automated + connected vehicles: implications for vancouver … · 2016-12-14 · presentation -...
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AUTOMATED + CONNECTED VEHICLES:
IMPLICATIONS FOR VANCOUVER & NEXT STEPS
Council Presentation | 2016-12-14
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1900: All horses.
Impact to cities could be as significant as the invention of the car.
Policy decisions will determine their impact.
Utopian vision: Automated vehicles complement active transportation and mass transit, radically reduce the total number of cars, increase safety and mobility options, and free up public space currently used for parking
Nightmare vision: Automated vehicles induce longer commutes and sprawling development, compete with walking and cycling, and reduce investment in high capacity mass transit.
1913: All cars.
5th Avenue, NYC
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Potential Benefits
• Improved safety
• Increased mobility options
• Fewer cars overall = More space for walking, cycling, transit, public realm
• Decreased emissions
• Complement mass transit with flexible, on-demand shared service
• Improved transportation planning tools through better data
• Increased productivity during commute time
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Potential Risks
• More driving: Longer commutes and induced sprawl
• Worsened health: Decreased walking and cycling
• Reduced investment in mass transit
• Hacking & cybersecurity threats
• Loss of privacy
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Uncertainties
• Regulations at all levels
• Public acceptance
• Insurance & liability implications
• Safety benefits in complex urban areas
• Ethics
• Transition period
• Shifting employment landscape
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TECHNOLOGY PRIMER
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AUTO INDUSTRY MEGATRENDS
• Automated
• Connected
• Electric
• Shared
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AUTO INDUSTRY MEGATRENDS
• Automated
• Connected
• Electric
• Shared
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AUTO INDUSTRY MEGATRENDS
• Automated
• Connected
• Electric
• Shared
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AUTO INDUSTRY MEGATRENDS
• Automated
• Connected
• Electric
• Shared
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Growing car share in the City of Vancouver
Source: 2013-2015 Panel Surveys. City of Vancouver.
AUTO INDUSTRY MEGATRENDS
• Automated
• Connected
• Electric
• Shared
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U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx with Google Car
Timeframes for emergence & adoption • Predictions vary widely
• Level 5 vehicles could be available in 5 years…. or they could be decades away
• Early adoption most likely for shared fleets, transit, goods movement
• Many potential benefits will require significant levels of adoption to be realized.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4Time
100%
Market Penetration
0%
Early adoption most likely for:
• Shared fleets • Transit • Goods movement
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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
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Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
• Driverless shared fleets = Micro-transit on demand
• Increasingly blurred lines between ride sourcing and public transit
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TRANSIT
• 2016: Mercedes tested driverless bus technology in complex urban environment in the Netherlands
• Near term real world: Driver-assistance technology
• Platooning
• Safety warnings
• Precision docking at stops
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The Evolution of Ride Sourcing
• Today: Driverless taxis being tested in U.S., Europe, and Asia
• Near future: Uber, Lyft, Ford, GM + intend to deploy large fleets of shared driverless vehicles within 5 years
• Potential to reduce private car ownership, replace suburban transit routes, complement high capacity mass transit
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Tesla Announcement on October 19th 2016
• New vehicles will come with necessary hardware for complete autonomous function
• Functionality will depend on existing software validation and regulatory approval
• Plans to allow Tesla owners to participate in for-profit Tesla Network (ride sourcing) – details to be released next year
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November 2016: Self-driving beer truck
completes 120 mile trip
In the U.S., trucking is a $700B industry and
roughly a third is driver compensation.
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Federal & State/Provincial Policy
In the U.S.
• Comprehensive federal policy issued September 2016; will be updated annually
• Includes direction on safety, data sharing, privacy
• Establishes jurisdictional boundaries and includes model state policy
U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx with Google Car
“Safer, more accessible driving. Less congested, less polluted roads. That’s what harnessing technology for good
can look like. But we have to get it right. Americans deserve to know they’ll be safe today even as we
develop and deploy the technologies of tomorrow.”
- Barack Obama
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Federal & State/Provincial Policy
In the U.S.
• Comprehensive federal policy issued September 2016; will be updated annually
• Includes direction on safety, data sharing, privacy
• Establishes jurisdictional boundaries and includes model state policy
In Canada
• 2016 Federal budget approved $7.3M over two years to support development of national regulatory framework for emerging vehicle technologies
• 2015 Canada Transportation Act Review: recommends harmonizing Canada’s approach with U.S. legislation with respect to testing and operation on public roads
• Province is waiting for federal legislation, supportive of further regional discussion
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Provincial approach to ride sourcing
Emerging Principles
1. Ensure passenger comfort and vehicle safety
2. Meet consumer demand
3. Guarantee accessibility
4. Ensure a fair and level playing field
5. Build a streamlined and modernized passenger transportation sector
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Regional Objectives
• Increase walking, cycling, transit
• Reduce need to own car
• Reduce distances driven
• Improve regional accessibility
• Ensure safety
• Reduce reliance on fossil fuels
• Support compact urban area
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Preferred regional scenario • comprehensive road pricing
• vehicle sharing policies • integrated payment
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City of Vancouver Automated Vehicle Near-term Work Plan
1. Work together to share information and develop coordinated policy as technology evolves
2. Explore and test innovative ideas that support mobility and safety goals
3. Future-proof parking and other civic infrastructure (e.g. transportation, utilities, digital/wireless)
4. Plan for a resilient economy that can respond to a changing job market
5. Encourage shared approach that supports municipal and regional objectives , e.g.
• Mobility pricing
• Shared mobility
• Road space reallocation
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Mercedes F 015 concept car, 2015. Source: Verge
REIMAGINING OUR STREETS Re-allocate road space as automated, connected, electric, & shared vehicles
become real • Fewer + narrower travel lanes • Fewer on-street parking spaces
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Mercedes F 015 concept car, 2015. Source: Verge
• Fewer + narrower travel lanes • Fewer on-street parking spaces • More pick-up + drop-off spaces • More space for civic priorities • Smart infrastructure
REIMAGINING OUR STREETS Re-allocate road space as automated, connected, electric, & shared vehicles
become real • Fewer + narrower travel lanes • Fewer on-street parking spaces
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City of Vancouver Automated Vehicle Near-term Work Plan
1. Work together to share information and develop coordinated policy as technology evolves
2. Explore and test innovative ideas that support mobility and safety goals
3. Future-proof parking and other civic infrastructure (e.g. transportation, utilities, digital/wireless)
4. Plan for a resilient economy that can respond to a changing job market
5. Encourage shared approach that supports municipal and regional objectives , e.g.
• Mobility pricing
• Shared mobility
• Road space reallocation