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Autumn Budget 2017
data sources
November 2017
Autumn Budget 2017 data sources
November 2017
© Crown copyright 2017
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Preface
This document provides details of sources of data in all the tables, charts, and
graphs in the Autumn Budget 2017 document. In addition, it includes details of
sources for some data included in the text where, for reasons of space, it has not
been possible to footnote these sources.
The document is aimed at transparently informing readers of the Autumn Budget
2017 document where the data used in the charts, tables, and text comes from and
how it has been calculated.
This document also ensures that the Treasury meets the standards set out by the UK
Statistics Authority to comply with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.
In particular, this document aims to meet 2 of the requirements of the UK Statistics
Authority’s ‘Code of Practice for Official Statistics’:
• to distinguish clearly between outturn data that are official statistics, and
other data and estimates that are not official statistics.1 Examples of
estimates that are not official statistics include forecasts, management
information, economic estimates calculated by the Treasury or other
government departments which are constructed using assumptions or
judgements and where the results of economic analyses have a material
effect on the resulting estimate
• for outturn data that are official statistics, to clearly refer to the source of
the statistics and provide a link to the statistical release. Where possible,
the sources that are used and shown are National Statistics2
Full details of sources are only provided for outturn data up to the 2016-17. Data
for future years are forecasts. All of these are outside the domain of official statistics,
as are the estimates of the impacts of government measures or policy decisions, as
these are estimated, rather than measured or compiled using statistical processes.
In many cases, data for 2017-18 onwards are taken from the Office for Budget
Responsibility’s (OBR) ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ (EFO) November 2017. Where
this is the case, it is mentioned in the text or in this document.
1 The ‘official statistics’ label refers to a specified subset of the quantitative information produced by the government and its nominated
agents. Official statistics are produced and published in accordance with provisions set out in the Statistics and Registration Service Act
2007 and in supplementary statistical legislation, and in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
2 The ‘National Statistics’ label applies to a distinct subset of ‘official statistics’ which has been formally certified by the UK Statistics
Authority to be compliant with the professional standards set out in the Code. Public bodies that produce National Statistics have
a statutory duty to continue to comply with the Code.
Time series for data that are shown with Office for National Statistics (ONS) time
series identifiers codes can be downloaded from the ONS website at:
//www.ons.gov.uk.
1
Contents
Executive summary 2
Chapter 1 UK economy and public finances 5
Chapter 2 Policy decisions 36
Chapter 3 Tax 37
Chapter 4 Productivity 38
Chapter 5 Housing 41
2
Executive summary
Table 1: Autumn Budget 2017 policy decisions
Data Costings for all scoring measures at ‘Autumn Budget 2017’
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury policy costings
Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed
costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material
impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics
Chart 1: Public sector spending 2018-19
Data Spending on each of the main functions of government, and Total Managed
Expenditure.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury economic estimates
Further reference information • These figures are calculated as economic estimates, including the effects
of assumptions and results from economic and policy analyses that have a
material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics.
• Spending allocations by function are mainly based on HM Treasury
analyses of 2016-17 departmental outturn submitted on the OSCAR
database. The allocation of spending to functions is largely consistent
with the United Nations’ Classifications of the Functions of Government
(COFOG). Total Managed Expenditure (TME) is presented on a European
System of Accounts 2010 (ESA10) basis and is consistent with the Office
for Budget responsibility (OBR) 2018-19 fiscal forecast.
• The figures for Housing and environment do not include the expenditure
of English Housing Associations. These were reclassified on 16 November
3
2017 to the private sector. Please see Office for National Statistics
statement:
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/statementonclassificat
ionofenglishhousingassociationsnovember2017
• Other expenditure includes general public services (including international
services); plus recreation, culture and religion; plus European Union
transactions.
• Figures may not sum due to rounding.
• The classifications used for these projections are consistent with the
outturn statistics published by HM Treasury in the Public Spending
Statistics, November 2017, available at:
• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-spending-statistics-
release-november-2017
• More information on COFOG is available at:
• https://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcst.asp?Cl=4&Top=1&Lg=1
Chart 2: Public sector current receipts 2018-19
Data Breakdown of ‘Autumn Budget 2017’ forecast of public sector receipts to its
principal contributors
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility
Further reference information • 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from the OBR’s ‘Economic
and fiscal outlook’ November 2017.
• ‘Income tax’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from ‘Income
tax (gross of tax credits)’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the
OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘National Insurance contributions’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast
taken from ‘National insurance contributions’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current
receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Excise duties’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from lines
‘Fuel duties’, ‘Tobacco duties’, ‘Spirits duties’, ‘Wine duties’ and ‘Beer and
cider duties’ from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and
fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Corporation tax’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from
‘Corporation tax’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s
‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
4
• ‘VAT’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from lines ‘Value
added tax’ and ‘VAT refunds’ from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the
OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Business rates’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from
‘Business rates’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s
‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Council tax’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from ‘Council
tax’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and
fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Other taxes’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from ‘National
Accounts taxes’ line after ‘Income tax (gross tax credits)’, ‘National
Insurance contributions’, ‘Value added tax’, ‘Corporation tax’, ‘Fuel
duties’, ‘Business rates’, ‘Council tax’, ‘VAT refunds’, ‘Tobacco duties’,
‘Spirits duties’, ‘Wine duties’ and ‘Beer and cider duties’ lines from Table
4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’
November 2017
• ‘Other non-taxes’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from
‘Current receipts’ line after ‘National Accounts taxes’ from Table 4.6
‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November
2017 have been subtracted.
5
Chapter 1
UK economy and public finances
Paragraph 1.1
Data UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK quarterly GDP growth (IHYQ)
Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro
ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017
Data UK employment level and unemployment rate
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Number of people in employment, aged 16+ (MGRZ)
• Unemployment rate, aged 16+ (MGSX)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Data Income inequality
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
6
• Disposable income Gini coefficient
Further reference information • Household income and inequality, 2017, Table 11
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhou
seholdfinances/incomeandwealth/datasets/householddisposableincomean
dinequality
Paragraph 1.2
Data Consumer price inflation
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Total consumer price inflation (D7G7)
Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu
merpriceinflation/october2017
Data Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Real household disposable income per head (CRXX)
Further reference information • Economic well-being, April to June 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhou
seholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/economicwellbeing/apriltojune
2017
Data Business investment growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Gross fixed capital formation: business investment (NPEL)
7
Further reference information • ‘UK Economic accounts’, October 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/unit
edkingdomeconomicaccounts
Data Productivity growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)
Further reference information • Labour productivity, April to June 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo
urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017
• UK productivity flash estimate: July to September 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/produc
tivitymeasures/articles/gdpandthelabourmarket/julytoseptember2017
Data Productivity in the advanced economies
Data source • Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Further reference information • GDP per hour worked, constant prices, G7 countries
• http://stats.oecd.org/
Data UK productivity forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK productivity forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
8
Paragraph 1.4: UK Economy
Data UK GDP and GDP per capita growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK annual GDP growth (IHYP)
• UK annual GDP per capita growth (N3Y6)
Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro
ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017
Data UK GDP growth revisions
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK GDP growth revisions (KB82)
Further reference information • ‘UK National Accounts, The Blue Book’, 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/compendiu
m/unitedkingdomnationalaccountsthebluebook/2017
Paragraph 1.5: UK Economy
Data UK GDP growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK quarterly GDP growth (IHYQ)
Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro
ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017
9
Data UK services, production, manufacturing and construction output growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics
• Services output (L2NC)
• Construction output (L2N8)
• Production output (L2KQ)
• Manufacturing output (L2KX)
Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro
ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017
Paragraph 1.6: UK Economy
Data Real household consumption growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Real household consumption expenditure (ABJR)
• Real consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving
households (HAYO)
Further reference information • ‘UK economic accounts’, October 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/unit
edkingdomeconomicaccounts
Data Consumer confidence
Data source • GfK (Society for Consumer Research)
Further reference information • GfK consumer confidence index, October 2017
• http://www.gfk.com/en-gb/press-room/press-releases/
10
Data Retail sales growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Total retail sales 3-month growth (J5EG)
Further reference information • Retail sales, Great Britain, October 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/r
etailsales/october2017
Paragraph 1.7: UK Economy
Data Business investment growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Gross fixed capital formation: business investment (NPEL)
Further reference information • ‘UK economic accounts’, October 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/unit
edkingdomeconomicaccounts
Data Private business surveys
Data source • Deloitte
• Confederation of British Industry (CBI)
• British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)
• Bank of England
• Manufacturers’ Association (EEF)
Further reference information • Deloitte chief financial officers survey, Q3 2017
• https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-
survey.html
• CBI industrial trends survey, Q3 2017
11
• http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-growth-softened-in-three-
months-to-october-quarterly-industrial-trends-survey/
• BCC quarterly economic survey, Q3 2017
• http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/policy-maker/economic-
data/quarterly-economic-survey/
• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, Q3 2017
• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar
y/2017/q3.pdf
• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, November
2017
• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar
y/2017/nov.pdf
• EEF manufacturing outlook, Q3 2017
• https://www.eef.org.uk/about-eef/media-news-and-insights/media-
releases/2017/sep/industry-makes-hay-while-the-sun-shines-as-exports-go-
from-strength-to-strength
Paragraph 1.8: UK Economy
Data Import and export volumes growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Total export volumes (IKBK)
• Total import volumes (IKBL)
Further reference information • UK trade, September 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/b
ulletins/uktrade/september2017
Data Net trade contribution to GDP growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Net trade contribution to quarter-on-year GDP growth (ZZ6D)
Further reference information • UK quarterly national accounts, April to June 2017
12
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/qua
rterlynationalaccounts/aprtojun2017
• UK quarterly national accounts data tables – sheet AB Annex B
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/ukq
uarterlynationalaccountsdatatables
Data Surveys of export orders
Data source • IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS)
• Confederation of British Industry (CBI)
• British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)
• Bank of England
• Manufacturers’ Association (EEF)
Further reference information • IHS Markit/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI, July to October 2017
• https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases
• CBI industrial trends survey, Q3 2017
• http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-growth-softened-in-three-
months-to-october-quarterly-industrial-trends-survey/
• BCC quarterly economic survey, Q3 2017
• http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/policy-maker/economic-
data/quarterly-economic-survey/
• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, Q3 2017
• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar
y/2017/q3.pdf
• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, November
2017
• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar
y/2017/nov.pdf
• Bank of England inflation report, November 2017
• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/
2017/nov.pdf
• EEF manufacturing outlook, Q3 2017
13
• https://www.eef.org.uk/about-eef/media-news-and-insights/media-
releases/2017/sep/industry-makes-hay-while-the-sun-shines-as-exports-go-
from-strength-to-strength
Paragraph 1.9: UK Economy
Data UK current account deficit, investment income deficit and trade deficit, including
revisions
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK current account balance as a percentage of GDP (AA6H)
• Investment income debits (HBOL)
• Investment income credits (HBOK)
• UK trade balance (IKBJ)
Further reference information • Balance of payments, April to June 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/b
ulletins/balanceofpayments/apriltojune2017
• ‘UK Balance of payments, the Pink Book’, 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/b
ulletins/unitedkingdombalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook/2017
Paragraph 1.10: UK Economy
Data Productivity (output per hour) growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)
Further reference information • Labour productivity, April to June 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo
urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017
• UK productivity flash estimate: July to September 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/produc
tivitymeasures/articles/gdpandthelabourmarket/julytoseptember2017
14
Data Total hours worked
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Total actual weekly hours worked (YBUS)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Chart 1.1: Employment and unemployment rates since 1975
Data UK unemployment and employment rates since 1975
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Unemployment rate, aged 16+ (MGSX). Number of unemployed people
aged 16+ as a percentage of the economically active population aged
16+ (MGSF). The economically active population is defined as those in
employment plus those who are unemployed.
• Employment rate, aged 16-64 (LF24). Number of people in employment
aged 16-64 as a percentage of the population aged 16-64.
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Paragraph 1.11: UK Economy
Data UK employment level
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Number of people in employment, aged 16+ (MGRZ)
15
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Data Employment rate
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Employment rate, 16-64 (LF24)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Data Unemployment rate
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Unemployment rate, 16 and over (MGSX)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Data Female employment level
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Female employment level, 16 and over (MGSB)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
16
Data Full-time employment level
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Full-time employment level (YCBK)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Data Unemployment fall outside London and the South East since 2010
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Spreadsheet HI00: Headline LFS indicators for all regions
• Unemployment level, 16-64, (LF2I) Feb-Apr 2010 to Jul-Sep 2017
Further reference information • Regional labour market statistics in the UK, November 2017, HMT
calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/november2017
Data Number of workless households
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• All workless households
Further reference information • Households by combined activity status of household members, August
2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/datasets/workingandworklesshouseholdstablea
householdsbycombinedeconomicactivitystatusofhouseholdmembers
17
Box 1.1: Productivity – a long term challenge
Data UK employment level
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Number of people in employment, aged 16+ (MGRZ)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Data Contribution to UK GDP from employment growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK GDP level (ABMI)
• Total actual weekly hours worked (YBUS)
• Employment level, 16 and over (MGRZ)
Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro
ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017
• UK labour market, October 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2017
Data Productivity in OECD countries
Data source • Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Further reference information • GDP per hour worked, constant prices, OECD countries, HMT calculations
• http://stats.oecd.org/
18
Data UK productivity
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)
Further reference information • Labour productivity, April to June 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo
urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017
Chart 1.2: Contributions of productivity and labour to GDP growth
Data Contribution to UK GDP from productivity and labour
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK GDP level (ABMI)
• Total actual weekly hours worked (YBUS)
• Employment level, 16 and over (MGRZ)
• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)
Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro
ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017
• UK labour market, November 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
• Labour productivity, April to June 2017, HMT calculations
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo
urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017
Chart 1.3: Average annual productivity growth
Data Average productivity growth in the UK, G7 and OECD
19
Data source • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Further reference information • OECD, HMT calculations
• Annual growth rate of GDP per hour worked, constant prices.
• Average calculated as arithmetic mean of calendar year growth rates for
each period. OECD average is made up of the average of available
countries in each year.
Paragraph 1.12: UK Economy
Data Total and regular pay growth
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Total pay growth (KAC3)
• Regular pay growth (KAI9)
Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl
oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Data National Living Wage support of earnings growth for workers in lower paid jobs
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Annual survey of hours and earnings
Further reference information • UK annual survey of hours and earnings, November 2015, HMT analysis
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni
ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2015prov
isionalresults
• UK annual survey of hours and earnings, October 2017, HMT analysis
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni
ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2017prov
isionaland2016revisedresults
20
• Gross weekly earnings of full-time employees whose pay period was not
affected by absence were taken at every 5th percentile for 2015 and
2017, with values converted to constant prices using the Consumer Price
Index.
• These values were then used to calculate the real change in gross weekly
earnings across the period.
Data Real wage growth among lowest earners
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Annual survey of hours and earnings
Further reference information • UK annual survey of hours and earnings, November 2015, HMT analysis
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni
ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2015prov
isionalresults
• UK annual survey of hours and earnings, October 2017, HMT analysis
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni
ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2017prov
isionaland2016revisedresults
• Gross weekly earnings of full-time employees whose pay period was not
affected by absence were taken at every 5th percentile for 2015 and
2017, with values converted to constant prices using the Consumer Price
Index.
• The lowest earners were defined as those in the 5th earnings percentile.
• These values were then used to calculate the real change in gross weekly
earnings across the period.
Data Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Real household disposable income per head (CRXX)
Further reference information • Economic well-being, April to June 2017
21
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhou
seholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/economicwellbeing/apriltojune
2017
Paragraph 1.13: UK Economy
Data Sterling depreciation
Data source • Bank of England
• Sterling effective exchange rate index (XUDLBK67)
Further reference information • Bank of England interactive database, November 2017, HMT calculations
• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/NewInterMed.asp?Travel
=NIxAZxI3xSCxSUx
Data Consumer price inflation
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Total consumer price inflation (D7G7)
• Consumer goods price inflation (D7NM)
• Consumer services price inflation (D7NN)
Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu
merpriceinflation/october2017
Chart 1.4: CPI inflation
Data UK consumer prices index and contributions
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Consumer prices index (D7G7)
• Contributions to CPI by energy and fuel, food and other goods, and
services.
22
Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017, HMT analysis
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu
merpriceinflation/october2017
• Contributions to the CPI inflation rate are calculated by HMT using Table
25 (CPI weights) and Table 54 (CPI indices) of the Consumer Price Inflation
dataset published on www.ons.gov.uk.
Paragraph 1.14: UK Economy
Data Consumer price inflation, including housing costs
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Total consumer price inflation including housing costs (L55O)
Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu
merpriceinflation/october2017
Paragraph 1.15: Global Economy
Data G20 GDP growth
Data source • Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Further reference information • GDP growth, on the same quarter of the previous year, in the G20
countries
• https://data.oecd.org/gdp/quarterly-gdp.htm
Data Global GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
23
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.16: Economic Outlook
Data UK GDP growth and productivity forecasts
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK GDP growth forecast
• UK productivity forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK employment level forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK employment level forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK sustainable unemployment rate and trend employment forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK sustainable unemployment rate forecast
• Equilibrium employment rate forecast
• Potential population forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
24
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.17: Economic Outlook
Data 2017 UK GDP growth forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK GDP growth forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK GDP growth revisions
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK GDP level (ABMI)
Further reference information • ‘UK National Accounts, The Blue Book’, 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/compendiu
m/unitedkingdomnationalaccountsthebluebook/2017
Data UK consumption growth forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK household consumption growth forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK business investment forecast
25
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK business investment forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Table 1.1: Summary of the OBR’s central economic forecast
Data November 2017 central forecasts
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.19: Economic Outlook
Data 2017-19 UK GDP growth forecasts
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK GDP growth forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK GDP growth revisions
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK GDP level (ABMI)
26
Further reference information • ‘UK National Accounts, The Blue Book’, 2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/compendiu
m/unitedkingdomnationalaccountsthebluebook/2017
Data UK net migration projection
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• UK net migration
Further reference information • UK national population projections, 2016 based
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand
migration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2
016basedstatisticalbulletin
Data UK GDP level forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK GDP level forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.20: Economic Outlook
Data UK consumption growth forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK household consumption growth forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
27
Paragraph 1.21: Economic Outlook
Data UK business investment forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK business investment forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.22: Economic Outlook
Data UK net trade, and contribution to GDP growth, forecasts
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK net trade forecast
• UK GDP growth forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK current account deficit forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK current account deficit forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.23: Economic Outlook
Data ‘Spring Budget 2017’ productivity forecast
28
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• Spring Budget UK productivity forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ March 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK productivity forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK productivity forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.24: Economic Outlook
Data UK equilibrium unemployment rate forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK equilibrium unemployment rate forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK employment and unemployment forecasts
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK employment level forecast
• UK unemployment rate forecast
29
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.25: Economic Outlook
Data UK earnings growth forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK earnings growth forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Data UK real household disposable income (RHDI) per head forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK RHDI per head forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
Paragraph 1.26: Economic Outlook
Data UK consumer price inflation forecast
Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
• UK consumer price inflation forecast
Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
30
Table 1.2: Changes to the OBR forecast for public sector net borrowing since Spring Budget 2017 (£ billion)
Data Changes to the OBR’s forecasts for public sector net borrowing (PSNB) as a
percentage of GDP from 2017-18 to 2021-22
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and HM Treasury calculations
Further reference information • ‘Spring Budget 2017’ is equivalent to ‘March forecast’ in Table 4.40
‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s
‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Total forecast changes since Spring Budget 2017' forecast series (2017-
18 to 2021-22) is the sum of ‘Total changes to underlying forecast’ in
Table 4.8 ‘Sources of change to the receipts forecast since March’,
‘Forecast changes to underlying forecast’ in Table 4.18 ‘Sources of
changes to the spending forecast since March’ and ‘Reclassification of
English HAs’ and ‘Other ONS changes’ in Table 4.40 ‘Changes to public
sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal
outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Receipts forecast’ is equivalent to ‘Total changes to underlying forecast’
in Table 4.8 ‘Sources of change to the receipts forecast since March’ of
the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017;
• ‘Spending forecast’ is equivalent to ‘Forecast changes since March’ in
Table 4.18 ‘Sources of changes to the spending forecast since March’ of
the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017;
• ‘Accounting and classification changes’ is equivalent to ‘Reclassification of
English HAs’ and ‘Other ONS changes’ in Table 4.40 ‘Changes to public
sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal
outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Total effect of government decisions since Spring Budget 2017’ is
equivalent to ‘Total effect of Government decisions’ in Table 4.40
‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since March’ of the OBR’s
‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Total changes since Spring Budget 2017’ is equivalent to ‘Overall change
since March’ in Table 4.40 ‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since
March' of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• ‘Autumn Budget 2017’ is equivalent to ‘November forecast’ in Table 4.40
‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s
‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
31
Table 1.3: Overview of the OBR’s borrowing forecast as a percentage of GDP
Data Outturn data (2016-17) and OBR forecast data (from 2017-18 to 2022-23) for:
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-
23
Cyclically-adjusted public sector net borrowing (CAPSNB) as a percentage of GDP
from 2016-17 to 2022-23
Treaty deficit as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23
Output gap as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23
Total policy decisions as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS), Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
and HM Treasury calculations
• Public sector net norrowing (PSNB) as a percentage of GDP: J5II
• Treaty deficit : -NNBK
• Nominal GDP series: BKTL
Further reference information • Outturn data for public sector net borrowing as a percentage of GDP and
Treaty deficit as a percentage of GDP can be found in the latest ONS
public sector finances release, at:
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public
sectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/october2017
• Forecast data and outturn for cyclically-adjusted public sector net
borrowing (PSNB) as a percentage of GDP is available from the OBR’s
public finances databank (updated for the latest ONS public sector
finances release) at:
• http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/data/
• The nominal GDP series for 2016-17 to 2022-23 is available from the
OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
Table 1.4: Overview of the OBR’s debt forecast as a percentage of GDP
Data Outturn (2016-17) and OBR forecast (from 2017-18 to 2022-23) for:
32
Public sector net debt (PSND) as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23
Public sector net debt excluding Bank of England (PSNB ex BoE) as a percentage of
GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23
Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to
2022-23
Treaty debt as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23
Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Office for Budget Responsibility
(OBR)
• Public sector net debt (PSND) as a percentage of GDP: HF6W
• Public sector net debt (PSND) ex Bank of England as a percentage of GDP:
CPOA
• Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) as a percentage of GDP: CPOE
• Nominal GDP series: BKTL
• Treaty debt: BKPX
Further reference information • Outturn data as a percentage of GDP from 2009-10 to 2016-17 are
available from the latest ONS public sector finances release (21 November
2017), at the link below. For 2016-17, the series used in the table are
different to the latest versions published in ‘Public Sector Finances’ below
as the latter use the OBR spring forecast data for Quarter 3 2017 as
opposed to the forecast published in the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal
outlook’ November 2017:
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public
sectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/october2017
• The GDP data released by the ONS on 29 September 2017 are available
here:
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/qua
rterlynationalaccounts/aprtojun2017
• Information on the ONS’s calculation methodology for PSND as a
percentage of GDP is available at:
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public
sectorfinance/methodologies/theuseofgrossdomesticproductgdpinpublicse
ctorfiscalratiostatistics
• Forecast series (2017-18 to 2022-23) are available from the OBR’s
‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ March 2017
33
Chart 1.5: Cyclically-adjusted public sector net borrowing (CAPSNB)
Data Cyclically-adjusted public sector net borrowing (CAPSNB) outturn, Autumn Budget
2017 forecast and Spring Budget 2017 forecast from 2009-10 to 2022-23.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility
Further reference information • Outturn for cyclically-adjusted aggregates is available from the OBR’s
public finances databank (updated for the latest ONS public sector
finances release) at:
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/data/
• Outturn and forecast series (2016-17 to 2022-23) is available from the
OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
Chart 1.6: Public sector debt
Data Public sector net debt (PSND) as a percentage of GDP from 2009-10 to 2022-23
Public sector net debt ex Bank of England (PSND ex BoE) as a percentage of GDP
from 2009-10 to 2022-23
Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) as a percentage of GDP from 2009-10 to
2022-23
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility and HM
Treasury calculations
• Public sector net debt (% GDP): HF6X
• Public sector net debt excluding Bank of England (% GDP): CPOA
• Public sector net financial liabilities (% GDP): CPOE
Further reference information • Outturn data (2009-10 to 2016-17) can be found in the latest ONS public
sector finances release (21 November 2017), at the link below. For 2016-
17, the series used in the table are different to the latest versions
published in ‘Public Sector Finances’ below as the latter use the OBR
spring forecast data for Quarter 3 2017 as opposed to the forecast
published in the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017:
34
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public
sectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/october2017
• The GDP data released by the ONS on 29 September 2017 are available
here:
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/qua
rterlynationalaccounts/aprtojun2017
• The ONS’s calculation methodology for PSND as a percentage of GDP is
available at:
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public
sectorfinance/methodologies/theuseofgrossdomesticproductgdpinpublicse
ctorfiscalratiostatistics
• Forecast series (2017-18 to 2022-23) are available from the OBR’s
‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017.
Table 1.5: New welfare cap
Data HM Treasury Welfare cap for (2022-23) only
HM Treasury Interim Pathway from 2017-18 to 2021-22
HM Treasury Margin from 2017-18 to 2022-23
Data source • HM Treasury
Table 1.6: Total Managed Expenditure
Data Aggregate figures for public sector current expenditure, public sector gross
investment, and total managed expenditure
Total resource and capital departmental expenditure limits (DELs)
Data source • OBR AME forecasts for 2017-18 to 2022-23 inclusive
• HM Treasury DEL plans for 2017-18 to 2022-23 inclusive.
• OBR forecast of allowance for shortfall in DEL.
• These are not official statistics
Further reference information • OBR ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
35
Table 1.7: Departmental Resource Budgets
Data Resource departmental expenditure limits (RDEL) excluding depreciation
Data source • HMT DEL plans are used for all years
• OBR forecast of allowance for shortfall
• These are not official statistics
Table 1.8: Departmental Capital Budgets
Data Capital departmental expenditure limits (CDEL)
Data source • HMT DEL plans are used for all years
• OBR forecast of allowance for shortfall
• These are not official statistics
Table 1.9: Financial transactions from 2017-18 to 2022-23
Data Financial transactions: impact on central government net cash requirement
Data source • Economic estimates
Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed
costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material
impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics
36
Chapter 2
Policy decisions
Table 2.1: Autumn Budget 2017 policy decisions
Data Costings for all scoring measures at ‘Autumn Budget 2017’
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury policy costings
Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed
costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material
impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics
Table 2.2: Measures announced at Spring Budget 2017 or earlier that will take effect from December 2017 or later
Data Costings for all scoring measures announced at ‘Spring Budget 2017’ or earlier
which take effect from December 2017 or later
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury policy costings
Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed
costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material
impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics
37
Chapter 3
Tax
Paragraph 3.5: Personal Tax
Data The chapter text states that “in 2018-19 a typical taxpayer will pay at least £1,075
less tax than in 2010-11.”
The income tax personal allowance will have increased from £6,475 in 2010-11 to
£11,850 in 2018-19. This means that a typical taxpayer in the basic rate band will
receive £5,375 more of their income tax-free, where previously it would have been
taxed at the basic rate of 20%. This is a cash gain of £1,075 a year. Typical taxpayers
above the higher rate threshold will gain by different amounts, reflecting the
additional impact of changes in the higher rate threshold.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury analysis
38
Chapter 4
Productivity
Paragraph 4.3: Introduction
Data
Closing the gap between the UK’s productivity and Germany’s would increase the
size of the UK economy by a third.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Nominal GDP (YBHA) from ‘Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate:
July to September 2017’, ONS
• Gap with Germany from ‘International Comparisons of UK Productivity,
first estimates: 2016’, ONS
• HMT calculations
• The level of productivity, in terms of GDP per hour, is 35% higher in
Germany than in the UK. The size of the economy (GDP) is equal to
productivity multiplied by total hours worked in the economy - this
statistic assumes that eliminating the productivity gap would translate
one-for-one into an increase in GDP, with no effect on hours worked.
Further reference information • https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro
ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/produc
tivitymeasures/datasets/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfirstestimat
es
Table 4.1: National Productivity Investment Fund
Data HMT spending decisions made at Autumn Statement 2016 and Autumn Budget
2017.
Data source • HMT DEL plans are used for all years.
• These are not official statistics.
39
Paragraph 4.31: Supporting labour market productivity
Data The government will also accept all of the LPC’s recommendations for the other NMW rates to apply from April 2018. For youth rates, this represents the largest increase in 10 years.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury calculations:
• The last effective annual percentage increase in youth rates (the National
Minimum Wage age-related rates, excluding apprentices) of a greater
magnitude than this year’s uprating was in 2008 when the under 18 rate
was increased by 3.8%.
Data In total, earnings for a full-time worker on the National Minimum Wage (NMW) will
have increased by over £2,000 a year since the introduction of the NLW in April
2016.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury calculations:
• A full-time worker is assumed to work 35 hours a week for 52.1 weeks in
a year. The National Minimum Wage was £6.70 when the National Living
Wage was introduced in April 2016, so the April 2018 National Living
Wage rate of £7.83 is an £1.13/hour increase. In total, this marks a
£2,061 increase in earnings per year for a full-time worker on the NLW.
Paragraph 4.41: Infrastructure
Data The government’s plans mean that by the end of the parliament public investment
in economic infrastructure will have doubled in a decade, from £12 billion in 2012-
13 to at least £24 billion in 2022-23, in real terms an increase of more than 60%.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Congestion, Capacity, Carbon – priorities for national infrastructure,
NIC, 2017
• OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• HM Treasury calculations:
• The £24 billion represents 1% of nominal GDP in 2022/23. Using the OBR
GDP deflator forecast, the real value of £24 billion in 2012/13 prices is
24/1.2 = £20 billion. This is equivalent to a 67% increase on 2012-13.
40
Further reference information • https://www.nic.org.uk/publications/congestion-capacity-carbon-priorities-
for-national-infrastructure/
• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/
Paragraph 4.54: Local growth
Data If the UK could increase the productivity of the five biggest city regions outside of
London so that they matched UK average productivity, that could increase UK GDP
by £31 billion a year.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK, ONS, 2017;
• Regional gross value added (income approach), UK: 1997 to 2015;
• HMT calculations:
• Calculated as the increase in UK 2015 Gross Value Added (GVA) if its five
biggest city regions (Greater Manchester Combined Authority, West
Midlands Combined Authority, West Yorkshire Metropolitan County,
Glasgow City Region, and North East Combined Authority) matched the
UK 2015 productivity average of £31.82 per hour worked.
• The latest year for which regional GVA data is available is 2015. In this
year, GVA was estimated at £1.65 trillion. If productivity matched the UK
average: GVA would have been £1.68trillion, £31.0 billion higher.
• The increase in GDP is assumed to be equal to the increase in GVA. It also
assumes no change in hours worked.
Further reference information • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo
urproductivity/articles/regionalandsubregionalproductivityintheuk/jan2017
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva/bulletins/regionalg
rossvalueaddedincomeapproach/december2016
41
Chapter 5
Housing
Paragraph 5.1: Housing
Data Help to Buy (Equity Loan scheme) and Help to Buy: NewBuy statistics: Data to 30
June 2017, England
Help to Buy: ISA scheme Quarterly Statistics: December 2015 to 30 June 2017
Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee scheme Quarterly Statistics: October 2013 to 30
June 2017
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG; HM Treasury
Further reference information • The government has helped over 320,000 people through Help to Buy
schemes
• Since the launch of the Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme (1 April 2013 to
30 June 2017) 134,558 properties were bought with an equity loan.
• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-equity-loan-
scheme-and-help-to-buy-newbuy-statistics-april-2013-to-30-june-2017
• Since the launch of the Help to Buy: ISA, 83,686 property completions
have been supported by the scheme.
• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-isa-scheme-
quarterly-statistics-december-2015-to-30-june-2017
• Since the launch of the Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee, 104,763
mortgages have been completed with the support of the scheme.
• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-mortgage-
guarantee-scheme-quarterly-statistics-october-2013-to-30-june-2017
42
Data ONS ratio of relative affordability
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • ONS
• Ratio of house price to workplace-based earnings.
Further reference information • Ratio of house price to workplace-based earnings.
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/dataset
s/ratioofhousepricetoworkplacebasedearningslowerquartileandmedian
Data English Housing Survey headline report 2015 to 2016
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG
Further reference information • The latest finding from the English Housing Survey on people’s housing
circumstances and the condition and energy efficiency of the English
housing stock.
• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2015-
to-2016-headline-report
Paragraph 5.3: Housing
Data Live tables on housing supply: net additional dwellings
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG
Further reference information • The latest data tables on dwelling stock (including vacants).
• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-
dwelling-stock-including-vacants
Data Housing supply; net additional dwellings, England: 2016-2017
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG
43
Further reference information • Annual housing supply data.
• https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_dat
a/file/659529/Housing_Supply_England_2016-17.pdf
Annex A
Financing
Table A.1: Financing arithmetic in 2017-18
Data Table shows the government’s total cash borrowing requirement, and how we will
source the finance needed to meet this in 2017-18. It is an in-year revision, relative
to ‘Spring Budget 2017’ and April 2017 when 2016-17 numbers were finalised.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • CGNCR-ex: OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• Gilt Redemptions: DMO website
• Planned financing for the reserves: HM Treasury (‘Summer Budget 2015’
and ‘Spring Budget 2017’)
• Financing adjustment: The net financing requirement from the previous
financial year less the total financing from that year
• Contribution from NS&I: NS&I
• Other financing: HM Treasury forecasts
• Financing decisions: HM Treasury policy decision at ‘Autumn Budget
2017’
• DMO net cash position: DMO website
Further reference information • DMO website announcement and further details of 2017-18 remit
revision at ‘Autumn Budget 2017’ will be published at:
• http://www.dmo.gov.uk/index.aspx?page=remit/full_details
44
Table A.2: Illustrative gross financing requirement
Data Table shows the government’s expected cash borrowing requirement over the
forecast period.
Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • CGNCR-ex: OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017
• Gilt redemptions: DMO website
• Planned financing for the reserves: HM Treasury (‘Summer Budget 2015’
and ‘Spring Budget 2017’)
Further reference information • DMO website announcement and further details of 2017-18 Remit
revision at Autumn Budget 2017 will be published at:
• http://www.dmo.gov.uk/index.aspx?page=remit/full_details
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