automotive megatrends magazine q3 2015 website

8/18/2019 Automotive Megatrends Magazine Q3 2015 Website

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The Safety Issue#ConnectedCar #eMobility #FreightEfficiency

#Manufacturing&Materials #PowertrainInnovation #Retail(R)evolution+

AUTOMOTIVE MEGATRENDSMagazine | Q3 2015


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Welcome to Automotive Megatrends Magazine - the only global publication dedicated to the business

models, technologies and trends which are shaping the automotive industry of tomorrow.

Welcome to Megatrends Q3 2015

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Every quarter, Automotive Megatrends Magazine is sent to 20,000+ opted-in automotive industry

stakeholders:

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& MaterialsPowertrainInnovation

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Welcome

The publication is downloaded in more than 150 countries worldwide:

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

ISSN: 2053 776X

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Automotive Megatrends Ltd

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Editor:

Martin Kahl

Business Editor:

Megan Lampinen

Manufacturing & Materials

Xavier Boucherat

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Cover image courtesy of: Honda R&D

Americas Inc. / 3DEXCITE © A u t o m o t i v e M e g a

t r e n d s L t d


4/84| Megatrends automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Contents

Th e Sa f e t y Issu e

#Connec tedCar #eMobili t y

#Freigh tE f ficienc y

#Manu fac turing&Ma terials #

Po wer trainInno va tion #Re ta

il(R )e volu tion

+

AU TOMO TI VE MEGA TREND

S

Magazine | Q3 2015

Image courte sy o f: Honda

R&D A mer icas Inc./ 3DEX

CITE

> About this issue

Some of the greatest advances inautomotive technology have been in

the area of safety. The goal now is tonot only prevent deaths or eveninjury to vehicle occupants and roadusers, but to prevent any collision atall.

Sadly, safety technology tmentvaries by region, and the calls aregrowing louder for global OEMs todeliver vehicles in emerging marketsthat are as safe as those they sell inNorth America, Europe and Japan.

This issue of Megatrends magazine– the Safety Issue – focuses on theshift from human-driven cars totechnologically-assisted driving, withsemi and fully autonomous carsusing the same technology that wasdeveloped to mitigate collisions inthe rst place.

Enjoy the magazine and join thedebate:

Martin Kahl, Editor

Contents

8 - The car crash of the future

Andrew Miller, Chief Technical Officer at Thatcham Research in the UK, looks

from an insurance industry perspective at the inuencing factors and implications

in a future where increasing numbers of autonomous and assisted vehicles will be

interacting with ‘driven’ carst

20 - Emerging markets are taking vehicle

safety seriously (at least on paper!)China has shown immense progress in adopting car safety standards, but other

developing countries, such as Mexico, India, and Brazil, lie far behind. Indraneel

Bardhan of EOS Intelligence, takes a closer look

> Safety

24 27The future of truck safety lies in

technology

CV safety focus shifts to collision

avoidance

12 18From physical to virtual: will

technology see the end of the

traditional crash test?

Safety in emerging markets – a long

way to go


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Contents

> Connected Vehicles

38Level up: gamers shaping the

automotive landscape

35Watch out, remote-controlled cars

about!

30 - Is the auto industry sleeping through thecyber security nightmare?

As cyber attacks move from potential threat to reality, Rachel Boagey asks

whether the automotive industry has done enough to secure the connected car

against future cyber crime

Megatrends | 5automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

> eMobility

40 - In the auto industry of the future, is there space for new EVmanufacturers?

Megatrends looks at some of the start-up companies seeking to change the face of the EV segment

44 E-mobility and the untapped potential of emerging markets 47 The battery-powered home: Charging where it matters


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Contents

| Megatrends automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

> Manufacturing & Materials

> Powertrain Innovation

50 - What future for CNG passenger vehicles?

Following Honda’s plan to phase out its CNG programme in the US market, Megatrends spoke to CNG experts to ask if the

fuel has a future in passenger vehicles

60Could the auto industry warm to the

open source car?

54 Complexity and the IC powertrain - is there a solution?

62Ford focuses on increasing

manufacturing safety through

virtualisation

58 - Contract manufacturing: quick x, orgrowth opportunity?

Freddie Holmes investigates the prospects for contract manufacturing in

emerging markets

56Interview: Gian Maria Olivetti, Chief Technology Officer,

Federal-Mogul Powertrain


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Contents


> Retail (R)evolution

75 - Volvo Trucks underlines its commitment to HVO

Volvo Trucks is gearing up to ensure its Euro VI engines support hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO)

64 - 4S and beyond: reshaping China’s retail landscape

Megan Lampinen looks at the development of the 4S dealership model in China

78 ‘No quantum leap’ in the move toward driverless trucks 82 GHG Phase II paves the way for HD WHR

> Freight Efficiency

66Embrace digitisation to rediscover

the art of customer service 72‘Tech heavy, asset light’ - the future

of automotive retail?70Going omni-channel: An automotive

challenge


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Safety

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

The increasing level of autonomy ofvehicle systems such as steeringand speed control and greaterconnectivity between vehicles isalready bringing signicant newchallenges across many areas of theautomotive industry.

The accurate assessment of likely risksin a populated road environment is notonly essential to keep insurancepremiums competitive for the consumer,but to ensure that appropriate long termplanning decisions are taken bylegislators, vehicle manufacturers andrepairers. So it’s no surprise that theinsurance industry is at the forefront ofactions to better understand future trafficscenarios.

The rate at which autonomoustechnology arrives on the highway willbe inuenced by the legislative

environment in each individual market.For example, the legal framework in theUK is quite favourable because it isbased upon the precept - common law- that something is ‘legal’ unlessspecically prohibited. Many othermarkets are governed by the oppositeargument and require speciclegislation in order to enable theapplication and use of the newtechnology. By producing reliablesimulation data to demonstrate thelikely impact of introducing greaterlevels of autonomous functionality, wecan help policy makers to prioritiseappropriate legislation that will support,rather than obstruct, the efforts of theautomotive industry.

It has been suggested that thetechnical challenges of autonomousvehicles, interconnected andcommunicating with each other, are

easier to address when the entirevehicle population is autonomous, thanduring the transition when they mustco-exist with manual vehicles. This maybe so but, from a risk perspective, wealready share the highway with driversof mixed abilities who often behaveunpredictably. Every autonomousvehicle that enters service displaces amanually driven one, replacing ahuman driver who may be distracted,tired or in a hurry with a machine thatwill always prioritise safety whenmaking decisions. This means thateven during the transition phase whenthe vehicle population is mixed,autonomous vehicles are likely tocontribute to improved road safety byincrementally reducing risk. There arealso as yet unknown risks which maybecome apparent when the driven eetinteracts with the driverless. It isimpossible to predict or model these,the best we can do is to reduce theestimate of the potential road safetybenets to factor for these. However,given the relatively poor competence ofhuman drivers, we should not besurprised if these do not materialise!

At Thatcham Research – the motorinsurers’ vehicle research centre in theUK, usually referred to simply as‘Thatcham’ – we have begun a long-term modelling project to examine howthe imminent arrival of digitaltechnologies will affect the types ofaccidents that occur, their frequencyand severity. The initial indications fromthis ‘Claim of the Future’ study arehighly encouraging, suggesting apositive effect on safety, increasedpersonal mobility and even a potentialincrease in national GDP by reducing

The car crash of the future Andrew Miller, Chief Technical Officer at Thatcham Research in the UK, looks

from an insurance industry perspective at the influencing factors and implications

in a future where increasing numbers of autonomous and assisted vehicles will

be interacting with ‘driven’ cars

| Megatrends


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the direct and indirect costs associatedwith vehicle collisions. Interestingly, thisis supported by a recent report fromKPMG which identied that the overalleconomic and social benet ofconnected and autonomous vehicles inthe UK alone could be in the region of£51bn (US$80bn) per year by 2030.

That’s only 15 years hence, and reectsthe growing realisation thatautonomous control is no longer adistant prospect. Lane keeping andintelligent speed control are alreadywith us on the highway, while in the cityassisted braking and guided parkingare becoming common options: BMWrecently demonstrated its Remote ValetParking Assistant that enables parkingwhile the driver is outside the vehicle,using a smart phone app; other vehiclemanufacturers are championing similartechnologies.

The next steps are to begin linkingthese relatively safe and easilymanaged functions into a wider self-driving capability. Insurers, who chargethe individual consumer a few hundreddollars to cover a risk that could runinto millions, traditionally manage theirnancial exposure by consideration ofthe vehicle type and driver prole whencalculating premiums. The newtechnologies are many generations onfrom simple warning alerts and havethe clear potential to reduce the threatposed by inattentive, incompetent oraggressive drivers. Unsurprisingly, theycould also help neutralise the dangers

from inappropriate use of excessivespeed in high performance vehicles.

The effect on the repair industry is likelyto reect fewer collisions, thanks tobetter collision avoidance, but anincrease in the complexity of the repairprocess. On a highly digitised vehicle,this will entail management of anumber of interacting electronicsystems and thorough re-validationbefore returning a repaired vehicle tothe customer. While the physicalvolume of repair work is likely to bemuch reduced, the level of skill andfacilities required to ensure asatisfactory repair will be much wider,and the total value in the repair chainmay not reduce proportionately with thereduction in crash frequency which is

promised by the autonomous vehicletechnologies.

Another issue that is frequentlydiscussed concerns legal liabilityfollowing a collision involving anautonomous vehicle. We already havesituations where the manufacturer of avehicle or a system which malfunctionscan be held legally responsible, sowhat’s the difference? The high levelsof connectivity associated withautonomous operation mean we willhave unprecedented amounts of dataavailable, making it easier than everbefore to analyse events leading up toa collision and apportion appropriateliability – and some of the current roadtesting strategies include makingprovision of telematics data a


Safety


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Safety

requirement for highly and fullyautonomous vehicles.

Of course, the unprecedented quantityof data will require equallyunprecedented system capacity tocommunicate it all, and this couldcertainly limit the rate at whichautonomous vehicles can beintroduced. At present, 3G networkcoverage is variable; in the future weare going to need 4G or 5G to providethe necessary level of connectivity. Thetelecoms providers need reliableforecasts of likely future demand in

order to support timely investmentdecisions; otherwise, the mobility of anentire region could be affected.Governments must urgently review this

in their future considerations of the roll-out of these technologies.

In predicting demand, the informationgenerated by organisations likeThatcham helps provide usefulsupporting data, but ultimately thereaction of the consumer will always betough to predict; as the saying oftenattributed to Henry Ford goes, “If I’dasked what my customers wanted,they’d have told me ‘a faster horse’”. Wein the automotive industry may well besurprised at the rate of growth,because this new dimension in

personal mobility has appeal for all agegroups. Older customers withdiminishing competence canrediscover the freedom of independent

travel without the stress; youngerpeople who may opt to forgo driving ifit curtails their connectivity with otherswill no longer have to make the choicebetween one or the other.

On the other hand, consumercondence in new technology can befragile. A recent poll found that manyadults who expressed a willingness totravel in an autonomous vehicle wereless enthusiastic when asked if theywould let their children travel in one.Faced with such conicting indicators,the greater the amount of reliable

information we can share, the betterwill be the quality of our long- termplanning. The revolution is here – let’sbe ready for it.

0 | Megatrends automotiveworld.com/megatrends/


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Structural design and safety systemsprotect vehicle occupants in theevent of a crash. But only independentcrash tests under controlled conditionscan differentiate one car from anotherand determine just how well a carperforms under crash conditions.

As part of its New Car AssessmentProgramme (NCAP) in the US, theNational Highway Traffic SafetyAdministration (NHTSA) scores carsusing a scale of one to ve stars; thehigher the number of stars, the lesserthe likelihood of injury or death. TheInsurance Institute for Highway Safety(IIHS) uses a four-level scale: Poor,

2 | Megatrends

From physical to virtual: will

technology see the end of thetraditional crash test?

Physical crash tests historically separate the safe cars from the unsafe, but all

aspects of crash testing – including the dummies themselves – are now migrating

from physical to virtual reality

By Rachel Boagey

Safety

Preparation for a crash test



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Safety

Marginal, Acceptable, and Good. InEurope, China and Latin America,NCAP also scores cars on a scale ofone to ve stars. But in the face ofvirtual simulation, these traditional

crash testing methods may be underthreat of going the way of so manyother traditions.

IIHS tests evaluate two aspects ofsafety: crashworthiness - that is, howwell a vehicle protects its occupants ina crash; and crash avoidance andmitigation – namely the technology thatcan prevent a crash or lessen itsseverity. Asked about virtual crashtesting, Russ Rader, Senior VicePresident, Communications at the IIHS,

told Megatrends he believes that thetests conducted by the organisation willremain in the physical realm.

“We don’t see virtual crash testschanging or replacing the laboratorycrash tests we conduct at IIHS,” heobserved. “Computer simulations helpautomotive engineers design newvehicles without having to crash realcars over and over. They won’t changethe crash tests conducted by IIHS,which are designed to explicitly

demonstrate for consumers thedifferences in how vehicles wouldprotect them and their families in thereal world. We need to conduct tests ofreal vehicles in order to do that.”

General Motors says it uses simulatedcrash tests to help it build safer cars.While a few decades ago, OEMs mightneed to crash over a hundred carsduring the design of a single model,now, thanks to computer-aidedengineering, its engineers can crash a

fraction of that number, all whiledesigning new, safer models muchquicker and more cheaply. John Capp,Director of Global Safety Strategy andVehicle Programmes at GM explainedto Megatrends, “Simulated crash testsallow us to learn earlier in the design

process before the hardware isavailable and built, and also optimisethe performance across a broad rangeof test conditions.”

Eight decades after GM engineersdeveloped the rst barrier crash test,physical crash testing continues toprovide engineers with great insight intohow vehicles perform under crashconditions. But it takes time. “There’sstill a place for physical crash tests, for

example to validate the models, conrmthe performance, or in cases where thesimulation capability is still evolving.”

Asked if the virtual crash testingmethod may dispel physical crashtesting, however, Capp observed,

“Perhaps someday, but some physicalcrash tests are still needed as not allsimulations can capture everything thathappens in a crash test or that an ATD(Anthropomorphic Test Dummy) canmeasure. We use both simulation andphysical crash testing to develop oursystems.”

The end of the physical dummy?

The possibility of virtualisation extends

beyond the crash test into multipleareas such as the dummies used in thecurrent physical tests.

Studies show that roughly half ofdrivers take defensive action, such assudden braking or steering, to avoid


In May 2015, Daimler announced a triple-digit million euroinvestment in “the world’s most advanced crash testfacility” at Sindelngen in Germany. Despite usingsimulation for much of its safety development – includingaround 15,000 realistic crash test simulations for a newmodel – the OEM continues to place signicant value onreal life crash tests. The new 270m x 170m facility isscheduled to begin crash testing in autumn 2016. “Evenin the age of computer simulation, crash tests remainindispensable, guaranteeing the high standards ofpassive safety in our vehicles” - Thomas Merker, Directorfor Body and Safety, Mercedes-Benz Cars Development

MERCEDES-BENZ AND THE WORLD’S WORST MOST ADVANCED CRASH TEST CENTER

Virtual crash test of S40 in 2006 - frontal impact, 55 mph


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Safety

collisions, with vehicle occupantscommonly bracing themselves at thesame time. Occupant posture - whetherbraced or relaxed - has a signicanteffect on body movement during acollision. However, the dummiescurrently used in virtual crashsimulations are unable to simulate the

reexive defensive actions that humanstake in the moments before animminent collision, such as bracingone’s body for impact.

For this reason, crash test dummiesare at the core of car safety research,and along with the possibility ofphysical crash tests giving way to thevirtual, we may also be about towitness the last generation of physicalcrash test dummies. Toyota veryrecently showcased its latest crash

dummies – THUMS 5 – capable ofreplicating human behaviour before acrash, and now, research into virtualcrash dummies is the largestcoordinated effort in car safety.

A physical crash dummy effectivelyacts like an airliner’s black boxrecorder, recording data and in thiscase registering impact forcesduring a crash. Manish Menon,Research Analyst at Frost &Sullivan, suggests that a physical

crash dummy cannot currentlyassess danger and thereforereplicate a human occupant’sbehaviour. “Virtual crash testdummies from now will becapable of replicating pre-collision human reactions,”Menon notes. “The musclemodelling feature simulates thebody attitude of the vehicle occupantfrom relaxed to braced, therebyallowing for a more detailed computergenerated analysis of post-crash

injuries. This allows for accurate studyof the performance of seatbelts, airbagsand other passive safety equipmentduring a collision. This difference alonesignals that the end for the physical testdummies is near.”

Menon notes that OEMs might look atcompletely eliminating the use ofphysical test dummies in favour ofvirtual dummies. “On the safety side,the virtual test dummies offerunparalleled advantages, from

accurately modelling pre-collisionhuman movements to various otherparameters such as muscle tensionwhile pre-braking.”

Apart from accurately determining pre-crash human behaviour, such as


Could it be curtains for the crash test dummy?


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Safety

muscle tension while pre-braking, whatinterests OEMs the most about virtualtest dummies is the potential to savecost and time, says Menon. “At present,a single state-of-the-art crash dummywill cost an OEM between US$50,000to US$600,000 when all the electronicsare accounted for. The whole process of

crash-testing itself is expensive, withestimates of many thousands of dollarsfor a vehicle prototype.” By using virtualtest dummies, OEMs can signicantlycut down not only cost but alsoseveral months of

lead time. “OEMs have drasticallyincreased the number of virtual tests ona component level for safety. Using avirtual dummy to verify these tests willnot only reduce costs but also saveOEMs development time.”

GM’s Capp notes that simulating the

human body in a crash is challenging,but has been taken on by a consortiaof OEMs and researchers for anumber of years. “It involves physicaltesting, simulating and medicalknowledge to try to capture theimportant aspects of the behaviour of

a human.”

Not so fast!

A closer inspection of the issue athand, however, reveals creases thatneed ironing out before physical crashdummies can be completely replacedby their virtual cousins. “The virtualhuman body is too complex to be

incorporated into a physical crash testdummy. Therefore it becomesimperative to verify the algorithmagainst all possible human behaviour just before a collision,” states Menon.Modelling the human brain might thenbe the biggest challenge, as each brainreacts differently to a particularsituation. “To effectively use thesesophisticated human representativeswould require more effort than merelycalibrating software for linearprogression,” he says.

Menon continues, “Physical dummieswill continue to be relevant for theforeseeable future, continuing to dowhat they were introduced for –logging data.” And he sees animportant future for physical crashdummies: “In future, the physical testdummies can be used to gauge theoccupant interaction with different

safety systems at the very startof vehicle design. Then the

virtual crash dummies cantake over to investigate

occupant percentilevariations, age

variations, gendervariations, children

variation, obesity(BMI)

variations,

Honda R&D Americas uses a module of the 3D visualisation software3DEXCITE DELTAGEN called DELTAGEN REAL IMPACT, a plug-in co-developed with Dassault Systèmes´ brand 3DEXCITE. Honda’s NorthAmerican R&D arm’s previous work with DELTAGEN inspired the integrationof that visualisation software into Honda's LS-DYNA CAE simulation tool. Theresulting DELTAGEN REAL IMPACT enables the OEM´s engineers to createhighly-realistic 3D renderings of crash events. The results serve as the basisfor testing and analysing different designs with greater speed and efficiency


I m a g e s o ur c e: H on d aR & D

A m er i c a s I n c. / 3 DE X

C I T E

HONDA AND PHOTOREALISTIC CRASH TEST VIRTUALISATION


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Safety

and muscle tension in pre-braking, forexample. Finally, the physical testdummy can validate and further ne-tune the human-vehicle interaction.”

While the world of vehicle safetyengineering may not be ready to giveup the crash test dummy in favour ofthe human computer model just yet,much work is being done in this area.Dr. Christophe Bastien, PrincipleLecturer in Engineer Simulations atCoventry University in the UK spoke toMegatrends about the potential for thefuture crash test dummy to lie in thevirtual rather than the physical world.

Bastien, who has spent his career

working in occupant safety, noted thatthanks to crash test dummies, thelevel of fatalities on the road in the last30 years has improved greatly, andsuggested that we need crash testdummies to provide pointers toengineers to design safer vehiclestructures. Bastien agrees with thenotion that crash test dummies aremerely machines which recordacceleration, displacement and

forces. “These metrics are linked withinjury criteria which are used to

predict, statistically, r isks of injuries.As a crash test dummy needs to beused many times, it has to berepeatable and unbreakable, which iscontradictory to a human being.”Dummies are not surrogates forhuman beings, and some metrics inthe crash test dummies are stilldeliberated, he noted: “The sentimentto use these metrics goes in the rightdirection for safety: they are practical

to measure and to engineer.Nevertheless, this is still

unsatisfactory: only human modelscan answer trauma injuries.”

The future may well see OEMs andsuppliers adopting virtual crash testsusing virtual crash test dummies, butthe automotive industry seemsunprepared at this stage to do this atthe expense of physical crash tests.Nonetheless, maybe virtualisation, inreality, isn’t as far away as we think.

THUMS 5 is the latest version of Toyota’s Total Human Modelfor Safety (THUMS) virtual human model software. THUMS5 can simulate a variety of states from relaxed to braced, thusenabling more detailed computer analysis of injuries causedby collisions. Vehicle occupants commonly brace themselveswhilst taking defensive action – sudden braking, steering etc– to avoid collisions. An occupant’s posture – whether bracedor relaxed – has a signicant effect on body movementduring a collision, something that cannot be replicated bycurrent ATDs. Toyota has added a new muscle model toTHUMS which can simulate human postural states includingthe human reex of bracing one’s body for impact

TOYOTA’S THUMBS-UP FOR THUMS 5


Image source: Honda R&D Americas Inc. / 3DEXCITE

Image source: Honda R&D Americas Inc. / 3DEXCITE

6 | Megatrends


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We are not just engineers.We are bodyguards.

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lighter, stronger and more sustainable – so that every single car safety component can be

optimized and more lives can be saved.

It’s not about steel. It’s about life.

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18/848 | Megatrends automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

According to the UN, road trafficinjuries remain a major publichealth problem and a leading causeof death, injury and disability aroundthe world. Each year, nearly 1.3 millionpeople die and between 20 millionand 50 million more are injured as aresult of road crashes. More than 90%of these deaths occur in low-incomeand middle-income countries, whichhave less than half of the world’svehicles.

On 11 May 2011, the United Nationslaunched the Decade of Action forRoad Safety 2011-2020. “The Decadeof Action for Road Safety can help allcountries drive along the path to amore secure future... Today, partnersaround the world are releasing nationalor citywide plans for the Decade,hosting policy discussions andenabling people affected by roadcrashes to share their stories widely.Now we need to move this campaigninto high gear and steer our world tosafer roads ahead. Together, we can

save millions of lives,” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said at the time.

One of the ve pillars of this plan callsfor the building of safer vehicles, withseven recommended activities underthis pillar. Among them is therecommendation to implement NCAPsin all world regions, in order to increasethe availability of consumer informationabout the safety performance of motorvehicles.

While stringent crash regulations inEurope and the US have made carssafer in these, and other developednations, than ever before, the samecannot be said for cars in emergingmarkets in Asia, Latin America andAfrica. According to Global New CarAssessment Programme (GlobalNCAP – an umbrella organisationwhich aims to support the developmentof new consumer crash testprogrammes in emerging markets), thislevel of safety in developed nations haslargely been achieved through a

formula comprising of ‘regulatory push’and ‘demand pull’.

Global NCAP has said in the past thatthe combination of national and UNsafety standards and consumerinformation promoted by NCAPs hascreated a market for safer vehicles.Nevertheless, vehicles in emergingmarkets are still not regulated for safetyon the same lines as developedmarkets and, as a result, casualty ratesare signicantly higher.

India

Things came to a head in 2014, whenthe rst ever independent crash testscarried out in India, by Global NCAP,showed that many popular small carsin the country failed these tests, mostwith a zero-star adult protection rating.This led to an exchange betweenAndrew Palmer, then Nissan’s ChiefPlanning Officer and Executive VicePresident, and Global NCAP’sChairman, Max Mosley.

Safety in emerging markets

– a long way to goWhat price car safety in emerging markets? David Isaiah investigates

Safety


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Safety

Palmer called Global NCAP’s scoringof the Indian small cars “absurd” andstated that “people who criticise thesecars for not meeting US or Europeancrash standards are living in a dreamworld.”

According to David Ward, Secretary

General of Global NCAP, vehiclemanufacturers operating in emergingmarkets such as India, “say theirstandards are applied in whichevercountry they are selling the productsand unfortunately there are manyemerging markets in which this is legal.They are exploiting the lack of a globalminimum regulation in the market.”

Latin NCAP

In 2012, Latin NCAP’s crash test results

of eight models revealed that safetylevels of some cars remained 20 yearsbehind developed nations. Now, LatinNCAP feels that the region is still on thesame page, despite the progress thathas been made in this area. Thereason for this is that when safetyrequirements were adapted in LatinAmerica, other regions like Europe, theUS and Japan kept moving forwardwith newer regulations and ever morestringent requirements.

“As a NGO [non-governmentalorganisation] and working in the eld ofsafety, we do recommend togovernments certain regulations, andwe are following Global NCAPsuggestions. But unfortunately we haveseen that the inuence from theindustry side in the Latin Americangovernments is much stronger than theconsumers’ inuence, or even theWHO data,” Latin NCAP SecretaryGeneral, Alejandro Furas toldMegatrends.

“We have noticed something that isvery clear in our markets. We arepaying very high prices for some carsthat are locally built, which look exactlythe same as the European cars, butthey actually have much lessequipment. Take for example the FordFiesta, the Peugeot 308 or the RenaultClio. In all these cars we have seenthat in Latin America we are paying30-40% more for a car that iscompletely stripped from safety other

than just double airbags in the frontand ABS.”

In Europe, frontal crash protection andside crash protection, as well asantilock braking systems (ABS) werethe standard required by law as early

as 1996. In Latin American markets,side impact protection requirementsare not required even now. Furasbelieves that while vehiclemanufacturers may not shoulder theentire onus of vehicle safety, the carindustry nevertheless has a hugeinuence on governments, in order to

slow down the advent of new safetyequipment in cars.

“In Brazil, from 2014, all new modelsneed to be equipped with doubleairbags and ABS. That’s a mandatoryrequirement as of 1 January 2014.Argentina is the same, Uruguay is thesame, and Ecuador is the same. But inColombia and Mexico you can still buycars with no airbags," said Furas. "Theyare still allowed to sell cars with noairbags. The region is fractured into

these blocks."

Information

“We keep buying cars on the market,testing them, and showing consumers.We need to reach those consumersthat are planning to buy a car. We’retrying to disseminate as muchinformation as possible. Internet, socialmedia, all this is helping very much.The most powerful tool is to informconsumers,” said Furas.

In emerging markets worldwide peoplebuying their rst car, on a limitedbudget, look essentially for three maincriteria: good fuel mileage, good safetyand affordable insurance. One suchvehicle manufacturer operating in LatinAmerica, Volkswagen, appears to haveticked all three boxes with its Up!model.

According to Latin NCAP, despite theBrazilian-produced Up! sitting in the

entry-level price segment, it hassecured a ve-star Latin NCAP safetyrating. This, says the organisation,shows consumers that it is possible to

buy an affordable car with a high safetyrating. Furthermore, the Up!’s ve starsafety rating exceeds governmentrequirements, and Furas says he isaware of other manufacturers workingto improve their cars in order to matchthe Up!.

What price safety?

Meanwhile, in India, despite the factthat many vehicle manufacturers haveincreased safety levels in their carsfollowing the damning Global NCAPcrash test results at the start of 2014,cars continued to perform badly inGlobal NCAP’s crash tests at the endof the year. The two cars that weretested, Maruti Suzuki’s Swift and theDatsun Go, both received zero-starratings for adult occupant protection.

A key difference between LatinAmerica and India is the cost of a carwith reduced safety feature content. InIndia’s highly cost-sensitive carmarket, a car stripped of safetyfeatures that would otherwise bemandatory in Europe or the US, costsless than the safer version. In LatinAmerica, on the other hand, buyerspay more for the same cars with fewersafety features.

However, the poor performance of carsin the Global NCAP tests in India hasresulted in one positives outcome atleast: India’s decision to launch aNCAP consumer testing programme.

“We welcome the initiative of the Indiangovernment to launch its own NCAPand recommend that this positive stepis combined with the application of theUN regulations for frontal and sideimpact,” said Global NCAP’s Ward.“Prompt action like this would prevent

the introduction of brand new modelslike the Datsun Go, which has bodystructure so weak that is pointless to tan airbag.”

Megatrends | 19


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Safety


Across emerging and frontiermarkets, most car buyers havegenerally focused on pricing,maintenance cost, and fuel economy,thereby ignoring the very importantaspect of safety. The governments inthese countries have also not givensafety due importance, with basicsafety features such as airbags andABS still not a legal requirement. Takingadvantage of this nonchalance among

customers and governments, OEMshave long compromised on safetyfeatures in cars sold in developingmarkets.

In recent years, however, withcustomers becoming more aware andglobal safety organisations cajoling forhigher safety standards, someemerging countries have introduced

increased safety measures, which inturn will require signicant changes inthe cars sold by leading OEMs. Whilethis is expected to affect the bottom-lineof OEMs in these price-sensitivemarkets, not abiding to the changingenvironment is likely to prove equallycostly - if not in the short term, thencertainly over the medium-to-long term.

Vehicle safety standards in South

Korea match European levels, whileChina has also shown immenseprogress in adopting standard carsafety equipment and technology. Butother developing countries, such asMexico, India, and Brazil, lie far behind.As per current car safety standards,David Ward, Secretary General ofGlobal New Car AssessmentProgramme (Global NCAP) rates

China-7, Brazil-5, and India-3 on ascale of one to ten. “This rating isbased on three key factors – the stateof legislation, level of penetration ofdifferent technologies in the marketplace, and consumer awarenesslevels.” However, with India and Brazilinitiating the implementation of severalsafety standards in recent months, theyare likely to match global standards atleast for crash testing. Crash

prevention, on the other hand, remainsa long-term goal.

The Indian automotive industryreceived a major blow in 2014 whenGlobal NCAP conducted tests on someof its most popular entry-level variants(Maruti Suzuki Alto 800, Hyundai i10,Ford Figo, Volkswagen Polo, Tata Nano,Maruti Swift, and Datsun Go) and

Emerging markets are taking

vehicle safety seriously(at least on paper!)

China has shown immense progress in adopting car safety standards, but other

developing countries, such as Mexico, India, and Brazil, lie far behind. Indraneel

Bardhan of EOS Intelligence, takes a closer look

Existing Safety Standards India Brazil Mexico China South Korea

Crash Testing Standards

Compulsory Airbags and ABS

UN Minimum Crash Test Standard

Independant Crash Tesst Facility To be introduced in2015/2016

To be introduced in2017

Current NCAP Status Bharat NCAP to be in-troduced in 2015

China-NCAP China-NCAP

Mandatory Crash Test To be introduced in2017 To be introduced in2017

Crash Prevention Standards

Mandatory Electronic Stability Control

Under Latin-NCAP

Under Latin-NCAP


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Safety

awarded zero-star adult-protectionrating to all of them. This, in addition tohaving the highest number of roadfatalities globally, instigated the Indiangovernment to commit to introducingregulations for mandatory safetystandards. As per new regulations, byOctober 2017, all new cars will berequired to pass frontal and side crashtests, with the deadline for newversions of existing models extended to

October 2019. To pass this test, carswill need to have reasonable body shellstrength and be equipped with airbagsand other standard safety features. Forconducting the test, the governmentplans to develop two crash testfacilities, which are expected to come

online in 2015/2016. In addition, theauthorities plan to launch an IndianNCAP. India is also creating a vehiclerecall policy, which will encompasstesting for manufacturing defects.However, this legislation is yet to bepassed.

Ironically, the focus on safety standardsin India is a cause of concern for thosecar manufacturers selling locally, which

have for so long focused on pricing andfuel efficiency. In terms ofmanufacturing infrastructure andtechnology, minimal changes arerequired to adapt to these proposedchanges in safety standards, becausemost models offer basic safety features

- such as airbags and ABS - in theirhigher variants, and the OEMS useIndia as major export hub for their carsdestined for Europe and the US.However, with India being such a price-sensitive market, this will have aconsiderable impact on the OEMs’bottom line. Moreover, many Indian carbuyers still fail to value safety, therebyrestricting the price tag that OEMs canattach for these features.

“The rst reaction of the OEMs is thatthey are not very happy, since it willmake their cars more expensive. But inthe longer term, they will adapt to it asthey have done in other countries.People will become aware and ask for

Unlike India and Brazil, the tightening of China’s vehicle safety standards stems from the country’s C-NCAP (ChinaNew Car Assessment Programme) initiatives. While the Chinese government has only mandated the use of seat beltsand frontal airbags, the number of airbags in vehicles in China is reaching European and US levels. This is primarilydue to the aggressive promotion of C-NCAP’s safety assessment by the Chinese government, which has encouragedthe country’s population to value car safety. “We undertake a lot of promotional initiatives such as advertisement and

highway hoardings to promote safety features among consumers. This has really helped in making consumers awareof the importance of safety,” says C-NCAP. Furthermore, C-NCAP has upgraded its test protocols to match its Europeancounterpart and expects standards to be on a par with each other by 2018. C-NCAP has also started focusing onaccident research and plans to include a test for pedestrian protection in future vehicles. It has also been consideringincluding test scenarios for AEB systems that will further help mitigate pedestrian collisions.

Even in the case of China, the pricing of the vehicles increased with the addition of safety features but the entire priceis not passed down to the con\sumers, especially in the base-level cars.

However, one of the key reasons why China has upped its vehicle safety standards is to build a good reputation forexports. As Chinese cars gain traction due to competitive pricing and design, they suffer a poor reputation when itcomes to quality. Thus, they have consciously increased focus on safety norms to meet global standards. While theyare on the right lines, they still have a long way to go to reach global safety standards.

CASE STUDY: CHINA

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safety. The OEMs’ focus will be to meetthe safety standards at affordable prices.For example, child support restraints arenot made in India and are imported.OEMs can ask the government for

concessions on these imports,” saysRohit Baluja, Director, Institute of RoadTraffic Education, India.

Several leading OEMs have criticisedthe government’s call to boost safetystandards in India. An engineer workingwith a leading car manufacturer in Indiastated, “At this moment, there are notalks about any changes beingintroduced to the body. These mattersare handled at a very strategic level.Nothing has been discussed on this

aspect as of now. In India, safety can’treally become a USP right now. Priceis and will continue to remain the mainselling point. If we talk about metrocities, the demand for frontal airbagshas increased. So yes, safety hasbecome more important. But this is thecase in metro cities only.”

It also seems that the government hassuccumbed to pressure from the OEMsand has softened several of the safetystandards. As per the regulations, India

will be following China’s footsteps andintroducing crash testing at a speed of56kph (35 mph) instead of 64kph,which is followed globally (while Chinastarted testing at 56kph in 2006, it alsoincreased its speed from 56kph to64kph in 2011). Moreover, the

authorities plan to conduct only ‘headimpact’ tests for Indian pedestriansrather than the ‘head and leg impact’norms adopted by Euro NCAP. It hasfurther slashed the requirement for the

use of child dummies for some sideimpact tests, which is a globalstandard. Decisions regardingmandatory safety belt alarm, child alertalarm, pre-tensioners, and airbags arealso pending.

While several leading OEMs have notbeen very supportive of the Indiangovernment’s decision to introducemandatory crash tests, those whichhave pre-emptively incorporated thesefeatures in their cars have been the

winners. Toyota, which made airbagsmandatory in all its models in October2014 in India, saw sales surge by 34%between October 2014 and April 2015.Volkswagen, which in February 2014made airbags a standard feature in allits Polo hatchbacks, has seen the salesof its entry-level variant rise sincemaking that decision. Since its poorperformance in the Global NCAP crashtest, Nissan Motors has also worked onstrengthening the body shell of itsDatsun Go by using higher-grade steel

– 520 MPa instead of the earlier 320MPa – and adding side beams toenhance the strength and rigidity of thevehicles.

Thus the way forward denitely beginswith OEMs embracing the introduced

changes. It is not incorrect to say thatthe consumers continue to be pricesensitive, but that is because they arenot well informed about safety. Thus, tosee a genuine shift towards safety, both

the government and car manufacturershave to work together to change themindset of the consumer and promotevehicle safety as an equally importantfactor in purchase decisions.

“It’s a shared responsibility ofgovernment and manufacturers toinform the consumers and move themarket forward. Our project of testingcars has also helped build awarenessand get media attention. We will domore testing at the end of this year and

get results beginning next year. Thecombination of government action onregulation, the response of individualmanufacturers and the work done byNCAP will improve the whole situationin India,” says Global NCAP’s Ward.

Brazil has a similar story, where thecheapest models of some of its best-selling cars, such as the VolkswagenGol Trend, Fiat Palio, Chevrolet Celta,Ford Ka, Peugeot 207, and Fiat NovoUno, received only one star when crash

tested by Latin NCAP. In a similar test,a model put forward by Chinese OEMGeely was awarded zero stars. Thiswas underpinned by the absence ofbasic safety features such as airbags,lack of body reinforcements, lower-quality steel, weaker weld spots to

Safety

Low

Medium

High

Mexico

“The number of airbags in vehicles is reaching the same level as Europeand the US. Automakers in China are asking us for pretensioners for therear seats, not just the front. The level of safety electronics and sensingon board Chinese vehicles is now very similar to the US and Europe.” –

Norbert Kagerer, Engineering Vice President, TRW Occupant SafetySystems

“(In India) It is worrying to see levels ofsafety that are 20 years behind the five-

star standards now common in Europeand North America. Poor structural

integrity and the absence of airbags areputting the lives of Indian consumers at

risk. They have a right to know how safetheir vehicles are and to expect the samebasic levels of safety as standard as

customers in other parts of the world.” –Max Mosley, Chairman, Global NCAP

“(In Mexico) For the company to makemore net profit and so that cars are sold

at more affordable prices, we wouldtoss aside some accessories. Air bags,

ABS brakes, those were the first to go.”– Engineer, GM Mexico

“Entry-level cars in Brazil are incredibly dangerous, it can't be denied.The death rate from accidents is far too high. The manufacturers do thisbecause the cars are a little cheaper to make and the demands of the

Brazilian consumers are less; their knowledge of safety issues is lowerthan in Europe or the US.” – Maria Ines Dolci, Coordinator, Proteste (a

consumer defense group)

Low

Medium

High

Low

Medium

High

Low

Medium

High

Low

Medium

High

“South Korea is now at the levelof Europe (in terms of safety

standards). Penetration of ESCis very high now.” – David Ward,

Secretary General, GlobalNCAP

Brazil

India

China

South Korea

Safety standard levels across the major emerging automotive markets



23/84Megatrends | 23automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

support the vehicles, and outdated carplatforms. As a result, the Braziliangovernment mandated airbags andABS on all cars in 2014. Just as it haddone in India, this regulation facedmuch criticism from OEMs and was onthe verge of being postponed in theface of resistance due to it leading toan increase in the prices of basicmodels, and employees being laid offin the case of models beingdiscontinued. However, the

government pushed ahead with theregulations as decided, but offeredlower import tariffs for key safetyequipment to subdue the expectedprice rise.

In addition, the government isconsidering making electronic stabilitycontrol (ESC) a standard in all cars;however, that remains in the future. TheBrazilian government also plans tolaunch a US$50m independent crashtest centre by 2017. While the centre isexpected to run as a government body,OEMs may provide part of the fundingfor its operation and even use thefacilities, raising some concerns aboutthe lab’s autonomy. Moreover, since theregulations lack a ‘conformity ofproduction’ clause (which requiresautomobile safety performance to be

spot checked for the entire time themodel is produced), the car models areonly required to meet the crash testrequirements once. Companies canalso send a car of their choosing.These factors further may compromiseon the credibility of the testing.

Thus, as safety standards improveacross emerging markets, the onusnow lies on OEMs to adapt to thesechanges. While this will impact the

prots of the vehicle manufacturers, italso presents them with an opportunityto gain a strong market foothold byoffering these safety features at a lowprice. Moreover, although thesechanges are happening primarily inIndia and Brazil, companies must beprepared for similar regulations tocome in Mexico and other LatinAmerican countries in the comingyears.

As well as crash test standards, thereis considerable discussion about crashprevention technology, the mostimportant being electronic stabilitycontrol (ESC). While this has alreadybecome a standard technology inseveral markets, such as Australia,Canada, the EU, Israel, Japan, SouthKorea, the Russian Federation, Turkey,

and the USA, Global NCAP is workingtowards making ESC mandatory in allcars manufactured by 2020. “Ouroverall priority is to ensure that allpassenger cars, irrespective of wherethey are produced, must have theappropriate minimum crash teststandards and the most importantcrash prevention technology (i.e. ESC)by 2020. To achieve this, the mostimportant countries to act are China,India, and Brazil,” states Ward. Withcrash test standards also becoming a‘standard’ among key emergingmarkets, the introduction of ESC alsodoes not seem far from reality. In fact,Brazil and China have already begunconsidering mandating ESC. TheOEMs that anticipate this and worktowards it will be at an advantage.

It has taken time for several keyemerging and frontier automotivemarkets to realise the importance ofvehicle safety, both for drivers andpassengers, as well as for other roadusers; nonetheless, the fact thatgovernments have recently begunintroducing policy measures to bringabout this change is to be applauded.

The implementation of regulations andthe variation in standards that existsacross these markets remains a causefor concern, as are aspects that OEMsmight use to their advantage bybypassing certain global standards. Itis important that consumers also makesafety a priority when purchasing avehicle, which would force OEMs toensure that global standards are alsofollowed in emerging and frontiermarkets. Brazil, China and India mustlead the way, so that OEMs implementsafety as standard across otheremerging and frontier markets.

To see a genuine shift towards safety, both the

government and car manufacturers have to

work together to change the mindset of the

consumer and promote vehicle safety as an

equally important factor in purchase decisions

“

Safety


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The future of truck safety

lies in technology

Autonomous truck technology will become increasingly important in trucking, but primarily for safety, rather than comfort reasons

By Rachel Boagey

Safety



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Safety

2015 marked a new direction fortruck safety, and the beginning ofthe year witnessed the US NationalTransportation Safety Board (NTSB)publish its annual Most Wanted list.This year, the organisation highlightedits desire for more industry focus ontruck safety, including anti-collision

technology, better limits on driver hoursand tighter regulation of truckingcompanies with high collision rates.

While commercial trucking is integral tothe economy, crashes, injuries anddeaths involving commercial truckshave been increasing over the pastseveral years. In fact, the number ofpeople killed in the US in large truckcrashes increased for the fourthconsecutive year, totalling 3,964people in 2013, according to the

National Highway Traffic SafetyAdministration (NHTSA).

Research on the North American Class6-8 truck safety systems market carriedout by Frost & Sullivan found that thetruck market in North America isexpected to require nearly 917,069truck safety systems by 2020, up from409,417 units in 2013. These guresinclude Driver Information WarningSystems (DIWS), Active ChassisControl Systems (ACCS) and

Integrated Safety Systems (ISS).

The research was carried out byLakshmi Narayanan, Senior ResearchAnalyst – Automotive & Transportation,Commercial Vehicles at Frost & Sullivan,who noted that the growing awarenessamong eets, impending regulations,the need for eets to reduce Total Costof Ownership (TCO) reductions, and theenhanced value proposition of safetysystems is expected to drive the marketover the 2013-2020 period.

“A few technologies such as IntegratedSafety Systems, Lane DepartureWarning, and Blind Spot Detectionsystems are expected to experiencethe highest growth with drivermonitoring and crash avoidancegaining importance among eets incoming years,” Narayanan toldMegatrends. “In addition to reducingthe crash risk, factors such as systemreliability, fuel consumption reductions,critical event reporting and use of

actionable data from such systems areencouraging eets to install safetysystems.” The value proposition of suchsystems, apart from their high potentialin reducing crashes, improving highwaysafety, and other collision-relatedbenets, are expected to be major

factors in driving growth of safetysystems in trucks.

Eliminating unnecessary deathsthrough technology

Regulations put forward in the truckingindustry will also increase the number

of safety technologies in eets in thefuture, “which will reduce the crashpotential from inexperienced driversthrough the installation of on-boardsafety technologies,” Narayanan toldMegatrends.

The introduction of acts aimed atincentivising safety technologyadoption will provide legislativeimpetus for safety technologies, stokingadoption by eets.

Volvo Trucks’ Accident Research Teamin Europe recently carried out researchinto truck safety, which indicates that90% of all truck safety incidents aredue entirely or partly to human error. By2020, however, more than 35 milliontrucks globally will be connected, andcollision-avoidance technologies thatcould help eliminate cyclist andpedestrian deaths caused by driver‘blind-spots’ are likely to be required inmany markets by law.

“Fleets that recognise drivers as theirmost important asset tend to specmore safety technologies on theirequipment,” explained Jason Spence,Product Marketing Manager-Long Haulat Volvo Trucks. Many adopt safetytechnologies not because ofregulations but because of their

experience with the cost of a collisionto their business. The cost of trucksafety technologies is minimalcompared to the cost of collisions.However, regulations do tend to bringlate adopters up to the safety standardsof the rest of the trucking industry.

“Volvo Trucks’ goal of zero collisionsdrives the advancement of future safetysystems,” said Spence. “We willcontinue to develop and rene next-generation safety systems to support

the truck driver’s operation of thevehicle.” These future safety systemswill monitor conditions outside the truckmore comprehensively and providereal-time information to the driverregarding potential hazards around thevehicle. “Since drivers are the most vitalpart of the trucking industry, we willcontinue to develop safety features andtechnologies to help protect them aswell as other motorists andpedestrians,” he explained.

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Passive versus active

Going forward, improving truck safetyis not just reliant on technology,although it will play an increasingly vitalrole. “Both passive and active safetysystems are important because it is notalways possible to prevent a collision

due to the actions of other drivers. Webelieve it is just as critical to protect thetruck driver when a collision occurs,”noted Spence. “If a collision isunavoidable, many passive safetysystems absorb much of the crash’senergy to reduce its severity.” To ensurepassive safety, Volvo builds every cabwith high-strength steel and designscabs so that in the event of a crash, theengine and transmission drop downand away from the driver and thesteering column collapses. “We also

were the rst truck manufacturer in theNorth American market to make adriver’s side airbag standard,” Spencestated.

Active safety systems help driversavoid collisions through alerts andother forms of driver assistance. Forexample, Volvo Enhanced StabilityTechnology has been standard onhighway tractors in North America for adecade, and the radar-based VolvoEnhanced Cruise with Active Braking

helps drivers maintain a safe followingdistance by reducing throttle andapplying brakes in instances whendrivers don’t have time to respond tosudden events.

Frost & Sullivan’s Narayanan believesthat, until higher levels of automationbeyond audio and visual alerts allow foractive safety systems to take over,passive safety systems will continue toplay a vital role in improving safety.“Nowadays, systems that track and

monitor data from safety systems canalso be considered as passivesystems. Packaging of critical data foractionable information for eets willgain traction in the years to come.”

Autonomous safety

Daimler Trucks gave a glimpse into thefuture of trucking safety, becoming theworld’s rst OEM to be granted a roadlicense for an autonomous heavy-dutytruck. The rst journey in the so-calledFreightliner Inspiration Truck, tookplace in May 2015 on US highway 15 inLas Vegas.

Daimler’s initial research ndingsclearly show that autonomous drivingrelieves the strain of truck drivers.Measurements of the probands’ braincurrents (EEG) demonstrated thatdriver drowsiness decreases by about25% when the truck is being operatedin autonomous mode, and the drivercan pursue other meaningfuloperations. The studies also prove ahigh acceptance of the Highway Pilottechnology and a rapid adaption phase

of the probands.

“We are concentrating on our strengthswhen it comes to efficiency, safety andconnectivity, and thereby sustainablysecuring our technological leadership.We remain best-in-class when it comesto lowering real cost of ownership andare highly valued by our customers,”said Martin Daum, President and ChiefExecutive of Daimler Trucks NorthAmerica.

Increased safety, increaseddemands

In the next ten years and beyond,although widespread adoption of fully

autonomous trucks is unlikely, Volvoexpects to see continued andincreasingly rapid adoption of activesafety systems for collision warningand mitigation. “Features such as ourEnhanced Stability Technology,Enhanced Cruise and Active Brakingand Lane Departure Warning (LDW)will become more popular over the nextten-year period,” stated Volvo’s Spence.

He also believes that the driving forcesbehind this trend will include attractingand retaining truck drivers, maintainingconsistent operational costs, andcomplying with regulations. “We alsosee a continued push toward recordingcollisions as a tool for preventing themand toward technologies that couldeven track collisions that were avoided.Ultimately, the goal is a steady, year byyear decline in truck crashes.”

Narayanan believes that in this

timeframe, improved safe drivingpractices, data analytics support, andthe ability of systems to take increasedpreventive measures will lead toincreased demand for safety systems,as a result of which telematics andsafety technologies will be highlyintertwined. “Regulations mandatingLDW, stability control and forwardcollision avoidance (FCA) will lead toeets focusing on integrated safetysystems, reducing the need fordisparate sensors. Laying out a

common advanced electrical andelectronics platform will provide clearboundaries for the integration ofelectronics and safety systems intrucks.”


Safety


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Safety

The global economy is cyclical, butthis has little impact on the steadypace of urbanisation and cityexpansion, which in turn impactsmobility. Increasing congestion,especially on highways and city roads,increases the potential for trafficincidents. As a result, the truckindustry’s safety focus has turned tothe development of safety systems thataid drivers in anticipation or avoidance

of critical events or hazards.

Among eets, safety and collisionavoidance have become high prioritiesworldwide. Fleets have begun to adoptstrategies to reduce crash-related coststhrough installation of OEM and

aftermarket safety systems. From abusiness standpoint, eets are lookingto optimise operations through vehiclemaintenance and operating costsavings such as fuel, life cyclemanagement, and vehicle up-time. In achallenging environment of stringentgovernment regulations anddecreasing prot margins, the focus forthe commercial vehicle industry hasshifted to adapt to these mounting

challenges. The installation of safetysystems can offer multiple cost-savingbenets by helping to reduce crashesand potential liabilities.

In order to incorporate safety systemsin trucks, eets are looking at several

factors such as regulation, initialinvestment, performance, and returnon investment (ROI). Furthermore, inan era of skilled driver shortage,improved safe driving practices,reduced driver distraction, increasedability of driver assistance systems totake preventive measures, andimproved driver retention are alsobeing increasingly considered whenpurchasing safety technologies.

Regulations such as the USCompliance, Safety and Accountability2010 (CSA 2010) are forcing eets toconcentrate on enhancing safe drivingpractices and integrating trucks withadvanced safety systems; eetmanagers are also demanding systems


CV safety focus shifts to

collision avoidanceGrowing cities mean worsening urban congestion and increased road safety

risks for private individuals and commercial fleets alike. Lakshmi Narayanan

Ramanujam, Senior Research Analyst - Commercial Vehicle Research at Frost &

Sullivan looks at the future of truck safety technology


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Safety

that not only provide warnings, but alsointervene as driver distractionincreasingly becomes a major concern.

Cost-conscious eet owners arecompelling truck manufacturers andsuppliers to focus on delivering cost-competitive safety systems that provide

multiple safety benets. Integratedsafety systems, which offer stabilitycontrol systems in addition to collisionmitigation systems, are increasinglybeing preferred in developed marketssuch as North America and Europe.Moreover, bundling technologiesreduces the complexity of systems foreets and drivers, while also increasingthe ROI factor through the reduction indistribution costs. Advances in sensorand radar technologies are facilitatingthe sharing of system components and

driving the growth of integrated safetysystems in such markets. In addition toa shared platform for differenttechnologies, integration will result insensor fusion and sharing, while alsoaugmenting the growth of V2V and V2Idata connectivity in trucks. Systems inuse today, such as adaptive cruisecontrol, already enable fuel savings;V2V and V2I communication in trucksshould further increase savingspotential.

Unlike emission regulations, there is awide disparity in standards for safetysystems in various parts of the world.In North America, there is a greaterlikelihood of stability control mandatesin Class 8 trucks. As a result, theseforthcoming mandates in favour ofElectronic Stability Control (ESC)

systems, which enhance vehiclestabilisation, are expected to drive ESCas a standalone system in the region.By 2020, forward collision avoidance(FCA) mandates are expected in NorthAmerica, which will drive the growth ofcollision mitigation and integratedsafety systems. Demand for activechassis controls systems such as ESCwill be boosted by developments inindividual technologies and growingawareness toward the effectiveness ofthese technologies. In Europe,

regulatory mandates are in place forcertain technologies, such asAutonomous Emergency Braking(AEB) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) systems for commercialvehicles. Both AEB and LDW willbecome mandatory for all new vehiclesfrom November 2015, providing a

strong incentive to OEMs and Tier 1suppliers to invest in additionalfunctional technologies to assistautonomous driving. To reduce collisionrates in North America and Europe,there are discussions and deliberationsof regulations for backup camerasaround the 2019 to 2021 period. TheTRIAD markets have witnessed anincrease in demand for tyre pressure-related systems, owing to the valueproposition offered in terms of crashavoidance and fuel savings. With

growing acceptance by governmentbodies and the global trucking industry,the developed markets are likely toexperience a proliferation of collisionmitigation systems that would involvethe integration of stability control,vision-based systems and activebraking systems.

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While developed countries are turningtheir attention toward advanced driverassistance systems (ADAS),developing markets are reliant onbraking systems for safety. Antilockbraking systems and stability controlsystems have yet to gain signicantpenetration in developing countriessuch as China, India, Russia and theNext 11 nations, owing to lowawareness of the systems. Stricter

regulations are expected, especially inChina and India, which will signicantlyinuence the truck industry in the restof the world. The difference inenforcement of regulations acrossvarious regions of the world is animpediment to speedier adoption ofsystems such as ABS and ESC indeveloping markets. Furthermore, therising disparity is also leading toinated system cost increments in suchregions.

Besides active safety systems, videosafety solutions have recently gainedsignicance in the commercial vehiclemarkets of North America and Europe.Video safety solutions provide far-reaching safety across drivers, eets,and cargo by proactively enforcing

regulatory compliance, whileeffectively managing driverperformance. Backed by videoevidence, a video safety solution actsas a line of defence for drivers in caseof faulty impounds or liability issues,and reduces insurance costs for theeet. A few aftermarket vendors offer afour-camera solution that records a360-degree view of the truck; thisintegrates the existing video safety

solution into a surveillance solutionthat provides a comprehensivepackage, ensuring complete driver andeet safety. Currently, the mostprevalent solution is a two-channelmodule that deploys a forward-facingcamera positioned to capture thedriver’s view of the road and a driver-facing camera that records the cabinarea to monitor driver distraction. In themid-term and long-term, four-channeland six-channel modules are expectedto be in demand, catering to specic

applications like local distribution, oiland gas, waste, and transit. Whilevideo safety aftermarket solutionproviders currently dominate thescene, the market is expected to befragmented by vendors providingsafety systems and telematics, with

OEMs expected to introduce suchsystems around 2020.

There has been a gradual shift in the

purchase decisions related to safetysystems by eet owners across theworld. The increasing importance thateets in developed markets areattaching to supplier support andresponsiveness is an opportunity thatshould be leveraged to supportcustomers through the delivery ofactionable data for downstream analysis,driver training, and other potentialrevenue growth opportunities. With risingadoption of integrated safety systems inthese markets and eets focusing on

feature sets provided by suppliers,effective packaging of safety systems isnecessary to reduce the complexity fordrivers, in addition to providing cost-effective solutions to eets.

Tier 1 safety system suppliers will standto gain from sensor fusion and sharingto bundle multiple safety systems, andrapid adoption of such technologies inthe developed markets. This will requireadvanced technology vendors to investin electronic data interfaces and OEMs

to enable multiplexed electronicarchitecture in vehicles. In developingmarkets, strict enforcement ofregulations would be the driving forcebehind adoption of advanced safetysystems. Adoption of integrated safetysystems is expected to rise much later,owing to the nascent stage of the safetysystems industry in these markets.

Fleet managers globally will show highinterest in systems that not only offerthe usual benets, but also result in

operating cost reduction, processoptimisation, driver and techniciantraining, amongst others. This is reasonalone for global OEMs and Tier 1suppliers to develop localised growthstrategies to benet from opportunitiesoffered by all markets.


Safety



Is the auto industry sleepingthrough the cyber securitynightmare?

As cyber attacks move from potential threat to reality, Rachel Boagey asks

whether the automotive industry has done enough to secure the connected car against future cyber crime

Connected Car


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With consumer demands forconnectivity in the car increasingby the day, a stable connection fromthe car to the Internet is now a

necessity. But with this growingnecessity comes the increasing abilityof hackers to gain access to essentialvehicle functions and features. Onceinside, an attacker can utilise thevehicle’s internal communication BUSand – depending on the vehicle’selectronic architecture – couldpotentially take control of additionalmodules, including safety criticalsystems such as the anti-lock brakingsystem (ABS) and engine electroniccontrol units (ECUs). There is also the

possibility for hackers to take and useinformation about drivers’ habits forcommercial purposes without theirknowledge or consent.

With these threats becoming moreprevalent, exposing the car and people

in them to multiple risks, the industrycannot delay in acting to protect theconnected car; indeed, many think theindustry should have acted sooner.

Before the storm

While ethical – ‘white hat’ – hackers

open up interesting ndings in thename of research for the automotiveindustry, the concern is that if they cansuccessfully hack into a car, so too canthose with more malicious intent – the‘black hats’.

The added complexity andconvenience of technologies in carscomes with the risk of introducingvulnerabilities which attackers are alltoo happy to exploit, explained JoelClark, Research Consultant from

vulnerability testing rm MWRInfoSecurity. Speaking to Megatrends,Clark insisted that the industry maybegin to see an increase in thecomplexity of attacks as vehiclesbecome more connected. He alsonoted that there are some well-understood, industry standard bestpractices for keeping infrastructuresecure, which the automotive industrycould look to for inspiration. “Forexample, it is key that safety-criticalsystems, such as engine management

or brake-by-wire, are segregated fromnon-critical systems, such as thenavigation system. It should bephysically impossible to compromise auser’s phone and use it to controlanything but which song is playing onthe radio.”

Controlled chaos?

Even though connected car technologyis not new, it hasn’t become acommodity yet, explained Nazar

Tymoshyk, Security Consultant andCertied Ethical Hacker at technologysolutions company, SoftServe.Tymoshyk told Megatrends thatalthough the industry is not currentlyprepared to handle security threats tovehicles, standards such as ISO 26262are raising the ability for the industry tocome together and understand thekinds of risks facing the connected car.“But the industry is yet to realise awidely dened standard for security,” hesaid. “For this reason, it is hard to

measure security and the complianceof different versions of connected carsolutions.”

Stanislav Breslavskyi, a colleague ofTymoshyk and a Security Engineer atSoftServe believes that in a nutshell,

terms like ‘controlled chaos’characterise the connected carindustry. “Every smart-car vendor offerstheir own hardware and software, witha custom set of tools and technologies.They are all focusing on features ratherthan security. Such an approachincreases the number of security bugs,”

he said.

Using an already existing solution,such as open source (OS) software, isthe right step towards a secureconnected car, believes Breslavskyi.“Still, not all of the vendors go alongwith using ‘third-party’ software. In thiscase, the best way to ensure theircustomers’ security is to establish aSecure Software DevelopmentLifecycle when all developmentprocesses – from dening

requirements to production – areperformed with security in mindembodied in all-round security testing,both automated and manual,” he toldMegatrends.

Tim Erlin, Director of Security andProduct Management at advancedsecurity rm, Tripwire, believes thatwhile software patches for vehiclesaren’t new, the demonstration ofvulnerabilities are clearly attentiongrabbing. “The risks of the connected

car lie in the ability to affect theoperations of the vehicle from theoutside world. The good news is thatsecure software development isn’t anovel concept. There are known bestpractices that can be applied toautomotive software as well,” heexplained.

Autonomous dreams

With the development of autonomousvehicles, where software and

connectivity play a critical role, securitybecomes an even greater concern. Is itsafe to consider autonomous carsbefore cyber security is properlymanaged?

“The rst autonomous cars will pop upsooner than new safety rules, cybersecurity measures, and standards getdesigned and implemented within theautomotive industry,” explained YuriiBilyk, Security Engineer at SoftServe.“In today’s digital world, technology

isn’t a privilege that can be isolatedand kept only for yourself; it’sspreading too quickly and we can’t fullycontrol it,” he said.

“The development of autonomousvehicles and several other related, and


Connected Car


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Connected Car

very advanced, driver assistance andactive safety features continues in

parallel with connected vehicleenvironment,” explained PaulMascarenas, FISITA’s President andChairman of the Executive Board.“Many of the same solutions and bestpractices apply, together with someunique challenges. Consideration isgiven to security, privacy, liability and inaddition the policy issues that need tobe worked through in order to providethe regulatory framework that allowsthese vehicles to operate.”

Can the industry ever secure theconnected car?

“There is no such thing as 100%perfect security,” believes MohsenMohseninia, Vice President ofDevelopment, Europe, at Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communicationscompany, Aeris. “If you have a 100%secure system, nobody can talk to itand it can’t talk to anybody. It is abalancing act.”

Mohseninia explained that Aeris has adedicated core network, which meansthat except for radio transmissionbetween the device and network,everything else is an isolated networkpreventing external sourcescommunicating directly with the

devices. “That protects the devicescompletely from any spam that may try

to enter,” he noted.

Bohdan Serednytskyi, SecurityEngineer at SoftServe, agrees. “Thereis no system that is fully secure,” heobserved. “It is only possible to reducerisks to the minimum level, but somesecurity holes are always there, veryoften as a result of little or noknowledge about new vulnerabilities,so-called zero-days attacks, or justbecause of human mistakes.” Whileautomotive technologies are

continuously adding new features totheir functionality, they are alsoattracting hackers’ interest: the morefeatures a connected car has, the moreways there are to attack the system.

Onwards and upwards

In the wake of high-level cyber attackson a growing number of majorcorporations and governmentdepartments, the issue of cybersecurity is gaining increasing attention

in the mainstream media, and it’s clearthat cyber attacks are a present andfuture danger that must be resolved.

Connectivity has always meant access,but luckily, Tymoshyk believes theindustry is beginning to realise the

threat. “The major risk for the industryis the ability of an attacker to get

remote control of a vehicle,” concludedTymoshyk. “The silver lining now is thefact that vendors start thinking aboutsecurity right from the developmentprocess.”

“Software manufacturers have alwaysand will always have the possibility ofvulnerabilities, from multi-million dollarorganisations down to the smallsoftware vendor from your local town,”said Mark James, Security Specialist atIT Security Firm ESET. “Very few bits of

code can be declared 100% safe. Themain thing is being open to the fact thatyou could be vulnerable and having theplans and the means to nd, x anddistribute that x as quickly as humanlypossible. As more and more devicesbecome linked together we will seethem scrutinised and checked. It’s nota bad thing if handled in the right wayfrom all parties involved.”

“They say if you want to remain in thesame position, you have to run very

fast, and the same applies to security,”Serednytskyi said. “Going forward,therefore, it is clear that broader effortswill be needed to control attacks fromhackers, even if in reality, theconnected car can never be 100%secure.”


In a white paper released in August 2015, Chris Valasek and Charlie Miller detail a remote attack against anunaltered 2014 Jeep Cherokee that resulted in physical control of some aspects of the vehicle. The white paperwas published to coincide with presentations at the Black Hat and DEFCON hacker conferences

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35/84automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Remote controlled cars aren’t just forkids anymore. The past few yearshave witnessed a growing number of

developments from OEMs andsuppliers alike involving device-controlled parking and manoeuvring,usually through the use of asmartphone or tablet computer.

Nobody likes parking

In fact, all aspects of parking haveattracted digital developments ascompanies seek to reduce thechallenges involved in finding a vacantspot and then fitting one’s vehicle into

it. “We’ve seen great interest fromconsumers in parking-relatedservices, but these have beenrelegated to finding open parkingspaces, seeing prices of nearbyparking, navigating from the parkingspot to the user’s actual final

destination, and then finding theirvehicle upon returning to the parkinggarage or lot,” observed Chris

Schreiner, Director of User ExperiencePractice at Strategy Analytics.

Parking using a remote app is aconcept that has been around for a

few years, he added, pointingspecifically to Valeo, whichdemonstrated this technology at least

four years ago. That was launched inSeptember 2011, and smartphonetechnology alone has advancedsignificantly since then.

Watch out, remote-controlled

cars about!Megan Lampinen investigates the automotive industry’s growing interest in

remote-controlled cars

Connected Car

Megatrends | 35



Not just cars

Remote controlled parking is not limitedto passenger cars. In July 2014, ZFLenksysteme - a joint venture betweenZF and Robert Bosch now known asRobert Bosch Automotive Steering -adapted a car parking assistance

system for heavy commercial vehicles,promising to make reverse-parking of aEuroCombi trailer “easy as pie”. In theapp, the truck operator selects therequired direction and speed for driving- 4, 2, or 1 kph for forward driving and0.5, 1, or 2 kph. When reversing, hetouches the trailer image on the tabletdisplay with his nger and the truckstarts to move. To steer, the operatordrags the trailer on the display in therequired direction, and the parkingassistant automatically does the rest.

Once the destination is reached, theoperator takes his nger off the tabletand the truck stops moving. The same

technique is applied when movingforward. ZF believes the parkingassistant could prevent millions ofEuros worth of damage typicallycaused during low-speed manoeuvres.

However, Schreiner suggests there ismore useful technology out there for

tackling the same pr

automotive megatrends magazine q3 2015 website

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