automated vehicles and vmt: environment, health, …...2017/04/11 · automated vehicles and vmt:...
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Automated Vehicles and VMT: Environment, Health, Livability, Climate
1 September 2016 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
Chris Ganson, Governor’s Office of Planning and Research
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2
Chris Ganson, Governor’s Office of Planning and Research*
*For identification purposes only
September 2016 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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Automated vehicles will make vehicle travel easy!
…for everyone
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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4
What will our world be like when vehicle travel is easy for everyone?
Climate
Health
Environment
Equity
Livability
Traffic/Accessibility https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/white-paper/cutting-greenhouse-gas-emissions-is-only-the-beginning-a-literature-review-of-the-co-benefits-of-reducing-vehicle-miles-traveled/
VMT
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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*
* For identification purposes only
Forthcoming…
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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VMT GHG Possible Effect of Driverless Vehicles
↑ ↑ Easy to go by car
6 March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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VMT GHG Possible Effect of Driverless Vehicles
↑ ↑ Easy to go by car
↑ ↑ Vehicles park themselves remotely, do errands, collect family members
7 March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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VMT GHG Possible Effect of Driverless Vehicles
↑ ↑ Easy to go by car
↑ ↑ Vehicles park themselves remotely, do errands, collect family members
↑ ↑ Replacement of line-haul transit
8
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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VMT GHG Possible Effect of Driverless Vehicles
↑ ↑ Easy to go by car
↑ ↑ Vehicles park themselves remotely, do errands, collect family members
↑ ↑ Replacement of line-haul transit
↑ ↑ Replacement of bike and walk trips
> 23,000 deaths/y attributable to physical inactivity in California
Achieving CA’s mode share targets:
- 2,095 fewer deaths annually
- $1 billion-$15 billion/y prevented premature deaths and disability
Increasing Walking, Cycling, and Transit: Improving Californians’ Health, Saving Costs, and Reducing Greenhouse Gases (Maizlish, N.) https://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/Documents/IncreasingWalkingCyclingTransitFinalReport2016rev2017-01-28.pdf
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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VMT GHG Possible Effect of Driverless Vehicles
↑ ↑ Easy to go by car
↑ ↑ Vehicles park themselves remotely, do errands, collect family members
↑ ↑ Replacement of line-haul transit
↑ ↑ Replacement of bike and walk trips
~ ↑or↓ Right-sizing of vehicles
10
or ?
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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11
So what should we do?
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
12
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
13
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
14
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
15
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
16
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
17
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
18
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy
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• Shared use
• Shared ride
• Zero emissions
• Right-priced
• Transit-supportive
• Equitable
• Well-behaved
19
Synthesis of current thinking: Harnessing automation for the public good
Prospects?
March 2017 Deliberative, not a statement of OPR policy