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Page 1: Autumn Budget 2017 data sources - gov.uk · 2017-11-22 · This document provides details of sources of data in all the tables, charts, and graphs in the Autumn Budget 2017 document

Autumn Budget 2017

data sources

November 2017

Page 2: Autumn Budget 2017 data sources - gov.uk · 2017-11-22 · This document provides details of sources of data in all the tables, charts, and graphs in the Autumn Budget 2017 document
Page 3: Autumn Budget 2017 data sources - gov.uk · 2017-11-22 · This document provides details of sources of data in all the tables, charts, and graphs in the Autumn Budget 2017 document

Autumn Budget 2017 data sources

November 2017

Page 4: Autumn Budget 2017 data sources - gov.uk · 2017-11-22 · This document provides details of sources of data in all the tables, charts, and graphs in the Autumn Budget 2017 document

© Crown copyright 2017

This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except

where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-

government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National

Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected].

Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain

permission from the copyright holders concerned.

This publication is available at www.gov.uk/government/publications

Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at

[email protected]

ISBN 978-1-912225-27-9

PU2112

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Preface

This document provides details of sources of data in all the tables, charts, and

graphs in the Autumn Budget 2017 document. In addition, it includes details of

sources for some data included in the text where, for reasons of space, it has not

been possible to footnote these sources.

The document is aimed at transparently informing readers of the Autumn Budget

2017 document where the data used in the charts, tables, and text comes from and

how it has been calculated.

This document also ensures that the Treasury meets the standards set out by the UK

Statistics Authority to comply with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

In particular, this document aims to meet 2 of the requirements of the UK Statistics

Authority’s ‘Code of Practice for Official Statistics’:

• to distinguish clearly between outturn data that are official statistics, and

other data and estimates that are not official statistics.1 Examples of

estimates that are not official statistics include forecasts, management

information, economic estimates calculated by the Treasury or other

government departments which are constructed using assumptions or

judgements and where the results of economic analyses have a material

effect on the resulting estimate

• for outturn data that are official statistics, to clearly refer to the source of

the statistics and provide a link to the statistical release. Where possible,

the sources that are used and shown are National Statistics2

Full details of sources are only provided for outturn data up to the 2016-17. Data

for future years are forecasts. All of these are outside the domain of official statistics,

as are the estimates of the impacts of government measures or policy decisions, as

these are estimated, rather than measured or compiled using statistical processes.

In many cases, data for 2017-18 onwards are taken from the Office for Budget

Responsibility’s (OBR) ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ (EFO) November 2017. Where

this is the case, it is mentioned in the text or in this document.

1 The ‘official statistics’ label refers to a specified subset of the quantitative information produced by the government and its nominated

agents. Official statistics are produced and published in accordance with provisions set out in the Statistics and Registration Service Act

2007 and in supplementary statistical legislation, and in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

2 The ‘National Statistics’ label applies to a distinct subset of ‘official statistics’ which has been formally certified by the UK Statistics

Authority to be compliant with the professional standards set out in the Code. Public bodies that produce National Statistics have

a statutory duty to continue to comply with the Code.

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Time series for data that are shown with Office for National Statistics (ONS) time

series identifiers codes can be downloaded from the ONS website at:

//www.ons.gov.uk.

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1

Contents

Executive summary 2

Chapter 1 UK economy and public finances 5

Chapter 2 Policy decisions 36

Chapter 3 Tax 37

Chapter 4 Productivity 38

Chapter 5 Housing 41

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2

Executive summary

Table 1: Autumn Budget 2017 policy decisions

Data Costings for all scoring measures at ‘Autumn Budget 2017’

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury policy costings

Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed

costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material

impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics

Chart 1: Public sector spending 2018-19

Data Spending on each of the main functions of government, and Total Managed

Expenditure.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury economic estimates

Further reference information • These figures are calculated as economic estimates, including the effects

of assumptions and results from economic and policy analyses that have a

material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics.

• Spending allocations by function are mainly based on HM Treasury

analyses of 2016-17 departmental outturn submitted on the OSCAR

database. The allocation of spending to functions is largely consistent

with the United Nations’ Classifications of the Functions of Government

(COFOG). Total Managed Expenditure (TME) is presented on a European

System of Accounts 2010 (ESA10) basis and is consistent with the Office

for Budget responsibility (OBR) 2018-19 fiscal forecast.

• The figures for Housing and environment do not include the expenditure

of English Housing Associations. These were reclassified on 16 November

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3

2017 to the private sector. Please see Office for National Statistics

statement:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/statementonclassificat

ionofenglishhousingassociationsnovember2017

• Other expenditure includes general public services (including international

services); plus recreation, culture and religion; plus European Union

transactions.

• Figures may not sum due to rounding.

• The classifications used for these projections are consistent with the

outturn statistics published by HM Treasury in the Public Spending

Statistics, November 2017, available at:

• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-spending-statistics-

release-november-2017

• More information on COFOG is available at:

• https://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcst.asp?Cl=4&Top=1&Lg=1

Chart 2: Public sector current receipts 2018-19

Data Breakdown of ‘Autumn Budget 2017’ forecast of public sector receipts to its

principal contributors

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility

Further reference information • 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from the OBR’s ‘Economic

and fiscal outlook’ November 2017.

• ‘Income tax’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from ‘Income

tax (gross of tax credits)’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the

OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘National Insurance contributions’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast

taken from ‘National insurance contributions’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current

receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Excise duties’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from lines

‘Fuel duties’, ‘Tobacco duties’, ‘Spirits duties’, ‘Wine duties’ and ‘Beer and

cider duties’ from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and

fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Corporation tax’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from

‘Corporation tax’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s

‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

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• ‘VAT’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from lines ‘Value

added tax’ and ‘VAT refunds’ from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the

OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Business rates’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from

‘Business rates’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s

‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Council tax’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from ‘Council

tax’ line from Table 4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and

fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Other taxes’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from ‘National

Accounts taxes’ line after ‘Income tax (gross tax credits)’, ‘National

Insurance contributions’, ‘Value added tax’, ‘Corporation tax’, ‘Fuel

duties’, ‘Business rates’, ‘Council tax’, ‘VAT refunds’, ‘Tobacco duties’,

‘Spirits duties’, ‘Wine duties’ and ‘Beer and cider duties’ lines from Table

4.6 ‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’

November 2017

• ‘Other non-taxes’ 2018-19 Public Sector receipts forecast taken from

‘Current receipts’ line after ‘National Accounts taxes’ from Table 4.6

‘Current receipts’ of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November

2017 have been subtracted.

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5

Chapter 1

UK economy and public finances

Paragraph 1.1

Data UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK quarterly GDP growth (IHYQ)

Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro

ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

Data UK employment level and unemployment rate

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Number of people in employment, aged 16+ (MGRZ)

• Unemployment rate, aged 16+ (MGSX)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Data Income inequality

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

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• Disposable income Gini coefficient

Further reference information • Household income and inequality, 2017, Table 11

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhou

seholdfinances/incomeandwealth/datasets/householddisposableincomean

dinequality

Paragraph 1.2

Data Consumer price inflation

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Total consumer price inflation (D7G7)

Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu

merpriceinflation/october2017

Data Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Real household disposable income per head (CRXX)

Further reference information • Economic well-being, April to June 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhou

seholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/economicwellbeing/apriltojune

2017

Data Business investment growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Gross fixed capital formation: business investment (NPEL)

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Further reference information • ‘UK Economic accounts’, October 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/unit

edkingdomeconomicaccounts

Data Productivity growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)

Further reference information • Labour productivity, April to June 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo

urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017

• UK productivity flash estimate: July to September 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/produc

tivitymeasures/articles/gdpandthelabourmarket/julytoseptember2017

Data Productivity in the advanced economies

Data source • Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

Further reference information • GDP per hour worked, constant prices, G7 countries

• http://stats.oecd.org/

Data UK productivity forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK productivity forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

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Paragraph 1.4: UK Economy

Data UK GDP and GDP per capita growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK annual GDP growth (IHYP)

• UK annual GDP per capita growth (N3Y6)

Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro

ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

Data UK GDP growth revisions

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK GDP growth revisions (KB82)

Further reference information • ‘UK National Accounts, The Blue Book’, 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/compendiu

m/unitedkingdomnationalaccountsthebluebook/2017

Paragraph 1.5: UK Economy

Data UK GDP growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK quarterly GDP growth (IHYQ)

Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro

ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

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Data UK services, production, manufacturing and construction output growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics

• Services output (L2NC)

• Construction output (L2N8)

• Production output (L2KQ)

• Manufacturing output (L2KX)

Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro

ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

Paragraph 1.6: UK Economy

Data Real household consumption growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Real household consumption expenditure (ABJR)

• Real consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving

households (HAYO)

Further reference information • ‘UK economic accounts’, October 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/unit

edkingdomeconomicaccounts

Data Consumer confidence

Data source • GfK (Society for Consumer Research)

Further reference information • GfK consumer confidence index, October 2017

• http://www.gfk.com/en-gb/press-room/press-releases/

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Data Retail sales growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Total retail sales 3-month growth (J5EG)

Further reference information • Retail sales, Great Britain, October 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/r

etailsales/october2017

Paragraph 1.7: UK Economy

Data Business investment growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Gross fixed capital formation: business investment (NPEL)

Further reference information • ‘UK economic accounts’, October 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/unit

edkingdomeconomicaccounts

Data Private business surveys

Data source • Deloitte

• Confederation of British Industry (CBI)

• British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)

• Bank of England

• Manufacturers’ Association (EEF)

Further reference information • Deloitte chief financial officers survey, Q3 2017

• https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-

survey.html

• CBI industrial trends survey, Q3 2017

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• http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-growth-softened-in-three-

months-to-october-quarterly-industrial-trends-survey/

• BCC quarterly economic survey, Q3 2017

• http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/policy-maker/economic-

data/quarterly-economic-survey/

• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, Q3 2017

• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar

y/2017/q3.pdf

• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, November

2017

• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar

y/2017/nov.pdf

• EEF manufacturing outlook, Q3 2017

• https://www.eef.org.uk/about-eef/media-news-and-insights/media-

releases/2017/sep/industry-makes-hay-while-the-sun-shines-as-exports-go-

from-strength-to-strength

Paragraph 1.8: UK Economy

Data Import and export volumes growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Total export volumes (IKBK)

• Total import volumes (IKBL)

Further reference information • UK trade, September 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/b

ulletins/uktrade/september2017

Data Net trade contribution to GDP growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Net trade contribution to quarter-on-year GDP growth (ZZ6D)

Further reference information • UK quarterly national accounts, April to June 2017

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• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/qua

rterlynationalaccounts/aprtojun2017

• UK quarterly national accounts data tables – sheet AB Annex B

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/ukq

uarterlynationalaccountsdatatables

Data Surveys of export orders

Data source • IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS)

• Confederation of British Industry (CBI)

• British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)

• Bank of England

• Manufacturers’ Association (EEF)

Further reference information • IHS Markit/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI, July to October 2017

• https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases

• CBI industrial trends survey, Q3 2017

• http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-growth-softened-in-three-

months-to-october-quarterly-industrial-trends-survey/

• BCC quarterly economic survey, Q3 2017

• http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/policy-maker/economic-

data/quarterly-economic-survey/

• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, Q3 2017

• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar

y/2017/q3.pdf

• Bank of England agents’ summary of business conditions, November

2017

• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummar

y/2017/nov.pdf

• Bank of England inflation report, November 2017

• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/

2017/nov.pdf

• EEF manufacturing outlook, Q3 2017

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• https://www.eef.org.uk/about-eef/media-news-and-insights/media-

releases/2017/sep/industry-makes-hay-while-the-sun-shines-as-exports-go-

from-strength-to-strength

Paragraph 1.9: UK Economy

Data UK current account deficit, investment income deficit and trade deficit, including

revisions

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK current account balance as a percentage of GDP (AA6H)

• Investment income debits (HBOL)

• Investment income credits (HBOK)

• UK trade balance (IKBJ)

Further reference information • Balance of payments, April to June 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/b

ulletins/balanceofpayments/apriltojune2017

• ‘UK Balance of payments, the Pink Book’, 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/b

ulletins/unitedkingdombalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook/2017

Paragraph 1.10: UK Economy

Data Productivity (output per hour) growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)

Further reference information • Labour productivity, April to June 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo

urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017

• UK productivity flash estimate: July to September 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/produc

tivitymeasures/articles/gdpandthelabourmarket/julytoseptember2017

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Data Total hours worked

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Total actual weekly hours worked (YBUS)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Chart 1.1: Employment and unemployment rates since 1975

Data UK unemployment and employment rates since 1975

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Unemployment rate, aged 16+ (MGSX). Number of unemployed people

aged 16+ as a percentage of the economically active population aged

16+ (MGSF). The economically active population is defined as those in

employment plus those who are unemployed.

• Employment rate, aged 16-64 (LF24). Number of people in employment

aged 16-64 as a percentage of the population aged 16-64.

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Paragraph 1.11: UK Economy

Data UK employment level

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Number of people in employment, aged 16+ (MGRZ)

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Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Data Employment rate

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Employment rate, 16-64 (LF24)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Data Unemployment rate

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Unemployment rate, 16 and over (MGSX)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Data Female employment level

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Female employment level, 16 and over (MGSB)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

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Data Full-time employment level

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Full-time employment level (YCBK)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Data Unemployment fall outside London and the South East since 2010

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Spreadsheet HI00: Headline LFS indicators for all regions

• Unemployment level, 16-64, (LF2I) Feb-Apr 2010 to Jul-Sep 2017

Further reference information • Regional labour market statistics in the UK, November 2017, HMT

calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/november2017

Data Number of workless households

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• All workless households

Further reference information • Households by combined activity status of household members, August

2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/datasets/workingandworklesshouseholdstablea

householdsbycombinedeconomicactivitystatusofhouseholdmembers

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Box 1.1: Productivity – a long term challenge

Data UK employment level

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Number of people in employment, aged 16+ (MGRZ)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Data Contribution to UK GDP from employment growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK GDP level (ABMI)

• Total actual weekly hours worked (YBUS)

• Employment level, 16 and over (MGRZ)

Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro

ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

• UK labour market, October 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2017

Data Productivity in OECD countries

Data source • Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

Further reference information • GDP per hour worked, constant prices, OECD countries, HMT calculations

• http://stats.oecd.org/

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Data UK productivity

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)

Further reference information • Labour productivity, April to June 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo

urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017

Chart 1.2: Contributions of productivity and labour to GDP growth

Data Contribution to UK GDP from productivity and labour

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK GDP level (ABMI)

• Total actual weekly hours worked (YBUS)

• Employment level, 16 and over (MGRZ)

• Output per hour, whole economy (LZVB)

Further reference information • UK GDP preliminary estimate, July to September 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro

ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

• UK labour market, November 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

• Labour productivity, April to June 2017, HMT calculations

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo

urproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2017

Chart 1.3: Average annual productivity growth

Data Average productivity growth in the UK, G7 and OECD

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Data source • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Further reference information • OECD, HMT calculations

• Annual growth rate of GDP per hour worked, constant prices.

• Average calculated as arithmetic mean of calendar year growth rates for

each period. OECD average is made up of the average of available

countries in each year.

Paragraph 1.12: UK Economy

Data Total and regular pay growth

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Total pay growth (KAC3)

• Regular pay growth (KAI9)

Further reference information • UK labour market, November 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/empl

oymentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017

Data National Living Wage support of earnings growth for workers in lower paid jobs

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Annual survey of hours and earnings

Further reference information • UK annual survey of hours and earnings, November 2015, HMT analysis

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni

ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2015prov

isionalresults

• UK annual survey of hours and earnings, October 2017, HMT analysis

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni

ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2017prov

isionaland2016revisedresults

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• Gross weekly earnings of full-time employees whose pay period was not

affected by absence were taken at every 5th percentile for 2015 and

2017, with values converted to constant prices using the Consumer Price

Index.

• These values were then used to calculate the real change in gross weekly

earnings across the period.

Data Real wage growth among lowest earners

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Annual survey of hours and earnings

Further reference information • UK annual survey of hours and earnings, November 2015, HMT analysis

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni

ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2015prov

isionalresults

• UK annual survey of hours and earnings, October 2017, HMT analysis

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earni

ngsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2017prov

isionaland2016revisedresults

• Gross weekly earnings of full-time employees whose pay period was not

affected by absence were taken at every 5th percentile for 2015 and

2017, with values converted to constant prices using the Consumer Price

Index.

• The lowest earners were defined as those in the 5th earnings percentile.

• These values were then used to calculate the real change in gross weekly

earnings across the period.

Data Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Real household disposable income per head (CRXX)

Further reference information • Economic well-being, April to June 2017

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• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhou

seholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/economicwellbeing/apriltojune

2017

Paragraph 1.13: UK Economy

Data Sterling depreciation

Data source • Bank of England

• Sterling effective exchange rate index (XUDLBK67)

Further reference information • Bank of England interactive database, November 2017, HMT calculations

• http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/NewInterMed.asp?Travel

=NIxAZxI3xSCxSUx

Data Consumer price inflation

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Total consumer price inflation (D7G7)

• Consumer goods price inflation (D7NM)

• Consumer services price inflation (D7NN)

Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu

merpriceinflation/october2017

Chart 1.4: CPI inflation

Data UK consumer prices index and contributions

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Consumer prices index (D7G7)

• Contributions to CPI by energy and fuel, food and other goods, and

services.

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Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017, HMT analysis

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu

merpriceinflation/october2017

• Contributions to the CPI inflation rate are calculated by HMT using Table

25 (CPI weights) and Table 54 (CPI indices) of the Consumer Price Inflation

dataset published on www.ons.gov.uk.

Paragraph 1.14: UK Economy

Data Consumer price inflation, including housing costs

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Total consumer price inflation including housing costs (L55O)

Further reference information • UK consumer price inflation, October 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consu

merpriceinflation/october2017

Paragraph 1.15: Global Economy

Data G20 GDP growth

Data source • Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

Further reference information • GDP growth, on the same quarter of the previous year, in the G20

countries

• https://data.oecd.org/gdp/quarterly-gdp.htm

Data Global GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

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Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.16: Economic Outlook

Data UK GDP growth and productivity forecasts

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK GDP growth forecast

• UK productivity forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK employment level forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK employment level forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK sustainable unemployment rate and trend employment forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK sustainable unemployment rate forecast

• Equilibrium employment rate forecast

• Potential population forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

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• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.17: Economic Outlook

Data 2017 UK GDP growth forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK GDP growth forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK GDP growth revisions

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK GDP level (ABMI)

Further reference information • ‘UK National Accounts, The Blue Book’, 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/compendiu

m/unitedkingdomnationalaccountsthebluebook/2017

Data UK consumption growth forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK household consumption growth forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK business investment forecast

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Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK business investment forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Table 1.1: Summary of the OBR’s central economic forecast

Data November 2017 central forecasts

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.19: Economic Outlook

Data 2017-19 UK GDP growth forecasts

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK GDP growth forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK GDP growth revisions

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK GDP level (ABMI)

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Further reference information • ‘UK National Accounts, The Blue Book’, 2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/compendiu

m/unitedkingdomnationalaccountsthebluebook/2017

Data UK net migration projection

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• UK net migration

Further reference information • UK national population projections, 2016 based

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand

migration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2

016basedstatisticalbulletin

Data UK GDP level forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK GDP level forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.20: Economic Outlook

Data UK consumption growth forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK household consumption growth forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

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Paragraph 1.21: Economic Outlook

Data UK business investment forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK business investment forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.22: Economic Outlook

Data UK net trade, and contribution to GDP growth, forecasts

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK net trade forecast

• UK GDP growth forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK current account deficit forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK current account deficit forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.23: Economic Outlook

Data ‘Spring Budget 2017’ productivity forecast

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Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• Spring Budget UK productivity forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ March 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK productivity forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK productivity forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.24: Economic Outlook

Data UK equilibrium unemployment rate forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK equilibrium unemployment rate forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK employment and unemployment forecasts

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK employment level forecast

• UK unemployment rate forecast

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Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.25: Economic Outlook

Data UK earnings growth forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK earnings growth forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Data UK real household disposable income (RHDI) per head forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK RHDI per head forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

Paragraph 1.26: Economic Outlook

Data UK consumer price inflation forecast

Data source • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

• UK consumer price inflation forecast

Further reference information • OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk

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Table 1.2: Changes to the OBR forecast for public sector net borrowing since Spring Budget 2017 (£ billion)

Data Changes to the OBR’s forecasts for public sector net borrowing (PSNB) as a

percentage of GDP from 2017-18 to 2021-22

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and HM Treasury calculations

Further reference information • ‘Spring Budget 2017’ is equivalent to ‘March forecast’ in Table 4.40

‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s

‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Total forecast changes since Spring Budget 2017' forecast series (2017-

18 to 2021-22) is the sum of ‘Total changes to underlying forecast’ in

Table 4.8 ‘Sources of change to the receipts forecast since March’,

‘Forecast changes to underlying forecast’ in Table 4.18 ‘Sources of

changes to the spending forecast since March’ and ‘Reclassification of

English HAs’ and ‘Other ONS changes’ in Table 4.40 ‘Changes to public

sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal

outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Receipts forecast’ is equivalent to ‘Total changes to underlying forecast’

in Table 4.8 ‘Sources of change to the receipts forecast since March’ of

the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017;

• ‘Spending forecast’ is equivalent to ‘Forecast changes since March’ in

Table 4.18 ‘Sources of changes to the spending forecast since March’ of

the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017;

• ‘Accounting and classification changes’ is equivalent to ‘Reclassification of

English HAs’ and ‘Other ONS changes’ in Table 4.40 ‘Changes to public

sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal

outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Total effect of government decisions since Spring Budget 2017’ is

equivalent to ‘Total effect of Government decisions’ in Table 4.40

‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since March’ of the OBR’s

‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Total changes since Spring Budget 2017’ is equivalent to ‘Overall change

since March’ in Table 4.40 ‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since

March' of the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• ‘Autumn Budget 2017’ is equivalent to ‘November forecast’ in Table 4.40

‘Changes to public sector net borrowing since March' of the OBR’s

‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

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Table 1.3: Overview of the OBR’s borrowing forecast as a percentage of GDP

Data Outturn data (2016-17) and OBR forecast data (from 2017-18 to 2022-23) for:

Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-

23

Cyclically-adjusted public sector net borrowing (CAPSNB) as a percentage of GDP

from 2016-17 to 2022-23

Treaty deficit as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23

Output gap as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23

Total policy decisions as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS), Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

and HM Treasury calculations

• Public sector net norrowing (PSNB) as a percentage of GDP: J5II

• Treaty deficit : -NNBK

• Nominal GDP series: BKTL

Further reference information • Outturn data for public sector net borrowing as a percentage of GDP and

Treaty deficit as a percentage of GDP can be found in the latest ONS

public sector finances release, at:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public

sectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/october2017

• Forecast data and outturn for cyclically-adjusted public sector net

borrowing (PSNB) as a percentage of GDP is available from the OBR’s

public finances databank (updated for the latest ONS public sector

finances release) at:

• http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/data/

• The nominal GDP series for 2016-17 to 2022-23 is available from the

OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

Table 1.4: Overview of the OBR’s debt forecast as a percentage of GDP

Data Outturn (2016-17) and OBR forecast (from 2017-18 to 2022-23) for:

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Public sector net debt (PSND) as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23

Public sector net debt excluding Bank of England (PSNB ex BoE) as a percentage of

GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23

Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to

2022-23

Treaty debt as a percentage of GDP from 2016-17 to 2022-23

Data source • Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Office for Budget Responsibility

(OBR)

• Public sector net debt (PSND) as a percentage of GDP: HF6W

• Public sector net debt (PSND) ex Bank of England as a percentage of GDP:

CPOA

• Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) as a percentage of GDP: CPOE

• Nominal GDP series: BKTL

• Treaty debt: BKPX

Further reference information • Outturn data as a percentage of GDP from 2009-10 to 2016-17 are

available from the latest ONS public sector finances release (21 November

2017), at the link below. For 2016-17, the series used in the table are

different to the latest versions published in ‘Public Sector Finances’ below

as the latter use the OBR spring forecast data for Quarter 3 2017 as

opposed to the forecast published in the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal

outlook’ November 2017:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public

sectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/october2017

• The GDP data released by the ONS on 29 September 2017 are available

here:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/qua

rterlynationalaccounts/aprtojun2017

• Information on the ONS’s calculation methodology for PSND as a

percentage of GDP is available at:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public

sectorfinance/methodologies/theuseofgrossdomesticproductgdpinpublicse

ctorfiscalratiostatistics

• Forecast series (2017-18 to 2022-23) are available from the OBR’s

‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ March 2017

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Chart 1.5: Cyclically-adjusted public sector net borrowing (CAPSNB)

Data Cyclically-adjusted public sector net borrowing (CAPSNB) outturn, Autumn Budget

2017 forecast and Spring Budget 2017 forecast from 2009-10 to 2022-23.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for Budget Responsibility

Further reference information • Outturn for cyclically-adjusted aggregates is available from the OBR’s

public finances databank (updated for the latest ONS public sector

finances release) at:

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/data/

• Outturn and forecast series (2016-17 to 2022-23) is available from the

OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

Chart 1.6: Public sector debt

Data Public sector net debt (PSND) as a percentage of GDP from 2009-10 to 2022-23

Public sector net debt ex Bank of England (PSND ex BoE) as a percentage of GDP

from 2009-10 to 2022-23

Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) as a percentage of GDP from 2009-10 to

2022-23

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility and HM

Treasury calculations

• Public sector net debt (% GDP): HF6X

• Public sector net debt excluding Bank of England (% GDP): CPOA

• Public sector net financial liabilities (% GDP): CPOE

Further reference information • Outturn data (2009-10 to 2016-17) can be found in the latest ONS public

sector finances release (21 November 2017), at the link below. For 2016-

17, the series used in the table are different to the latest versions

published in ‘Public Sector Finances’ below as the latter use the OBR

spring forecast data for Quarter 3 2017 as opposed to the forecast

published in the OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017:

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• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public

sectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/october2017

• The GDP data released by the ONS on 29 September 2017 are available

here:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/qua

rterlynationalaccounts/aprtojun2017

• The ONS’s calculation methodology for PSND as a percentage of GDP is

available at:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/public

sectorfinance/methodologies/theuseofgrossdomesticproductgdpinpublicse

ctorfiscalratiostatistics

• Forecast series (2017-18 to 2022-23) are available from the OBR’s

‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017.

Table 1.5: New welfare cap

Data HM Treasury Welfare cap for (2022-23) only

HM Treasury Interim Pathway from 2017-18 to 2021-22

HM Treasury Margin from 2017-18 to 2022-23

Data source • HM Treasury

Table 1.6: Total Managed Expenditure

Data Aggregate figures for public sector current expenditure, public sector gross

investment, and total managed expenditure

Total resource and capital departmental expenditure limits (DELs)

Data source • OBR AME forecasts for 2017-18 to 2022-23 inclusive

• HM Treasury DEL plans for 2017-18 to 2022-23 inclusive.

• OBR forecast of allowance for shortfall in DEL.

• These are not official statistics

Further reference information • OBR ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

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Table 1.7: Departmental Resource Budgets

Data Resource departmental expenditure limits (RDEL) excluding depreciation

Data source • HMT DEL plans are used for all years

• OBR forecast of allowance for shortfall

• These are not official statistics

Table 1.8: Departmental Capital Budgets

Data Capital departmental expenditure limits (CDEL)

Data source • HMT DEL plans are used for all years

• OBR forecast of allowance for shortfall

• These are not official statistics

Table 1.9: Financial transactions from 2017-18 to 2022-23

Data Financial transactions: impact on central government net cash requirement

Data source • Economic estimates

Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed

costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material

impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics

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Chapter 2

Policy decisions

Table 2.1: Autumn Budget 2017 policy decisions

Data Costings for all scoring measures at ‘Autumn Budget 2017’

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury policy costings

Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed

costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material

impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics

Table 2.2: Measures announced at Spring Budget 2017 or earlier that will take effect from December 2017 or later

Data Costings for all scoring measures announced at ‘Spring Budget 2017’ or earlier

which take effect from December 2017 or later

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury policy costings

Further reference information • These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed

costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material

impact; they are therefore outside the domain of official statistics

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Chapter 3

Tax

Paragraph 3.5: Personal Tax

Data The chapter text states that “in 2018-19 a typical taxpayer will pay at least £1,075

less tax than in 2010-11.”

The income tax personal allowance will have increased from £6,475 in 2010-11 to

£11,850 in 2018-19. This means that a typical taxpayer in the basic rate band will

receive £5,375 more of their income tax-free, where previously it would have been

taxed at the basic rate of 20%. This is a cash gain of £1,075 a year. Typical taxpayers

above the higher rate threshold will gain by different amounts, reflecting the

additional impact of changes in the higher rate threshold.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury analysis

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Chapter 4

Productivity

Paragraph 4.3: Introduction

Data

Closing the gap between the UK’s productivity and Germany’s would increase the

size of the UK economy by a third.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Nominal GDP (YBHA) from ‘Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate:

July to September 2017’, ONS

• Gap with Germany from ‘International Comparisons of UK Productivity,

first estimates: 2016’, ONS

• HMT calculations

• The level of productivity, in terms of GDP per hour, is 35% higher in

Germany than in the UK. The size of the economy (GDP) is equal to

productivity multiplied by total hours worked in the economy - this

statistic assumes that eliminating the productivity gap would translate

one-for-one into an increase in GDP, with no effect on hours worked.

Further reference information • https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gro

ssdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/produc

tivitymeasures/datasets/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfirstestimat

es

Table 4.1: National Productivity Investment Fund

Data HMT spending decisions made at Autumn Statement 2016 and Autumn Budget

2017.

Data source • HMT DEL plans are used for all years.

• These are not official statistics.

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Paragraph 4.31: Supporting labour market productivity

Data The government will also accept all of the LPC’s recommendations for the other NMW rates to apply from April 2018. For youth rates, this represents the largest increase in 10 years.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury calculations:

• The last effective annual percentage increase in youth rates (the National

Minimum Wage age-related rates, excluding apprentices) of a greater

magnitude than this year’s uprating was in 2008 when the under 18 rate

was increased by 3.8%.

Data In total, earnings for a full-time worker on the National Minimum Wage (NMW) will

have increased by over £2,000 a year since the introduction of the NLW in April

2016.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • HM Treasury calculations:

• A full-time worker is assumed to work 35 hours a week for 52.1 weeks in

a year. The National Minimum Wage was £6.70 when the National Living

Wage was introduced in April 2016, so the April 2018 National Living

Wage rate of £7.83 is an £1.13/hour increase. In total, this marks a

£2,061 increase in earnings per year for a full-time worker on the NLW.

Paragraph 4.41: Infrastructure

Data The government’s plans mean that by the end of the parliament public investment

in economic infrastructure will have doubled in a decade, from £12 billion in 2012-

13 to at least £24 billion in 2022-23, in real terms an increase of more than 60%.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Congestion, Capacity, Carbon – priorities for national infrastructure,

NIC, 2017

• OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• HM Treasury calculations:

• The £24 billion represents 1% of nominal GDP in 2022/23. Using the OBR

GDP deflator forecast, the real value of £24 billion in 2012/13 prices is

24/1.2 = £20 billion. This is equivalent to a 67% increase on 2012-13.

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Further reference information • https://www.nic.org.uk/publications/congestion-capacity-carbon-priorities-

for-national-infrastructure/

• http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/

Paragraph 4.54: Local growth

Data If the UK could increase the productivity of the five biggest city regions outside of

London so that they matched UK average productivity, that could increase UK GDP

by £31 billion a year.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK, ONS, 2017;

• Regional gross value added (income approach), UK: 1997 to 2015;

• HMT calculations:

• Calculated as the increase in UK 2015 Gross Value Added (GVA) if its five

biggest city regions (Greater Manchester Combined Authority, West

Midlands Combined Authority, West Yorkshire Metropolitan County,

Glasgow City Region, and North East Combined Authority) matched the

UK 2015 productivity average of £31.82 per hour worked.

• The latest year for which regional GVA data is available is 2015. In this

year, GVA was estimated at £1.65 trillion. If productivity matched the UK

average: GVA would have been £1.68trillion, £31.0 billion higher.

• The increase in GDP is assumed to be equal to the increase in GVA. It also

assumes no change in hours worked.

Further reference information • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labo

urproductivity/articles/regionalandsubregionalproductivityintheuk/jan2017

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva/bulletins/regionalg

rossvalueaddedincomeapproach/december2016

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Chapter 5

Housing

Paragraph 5.1: Housing

Data Help to Buy (Equity Loan scheme) and Help to Buy: NewBuy statistics: Data to 30

June 2017, England

Help to Buy: ISA scheme Quarterly Statistics: December 2015 to 30 June 2017

Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee scheme Quarterly Statistics: October 2013 to 30

June 2017

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG; HM Treasury

Further reference information • The government has helped over 320,000 people through Help to Buy

schemes

• Since the launch of the Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme (1 April 2013 to

30 June 2017) 134,558 properties were bought with an equity loan.

• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-equity-loan-

scheme-and-help-to-buy-newbuy-statistics-april-2013-to-30-june-2017

• Since the launch of the Help to Buy: ISA, 83,686 property completions

have been supported by the scheme.

• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-isa-scheme-

quarterly-statistics-december-2015-to-30-june-2017

• Since the launch of the Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee, 104,763

mortgages have been completed with the support of the scheme.

• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-mortgage-

guarantee-scheme-quarterly-statistics-october-2013-to-30-june-2017

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Data ONS ratio of relative affordability

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • ONS

• Ratio of house price to workplace-based earnings.

Further reference information • Ratio of house price to workplace-based earnings.

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/dataset

s/ratioofhousepricetoworkplacebasedearningslowerquartileandmedian

Data English Housing Survey headline report 2015 to 2016

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG

Further reference information • The latest finding from the English Housing Survey on people’s housing

circumstances and the condition and energy efficiency of the English

housing stock.

• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2015-

to-2016-headline-report

Paragraph 5.3: Housing

Data Live tables on housing supply: net additional dwellings

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG

Further reference information • The latest data tables on dwelling stock (including vacants).

• https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-

dwelling-stock-including-vacants

Data Housing supply; net additional dwellings, England: 2016-2017

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • DCLG

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Further reference information • Annual housing supply data.

• https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_dat

a/file/659529/Housing_Supply_England_2016-17.pdf

Annex A

Financing

Table A.1: Financing arithmetic in 2017-18

Data Table shows the government’s total cash borrowing requirement, and how we will

source the finance needed to meet this in 2017-18. It is an in-year revision, relative

to ‘Spring Budget 2017’ and April 2017 when 2016-17 numbers were finalised.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • CGNCR-ex: OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• Gilt Redemptions: DMO website

• Planned financing for the reserves: HM Treasury (‘Summer Budget 2015’

and ‘Spring Budget 2017’)

• Financing adjustment: The net financing requirement from the previous

financial year less the total financing from that year

• Contribution from NS&I: NS&I

• Other financing: HM Treasury forecasts

• Financing decisions: HM Treasury policy decision at ‘Autumn Budget

2017’

• DMO net cash position: DMO website

Further reference information • DMO website announcement and further details of 2017-18 remit

revision at ‘Autumn Budget 2017’ will be published at:

• http://www.dmo.gov.uk/index.aspx?page=remit/full_details

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Table A.2: Illustrative gross financing requirement

Data Table shows the government’s expected cash borrowing requirement over the

forecast period.

Data source, including ONS source code if applicable • CGNCR-ex: OBR’s ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ November 2017

• Gilt redemptions: DMO website

• Planned financing for the reserves: HM Treasury (‘Summer Budget 2015’

and ‘Spring Budget 2017’)

Further reference information • DMO website announcement and further details of 2017-18 Remit

revision at Autumn Budget 2017 will be published at:

• http://www.dmo.gov.uk/index.aspx?page=remit/full_details

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