automotive intelligence covering new car price, best car deals and

AUTOMOTIVE INTELLIGENCE COVERING NEW CAR PRICE, BEST CAR DEALS AND MORE

FEBRUARY, 2011

PRESENTS

TrueTrends™

Table of Contents

1February 15th, 2011 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2011 TrueCar, Inc.

TrueCar’s Price Flex Score4The TrueCar Price Flex Score measures the elasticity of transaction price by model. The Price Flex Score calculation dynamically incorporates the factors that affect price variance including the model’s transaction price range, current inventory and sales data. A vehicle experiencing extremely low inventory and a small range of transcation prices will have a low Price Flex Score. Don’t expect much of a discount from the TrueCar average transaction price on a vehicle with a low Price Flex Score. If a vehicle has a high Price Flex Score, however, you have the potential to strike a deal significantly below (or above, if you’re not careful!) the TrueCar average transaction price.

Performance Scorecards2The TrueCar Scorecard measures the overall performance of a brand or manufacturer based on pricing, sales, incentives, customer loyalty, market share, and inventory turn data.

Greatest Discounts7Featuring the highest discounts on 2010 and 2011 models. Luxury sport cars, vans, luxury cars, and midsize cars offer the greatest discounts at an average below MSRP of about 7%. Model year 2010 makes including Volkswagen, Saab, Volvo, and Chevrolet offer the biggest discounts. The top 2011 makes with the biggest discounts are Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, Dodge, and Chevrolet. The industry discount is 5.6%

Best and Worst Days to Buy a Car

9

Saturday, February 26th, the last saturday in February, will be the day consumers can expect the best buys for the month, with a projected discount of 8% from MSRP.

Largest Total Incentives for January

10

This month the 2011 BMW 7 Series has the largest total incentives with $7,500 in customer cash and $2,500 in dealer cash which amounts to $10,000 in total incentives.

Greatest Price Drop Month over Month11For each body type, TrueCar.com tracks the average transaction price for each trim and lists vehicles with the greatest drop in price month over month. This months greatest drop in price falls under the luxury car segment with $3,412 difference from last month on the 2011 Mercedes-Benz S-Class.

Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory12Subcompact cars, sport cars, and vans are where the best potential inventory-based discounts will be seen. On average, subcompact cars are staying in inventory for 94 days, while sports cars and vans are on-lot for 84 days and 78 days respectively. SUV’s overall are moving off the lots quickly. Luxury SUV’s have an average inventory stay of 39 days, Small SUV’s at 42 days, Midsize SUV’s at 44 days, and Large SUV’s at 51 days.

Model Year Share13Model year share shows the percentage of 2010 and 2011 model year vehicles sold within the last month. The makes with the highest percentage of 2010 model year share are smart, Saab, and Dodge. Model year 2010 vehicles make up 15.3% of vehicles available. BMW has the highest share of 2011 models with 97.2%, Jaguar and Chevrolet follow closely with 95.8% and 95.4% respectively.


Brand Performance Scorecard

Discount Percentage


Porsche

Buick

Subaru

Jaguar

Land Rover

Audi

Cadillac

Hyundai

Scion

GMC

Lexus

BMW

Smart

Acura

Suzuki

MINI

Mercedes-Benz

A+

A+

A+

A

A

A

A-

A-

A-

B+

B+

B+

B

B

B

B-

B-

Brand Grade ChgDiscount

PercentagePrice

VariationCustomer

LoyaltyRetail

Sales ChangeTrueCar Price

Trending Incentives/Price

Market Share Change

Days inInventory

Strong Weak

Transaction price over MSRP for the last 30 days. The lower the discount the higher the grade.

GradeOverall performance grade compared to the other brands or manufacturers.

Price VariationStandard deviation of transaction price over MSRP over the last 30 days. The lower the variation the higher the grade.

Customer LoyaltyPercentage of new-vehicle buyers who are replacing their current car or truck with the same brand. The higher the loyalty percentage the higher the grade.

Retail Sales ChangeA year over year comparison of change in retail sales per brand or manufacturer. The higher the change percentage the higher the grade.

TrueCar Price TrendingAverage price of vehicles published on Truecar.com (normalized by MSRP). It is based on the change of this month’s average TrueCar Price/MSRP relative to the average TrueCar Price/MSRP over the last twelve months. The lower the change the higher the grade.

Incentives/PriceA measurement of incentives per unit over transaction price. The lower the ratio the better the grade.

Market Share ChangeA year over year calculation of a brand or manufacturer’s U.S. market share. The higher the change the better the grade.

YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISONS LOOK AT January 2011 OVER January 2010.

Days in InventoryAverage number of days to sell a vehicle once it reaches a dealership lot. The lower the days the higher the score.

Grade Change Since Last Month



Brand Performance Scorecard ( Continued... )

Brand DiscountPercentage

PriceVariation

CustomerLoyalty

Retail Sales Change

TrueCar PriceTrending Incentives/

Price

Market Share Change

Days inInventory

Strong Weak

Ford

Volkswagen

Jeep

Volvo

Lincoln

Mitsubishi

Toyota

Infiniti

Kia

Nissan

Mazda

Chrysler

Dodge

Chevrolet

Honda

Saab

Mercury

B+

C+

C+

C

C

C

C

C-

C-

C-

D+

D+

D+

D

D-

D-

F

Grade Chg


Manufacturer Performance Scorecard

Porsche

Subaru

Jaguar Land Rover

Daimler

BMW

Hyundai

Suzuki

Volkswagen

Toyota

Mitsubishi

GM

Ford

Volvo

Chrysler

Honda

Nissan

Mazda

Saab

Manufacturer DiscountPercentage

PriceVariation

CustomerLoyalty

Retail Sales Change

TrueCar PriceTrending Incentives/

Price

Market Share Change

Days inInventory

Strong Weak


Manufacturer Performance Scorecard

A+

A

A

A-

B+

B

B

B-

B-

C+

C+

C+

C

C

C-

C-

D

F

Grade Chg



Least and Most Flexible 2010 Vehicles ( by Vehicle Category )

Least Flexible 2010 Models Most Flexible 2010 Models

Price Flex Score for 2010

Chevrolet Impala (Score: 3)

Chevrolet Traverse (Score: 1)

Chevrolet Avalanche (Score: 26)

Acura RL (Score: 3)

Lexus SC 430 (Score: 10)

Infiniti FX 35 (Score: 2)

Chevrolet Malibu (Score: 1)

Ford Edge (Score: 2)

Honda Odyssey (Score: 11)

Volkswagen Jetta SportWagen (Score: 3)

GMC Terrain (Score: 7)

Ford Explorer Sport Trac (Score: 2)

MINI Cooper Convertible (Score: 18)

Scion xB (Score: 12)

Ford Transit Connect Wagon (Score: 5)

Large Car

Large SUV

Large Truck

Luxury Car

Luxury Sport Car

Luxury SUV

Midsize Car

Midsize SUV

Minivan

Small Car

Small SUV

Small Truck

Sport Car

Subcompact Car

Van

Ford Taurus (Score: 99)

Nissan Armada (Score: 88)

Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck (Score: 99)

Mercedes-Benz S-Class (Score: 92)

Audi R8 (Score: 83)

Acura ZDX (Score: 95)

Honda Accord Coupe (Score: 100)

Jeep Wrangler Unlimited (Score: 96)

Volkswagen Routan (Score: 94)

Honda Civic Sedan (Score: 100)

Mazda Tribute (Score: 92)

Toyota Tacoma (Score: 92)

Hyundai Genesis Coupe (Score: 98)

Toyota Yaris (Score: 95)

GMC Savana Passenger (Score: 96)

Vehicle Category Least Flexible Most Flexible

Score Make Model

Chevrolet

Ford

Infiniti

Acura

Volkswagen

Audi

GMC

Lexus

Cadillac

Toyota

Malibu

Edge

FX35

RL

Jetta SportWagen

A8 L

Canyon

LX 570

SRX

4Runner

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

6

7

Score Make Model

Honda

Ford

Toyota

Hyundai

Mitsubishi

Jeep

Acura

Dodge

Volkswagen

Kia

Accord Coupe

Taurus

Tundra 2WD Truck

Genesis Coupe

Lancer

Wrangler Unlimited

ZDX

Charger

Routan

Rio

100

99

99

98

98

96

95

94

94

93

Below are the highest and lowest Price Flex Scores for 2010 models. Scores range from 1 to 100. A score of 1 is the lowest Price Flex Score, which indicates little or no negotiating power. A score of 100 is the highest Price Flex Score, meaning there is a big range of transaction prices for that model.

ONLY ONE MODEL PER MAKE WAS SELECTED FOR THE LEAST AND MOST FLEXIBLE MODELS.


Least and Most Flexible 2011 Vehicles ( by Vehicle Category )

Least Flexible 2011 Models Most Flexible 2011 Models

Price Flex Scores for 2011

Buick Lucerne (Score: 4)

Chevrolet Traverse (Score: 4)

Ford Super Duty F-450 (Score: 26)

Audi A8 (Score: 1)

Audi A5 (Score: 3)

Audi Q7 (Score: 2)

Chevrolet Malibu (Score: 14)

Ford Explorer (Score: 6)

Honda Odyssey (Score: 61)

Chevrolet Cruze (Score: 7)

GMC Terrain (Score: 10)

GMC Canyon (Score: 5)

Volkswagen Eos (Score: 15)

MINI Cooper Clubman (Score: 37)

Ford Transit Connect (Score: 7)

Large Car

Large SUV

Large Truck

Luxury Car

Luxury Sport Car

Luxury SUV

Midsize Car

Midsize SUV

Minivan

Small Car

Small SUV

Small Truck

Sport Car

Subcompact Car

Van

Dodge Charger (Score: 96)

Nissan Armada (Score: 96)

Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck (Score: 99)

Lexus GS 350 (Score: 94)

Chevrolet Corvette (Score: 95)

Lexus RX 350 (Score: 79)

Honda Accord Sedan (Score: 100)

Nissan Murano (Score: 94)

Volkswagen Routan (Score: 86)

Honda Civic Sedan (Score:100)

Mitsubishi Outlander Sport (Score: 92)

Toyota Tacoma (Score: 93)

Mitsubishi Eclipse (Score: 98)

Toyota Yaris (Score: 99)

GMC Savana Cargo Van (Score: 97)

Vehicle Category Least Flexible Most Flexible

Score Make Model

Audi

Lincoln

Buick

Chevrolet

GMC

Cadillac

Ford

Volkswagen

Volvo

Lexus

A8

Town Car

Lucerne

Traverse

Acadia

SRX

Explorer

Jetta Sedan

XC 90

LX 570

1

3

4

4

5

6

6

8

8

9

Score Make Model

Honda

Toyota

Mitsubishi

GMC

Nissan

Dodge

Chevrolet

Ford

Lexus

Mazda

Accord Sedan

Yaris

Eclipse

Savana Cargo Van

Maxima

Charger

Corvette

Mustang

GS 350

Tribute

100

99

98

97

97

96

95

95

94

91

Below are the highest and lowest Price Flex Scores for 2011 models. Scores range from 1 to 100. A score of 1 is the lowest Price Flex Score, which indicates little or no negotiating power. A score of 100 is the highest Price Flex Score, meaning there is a big range of transaction prices for that model.

ONLY ONE MODEL PER MAKE WAS SELECTED FOR THE LEAST AND MOST FLEXIBLE MODELS.


Greatest Discounts

Rank Make % Below MSRP

Volkswagen

Saab

Volvo

Chevrolet

Mazda

19.4%

18.1%

17.5%

17.5%

17.1%

1

2

3

4

5

The greatest percent below MSRP helps identify the biggest consumer discounts of the month. Below, TrueCar ranks 2010 and 2011 vehicles with average transaction prices that comprise the greatest percent off the make or model’s average MSRP.

Nissan

Mercedes-Benz

Dodge

Chevrolet

Lexus

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY

8%

10%

12%

14%

Makes with the Greatest Discount Trends on 2011 Vehicles

Top Discounts for 2010 Makes

Rank Make % Below MSRP

Nissan

Mercedes-Benz

Dodge

Chevrolet

Lexus

12.8%

12.6%

11.6%

11.6%

11.2%

1

2

3

4

5

Top Discounts for 2011 Makes

Rank Make / Model % Below MSRP

Volkswagen Routan

Nissan Titan

Mazda MX-5 Miata

Chrysler Sebring

GMC Sierra 1500

24.6%

23.2%

22.1%

21.5%

21.3%

1

2

3

4

5

Top Discounts for 2010 Models

Rank Make / Model % Below MSRP

Chevrolet Impala

Mitsubishi Galant

Nissan Titan

Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck

Cadillac DTS

21.3%

20.3%

18.5%

18.1%

17.1%

1

2

3

4

5

Top Discounts for 2011 Models

DISCOUNTS ARE BASED ON A PERCENTAGE

BELOW MSRP (STICKER PRICE).


Greatest Discounts ( Continued... )

The greatest percent below MSRP helps identify the biggest consumer discounts of the month. Below, TrueCar ranks 2010 and 2011 vehicles with average transaction prices that comprise the greatest percent off the make or model’s average MSRP.

2010 Top Discounts ( by Vehicle Category )

Volkswagen Routan

Nissan Titan

Mazda MX-5 Miata

Chrysler Sebring

Chevrolet Aveo

Cadillac CTS Sedan

Honda Civic Hybrid

Cadillac Escalade

Chevrolet Corvette

Dodge Journey

Chrysler 300

Mazda CX-9

Jeep Liberty

Ford Ranger

Chevrolet Express Cargo Van

Minivan

Large Truck

Sport Car

Midsize Car

Subcompact Car

Luxury Car

Small Car

Luxury SUV

Luxury Sport Car

Midsize SUV

Large Car

Large SUV

Small SUV

Small Truck

Van

24.6%

23.2%

22.1%

21.5%

20.5%

20.5%

19.7%

19.1%

19.0%

18.9%

18.5%

17.6%

17.4%

17.0%

16.1%

Vehicle Category Model % Below MSRP

2011 Top Discounts ( by Vehicle Category )

Chevrolet Impala

Mitsubishi Galant

Nissan Titan

Nissan Sentra

Cadillac DTS

Nissan Armada

Dodge Nitro

Jeep Liberty

Nissan Frontier

Chevrolet Aveo

Chevrolet Express Cargo Van

Mercedes-Benz GL-Class

Infiniti G37 Sedan

Ford Mustang

Toyota Sienna

Large Car

Midsize Car

Large Truck

Small Car

Luxury Car

Large SUV

Midsize SUV

Small SUV

Small Truck

Subcompact Car

Van

Luxury SUV

Luxury Sport Car

Sport Car

Minivan

21.3%

20.3%

18.5%

18.3%

17.1%

16.6%

13.7%

12.9%

12.5%

12.4%

12.3%

12.2%

10.9%

10.0%

7.9%

Vehicle Category Model % Below MSRP

% OFF INDICATES THE AVERAGE DISCOUNT FROM MSRP.


Greatest Discounts ( Continued... )

Largest Total Incentives for February

Rank Make / Model

Cadillac DTS

Chevrolet Impala

Nissan Titan

Mitsubishi Endeavor

BMW 3 Series

Customer Cash Rebate

$0

$0

$4,500

$4,500

$3,500

Dealer Cash

$7,000

$5,000

$0

$0

$0

1

2

3

4

5

Models with Largest Total Incentives

This table shows the highest incentive for each brand ranked. Generally, incentives are active throughout the month in which TrueTrends by TrueCar is released. Though active at the time of the reports’ release, incentives are subject to change without notice. Check for updates on the TrueCar price report for each model and with your dealer. All models are from the 2011 model year.

Top Discounts ( by Vehicle Category )

Luxury Sport Car

Van

Luxury Car

Midsize Car

Large Truck

Small Car

Large Car

Large SUV

Luxury SUV

Midsize SUV

Minivan

Sport Car

Small SUV

Small Truck

Subcompact Car

7%

7%

7%

7%

6%

6%

6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

Vehicle Category Average % Below MSRPLuxury sport cars, vans, luxury cars, and midsize cars offer the greatest discounts at an average below MSRP of 7%. Subcompact cars have the smallest discounts at 3%.


Best Day of the Month to Buy a Car

Best Day to Buy - February 26th, 2011Average Discount: 7.59%

Worst Day to Buy - March 7, 2011Average Discount: 5.40%

MARCHFEBRUARY

Best and Worst Days of the Month to Buy a Car ( Discount % Off MSRP )

FEB 16 FEB 20 FEB 24 FEB 28 MAR 4 MAR 8 MAR 12 MAR 16

Our projections for the best and worst day to buy a new vehicle are rooted in an analysis of historical sales as well as short-term forecasts. Our projections over the next 31 days suggest that the best day to buy a car is actually Saturday, February 26th. While the worst day to buy a car will likely be Monday, March 7th.

Consumer Tip of the Month

8.0%

7.0%

5.0%

6.0%


Top Vehicles ( by Vehicle Category )

Top Vehicles ( Overall )

Greatest Price Drop Month Over Month

2011 Mercedes-Benz S-Class

2010 Chrysler Town & Country

2010 Dodge Journey

2010 Dodge Avenger

2011 Ford Flex

2011 Volvo S60

2011 GMC Acadia

2011 GMC Sierra 1500

2011 Land Rover LR4

2011 Toyota Tacoma

2010 Chrysler PT Cruiser Classic

2011 Hyundai Accent

2011 Chevrolet Camaro

2011 Ford Escape

Luxury Car

Minivan

Midsize SUV

Midsize Car

Large Car

Luxury Sport Car

Large SUV

Large Truck

Luxury SUV

Small Truck

Small Car

Subcompact Car

Sport Car

Small SUV

($3,412)

($761)

($654)

($517)

($517)

($421)

($398)

($378)

($364)

($318)

($279)

($181)

($154)

($107)

Vehicle Category Year / Make / Model $ Drop From Last Month

2011 Mercedes-Benz S-Class

2010 Chrysler Town & Country

2010 Dodge Journey

2010 Dodge Avenger

2011 Ford Flex

1

2

3

4

4

($3,412)

($761)

($654)

($517)

($517)

Rank Year / Make / Model $ Drop From Last Month

For each body type, TrueCar tracks the average transaction price for each trim and lists vehicles with the greatest drop in price month over month. TrueCar also ranks the trims for unique makes with the overall greatest drop in price from January 14th, 2011 to February 10th, 2011.


Shortest to Longest Days in Inventory ( by Vehicle Category )

2010 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2010 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory

January’s Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory

Luxury SUV

Small SUV

Midsize SUV

Large SUV

Luxury Car

Minivan

Luxury Sport Car

Midsize Car

Small Truck

Large Car

Small Car

Large Truck

Van

Sport Car

Subcompact Car

39 Days

42 Days

44 Days

51 Days

52 Days

54 Days

57 Days

61 Days

63 Days

72 Days

75 Days

76 Days

78 Days

84 Days

94 Days

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Rank Vehicle Catgegory Average Days in Inventory

TrueCar ranks the vehicles that spend, on average, the shortest and longest days on the lot before they sell. We rank by both overall shortest / longest days in inventory and by category. Vehicles that spend little time in inventory are typically in high demand, while vehicles that spend an extended time in inventory are in low demand.

February, 2010 - 44 Days

January, 2011 - 57 Days

February, 2011 - 57 Days

Shortest & Longest Days in Inventory

Industry Wide Average Days in Inventory

Rank Model / Year Days in Inventory

Ford Explorer

Hyundai Elantra

Honda Fit

Ford F-150

Volkswagen Jetta

Toyota Prius

Ford Explorer Sport Trac

Toyota Corolla

Dodge Avenger

Chrysler Town & Country

81 Days

84 Days

86 Days

88 Days

90 Days

90 Days

94 Days

96 Days

96 Days

103 Days

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Cadillac CTS

Chevrolet Malibu

Jeep Liberty

Chevrolet Camaro

Ford Focus

Hyundai Accent

Honda Crosstour

Chrysler PT Cruiser

RAM Ram 2500

Honda Civic Hybrid

278 Days

246 Days

238 Days

235 Days

231 Days

221 Days

220 Days

219 Days

217 Days

214 Days

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


January’s Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory ( Continued... )

Highest Percentage of 2010 Vehicles Sold

Highest Percentage of 2011 Vehicles Sold

Model Year Share

Rank % of Sales

smart

Saab

Dodge

Suzuki

Toyota

95.2%

77.3%

72.4%

51.6%

26.2%

1

2

3

4

5

Rank % of Sales

BMW

Jaguar

Chevrolet

Lexus

Porsche

97.2%

95.8%

95.4%

95.0%

93.3%

1

2

3

4

5

Model Year Share shows the percentage share of 2010 model year vehicles sold within the last month versus vehicles of any other model year sold. Generally, the higher the model year share value, the higher the discount a consumer can expect to receive on that given model. It also reflects that dealers are more likely to cut deals on a 2010 model in order to make room for a 2011. At this time of year, many brand’s model year mix are predominantly comprised of 2011’s. The makes with the lowest percentage of 2010 model year share are BMW, Jaguar, and Chevrolet.

2009 Vehicles make up 0.1% of all sales. 2010 vehicles make up 15.3% of total sales while the 2011’s make up 84.5% of total sales.

2009 Vehicles

2010 Vehicles

2011 Vehicles

.1%

84.5%

15.3%

Percent Industry Share of Model Year Vehicles

2011 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2011 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory


Chevrolet Volt

Dodge Challenger

BMW X3

Ford Explorer

Dodge Durango

Audi Q5

Porsche Cayenne

Chrysler 200

Toyota Corolla

Dodge Journey

8 Days

10 Days

10 Days

11 Days

11 Days

12 Days

13 Days

14 Days

14 Days

14 Days

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Toyota Camry Hybrid

Kia Rio

Nissan Versa

Hyundai Accent

Mazda2

Cadillac DTS

Kia Sedona

Ford Focus

Infiniti M37

Chevrolet Corvette

123 Days

110 Days

94 Days

93 Days

93 Days

89 Days

86 Days

86 Days

84 Days

82 Days

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Make

Make

About UsTrueCar Inc. is an automotive solutions provider focused on changing how cars are sold by providing a significantly better customer experience while helping qualified dealer partners to gain incremental market share and reduce costs. TrueCar.com is a transparent, visual publisher of new car transaction data. TrueCar.com price reports help both dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by providing an accurate, comprehensive and simple understanding of what others actually paid for the identically equipped new car over the last 30 days both locally and nationally. TrueCar, Inc. works with a nation-wide network of nearly 5,000 Certified Dealers that provide up-front, no-haggle, competitive pricing to assist some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership

Contact UsTrueCar Inc.225 Santa Monica Blvd, 6th FloorSanta Monica, CA 90401(800) [email protected]

Visit us at www.truecar.com

and service organizations to meet the auto buying needs of their members and customers. These partnerships include AAA, American Express, USAA and more than 60 others. Collectively these audiences represent over 1M in-market customers each month. TrueCar, Inc. is head-quartered in Santa Monica, CA and has offices in San Francisco. The company was founded in 2005 and has been profitable since 2009. With nearly 200% year over year growth TrueCar has driven over 200,000 sales and is developing a suite of transaction oriented products and services centered on transparency and radical clarity as a result of comprehensively analyzing market data and information.

DisclaimerThis report and the information contained herein is for your noncommercial, personal use on an “as-is, as available” basis and may be used by you for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this report and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The information contained in this report may

include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, or their respective partners, officers, directors, employees, or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special, or consequen-tial, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this report.


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