in Okinawa. Kawasaki is launching a sales campaign for an AEW version of its four-jet P-1 maritime patrol aircraft.

If approved, big-ticket items in the 2014 budget include four Lock-

heed Martin F-35A fight-ers, four Ka-wasaki P-1s, the second 5 , 0 0 0 - t o n 25DD gener-al -purpose d e s t r o y e r and the tenth

improved Soryu-class submarine.Major research and development

programs in the 2014 budget request include a new ground-based fre-con-trol radar to counter stealthy targets such as the Chinese J-20, and key tech-nologies for a future indigenous stealth fghter—such as one-piece fastener-free airframe structures and small-diame-ter, high-thrust “slim” engines. The defense ministry’s Technical Research and Development Institute displayed a fghter concept—24DMU (2012 digital mock-up)—at a publicity event in Tokyo in late October; it looks like a mixture of Sukhoi T-50 and Northrop YF-23. The concept was used in air combat simula-tions to set requirements for a future fghter to replace the Mitsubishi F-2. c

Defense Profiles

Japan’s 2014 defense budget request asks for a 3% increase over the 2013 budget, continuing the sudden upward trend set in motion by the right-wing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe upon his December 2012 return to power. The previous center-left government planned a 1.3% decrease in defense spending, which had already seen 10 consecutive contractions since 2003.

South Korea’s 2014 defense budget, if approved as is, will see a 3.8% increase—good news by global stan-dards, but well below the country’s 10-year average growth rate of 7%. The government’s campaign pledge to boost social welfare programs is squeezing defense spending, pushing its share of the budget below 15%.

About 30% of the defense budget is investment in new equipment, the rest covering operations and support. Two major new items are aimed directly at a potential nuclear missile threat from North Korea. One is a system-of-sys-tems approach known as Kill Chain, to fnd and destroy North Korean nuclear weapons before they could be used ($940 million), and the other is the Ko-rea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD, $113 million) system to shoot down missiles that evade the Kill Chain.

As the eyes of the Kill Chain, South Korea is expected to buy four Northrop

Grumman RQ-4 Block 30 Global Hawk unmanned surveillance aircraft in 2017-19. The 1,500-km-range (940-mi.) Hyun-moo 3 cruise missile and the 300-km-range Hyunmoo 2 tactical ballistic missile, both displayed for the frst time on armed forces day on Oct. 1, 2013, form the strike element of the Kill Chain.

The Global Hawk could be the weak-est link of the Kill Chain. North Korea’s 300-km-range S-200 surface-to-air missiles could shoot down the Global Hawk or force it away far enough to deny timely intelligence. The KAMD is not yet clearly defned and may well be

merged into a wider U.S.-l e d e f fo r t , depending on the govern-ment’s politi-cal will.

The 2014 b u d ge t re -quest a l lo -cates $689 million for the F-X Phase 3 project for

60 new fghters. The Boeing F-15 Si-lent Eagle, the only contender within budget, was rejected by an all-govern-ment committee last September. The defense ministry announced Nov. 22 that it would buy 40 Lockheed Martin F-35As within the F-X Phase 3, after revising its operational requirements such that only the F-35A could meet them; 20 more F-35s may follow after 2023. On the same day the ministry fixed operational requirements for the KF-X, a project to develop a new fighter positioned between the F-35 and F-16. However, only $9.4 million is requested for the KF-X in 2014, just enough to keep it on life support. c

Japan

Estimated Budget

¥4.8 trillion ($49.1 billion)

1.0

247,362

Djibouti (ships & aircraft) &

South Sudan (peacekeepers)

Percent of GDP


Deployments

south Korea

Estimated Budget

35.8 trillion won ($33.7 billion)

2.5

631,894

Gulf of Aden (1 destroyer),

Lebanon & South Sudan

(peacekeepers), South Korea,

UAE (advisers)

Percent of GDP


Deployments

The air force’s Long-Term Integrated Perspective Plan 2002-17 moves it toward its government-approved target of 42 squadrons by 2022, up from the current 34, while replacing much obsolete equipment. The plan covers phased acquisition of fghters, transport aircraft, helicopters, radars and missile systems. By 2022, spending on new air force equipment is ex-pected to reach $37 billion.

The biggest deal of all is the $20 billion Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) project—which is still not under contract, despite selection of the Dassault Rafale in early 2012. The complex program includes extensive industrial participa-tion and technology transfer. India is also preparing a follow-on program—the Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), based on the Sukhoi T-50. Plans call for 214 aircraft to be built,

incorporating more indigenous technology than the Rafale.

The air force also plans to buy around 220 Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). Orders for the ini-tial 20 have been placed with an In-dian consortium led by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., while the service introduces 123 BAE Systems Hawk trainers, and 75 Pilatus PC-7 Mk 2s.

The military also is under orders to promote growth of the domes-tic defense industry, unveiling new rules in 2013 making procurement from foreign vendors a last resort.

The first option is to buy from India, followed by “buy and make India,” in which private and public sector companies can team with foreign vendors to produce foreign-developed military equipment in India. Other less-desirable options include “buy and make with transfer of technology,” and “buy global.”

However, urgent operational requirements and small-batch orders of high-tech equipment continue to drive for-eign purchases, such as Lockheed Martin C-130s and Boeing AH-64 Apache helicopters.

The inherent tension between imported and indigenous equipment is also apparent in navy procurements. The ex-Soviet aircraft carrier Vikramaditya, after extensive and much-delayed modifcations, was formally commissioned in Russia in November and in early December was en route to India, expected to patrol the Indian Ocean with an air wing of new MiG-29K fghters.

The frst indigenous carrier—the gas-turbine-powered Vi-krant—was launched in August, but completion was delayed by technical difculties and the Vikramaditya’s cost overruns. c



OverloadAdvance in all directions

India’s defense budget for 2013-14 was a more modest expansion than the double-digit increases of previ-ous years, refecting slower economic growth. However, the budget is none-theless heading toward the $50 billion mark, including an estimated $15 billion on new air platforms (for the air force and navy) in the next two years.

India

Estimated Budget

$46 billion (based on offcial fgures)

2.5

1.3 million active, 2.1 million reserve

U.N. peacekeeping and other operations including Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Haiti, Lebanon, Liberia, South Sudan, plus naval counter-piracy operations.

Percent of GDP


Deployments


All At SeaMaritime threats dominate Asia plans

Asia-Pacific nations are expected to spend about $1.4 trillion on military pro-grams in 2013-18, an estimated 55% in-crease over the $919.5 billion the coun-tries spent during 2008-12, according to an AW&ST analysis of data provided by Avascent Analytics.

An important development for some regional nations, in-cluding Taiwan and Singapore, will be progress with upgrades for the Lockheed Martin F-16. Although Singapore was tilting toward the F-35B in 2013, the country’s defense minister, Ng Eng Hen, said in late December that the country was in no hurry to commit to a buy and would look at F-16 upgrades frst.

South Korea has already launched its own upgrade pro-

gram with BAE Systems as prime contractor; the U.S. Air Force wants allies to join its own program, headed by Lock-heed Martin, but its start may be delayed by budget cuts. That could make the Korean program look more attractive.

Another major regional aircraft program nearing a decision point is Australia’s Air 7000 maritime patrol project. Austra-lia has been closely involved with the U.S. Navy/Boeing P-8A Poseidon project, and has been planning to acquire aircraft with the Increment 2 equipment standard that includes the new multistatic, active, coherent acoustic technology. Boeing has been predicting a production contract this year. Unknown is whether Australia will stick to its plans for a mixed force of P-8As and Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton unmanned surveillance aircraft—Boeing has been promoting more Posei-dons, and General Atomics has been proposing the less-costly Predator B.

A major defense procurement decision at the end of 2013 could be a trendsetter for the region: Singapore’s choice of Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems’ HDW unit to build its next two submarines under a contract in the €1 billion ($1.36 bil-lion) range. The designation, Type 218SG, is new, and while the boats are certain to be diesel-electric types with an air-independent propulsion, and Atlas Elektronic and Sin-gapore’s ST Electronics are known to be collaborating on the combat system, little else has been released. c


Amy Butler Washington

Fight and TrainHaving overcome some

technical challenges,

the F-35 remains

the world’s leading

combat aircraft

However, its competitors—the Boe-ing F/A-18E/F, Dassault Rafale, Euro-fghter Typhoon and Saab Gripen—are all continuing with upgrade plans for a diverse set of customers, some of whom will eventually buy the F-35 and others who cannot aford it.

The F-35’s edge was afrmed in No-vember when Seoul bypassed its own procurement agency’s recommenda-tion to purchase 60 semi-stealthy Boeing F-15 Silent Eagles in order to buy fewer F-35s within a set budget of 8.3 trillion won ($7.7 billion). South Korea’s decision follows Japan’s choice in late 2011 of the F-35, which both countries have been willing to buy at a premium, sacrifcing tail numbers in their force structures for stealth and integrated avionics.

Seoul’s decision likely buries Boe-ing’s ambitions to sell the Silent Eagle variant of its venerable F-15; both the Strike Eagle and the F/A-18E/F Super

Hornet and EA-18G Growler are built at the company’s facility in St. Louis. The Silent Eagle was to include con-formal weapons bays and employ fy-by-wire controls. It is unclear whether the company will snag more F-15 sales beyond those to Saudi Arabia; Riyadh’s last aircraft is scheduled to roll of the line in 2018.

Boeing ofcials say the Silent Eagle options—including the stealthy weap-ons bay, the fy-by-wire controls and digital electronic warfare system—will remain as options for legacy F-15 cus-tomers choosing to retroft their feets.

For the twin-engine Super Hornet/Growler line, Boeing ofcials are up-beat about further buys from the U.S. Navy, which has always been the last of the three Pentagon services to buy the F-35 in volume. Ship trials slated for 2014 could jolt it out of its lukewarm stance, however. The company must decide by March whether to use its

own funding to keep long-lead Super Hornet and Growler production activi-ties in play. Boeing ofcials are antici-pating another Navy order in the fscal 2015 budget, which is expected to go to Congress in February; that would likely trigger Boeing funding for the line until the contract is solid, says Mike Gibbons, Boeing’s Super Hornet vice president.

“Boeing financially has the ability to keep this line going,” Gibbons notes. The company has cash on hand largely because of its balanced defense and space portfolio and hearty commercial aircraft backlog.

Boeing received another blow in December when Brazil selected Saab’s JAS39E/F Gripen over the Super Hor-net (and Dassault Rafale) for a 36-air-craft order. The F/-18E/F had been lead-ing the long-running FX-2 competition until revelations of U.S. spying on Bra-zilian ofcials, and the Rafale was re-jected as too costly. Gibbons says there is still interest in the Super Hornet in Canada, Denmark, Kuwait, Malaysia and unnamed Middle Eastern coun-tries. But decisions that could provide confdence in future orders are not ex-pected in the near term.

New and potential orders notwith-standing, the heyday of Super Hornet/Growler production is likely in the past. Gibbons says the current annual pro-

With the first F-35 customer—the U.S. Marine Corps—set to declare operational capability with the single-engine, stealthy fghter in as little as 18 months, the Lockheed Martin jet continues to dominate the global fghter market.

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video review of combat aircraft developments in 2013, or go to

AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014

Defense

The U.S. Navy may buy con-formal fuel tanks for its Super Hornets and Growlers but has committed to no date.

Bo

ein

g

duction rate of 48 aircraft is likely to be cut by 25% next year and eventually lowered again, to 24 an-nually. Company ofcials are look-ing for lessons from a similar rate reduction in the C-17 transport, aiming to keep the per-unit Super Hornet price at $37 million (not including engines and electronic-warfare systems) while reducing the production rate. Including all government-furnished equipment, Gibbons says the Navy pays a $50 million fyaway price for the Super Hornet. A Growler is expected to cost about $9 million more.

The Eurofghter consortium is expected to face a similar decision for its Typhoon production infra-structure, with the last fighter scheduled to come of of the line in 2017. The Tranche 3 Typhoon had its frst fight in early December, incor-porating improved avionics comput-ing power; fuel-dump and provisions for an active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar; high-speed data network; fiber-optic weapons bus, and conformal fuel tanks. A Typhoon package with an improved radar is ex-

pected for delivery at the end of 2015.Meanwhile, Saab is under contract

to develop the JAS 39E production version of the Gripen NG demonstra-tor, frst fown in 2008, and to modify 60 Swedish Gripen Cs to Gripen Es. Swit-zerland is expected to buy 22 Gripen Es in 2014. The upgraded fghter features

an AESA radar, General Electric F414 engine and increased fuel and weapon loads.

Although losing in Brazil, the Rafale was selected as India’s Me-dium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) and France’s modern-ization program. The contract for India’s largest single defense buy to date, for 126 fghters, is not likely to be issued until April. At the same time, France has begun to take de-livery of its latest, fourth-tranche, two-seat Rafales. They include the RBE2 AESA radar and upgraded missile-warning capability. An ear-lier version of the Rafale was instru-mental in French operations in Mali, where the aircraft conducted aerial surveillance and ground-attack mis-sions. The Rafale and Typhoon were also being eyed by the United Arab

Emirates, but the UAE put Eurofghter negotiations on ice in December, and the status of Rafale talks was not clear.

Despite this activity, Paris has pro-posed slowing Rafale production to 26 aircraft over six years, from the current 11-aircraft annual rate.

Not unlike the Rafale, Lockheed

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 30, 2013/JANUARY 6, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Combat Aircraft To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

WING

SPAN

(FT.)

MAX.

LENGTH

(FT.)

MAX.

HEIGHT

(FT.)

WING

AREA

(SQ. FT.)

EMPTY

WEIGHT

(LB.)

GROSS

WEIGHT

(LB.)

ENGINES (NO./TYPE)

THRUST

(AFTER-

BURNING)

PERFORMANCE

LOADING

BOEING DEFENSE, SPACE & SECURITY

F-15E Strike Eagle 42.8 63.8 18.7 609.4 37,000 81,000 2 X P&W F100-229 or GE F110-129

29,000 lb. each

M 2.5-class 24,500 lb. external

F/A-18E/F Super Hornet 44.9 60.2 16 500 32,080/ 32,795

66,000 2 X GE F414-400 22,000 lb. each

M 1.8+ 11 weapons stations

DASSAULT AVIATION

Rafale C/B/M 36 50 17.5 492 22,000 54,000 2 X Snecma M88-2 17,000 lb. each M 1.8 21,000 lb. external

EUROFIGHTER JAGDFLUGZEUG GMBH

Eurofghter 35.11 52.4 17.4 538 24,250 51,809 2 X Eurojet EJ200 20,000 lb. each

M 2 16,535 lb. external

LOCKHEED MARTIN AERONAUTICS CO.

F-35A Lightning II 35 51.5 14.1 460 29,300 68,000 1 X P&W F135-100 43,000 lb. M 1.6 Internal: 2 X AIM-120, 2 X GBU-2

SAAB AB

JAS 39E/F Gripen NG 28.2 46.3 14.8 — 15,700 36,400 1 X GE F414G 22,000 lb. M 2 15,870 lb. external

SUKHOI DESIGN BUREAU JSC

Su-35 50.2 71.9 19.4 667 — 76,059 2 X NPO Saturn 117S31,970 lb. each

M 2.25 17,640 lb. external

Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specifcations on in-production and under-development combat aircraft

and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs

Fighter/Attack/Trainer AircraftUnit Production,

Percentage of Market Share 2014-18

LockheedMartin 31%

467

Euro�ghter13.5%

204

Pilatus11.1%

167

KoreanAerospace 9.6%

144

All Others 23.7%

358

Boeing 11.1%

168

Total Five-Year Production: 1,508Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network

Aircraft manufactured in China, India and Russia not forecast

All percentages rounded.

Martin’s F-16 is being modernized by several customers as well. Singapore will upgrade at least some of its F-16s while it considers purchasing the F-35. Singapore is expected to follow Taiwan and the U.S. in pursuing an AESA ra-dar for the F-16. Northrop Grumman’s Scaled Agile Beam Radar (SABR), based on the radars employed by the F-22 and F-35, has been selected by prime contractor Lockheed Martin for the F-16. The U.S. Air Force is also considering structural upgrades to get more f ying hours out of its F-16s.

As these programs are relying large-ly on upgrades, the F-35 footprint con-tinues to grow. In 2013, Italy of cially started work at its f nal assembly and checkout (FACO) facility at Cameri Air Base in the country’s northern indus-trial sector. The Italian government invested roughly $1 billion to construct the state-of-the-art FACO there, which is being op-erated under the leadership of Alenia Aermacchi.

Defense of cials hope to es-tablish a regional maintenance, repair and overhaul facility for European and Middle Eastern F-35s with some of the facility’s excess capacity. The f rst F-35 from the FACO is expected to be delivered to Amendola Air Base in Italy in 2016.

Another FACO facility will be built by Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Indus-tries, according to an agreement signed last summer.

The F-35 took a major step in overcoming a thorny technical shortfall in October when the U.S. Joint Program Of ce ended its contract with BAE Systems to provide an alternative to the primary helmet-mounted display being built by Vision Systems International (VSI) (a joint ven-ture between Elbit Systems and Rockwell Collins). The Pentagon started the alternative design, which would have employed a less sophisticated helmet-mounted display, in 2011 due to persistent problems with jitter and the night-vision capability in high-stress conditions.

The fixes to VSI’s original helmet will be incorporated into the so-called Gen-3 helmet and tested in the coming months. The Gen-3 helmet will be incor-porated into the production sys-

tem with low-rate, initial-production Lot 7 aircraft being delivered in 2016.

F-35 weapons testing is also moving forward: The three weapons required for the U.S. Marine Corps initial op-

erational capabil-ity (IOC) decision have been dropped. They are the 500-lb. laser-guided bomb, 1 ,000- lb. Joint Direct At-tack Munition and the AIM-120. F-35 program officials will continue to expand weapons testing, including guided test flights

and more stressing conditions. They are hoping to wrap up testing for this

trio of weapons in March 2015, to meet a possible IOC declaration in the sum-mer of 2015.

For the most part, looking ahead to 2014, the fast-jet trainer market re-mains in largely the same shape as in recent years. This is primarily due to the U.S. Air Force’s decision to delay buys of a T-38 replacement until 2015 or beyond; the slip was prompted by fund-ing cuts imposed on the Pentagon. The service says it will buy 350 or more of the aircraft, and it hopes to keep costs down, possibly by purchasing an off-the-shelf option. As the lead-in trainer for the F-22 and F-35, the Air Force is looking for an integrated training sys-tem incorporating the cutting edge in ground-based simulation as well as airborne elements. Budget pressure in Washington is forcing the service to

look for a low-cost option. This could come from Boeing

and Saab, which announced in late 2013 that they are teaming to design and build a brand-new aircraft for the forthcoming re-quirement. Though the design will not be a Gripen, team of -cials say it will draw on lessons from that aircraft in addition to Boeing’s extensive f ghter work.

The pair will take on a well-established f eld of competitors for the T-X program, including Northrop Grumman/BAE, of er-ing the Hawk; General Dynam-ics/Alenia Aermacchi, of ering the M-346 and Korea Aerospace Industries/Lockheed Martin, proposing the T-50.

Iraq announced in Decem-ber that it will buy 24 F-50s, fighter versions of the T-50, in a deal valued at $1.1 billion. The Philippines is expected to order the type as well. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 30, 2013/JANUARY 6, 2014 61

Fighter/Attack/Trainer AircraftValue of Production


Billions of U.S. Fiscal 2014 Dollars

Lockheed Martin

52.1%

$84.7

Eurofghter25.1%

$40.8

Dassault3.7% $5.9

KoreanAerospace

2.1% $3.5

All Others 6.5% $10.5

Boeing10.5%

$17.1

Total Five-Year Value of Production: $162.6 billionSource: Aviation Week Intelligence Network

Aircraft manufactured in China, India and Russia not forecast

All numbers and percentages rounded.

Weapons testing for the Amraam, 1,000-lb. Joint Direct Attack Muni-tion and 500-lb. laser-guided bomb should wrap up on the F-35 in March 2015 in prepara-tion for the U.S. Marine Corps IOC declaration later that year.

LO

CK

HEED

MA

RTIN



Cargo ShiftSpecial missions an increasingly important role

for armed forces’ transport aircraft

Lockheed Martin continues to build the C-130J tactical airlifter and Boeing is developing the KC-46A tanker/trans-port for the U.S. Air Force, but aircraft available from foreign suppliers now range from light tactical transports to strategic airlifters and tankers. China, India and Russia also are developing aircraft that could enter the interna-tional marketplace later this decade.

It will not be the frst time the U.S. has ceded a market to foreign manu-facturers, but a dearth of smaller platforms from domestic sources could become an issue as the global market grows for missions ranging from intelligence, surveillance and re-connaissance (ISR) to maritime patrol aircraft (MPA). North of the border, Bombardier is marketing its Chal-lenger and Global business jets and Q Series regional turboprops for special missions. In Europe, Airbus is fnding new roles for its CN235 and C295 light transports, while Alenia Aermacchi is

expanding the capabilities of its C-27J.When it comes to special-mission

aircraft, the U.S. ofers sparse choice: Boeing’s P-8A Poseidon for high-end maritime patrol and 737 airborne ear-ly warning & control (AEW&C); Gulf-

stream’s G550 (and perhaps G650) for AEW&C, ISR and MPA; Beechcraft’s workhorse C-12 King Air turboprop for low-end ISR; and single-turboprops such as the ATK/Cessna Combat Cara-van and Northrop Grumman/Kodiak Air Claw. In Europe, ATR offers a maritime-patrol ATR 42 and antisub-

marine-warfare (ASW) ATR 72, the latter jointly with Turkish Aerospace Industries. Dassault sells maritime-patrol Falcon 900s and 2000s.

Embraer is delivering EMB-145 AEW&C platforms to India and has produced ISR and MPA variants of the regional jet. Pilatus has found an ISR niche for its single-turboprop PC-12, and Piaggo is developing a maritime-patrol variant of the twin-turboprop P180 Avanti, with a prototype set to fly in 2014. Even out-of-production regional aircraft are being ofered up for modification, with BAE Systems proposing a low-cost tanker version of the BAE 146/Avro 146 and Saab of-fering Swordfsh MPA and Airtracer Elint/Comint versions of the Saab 2000, already in service as the Erieye for AEW&C.

Tactical transports make good plat-forms for special missions, as Lock-heed Martin has demonstrated with

the Harvest Hawk armed recce kit for U.S. Marine Corps KC-130Js and the Shadow Harvest roll-on/roll-of ISR system. Lock-heed is continuing to seek launch customers for the SC-130J Sea Herc ASW/MPA variant. Airbus, meanwhile has delivered ASW variants of the

C295, is ofering an AEW&C variant with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) active-array radar and is testing a roll-on/roll-of frefghting kit. The smaller CN235 is available as an MPA, and ATK is converting one to a gunship for Jordan.

Alenia Aermacchi, with partners

With Airbus beginning deliveries of Europe’s A400M in 2013, Brazil’s Embraer scheduled to fy the

KC-390 in 2014 and Boeing ending C-17 production in

2015, the center of gravity of the military

airlifter market has begun to move away from the U.S.

DEFENSE SYSTEMS

A dearth of smaller platforms

from domestic U.S. sources

could become an issue as the

global market grows.

The Airbus A400M entered service in 2013, but customers are adjust-ing delivery plans.

Airbus

ATK and Selex ES, has a launch order from the Italian air force to convert six of its 12 C-27J airlifters into MC-27J Praetorian ISR gunships with a pallet-ized 30-mm gun, electro-optical (EO) sensor and mission system. Seven of

the U.S. Air Force’s unwanted C-27Js are being transferred to Special Oper-ations Command, but no details of the planned modifcations have been re-leased. Romania is testing an air-drop frefghting capacity for its C-27Js.

Seeing the move to smaller plat-

forms for special missions, Boeing has selected Bombardier’s Challenger 605 business jet as the platform for its Maritime Surveillance Aircraft (MSA). A company-owned Challenger 604 is being modifed with radar, EO sensor,

electronic support measures and a mission system based on that devel-oped for the P-8. Customer demon-strations are planned in 2014, with the MSA to be available beginning in 2015. Leading the trend to use business jets as platforms, IAI has already devel-

oped AEW&C, Sigint and multi-intel-ligence variants of Gulfstream’s G550. Bombardier’s Global is the platform for both battlefield-surveillance and communications-gateway missions.

Aviation Week Intelligence Network

(AWIN) forecasts deliveries of 471 mili-tary transport/tanker aircraft over the next fve years, valued at $57.2 bil-lion. Thanks to its smaller CN235 and C295, Airbus will lead in numbers with 38.4% of the total (181 aircraft) ahead of Lockheed Martin (33.3%) and Boeing


Boeing’s King Air 350ER-based Emarss is in flight test, but produc-

tion plans are unclear.

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(11.7%). And thanks to the large A400M, Airbus will also lead in dollar terms with 38.4% of the forecast value of production, again ahead of Lockheed Martin (31.6%) and Boeing (19.3%). Embraer will begin to make its presence felt when KC-390


DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Military Transports To Watch

MODEL/

DESIGNATION

CREW

WING

SPAN

(FT.)

MAX.

LENGTH

(FT.)

MAX.

HEIGHT

(FT.)

WING AREA

(SQ. FT.)

EMPTY

WEIGHT

(LB.)

GROSS

WEIGHT

(LB.)

POWER-

PLANT

(NO./TYPE)

POWER (SHP.)

OR THRUST

(LB.)

SPEED

PAYLOAD/

RANGE

Airbus MilitAry

A400M Atlas 2+1 139.1 148 48.3 2,384 169,000 300,900 4 X EPI TP400-D6

11,000 shp ea M 0.7 66,140 lb./ 2,450 nm

C295 2 84.7 80.3 28.4 645.8 N/A 51,150 2 X P&WC PW127G

2,645 shp ea 260 kt. 12,450 lb/ 2,120 nm

AleniA AerMAcchi

C-27J Spartan 2+1 94.2 74.5 31.6 882.6 38,581 70,107 2 X R-R AE2100D2

4,637 shp ea 325 kt. 22,046 lb./ 1,000 nm

Antonov

An-70 3-5 144.5 133.7 53.9 2,181 163,140 319,675 4 X Prog-ress D-27

55,200 shp ea 405 kt. 44,000 lb./ 1,619 nm

eMbrAer

KC-390 2 115 113.2 33.7 — — 178,570 2 X IAE V2500-E5

29,000 lb. ea M 0.80 41,890 lb./ 2,000 nm

boeing

KC-46A 3-15 156.1 165.5 52.8 3,050 — 415,000 2 X P&W 4062

62,000 lb. ea M 0.86 212,300 lb. (fuel capacity)

lockheed MArtin

C-130J-30 Super Hercules

3 132.6 112.8 39.5 1,745 79,815 175,000 4 X R-R AE2100D3

4,637 shp ea 355 kt. 42,000 lb. (max.)

Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specifcations on in-production and under-development military transports


Military Transport AircraftUnit Production


LockheedMartin

33.3%

157

Embraer6.2% 29

Kawasaki2.5% 12

Alenia Aermacchi7.9% 37

AirbusMilitary 38.4%

181

Boeing11.7% 55

Total Five-Year Production: 471

Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network

Aircraft manufactured in China, India and Russia not forecast.

All percentages rounded. Includes tanker/transports.

Military Transport AircraftValue of Production



Lockheed Martin

31.6%

$18.1

AirbusMilitary38.4%

$22

Kawasaki4.7% $2.7

Alenia Aermacchi3.4% $2

Embraer 2.5% $1.5

Boeing19.3%

$11

Total Five-Year Value of Production: $57.2 billionSource: Aviation Week Intelligence Network


All numbers and percentages rounded. Includes tanker/transports.

deliveries begin, scheduled for 2016.

The most popular platform for manned ISR missions remains Beechcraft’s twin-turboprop King Air. The U.S. Army operates a large fleet of varied models of the King Air under the C-12 designa-tion, and has begun a Future Utility Aircraft program to replace more than 112 C-12s with a common fixed-wing platform. The Army issued an initial request for informa-tion in March 2013, seeking a twin-engine aircraft with increased hot-and-high per-formance and the ability to operate in degraded visual environments.

Meanwhile, the Army is continuing development of the Enhanced Medium Altitude Reconnaissance and Surveil-lance System (Emarss) based on the King Air 350ER. Boe-ing has produced four develop-ment aircraft for testing, but a production program is still in

question. At the same time, budget cuts may force the U.S. Air Force to divest its entire fleet of 36 King Air-based MC-12W Liberty ISR aircraft, acquired in 2009 to meet urgent operational requirements in Afghanistan. c

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Similar to Russia’s vaunted S-300, the FD-2000 edged out MBDA-led Eu-rosam’s SAMP/T. Raytheon’s Patriot placed third in the evaluation, prompt-ing the U.S. to review whether factors beyond cost—such as capability—fg-ured in Turkey’s decision. If fnalized, the deal would be a coup for China that could transform the missile market.

Global missile production is project-ed to be worth $65.4 billion over the next fve years, up almost 6% from last year’s forecast, with a steady increase expected from $12.2 billion in 2014 to a high of $13.8 billion in 2017. Production will actually drop—refecting the high price of some systems—to 38,177 units in 2018 from 42,576 in 2014. Forecast International expects 202,200 missiles of all types to be produced during the fve-year period.

The anti-armor segment will slide

over the next five years, having entered a transition phase where product ion of older missiles is winding down but re p l ace m e n t s y s -tems have yet to en-ter service. The U.S., for example, is not expected to launch full development of its replacement for the Lockheed Martin AGM-114 Hellfre, the Joint Air-to-Ground Missile, before fscal 2015.

The fve-year anti-armor market will be worth $5.1 billion. Total production will reach 109,925 missiles, but will decline from a forecast 24,204 units in 2014 to low of 19,446 in 2018. U.S. manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are the dominant players and together will account for a 30% ($1.5 billion) value share of the market. Europe’s anticipated posi-

tion has deteriorated, but will recover as new systems become available.

Raytheon still produces AGM-65 Maverick and BGM-71 TOW missiles, but is focused on fnding new missions for the AGM-176 Grifn mini-missile used by U.S. special forces, including defending ships against fast boats, and customers for a smaller deriva-tive, the Pyros. Europe’s MBDA, meanwhile, is targeting U.S. sales, aiming to get its dual-mode Brimstone on Predator unmanned aircraft and expanding the capability of its GBU-44 Viper Strike munition.

The anti-ship market will total $5.26 billion over the next fve years, up almost 5% over last year’s forecast, with production approaching nearly 6,500 missiles. Russia and China are the leading producers, projected to account for about 51% of production

DEFENSE SYSTEMS


Graham Warwick Washington and Larry Dickerson Forecast International

Marked TargetCompetition increasing as China, new

systems shake up the missile market

Turkey’s revelation in October that it was negotiating to buy air-defense systems from China shocked not only its NATO allies, but also Western missile manufacturers. Although not a done deal, Ankara says China’s ofer of CPMIEC FD-2000 anti-missile systems costs less and promises better technology transfer.

MissilesUnit Production


*Norinco 15%

29,992

Raytheon12%

23,744

MBDA6%

11,232KBPInstrument

5%

10,413

All Others53%

108,784**CPMIEC

9%

18,479

Total Five-Year Production: 202,644Source: Forecast International

*Norinco: China North Industries Co.

**CPMIEC: China National Precision Machinery Import & Export Corp.


As Chinese and Russian air defense systems met notable

milestones last year, the U.S. Ground-Based Missile De-

fense (GMD) system—the most sophisticated anti-missile sys-

tem deployed—continued to produce disappointing test results.

GMD overseers at the U.S. Missile Defense Agency hope to

conduct a successful fight test of the system early in 2014;

the last successful intercept took place in December 2008. A

string of failures were due largely to complications with the new

Amy Butler Washington

GoinG BAllisticRaytheon Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV); Boeing is the GMD

prime contractor.

Once the GMD booster and new capability enhancement

(CE-2) kill vehicle achieves a successful intercept, the agency

is hoping to test GMD more regularly. MDA is also studying op-

tions for a new kill vehicle that could replace the EKV and other

systems in the arsenal and, longer term, looking at the use of

unmanned aircraft for boost-phase kill options.

Meanwhile, the new Russian Almaz Antey S-350E air de-

fense system, dubbed the Vityuz or Viking, made its debut at the

2013 Moscow air show. It is intended as a replacement for the

S-300 series of surface-to-air-missile systems and will incor-

porate more advanced capabilities.

AleniA AermAcchi

(3,332 units) over the next five years. But their exports are ex-pected to remain low, as Western systems are still preferred.

MBDA will lead with production of more than 800 mis-si les worth about $450 million, with ex-ports outside Europe expected to account for almost half of all Exocet sales. Boe-ing is forecast to sell

321 Harpoons worth $289 million, as the Block II missile’s low cost and risk ensures a steady fow of orders. Norway’s Kongsberg Defense still sells the Penguin, but its Naval Strike Missile will account for an increasing share of a forecast 171 deliveries worth $101 million.

France and the U.K. agreed in December to cooperate on development by MDBA of a new he-licopter-launched anti-ship missile. The U.S. wants to feld a new stealthy Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile by 2024, but controversy surrounds its plan to bypass competition and have Lockheed develop the weapon from a demonstrator built for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, based on the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standof Missile–Extended Range (Jassm-ER).

Jassm will give Lockheed the larg-est share ($1.4 billion) of a long-range strike market forecast at 18,550 mis-siles worth $6.3 billion over the next fve years. The closest competitors are Raytheon ($737 million) with the Tactical Tomahawk and AGM-164 Joint Standof Weapon, and Rus-sia’s Tactical Missiles Corp. ($524 million). MBDA, with forecast sales worth $418 million, will see its Storm

Shadow qualifed on the Eurofghter Typhoon by 2015, along with the MBDA/Saab Bofors Dynamics Taurus.

Air-to-air missile production is expected to be relatively fat from 2014 to 2018, with total deliveries of about 23,000 units worth $7.2 billion. Raytheon’s AIM-9X short- and AIM-120 medium-range missiles will account for 27.3% of produc-tion and 29.8% of value. The improved AIM-120D will be felded in 2014, followed in 2015 by MBDA’s rocket/ramjet-powered Meteor. While MBDA is expected to garner a 10.6% share of production, the relatively high price of its Mica and Meteor missiles will give it a 20% share of value. Russia’s Vympel, maker of the R-73 (AA-11) and R-77 (AA-12), will have a 15.8% share.

The air-defense market also is expected to remain rela-tively fat over the next fve years, totaling 44,900 missiles worth $19.2 billion. In value terms, Raytheon will dominate, with a 35.3% share. In the naval sector, international demand remains steady for the company’s RIM-116 RAM and RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow, while its longer-range RIM-174 SM-6 and anti-missile RIM-161 SM-3 carry hefty price tags. MBDA is developing the Sea Ceptor for felding by the U.K. Royal Navy in 2016 and has sold the AIM-132 Asraam-based missile

to New Zealand.On land, a competition in Poland will

be the frst to pit the Lockheed Martin/MBDA Medium Extended Air Defense System (Meads) against both Patriot and SAMP/T. The U.S. no longer had plans to buy the co-developed Meads, but partners Germany and Italy hope to persuade Poland to join the program to complete development and begin production.

A new emphasis on short-range defense against rockets and mortars could spur sales of systems such as Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling, which conducted its first ballistic-missile intercept in November. Israel alone could procure 13 Iron Dome batteries, with India and South Ko-rea possible export customers. The U.S. Army, meanwhile, plans to feld a surface-launched AIM-9X to counter cruise-missiles and UAVs. c


MissilesValue of Production



Raytheon15% $10.1

Lockheed Martin9% $5.8

All Others53%

$35.2

**CPMIEC 7% $4.6

***MITT 7% $4.4

*CASC 8% $5.3

Total Five-Year Value of Production: $65.4 billion Source: Forecast International

*CASC: China Aerospace Science & Technology Corp.

**CPMIEC: China National Precision Machinery Import & Export Corp.

***MITT: Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology


Turkey made a surprising decision in September to purchase

the China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp.’s HQ-9

air defense system over Russian, European and U.S. designs,

including the Patriot. As a member of NATO, it is unclear how the

new Turkish system will interoperate with U.S. and European sys-

tems in the NATO defense network. The deal is worth more than

$3 billion for 12 systems. Some U.S. industry experts say China

ofered a very low price alongside a sweetheart co-production

deal; they suggest the decision may not result in a contract.

The Raytheon-led Patriot and Lockheed Martin Terminal

High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) continue to garner interest

from foreign partners, with Middle Eastern countries at the fore-

front. Japan, however, has signed on for Patriot development

work, building of of improvements funded largely through the

2008 contract for the system signed by the United Arab Emir-

ates. Qatar is in talks for the Patriot as well.

With the development phase of the trinational Medium

Extended-Altitude Air Defense System (Meads) over, some coun-

tries are expressing interest in procuring the system and Meads

could become a contender in the area defense sector. The U.S.—a

foundational partner alongside Germany and Italy—has opted not

to buy Meads, leaving Berlin and Rome to look for a third partner

to move into production. Poland is said to be highly interested,

though no announcement has been made. The Meads team, led

by Lockheed Martin, successfully intercepted both an air breather

and ballistic threats during a single test, its graduation exercise. c

Eurofghter has begun fights to qualify MBDA’s Storm Shadow on

the Typhoon.


DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Graham Warwick Washington and Larry Dickerson Forecast International

Unmanned ProgressAs the U.S. looks for export markets,

Europe plays catch-up in UAS development

The region’s stumbling progress is an opportunity for U.S. manufacturers to export their systems and ofset the cutbacks in Pentagon UAS procure-ment, but the potential is limited by the Missile Technology Control Re-gime (MTCR) treaty, which bars the sale of UAS with payloads of 500 kg. or more without a hard-to-get waiver from the government.

But even as U.S. defense spending slows, the UAS market is expected to grow. The military market for surveil-lance and strike missions will be worth $67.3 billion from 2013-20, Forecast International projects. Of that total, $35.6 billion will be for production, $28.7 billion for research and devel-opment, and $2-3 billion for UAS ser-vices contracts. The production value is divided between air vehicles ($14.2 billion), ground control stations ($6.6 billion) and payloads ($14.8 billion).

Despite cuts to the U.S. Air Force’s RQ - 4B Global Hawk program, Northrop Grumman will be the top player in the UAS market. Even with reductions in the USAF feet, the Glob-al Hawk program will be worth some $5.8 billion to Northrop through 2022, including the U.S. Navy’s 68-aircraft MQ-4C Triton program. Germany can-celed plans to buy four Block 20-based EuroHawks in May 2013, citing air-space integration issues, but work to

declared an interest in the maritime-surveillance Triton.

Northrop will also garner $679.5 mil-lion by 2022 from its MQ-8 Fire Scout vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL) UAS program. Flight tests of the 6,000-lb. gross-weight, extended-endurance MQ-8C, based on the Bell 407 helicop-ter, began in October 2013 and produc-tion is switching to the bigger variant.

For now, navies are the main mili-tary customer for VTOL systems. Ground forces are showing interest, but programs are moving more slowly. Europe is moving less slowly in small rotary-wing UAS than in fxed-wing. Saab’s 520-lb. Skeldar V-200 is op-erational with the Spanish navy and Scheibel’s 440-lb. Camcopter S-100 has been sold to four countries and tested by several navies.

The U.K. awarded AgustaWestland a contract to demonstrate an optionally piloted, 4,000-lb. SW-4 Solo helicopter on a Royal Navy ship in 2014 as a step toward deploying a tactical maritime UAS on warships by 2020. France con-ducted similar land- and ship-based trials with Boeing’s 3,100-lb. H-6U Unmanned Little Bird, which also has been demonstrated to the South Ko-rean army.

General Atomics had been at the top of the military UAS market for years, due to demand for its MQ-1 Predator/MQ-9 Reaper family, and remains the leader in the largest sub-segment of the market: medium-altitude, long-en-durance (MALE) systems. The Preda-tor/Reaper family is forecast to gener-

ate $5.5 billion in production value through 2022, 40% of the segment total and 16% of the entire market.

The U.S. Army continues to buy MQ-1C Gray Eagles, but the Air Force plans to halve MQ-9 procure-ment from 2014, and the export mar-ket is constrained by MTCR restric-tions. In 2017, the Netherlands will become the fourth European nation to operate Reapers after France, It-aly and U.K. Australia, Canada and Germany are interested, but would not place orders before 2015-16. The United Arab Emirates has ordered fve Predator XP export versions of the MQ-1, and other Persian Gulf states have expressed interest.

In November, the defense minis-ters of France, Germany, Greece, It-

Europe’s shambolic efforts to create an unmanned-aircraft industry to rival the U.S. and Israel continue. But while the defense ministers of several nations have taken steps towards developing a European medium-altitude, long-endurance UAS by 2022, the tricky task of persuading the region’s industrial rivals to work to-gether is only beginning. Even China looks as though it could outpace Europe.

Major UAS ManufacturersPercentage of Market Share, 2014-23

Northrop Grumman 18.2%

Global Hawk

General Atomics 15.5%

Predator

AAI 2.2%

Shadow

IAI 1.9%

HeronBoeing 1.6%

ScanEagle

All Others 60.6%

Source: Forecast International


deliver fve Block 40s to NATO by 2016 is continuing.

Eforts to export the high-altitude, long-endurance UAS are progressing slowly. South Korea intends to order four RQ-4B Block 30s in 2014. Japan could follow with four in 2015. Canada and Norway are among nations eyeing the Global Hawk, while Australia has

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video review of UAS developments in 2013, or go to


Italy’s Piaggio Aero P.1HH will be the frst European-designed MALE UAS.

Pia

gg

io a

er

o

• 42-hour ISR-only endurance

• 2,900 nmi mission radius

• Field retrofitable to standard MQ-9 Reaper/Predator B

• High-capacity landing gear

• Proven multi-role platform for long endurance Intelligence, Surveillance and

Reconnaissance (ISR) missions

QAERONAUTICAL

TYUIOP©2013 General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Leading The Situational Awareness Revolutionwww.ga-asi.com

aly, Poland, Spain and the Netherlands endorsed development by the European Defense Agency of a common require-ment for a MALE UAS to be developed by 2020. An efort by France and the U.K. to have BAE Systems and Das-sault co-develop a MALE UAS, dubbed Telemos, has been shelved, but in June 2013 EADS, Dassault and Alenia Aer-macchi called for creating a European program and began joint defnition of a twinjet MALE UAS.

Italy, meanwhile, will work with Piaggio Aero and Selex ES to certify the P.1HH HammerHead—the first

European-developed MALE UAS and a derivative of the P.180 Avanti business turboprop—and consider the system for its long-term needs. A P.1HH demon-strator made its frst unmanned fight in November, and the UAS is to be ready to enter service in 2015. Development is being backed by Piaggio’s co-owners Mubadala of the UAE and India’s Tata.

For now, European companies con-trol less than 3% of the market’s value, but this share will grow as countries expand their UAS assets. Meanwhile, UAS orders from Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America could exceed


DEFENSE SYSTEMS

UAS Market ShareBy Location, 2014-23

Israeli 3.3%

European 2.85%

Pending Contracts 8.88%


U.S.37.8%

All Others 47.17%

Unmanned Aircraft To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

LENGTH

(FT.)

SPAN

(FT.)

GROSS

WEIGHT

(LB.)

POWERPLANT

(NO./TYPE)

POWER/

THRUST

PAYLOAD (WT./TYPE)

SPEED

(KT.)

ENDURANCE

MAX.

ALTITUDE

(FT.)

AAI Corp.

RQ-7B Shadow 11.8 20.4 460 1 X UEL AR741 rotary

38 hp 45-80 lb. (EO/IR/LD) 90-110 9 hr. 15,000

AeroVIronment InC.

RQ-11B Raven 3 4.5 4.2 1 X electric 200W 6.5 oz. (EO/IR) 17-44 60-90 min. 500

RQ-20A Puma AE 4.6 9.2 13 1 X electric 600W EO/IR 20-45 2 hr. 500

elbIt SyStemS

Skylark I-LE — 9.8 16.5 1 X electric — 2.6 lb. (EO/IR) 20-40 3 hr. 15,000

Hermes 450 20 34.5 1,200 1 X UEL AR801 rotary

60 hp 400 lb. (EO/IR/LD) 70-95 17 hr. 18,000

GenerAl AtomICS AeronAutICAl SyStemS

MQ-1C Gray Eagle 28 56 3,200 1 X Thielert Centurion 2.0 HFE

135 hp 1,075 lb internal/external 167 25 hr. 29,000

MQ-9 Reaper 36 66 10,500 1 X Honeywell TPE331-10

900 shp 3,850 lb internal/external 240 27 hr.+ 50,000

InSItu

ScanEagle 4.5 10.2 44 1 X NWUAV gas/HFE 1.9 hp 13 lb. (EO/IR) 48-80 24 hr.+ 19,500

RQ-21A/Integrator 7.2 16 135 1 X NWUAV gas/HFE 8 hp 37.5 lb. (EO/IR/LRF) 55-80+ 24 hr. 15,000+

ISrAel AeroSpACe InduStrIeS

Heron 1 28.2 55.8 2,800 1 X Rotax 914 100 hp 550-880 lb. (EO/IR/LD, SAR, ELINT, comm)

60-138 20-45 hr. 30,000+

Heron TP 45.9 85.3 10,230 1 X P&WC PT6A 1,200 shp 4,400 lb. (EO/IR, SAR, ELINT, comm)

242 36 hr. 45,000

loCkheed mArtIn

Fury 1500 — 14.3 300+ 1 X HFE — 75-125 lb (ISR + EW) 65-95 15 hr.+ 15,000

northrop GrummAn

MQ-4C Triton 47.6 130.9 32,250 1 X R-R AE3007H 9,500 lb. 3,200 lb. internal 2,400 lb. external

357 24 hr. 56,500

MQ-8C Fire Scout 41.4 35(rotor

dia.)

6,000 1 X R-R M250-C47E 700 shp 1,000 lb. internal 2,600 lb. sling load

140 12 hr. 17,000

pIAGGIo Aero

P.1HH HammerHead 47.3 51.2 13,500 2 X P&WC PT6A-66B 850 shp each

500 lb. (EO/IR, SAR) 395 16 hr. 45,000

Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specifcations on in-production and under-development unmanned

aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs

$2 billion during the coming decade, with purchases by the Israeli defense forces accounting for nearly half of this total. The annual production value of UAS in Asia will triple over the next 10 years, reaching $2.9 billion in 2022. Sales in Asia could account for $18 bil-lion of the market’s value during this period, with China claiming $13 billion of this total.

In clear signs of China’s growing capability in the unmanned sector, in

September Japanese fghters inter-cepted a Harbin BZK-005 Predator A-class MALE UAS exercising with warships, and in November a stealthy unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) made its first flight from Chengdu. The Lijian (Sharp Sword) resembles the Boeing Phantom Ray and Das-sault Neuron UCAV demonstrators in shape and size.

Demonstration flights of the U.S. Navy’s Northrop X-47B carrier-ca-pable unmanned combat aircraft will continue in 2014, as will fight tests of the Neuron and BAE Systems Taranis UCAV demonstrators. The only major new U.S. military UAS competition, for the Navy’s Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike, is to be decided by early 2015.

In the commercial arena, the FAA estimates 7,500 civil UAS could be op-erational in the U.S. within fve years, provided regulations enabling safe in-tegration into national airspace are in place by the end of 2015 as planned. The majority will be small UAS weigh-ing less than 55 lb., the frst category for which airworthiness certifcation rules


UAS Development FundingBy Region, 2014-23

Billions of Fiscal 2014 U.S. Dollars

Middle East 6.59%

$1.9

U.S. 38.36%

$11

Latin America 1.34%

$0.38 Western Europe 18.14%

$5.2

Eastern Europe 8.72%

$2.5

Asia 26.85%

$7.7



Total Value: $28.68 Billion

UAS Market Production Shares2014-23

Values in Billions of Fiscal 2014 U.S. Dollars

Man-Portable

$1.33.6%

Tactical UAVs

$8.6 24.1%

UCAVs

$1.74.8%

VTOL UAVs

$3.08.4%

HALE

$7.3 20.5%

MALE

$13.7 38.5%

Total Value: $35.6 BillionSource: Forecast International

All percentages and numbers rounded.

will be available. Law enforcement and precision agriculture will be the major initial markets.

Europe is ahead of the U.S. in civil UAS, with almost 1,000 in use, because individual nations can approve op-erations of systems weighing less than 330 lb. These rules are being harmo-nized and the European Aviation Safety Agency is developing regulations for UAS above 330 lb., to enable civil air-space integration beginning in 2016. c

Aviation Week’s

Military Fleet and MRO Forecast

Accurately Plan & Strategize for the FutureAviation Week’s 2014 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast is the industry’s

leading strategic planning tool.

In addition to tracking the number of deliveries and retirements over the10-year forecast period, use the 2014 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast to getan in-depth understanding of whatÕs to come, including:

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The bigger manufacturers were preoccupied with the grow-ing light-twin market, and happy to leave Frank Robinson’s hugely successful piston-engined R22 and R44 to dominate the general-avi-ation market. They had virtually rejected their light singles—many with designs roots in the 1960s and 70s—and all but starved them of investment.

But the R66’s success has gal-vanized the industry’s key players to take another look at the single-turbine market, which could see a new lease on life in 2014, with no less than three new light helicop-ters emerging.

Bell’s Short Light Single (SLS) is perhaps the most important. The Model 206 JetRanger was a revolu-tion when it emerged in the 1960s, and helped shape Bell’s success

into the 1980s. Leading the trend toward dual-use helicop-ters, the 206 was militarized as the OH-58 Kiowa. Few civil helicopters have matched the JetRanger’s success, but Bell ended production in 2010 to concentrate on other products.

With the SLS, Bell is trying to re-capture the market by mixing an established dynamic system from the 206L4 Long-Ranger with modern technology—a digitally controlled Tur-bomeca engine and Garmin integrated avionics. With a mix of composite and aluminum airframe components, the battle will be achieving a competitive price. Bell CEO John Garri-son wants the SLS priced between the R66, at $835,000, and Eurocopter’s EC120, at around $1.5 million. Plans to certify the aircraft fi rst in Canada may hint at production there,

particularly as the U.S. company steps up work on the larger Model 525 and the V-280 tiltrotor on of er to the U.S. Army.

Another newcomer will be a 2.5-ton helicopter jointly developed by AgustaWestland and Russian Heli-copters, which they plan to certify by the end of 2016. AgustaWest-land’s current turbine single—the AW119 Koala—has sold only in lim-ited numbers. But the company is banking on success with Russian and CIS operators that have had to buy Western light helicopters be-cause their domestic supplier has no equivalent product. Few details are known about the aircraft, al-though a mock-up is understood to exist; hints suggest some design ele-ments come from the Italian side of the partnership.

Marenco Swisshelicopter’s SKYe SH09 single-engine helicopter

AEROSPACE SYSTEMS

72 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 30, 2013/JANUARY 6, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

Tony Osborne London

Lightweight Revolution New light singles could change

the commercial rotorcraft market

The entry and rapid success of the Robinson R66 in the light turbine helicopter market has sent shock waves through the industry.

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video review of commercial rotorcraft developments in 2013, or go to AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014

Civil RotorcraftUnit Production


AgustaWestland20.7% 1,019

MD Helicopters2.1% 102

Robinson10.5% 517

Bell Helicopter18.2% 895

Sikorsky4.1% 204




Eurocopter 44.4%

2,185

BELL H

ELIC

OP

TE

R C

ON

CE

PT

Bell’s surprise launch of the SLS shows that the light helicopter

market is heating up.

completes the trio. Rolled out in November, the newcomer from Switzerland is an un-likely entrant into a market dominated by the major play-ers. But Marenco is aiming not at JetRanger-sized aircraft but at the Bell 407 and Euro-copter AS350, which have en-joyed only facelifts since their launches two or more decades ago. Marenco says it has close to 50 orders, around half of them from the U.S.

Sikorsky is still deciding what to do with the light-helicopter family inherited with the pur-chase of Schweizer, which had a strong position in the training market, but appears focused on its larger civil and military he-licopters. Eurocopter is said to be working on a successor to the AS350, but has modernized its single-engine product line including the EC130 T2.

The EC120, the European manufacturer’s only real coun-ter to the R66 and SLS, is due for an update. Bell may also continue modernizing its current products, including the LongRanger. This continues to sell because of its larger cabin, but it has not yet enjoyed the same investment as the 407, now upgraded with Garmin G1000H avionics.

The Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) predicts deliveries of close to 4,500 commercial helicopters by West-ern manufacturers over the next fve years. Around 44% will be produced by Eurocopter (soon to be Airbus Helicopters),

and 20% by AgustaWestland.For oil and gas operators, 2014

will see the introduction of Eu-rope’s two new medium helicop-ters, the AgustaWestland AW189 and Eurocopter EC175. Protracted avionics certifcation and perfor-mance changes pushed the EC175’s debut back a year. This has allowed its Anglo-Italian rival to steal a march, with Bristow Group plan-ning to put the AW189 into service on the North Sea in early 2014, just ahead of the EC175.

Both types fll a niche in between the heavier Eurocopter EC225 and Sikorsky S-92 and smaller medium twins such as the AgustaWestland AW139, Eurocopter EC155 and new Sikorsky S-76D. Joining the hotly contested market will be Bell’s Model 525 Relentless, to fy in 2014, and Russian Helicopters’ Ka-62.

Eurocopter’s long-awaited X4 is expected to emerge from the shadows in 2014. To replace the AS365 Dauphin, the X4 will incorporate many technologies such as lower-noise rotor blades, fy-by-wire controls and advanced avionics. The company is also working on the X6, understood to be a replacement for the Super Puma family, while the X9 may be a light twin to replace the EC135.

AWIN, meanwhile, forecasts deliveries of 2,853 military he-licopters over the next fve years, led by Sikorsky (30.8%) and Boeing (19%). Eurocopter will take 10.8% and AgustaWest-land 9.7%, and they will share in NH Industries’ 9.7% slice of projected deliveries. c


Civil RotorcraftValue of Production



Robinson1.4% 0.4

MD Helicopters0.6% 0.2

AgustaWestland40.1%

12.4

Eurocopter34.3% 10.6

Bell Helicopter13.0% 4.0

Sikorsky10.5% 3.3

Total Five-Year Value of Production: $30.9 billion

Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network



Commercial Helicopters To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

CREW + PAX

ROTOR

DIAMETER

(FT.)

MAX.

LENGTH

(FT.)

MAX.

HEIGHT

(FT.)

GROSS WEIGHT

(LB.)

POWERPLANT (NO./

TYPE)

POWER

SPEED

(KT.)

HOVER

CEILING

(FT)

MAX.

RANGE

(NM)

AgustAWestlAnd

AW169 2 + 8/10 — — — 9,900 lb.-class 2 X P&WC PW210A 1,000 shp each 140 — —

AW189 2 + 16/18 47.9 57.5 16.6 17,600 lb.-class 2 X GE CT7-2E1 2,000 shp each 150 — —

Bell Helicopter

525 Relentless 2 + 16 54.5 — — 18,000 lb.+ 2 X GE CT7-2F1 1,800 shp each 140 kt.+ — 400 nm+

Short Light Single 1 + 4 — — — — 1 X TM Arrius 2R 504 shp 125+ 11,000 360+

eurocopter

EC145T2 1 + 9 36.1 44.7 13.1 8,047 lb 2 X TM Arriel 2E 894 shp each 145 13,415 356

EC175 2 + 16/18 49.2 59.2 17.5 15,500 lb.-class 2 X P&WC PT6C-67E 1,776 shp each 150 kt. — 680

russiAn Helicopters

Ka-62 1 + 9-13 45.2 51.2 15.1 14,330 2 X TM Ardiden 3G 1,752 shp each 165 10,800 395

sikorsky AircrAft

S-76D 2 + 12 44 52.5 14.4 11,700 2 X P&WC PW210S 1,050 shp each 155 9,700 441

Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specifcations on in-production and under-development commercial

and military rotary-wing aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs


Bell V-280 Valor – 280 kt.


Defense systems

High-Speed Rotorcraft ConceptsIn 2014, the U.S. Army will select among four competing designs—two tiltrotors

and two coaxial-rotors—for two high-speed rotorcraft it plans to fy in 2017 under the Joint

Multi Role technology demonstration, a planned precursor to the Future Vertical Lift

Medium program to replace frst the Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk and later the

Boeing AH-64 Apache beginning in 2035.

AVX CCH – 230 kt.

The Tiltrotors

The Coaxial-Rotors:

Sikorsky Boeing SB-1 Defant – 230 kt.

Karem TR36D – 360 kt.

Low disk loading, high

hover efficiency Fixed engines, tilting proprotors

Unswept, high lift/drag wing

No blade fold or wing stow

Side doors, side-facing seats

Simple, light composite airframe

Variable-speed proprotors

Light, rigid,

hingeless blades

Rigid, non- gimballed hub

Tilting outboard wing extensions

Long-span, low-drag wing

Reduced-area V tail

Rigid coaxial rotors

Active vibration control

Integrated propulsion

ss

s

s

Hub and mast low-drag fairings

Articulated coaxial rotors for hover ef�ciency

Rear ramp and side doors

Stub wings of�oad rotors at higher speed

Ducted fans for propulsion, and deceleration

Variable-pitch pusher propulsor


Guy Norris Los Angeles

Throttle ForwardMassive civil orders and growing military

sustainment form focus for engine makers

The weight of expectancy falls heaviest on Pratt & Whitney and Gen-eral Electric/Snecma company CFM. An entire new generation of single-aisle airliners is depending on their PW1000G and Leap engines delivering major fuel savings, and 2014 will mark key test milestones.

As of December, Airbus and Boe-ing held orders, options and commit-ments for almost 6,400 A320neos and 737 MAXs—a requirement for 12,800 engines before a single spare has been purchased. Some 4,152 NEOs and MAXs

are on frm order, of which 880 have yet to be allocated an engine. CFM and Pratt have already collected orders for 6,540 Leap-1A/Bs and PW1100Gs, with a fur-ther 1,764 engines up for grabs.

With its exclusive position on the MAX, CFM has the lion’s share of the market with over 4,900 frm orders for Leap-1A/Bs—almost 60% of the com-bined NEO/MAX orderbook. Including China’s Comac C919, for which CFM is the sole Western engine provider with the Leap-1C, total frm orders stand at 5,830. Pratt, with around 50% of the

NEO market, is thought to have firm orders for 1,630 PW1100Gs. But includ-ing PW1000G geared-turbofan variants for the Bombardier CSeries, Embraer E-Jet E2, Irkut MC-21 and Mitsubishi MRJ, the order and option tally stands at more than 4,800 engines.

CFM is ramping up tests of the Air-bus, Boeing and Comac engines, and by the end of 2014 expects to have 20 Leap-1A, -1B and -1C engines on test. These include initial A320neo and C919 engines for fight testing on GE’s 747 testbeds, as well as the frst -1B for the 737 MAX. CFM also continues to break production records for the exist-ing CFM56 family, in 2013 delivering the 8,500th engine for Airbus, 10,000th for Boeing and 25,000th overall. Pro-duction passed 1,500 engines a year in 2013, putting CFM on track for 1,700 a year by 2020, when both Leap-1s and CFM56s will be produced.

The frst PW1100Gs are set for deliv-

With several engines due to make their frst test

runs or fights, and others ramping up production,

manufacturers face a pivotal 2014 as the boom contin-

ues in the civil aircraft market.

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video review of commercial and business aviation propulsion developments in 2013,

or go to AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014

AerospAce systems

For more information including tickets and sponsorship

please visit www.aviationweek.com/events/laureates

or call +1.561.862.0005.

ery to Airbus in the second quarter of 2014, with the Pratt-powered A320neo scheduled to fy in October. While its single-aisle revival strategy hinges on maintaining at least a 50% share of the A320 market, in place of the Interna-tional Aero Engines V2500 which the PW1100G replaces, Pratt is busy de-veloping the other PW1000G variants.

Leading the pack is the PW1500G, now fying on the CSeries. Flight-test delays point to early 2015 as a likely service-entry date from the initial CS100 variant, barely months ahead of the PW1100G-powered NEO in Octo-ber 2015, while the delayed PW1200G-powered MRJ and PW1400G-equipped MC-21 are to follow in 2017. The newest PW1700G and PW1900G variants are to enter service on the E-Jet E2 series from 2018 onward.

Rolls-Royce is continuing its strategic withdrawal from the mid-thrust market, with Pratt in October assuming full leadership of the V2500 under the buy-out plan fnal-ized in 2012. The U.K. manu-facturer, with Pratt parent company United Technolo-gies, also scrapped the plan to form a new mid-size en-gine joint venture, hatched in the wake of Rolls’ decision to sell its share in IAE.

No reason was given, but industry watchers were hardly surprised. De-spite Rolls saying it “remains fully committed to this important market segment,” the decision to withdraw from IAE and failed teaming means Rolls has effectively ceded the mid-thrust market to CFM and Pratt. Future opportunities will almost cer-tainly have to wait for A320neo and 737 MAX replacements late next decade.

Rolls’ withdrawal from the mid-thrust market follows its strategic decision to focus on the higher-value, smaller-volume widebody engine business. The company had hoped to broaden its share of the twin-aisle mar-ket, but with Boeing’s decision in 2013 to go sole-source with General Electric on its 777X, the high-thrust market is becoming polarized between Airbus-Rolls and Boeing-GE partnerships. In-siders say Boeing’s 777X engine deci-sion was infuenced by several factors, including the fnancial support GE put behind its GE9X sole-source bid, con-cern over the development timeline for Rolls’ proposed RB.3025, and worries

the new engine could be ofered later as the basis of a follow-on Trent XWB to power a stretched A350-1000 to compete with the 777X.

Rolls continues to harbor ambi-tions for its RB.3025 concept, as well as a follow-on study engine designated the RB.3039. Both are higher-bypass, higher-pressure-ratio designs which, at this stage, have a greater chance of powering an Airbus than a Boeing. The studies may result in a demonstrator by 2020, says Rolls, which acknowl-edges this could provide the basis for a next-generation Trent for service entry around 2025.

Nearer term, Rolls is studying how to break into the valuable Emirates Air-bus A380 franchise now held exclusive-ly by the GE-Pratt Engine Alliance with the GP7200. The airline wants a 10%

fuel-burn improvement with at least some of the latest batch of 50 A380s ordered in November. Engine Alliance options range from software changes to an all-new engine. Rolls is evaluat-ing options ranging from scaled “light” derivatives of the Trent XWB, through adaptation of the Trent 1000 TEN in development for the Boeing 787-10, to designs based on the RB.3025.

Rolls’ immediate focus is on support-ing fight tests of the latest Trent 1000 Package C standard on the 787-9, kicking of development on the Trent 1000 TEN for the 787-10 and ramping up work on the Trent XWB-97 for the A350-1000. The TEN is to run in the frst quarter of 2014 and incorporates design fea-tures from the Trent XWB powering the A350 and the European NEWAC technology demonstrator. With the Trent XWB-84-powered A350-900 on track for service entry in mid-2014, the focus is shifting to testing of the more-powerful variant. Thrust of the XWB-97 has increased more than 15% to 97,000 lb., but within the same overall nacelle size as on the A350-800/900.

GE has transitioned GEnx-1B pro-duction to the PIP II confguration and is banking on the improved standard to maintain its market lead on the 787. Out of 1,012 aircraft on frm order as of December 2013, 463 are powered by GE and 243 by Rolls. A further 306 are publicly undecided, of which around 160 are thought to be 787-8s. Including GEnx-2Bs for the 747-8, GE planned to produce more than 200 GEnx engines in 2013, rising to 300 in 2014. Both the GEnx-1B PIP II and upgraded -2B PIP were to enter service by the end of 2013, and on the 787-9 later in 2014.

Buoyed by results of the frst tests in 2013 of the advanced compressor for the GE9X, GE says it is on track to meet the higher thrust demands of Boeing’s 777X while maintaining the original fuel-burn reduction targets over the GE90 on the current 777. The company will complete a series of tech-nology-maturation programs that will wrap up with a core-engine test in mid-

2015 before the GE9X development program begins, with the frst engine to test in 2016. The GE9X is expected to fy on GE’s 747 testbed in 2017 and to be certifcated at around 105,000-lb.-thrust in 2018. Boeing’s plan calls for initial deliveries of the 777-9X in 2020 and the smaller 777-8X in 2022.

In the military engine market, re-duced defense budgets and a trend favoring sustainment over procure-ment have become facts of life. Other than the Lockheed Martin F-35, big programs that once provided the bread-and-butter business for engine makers are largely non-existent, and the shift is toward upgrades, support and emerging markets.

Yet amid the drawdowns, spending continues on advanced developments that will become pivotal to the future military propulsion business. GE and Pratt both expect to pass milestones in 2014 toward variable-cycle demonstra-tors under the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Adaptive Engine Tech-nology Development (AETD) program. GE is on track for a preliminary design review in November 2014. AETD will conclude in 2016 following adaptive-fan and core-engine testing.

AETD is aimed at post-2020 up-grades to the F-35 and next-generation


GE’s GE9X for the Boeing 777X will need more thrust than expected but deliver the same fuel-burn saving.

Lu

fth

an

sa

AerospAce systems

combat aircraft from 2030 onward. The concept aims to cut fuel burn for super-sonic fghters about 25% by introducing a “third stream” of airfow, which can be used to reduce fuel burn or boost thrust. GE completed tests of a full variable-cycle engine in late 2013, while Pratt tested its adaptive fan concept.

Pratt, meanwhile, was forced to delay a planned ramp-up in F135 production to 2016 from 2015 after a further slow-down in F-35 procurement. Compared to forecasts in 2009, Pratt will make 400 fewer F135s between 2013 and 2020. F100 deliveries continue at a low rate, but the company’s dependence on the F135 is now almost total, as 2013 saw the last F119 delivery for the F-22.

GE may be moving closer to launch-ing the F414 Enhanced Durability En-gine (EDE) for the Boeing F/A-18E/F amid growing interest from the U.S. Navy. The shrouded fan, which in-creases airfow by 10% while reducing fuel consumption by 3%, was tested late in 2013, and the upgrade could begin in 2014. Sweden plans to pro-cure 60 F414-powered Saab Gripen Es and Switzerland 22. India plans to purchase 99 F414-INS6 engines to power the HAL Tejas light fghter. F110 deliveries continue for Saudi Arabia’s upgraded Boeing F-15SAs.

The military turboshaft market, while not recession-proof, appears poised for modest growth, with the U.S. Army set to launch its Improved Turbine Engine Program around mid-2014. GE and a Honeywell/Pratt team have been testing new 3,000-shp tur-boshafts amid signs the Army remains committed to reengining its Boeing AH-64 Apaches and Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawks in the 2020s. The GE3000 and HPW3000 are being tested under the Advanced Afordable Turbine En-gine program, which is aiming for a 35% higher power-to-weight ratio and 25% lower specifc fuel consumption than the GE T700 engine now used. Another large turboshaft, GE’s 7,500-shp GE38-1B, is to begin test fights in 2014 in the Sikorsky CH-53K heavy-lift helicopter for the U.S. Marine Corps.

Israel is to be the frst international operator of the Bell Boeing V-22 tiltro-tor, powered by Rolls-Royce’s AE 1107C, with Japan, Qatar and the UAE among other potentials. Rolls, which recently delivered the 1,500th AE 2100 turbo-prop for Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, says a WP-3D “Hurricane Hunter” of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-

ministration will be frst to get the T56 Series 3.5 enhancement package. The upgraded engine, which showed nearly a 10% fuel-burn reduction in fights on a C-130, will enter service in 2015.

In other sectors, Rolls continues to depend heavily on European collabora-tive programs for production volume. The 300th Eurojet EJ200, produced with MTU, Avio and ITP for the Euro-fghter Typhoon, was delivered in De-cember. Rolls is teamed with MTU, ITP and Snecma on the Europrop Interna-

tional TP400-D6 turboprop, production of which is increasing as Airbus A400M airliner deliveries ramp up.

Snecma is upgrading M88 engines powering the Dassault Rafale and ex-pects to bring the entire feet up to -4E standard by 2020. As of December, Das-sault was still awaiting a contract for 126 Rafales from India. And another Indian air force contract still pending is the reengining of its Jaguar strike feet with up to 270 Honeywell International Turbine Engine F125INs. c

AviationWeek.com/awst� AviAtion�Week�&�SpAce�technology/December�30,�2013/JAnuAry�6,�2014 77

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After more than a decade

of irregular warfare that has been

a driver of innovation in defense,

the focus is shifting to technologies

that can reduce costs as well as

increase capability


defense And sPACe

Top Technologies To Watch

Digital Night Vision

Graham Warwick

Steam gauges gave way to display screens in fghters begin-ning in the late 1970s, but it has taken decades for technol-ogy to enable the vision of a “big picture” cockpit, where the entire instrument panel is a customizable touchscreen interface between human and machine. Large-area liquid-crystal displays, combined with low-profle optical-wave-guide head-up displays and helmet-mounted displays, are transforming fghter cockpits. Elbit’s 11 X 19-in. display for advanced versions of the Boeing F-15 and F/A-18 and Saab JAS 39 Gripen brings iPad-like interaction to the cockpit, with double-touch control of sensor imagery, terrain graph-ics, mission information and system menus.

Big Picture Cockpit

The digital imaging revolu-tion is coming to night vi-sion. Analog goggles have transformed warfare, al-lowing operations with only starlight for illumina-tion. But a breakthrough in digital image intensifi-cation is bringing to night vision the ability to share, manipulate and store im-agery. After development challenges, Intevac Photo-nics’ electron bombarded active pixel sensor now matches the performance of analog devices and will be felded as the night-vi-sion sensor for the critical helmet-mounted display in the Lockheed Martin F-35. Now the company is developing digitally fused image-intensifcation/thermal-imaging night-vision goggles around the technology.

Proliferation of advanced jammers that can intercept and mimic radar signals rapidly and accurately is spurring development of passive targeting technologies. In 2013, Boeing and the U.S. Navy showed that two electronic-attack EA-18G Growlers and a Northrop Grumman E-2D Hawkeye, sharing emitter-intercept data via a low-latency link, could track a moving ship precisely enough to guide a missile to it, without radar. The demo used a Northrop Grumman algorithm to geolocate the target by comparing the diference in arrival times of signals at each platform. The next step is to demonstrate passive air-to-air targeting using the F/A-18E/F’s electronic support measures and infrared search-and-track sensor.

Passive Precision Targeting

Bo

ein

g

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c

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GPS-Denied Navigation

Manned/Unmanned Teaming

Variable-Cycle Engines

Now a strength, aerospace’s reliance on GPS for guidance and navigation could become a vulnerability with the growing threat of jamming and spoof-ing of the satellite signals. One answer is the development of chip-scale iner-tial measurement units (IMU) to give every device a self-contained abil-ity to navigate precisely when GPS is denied. These require microscale clocks—Symmetricom’s chip-scale atomic clock weighs just 35 grams—micromachined 3-D gyroscopes and new types of sensors. The U.S. De-fense Advanced Research Project Agency’s (Darpa) goal is to develop a 10-cu.-mm single-chip IMU with the performance of a 1,000-cu.-cm tactical inertial navigation system.

The ability to display unmanned-aircraft sensor video in helicopter cockpits has proved pivotal in two wars, and takes another step in 2014 when the U.S. Army deploys to Afghanistan new Boeing AH-64E Apaches with the ability to control its General Atomics MQ-1C Gray Eagle UAVs. Where the AH-64D has “Level 2” control of the UAV payload, the AH-64E is the frst aircraft fielded with Lockheed Martin-developed avionics al-lowing Level 4 control of the air vehicle itself via the Ku-band tac-tical common data link. Future upgrades will provide multi-band and multi-UAV control from the Apache.

Burning less fuel and keeping things cool are the drivers behind development of a new type of combat-aircraft engine that can vary its bypass-ratio between fuel-efcient subsonic loiter and high-thrust super-sonic dash. Under the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Advanced Engine Technology Development program, General Electric and Pratt & Whitney will ground-test variable-cycle engines in 2016 that use adaptive fans and a third airfow stream—outside the core and bypass duct—to vary bypass ratio and generate additional cooling air for aircraft systems. Reengining the Lockheed Martin F-35 post-2020 and powering 2030-timeframe “sixth-generation” fghters are the program’s targets.

defense And sPACe

DefenSe aDvanceD ReSeaRch PRojectS agency

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defense And sPACe

Wake-Vortex Surfng

Geese do it, so why not aircraft? The U.S. Air Force is looking at formation flying to reduce the fuel burned by its airlifter feet. Flight tests in 2013 showed a Boeing C-17 can reduce fuel burn up to 10% by fying in the wing-tip vortex of another C-17. Flying in the upward side of the rotating fow shed by the lead aircraft increases lift on the trailing aircraft’s wing, reducing thrust required. Trials showed soft-ware changes enabled the autopilot and autothrottle to maintain position 3,000-6,000 ft. behind the lead C-17 without increasing crew workload. The Air Force plans an operational demonstration over the next few years.

Disaggregated Satellites

The military is wedded to large, expen-sive satellites but talks about “disag-gregating” their capabilities to smaller, more numerous spacecraft to reduce costs. Getting small milsats off the ground is hard, however. Darpa can-celed a demo of dispersing the func-tions of a single satellite across net-

worked formation-fying smallsats, and has shelved plans to fy a constellation of 30 imaging cubesats. But, for now, the agency continues development of the Alasa air-launch system to orbit 45-kg (100-lb.) payloads for $1 million a time, and plans to demo the S-1 reus-able spaceplane to loft 1,800-kg pay-loads for $5 million a launch.

Reusable Smallsat Launcher

A bold venture to develop a commercial reusable launch system to orbit 250-kg payloads for $11 million will get its frst test in 2014, when Swiss Space Systems (S3) plans to fy a mockup suborbital shuttle. S3 hopes to begin fight tests at the end of 2017. Launched from an Airbus A300, the unmanned shuttle will deploy its payload on an expendable upper stage, then glide home. Commercial fights are scheduled to begin in 2018 with the 30-kg CleanSpace One space-debris-deorbiting satellite for Swiss university EPFL and the frst four of 28 5-kg microgravity nanosats for Swiss “exomedicine” start-up Spacepharma.

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Graham Warwick Washington and William N. Ostrove Forecast International

Launch PartyLow-cost launch provider enters a business

that is beginning a downturn

With the third Falcon 9 v1.1 launch, and second commercial mission (carry-ing Thaicom 6), planned for late Decem-ber, SpaceX could be close to meeting the U.S. Air Force requirements for cer-tifcation of the launch vehicle. At stake are 14 launches the Air Force has set aside for competitive procurement—a move intended, along with the frst-ever “block buy” of 36 core stages with ULA, to tame escalating EELV costs.

To give SpaceX a chance to demon-strate its capabilities, the Air Force has awarded the company two EELV-class missions: the Deep Space Climate Ob-servatory, to be launched by Falcon 9 in late 2014; and the Space Test Program 2 satellite on the still-to-fy Falcon Heavy in mid-2015. SpaceX is expected to be certifed to compete with ULA as early as 2015, for launches to begin in 2017.

A Boeing/Lockheed Martin joint company, ULA produces the Alta V and Delta IV launch vehicles. In a bid to bring down costs in the face of bud-get cuts and competition, the company has priced the block buy aggressively, basing pricing on the assumption it will win all 50 launches. Reliability will also be a factor, and ULA has made 77 consecutive successful fights as of the Dec. 3 Atlas launch of a National Re-

connaissance Ofce satellite.For SpaceX, gaining access to gov-

ernment business as it breaks into the commercial market is important. Launch service providers face a near-term challenge as many of the bigger commercial communications-satellite operators near the end of large-scale modernization programs. In addition, internationally, many governments are reducing satellite purchases to cut spending and balance budgets. Smaller regional players will continue to purchase new satellites, but demand

for commercial launch services will begin to decline in 2014 and continue dropping for several years. Satellite or-ders are forecast to begin rising again after bottoming out later this decade.

In anticipation of a recovery and to maintain its lead in the commer-cial market against SpaceX and other lower-cost competitors, the European Space Agency is funding an upgrade to the Ariane 5 operated by Arianspace, and beginning studies to defne the ar-chitecture of its successor, the Ariane 6. With a 2,000-kg (4,400-lb.) increase in payload capability to GTO, the Ariane 5 Midlife Evolution is expected to be op-erational by mid-2018 at a development cost of almost €1.5 billion ($2.1 billion). Planned to be in service by 2021, Ariane 6 will use a common upper stage based on the Vinci restartable cryogenic en-gine, but with solid-rocket first and second stages. With a smaller payload than Ariane 5, Ariane 6 will also be cheaper and simpler to fy.

China, the main low-cost competitor, continues to develop the Long March 5 rocket, which will more than double its mass-to-orbit capability when launches begin in 2014.

India plans a second attempt to fy its uprated Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle Mk II, with indigenous cryogen-ic upper stage, early in 2014. The frst

SPACE SYSTEMS

Successful launch of the SES-8 commercial commu-nications satellite by Space Exploration Technologies’ (SpaceX) Falcon 9 v1.1 booster on Dec. 3 could signal a seismic shift in the launch-vehicle market. Not only was the launch SpaceX’s frst for a commercial payload to a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), it was another step toward coveted certifcation of the Falcon 9 to com-pete for lucrative U.S. government launches under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program long exclusively held by United Launch Alliance (ULA).

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video review of space launch developments in 2013, or go to


SpaceX plans 13 launches in 2014, including the frst two Boeing

702SP all-electric communication satellites.

SpaceX

launch in 2010 failed when the new stage malfunctioned.

Two converted Soviet-era ballistic missiles returned to the small-satellite launch arena late in 2013, when the Rus-sian-Ukrainian Dnepr and Russian-Ger-man Rockot made successful launches, providing competition for Arianespace’s Vega. The smallsat sector is seeing in-creasing commercial demand, particu-larly for optical and radar imagery.

In the human spaceflight field, the driver for launches in the near term will be the International Space Station. Both SpaceX, with the Dragon cargo capsule, and Orbital Sciences, with its Antares booster and Cygnus capsule, are under contract to NASA for rou-tine commercial resupply missions to the ISS, supplementing cargo fights by Russian Progress, European ATV and Japanese HTV automated spacecraft.

The next step is commercial crew transport, planned to begin in 2017, and 2014 will see key tests by the three contenders: Boeing’s CST-100 capsule and Sierra Nevada Corp.’s Dream Chaser reusable spaceplane, both of which are intended to be launched

on the Atlas V; and SpaceX’s manned Dragon capsule. SpaceX plans critical launch-pad and infight abort tests of its integrated propulsion system in mid-2014. Boeing is planning for a criti-cal design review in spring 2014 and unmanned test fight in 2016. Piloted atmospheric drop tests of the Dream Chaser are planned for 2014, leading to an unpiloted orbital fight in 2016.

NASA, meanwhile, is continuing de-velopment of the Space Launch Sys-tem (SLS) heavy-lift booster and Orion multi-purpose crew vehicle for human deep-space exploration, but their schedules are highly dependent on adequate funding. For now, the initial 70-ton-capacity SLS is on track for an unmanned lunar fy-by fight in Decem-ber 2017, carrying an instrumented Orion, and a crewed test fight to lunar orbit in 2021. For the Lockheed Martin-built Orion, the major upcoming event is an engineering test fight planned for September 2014—a Delta IV launch of a protoype capsule to validate the heat shield structural modeling.

In the “new-space” arena, Virgin Galactic expects to begin commercial

suborbital passenger fights at the end of 2014 with the air-launched Space-ShipTwo. XCOR Aerospace has yet to begin fight tests of its two-seat Lynx Mk. 1, which will take of and land like a conventional aircraft, and now aims to ofer suborbital fights by early 2015. Blue Origin is continuing development of its New Shepard suborbital system, and plans unmanned orbital tests of a human capsule in 2018, on an Atlas V.

Partly funded by Microsoft co-found-er Paul Allen, Stratolaunch Systems plans to begin satellite launches in 2018 with its Orbital Sciences-developed Air-Launched Vehicle, designed to place payloads up to 6,000 kg in low Earth orbit (LEO) after release from the car-rier aircraft. Also in 2018, start-up Swiss Space Systems plans to begin operat-ing an air-launched system, based on a Dassault-designed reusable unmanned spaceplane launched from the back of an Airbus A300 to carry up to 550 lb. to LEO. c

—With Amy Butler and Frank Morring in Washington, Amy Svitak in Paris and Bradley Perrett in Beijing.


SPACE SYSTEMS

Satellite Launchers To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

LIFTOFF MASS

(LB.)

GTO PAYLOAD

(LB.)

LENGTH

(FT.)

FAIRING DIA.

(FT.)

STAGE/NO./TYPE

LAUNCH SITE

MANUFACTURER

AriAnespAce

Ariane 5 ECA 1,719,600 22,000 166 16.4 0: 2 X solid; 1/2 cryo Kourou, French Guiana EADS Astrium

chinA GreAt WAll industry

Long March 3B/E 1,011,900 12,000 185 11 0: 4 X liquid; 1/2 liquid; 4 cryo

Xichang, China CALT

indiAn spAce reseArch OrGAnizAtiOn (isrO)

GSLV 912,710 5,500 161 11.1 0: 4 X liquid; 1: solid; 2: liquid; 4: cryo

Satish Dhawan, India ISRO

internAtiOnAl lAunch services (ils)

Proton Breeze M 1,547,640 14,550 174 14.3 1-4: liquid Baikonur, Kazakhstan Krunichev

JApAn AerOspAce explOrAtiOn AGency

H-IIA 204 967,650 13,230 174 13.4 0: 4 X liquid; 1/2 cryo Tanegashima, Japan Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

seA lAunch

Zenit 3-SL 1,042,000 13,230 200 13.6 1-3: liquid equatorial sea launch Yuzhnoye

spAce explOrAtiOn technOlOGies

Falcon 9 735,000 10,000 180 17 1/2: liquid Cape Canaveral or Vandenberg, USA

SpaceX

united lAunch AlliAnce (ulA)

Atlas V 551 7,737,400 19,260 191 17.7 0: 5 solid; 1 liquid; 2 cryo

Cape Canaveral or Vandenberg, USA

ULA

Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specifcations on in-production and under-development launch vehicles


The Global Xpress constellation of Boeing 702HP satel-lites, which includes a fourth spacecraft on order to provide redundancy and additional capacity, represents a $1.6 billion investment by Inmarsat in the mobile broadband market. Satellites are a popular solution for mobile communications, such as to aircraft in fight and ships at sea. Carriers such as United Airlines, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue plan to add Wi-Fi across their entire feets of aircraft.

High-throughput satellites are a signifcant development in the industry. They can handle much larger amounts of data, at higher speeds, than traditional satellites through fre-quency reuse and spot beams. Satellites can aim beams at specifc locations, al-lowing them to use the same frequency for multiple customers and increasing the bandwidth a satellite can handle.

The Ka-band portion of the electro-magnetic spectrum is popular for high-throughput satellites. This is partly because it lends itself to spot beams, as it is narrower than bands such as Ku. Ka-band is also readily available, as it is not used for other applications. Ku-band, for example, is used for direct-to-home television broadcasting. Satellites such as EchoStar XVII and ViaSat-1 have popularized the use of Ka-band for sat-ellite broadband Internet. But the high-throughput technology can be used on satellites that operate at any frequency.

Ka-band satellites will be a primary

supplier of the bandwidth needed to provide in-air broad-band Internet connections, especially on oceanic routes, where terrestrial transmitters are not available. Beginning in 2015, Gogo in the U.S. and OnAir in Europe will provide Global Xpress services to airlines. Honeywell will produce the avionics and service the business aviation market. Boe-ing will sell civil and military Ka-band capacity to the U.S. government.

Intelsat also is eyeing the aviation market for its planned feet of EpicNG high-throughput satellites, the frst two of which—Intelsat 29e to be launched in 2015 and 33e to fol-low in 2016—will provide broadband services using Ku-band frequencies, which it argues can penetrate weather better than Ka-band. Panasonic Avionics has selected the 29e and 33e satellites for its global in-fight communications services, which include Wi-Fi, mobile phone and live television. Boeing is under contract to build fve 702MP medium-power satel-lites for Intelsat.

The growth of high-throughput communications for mo-bile computing has blurred the divide between fxed satellite service providers such as Intelsat and mobile satellite service (MSS) providers like Inmarsat. In an attempt to capture the market for mobile data, many traditionally fxed satellite ser-vice providers have tapped the MSS market. For example, satellite companies such as SES in Europe and Telesat in North America now sell capacity to the airline in-fight broad-band and shipping markets.

Although Inmarsat’s Global Xpress will provide the frst global Ka-frequency broadband services from a single op-erator, there are several regional high-throughput satellites already in service and more are planned. Launched in 2012, ViaSat-1 provides Ka-band coverage of North America and Hawaii. JetBlue and another major U.S. airline were expected to begin using ViaSat for in-fight internet and television ser-vices by the end of 2013.

At the time, the Space Systems/Loral-built ViaSat-1 was the highest-capacity communication satellite to be launched: That crown is set to be taken by ViaSat-2 when it is orbited in mid-2016. A Boeing 702HP satellite, ViaSat-2 will increase Ka-band capacity over North America and extend coverage

over Central America, the Carib-bean, the northern edge of South America and on to the primary aeronautical and maritime routes across the Atlantic.

Other regional Ka-band service providers include Abu Dhabi’s Al Yahsat, which operates two EADS Astrium/Thales Alenia Space sat-ellites covering the Middle East, Africa, Europe and South-West Asia. Eutelsat covers Europe with the Astrium-built KA-Sat. Australia’s NewSat plans to serve the Middle East, East Africa and South West Asia beginning in 2015, with the launch of the Lock-heed Martin-built Jabiru-1. Before then, NewSat’s Jabiru-2 payload is expected to be launched in 2014 onboard Malaysia’s Measat 3b geostationary satellite. Jabiru-2 will cover Australia, Papua New

SPACE SYSTEMS


Graham Warwick Washington and William N. Ostrove Forecast International

Building BandwidthCivil and military demand for

broadband communications

drives the satellite market

Growth in high-throughput communications satellite capacity continues with the Dec. 9 launch of the frst of Inmarsat’s four Global Xpress Ka-band spacecraft. By the end of 2014, when three of the new Inmarsat-5s are planned to be in orbit, Inmarsat will be the frst operator to provide global Ka-band services to fxed and mobile terminals with speeds up to 50 Mbps.

SatellitesUnit Production


Thales Alenia 25% 116

Astrium7% 33

Boeing5% 25

Lockheed Martin5% 22

*CAST 6% 27

Total Five-Year Production: 463


*Chinese Academy of Space Technology


All Others 52%

240

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Guinea, Timor Leste and the Solomon Islands.

O3b Networks, which is building a medium-Earth-orbit Ka-band constellation designed to bring broadband con-nectivity to the “other 3 billion” customers in the developing world, launched the first four of 12 Thales Alenia-built satellites in June 2013. The delayed launch of the second four is set for the frst quarter of 2014. O3b’s investors include SES and Google.

While O3b’s satellites each weigh just 700 kg (1,543 lb.), the trend has been toward larger, increasingly powerful space-craft better able to support smaller ground equipment. These satellites can handle the large number of high-power tran-sponders needed to transmit high-defnition video, broad-band Internet and other data services that are in demand. Lithium-ion batteries and gallium-arsenide solar cells are being used to increase satellite power output.

Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Space Systems/Loral (now owned by Canada’s MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates) have seen success by focusing on large satellites. In July 2013, the European Space Agency launched the Astrium-developed Alphasat, Europe’s largest-ever communications satellite. Exceeding 6,600 kg on launch, Alphasat has joined Inmarsat’s L-band mobile-communications feet. For future missions, the new Alphabus design will be able to provide up to 22 kW. of power to advanced payloads weighing up to 2,000 kg.

But the market for smaller satellites is also opening up. Asia Broadcast Satellite and Mexico’s Satmex are jointly procuring four satellites based on Boeing’s new 702SP bus, a lightweight platform that uses all-electric propulsion to re-duce launch mass and cost. Xenon-ion propulsion has been used in the past to keep satellites in their intended orbits, but not to put them into orbit after launch. This is because electric propulsion is slower than chemical thrusters, and it can take up to six months to reach orbit. The advantage is that ion propulsion does not require the large amounts of oxygen and hydrogen that are used as propellant. This can save substantial weight, reducing launch costs and in-creasing the number of transponders a satellite can carry. Boeing, meanwhile, has launched its Phantom Phoenix line of small satellite prototypes, available in three confgurations: 500-1,000 kg, 180 kg and 4-5 kg.

Operational constellations of small-er, lower-orbiting satellites are being renewed and extended. Iridium Com-munications plans to begin launching its 66-satellite Iridium Next constel-lation in 2015. Hosted-payload space

on the 800-kg Thales Alenia-built spacecraft has been fully sold, so the operator is ofering to launch third-party payloads on stand-alone satellites under the name Iridium Prime. This will take advantage of the existing satellite production line and operating infrastructure. The major hosted-payload customer for Iridium Next is Aireon, a joint venture between Iridium and Nav Canada to provide space-based tracking of aircraft in remote and oceanic airspace using automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast.

Orbcomm plans to launch 18 second-generation OG2 satel-lites, focused on the machine-to-machine communications for asset management. The delayed launches are planned for 2014 and manufacturer Sierra Nevada Corp. has options to build another 30 of the 142-kg satellites. All the OG2s will incorporate automatic identifcation system (AIS) payloads to track ships globally. ExactEarth, meanwhile, launched a ffth AIS satellite for its global vessel monitoring service in November.

The top commercial communications satellite manufac-turers include Boeing, EADS Astrium, Lockheed Martin, Orbital Sciences Corp., Space Systems/Loral and Thales

Alenia Space. In the past, Boeing and Lockheed Martin have fo-cused on government programs, but as these wind down, the satel-lite giants are reentering the com-mercial marketplace.

Meanwhile, to cut costs, mili-taries have come to rely upon the commercial sector. The U.S. Navy is supplementing UHF capacity on its UFO and MUOS constellations with capacity provided by Intelsat General, the U.K.’s Skynet service, and Italy’s Sicral. The UHF capac-ity crunch is caused partly by de-lays to the Lockheed Martin-led MUOS program, which is replac-ing the UFO feet, and because of increased demand for bandwidth from warfghters.

Hosted-payload schemes, un-der which a government pays an operator to install a government-


SPACE SYSTEMS

SatellitesValue of Production



Astrium14% $9.7

Lockheed Martin15% $10.1

All Others45%

30.9

Thales Alenia 10% $6.8Space Systems/Loral

6% $4.1

Boeing 10% $6.6

Total Five-Year Value of Production: $68.2 billionSource: Forecast International


Launched in July 2013, the 6,600-kg Alphasat is EuropeÕs largest communications satellite yet.

Eu

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developed payload on board a commercially operated sat-ellite, are another concept the military hopes will increase capabilities and reduce costs. Developing a hosted payload for a commercial satellite is much cheaper than designing, building, launching and maintaining a satellite or constella-tion. It gives the government the fexibility to deploy a single payload where it is most needed onboard a satellite already scheduled for launch. In turn, payment for hosting payloads helps commercial operators fund new satellite purchases.

But there are hurdles in the way of hosted payloads, includ-ing a lack of dedicated funding lines, a lack of standardized business or pricing models on which to base contracts, and a development process that does not coincide with a commer-cial development cycle. Hoping to resolve this, the Pentagon in August released a solicitation for an “indefnite delivery/indefnite quantity” contracting vehicle that will pre-qualify bidders and enable the U.S. Air Force to regularly use space on commercial satellites to host payloads.

Some U.S. military planners are pushing for smaller, less expensive satellites as alternatives to the current crop of large, complex and costly platforms. Known as disaggrega-tion, the concept would consist of purchasing larger num-bers of smaller, relatively less sophisticated satellites than the current feets of AEHF, MUOS and others. Networks of smaller satellites would be more resilient to attacks, and dis-aggregation could reduce costs and development times, but it requires a change in the Pentagon’s mindset.

European nations, with considerably smaller financial resources, use data-sharing agreements to maximize their space capabilities. The U.K., France and Italy are separately

developing their respective Skynet 5, Syracuse III and Si-cral military communications satellites, but have agreed to bundle their services to provide NATO with UHF and SHF communications capacity.

This approach is especially useful within the reconnais-sance sector, where having more satellites translates into greater coverage and increased refresh rates. Italy, France, and Germany have established a multilateral agreement by which they will exchange set periods of satellite tasking on each other’s reconnaissance satellites: France’s Helios 2 and Pleiades, Italy’s Cosmo-SkyMed and Germany’s SAR Lupe.

While some planners have discussed creating a single pan-European satellite architecture, several hurdles need to be overcome. European nations would need to purchase ground equipment that would be compatible with a new sys-tem. Governments continue to argue over the makeup and capabilities of such a system, and the most likely course will be for European countries to continue the current arrange-ment in which each builds smaller networks and shares capabilities.

In terms of value, the U.S. accounts for more than two-thirds of military satellite production, forecast to be worth more than $22 billion over the next decade. Over the same period, Japan will account for 7.8% of satellite purchases by value, Russia 5.7%, France 4.2% and China 4.2%. Boeing and Lockheed Martin will continue to dominate the military satel-lite market. Other major players include Mitsubishi, Astrium and Russia’s ISS Reshetnev. c

—With Amy Svitak in Paris


SPACE SYSTEMS

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If 2013 was the year of two very important first flights, 2014 will have to be an important year of

execution: Airbus has committed to delivering the frst

A350-900, Boeing will hand over the frst stretched

787-9, and the frst Bombardier CS100 is still ofcially

due for entry into service.

Airbus is facing a crucial 12 months as it enters the second half of the A350-900 fight-test program. Two aircraft, MSN1 and MSN3, are currently per-forming the tests, which Airbus says have been mostly successful so far. Fol-lowing an initial phase of handling tests, Airbus has continuously moved into the part of the campaign that is addressing a long list of items required for certif-cation. Three more aircraft are to join the fight-test program—MSN2, MSN4 and MSN5—the frst two in February and the last in May. Airbus expects the aircraft to receive its type certifcate at the end of August or in early Septem-ber, a little more than 14 months after frst fight. Qatar Airways will then take delivery of the frst aircraft in the fourth quarter.

Airbus currently holds 814 frm or-ders for the A350, the bulk of which

(549) are for the baseline A350-900. Meanwhile, Airbus is shifting engineer-ing resources to the stretched A350-1000, due to enter service in 2017. There are 186 frm orders for the -1000, which has seen a notable pick-up in demand. Airbus has pushed back entry into ser-vice of the -1000 by almost two years to allow more time for Rolls-Royce to up-grade the engines as demanded by key customers, mainly Persian Gulf carriers Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.

The future of the smallest version, the A350-800, appears to still hang in the balance. Airbus is officially com-mitted to building the aircraft—the backlog has shrunk to 79 units—but the manufacturer is now hearing from customers that it should seriously con-sider stretching it to counter the threat posed by the newly launched Boeing 777X. While Airbus is unlikely to make

Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Guy Norris Los Angeles and Bradley Perrett Beijing

Delivery TimeMajor new aircraft programs are about to reach

certifcation; others to advance in 2014a formal decision next year, 2014 will be a crucial time to prepare for that step.

Airbus is proud that its A330 has been selling so well in recent years, and in fact has outsold the 787 since its launch. But in spite of the launch of the 242-ton version that increased its range, and a regional variant optimized for shorter-haul efciency, there are in-dications that the A330 boom may not continue. From January to November 2013, Airbus sold just 48 of the type, compared to the 164 Boeing garnered for the 787.

If that trend continues, Airbus may not only face serious questions about the future of the A350-800, but may also have to take a close look at what it could do do refresh the A330 further. Some of its customers, most notably Air Asia X, have been asking for a reengined version. Since the market success of the A320neo, the concept has gained traction to the extent that Emirates now wants the A380 to be re-engined; so it is clearly an option for the A330, although Airbus has been trying to play down that idea so far.

The formal launch of the 777X at the Dubai Airshow in November marked a watershed for Boeing, which moves from a multi-year period of planning into an intense phase of program exe-cution. The new-generation long-range twin family is the fnal piece of a 12-year product development plan covering the 150- to 450-plus-seat range with four major models and nine variants.

The go-ahead for the 777X therefore

CommercialTap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video review of commercial air transport developments in 2013, or go to



The Airbus A350-900 is planned for delivery to its frst operator, Qatar

Airways, in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Air

bu

s

sets the stage for an extremely hectic 2014 for Boeing which, among other systems and airframe design deci-sions, must still choose a site where the big twin and its all-new composite wing will be assembled. The thorny is-

sue is due to be decided in the frst quarter of the year and could see a new phase of Commercial Air-planes’ strategic expansion out of Washington state.

Bids from 15 sites—including Huntsville, Ala.; Charleston, S.C.; Long Beach, Calif.; Salt Lake City, and San Antonio—were due for review around year-end. Despite November’s controversial “No” vote by the machinists’ union to Boeing’s proposals that would keep the 777X at Everett, insiders suggest Wash-ington state is still the most logical site.

Following in the footsteps of the 787-8, 787-9 and 787-10, which was launched in mid-2013, the 777-8X and -9X bridge the gap to the 747-8, partially overlapping with the larger aircraft and providing a twin-engine replacement for 747-400s. The 777X also becomes the heir apparent to the 777-300ER, Boeing’s dominant long-

haul twin, as well as its principal chal-lenger to the Airbus A350-1000. Boeing will spend most of 2014 completing the overall design and confrming selection of most key suppliers over the frst half of the year. Firm confguration will be


COMMERCIAL AIRCRAft

Commercial Aircraft to Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

PAX

WING

SPAN

(FT.)

WING

AREA (SQ.

FT.)

MAX.

LENGTH

(FT.)

MAX.

HEIGHT

(FT.)

EMPTY

WEIGHT

(LB.)

GROSS

WEIGHT

(LB.)

POWERPLANT

(NO./TYPE)

MAX.

SPEED

CRUISE

SPEED

RANGE

(NM.)

Airbus-

A320neo 150 117.4 1,313 123.3 38.6 — —2 X CFM Leap-1A or P&W PW1127G

M 0.82 M 0.783,800 est

A350-900 314 213 4,770 219.5 55.9 255,080 591,000 2 X R-R Trent XWB-83 M 0.89 M 0.85 8,100

A350-1000 369 212.5 4,770 242.5 56 — 679,000 2 X R-R Trent XWB-97 M 0.89 M 0.85 8,400

boeing

737 MAX 8 162 117.8 — 129.5 41 — 181,200 2 X CFM Leap-1B — M 0.79 3,620

787-9 250-290 197 3,500 206 56 — 553,0002 X GE GEnx-1B or R-R Trent 1000

M 0.89 M 0.858,000-8,500

787-10 300-330 197 3,500 224 56 — 553,0002 X GE GEnx-1B or R-R Trent 1000-Ten

M 0.89 M 0.85 7,000

bombArdier AerospAce

CS300 130-160 115 1,209 127 38 — 144,000 2 X P&W PW1500G — M 0.82 2,950

embrAer

E190-E2 97-114 — — 119 36 — 125,400 2 X P&W PW1900G M 0.82 — 2,800

irkut

MS-21-200 150-162 117.8 — 117.8 37.8 — 149,0002 X Aviadvigatel PD-14 or P&W PW1400G

— — 3,100

mitsubishi AircrAft

MRJ70 78 95.9 — 109.6 34.4 47,800 79,807 2 X P&W PW1217G — M 0.78 918

sukhoi civil AircrAft

Superjet 100-75 68-78 91.2 — 86.8 33.8 — 85,600 2 X PowerJet SaM146 M 0.81 M 0.87 1,800

Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specifcations on in-production and under-development

commercial aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs

Commercial AircraftUnit Production


Bombardier 3.5% 337

ATR4.8% 457

Airbus38.6%

3,693

Embraer 6% 574

All Others5.6% 535

Boeing 41.4%

3,962



Commercial AircraftValue of Production



Airbus 43.5%

$522

Embraer1.6% $18.9

Bombardier1.5% $17.8

ATR 0.8% $9.4

All Others1.4% $17.2

Total Five-Year Value of Production: $1,199 billionSource: Aviation Week Intelligence Network


Boeing51.2%

$614

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set in 2015, with detailed design follow-ing in 2016 and production beginning in 2017.

The coming year will also be pivotal in the fortunes of the 787 program, with further stabilization of the production line, continued eforts to improve reli-ability, delivery of the frst 787-9s and a stepping-up of design work on the 787-10. Measuring 224 ft. in length, the -10 will be 38 ft. longer than the original 787-8 and capable of seating up to 330 passengers, which aims it at the heart of the A330 market.

The 787 program was of to a good start in 2013, amassing 120 frm orders by December following a late boost from Etihad, which announced a contract for 30 at the Dubai Airshow. The deal,

which also marked the 1,000th order for the 787 family, sees the backlog di-vided more or less equally between the standard 787-8 and the two stretched models. Of the two extended versions the 787-9 has 396 orders, or 39% of the frm backlog, while the 787-10 has 12%.

The 787-9 certifcation campaign is scheduled to be completed in the sec-ond quarter of 2014, with delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand set for mid-year.

Meanwhile Boeing will ramp-up 737 production to 42 per month in the frst half of 2014 and begin assembly of the frst 737 MAX in 2015. Boeing currently makes 38 737s a month at its Renton, Wash., site and is setting up a new as-sembly line within the facility to pro-duce the initial MAX aircraft alongside the 737-700, -800 and -900 variants.

Boeing will spend the frst quarter of 2014 working through layouts and preparing assembly drawings, as well as performing detailed design of the re-vised aft section. Detailed design draw-ings will be released over the remainder of the year, with assembly underway in

2015 and fight tests starting in 2016. Bombardier is expected to update

the fight-test and entry-into-service schedule for the CS100 at the begin-ning of 2014. The company has publicly stated that it targets frst delivery 12 months after first flight. But many have seen that as being too ambitious and even Bombardier confrms that a review is coming. Analysts more or less agree that the aircraft will be delivered for the frst time only in 2015. Regard-less of whether the frst CS100 will ac-tually be delivered in 2014 or not, the company continues to face the massive challenge of having to establish the aircraft in the marketplace against the very aggressive competition from Airbus and, to a lesser extent, Boeing.

Bombardier lost three key CSeries campaigns in 2013—Vueling, Easyjet and Air Asia—and it urgently needs better news in 2014 if only to reassure investors. As of December, it had 182 orders; the company is targeting 300 before the delivery of the frst aircraft. Flight tests have been slow to pick up following frst fight, and a second pro-totype, FTV-2, was to join the program around the end of the year.

Facing new challengers in its region-al and small-airline market sector, Em-braer is well into the detailed design of its recently announced “E2” derivative family, and picking up a batch of fresh orders for the current E-Jet genera-tion. The frst E2 variant, the 106-seat, Pratt & Whitney PW1900G-powered E190-E2 is scheduled to enter service in 2018 with the 132-seat E195-E2 fol-lowing in 2019 and 88-seat E175-E2 in 2020. They are designed to offer 16-23% fuel-burn improvements and 15% lower maintenance costs over the cur-rent variants.

Embraer is targeting up to a 45% share of a market it estimates at 6,400

deliveries over the next 20 years, with the 175 being marketed as a hub feeder, the 190 an optimally sized “market opener” and the 195 serving E-Jet op-erators that want to upsize. Despite coming late to the party, its prospects appear bright, thanks at least in part to delays sufered by its new competitors.

Production of the current-gener-ation family is back on a more stable footing, after orders rebounded fol-lowing a painful slump. Embraer was forced to slash production by 40% after the onset of the global economic crisis in late 2008, to about eight per month. But in 2013 the company was helped by orders for more than 280 E-Jets from airlines such as Republic, United and SkyWest. Total backlog has risen to more than 240 current-generation E-Jets and more than 200 E2s.

Manufacturing of the frst prototype of the Comac C919 should be under-way by the end of 2014, if there are no

further program slippages. A second program delay following one that was not announced has left Comac target-ing late 2015 for the frst fight of the C919. The iron bird, a ground rig on which systems are tested, was due to be operational for mechanical and hydraulic systems around the end of 2013, and should be working with all systems in mid-2014.

On the current plan for fight testing, a frst delivery in 2017 is likely—or 2018 if there are more problems—compared with the original target of 2016. Indus-try executives familiar with Comac say the state agency sufers from inexperi-ence and a bureaucratic culture; it and its predecessor have been working on the ARJ21 regional jet since 2002. First delivery of the ARJ21 is due next year, after about 12 years of development.

The Mitsubishi Aircraft MRJ should make its delayed frst fight in the sec-ond quarter of 2015— again, if there are no further delays. Although the manu-facturer has made no announcement, the frst prototype should be rolled out in 2014; it is now being assembled.

This program has been shifted to the right three times by a total of more than three years, mainly because Mitsubishi Aircraft made mistakes in preparing for the MRJ’s certifcation. First delivery is due in 2017. c


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CFM Leap-1B - 15%*

*

Bombardier CSeries - 20%*

Boeing 737 MAX - 14%*

Pratt & Whitney PW1500G - 14%*

Very high bypass ratio

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s

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Very high bypass-ratio (12:1) geared turbofan engine (PW1500G)

Three-axis, full fly-by-wire, sidestick control

Electric braking (steer- and brake-by-wire + electro-mechanical actuators)

Fuel-consumption improvement over current-generation aircraft or engine

Advanced winglet with laminar flow

Fly-by-wire spoilers

High bypass-ratio/high pressure-ratio engines (Leap-1B)

Low-drag laminar flow nacelle

Enhanced engine-airframe integration

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Titanium aluminide LPT bladesCMC high-pressure

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American and US Airways will start their integration on the product side by combining frequent-fier programs and res-ervation systems, coordinating schedules and moving closer together at airports. The more difcult process of integrating marketing, IT and fnancial systems will take a lot longer, prob-ably most of the 18 months needed to obtain a single operating certifcate from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.

“When you are in the process of doing this, you are not run-ning at full efciency, and there will be bumps in the road,” says George Hamlin, head of Hamlin Transportation Consulting. “A major meltdown is a possibility, but I’m not looking for it.”

Delta Air Lines managed a relatively smooth combination when it took over Northwest Airlines in 2007 to become the world’s biggest carrier. It technically was knocked down to second place by United’s tie-up with Continental in 2010, but its head start and solid implementation record gave it a com-petitive advantage, shown in its impressive recent profts that have led its peers by a signifcant margin. Now United is beginning to stabilize, but the new American is about to take the top spot, relegating Delta to No. 3.

“Next year is about United getting their merger finally

completed and the revenue side of their house optimized, American and US Air beginning the process of completing their merger, and Delta fending of increased competition for corporate business,” says Robert Mann, an aviation consultant.

United’s merger-related troubles, after struggling to inte-grate Continental, should be cleaned up now, which means the second-biggest carrier will operate as a regular airline in 2014 instead of just fxing problems, says Michael Derchin, an analyst at CRT Capital Group.

That focus is needed as United, like Delta, now has to deal with a much bigger, and potentially much stronger, Ameri-can. American’s new CEO Doug Parker knows all too well how difcult mergers can be. US Airways’ integration of America West was a “merger from hell” that sufered from “big, big, big implementation problems,” says Adam Pilarski, at consultancy Avitas. But Parker is considered one of the most dynamic air-line CEOs. The question is whether American Airlines will be able to take on its two big competitors so soon while integrat-ing with US Airways at the same time.

“The integration of those companies—how effective a competitor will they be, how they affect the competitive landscape as the largest airline in the world—will be a big issue,” Derchin says. Mann points out that “it is kind of a moving target for corporate contracting, and that is where all

the money is. Large corporate accounts like to buy from the single biggest store, which is the largest network. So we will see stif competition to retain that.”

Delta will use 2014 to continue expanding aggressively in Seattle and California, driving speculation that it is trying to push Alaska Airlines into a combination. “United is not as well positioned yet—they are still making sure their merger works—and American and US Airways are in the process of merging, so it is a great time for Delta to try to steal the competitive march,” Hamlin says. “A good small carrier is always going to be vulnerable to the attentions of a larger unwanted one.”

But Alaska Airlines may have another option. “They have always had a close relationship with American as well as with Delta, so it will be interesting to see if they tap in more closely with American than they currently are,” Derchin says.

The top three are not the only ones distracted by manag-ing mergers. AirTran will be fully integrated into Southwest Airlines next year, which will allow the combined carrier to run at an optimal schedule for the frst time. And 2014 will be big for Southwest as it adds long-haul routes out of Dallas.

But observers see great risks for the model that was once so successful: “Southwest is morphing into a legacy carrier, and it is not obvious where they are going,” says Pilarski. “They are kind of running out of steam,” with higher costs, average capacity growth and below-average trafc gains, he says.

Derchin says he is watching to see how aggressive low-fare carriers will be next year, particularly after former Spirit Air-lines chairman William Franke’s investment company, Indigo Partners, bought Frontier Airlines from Republic Airways. Frontier will probably be remade after Spirit’s image, Mann says, “and on that basis it could make for an interesting busi-ness combination.”

Other acts to watch include JetBlue’s launch of premium service on transcontinental fights as it aims to take a piece of the higher-end leisure market, and whether privately held


Susanna Ray Seattle

Proof of ConceptRemaining U.S. legacy carriers

must live up to their promises

Now that the last of the big three merg-

ers is fnally done, the U.S. majors have to

make 2014 the year of implementation and

integration. American and US Airways,

only weeks into their new coexistence,

are at the beginning of a journey that—as

United Airlines and Continental Airlines

have found—can be extremely difcult.

AIR TRANSPORT PROFILES

American continues to take delivery of new Airbus A319s as it phases out older aircraft.

Am

er

icA

n A

irlin

es

Virgin America goes public next year.Financially, analysts expect more im-

provement in 2014 over what has been a pretty solid performance recently. Most say airline managements are prepared for potential external shocks. “If the economy holds up reasonably well, it should be a fair-ly good year,” says Hamlin. “The carriers have got their costs down.”

Derchin expects U.S. airline costs exclud-ing fuel to rise 1-2%. He says he used a “pretty high fuel price” of $3.35 a gallon for his 2014 estimates—carriers have been paying about $3—because of the risk of war breaking out in a critical oil-producing area such as Iran. Even so, he says, “airlines have been success-ful in recent years in ofsetting fuel prices through pricing and ancillary fees, so I have pretty high confdence—assuming a slow-growth economy, not a recession—that they would have the ability if they need to have fares up by a little more than what you would normally expect them to be.”

Pricing competition will be more orderly in 2014 after the mergers, says Hamlin, as the big four have turned into the big three.

For the frst time in a very long time, U.S. airlines may compete in earnest in terms of service levels as well as price. For many years, they could not afford to invest in new seats, infight entertainment systems or even aircraft. But that is now changing as airlines are looking at upgrading their cabins and, like American, are starting to replace their aging domestic feets. “Instead of fare wars, we are seeing more service wars—who can provide the best interior and in-fight service,” Derchin says. “That is a new thing.”

One key argument against the approval of the American/US Airways merger has been that in an oligopoly of three like-minded participants, the carriers have little incentive to challenge each other, leading to cozy pricing arrangements. But Pilarski argues that given Delta’s existing and American’s emerging strengths, the market may not be as stable as it seems. “The airline to watch is United, which has not been doing fantastically in fnancials,” Pilarski says. “There is always a danger if you have one party that is weaker than others, that they go into price-cutting and starting price wars.”

New equipment set to enter service is mostly replacement for aging feets, so it will have little impact on capacity, helping keep yields steady while paring fuel and maintenance costs. U.S. airlines will take delivery of 378 new jets next year, an ad-dition of 5.8% to the current active feet of 6,573 jets, according to Avitas.

Seating capacity will grow about 1-2%,

only slightly higher than recent years, Derchin projects. He expects load factors to stay around 83-84%. Delta may be the outlier as it expands along the West Coast and in Boston.

Proftability will be aided by the ancil-lary revenue that has become a signifcant source for U.S. carriers in recent years.

Innovative new fees aren’t expected to come into play in 2014, but airlines will fur-ther refne charges for services such as pre-mium seats and checked baggage. Derchin says new algorithms have given carriers the ability to analyze each route, fight and even seat to price them accordingly. His-toric consumer data allows refnements, he says, so that “on one day, for that frst row in coach on the aisle, they can charge $50 now versus only $10 a year ago.”

And those ancillary fees may be extend-ed to some lower- and mid-tier members of frequent-fier plans next year, reducing the number of fliers who have been ex-empt as carriers look to better monetize their customers, says Henry Harteveldt, a San Francisco-based analyst with Hudson Crossing. He’s also predicting that carri-ers will begin leveraging baggage inventory much the same way they do with seats, charging more for longer fights.

With the main aircraft-purchase deci-sions made for now, big buys from U.S. airlines probably aren’t on the horizon in 2014. The carriers may continue to repur-pose domestically fown planes onto inter-national routes, “where most of the money is being made,” Mann says.

Orderbooks at Boeing and Airbus are full of purchases from Asian and Middle Eastern carriers that are set to expand “tremendously,” so U.S. airlines with inter-national networks may sufer, Derchin says. Mann expects “a resolution or some kind of fre storm” soon with Middle Eastern car-riers’ access to North American airports, amid strong opposition.

Emirates’ expanding footprint is not the only competition to watch. Harteveldt is eyeing European low-fare carriers’ burgeon-ing service across the North Atlantic, which he says could pose “a serious competitive threat,” especially as fares creep up among network airlines.

That intercontinental upheaval is being magnifed by strains emerging in the ma-jor U.S. carriers’ relationships with global alliances, Harteveldt says, pointing in par-ticular to recent changes Delta and United made to mileage award agreements that have been unpopular with partner carri-ers. “There are clearly some cracks in what we thought were very solid, established re-lationships,” he says. c



Mainline Fleet Size

American United Delta

US Airways

610

340

950

690720

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and carriers’ published reports

Passengers Carried in 2012in millions


US Airways

86.3

54.2

140.5

92.4

116.4

Available Seat Miles in 2012in billions


US Airways

152.5

74.2

226.7

213.2

194.8

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The European Commission is predicting GDP of the econ-omy across the 17 countries using the euro will grow by only a modest 1.1% in 2014, and 1.7% in 2015. The unemployment rate will remain high—at around 12.2% in 2014. Although the fgure will vary country by country, it is at its highest level since the currency was launched in 1999.

European airlines are projected to post a 1.9% operating margin and a combined $3.1 billion net proft in 2014, ac-cording to the forecast of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) released in September. Only one region, Africa, is projected to record weaker results. On the bright side, a 1.9% operating margin is an improvement on a 1.3% EBIT margin that Europe’s airlines are expected to report in

2013, and the 0.7% margin realized in 2012, when European airlines on average earned a mere €1 per passenger.

However, the European airline industry is not a homogenous group and performance difers strongly by segment. Low-cost carriers (LCCs) have been reporting healthy proft margins, while Europe’s legacy carriers and regional airlines continue to struggle. This diverging performance will continue in 2014 and refects the evolving structural change of the European market. “There will be pockets of strength, such as the north and south Atlantic premium markets,” says Jonathan Sullivan, managing director for Europe and Middle East at Seabury Consulting. But “overall, at the end of 2014, conference at-tendees will express disappointment with European fnancial results, while having admiration for a select few carriers in Europe such as EasyJet, Ryanair, and Vueling.”

Virtually all of the continent’s large network airlines and the smaller fag carriers are in some form of restructuring, and “those European carriers that have bet their restructur-ing plans on a robust economy and air travel demand in 2014 and 2015 will continue to fall short of plans,” Sullivan warns. “Those few carriers that have already pushed for dramatic structural re-sizes and fgured out how to “shrink to proft-ability” within the bounds of an out-of-court restructuring will see a disproportionate upside in 2014.”

Association of European Airlines (AEA) CEO Athar Husain Khan acknowledges that Europe’s network carriers will continue to face many challenges; yet he is upbeat and expects AEA members to turn the corner in 2014. Financial results already improved in 2013 over 2012, when member airlines jointly posted an operating loss of €1.3 billion. He says: “We anticipate that 2013 results will be on the good side of breakeven in spite of the high fuel prices, the slow recovery of the European economy and the regulatory burdens.” AEA operators carried 313.9 million passengers in the frst ten months of 2013, up 1.7% on the year-ago period, and registered higher passenger growth of 2.4% during 2012.

A recent poll among members of the AEA showed that 40% of respondents perceive European Union regulations— such as the Emissions Trading Scheme —as the biggest threat to

their business, while 17% see LCCs as the biggest threat and 31% point to the three big Middle Eastern carriers, Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways.

The European Regions Airline Associa-tion (ERA) is slightly more positive in its outlook. “We do see signs on the horizon of the economic situation improving in Europe. On the basis of this, we expect to see an increase in demand and growth, albeit a small growth in 2014,” says ERA Director General Simon McNamara. He asserts that “changes in the airline busi-ness are still going to happen, with more consolidation and more airlines facing dif-fcult times.” The past year was “incred-ibly tough” for Europe’s regional airlines, McNamara notes, and “we probably will end 2013 with a 6% decline in passenger numbers.” ERA member airlines operate about 15% of scheduled fights in Europe.

Europe’s leisure carriers have increas-ingly moved to a hybrid business model in past years, “and this is likely to con-


Cathy Buyck Brussels

Uneven Recovery Europe’s airlines see a brighter

2014, despite many challenges

The financial performance of the European airline industry has been below the global average for several years and 2014 will not be any difer-ent. The eurozone economy seems to have stopped shrinking, but Europe is far from resolving its debt problems, and the weak demand environment will weigh on European carriers.


2013f

Global Airlines’ EBIT* Margins

-6

-5

-4

9%

8

7

6

5

4

3

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

201220112010200920082007

Source: Association of European Airlines research based on ICAO and IATA Financial Forecast,

updated September 2013

*EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes

Europe Lags in Airline Profitability

Asia-Pacifc

North America

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Africa

Airlines of

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tinue in 2014,” says Sylviane Lust, Director General of the International Air Carrier Association (IACA). Competition between low-cost carriers and leisure carriers/tour operators is likely to remain ferce, but IACA members keep further improving the quality and comfort of the products they ofer in order to address this, she says. “As always, our members will enforce strict cost controls. High seat load factors and high aircraft utilization will remain at the core of their busi-ness in the year ahead,” Lust adds.

Low-cost carriers will push to gain more market share on intra-European trafc in 2014 while also extending their footprint outside the EU. Ryanair intends to make use of the European Union’s open skies agreement with Israel, which comes into force in April, and it has also obtained trafc rights to Russia. Norwegian Air Shuttle, which is the frst European LCC to venture into the low-cost long-haul market, will ex-pand its long-haul as it takes delivery of a further four Boe-ing 787-8s in 2014. It launched fights from its Scandinavian bases to the U.S. and Bangkok in May, and Norwegian will begin three transatlantic routes from London Gatwick in July 2014. CEO Bjorn Kjos indi-cates that “Barcelona can be envisaged as a hub for future long-haul routes.” The Oslo-based LCC took delivery of its third 787 on Nov. 27.

LCCs now offer almost 40% of seat capacity on intra-EU routes; that is dou-ble the level of ten years ago. Three of Europe’s ten largest airlines by departing seat capacity are budget operators (Ryanair, EasyJet and Norwegian), and Ryanair is Europe’s largest airline in seat production, according to Innovata data. Ryanair put 6.2 million departing seats, or 10% of European seat capacity, into the market in November.

The last half of 2013 has seen increased convergence be-tween Europe’s short-haul carriers. Ryanair, EasyJet, Nor-wegian and Vueling are expanding their oferings to suit the short-haul business traveler, while Lufthansa Group and Air France-KLM are defning their non-hub products to more closely match their lower-cost competitors, with an unbun-dling of some of their services. The hybridization trend will likely continue in 2014, reckons Sullivan. “The LCCs will ex-pand their distribution capabilities further and continue to fnd attractive short-haul opportunities.”

Ryanair has started to channel its expansion to primary airports and is establishing bases at Rome Fiumicino and Brussels Zaventem Airport. It also applied for slots at Co-penhagen Airport, and Chief Executive Michael O’Leary says that “it is inevitable that Ryanair in the next fve years will operate at all main airports in Europe—except for the mega-hubs such as London Heathrow, Frankfurt and Paris Charles de Gaulle and Orly.” Europe’s largest LCC, which in September announced it would become more customer-

friendly, will introduce a fexible business-like fare in the frst quarter of 2014, and enter into agreements with GDS com-panies and online travel agents, including Google, as part of its strategy to target the business passenger and corporate buyers. Currently, the Ryanair website and calling center are the exclusive distribution channels for the LCC’s services.

Europe’s majors are not only losing ground to LCCs on short-haul routes, their market share and proftability on long-haul routes is also declining. AEA members grew long-haul seat capacity 22% between 2007 and 2013, according to Innovata data, whereas non-AEA members increased their long-haul seating capacity in the period by 35%.

The Persian Gulf carriers have been adding routes and frequencies at a rapid pace in recent years, and Emirates now operates to almost 30 destinations in 16 member states in the EU, plus two gateways in Switzerland. It deploys on average 16 daily fights to the U.K., including several with the Airbus A380. Europe-Australasia trafc routed via the Middle East

is growing at roughly 20% per annum, an Amadeus Air Traffic Intelligence report reveals.

“Because Qatar, Etihad and Emirates will be growing capac-ity greater than their local demand increas-es, we can expect that the major flows that they serve —Europe/Middle East to [the] Indian subcontinent/South east Asia/Aus-tralia—will remain under signifcant pric-ing pressure in 2014,” Sullivan observes.

Alitalia will be the big European story of the year, and its potential bankruptcy could represent a much-needed step in Europe’s consolida-tion. Europe is still a very fragmented market. It has some 450 airlines, compared with 190 in North America, accord-ing to data from the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG). The fve biggest airlines in Europe have a 45% market share, whereas North America’s top fve (prior to the merger of American Airlines and US Airways) accounted for nearly 70% of that market.

But Europe’s nations do not easily abandon their fag car-riers, and the Italian government will step in to save Alitalia once again. It has earmarked the state-owned postal service, Poste Italiane, to contribute €75 million ($103 million) in fresh funds. The exercise will have to be cleared by the EU com-petition authorities, and their response to Alitalia could im-pact ongoing reviews of similar cases—including Air Baltic, Estonian Air, Cyprus Air and LOT—in which governments provided public money to keep their fag airlines afoat.

Those airlines might have timing on their side. With elec-tions for the European Parliament scheduled for May, and a new College of EU Commissioners due to start in the fall, European policy-makers might be more lenient in their as-sessment of Alitalia—and other struggling carriers—to se-cure votes and safeguard jobs. c



22%

35%

‘Losing Ground’

Long-Haul to/from Europe

% Growth in Available Seats, 2007-13

Source: Innovata, June 2013 compared to June 2007

‘High Volume, Low Revenue’

Within Europe

Pass

engers

by

cabin

cla

ss

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

2013(est.)

201120092007

67

107

Premium

Economy

Source: Association of European Airlines

Structural Changes in the European Market

AEA Non-AEA

Index 2007 = 100

www.dyn-intl.com

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Below are trends from fve diferent countries or market segments that are likely to have a signifcant impact in 2014. In some markets the actions of individual airlines are ex-pected to be of greatest interest, while in others common threads emerge.

AustrAliA

The main points to watch in Australia in early 2014 will be the actions Qantas takes in its latest campaign to boost its fagging fnancial performance.

The airline has indicated some signifcant changes are be-ing considered, including some restructuring. The govern-ment’s response to the carrier’s plight also will be important, with Qantas pushing for regulatory relief that could raise foreign investment caps.

Qantas has predicted that it will post a pre-tax loss of A$300 million for the six months through Dec. 31, partly driven by the increasingly damaging battle with Virgin Aus-tralia in the domestic market.

The carrier’s response has been to announce an extensive new cost-cutting campaign and a sweeping review of parts of its business. The most notable cost-reduction measure is the planned elimination of 1,000 jobs in 2014, and the airline has indicated that some network rationalization may occur —potentially creating openings for its competitors.

Other options are also on the table, such as selling major assets. No specifcs have been revealed, but this could theo-retically include the frequent-fyer program, or some of the carrier’s interests in overseas joint ventures. It is difcult to imagine Qantas parting with its Jetstar low-cost subsidiary, as that is very much the jewel in the group’s crown.

While it appears unlikely that the government has the appetite to invest in Qantas or provide debt guarantees, lawmakers have been more receptive to the idea of loosen-ing foreign investment restrictions on Qantas. This would potentially open the door for one of its strategic partners to invest in the carrier.

Virgin Australia has already gone down this path in a ma-jor way. Its partners Air New Zealand, Etihad Airways and Singapore Airlines have all purchased substantial stakes in Virgin Australia. It is not subject to the same ownership restrictions that apply to Qantas, which are a legacy of the government’s sale of the carrier in 1992.

JApAn

The major moves in the Japanese airline industry in 2014 could come from All Nippon Airways, as the carrier considers a major widebody aircraft order and possibly further foreign investments.

ANA has confrmed that a decision could be made soon on a widebody order, although it has not yet revealed a time-table for such a move. The airline is looking for an eventual replacement for its large Boeing 777 feet, and is considering Boeing’s 777X and the Airbus A350.

The carrier operates 55 777s, including -200s, -200ERs, -300s and -300ERs. ANA wants to begin replacing its 777s around 2020, and will focus frst on the 25 that are used on international routes.

Japan Airlines made a similar decision in October 2013, when it placed a large order for Airbus A350 aircraft to be the long-term replacement for its Boeing 777s.

ANA likely will be seeking more ofshore ownership oppor-tunities in 2014. The airline has stated that making strategic investments in Asia is part of its corporate plan, and in June 2013 it established an investment management company in Singapore for that purpose.

In 2013 ANA purchased a 49% stake in Myanmar-based carrier Asian Wings Airways to help expand its international footprint. It also bought the Miami-based Pan Am Interna-tional Flight Academy, which it intends to use to help accom-modate the growing demand for pilots in Asia.

So far, its investments have been relatively modest. It would not be a surprise to see it hunt bigger game this year, and it has reportedly been in talks with some other Asian airlines.

Further development in Japan’s new low-cost carrier market will occur in 2014. Japan Airlines has established an LCC joint venture with Jetstar, while ANA has a stake in one joint venture and has recently established a wholly owned LCC as well.

While fnancial success has been more elusive than ex-

Air trAnspOrt prOFilEs


Adrian Schofeld Auckland and Bradley Perrett Beijing

More Room To GrowAsian budget airlines are

still looking at new markets

The Asia-Pacific region is so vast and diverse that it often defes defni-tion as an airline industry bloc. How-ever, some broad trends are noticeable in many markets. For example, the low-cost carrier sector is still in the rapid development phase, meaning high growth and increasing pressure for legacy carriers. At the same time, some of the major carriers are struggling with increased competition and falling demand in their home markets.

Qantas’s ferce battle with rival Virgin Australia in the domestic market is contributing to its fnancial woes.

pected for these carriers, experience in other markets shows that once the LCC genie is out of the bottle, it is unlikely to go back in.

AsiAn lCCs

One of the most important trends in Asia is the continuing push into overseas markets by the region’s rapidly growing low-cost carriers.

The major players such as AirAsia, Lion Air and Jetstar Air-ways plan to ramp up the feets and networks of the joint-ven-ture carriers they have established in strategic Asian markets. China Airlines and Singaporean budget carrier Tigerair will begin operations of Tigerair Taiwan at the end of 2014. Aside from boosting their group-wide networks, such moves will also help provide the capacity expansion needed to accommodate the several hundred narrowbody orders placed by the LCCs.

LCCs are a serious threat to legacy carriers in Southeast Asia, as the low-cost business model is particularly well suited to large population bases with quickly growing or de-veloping economies. For that reason, many of the legacies have moved to set up their own LCCs to counter the threat.

Malaysia-based AirAsia has been one of the most active in establishing ofshore joint ventures. It has spread its foot-print by helping establish—or buying stakes in—LCCs in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. It pulled out of an-other joint venture in Japan in 2013, but indicated it intends to return to this market. Regulatory approval is pending for the newest franchise, AirAsia India.

Lion Air has not been as quick as AirAsia in creating for-eign franchises, but it is catching up. It has already reached into AirAsia’s home market by installing its Malindo Air joint venture in Kuala Lumpur. In December it established Thai Lion Air, based in Bangkok. It has started with just a few Boeing 737-900ERs, but Lion has big plans for this market.

Jetstar, a subsidiary of the Qantas group, has ofshore joint ventures in Singapore, Japan and Vietnam. It is attempting to set up another in Hong Kong in partnership with China East-ern Airlines and a local investment group, but the regulatory approval process has been complicated by strong opposition from incumbent carriers, including Cathay Pacifc.

lCCs in ChinA

Chinese aviation ofcials are fnally encouraging the devel-opment of budget airlines, but the question is how fast they want them to evolve, if indeed they can evolve in the face of resistance from the established state network carriers.

In 2014, probably the first signs to look out for will be conversion of private airlines to the budget model. The Civil

Aviation Administration of China has ofcially urged them to do so. One began the process before the edict went out in July. West Air, based in Chongqing, has been chosen by its owner, Hainan Airlines, for exploration of the LCC model. Outside of mainland China, another unit, Hong Kong Express, has also been converted.

Before the end of 2014, Hainan Airlines should have some idea of whether and how it can succeed with budget airlines. If it can, it presumably will shift focus to such subsidiaries as Beijing Capital Airlines and Kunming-based Lucky Air. Tianjin Airlines could not be converted directly into a budget carrier, since it has plans for long-haul operations But the group could conceivably require it to evolve into something like Jetstar, which has long-haul widebody services, including a modest business class.

The issue is not just whether Hainan Airlines and other private airlines can execute budget operations well. The ser-vices also will need access to routes, often to the detriment of the main state-controlled carriers.

The state carriers also have been told to look at budget op-erations, presumably by setting up no-frills subsidiaries. As government-controlled entities, they are under special pres-sure to act—the national leadership wants further liberaliza-tion of the economy. But they are not nimble organizations, and they answer to a majority shareholder, a state-assets commis-sion that looks for profts rather than the industry’s evolution.

DEmAnD in ChinA

Chinese airlines found themselves with too much capacity in 2013, and had weak operating results. Business travel was par-ticularly afected. Altogether, it has looked like a simple case of the airlines and their government supervisors sufering from an unexpectedly weak economy, which can happen anywhere.

But something else is going on. Ofcials, including those working for the country’s enormous state companies, are traveling less.

The new administration of President Xi Jinping is trying to crack down on corruption and—virtually the same thing—ofcials granting lavish perquisites to themselves and each other. An ever-popular perk is the holiday masquerading as an ofcial trip. Anecdotally, much less of this is happening, but of course there are no statistics for corruption, and so it is impossible to tell how much money is staying in government bank accounts instead of going to the airlines (and top-notch hotels, opulent restaurants, and so on).

Whatever the magnitude, the efect of reduced corrupt spending is increased because the industry is used to rapid growth. In efect, the rotten portion of revenue can normally be expected to rise nicely every year, as ofcials get more money to spend. Indeed, the general impression in China has been that corruption has tended to get worse, so the diversion of public funds to unwarranted travel has probably grown faster than legitimate business in recent years.

Even justifable or almost-justifable travel by the state and its enterprises in 2013 likely has been signifcantly restrained, with ofces across the country striving to look as though they are paying attention to the top leadership.

At some point this change in ofcial behavior should sta-bilize, maybe in 2014, if it has not already done so. It could also reverse. Earlier presidents and their prime ministers have come to power unleashing a crackdown on corruption and misuse of public funds. But after a year or so, the gravy train has been back on the rails. c


A decline in business travel—including by government ofcials—has hit the Chinese airlines’ profts this year.

Ke

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Ga

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Regaining Heights2014 could be a make-or-break year

for the Indian aviation industry

With global airlines and investors with deep pockets coming together, India’s ail-ing aviation sector could fnally feel some wind beneath its wings from the start of operations by Etihad, AirAsia and Singapore Airlines (SIA), along with their Indian partners in 2014.

While Tata-SIA will launch a full- service airline, Malaysia’s AirAsia will start a low-cost carrier, again with the support of Tata.

“Since both SIA and AirAsia have strong international partners in South-east Asia, India can expect a greater out-bound emphasis in Asean countries who are already tourist-friendly. And with the Jet-Etihad deal already sealed, we will soon be able to see strong domestic-international tie-ups both east and west of India,” says Sanat Kaul, chairman at the International Foundation for Avia-tion, Aerospace & Development.

The Jet Airways-Etihad deal will bring together one of the largest airlines in India with a well-capitalized Persian Gulf carrier with global ambitions. Abu Dhabi-based Etihad will inject $600 mil-lion in equity into the Indian private carrier and help the debt-ridden airline strengthen its balance sheet and focus on feet expansion.

“This will be a game-changer for In-dian aviation, the roots of which lie in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reforms of September 2012,” says Am-ber Dubey, partner and head of Aero-space and Defense services at global consultancy KPMG.

In September 2012 the Indian Gov-ernment decided to allow international airlines to invest in Indian carriers. Its goal was to secure capital for existing

domestic airlines which were grap-pling with debt. However, in March 2013 the Foreign Investment Promo-tion Board (FIPB) ruled that foreign airline investment is not limited to ex-isting carriers.

This has resulted in AirAsia receiv-ing approval to make a 49% investment in a joint venture airline—AirAsia In-dia—with the Tata Group and Teles-tra Trading. The airline is expected to launch in the frst half of 2014.

The return of Tata Group to the avi-ation sector may boost the sagging im-age of the Indian aviation market, pav-ing the way for new investments. The Tatas have a long association with civil aviation in India. In 1932, J.R.D. Tata started Tata Airlines, later renamed Air India in 1946, and subsequently nationalized in 1953. “The development [SIA’s alliance with Tata] afrms In-dia’s reputation as a lucrative aviation market in the long run. We expect two more FDI deals with existing airlines. . . These strategic partnerships will help airlines such as GoAir and SpiceJet, currently in talks with foreign carri-ers, to have more stable cash fows. All this will bring in global best practices, greater competition, better choices for passengers and lower fares,” Dubey says.

Indian carriers are likely to see an infusion of $1.3 billion by 2015, and ma-jor international carriers, such as Qa-tar Airways and Turkish Airlines are showing interest in investing in Indian airlines, analysts note.

The year 2014 may also see the de-bate over privatizing the national carri-er Air India gathering steam. Civil Avia-

tion Minister Ajit Singh said recently he was in favor of privatizing the fag carrier, and “the government of the day will have to look at this [issue].”

Though his statement caused con-troversy, the minister reiterated his position, saying, “after the package of 320 billion rupees ($5 billion) equity in-

fusion, the government will not give any more money to Air India. It will have to fend for itself . . . I am frmly of the view that government should not be in the service sector like hotels.”

Privatization of Air India has been a long-pending correction that successive governments have shied away from, due to fears of political and union backlash.

“We expect that the new govern-ment which takes over in June 2014 may seriously consider privatizing Air India,” Dubey hopes. “There is public pressure on the government not to spend the $5 billion bailout package on Air India and instead use it to reduce the large taxes on Aviation Turbine Fuel and Maintenance Repair and Overhaul and to support growth of no-frills airports in India’s interiors.”

Though Air India signifcantly im-proved its operational and financial performance during the previous year, its business plan is still under at-tack. The carrier still sufers from low productivity, a huge interest burden, a bloated workforce, insufficient re-capitalization and regular government intervention. “If the carrier is to have any chance of success, it must be radi-cally restructured both fnancially and operationally. This will require a level of political will to take tough decisions, a feature that has been absent to date. If decisive action is postponed—as we expect—Indian taxpayers will bear the cost,” the CAPA consultancy argues.

India’s airlines could seea combined loss of about $1.6 billion in the fnancial year ended March 31, 2013, with most of this accounted for by Air India and the now-defunct Kingfsher Airlines.

Analysts expect domestic trafc in the 12 months ending March 2014 to grow by around 5-7% over the previ-ous year, and international trafc by around 9-11%. A civil aviation ministry report expects 12% average annual growth in domestic air trafc between 2012 and 2017. c


If turbulence and uncertainty best describe the last few years for the Indian commercial aviation sector, there are signs of a turnaround ahead.

Go Air is one of several Indian airlines looking for foreign equity partners.

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Qatar Airways in particular is likely to be able to make another quantum leap in its rapid development: Hamad In-ternational Airport in Doha is expected to fnally open after a series of long delays. There is enormous pressure for the facil-ity to come online, as the home carrier plans to take delivery of its frst Airbus A380 at the end of the frst quarter. That type of aircraft can hardly be handled at the existing Doha International Airport. Qatar will not only get its frst A380, it is also scheduled to receive its frst A350-900 sometime in the fall, following certifcation of the aircraft at the end of August or early September.

But the Qatar/Doha situation also clearly demonstrates one of the main factors threatening further Persian Gulf carrier growth—infrastructure constraints, in spite of massive gov-ernment support. Hamad International should have opened years ago, but a series of mishaps caused massive delays. One of the major issues was the late completion of lounges in the terminal. When everything looked like it would be fnished, authorities launched an in-debth investigation into the fre protection systems. That issue had arisen in Qatar following a devastating kindergarten fre in early 2012. The airport audit led to a seemingly never-ending list of change requirements that still has not been fully dealt with.

Qatar Airways is continuing its expansion at the old Doha airport, which does not have air bridges, requiring passen-gers to be bussed across the feld for arrivals, departures and

connections. Trafc has long outgrown the facility’s design capacity and it would certainly not be able to cope with the passengerloads associated with A380 operations.

Such problems will go away at the new airport. It will not only address the problem of how to accommodate large wide-bodies; passenger convenience will also be much improved, since most aircraft can be parked directly at air bridges.

2014 will also be a crucial year for Emirates, which has just committed to a large expansion of its A380 feet at the recent Dubai Airshow. The airline increased its orderbook for the type from 90 to 140. But only half of the additional aircraft can be handled at Dubai International Airport, even taking into account all the current and possible future plans for expan-sion. The order therefore includes an implicit commitment for Emirates to move to a new airport sooner rather than later.

Operator Dubai Airports is currently working on the latest revision of its strategic plan. Al-Makhtoum International has been operating as a cargo airport for some time and the frst passenger teminal was opened in October. Next year, when one of the two runways at Dubai International is resurfaced, more airlines will move to Al-Makhtoum, at least temporarily. But Emirates and Dubai Airports face a strategic dilemma. Given the amount of investment in the current airport and that it is ongoing, there is an economic incentive to stay at Dubai International for as long as possible.

However, the longer the move to Al-Makhtoum is delayed, the bigger the problems and needed upfront investment there will be. Emirates is already the biggest international airline in the world and indications are that it will continue to grow at its usual 15-20% annual rate for the forseeable future. The latest A380 order has clarifed the situation, to the extent that delivery schedules can be frm ten years in advance.

The amount of upfront public investment needed for a new six-runway mega-hub for 160-180 million annual passengers clearly demonstrates the commitment of Dubai’s ruling Al-Makhtoum family to continued investment in the aviation sector. For now, the only factor that could slow the growth in the region could be the challenge of logistics and space to operate those kinds of massive hubs.

Etihad’s Abu Dhabi base is also being expanded and CEO James Hogan is adamant that the planned new midfeld termi-nal—the heart of the new airport—will be ready in time, at the end of 2015. For the airport to be able to stick to its commitment, a lot of the construction work has to be done in 2014. In Etihad’s case, the challenges go beyond how to deal with its own expan-sion; they include building its system of subsidiaries and inte-grating the new European regional operation based on Swiss carrier Darwin Airlines. While the move is supposed to improve feed for long-haul services from Europe, the more signifcant aspect of the deal is that the Etihad brand will be introduced for intra-European fying for the frst time. c


Jens Flottau Frankfurt

Building for the FutureDubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha are

working on airport expansion

If the rise of the Persian Gulf

carriers has been frightening so far for

the rest of the industry, competitors

should not even look at what is going to

happen in 2014. The three big Middle

Eastern airlines will have access to

signifcantly improved infrastructure as

they continue to grow their feets.


Emirates, already the worldÕs largest Boeing 777 operator, recently ordered 150 777Xs.

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Delivering on PromisesLatin American airlines in line

for a much more proftable 2014

Like other regions, Latin America has recently seen the emergence of a few big players created by mergers. Avianca joined forces with Grupo Taca. Those two have been followed by LAN Airlines and TAM Brazil, which now form the new La-tam Airlines Group, with subsidiaries in almost every country in South America. Aeromexico and Copa Airlines are other strong players, along with Brazilian low-cost carrier Gol.

While the optimism is justifed overall, some expectations have not been met, and that gives reason for some caution. Overall GDP growth in the region has been slower than econ-omists anticipated, Deutsche Bank airline analyst Michael Linenberg warns. According to the forecasts, 2012 should have seen 3.2% growth, but it was actually only 2.9%. And 2013 GDP growth was predicted to reach 3.9% but now seems unlikely to exceed 2.7%. Still, Linenberg expects the region’s airlines to post solid returns in 2013, achieving a combined proft of around $600 million. In 2014, the industry is pro-jected to improve its fnancial performance further and have profts of around $1.1 billion.

Given strong trade links with China, Latin America is de-pendent on growth there for its own economic development. China has also experienced a slowdown recently, but Linen-berg predicts that economic activity there will pick up when the efects of the recently announced reform program begin to be felt, which will have a ripple efect on trade partners.

The Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Associa-tion (ALTA) expects air trafc to grow in the region by an av-erage of 6.9% annually over the next 10 years, compared with a global average of around 5%. That would put Latin America on about the same trafc growth trajectory as China. There are also more opportunities for local carriers to gain market share. According to Airbus’s fgures, Latin American airlines currently carry only 19% of the long-haul trafc into and out of their region. Airbus still expects that intra-regional trafc within Latin America will grow to become the largest single segment of the market. The expected increase of regional and domestic air travel likely will be driven by the fact that 59% of the 20 largest cities in Latin America are still connected to each other with less than one fight per day, as well as by economic growth and rising personal incomes.

Along with airlines in the Asia-Pacifc region, Latin Ameri-can carriers have been the most proftable as recently as 2009, but that has since changed for the worse, mainly as a result of the downturn in the Brazilian domestic market. The air transport sector in the region has also taken a dis-proportionate hit because of its strong exposure to cargo, which is particularly important for LAN. On the other hand, freight volumes have now reached a 25-month high, one of the economic indicators that Linenberg considers to be an encouraging sign for a recovery by Latin American airlines.

In Brazil the latest quarterly results of both Gol and Latam, by far the largest operators, showed “very good improvements. I believe we are at an infection point,” Linenberg argues.

LAN and TAM have made faster progress in the integra-tion of the Latam Airlines group than anticipated, TAM President Marco Antonio Bologna believes. “We have done more than imagined in the short time,” he says. LAN and TAM combined to form Latam in mid-2012.

Bologna admits that the integration is a “complex process” and that both sides are still “learning cultural topics,” but he leaves little doubt that “it was a necessary merger.” Latam re-ported much-improved results for the third quarter of 2013 in what analysts view as a clear indication that the worst is over in terms of integration; 2014 could prove to be a much better year. “I have all the confdence that Latam will move through the merger and has a lot of upside potential,” Linenberg says.

Latam CEO Enrique Cueto says “the most important as-pect is to create a team that believes in the process and that transfers that attitude downwards” in the organization. He concedes that “there are people that don’t like change.” But he also knows what must happen: “they will have to leave the company.” Aligning service levels is also a difcult part of the merger, Cueto believes. In his opinion, it will take a long time to harmonize that within the group, since brands and airline operations will remain separate. c

Latin America has been viewed by most as one of the most promising air-line markets. Impressive growth and huge steps in quality and safety have made the continent the turnaround story in the industry. And 2014 appears set to become a year of further improvement.

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Historic Achievement

Russian air transport industry will exceed Soviet-

era passenger totals for the frst time in 2014

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, trafc fell from 91 million pas-sengers to only around 20 million a few years later. It has since recovered, lately at a much accelerated pace. Russia re-mains a strongly regulated market in many aspects; even so, the market will see another attempt to establish the low-cost carrier concept soon. If suc-cessful this time, Russian airlines could develop an even broader customer base.

Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov expected domestic airlines alone to car-ry 83 million passengers in 2013. The total number of passengers—including those carried by foreign airlines—could exceed 100 million for 2013. Sokolov as-serts this is the result of government decisions in 2007 that fostered competi-tion in the local market, liberalization of domestic services and a separation of Soviet-style companies that had com-bined airport and airline businesses.

But the rapid growth in trafc con-ceals serious problems, such as the widening gap between international and domestic trafc. The share of in-ternational trafc grew to 63% in 2013, compared to 49% in 2003, and is likely to continue to dominate as more direct international fights are launched from the Russian regions. According to the Russian Association of Air Transport Operators, 75% of all domestic passen-gers take of or land in Moscow; the top 15 carriers control 86% of the market.

To foster a more balanced air traf-fic structure, the government subsi-

dizes regional routes in the Far East, Siberia, Ural, Volga and Kaliningrad regions. The transport ministry has proposed expanding such subsidies to the entire country in 2014. Another government program subsidizes leas-ing of aircraft for regional and local routes—jets up to 55 seats and turbo-props up to 72 seats.

Although Russia is not yet ready for an open skies agreement with the Eu-ropean Union, Russian authorities say they are working to liberalize existing bilateral air transport agreements. According to the transport minister, some progress was achieved for routes from Russia to Cyprus, Greece, France and Italy. But the greatest success was achieved in negotiations with some CIS countries like Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus as well as South Korea, where nearly all restrictions were lifted.

Consolidation of local carriers is also supported by the government, which believes smaller airlines are unable to provide the necessary levels of safety and fnancial stability. “Our task is to promote the competition and help air carriers become better service providers in the process. We may even have to consolidate them where neces-sary,” Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says. According to Russia’s federal air transport agency, the share of the top 5 carriers—Aerofot, Trans-aero, UTair, S7 Airlines and Rossiya is growing steadily, as they carried 62.8% of passengers in the frst 10 month of

the year compared to 62.5% a year ago.In January-October Aerofot alone

carried 17.6 million passengers (up 18% over the same period of 2012), but that also includes several smaller govern-

ment-owned carriers: St. Petersburg-based Rossiya, Donavia, Orenair, Vlad-ivostok Air and SAT Airlines. Within the group, Vladivostok Air and SAT Airlines have merged into Aurora Air-lines, which began regional service in Russia’s Far East region in November.

Aerofot plans to strike another blow at its domestic competitors with the launch of low-cost subsidiary Dobrolet in spring 2014. It will initially serve the European part of Russia; foreign desti-nations are to be added in 2016. Unlike previous failed attempts, Dobrolet’s launch is backed by the government, which has promised to create a favor-able climate, easing the restrictions on non-refundable tickets, onboard meals and luggage, and foreign pilots.

Transaero is currently the fastest- growing of Russia’s top five airlines, with trafc up 22% for January-October. However, the airline, traditionally fo-cused on long-haul international routes and operating the largest widebody feet in Russia, is shifting its priorities. For the next fve years it will focus on improving its financial performance rather than continuing rapid growth.

Transaero also concluded a strate-gic partnership with UTair that slowed down its expansion. The two carri-ers are building up their cooperation around Moscow Vnukovo Airport, try-ing to combine Utair’s vast domestic network with Transaero’s internation-al routes; 2014 will be a key year in the network integration process.

All major carriers are renewing their feets and phasing out aging Rus-sian and Western types. According to the Association of Air Transport Op-erators, since the lifting of import du-ties in 2010, Russian carriers have im-ported about 250 foreign aircraft. The total size of the Western commercial fleet in Russia exceeds 770 aircraft, which carry about 95% of total traf-fic. The next wave of fleet renewal, expected in 2014-2016, is now at risk, as it is not clear whether the duties exemption will be prolonged beyond Dec. 31, 2013. c

In an industry used to constant growth—with a few

hiccups here and there—Russia will deliver the conclu-

sion of an astonishing story in 2014: 24 years after its

previous trafc peak in 1990, the Russian air transport

industry is fnally reaching similar trafc levels.



Transaero, with a fleet of Boeing 747s and 777s, is the largest wide-body operator in Russia.

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Tom Pleasant London

Going NowhereThe global air cargo industry is in

deep trouble and will need years to

recover, if it can at all

Consumers may be buying the latest electronic goods, but they are certainly not spending as much as they were 10 years ago. That means the air cargo industry, which is being swamped with belly capacity, is being left with a lot of empty space and nothing to fll it.

Talk to air cargo experts and they will be as likely to dis-cuss the demand for iPhones as they are about aircraft fying around. That is because the industry was traditionally a key indicator of how healthy global trade was, always showing a peak in demand during the weeks leading up to Christmas.

That trend took a blow in 2007-08 with the global fnancial crisis, as shippers began to use slower but cheaper alterna-tives, such as sea, rail and truck. Ericsson, for example, has reduced its logistics spend on air from 80% of its total 10 years ago to 20%, and does not intend to increase it again.

Ram Menen is the ex-head of cargo at Emirates and led the airline to its current prominence in the air freight market. “Although there is cautious optimism, I am not convinced about the sustainability of that growth,” he says. “In my view, full recovery is still two to three years away.”

He cites the high cost of oil—which is increasing the cost of living—as a prime reason why the world’s economy is still struggling. This also puts the air cargo industry under pres-sure from the rising cost of fuel.

“People’s current optimism is born of desperation,” agrees Stan Wraight, managing partner of the Hong Kong-based consulting frm Strategic Aviation Solutions International and a long-standing expert in the industry. “In the last fve or six weeks there has defnitely been an uptick in the busi-ness, and I expect that to continue for the next two or three weeks, but I’m really worried what will happen in January.”

Wraight says one of the main reasons for concern is the sur-plus capacity in the market compared with the continuing lack of demand. This has led cargo carriers, such as Air France and AirBridgeCargo, to ground their freighters as quickly as they can. Even in Asia, which is seeing better growth than Europe, China Southern has just parked two 747s, China Airlines is also talking about parking up to eight MD-11Fs, and Air China is returning what freighters it can to Boeing.

But even this is not making a dent on capacity, which is rap-idly growing as new-generation aircraft come into operation with their large bellies. The Boeing 777-300ER, for example, has a capacity of 7,640 cu. ft., versus the 747-400ER, which has a maximum of 5,599 cu. ft. With almost 1,150 777s alone already delivered, that spells a glut of unwanted space to fll.

“Even if there was a six percent increase in demand, it still wouldn’t use all the surplus capacity that’s out there and all the rest that will be coming on board in the coming years,” says Wraight. “In 2014 and beyond, the issue isn’t just us fac-ing a lack of demand. While trafc may return—and I see us probably four years away from that—we’re never again going to see the yields we need to make this business proftable.”

“Appetite for freighters in most airline boardrooms is at an all-time low,” says Menen. “Pure freighter operators will continue to struggle.”

Clearly, something has to change for the air cargo industry to recover, but what?

“The question is,” Wraight continues, “can cargo create new markets like passenger [airlines] did? The likes of Ryanair, EasyJet and Southwest didn’t poach passengers from their competitors. They took people who had never fown before and put them on their fights by making the price right and making it easy for them to do so, all while making a proft. The only way to solve the cargo problem is to create new trafc fows in the same way the passenger people did.”

That means, he suggests, learning from travel agents, who had to evolve to survive given competition from the Internet.

“The process of shipping by air has to be simple, cheap and transparent,” says Wraight. “That’s the only way to take the cargo that has started going by sea and put it back in the air.”

One solution might be to take advantage of all of that ex-cess capacity instead of trying to cut it.

“The freighters that are being parked are very good air-planes,” Wraight notes, “and being leased at rates that are 25% what they were four years ago. You can pick up a 747-400ERF now for below $300,000 a month. As more really good airplanes like that come onto the market, it will present an interesting opportunity for someone to pick them up at a very attractive cost and start a low-cost cargo airline.” c

Better orientation is needed for the global air cargo market and the Boeing Dreamlifter, which landed at the wrong airport Nov. 21.

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Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) systems are being installed and used all over the world. It seems it is no longer a question of if, but when, it will replace radar as the main source of surveillance for ATM purposes.

Despite ADS-B’s extensive footprint, a handful of nations stand out due to the ambitious scope of their programs. Among them is the U.S., which has al-most fnished installing a vast network that will cover its entire airspace. Ice-land, meanwhile, is fnally ready to begin using an ADS-B system that will span the north Atlantic. Australia has a na-tionwide ADS-B network in place and this month implemented the frst wide-spread mandate for its use. Canada was another early adopter, and is now taking a lead role in the next major evolution of the technology.

The U.S. is continuing to make good progress with the deployment of its ADS-B network, despite the federal bud-get battles that have stalled other impor-tant initiatives. Contractor Exelis—for-merly a part of ITT—says the installation “remains on schedule and unafected by budget issues.”

An important industry/government advisory panel has stressed that ADS-B “Out”—which primarily benefts control-lers rather than pilots—should remain a priority even if the FAA’s budget is cut further.

By the end of November, 605 of the 657 required ground stations were op-erational, according to data supplied by Exelis. Surveillance data is being supplied to 176 of the 210 required FAA facilities. When completed, it

will be the largest ADS-B network by a significant margin.Exelis expected installation to be complete in the lower

48 states before Christmas, “with the exception of two or three straggler sites.” The 33 sites in the frst stage of the Alaskan deployment have been completed, and eight more will be added next summer. Sites in Hawaii and the island territories are scheduled to be fnished by early-to-mid 2014, the company says.

The FAA says it is “on track to complete full deployment by 2014.” However, it admits it had previously targeted an earlier fnish. “We initially expected the ground station network to be deployed in 2013, but encountered challenges in land ac-quisition, accessing difcult locations in mountainous areas and oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, and seasonal limita-tions due to severe weather in Alaska,” an agency spokesman says. “We expect the ground stations in those locations to be deployed by the spring.”

In addition to Exelis’s work on the infrastructure side, the FAA must incorporate the surveillance feed into its ATM systems at each facility so controllers can use it to separate trafc. And in this part of the program—which falls outside the Exelis contract—it is likely that sequestration and the government shutdown have caused timetable delays.

According to a federal website that monitors major gov-ernment IT projects, as of August the FAA had achieved initial operating capability for ADS-B trafc separation at 42 terminal facilities and eight en-route centers. The federal IT website notes that the ADS-B program ofce “is continuing to evaluate the full impacts of sequestration” and will replan its activities accordingly.

In Iceland, work has also been continuing on a new ADS-B network that will provide a surveillance corridor between European and North American airspace. The frst parts of this network will be ready for opera-tional use in 2014, air navigation service provider Isavia tells Aviation Week.

ADS-B stations have been installed in Iceland by Isavia, and Denmark’s Naviair is responsible for installing sta-tions in the Faroe Islands and in several locations in Greenland. Isavia will use surveillance data from all these sites— which have overlapping coverage—to provide high-altitude ATM services across the network.

The Iceland deployment is furthest ahead. All the ground stations have been completed, and Isavia is only awaiting technical approval from the Icelandic Civil Aviation Administration. In addi-tion, Isavia has recently installed a new Comsoft surveillance tracker that will handle both ADS-B and radar data. Site acceptance testing has been conducted, and it is expected to be operational in early 2014.

The Greenland and Faroe Islands ground stations have also been in-


Adrian Schofeld Auckland

ADS-B

AdvancesMilestones beckon as major

programs expand global coverage

The potential for satellite-based

surveillance to transform air trafc

management has been recognized for

years. Now the countries leading the

way with this technology are preparing

to show how its promise can be realized

in some of the most important airspace

on the planet.


ADS-B ground receivers can be co-located with communications towers, such as this one in Iceland.

J.L.

Lo

ng

Iain Blackhall T: +44 (0)20 7152 4495

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stalled, with site acceptance testing scheduled to occur at the end of December. Current plans assume technical ap-proval from Danish regulators in January, an Isavia spokes-man says.

While Isavia does plan to introduce ADS-B operationally in 2014, it will initially be used to diferent extents in diferent sectors, says the spokesman. It will frst be used in Iceland’s airspace, and then over the Faroe Islands. ADS-B will be an improvement over existing radar coverage in both areas. Fi-nally, it will be used to provide surveillance coverage where none exists over much of Greenland. Nav Canada already has ADS-B stations on the southern tip of Greenland, which it uses to extend its own ADS-B network.

Although most transatlantic airline trafc fies to the south of Isavia’s planned transatlantic ADS-B corridor, it will still provide surveillance coverage for some important traffic flows. In addition to the obvi-ous safety benefts of improved oceanic surveillance, it will also extend the areas where control-lers can ofer benefts such as re-duced separation and more fre-quent altitude change approvals.

Airservices Australia is con-sidered one of the true pioneers of ADS-B. It has installed a na-tionwide network of more than 60 ground stations that provides seamless coverage of all of its domestic high-altitude airspace, and some ofshore airspace. It is already using this network to pro-vide ATM services for equipped aircraft, and on Dec. 12 it took an-other major step by introducing a mandate requiring aircraft to be equipped for ADS-B when fying above fight level 290.

This mandate represents the frst time ADS-B has been required over such a large nationwide network. In this regard Australia is well ahead of the U.S., which is scheduled to intro-duce an ADS-B mandate in 2020.

With the mandate in place, Airservices controllers can maximize the operational benefts of ADS-B since more air-craft will be equipped. However, Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) has been forced to allow a tem-porary exemption from the mandate, due to the failure of certain aircraft types to meet the deadline.

If operators apply for this exemption, non-equipped air-craft will be able to fy above FL290 as long as they remain in radar airspace. Radar coverage in Australia predominantly extends in a J-shaped zone down the east and south-east coasts, where most of the major cities are located.

Airlines have largely completed their retrofts. Accord-ing to Airservices data, 95% of the airline feet that operates above FL290 was ADS-B equipped by Dec. 12. Qantas, for example, had only three of its older Boeing 737s that did not meet the deadline. These are scheduled to be retired soon, and until then Qantas will operate them in radar airspace under the exemption.

The main problem is the business jet feet, which had an equipage rate of only around 40% as of Dec. 12. In most cases this is not the operators’ fault, as manufacturers have not yet

made retroft procedures available for some aircraft types.For example, only 30% of Australia’s large feet of Cessna

business jets meets the ADS-B standard. The equipage rate is about half for Bombardier business jets, and none of the seven Embraer aircraft are retroftted yet.

The exemption will apply for two years, to give manufac-turers the chance to catch up. During this time the exemp-tion will not cause too much disruption, as the non-equipped aircraft will be confned to airspace that already has radar coverage at high altitude. The business jets are far outnum-bered by the airline feet, and are operated less—so 94% of all operations above FL290 will comply with the mandate.

Airservices is now looking ahead to the next phases of its ADS-B program. From February 2014, all newly certifed IFR aircraft must be ADS-B capable. By February 2016, all IFR operations within 500 nm. of Perth must be equipped. The fnal

mandate calls for all aircraft op-erating under IFR in any airspace to be equipped by February 2017.

The 2016-2017 deadlines will extend the ADS-B requirement to about 2,000 more aircraft, Airservices estimates. Another 15 ground stations are sched-uled to be deployed over the next three years to improve coverage at lower levels.

Another early leader in ADS-B deployment is Nav Canada. The air navigation service provider has already established an extensive network, and a growing equipage rate is increasing the benefts to controllers and airlines.

The proportion of fights han-dled by Nav Canada that have ADS-B capability has risen to 85%. “ADS-B equipage rates on

aircraft operating in Canadian airspace have been on the upward swing due to feet renewal and equipage mandates elsewhere,” Nav Canada says.

Between 2009 and 2012, Nav Canada installed ADS-B ground stations that provide coverage of four million square kilometers of airspace. First it added coverage over Hudson Bay, an area which includes major international trafc fows. Then it deployed a network over its eastern Arctic region, and in March 2012 Nav Canada extended its Atlantic oceanic coverage with four stations in Southern Greenland.

Thanks to more-efcient fight profles, ADS-B is provid-ing airlines with fuel cost savings that are “many multiples” larger than Nav Canada’s investment of less than C$25 million ($23.5 million), says the organization’s CEO John Crichton.

Now Nav Canada is looking to the next phase of this tech-nology through a partnership with Iridium Communications. Their Aireon joint venture will use a network of satellites instead of ground stations, making it ideal for providing coverage in oceanic airspace. The system is expected to be operational in 2018.

Nav Canada is also contracted as the frst customer of the joint venture, and it intends to use it to improve ATM services over the busy transatlantic routes. In this airspace alone, Nav Canada estimates Aireon could save airlines C$125 million a year through reduced fuel burn. c



A close-up view of two ADS-B antennas on an Airservices Australia communications tower.

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The tale of two markets continues,

with large business jets still selling

For the manufacturers of larg-er business jets, which have come through the recession relatively un-scathed, the new aircraft will keep the orders fowing. For the makers of lighter jets, which have been hit hard by the downturn, there will be a bump up from the backlog, but they will be looking for a solid recovery before that reserve of orders is exhausted.

Engine and equipment supplier Hon-eywell, among the industry’s most reli-able prognosticators, believes there has been a permanent reset in the business-aviation market, leading to a prefer-ence for larger aircraft at the expense of small and medium-sized jets, mainly due to fnancing issues. Normally buy-ers pay cash for larger jets, while tra-ditional asset-based credit is harder to fnd for smaller aircraft.

An example is Bombardier, which certifcated the upgraded Learjet 75 in November and hoped to fy the all-new Learjet 85 by year-end, for delivery late in 2014. The company expects the back-logs for these light and mid-size jets to give it a near-term delivery boost, but says the order pipeline remains soft, with deals taking longer to complete. Meanwhile Bombardier’s upgraded su-per mid-size Challenger 350, set to en-ter service in 2014, is selling “very well,”

it says, clearly illustrating the divide in the market.

For Cessna, whose product line is mostly light-to-mid-size jets, the need to move upmarket is paramount. The manufacturer will begin deliveries of the light Citation M2 and revamped mid-size Sovereign and high-speed Citation X in 2014, but its hopes for increased deliveries are pinned on the

larger Latitude, to fy in 2014 and en-ter service in 2015, and super-mid-size Longitude, which is scheduled to fy in 2016 and begin deliveries in 2017. Em-braer will get a boost when its all-new mid-size Legacy 500 enters service in 2014, followed in 2015 by the medium-light Legacy 450, but the Brazilian manufacturer may soon need a more competitive large-cabin ofering than its regional airliner-derived Legacy 650.

A consequence of the market shift to bigger aircraft is increased competition in the large-cabin, long-range sector. Dassault has sets it signs on compet-ing with the Bombardier Global 5000 and Gulfstream G450 with its new Falcon 5X, which is planned to enter service in 2017 with the largest cabin cross-section of any purpose-designed business jet. While Bombardier plans to revamp the Global 5000/6000 to stay competitive, Gulfstream is widely ex-pected to launch its G450 replacement, reportedly code-named P42, in 2014. To compete with Gulfstream’s top-of-the-range G650, Bombardier is developing the ultra-large-cabin/ultra-long-range Global 7000/8000 for service entry in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Meanwhile, the industry barom-eter—the quarterly shipment reports compiled by the General Aviation Man-ufacturers’ Association (GAMA)—is still trending down, mostly. Business jet deliveries over the frst nine months of 2013 fell another 2.1% over a year earlier. But Honeywell has forecast full-year de-liveries of just 600-625 jets, down 7-11% from 2012 and less than half of the peak of 1,313 aircraft shipped in 2008.

Flight activity is trending upward and used inventory downward, two key indicators of market health, although the movements are stubbornly slow. The Aviation Week Intelligence Net-work (AWIN) is forecasting a recovery in jet deliveries, to begin in 2014. AWIN is forecasting 5,315 business-jet deliver-ies over the next fve years, with Cessna ahead of Bombardier and Embraer in numbers, but Bombardier ahead of Gulf-

Business aircraft manufacturers are preparing

to deliver a wave of new products into a market still

showing no bankable signs of recovering from its pro-

longed collapse after the 2008 global economic crisis.

It is a tense moment for an industry that has tradition-

ally stimulated itself out of downturns by launching

new aircraft and upgrades.

BUSINESS AVIATION

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video review of business aviation developments in 2013, or go to


Business JetsUnit Production


Bombardier

25%

1,330

Gulfstream

16.2%

860

Dassault

8% 425

Embraer

17%

901

All Others

6.5% 343

Cessna

27.4%

1,456



With an extra-wide cabin, Dassault’s Falcon 5X will step up competition in the large business-jet sector.

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stream and Dassault in value (see charts).

Turboprop deliveries in the frst nine months of 2013 were up another 13.3%, and are already well above the 2008 peak of 535 aircraft, having bottomed out in 2010. They are being boosted by a global boom in agricultural aircraft sales. Air Tractor and Thrush Air-craft between them delivered 220 single-turboprop ag aircraft in 2012, but were not even listed by GAMA in 2008. In 2013 their ship-ments were running 13% ahead of last year’s pace. Twin turboprops have also recovered strongly, with a 42% increase in deliveries in the frst nine months of 2013.

The dollar value of shipments has not declined so precipitously, cushioned by the turboprop resurgence and the resil-ience of the high-value large business-jet market. The collapse of the low end of the market is dramatic: Almost 65% of the jets delivered by manufacturers in the frst nine months of 2013 were super

mid-size and above. Back at the indus-try’s peak in 2008, light to mid-size jets made up almost 70% of deliveries. By 2012 their share had fallen below 50%, and it declined further in 2013. Even when the market does recover, AWIN is forecasting that almost 50% of jet deliveries over the next fve years will be super midsize and above. Given their

higher prices, Honeywell says larger jets will account for more than 80% of production value in the near term.

Geographically, Honeywell’s an-nual survey of operators’ purchase expectations shows an increase of demand in North America, which remains the largest market with 61% of the 9,250 jet deliveries fore-cast from 2013-22. Sales in economi-cally distressed Europe continue to slide and, at 12%, its expected share of the market is now well below Latin America’s, which is steady at 18%. Asia-Pacific demand has declined to 5% of the total, and in the Middle East and Africa to 4% of the market.

Charter operators are doing well, and fractional ownership is recovering following consolidation of the industry. Fractionals have not taken a signifcant share of deliveries in recent years, but NetJets ordered 225 aircraft in 2012 and Directional Aviation another 85 with its purchase of Flexjet from Bombardier in 2013. This should bolster deliveries be-ginning in 2014. c


BUSINESS AVIATION

Business Jets To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

SEATS

WING

SPAN

(FT.)

LENGTH

(FT.)

HEIGHT

(FT.)

WING

AREA

(SQ. FT.)

EMPTY

WEIGHT

(LB.)

GROSS

WEIGHT

(LB.)

POWERPLANT

(NO./TYPE)

THRUST

(LB.)

MAX.

SPEED

MAX. RANGE

(NM. @

SPEED)

OPERATING

ALTITUDE

(FT.)

BomBardier aerospace

Global 7000 10-19 104.3 110.6 26.7 — 56,800 106,250 2 X GE Passport

16,500 lb. each

M 0.90 7,300 @ M 0.85

51,000

Learjet 85 8 56.7 68.1 19.9 401 23,850 36,700 2 X P&WC PW307B

6,100 lb. each

M 0.82 3,000 @ M 0.78

49,000

cessna aircraft

Citation Latitude 9 72.3 62.2 20.8 — — 28,000+ 2 X P&WC PW306D

5,700 lb. each

440 kt. 2,500 45,000

Citation Longitude 8 86 87 26 — — 55,000 2 X Snecma Silvercrest

12,500 lb. M 0.86 4,000 45,000

dassault aviation

Falcon 5X 8-12 85.9 82.5 24.5 — — 69,600 2 X Snecma Silvercrest

11,450 lb. M 0.90 5,200 @ M 0.80

51,000

emBraer

Legacy 500 8-12 66.4 67.3 22.1 — — 42,000 2 X Honeywell HTF7500E

6,540 lb. each

M 0.82 3,000 45,000

Gulfstream aerospace

G650 8-19 99.6 99.8 25.7 1,283 54,000 99,600 2 X R-R BR725A1-12

16,900 lb. each

M 0.925 7,000 @ M 0.85

51,000

Honda aircraft co. inc.

HondaJet 5/6 39.8 42.6 14.9 — — 9,200 2 X GE Honda HF120/2, 095 lb. t.

2,050 lb. each

420 kt. 1,180 43,000

Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specifcations on in-production and under-development

business jet and turboprop aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs

Business JetsValue of Production



Gulfstream

28.5%

$38.8

Dassault

12% $16.3

Cessna

11.1% $15.1

Embraer

8.4% $11.4

All Others

8.2% $11.2

Total Five-Year Value of Production: $136 billionSource: Aviation Week Intelligence Network


Bombardier

31.8%

$43.2

Commercial Technologies To Watch

Increasing safety and efficiency remain the central concerns

for technology development in civil aviation, from aerodynamic advances

to increases in cockpit and control capability

Graham Warwick

COMMERCIAL

We use them every day on our smartphones and tablets, but touchscreens will come to aircraft cockpits in a big way in 2014. Gar-min’s G5000 integrated fightdeck, with its touchscreen controllers, is entering service on Bombardier’s Learjet 75, with Cessna’s Citation Sovereign, X, Latitude and Longi-tude business jets to follow. Rock-well Collins will introduce the frst touchscreen primary fight displays in 2014, with a Pro Line Fusion up-grade for the Beechcraft King Air; and Honeywell is strongly tipped to bring resistive touchscreens to regional aircraft by 2018 with its Epic 2 avionics for Embraer’s next-generation E-Jet E2s.

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Combined Vision

The cockpit of Dassault’s new Falcon 5X business jet is a glimpse of the future—synthetic vision on the head-down displays, enhanced and synthetic vision on the head-up display (HUD). Enhanced fight vision systems—HUDs that show imagery from infrared sensors—are set to boom as new rules allow airliners to land at more runways in lower visibility. Rockwell Collins is developing a compact waveguide-optics HUD that fts in smaller cockpits and an uncooled multi-spectral sensor that sees the latest LED runway lights. The next step is to approve synthetic vision, based on 3-D terrain databases, for lower-approach visibility mimimums.

Winglet Wars

Once a style statement on business jets, drag- reducing winglets have sprouted on airliners across the world as carriers strive to reduce fuel costs. Now a new generation of winglets is enter-ing service, beginning with Airbus’s Sharklet on the A320 family, which ofers fuel savings up to 4% over the original wingtip fences. But the next big step is Aviation Partners Boeing’s Split Scimitar,

which enters service on 737NGs in 2014 and of-fers fuel savings up to 2.2%—on top of the

4-5% saved by today’s Blended Winglets. Boeing’s “dual feather” winglets on the

737 MAX will ofer a similar saving.

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Aircraft look the same these days, they say—but not for much longer, at least at the lightweight end of aviation. Electric propul-sion is giving designers the free-dom to explore some unusual configurations. Like E-Volo of Germany’s VC-200 Volocopter—a vertical-takeof-and-landing ul-tralight aircraft in which, in place of a helicopter’s rotor, there is a fxed array of 18 electrically pow-ered propellers, providing lift, flight control and redundancy. The Volocopter made its first fight, indoors and unmanned, in November. Google is reportedly backing development of another, larger electric-powered VTOL “fying car” design by Mountain View, Calif.-based Zee.Aero.

Electric Aircraft

Flow control has been around for decades as a way to improve aerody-namics and reduce drag but has never made it out of the research environ-ment. Now Boeing is set to introduce hybrid laminar flow control on the 787-9 when it enters service in 2016. The passive system in the vertical-tail leading edge sucks in air fowing over the skin to keep the smooth bound-ary layer attached. Boeing targets a

1% drag reduction. The company plans to fight-test active fow control on a 757 vertical tail in 2015, to increase rudder effectiveness on demand and to enable smaller, lower-drag tails on fu-ture aircraft.

Flow Control

Integration of unmanned aircraft into civil airspace is still a few years of, but authorized use of small UAS by public agencies, such as law enforcement, already is accelerating as approval processes are streamlined. In Europe, small UAS are being used commercially for missions such as ofshore plat-form and wind turbine inspection by operators like the U.K.’s Sky-Futures. In the U.S., the frst FAA restricted-category type certifcations of small UAS, the hand-launched AeroVironment Puma AE and long-endurance Insitu ScanEagle, allowed commercial operations to begin in the sterile Arctic air-space late in 2013 as a frst step.

Civilian UAVs

SKy-FUtURES

NASA


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Fly-by-Wire for All

Broadband Connectivity

Launch of Inmarsat’s first Global Xpress broadband mobile communica-tions satellite at the end of 2013 will set the stage for an explosion in airborne connectivity. The planned feet of In-marsat-5 Ka-band spot-beam satellites will provide data rates up to 50Mbps to aircraft globally, enabling new services for passengers, crews and operators. Gogo and OnAir will provide services to the commercial air transport mar-ket. Honeywell is building the hard-ware and will service business aviation. The future includes cloud-based apps that crews can access as required, and systems connected to ground analytics so they can be monitored and reconfg-ured in real time.

Quiet Supersonics

With U.S. government spending un-der extreme pressure, 2014 could be a make-or-break year for NASA’s hope of obtaining funds to build a low-boom supersonic demonstrator. The agency is reaching the limits of its ability to explore shaped sonic booms using wind tunnels and fghters fying spe-cial maneuvers. NASA needs a repre-sentative X-plane fight demonstrator if it is to conduct trials to determine the sonic boom level the public would fnd acceptable, and gather data to per-suade regulators to lift the ban on civil supersonic fight over land—unlocking the potential market for a high-speed business jet, and perhaps for a small airliner in the longer term.

Reducing cost is bringing fy-by-wire (FBW) to smaller and smaller aircraft, where it is combining with unmanned-systems technology to enable new capabilities. Bell’s Model 525 will be the frst civil FBW helicopter when it fies in 2014 with a BAE Systems digital fight control system. Manufacturers, meanwhile, are looking at adding automated emergency modes such as assisted recovery to autopilots in single-pilot aircraft, to help handle pilot disorientation or incapacitation. And fying-car developer Terrafugia sees advanced FBW fight control as key to future designs such as its TF-X.

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•By the end of 2014, this region’s feet should include more than 1,400 aircraft.

IndIa•Airframe heavy maintenance expenditures will amount to $54 million in 2014, with modifcations adding another $25 million.

•India’s in-service feet will increase 14%.

LatIn amerIca (IncLudIng mexIco)

•Operators in the region will spend about $1 billion on engine maintenance.

•Fleets in the region should grow 5%.

mIddLe east•Middle East operators will generate more than $500 million in both line maintenance and modifcations.

•Carriers in the region will add about 100 new aircraft.

north amerIca•Engine MRO expenditures in this region will continue to be the largest in the world, at nearly $7 billion in 2014.

•Fleets of North American airlines will grow 3%, which rep-resents the lowest percentage of all of the regions, but the absolute number of deliveries is still the third-highest in the world, behind China and Asia-Pacifc.

Western europe•MRO expenditures are driven almost equally between en-gine and line maintenance, whereas engine maintenance is the largest expense in other regions.

•Western European airline feets will increase 4%. c


Lee Ann Tegtmeier Washington

2014 MRO Market by RegionThe Aviation Week Intelligence Network

(AWIN) 2014 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast projects the global commercial MRO market value will be $51.9 billion in 2014. See highlights in an interactive map in the digital edition. Here are a few things to expect by region:

afrIca•Engine MRO expenditures are projected to be more than $800 million.

•The continent’s total feet will decrease by six aircraft.

asIa-pacIfIc•The region—excluding China and India—will generate $1 billion of spending on modifcations, about one-fourth of the global modifcation market.

•Excluding China and India, the region’s feet will increase 13%.

chIna•Chinese operators will spend $1 billion on component MRO.

•Fleet changes in China will be driven by China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines and Air China.

eastern europe (IncLudIng russIa)

•Line maintenance will be worth more than $400 million.

MAINTENANCE, REPAIR & OVERHAUL

Source: Aviation Week Commercial Fleet Database and MRO Forecast

2014 MRO Market Share by Region

tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST for more details from the

AWIN Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, or go to aviationWeek.com/mromarket2014

Indeed, the crystal-ball view of narrowbody and widebody airframe MRO in 2014 is strikingly similar to the picture in the rear-view mirror. Analysts and leading MRO providers are united in their opinions that there will not be any major shifts in the MRO landscape next year, but that current trends—in-cluding growth in the interiors market, growth in capacity and rates in Asia, and reductions in maintenance costs through better data management—will continue to evolve.

“Based on current visibility within the industry, we expect improvement in 2014 over 2013, but a signifcant bounce-back after the weaker-than-expected 2013 is not expected,” wrote Kenneth Herbert, Canaccord Genuity’s managing director, aerospace & defense equity research, in his Daily Letter of Oct. 21, 2013, highlighting the results of his Q3/13 Commercial Aerospace MRO survey. The survey results, he said, “[point] to continued caution” and suggest that “the headwinds in the market will continue to be a factor.”

One of the notable stories of 2013 was the slower-than-

expected recovery in Europe and Asia, says Herbert. “We’d like to see more out of Asia and Europe than we’ve seen this year. The big question is: How well are these markets going to bounce back next year?” Asia, he predicts, will “do fne,” while Europe likely will take until the second half of 2014 to begin turning around. “I think, fundamentally, trafc will hold up and airlines will begin to catch up on maintenance spending,” Herbert predicts.

Two major issues will continue to plague the MRO market in Europe, says David Marcontell, president at TeamSAI. First, increased carrier consolidation and a slow economy will mean excess MRO capacity in both Western and Eastern Europe next year, particularly for narrowbody maintenance. Second, the region’s labor rates, the highest in the world, are starting to come down in response to competitive pressure. As a result, “there is low-balling out there,” says Marcontell. “Companies will undercut in order to get the work and keep people on staf.”

In Asia, labor rates are moving in the opposite direction, a trend that will afect the MRO market in 2014 and beyond. As rates in Asia rise, “what used to be a very attractive labor- rate diference is rapidly evaporating,” observes Marcontell. “This is now starting to infuence decisions about whether to take planes to Asia for maintenance.”

For instance, TeamSAI data show more than 20% of North American widebody maintenance is performed in Asia. “That will start to diminish,” Marcontell predicts. “I think we’ll see that 20% fgure accelerate to a reduction in 2014.”

Herbert agrees: “We believe that the exchange rates are having an impact on the competitiveness for China, both in relation to U.S. MROs but also in relation to MROs in other Asian countries. We believe that there is signifcant capacity that will be coming on line in countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, which will become increasingly competitive at lower labor rates.”

NORTH AMERICA WIdEbOdy ExpANsIONOthers agree that rising rates in Asia are starting to create

a geographical shift in widebody maintenance that will become more pronounced in 2014. The rate increase has essentially closed the gap between Asia Pacifc region and North Ameri-can rates, which means it is not as attractive as it once was for North American operators to ferry their larger jets across the Pacifc for heavy maintenance. Rates in Asia are now “equiva-lent to or higher than” U.S. MRO rates, says Chris Jessup, se-


Heather Baldwin Phoenix

Airframe MRO OpportunitiesInfuences will be interiors, the Asian

market and better data management

The airframe MRO market—includ-ing heavy checks, line maintenance and modifcations—will be worth about $17.5 billion in 2014. This includes $9.1 billion for narrowbody aircraft and $8.4 bil-lion for the widebody feet. The general outlook, supported by these numbers, is that the MRO business will hold fairly steady next year.

MAINTENANCE, REpAIR & OVERHAUL

Evolutions in infight entertainment and the demand for connectivity will generate modifcation work in 2014 as illustrated by this Airbus A330 frst-class cabin.

Airbus

nior vice president of airframe and engineering services at AAR Corp.

Given the closing rate gap, feet forecasts predicting growing de-mand for widebody maintenance, and customers directly request-ing widebody capabilities, AAR moved quickly when the opportu-nity arose in mid-2013 to assume tenancy on a 520,000 sq. ft. main-tenance facility in Lake Charles, La. The company took over the facility in late August and began work there three weeks later. It received its permanent repair station license for the location in mid-November.

Expanding widebody MRO capacity in North America, AAR will perform check-level, heavy maintenance and modifcation services for narrow-body and widebody aircraft at the new facility. On the wide-body side, Jessup says AAR is interested in fve feet types: Airbus A300/A310 freighters (due to the higher numbers in operation in North America); the Boeing 747, 767 and 777 (due to volume and feet commonality); and the Airbus A330. The latter, says Jessup, “is a niche play. A330 popu-larity is more outside North America, but a lot of markets where they are being operated are higher-cost regions.” Conversations with international operators about AAR providing heavy maintenance services has prompted the

company’s interest in the A330.With 10 widebody slots, the

Lake Charles facility is expected to grow to at least 1 million man-hours in 12-15 months, contrib-uting materially to the expected $1.6 billion in widebody airframe MRO work in North America in 2014. Once fully operational, the expansion in widebody mainte-nance will change the balance of work at AAR as a whole. Until recently, Jessup says AAR’s air-frame heavy maintenance work has been a 90/10 narrowbody/widebody split. With the shifting trend toward widebody work, he anticipates revenue will soon be

divided closer to 75/25 in the short term, and longer term will be closer to 60/40, underscoring observers’ predictions of growth in this segment.

sTRONg INTERIORs MARkET

Aviation Week data show the biggest drivers of narrow-body airframe MRO in 2014 will be the A320 family (includ-ing the A318 through A321) and Boeing 737 (-300 through -900 series). The A320 family, including the corporate ver-sions of each jet, is expected to generate $3.5 billion in air-frame MRO. The 737 is projected to generate $3.4 billion in airframe MRO, of which just over $1 million is forecast for


Airframe MRO Market, 2014(U.S. $ millions)

Widebody Narrowbody

Africa. . . . . . . . . . $ 65.7 . . . . . $ 156.1

Asia-Pacifc . . . . . .507.9 . . . . . . . . 351

China. . . . . . . . . . . . 92.7 . . . . . . . 253.4

Eastern Europe. . . . . 90.6 . . . . . . . 286.2

India . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 . . . . . . . . . 43

Latin America. . . . . . 58.6 . . . . . . . . 267

Middle East . . . . . .251.6 . . . . . . . 164.2

North America . . . .542.9 . . . . . 1,286.6

Western Europe . . .676.7 . . . . . 1,039.4

Source: Aviation Week Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast

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C and D check work. Together, these platforms represent 75.8% of all narrowbody airframe MRO next year.

These numbers are a refection of feet size rather than any unusual maintenance requirements next year. Lufthan-sa Technik was one of many MROs that said the 737 and A320 families will comprise the lion’s share of their narrow-body MRO work due to their large feets worldwide. This trend will only continue as more than 1,100 new aircraft in these segments will be delivered in 2014, nearly 58% of anticipated narrowbody deliveries in 2014.

Narrowbody work at Timco Aviation Services, which currently comprises 70% of the company’s work, is fairly evenly balanced between 737 and A320 feets. At AAR, the 737 is the single largest revenue driver. Of the 4.8 million labor-hours performed by AAR last year, slightly more than 1 million was for 737 work. The company averages 10-12 lines year-round for the 737. For the A320, its second-highest-volume platform, AAR supports eight to 10 lines in its net-work, and the feet generates 750,000 labor-hours per year.

“We expect volume run rates on the 737 and A320 to re-main consistent going forward, if not increase,” says Jessup. “Operators are happy with the platform, so they are spending a lot of money on interiors to bring them up to today’s stan-dards. You see new Scimitar Winglets being very popular. Also new cabin IFE and Wi-Fi requirements. Average man-hours are being driven up because of these things.”

Of the 1 million labor-hours of 737 work, Jessup says about 21% was tied to cabin upgrades, IFE and winglets last year. He predicts that number will grow to 30% in 2014, as demand in those three areas continues to increase.

From a contracting perspective, Timco Aviation Services does not foresee much change in demand next year com-pared to 2013. “We aren’t seeing a big drop-of or increase. For scheduled maintenance, the outlook is pretty stable,” says Leonard Kazmerski, vice president-marketing and business development at Timco.

Where the company does foresee strong growth is in special modifcation work, including IFE installation, Wi-Fi installations and Scimitar Winglets. Interiors business, in particular, is keeping Timco busy. “A lot of people who used to fy in frst and business class are being pushed to

economy, so airlines are increasingly adding seats, IFE and other comfort features to the economy class,” says Ka-zmerski. “At the same time, airlines are seeking to drive cost out of their aircraft by reducing weight and adding as much revenue-generating capabilities as they can, such as through a premium-economy product. These kinds of programs are a huge driver behind our interiors demand. The premium-economy product is one of our best selling seats right now.”

In the past, he says, airline customers would seek short-term modifcation programs for one feet type at a time. That has changed. “Today, we are seeing demand for in-teriors programs that cross the whole feet, narrowbody and widebody. The trend started developing over the past couple years, and we see it continuing into 2014.” This is true even at the regional jet level. Timco opened its Cincin-nati base about a year ago, primarily to support regional aircraft feets such as Embraer ERJ145s and E170/190s, and Bombardier CRJ200/700/900s. Kazmerski says a big part of the work Timco is undertaking there is interiors, having just launched multiple new contracts for interiors work.

ST Aerospace, which has headed Aviation Week’s Top 10 Airframe MRO list for the past several years, is also seeing strong demand on the interiors side. It just signed a con-tract for a cabin reconfguration project for two 767-300s for an Asian carrier and was awarded an STC by the European Aviation Safety Agency for a full cabin retroft program for six A330s for an international carrier. The passenger-to-freighter (PTF) conversion market is also a robust segment for ST Aerospace. In the third quarter 2013, ST Aerospace secured new orders worth about $600 million, including contracts for 17 PTF conversions, bringing to 119 the total number of aircraft contracted with ST Aerospace for the Boeing 757-200 PTF conversion program.

Cannacord Genuity’s Herbert expects the modifcation/retroft market to rise to nearly 10% in 2014. The drivers, he says, are competitive issues; feet commonality, espe-cially among airlines that have recently merged; evolution in infight entertainment and widespread demand for infight Internet connectivity; and economics, as airlines seek to lower costs with lighter-weight interiors. This kind of modi-

Aviation Week data forecast that Boeing 737-600, -700, -800 and

–900 aircraft will generate more than $518 million in airframe MRO in 2014.

This Southwest Airlines 737–800 received its frst C check in 2012.

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fcation work typically makes up about 7-8% of the MRO market, he adds. While its growth will outpace some of the other segments, its relatively small contribution means we won’t see a big change in its contribution in a single year.

bETTER dATA LOWERINg COsTs

One other trend several experts pointed to as afecting the MRO market next year and beyond is airlines’ increas-ingly efective use of information. Their ability to rapidly collect and analyze data is helping carriers reduce main-tenance spending, particularly in the area of unscheduled maintenance. “Airlines are getting smarter about how they manage their feets,” says Herbert, noting this is a trend that will only continue to accelerate.

Airlines have collected data about the health of their feets for many years, but the ability to harness that data in ef-fcient ways and in higher volumes emerged only in about the last two years, says Linda Hapgood, program manager, Boeing airplane health management solutions. This capabil-ity is being driven by a reduction in the cost of communica-tions solutions that can deliver data from the aircraft in real time, coupled with new IT solutions that can crunch massive amounts of data at reasonable cost. Combined, these capa-bilities are helping airlines make better, faster maintenance decisions, ultimately lowering maintenance costs.

While it is impossible to know exactly how much impact this capability is having on the overall airframe MRO mar-ket, anecdotal evidence suggests it is more than a trife. In just one event, real-time data monitoring recently saved one airline about $1 million. Dave Kinney, associate techni-

cal fellow in commercial aviation at Boeing, says one of the carrier’s airplanes took of from the U.S. West Coast en route to Europe and got a low tire-pressure warning about 45 min. into the fight. By pinging the airplane every 20 min. to calculate the leak rate, the company determined that the tire would be fat by the time the aircraft reached its destination.

Although a landing in Europe would have been possible, the airline’s last three tire failures cost almost $1 million per event. The airline therefore directed the pilots to land at an airport on the East Coast, where mechanics changed the tire and the fight resumed without incident. Multiply this kind of cost-avoidance across an entire airline, and then across the industry, and the potential impact on the airframe MRO market becomes apparent.

Another area in which airlines are using feet data to re-duce costs is in parts management. Hapgood is responsible for Boeing’s Airplane Health Management service, which monitors aircraft-specifc data to watch for trends and seek problems before they happen. “One specifc example is an integrated drive generator (IDG),” she says. “That part is very expensive if it gets to the point of failure. It costs about $500,000 to replace. We can trend data from the IDG and recommend removal before it gets to failure and airlines can save by sending it to the shop for overhaul instead of having to replace it.”

As technology continues to improve, enabling faster col-lection of more data and the ability to rapidly analyze and understand it, that capability will continue to have more and more impact on maintenance spending. c

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CFM56 Leads MRO GrowthModest engine MRO market growth

predicted for coming year

According to data generated by Avi-ation Week analysts, the global value of the engine MRO market for 2014 is estimated at $20.3 billion, based on the in-service engine feet of 63,000 for that year—including 3,952 new deliv-eries. Some aviation industry analysts project slightly higher numbers for the same period.

TeamSAI predicts somewhat higher figures for the global engine repair market for 2014: “$22 billion in revenues with a 4-5% annual increase in spending over the next fve years,” says David Hygate, director-Europe for TeamSAI. “But for the fve years

“For 2014, we can assume a 3% growth rate in parts repair, which still would be within the $5 billion range,” Brown notes.

The engine OEMs, which com-manded 53% of the 8,100 total shop visits in 2013, according to Team-SAI’s Hygate, will continue to be the dominant force in the engine repair market. Of the non-OEM shops, which had 47% of the 2013 shop visits, about 30% were airline afliated, while the remaining 16-17% were independent. Hygate sees no change in those per-centages in the coming year. “The newer turbine engines being delivered to airlines tend to be locked into OEM comprehensive service contracts, which typically run 10-20 years,” he says. “As a result, the new engine product market service business will be dominated by the OEMs.”

But Hygate also predicts that OEMs will enter into more partner-ships—with independent MROs and airline shops, or through joint ven-ture agreements or licenses—over the next 10 years.

“If those shops want a piece of the repair market, particularly on the new engine products being delivered, they will have to work with the engine OEMs,” he notes. “The OEMs want to control the repair and overhaul busi-ness because there is always more

Analysts tracking the commercial aircraft turbine engine MRO market see a growth period for the indus-try from 2014 through 2023, although at a percentage rate in the low-to-mid-single digits.


beyond, the growth rate will prob-ably drop to about 2% annually. This is predicated on the (approximately) 9,000 aircraft on order over the next 10 years.”

Richard Brown, a principal at ICF SH&E in London, values the current engine MRO market at $22.4 billion (including $5 billion for engine parts repair), or 39% of the total air trans-port MRO market in 2012, which totaled $56.8 billion. Overall engine MRO spending is projected to grow at a rate of 4.2% per year through 2022, or $34 billion by 2022 in 2012 constant dollars, he says.

The CFM56-5B will be a top engine MRO contender for the next couple of years.

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proft in aftermarket services than is realized on the sale of the new product, itself. This is why it’s critical for the OEMs to control the repair market.”

Hygate adds that for airline shops and independent facilities within the OEM’s MRO network, there are also material-supply agreements in which the OEM becomes an exclusive parts supplier. “What the OEM says is, ‘if you agree to give us the exclusive right to supply parts to you, we’ll give you a deal on the [price of] the parts.’”

North America, says Hygate, is still the biggest generator of engine work, accounting for about 31% of the total (global) market, with the Asia Pacifc (including China and India) region coming in second at 29%, and Europe, in third place, at 25%. But he cautions that while North America will still be an important player in engine mainte-nance, “the focus of the MRO market is shifting to Asia,” as airlines in the Asia Pacifc region—particularly China—acquire more aircraft.

“We are predicting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% for the Asia-Pacific fleets between 2014 and 2024, which is faster than anywhere else for that period. The North American and European feets are still growing, but will slow to some extent because those feets are more mature.” For that time frame, Team-SAI puts the North American and European CAGRs at 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively.

But Richard Brown of ICF SH&E maintains that the vast majority of re-pairs will take place in North America and Europe, because this is where most of the overhauls by global value are performed. In fact, Aviation Week data for the MRO market, by region, forecasts that in 2014, the North American engine MRO market will generate nearly $7 bil-lion in sales, with the combined total for Western and Eastern Europe at almost $5 billion.

Narrowbody aircraft will ac-count for the majority of the en-gine MRO market in 2014, with an $11.4 billion market share, accord-ing to Aviation Week data.

The CFM56-5B is a leading engine MRO market opportu-nity candidate. “The CFM56-5B is probably the most operated engine in Europe, and it will be coming due for shop visits in large quantities over the next few

years,” says Paolo Lironi, executive di-rector for leasing with SGI Aviation, an Amsterdam-based consulting frm specializing in engine management. Lironi ranks the CFM56-7B and the IAE V2500 in second and third place, respectively, in the engine MRO mar-ket. “The V2500 is a more mature en-gine, and a lot of them are undergoing shop visits, already.”

Among the engines powering wide-body aircraft, the Rolls-Royce Trent 700 and General Electric CF6-80E1, reports Lironi, will fgure prominently in the widebody engine MRO market—which Aviation Week estimates will be about $8.8 billion in 2014. “A number of these engines are fying today, and there will be more because of the increased number of deliveries of the A330,” says Lironi. “They are also mature engines, and shop visits are coming due.”

The CFM56 engine family will ac-count for most of the MRO growth—globally—with a 6-7% annual growth rate over the next fve years, reports Hygate, with the GE90 family ac-counting for a 5-6% rate during the same period. “Looking toward the 2019-24 period, we will see the stron-gest growth in engine MRO coming from the Trent XWB, the GEnx and the CFM56-7B,” he says. “Currently, shop visits of the CFM 56-5B and -7B models, and the V2500 are starting to pick up, as operators of those engines tended to delay those visits over the past few years, and can no longer put them of.”

Along that line, SGI Aviation’s Lironi says that as engines age, there will be an ongoing trend by airlines to avoid shop visits in favor of exchanging their engines for those with more on-wing life remaining. “This is true now for some of the older, legacy engines such as the CFM56-3 used on the [Boeing] 737 classic models, and the CFM56-5A on the frst generation of [Airbus] A320s. It is a much cheaper alternative to sending the engines to the shop for overhaul.”

Lironi adds that for some airlines, it’s actually better to dismantle an engine and re-sell the usable compo-nents than to have it repaired. “The overhaul of a CFM56-5A, for instance, will cost about $2 million. But it would only cost the operator about $30,000 to have the engine dismantled, and while it is not large, there is a market for the components.”

Interestingly, the accelerated pace of aircraft retirements over the past

few years should have little im-pact on the engine MRO market, according to Hygate. “The retire-ments will make more engines available for lease or exchange, meaning that shop visits will take place later. This will be particu-larly true with some of the older engines, such as the CFM56-3 and CF6.”

This, he adds, also means that engines will be available for part-ing out, with many parts fnding their way into overhauled en-gines. “The engines coming of retired aircraft will be more a source of used material rather than causing a reduction in the overall MRO market. It might have the efect of slowing growth, but not to any great degree.” c



2014 Engine MRO Market

($ U.S. millions)

Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .835

Asia-Pacifc . . . . . . . . 3,476

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,628

Eastern Europe. . . . . . . .955

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .210

Latin America. . . . . . . 1,074

Middle East . . . . . . . . 1,280

North America . . . . . . 6,864

Western Europe . . . . . 3,939

Engine MRO Growth, 2014-24Compound Annual Growth Rate

China ...............................................11.6%

India ................................................10.6

Eastern Europe .................................. 8.7

Latin America & Caribbean ................ 8.7

Middle East ....................................... 7.3

Africa ................................................. 5.8

Asia Pacifc ........................................ 4.3

Western Europe ................................. 2.1

North America ................................... 0.0

OvERall avERaGE ............................ 4.1

Sources: TeamSAI Consulting Services,

2014-24 MRO Forecast

www.bodycote.com


John Croft Washington

Thinking AheadAirlines are coming to grips with

ADS-B Out mandates

Although six years away, the January 2020 deadline for ADS-B is high on the to-do list for maintenance shop visits even now, especially for smaller opera-tors with large feets who already know they will have problems complying.

“We will not make 2020,” says An-drew Lotter, vice president and director of operations for Amerifight, a Part 135

cargo carrier with 175 turboprop and piston-powered aircraft. “We have to have an aircraft completed every two weeks to make the deadline. We don’t have the manpower to do it.” Lotter re-quested a waiver from the FAA to give the airline an extra four years to com-ply, a plea that the agency has not yet answered. The mandate will require all aircraft fying above 10,000 ft. to carry ADS-B equipment, and at any altitude within a 30-nm radius of Class B air-ports or within Class C airspace.

Mainline airlines have not expressed doubts about meeting the mandate, but rather are strategizing on how best to equip in light of budgets and world-wide activity. “We are a global airline, so we have to consider worldwide man-dates and/or the advantages of equi-page,” says Dan O’Donnell, director of

fight operations technology for United Airlines. Canada was frst to require ADS-B on some high-altitude routes in 2010, with Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore following in late 2013. In Europe, new aircraft must be equipped with ADS-B as of Janu-ary 2015, and existing aircraft must be retroftted with the technology by De-

cember 2017, though airlines there are requesting to push back the date to be more in line with the FAA’s mandate.

A next-generation satellite-based surveillance technology, ADS-B out sends GPS-based aircraft position, heading and velocity, and other iden-tification data to nearby aircraft and ground stations for air trafc control purposes. In most cases, it will require upgrades to the GPS navigation units and transponders of thousands of lega-cy aircraft, while new models will come factory-equipped. The move is meant in large part to free the FAA and other air navigation service providers from using radar systems as a primary means of surveillance in the next-generation air transportation system (NextGen).

While the ADS-B Out mandate mostly benefts the FAA in terms of in-

frastructure costs and air trafc man-agement capabilities, carriers will stand to gain operational and safety enhance-ments by equipping with ADS-B In at the same time. With ADS-B In, the air-craft receives GPS location data from nearby aircraft as well as a comprehen-sive picture of all air trafc from FAA ground stations. Software applications for that data will allow for optimized cruising and capacity enhancement in terminal airspace. There are currently no mandates globally to equip with ADS-B “in,” although the U.S. Senate is pushing for a 2018 mandate.

Southwest Airlines says its ADS-B Out upgrade plans “take into con-sideration maintenance resources, equipment availability, and existing fleet maintenance campaigns and visits. “We analyze gaps and commit resources to additional maintenance lines where needed,” says Rick Dalton, director of airspace and fow manage-ment for the airline. Dalton says part of the fleet is already equipped with ADS-B-capable transponders, but the navigation systems do not meet FAA requirements. He says the airline is fo-cused primarily on performance-based

navigation rather than ADS-B In at the moment.

At United Airlines, the planning process for ADS-B is multifaceted. O’Donnell says the airline will ideally schedule its retrofits with regularly scheduled maintenance work. “How-ever the maintenance visits are gener-ally very full, and when considering an entire feet, it could take fve years to complete a retroft,” he says.

Currently, the airline’s Boeing 787s, 777s, 747-400s and 767-300s and Guam-based 737s are already equipped with elementary and enhanced surveil-lance (ELS/ELH) versions of ADS-B. These meet foreign mandates but will have to be upgraded for the FAA rule. O’Donnell says the airline is in the process of equipping 41 Boeing 757s with ADS-B, and in 2014 will begin outftting 110 Boeing 737s with ADS-B units built by Rockwell Collins under an FAA/Boeing operational benefits validation (OBV) project. United’s OBV aircraft will be its frst that meet the DO-260B navigation performance requirements for the FAA mandate, an

The future is now for airlines strategizing their

surveillance system purchases and installations ahead

of the FAA’s 2020 mandate for automatic dependent

surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) equipage.


ADS-B In will boost operational efciency and pilots’ situational awareness of trafc.

Joh

n C

ro

ft/A

W&

St

ADS-B = Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast

DO-260, DO-260A or DO-260B = RTCA guidelines for ADS-B system performance

FL = Flight Level. NOTE: FL350 is approximately equal to 35,000 ft.

PBN Routes = Performance-Based Navigation routes

HKG FIR = Hong Kong Flight Information Region

EASA = European Aviation Safety Agency

SA Aware GNSS: SA = Selective Availability; GNSS = Global Navigation Satellite System

Source: Honeywell

ADS-B Out Timeline

(U.S. Senate FAA Reauthorization Bill states 2018 for ADS-B In)

enhancement that sets U.S. and Euro-pean units apart from countries with less-stringent requirements. Rockwell Collins has a GPS unit that already meets the ADS-B requirements, and as of mid-December was “weeks away” from completing the certification of software to make its existing transpon-ders meet DO-260B requirements.

Under the OBV program, United will upgrade the 110 737s between April 2014 and December 2018. The FAA will col-lect data on the in-service performance from 2014 to 2016 and issue a fnal re-port in 2016. As part of the program, United will equip an additional 136 737s before the 2020 mandate.

Along with funding OBV, the FAA is also responsible for the data collec-tion and benefts analysis. Craig Peter-son, Rockwell Collins’s director of Air Transport Systems Marketing, says the pilot program will investigate “all man-ner of both developmental, application and in-service environment and utiliza-tion to completely understand the logis-tical, technical and operational nuances of applying this technology to a major U.S. carrier.” He says “modest rewiring” of the 737s is required for the upgrade, in part because ADS-B requires that the transponder be directly wired to the GPS unit, which is packaged in a multi-mode receiver.

Peterson doesn’t believe avionics equipment will be a “choke point” as the 2020 deadline gets closer. “Most of the aircraft in revenue service have a transponder that can upgraded, and most have a GPS that can be up-graded,” he says. “From an avionics perspective, it’s not going to be a giant step forward for manufacturability. It’s more around the rewiring and on-aircraft modifcations. It will create a labor demand and downtime for air-craft to undergo those modifcations.” United’s O’Donnell says the carrier is “proactively wiring” aircraft during heavy maintenance events now so that when it eventually replaces transpon-ders, it can be done overnight.

Avionics provider Honeywell has a DO-260B transponder already avail-able for the regional airline market, and will certify units for Airbus and Boeing models by the end of 2014. Jack Jacobs, vice president of marketing and product management for Honeywell’s safety and information management line, says Boeing and Airbus are “in the queue” for getting the equipment for new aircraft, but he has not had a

lot of airlines saying “retroft me.” The company has earlier-generation ADS-B transponders (DO-260A) flying with United on Boeing 747-400s as part of an FAA-sponsored ADS-B In program to study “in-trail” procedures that al-low for reduced separation compared to legacy oceanic separations of 50 nm. With ADS-B, the procedures will allow 12 ADS-B-equipped 747s to signifcantly reduce that distance, allowing pilots to requests climbs or descents to attain the best altitudes for winds while cruis-ing in the South Pacifc during a one-year operational trial.

In a similar move, US Airways is equipping 20 Airbus A330s with ACSS-built ADS-B Out Mode S tran-sponders and TCAS 3000SP surveil-lance processors as part of an FAA pilot program for ADS-B in the North Atlantic. The avionics will use ACSS’s SafeRoute software applications for ADS-B In to reduce separation with ADS-B Out-equipped aircraft to as lit-tle as 15 nm. using in-trail procedures in North Atlantic oceanic tracks. As of mid-December, ACSS was the only avionics company in the air transport sector with a certifed DO-260B tran-sponder upgrade available.

ACSS says it has equipped more than

200 aircraft with its DO-260B- compli-ant transponders since it gained its frst approval for the system in 2012, and that airlines with large feets will begin upgrading in earnest in 2014 to meet the deadline. The company, an L-3 Com-munications and Thales joint venture, is working on a DO-260B transponder for regional aircraft to be ready in 2014.

For Amerifight, ADS-B In would be a valuable tool if the company can af-ford it. “We have thought about it and the benefits are phenomenal, but it turned into an economics question for us,” says Lotter. “No one is coming to us with the funds to do it.”

Lotter says the company, the larg-est UPS cargo feeder in the U.S., will spend $6.5 million for basic ADS-B Out upgrades, packaged with other panel improvements to be made at the com-pany’s Part 145 repair station and Gar-min dealership. First up for the Garmin ADS-B units are the Fairchild SA-227s and Beech 99s, followed by the Beech 1900s. In 2015, Amerifight will begin upgrading its Embraer 120s; that work will be done by an outside shop. When adding in the Piper Navajos to the mix, the schedule slips out beyond 2020.

“If we can’t keep up with equipage, we are going to be left out,” says Lotter. c



Sean Broderick and Lee Ann Tegtmeier

MRO Trends To Watch in 2014OEMs entrench further into the aftermarket as

independents innovate with engineering, partnerships

and mobility.

Lessors & Life Cycles

Lessors continue their evolution toward ofering services throughout aircraft and engine life cycles by partnering with MRO providers, part-out specialists and others ofering synergistic solutions.

MAINTENANCE, REPAIR & OVERHAULA

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Supplier Innovation

Surplus parts suppliers will continue to innovate as demand for used ser-viceable material—driven in part by impending arrival of new aircraft and related cuts to spending on outgoing models—continues to increase.

Engine OEM Thrust

Engine OEMs will expand their aftermarket penetration beyond initial sale/long-term service agreements by tapping into emerging areas such as certifying surplus parts and the repairs in which those parts will be used.

Parts Partnership

Component OEMs will forge further partnerships with leading MROs, and pooling will continue to increase as both increased parts reliability and complexity drive component prices higher.

Where Are You?

Some high-demand emerging mar-kets such as the Middle East and China continue to struggle to attract and retain skilled maintenance and engineering labor.

Labor-Rate Ramifcations

The labor-rate gap between mature and emerging markets continues to diminish, which puts more empha-sis on work quality and turnaround times and less on potential savings gained through ferrying aircraft out of a region.

Indonesia & Malaysia

Asian airline growth will create opportunities for MROs to expand, with Malaysia and Indonesia, in particular, ofering opportunities for in-region MROs and those from the outside seeking partnerships.

Widening North America

After several years of dormancy, signifcant players are expanding capacity and capabilities in North America—notably widebody maintenance and components—as major airlines become even more focused on their core competencies.

Mobility

Forward-thinking companies will work on streamlining information and data fow as they work toward harnessing Big Data analytics for operational efciencies, and mobility—such as tablets on the hangar foor—becomes an es-sential MRO tool to drive efciencies.

Independent Engineering

Independent MROs will continue to invest in their own engineering capabilities to better distinguish themselves in an ever-increasing landscape dominated by OEMs.

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST for more on the MRO trends to look for next year, or go to

AviationWeek.com/mrotrends2014

Aviation Week’s

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Forecasts

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Henry Canaday Washington

Maintenance MobilityMany choices—from glasses to watches—

ofer wearable maintenance computing

Wearable computing promises many of the same benefts as the latest tab-lets, but with hands-free operation. And who needs to have their hands free more than aviation maintenance technicians and engineers? Innovation in wearable devices is evolving so fast that maintenance shops and depart-ments soon will have many choices. Smart watches, smart glasses, smart rings and other devices will be exten-sively used in airlines and airports. Bringing them onto the tarmac or into

hangars is tougher, but the potential benefts are real.

Choosing a device requires looking at a number of factors. Capabilities, cost, ease of use and durability are the most prominent considerations. The SITA Lab recently conducted trials of several wearable devices. Innovation Manager Stephane Cheikh says SITA worked chiefy with Google Glass and Vuzix M100 headsets, but also looked at some smart watches.

“The M100 has better camera focus,

but Google Glass has a touchpad on the side, so it is easier to maneuver,” Cheikh summarizes. But practical-ity for aviation use depends on how a wearable device is used. Cheikh sees the M100 as better-suited to mainte-nance tasks under wings and outside because it is more robust that Glass. Furthermore, “one limitation of Google is that lots of features are voice-acti-vated. Maintenance on the tarmac en-dures lots of noise, so you might need to use your hands. Glass would be hard to use on the tarmac, but it is still a very good wearable device.”

SITA field-tested smart watches for maintenance with airlines late in 2013. These watches are connected to other devices—for example smart-phones—so users can just tap their wrists, rather than removing a phone from a pocket. “You touch the watch screen and get access to the informa-tion,” Cheikh notes.

One good use for wearable devices might be by the ramp agents who guide aircraft to gates with batons, and plug in electricity and other ser-vices. “They need their hands,” Cheikh notes. “They now use phones and rug-ged devices. They could use smart watches or glasses, take a picture of the tail number and send it to the air-port management system,” which then could come back with information to

The digital revolution frst put maintenance data

online, saving paper and major hassles. Then laptops

brought data to techs, saving walking time to desktops

and kiosks. Smartphones, handhelds and tablets are

starting to cut weight from techs’ bags and shoulders.

What’s next?


Motorola Solutions’ HC1 headset computer is for feld technicians, including those in aviation.

Motorola SolutionS

help the agent to do his or her job, he notes.

One challenge is connecting wearable devices to wireless networks, which Cheikh says is easier inside the airport than outside. Worker accep-tance also may be a hurdle, de-pending on the device. Battery life is another consideration. SITA used early prototypes of Glass and M100 that lasted for only a couple of hours of constant use. “They will im-prove,” Cheikh predicts. “All the OEMs will come up with improved devices in the next 18 to 24 months.”

Progress is rapid in this feld. For ex-ample, Vuzix made night-vision equip-ment for soldiers and weapon sights. The U.S. Army wanted a substitute for laptops, which made soldiers visible at night and weighed them down, explains Vuzix’s president, Paul Travers. So the company began making wearable dis-plays and introduced these to consum-ers in 2004. In November, it launched the M100, true “smart” glasses which combine computing power with a dis-play and a camera. “It’s like a wearable

computer with a Bluetooth headset, you can see a display 12-in. away and it has a high-defnition camera,” Trav-ers explains.

The hands-free device could send video from a mechanic in the feld to an engineer, who could then see what the mechanic is seeing and provide both voice and visual support, perhaps by annotating images, on the viewfnder. The exact kind of support available

would depend on applications created by third-party devel-opers; Vuzix makes hardware and drivers only.

Travers says the M100 runs applications in real time and can work in either stand-alone or Internet-connected modes. It combines images digitally, not optically, so the user is not looking through the screen at the same time while receiving images.

The M100, like other smart glasses, is a heavy power-user

when sending or receiving video. So Vusix ofers a battery clip that can be attached to a belt and provides up to 12 hr. of operation.

The M100 was developed for en-terprises, but is not tough enough to be banged around in a tool box or submerged in water. Vuzix makes a tougher model—the M200—for the military, but this model needs a sepa-rate computing device. “When you make it tougher, you make it more ex-pensive and heavier, so when you put it on your head it hurts at the pinch points,” Travers explains.


Vuzix M100 smart glasses combine an Android-based wearable computer with monocular display.

Vu

zix

The current M100 costs $500 to $1,000 and should last about a year, Travers estimates. So replacing a dam-aged one is not very costly, compared to the cost of other enterprise-level smart glasses, which Travers puts at about $2,500. “And these others are not comfortable to wear for more than an hour. Ours you can wear all day. If it’s not comfortable, they won’t use it.”

Vuzix is shipping the M100 now mostly to software developers and is targeting the aviation market. “Some companies are coming to us that want to develop software and then sell to airlines,” Travers says.

The Vuzix CEO thinks he will have more to ofer aviation next year. In 2014, Vuzix will ofer a new lens less than a millimeter-and-a-half thick that could be used in cockpits during bad weath-er. “You could put information on the glasses so people who fy small aircraft can get the same data as the big guys.”

Another possible device is more am-bitious in design, functionalities and ruggedness, but also more expensive. Motorola Solutions’ HC1 Headset Com-puter was specifcally built for enter-prise users, feld technicians in utilities,

telecommunications and both commer-cial and military aviation, emphasizes Brian McHale, a product manager for Motorola. “And it is in production, you can buy it today,” he adds.

The HC1’s screen emulates a 15-in. laptop screen to show manuals, dia-grams or schematics below, without obscuring the user’s line of sight. McHale calls it “information snacking, grabbing information when you need it. It’s like wearing a rugged laptop.”

The HC1 is controlled by voice, with advanced speaker recognition in up to six languages, or by head movements. Users can even enter text on a virtual keyboard by voice or head movements as well. A clip-on camera can stream video to remote subject-matter experts.

This device was built for loud envi-ronments, like tarmacs or busy han-gars. It has dual, bi-directional noise-canceling microphones and a near-ear loudspeaker that can be replaced with noise-isolating ear buds.

For software, Motorola has part-nered with another company, Intelligent Product Solutions. IPS has developed an application, Entervise, that enables remote experts to see what techs see in

real time and advise them on fxes with annotated photo instructions. Or senior engineers could use HC1 and Entervise to train junior engineers on-site. In both cases, the aim is to avoid the time and cost of travel, while bringing valuable expertise to dispersed locations.

McHale says HC1 is now getting a lot of interest from both civilian and mili-tary maintenance organizations. The device weighs about 24 to 30 ounces and has been designed to ft comfort-ably with personalized adjustments and removable comfort pads, which also allow it to be used by diferent techs. McHale estimates the HC1 could be worn for about three hours at a time. Batteries last from four to eight hours, depending on battery option and how much video streaming is done.

The Motorola manager emphasizes his company now has 21 years of expe-rience with wearable computing, for example making wrist and fnger de-vices for warehouse work. “We know what it takes for wearable equipment to be used seven days a week,” he stresses. The HC1 lists for $4,400 to $5,500 per unit, but volume purchas-ers receive discounts. c



Faster search results

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providers

HEREÕS HOW IT WORKS:

1. Go to AviationWeek.com/MRO Links

2. Search suppliers by company name or

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To become an MRO Links member, contact:

Beth Eddy at 561-862-0005,

[email protected]


Sean Broderick Washington

MRO RulesFrom security to new ratings, repair stations

face several rule changes this year

While 2014 isn’t expected to bring comparable change on the mainte-nance side, a few rules are set to pop that could keep repair stations and technical operations divisions busy.

Leading the way is the long-awaited and now-infamous U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) repair station security rule. Despite a con-gressional mandate to have a rule out by 2004, a fnal version of the regulation still hadn’t seen the light of day as 2013 wound down, though there were indica-tions that its release was close.

Industry hopes so, but not because it wants the new regulations. In 2008, Congress—frustrated with TSA’s foot-dragging—banned FAA from issuing new certifcates to foreign repair sta-tions until TSA issued its final rule. (The draft version hit the streets in 2009.) The ban created a queue of nearly 90 applications.

In March 2013, then-TSA Adminis-trator John Pistole said the rule was in final review at the Office of Man-agement and Budget (OMB). Such reviews—routine for all rules—usu-ally take anywhere from 30 to 90 days. This one has dragged on for six months. As 2013 drew to a close, the Aeronautical Repair Station Associa-tion (ARSA) was lobbying Congress to lift the ban on new foreign certifcates, new rule be damned.

Elsewhere, OMB in November 2013 got its hands on FAA’s proposal to ex-pand drug and alcohol testing for some foreign repair station workers. Mandat-ed by Congress in the 2012 FAA reau-thorization bill, the rule would close a

perceived loophole in FAA procedures that limits testing to covered employees in U.S. locations. Barring an unusually long review or an issue that warrants sending the draft back to FAA for revi-sions, the draft of this rule should be released in 2014. The congressionally mandated deadline was February 2013.

FAA’s mandate for Part 121 airlines to implement safety management sys-tems (SMS) is working its way through the sometimes-byzantine rulemaking process. Released in draft form in No-vember 2010, a fnal version of the rule didn’t make it out of the Transportation Department—its frst stop on the way to OMB—before being routed back to FAA for fne-tuning. FAA re-submitted it to DOT in June, which—barring fur-ther complications—gives the rule a solid chance for publication by 2015.

Lurking in the shadows is what would be the most significant MRO-related fnal rule in years, FAA’s pro-posal to modify Part 145, the main set of U.S. regulations for some 4,800 re-pair stations—including some 700 lo-cated outside the U.S.—that hold FAA certifcates. The rule’s major changes,

a continuation of a partial Part 145 re-vamp fnalized in 2001, would revise the repair station ratings system that has been around for decades.

The draft of the newest Part 145 came out in May 2012; the comment period closed in November 2012. Sev-eral groups, including the Aircraft Elec-tronics Association and ARSA, opposed the proposal outright, and have been lobbying FAA to factor the nearly 250 public comments into a revamped draft. Word is that the alternative—release of a modifed fnal rule based partly on in-dustry input—is in store for 2014.

Add it all up—or even parts of it—and some in the industry are bracing for a costly year.

“The regulatory agencies, not just the FAA, will cost U.S. civil aviation maintenance more and more produc-tivity and proftability,” says ARSA Ex-ecutive Director Sarah MacLeod, who argues that the agency’s priorities are misplaced.

“The lack of reciprocal agreements, like the one between the U.S. and Can-ada that allows work on each country’s aircraft by the other without issuance of a certifcate, impacts maintenance orga-nizations disproportionately,” she says. “It is ironic that a production certifcate need not be issued by every nation for parts and products to be acceptable, while the same is defnitely not true for approved maintenance organizations’ [repair station] certifcates.”

MacLeod urged industry to get in-volved in rulemaking eforts.

“The trend should be for industry to work more closely on the legal under-pinnings of the aviation regulations,” she says. “That means participation in International Civil Aviation Organi-zation (ICAO) as well as being more proactive in rulemaking at home.” c

As U.S. aviation safety-related regulatory

evolutions go, 2013 will be remembered as a

monumental year for pilots. Sweeping sets of new

rules hit the books, revamping training standards and

minimum qualifcations for all U.S. airline pilots.

Many foreign MRO providers work on U.S.-registered

aircraft, so FAA’s rules often have global implications.

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Avionics and Apps

1. Inertial Reference System

Support

Supplier: Navhouse Corp.

Offering: Navhouse added the Litton

LTN-90-100 inertial reference system

(IRS) testing and support capability

to its roster after acquiring Air France

Industries KLM Engineering &

Maintenance’s LTN-99 and LTN-90-100

test stations and related equipment. This

IRS is used onboard Boeing 737 and

Airbus A310 aircraft. Navhouse, which

specializes in supporting legacy and

mature inertial navigation systems, holds

a Level 4 repair station rating with FAA,

Transport Canada and EASA approvals,

along with ISO 9001:2008.

www.navhouse.com

Link 600

2. Night Vision

Supplier: Aero Dynamix

Offering: This company, specializing in

aircraft cockpit lighting solutions, includ-

ing night-vision cockpits, has received

AS9100 Rev. 3 and ISO 9001: 2008

certifcations. These certifcations—

which are a confrmation of safety and

quality standards—took months of audits

and improvements to achieve, which is

typical. Aero Dynamix plans to use these

certifcations to seek new opportuni-

ties to develop night-vision-compatible

cockpits.

www.aerodynamix.com

Link 601

3. Flight Data

Supplier: Latitude Technologies

Offering: This vertically integrated

manufacturer and provider of fight data,

fight-following services and satellite

communications equipment, added a

Web-based fight data analytics platform

for aircraft equipped with the company’s

IONode fight-data recorder. The new

service, Latitude Flight Data Analytics,

is designed to be a user-friendly

MRO LINKS

Enter Link # at www.AviationWeek.com/MROLinks for more information

dashboard that complements the fight-

data monitoring system by enabling

users to put each fight in context—both

on the map display and video playback

feature. Users also can download fight

data for maintenance reporting and

training.

www.latitudetech.com

Link 602

4. Flexible EFB

Supplier: Scandinavian Avionics

Offering: TUIfy selected Scandinavian

Avionics’ electronic fight bag (EFB)

solution for 12 of its Boeing 737-800

aircraft, with the possibility of full feet

deployment in the future. Scandinavian

Avionics’ EFB solutions work with

almost any tablet, so operators can

upgrade tablets to keep up with technol-

ogy changes without making the EFB

out-of-date. TUIfy chose two rugge-

dized 10.1-in. Panasonic tablets and

Scandinavian Avionics’ data integra-

tion center DIC-600, which enables

aircraft interface and server capability.

Danish Air Transport and Norwegian Air

Shuttle also signed EFB contracts with

Scandinavian.

www.scanav.com

Link 603

5. Mobile Maintenance

Supplier: Boeing

Offering: Boeing’s suite of mainte-

nance applications are designed to

improve productivity and effciency,

and Norwegian Air Shuttle just signed

a contract to deploy the maintenance

apps for its line maintenance operations.

Norwegian will deploy the apps in early

2014 to support its Boeing 737 NG

and Classic aircraft, and will integrate

the apps with its back-end maintenance

planning system. After the deployment,

Norwegian’s maintenance technicians

will be able to access critical informa-

tion in real time via iPads, to shorten

turnaround times.

www.boeing.com

Link 604

4

1

2

3

5

Testing, Testing

1. Wi-Fi Remote-Controlled Test

Supplier: Barfeld

Offering: Barfeld introduced a new fully

automated, Reduced Vertical Separation

Minimum (RVSM) compliant air data

test set, the DPS1000, last year, and

now just added a new feature—Wi-Fi-

enabled remote control via a tablet or an

iPad. This air data test set is designed

to feature a user-friendly interface and

customer-programmable test routines.

Barfeld is a Sabena technics company.

www.barfeldinc.com

Link 605

2. Leak Detection

Supplier: Spectronics Corp.

Offering: Spectronics’ ALK-3675 avia-

tion fuid leak-detection kit is designed

to fnd leaks in fuel, lubrication and hy-

draulic systems. A key part of the system

is a rechargeable, cordless ultraviolet

LED fashlight that is designed to be

four times brighter than high-intensity

UV lamps. The company says the kit can

detect leaks in both petroleum-based

and synthetic-based lubricants and

fuels. The kit also includes a bottle of

Aero-Brite fuorescent dye, Glo-Away

dye cleaner, AC and DC charger, UV-

absorbing glasses and a rubber lamp

protector.

www.spectroline.com

Link 606

3. NDT Options

Supplier: NDT Solutions

Offering: NDT Solutions has added

Pragma’s complete line of instruments

to its non-destructive testing distribution

solutions that now include Pragma’s

Pragmalite instrument platform, Paut

16/128 phased-array cartridge, and

Orthromatic 60 encoded scanner.

Pragma designs and manufactures

portable NDT systems.

www.ndts.com

Link 607

MRO LINKS


4. Thermographic NDT

Supplier: Thermal Wave Imaging

Offering: The company just released

the VoyageIR Pro portable inspection

system, designed to provide the perfor-

mance of a lab but in a low-cost, hand-

held package. It features Thermal Wave

Imaging’s thermographic signal recon-

struction, a signal-processing technique

designed to provide the sensitivity of a

full-scale system in a feld-ready pack-

age—coupled with optical excitation—to

provide powerful faw-detection capa-

bilities. The patent-pending lamp-control

hardware redirects halogen lamp beams

during the inspection process to provide

uniform heating. Because this system is

self-contained, inspectors do not need

a laptop; they use the touchscreen user

interface to control and display the im-

ages, which are processed and analyzed

simultaneously with Mosaiq software.

www.thermalwave.com

Link 608

5. Rapid Damage Detection

Supplier: WichiTech

Offering: WichiTech’s hand-held RD3

(rapid damage-detection device) weighs

less than 4 lb. and can detect degrada-

tion and delaminations in composite

structures. It includes a lightweight

hammer containing an accelerometer

that is connected by a fexible cable to

a hand-held module, which includes a

liquid crystal display. Think of this prod-

uct as a digital tap hammer that provides

quantitative readouts that can correlate

to composite structure delamination.

www.wichitech.com

Link 609

4

2

3

5


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AviationWeek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/December 30, 2013/January 6, 2014 145

Link 824

AvMAts

www.avmats.com

AirfrAMes

Jet Support for you Maintenance Operation

AVMATS specializes

airframe, structural,

composite, engine,

APU, component,

instrument and acces-

sory repair or overhaul

for Falcon, Gulfstream,

Hawker, Sabreliner, Beechjet and Cessna aircraft. AVMATS

is ISO 9001:2008 rated and maintains DGAC & FAA

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Link 076

Chemetall gmbH

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CHeMiCALs

Key technologies for the global aerospace industry

With its Ardrox® and Naftoseal®

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aerospace industry: sealants, NDT

products, corrosion inhibiting compounds,

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and paint strippers for airframe, aircraft

operation and aero-engine applications.

Link 828

eMteQ

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AviOniCs

Upcoming Mandate Support

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The event also features a showcase display of technologies, tools, services, and resources that will increase productivity,

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Dubai, UAE

January 21-22, 2014

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April 8-10, 2014

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Link 081

Clemco industries Corp.

www.clemcoindustries.com

CLeAning

Robotic Blast Cabinet Enhances Workflow

Robotic nozzle manipulation delivers

repeatable blasting in an appropriately

sized enclosure. Pick-and-place

capability eases loading/unloading.

Automated vision system detects

even the most minor part defect.

Numerous options meet the needs of

your demanding manufacturing and

maintenance operations.

MRO LINKS SPOtLIGHtS



Link 818

A & r Aviation service inc.

www.aravservices.com

COMpOnent repAir

Nominated MRO Top Shop 2013 FAA/EASA Rep. Station

A&R Aviation special-

izes in the repair and

overhaul of structural

and component parts

on Boeing, Douglas

and Airbus applica-

tions. If it’s an AOG

or we have a contrac-

tual turn time agreement it is our job to make sure we are on

time and you stay in the air. Our warranty policy explains it all.

Link 056

Aviation representatives

www.av-reps.com

COMpOnent repAir

Av-Reps Component Repair & Overhaul

Av-Reps is a Canadian based

company, dedicated to provid-

ing our customers with quality

component overhaul support

for Airbus, Boeing and ATR

aircraft; as well as Bombardier

regional aircraft. Av-Reps

overhaul capabilities include

landing gear, hydraulic, pneumatic, mechanical and

electrical components for all aircrafts supported.

Link 831

Magnum Aircraft repair services d/b/a MArs inc.

www.marsrepair.com

COMpOnent repAir

Hydraulics, Heat Transfers, & Heavy-Load Repairs

MARS Inc. is a FAA repair station

that specializes in overhaul & repair

of aircraft components. Our fully

trained technical staff can diagnose

and repair your components in

less time, with lower costs, and

a tag you can count on all while

maintaining industry-leading

quality standards.

Link 834

professional technology repairs, LLC

www.ptr1.net

COMpOnent repAir

24/7 AOG Support Service on Repairs and Exchanges

PTR specializes in the

supply and repair of

aircraft components and

accessories. An AOG 24/7

response team; allowing us

to quickly meet customer

needs. The aviation industry

is a global business; and

PTR strives to give quality/

solutions and committed to excellence in

providing a world class service

Link 823

Aviation personnel

www.Aviationpersonnel.net

COnsuLting serviCes

PROVIDING AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE PROFESSIONALS

Aviation Personnel provides

experienced & qualifed technical

personnel for the aviation industry:

•Structural/SheetMetal

Technicians

•AvionicsTechnicians/Installers

•A&PMechanics

•CabinetBuildersandFinishers

•Painters

•InteriorInstallers

•Inspectors

Contact us at: 817-806-4414•[email protected]

Link 316

BAsf

www.aerospace.basf.com

COMpOsites

BASF Aerospace Materials

Aerospace materials from BASF

include a broad portfolio of products

and technologies that can provide

unique solutions across a wide range

of applications — cabin interiors,

structural materials, seating

components, fuel and lubricant

solutions, coatings & specialty

pigments, as well as fame retardants

& fre protection.

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Link 837

the Offshore group

www.offshoregroup.com

COnsuLting serviCes

Manufacturing In Mexico Is Easier Than You Think

The Offshore Group is Mexico’s largest provider of support services to foreign manufacturers. The Offshore Group’s Manufacturing Communities provide a shared-services environment that allows foreign manufacturers to focus their resources to reach high levels of productivity, quality, and timely delivery.

Link 825

the Champion Company

www.champion.us.com

gse

Split, Rollover and Ship Dolly Engine Stands

As a global leader in the design, development, testing & manufacturing of shipping & storage containers & GSE for aviation, military, power generation & space programs, our manufacturing capabilities cover all metal working requirements for carbon steel, aluminum, stainless steel & other materials.

Link 836

skypaxxx interior repairs

www.skypaxxxrepairs.com

interiOrs

Leading Seat And Interior Repair Station

SkyPaxxx Interior Repairs is a customer frst, customer focused company with specialists in cabin and crew seating, seat covers and cushions, interior component repair and recovering, part manufacturing and repair, and fooring. SkyPaxxx has the capabilities to handle all of your interior needs.

Link 821

Amglo Kemlite Laboratories

www.amglo.com

LigHting

YOUR LIGHTING SOLUTIONS PARTNER!

Amglo Kemlite Laboratories, Inc. is a global manufacturer of specialty lamps and related lamp components in Aerospace, Airfeld, Medical, Vehicular, Obstruction, Locomotive, Laser lamp, and Tower Lighting industries.

Link 121

Harco

www.harcolabs.com

eLeCtriCAL COMpOnents

A320 Landing Gear Harness Repair

Servicing both OEM & Aftermarket with repair, overhaul & replace-ment. Capabilities include repair or replacement hardware for the entire aircraft, from engine and airframe to APU, landing gear, ECS and all subsystems. Specializing in Harness Assemblies & Temperature Sensors.

Link 342

erie Aviation, inc.

www.erieaviation.com

interiOrs

Self-Closing Washbasin Faucet by Franke-aquarotter

Self-Closing Faucets for use in aircraft lavatories. These faucets are avail-able in dual temperature selection or for single temp operations. Faucet features a hydraulically adjustable timing control for (3-20sec).Supplied as standard equipment on various Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer Aircraft.




Link 395

Bp Aero services

www.bpaeroservices.com

MrO serviCes

Engine Components and Accessories

BP Aero Services’ FAA145 Station supports BP Aerospace’s disassembly operations: offering a one stop shop. Teardown to 8130 with world class TAT. Frames, Cases, Tubes, Sensors, Heat Exchangers, Fuel/Lube Pumps, Starters. FPI, MPI, CMM inspections to OEM Requirements: CFM (All), CF6-80C2, PW4000.

Link 833

piedmont Aviation Component services

www.piedmontaviation.com

MrO serviCes

“Piedmont - Exceeding Expectations, Worldwide”

Honeywell authorized service center with over 30 yrs’ experience. Specializing in GTCP331, 85 & 36 series APUs & LRUs for commercial, regional & military markets. Lease units readily available. Other services include Landing Gear overhaul/repair plus in-house machining, plating & grinding operations

Link 826

Color Craft

www.colorcraftinc.com

pAints/COAtings

High Performance Graphics Solutions

Manufacture aircraft livery, interior and exterior markers/graphics for over 60 years. Innovators and creators of the revolutionary new O3 Paint Transfer and TI Interior Direct Print Systems.

Link 757

impex international

www.impexint.com

MeCHAniCAL COMpOnents

YOUR SINGLE SOURCE FOR FASTENERS AND FITTINGS

Since 1985, Impex Provides an extensive product line of standard and special engineered mechanical components (Fasteners and Fittings) to aerospace and defense customers.ISO 9001 / AS 9120 Certifed ,One Stop Shop for Multiple Items, Exceptional Customer Service Major Credit Cards Accepted.

Link 547

infnity Air, inc. / Allfight Corp

www.infnityair.com

MrO serviCes

Supplier and Repair Station Of Choice

Allfight Washington (FAA # PK3R654Y) and Allfight Florida (FAA # 8A9R791B) are strategically located to service your repair needs. With a core product line focused on Flight surface control, interior products, and windshields, we carry over 1.68 million line items of inventory for exchange, loan, sales and lease requirements.

Link 722

M7 Aerospace

www.elbitsystems-us.com

MrO serviCes

Your Services and Support Solution

The Elbit Systems of America companies offer a full range of services and support solutions. This includes Manufacturing, Parts and Repairs, Design, Engineering, Planning, Supply Chain Management, COMBS, Contractor Logistics Support, and MRO Services.

Advertising seCtiOn



Link 360

nycote Laboratories

www.nycote.com

pAints/COAtings

Coating/Maintenance

Our unique clear formula

shields metals and other

compounds from wear,

corrosion, friction and

conductivity. Its fuid

application eliminates

pinholes and gives

surfaces a void-free

impervious barrier that is unattainable by other products.

Link 820

Aero-Zone

www.aero-zone.com

pArts suppLy/LOgistiCs

Aero-Zone Celebrating 20 Years of Industry-Leading Service!

For 20 years, Aero-Zone

has been a leader in the

aircraft parts industry. A

trusted provider of parts for

commercial, corporate and general-aviation aircraft, we

support aviators large and small. Our team has been

selected for their ability to innovate, and to deliver only

the highest levels of service and quality.

Link 827

efteC Ltd.

www.eftecltd.com


Express solutions to supply chain challenges

EFTEC is a provider of spare parts

for various aircraft types. Quality is a

fundamental component of our people,

our business and the foundation of

our corporate principals. Based on a

thorough knowledge of CRJ-100/200

parts market, we offer the best prices

for our spare parts.

Link 829

first Wave Aerospace

www.frstwave.aero


Best In Service. Right On Price. Always On Call

First Wave Aerospace is

a 21 year-old commercial

aircraft parts distributor

with 24/7 AOG service

answered by a live, expe-

rienced parts specialist. If

We don’t have a part in our

7-million part inventory, we

fnd it.

Link 830

Kellstrom Materials

www.kellstrommaterials.com


Airline & MRO Spare Parts & Supply Chain Services

Kellstrom Materials delivers cost-

effective spare parts and supply chain

management support. Services include

new OEM and pre-owned parts

distribution, AOG and JIT support,

consignment management, repair

management, overhauled rotable

components, whole engine assets, and

feet provisioning programs.

Link 753

KApCO AAXiCO

www.kapcoaero.com


More Than Distribution

We are a 100% employee owned

global leader of distribution and supply

chain solutions. We offer customized

supply chain solutions for both OEM

and aftermarket customers and have

various manufacturing capabilities

to meet all your supply chain

management needs.




Link 832

network global Logistics

www.nglog.com/industries/aerospace


Covering all your AOG needs from tip to tail.

NGL is the aerospace industry’s

partner of choice, who moves rapidly

and makes the impossible, possible.

Our experienced AOG response team

operates 24x7 to get your aircraft

back in the air as fast as possible, by

expediting the delivery of your critical

parts to any service center around

the world.

Link 819

AeroComply, inc.

www.aerocomply.com

sOftWAre

Aviation Management & Compliance Systems in the Cloud

AeroComply is a cloud-based

ERP system specifcally

designed for the FAA

regulations governing the

aviation industry. Customers

have no IT infrastructure costs

to deal with. If you can get to

the internet, you can manage

your business with the most

powerful ERP system in the industry.

Link 835

ptC

www.ptc.com/go/service

sOftWAre

PTC Product and Service Advantage

PTC’s Service Lifecycle

Management system of

best-in-class technology

solutions enables your

organization to increase

equipment uptime, reduce

the cost and cycle times

of maintenance and repair,

and ensure industry and

regulatory compliance.

Link 822

AteQ-OMiCrOn

www.ateq-omicron.com

test eQuipMent

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR, GET AN ADSE

ADSE 743 Pitot static test set RVSM

compliant capable of altitudes of 60,000FT/

6000ft/min. Large touch screen display

enables all tests to be carried out easily

from the fight deck or cockpit, by a single

operator.

Link 281

Aersale, inc.

www.aersale.com

suppLy CHAin/LOgistiCs

Excellence in Engine and Airframe Spares Support

AerSale provides material

supply chain solutions to

both airlines and interna-

tional MRO organizations.

Our material services

include inventory consign-

ments, repair management,

and component exchange

programs.

Link 303

Advanced torque products LLC

www.advancedtorque.com

tOOLs

Powerful, Precision Bolting without External Power

High Precision, Mechanical Torque

Wrenches & Multipliers

•1%accuracy-reducedcalibration

•Lightweight-ergonomic,small

footprint

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•Digitalcontrol-Internationalmeasurement

A Veteran Owned Company

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Phone: 860.828.1523

To Place Your Classifed Ad Contact: Arlene Braithwaite; (410) 772-0820; e-mail: [email protected]; Fax: (703) 938-5910.

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AAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3rd CoverAir Shunt Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140Airbus Defence & Space (EADS Astrium) . . 89Arc En Ciel Com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23Aviation Week AWIN Fleet & MRO Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . 137 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast . . . . . . . . . 71* MRO Links. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140 Singapore Airshow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117Aviation Week Events Defense Technology & Requirements . . .15, 55** Laureate Awards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75* MRO Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 MRO Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 MRO Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111BAE Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103Ball Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Bodycote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Boeing Co., The . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5, 55*, 95Breitling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-13Chromalloy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93CMC Electronics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Custom Control Sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

DynCorp International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105Elbit Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79Esterline Engineered Materials . . . . . . . . . . .129Eurofghter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Finmeccanica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59Forecast International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97General Atomics Aeronautical Systems . . . 69HARCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123HEICO Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99IAI, Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. . . . . . . . 21ILA Messe Berlin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113ILS, Inventory Locator Services LLC . . . . . . 127ImageSat International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Intelsat General Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41Intevac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63L-3 Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Louisiana Economic Development . . . . . . . . . .7Marvin Test Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109Meggitt Defense Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65MTU Aero Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17New Hampshire Ball Bearings . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Ontic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Philpott Ball & Werner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .139

PPG Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101PTI Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31RAFAEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Raytheon Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11, 81Rockwell Collins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4th CoverRUAG Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71**, 75**Singapore Airshow 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121SME, Society of Manufacturing Engineers . . 45Spirit AeroSystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2nd CoverTAT Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124TenCate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87The Lee Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Thomas Instrument . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3United Technologies, Pratt & Whitney . . . . 131ViaSat Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Classifed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 AviationWeek.com/jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 Matec Instrument Companies . . . . . . . . . . 151 Survival Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

* - Domestic edition.** - International edition.

Jan. 21-22—MRO Latin America. Rio de Janeiro.

Feb. 4-6—MRO Middle East. Dubai.

Feb. 10—Air Transport World’s 40th Annual Airline Industry Achievement

Awards. Pan Pacifc Singapore Hotel.

march 4-5—Defense Technology and Afordability Requirements. Washington.

march 6—Aviation Week’s Laureate Awards. Washington.

April 8-10 —MRO Americas. Phoenix.

oct. 7—MRO Europe. Madrid.

Jim McNerney, Boeing’s chairman and CEO, began 2013 on a bad note as a lithium-ion bat-tery meltdown led to an embarrassing three-

month grounding of the 787 jet. Ten months later, it all seemed like a bad dream. In back-to-back press conferences at the Dubai Airshow, orders and com-mitments were announced for more than $100 billion worth of Boeing jets, including the newly launched 777X. It was—literally—McNerney’s fnest hour.

Like Boeing, the aerospace and defense (A&D) industry had its share of highs and lows in the tu-multuous year of 2013. The U.S. Congress, abdicating its responsibility to govern, allowed indiscriminate, across-the-board budget cuts to take efect in March. The industry spent the ensuing months in a fog of uncertainty about the long-term future of individual Pentagon programs—exacerbated by a congressio-nally induced government shutdown—before law-makers fnally ended the year with a modest budget compromise that will provide some relief and stabil-ity in 2014.

By contrast, prosperity continued apace in the commercial aircraft industry, as robust demand for jetliners padded already bulging orderbooks at Air-bus and Boeing. The Airbus A350 and Bombardier CSeries jets made their frst fights, and the 777X and 787-10 programs were launched, continuing the industry’s rollout of a new generation of more ef-cient aircraft. And to the delight of airframers and their suppliers, the Dubai show underscored how airlines outside the U.S. and Europe continue to re-shape the market, with hundreds of billions of dollars in orders from Middle Eastern carriers.

We had our share of changes, too, at Aviation Week & Space Technology during my frst year as editor-in-chief. On Aug. 1, our media, data and events business-es were acquired by Penton Media. Under Penton’s umbrella, we’re now teamed up with other leading aviation and aerospace brands, including Air Trans-port World and SpeedNews. Look for us to leverage that combined strength in 2014.

I am also proud to report that Aviation Week’s global team continues to produce world-class aero-space journalism. Among our recent standouts were Senior Propulsion Editor Guy Norris’s unveiling of Lockheed Martin Skunk Works’ plans to develop a Mach 6 “SR-72” aircraft, which went viral on social media. Not to be outdone, senior defense editors Amy Butler and Bill Sweetman followed by revealing the existence of a stealthy unmanned U.S. penetrator aircraft developed by Northrop Grumman and fown in secret.

Those two scoops under-scored Aviation Week’s long history of unearthing what is going on behind-the-scenes in A&D. But I believe we also ex-cel at basic blocking and tack-ling. We love to get something frst—but not at the expense of not getting it right. That is not an easy sell in this age of instant information. We took some heat for putting up only one article on AviationWeek.com in the immediate aftermath of the Asiana 777 crash landing in San Francisco, while cable television news was breathlessly reporting every rumor. But our sub-sequent coverage of the crash by Norris and avionics and safety editor John Croft set us apart by digging into the issues surrounding the accident, including how the aircraft’s fuselage structure held together, saving many lives. Numerous readers told us they turned to Aviation Week to see what was really going on because they trusted our reporting to be accurate.

But there is always room for improvement. Twice during the year I issued invitations for comments on how we could do better, and readers responded in droves, with reviews that ranged from gushing to cranky. We’re listening. A number of longtime sub-scribers felt that Aviation Week had strayed too far from our technical heritage. We’ve responded by bolstering our coverage of avionics and producing features with deeper dives into critical new tech-nologies that will advance this industry. We also in-creased our popular pilot reports, with chief aircraft evaluation editor Fred George producing articles (accompanied by online videos) on the Gulfstream G650, Airbus A400M, Dassault Falcon 2000S and Bombardier Learjet 75. Meanwhile, we sought to of-fer new perspectives to our readers by adding four guest columnists and transferring oversight of our commercial reporting team from the U.S. to manag-ing editor Jens Flottau in Frankfurt.

The early returns are positive. In the frst three quarters of 2013, new subscriptions were up 17% and subscriptions to our digital-only edition more than doubled, with a notable increase in Europe. Renewal rates in both print and digital also ticked up signif-cantly.

So here I go again. What can we do to further improve the product? What topics do you want to read more—or less—about? I’m using the holidays to clean out my email inbox. Let us know what you think: ([email protected]). c

What can we do to further improve the product?

““

Blocking and Tackling

Letter from the Editor


Joseph C. Anselmo

Editor-In-Chief

AAR — Trusted Partner for Aerospace & Defense

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© 2013 Rockwell Collins. All rights reserved.

aviation week & space technology - january 6 2014

Documents

bill sweetman chief

bureau chief james

lee ann tegtmeier chief

anselmoexecutive editor

chief joseph

c e t e c h n o

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s i o n tak e s f