australia’s future population – where are we going? patrick corr director, demography program...
TRANSCRIPT
Australia’s future population – where are we going?
Patrick CorrDirector, Demography ProgramAustralian Bureau of Statistics
3 March 2011
What are population projections?
• Projections are not forecasts or predictionsSimply illustrations of the growth and change in
population IF: certain assumptions about the levels of fertility,
mortality, internal and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period.
The role of the ABS• National statistical agency
Impartial and objective• History of ABS projections:
ABS has been producing projections since Sept 1950• Census data is used in the development of ABS
population projections• ABS is not legally required to produce population
projections, however, ABS is in the best position to do so.
Assumptions: 2008 releaseLife expectancy at birth (years)
Total fertility rate (babies per woman)
Net overseas migration(persons)
Males Females
Series A 2.0 220,000 93.9 96.1
Series B 1.8 180,000 85.0 88.0
Series C 1.6 140,000 85.0 88.0
Projection outcomes
Series B: 31.4
Series A: 35.0
Series C: 28.7
Population distribution• High population growth in the capital cities
Perth and Brisbane are projected to grow at the highest rate (average annual growth of 1.6%) over the period to 2056, closely followed by Darwin (1.5%).
• According to Series A, Melbourne will overtake Sydney as the most populous city in Australia in 2039.
An ageing population2010 2030
Median age: 37.5 years Median age: 41.1 years
Series B
An ageing population2010 2030
Median age: 37.5 years Median age: 41.1 years
Series B
An ageing population2010 2030
Median age: 37.5 years Median age: 41.1 years
Series B
Projected working age population (persons aged 15 to 64 years), 2010 - 2040
Pe
rso
ns
(mill
ion
s)
30 June
Growth rates, working age population (persons aged 15 to 64 years), 2010 - 2040
Gro
wth
ra
te (
%)
Year ending 30 June
Projected population, persons aged 15 and 65 years, Series B, 2010 - 2040
Pe
rso
ns
30 June
Key projection series• Medium- to long-term projections
ABS: Population Projections, Australia, 2006-2101 (cat. no. 3222.0)
Treasury: Intergenerational Report (IGR) 2010• Short-term projections
ABS: Treasury Budget projections (found in Budget Paper 3)
ABS: AEC Enrolment projections
Key users of Projections• State and territory planning agencies
- Regional projections• Treasury
- Intergenerational Report- Budget
• Health planning and reporting• Sustainable Population Strategy
Long-term projections
ABS (Series B) IGR 2010Total fertility rate 1.8 babies per woman 1.9 babies per woman
(from 2013)
Life expectancy - males
85.0 years 87.7 years
Life expectancy - females
88.0 years 90.5 years
NOM 180,000 180,000 (from 2012)
Population 33.9 million 35.9 million
Average Annual Growth rate (2010-50)
1.4% 1.2%
Population at 2050
Short-term projections
ABS (Series B) Budget paper 3Total fertility rate 1.8 babies per woman 1.9 babies per woman
Life expectancy - males
85.0 years 85.0 years
Life expectancy - females
88.0 years 88.0 years
NOM 180,000 222,000 (180,000 by 2013)
Population 23.0 million 23.6 million
Average Annual Growth rate (2010-13)
1.5% 1.9%
Population at 2013
Limitations of population projections
• Projections can not predict the future; assumptions are often based on past trends.
• No method of calculating projections can account for the recent dramatic changes in NOM.
• Dealing with uncertainty.
Using projections in a informed way• Obtain regular updates• Understand the assumptions used to create the
projections• Understand what you are using the data for• Use recent estimated resident population (ERP) data
to see where the population is tracking and make comparisons to the projected populationCurrently, ERP is higher than Series A (2008 series)
See you at Connect with Census…