bivariate corr slides
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Bivariate Correlation and Regression PSYCHOLOGY 3800 , LAB 002
In Today’s Lab
• split plot ANOVA feedback link • introduction to correlation and regression • example analyses • assignment #8 summary
Assignment #6: Feedback
• the statistical component was typically well done (woot!) • check lab blog for list of commonly made errors:
http://uwo3800g.tumblr.com/post/80090405911/assignment-6-commonly-made-errors
Correlation & Regression: Overview
Correlation indicates the nature and strength of a relationship
Nature
• direction of the relationship between variables
positive negative zero
Correlation indicates the nature and strength of a relationship
Nature
• direction of the relationship between variables
positive negative zero
as one variable increases/decreases, so does the other
Correlation indicates the nature and strength of a relationship
Nature
• direction of the relationship between variables
positive negative zero
as one variable increases/decreases, the other does the opposite
Correlation indicates the nature and strength of a relationship
Nature
• direction of the relationship between variables
positive negative zero
no relationship (in this case) but could also indicate non-linear relationship
indicates the strength and nature of a relationship
Strength
• how far the plotted data points fall from one other • closer together = stronger relationship (value closer to 1)
Correlation
strong moderate weak/none
1 r 0
• significance of correlation is based on strength of the relationship between variable (stronger = more significant)
Example…
r = -.83
negative relationship strong relationship
Correlation
Simple Regression
• a simple regression is similar to correlation: deals with the relationship between two variables
predictor (x): variable used to make a prediction criterion (y): variable being predicted
• uses relationship data for the two variables to:
(1) assess whether x adds significantly to the prediction of y (significance of the model)
(2) calculate a predicted y-score given a specific value of x
Simple Regression
Significance of Relationship/Model
• F-value (outputted in ANOVA table) • assesses overall model fit (i.e., if x adds significantly to the prediction of y) • if significant (p < .05): slope of the regression line is significantly different than zero • if slope of the regression line was 0, we wouldn’t be able to predict anything (no relation between two variables)
• t-value (outputted in Coefficients table) • assesses each predictor in the model (only one this week) • indicates whether each predictor adds significantly to the prediction of the criterion
Simple Regression
Other Indicators of Effectiveness of Prediction
(1) standard error of the estimate o in general: the average distance between each actual score and its predicted score o can indicate how closely (within how many points) we can predict a score on x (outcome variable) by knowing a score on y (predictor variable)
(2) r2
o proportion of variance in y (outcome variable) that is accounted for by x (predictor variable)
Simple Regression
€
ˆ y = b0 + b1(x)
• regression equation represents line of best fit that runs through the data b0 = intercept of line of best fit (constant) b1 = slope of line of best fit (unstandardized coefficient) x = value of predictor y = predicted criterion score
• accuracy of the prediction will depend on the relationship between the two variables (x and y)
as x and y are more strongly related, x will do a better job at predicting y
Prediction
Level of Studying
Exam
Gra
de
Simple Regression
Prediction
€
ˆ y = b0 + b1(x)
y-intercept
Simple Regression
Prediction
€
ˆ y = b0 + b1(x)
Level of Studying
Exam
Gra
de
y-intercept
slope
Simple Regression
Prediction
€
ˆ y = b0 + b1(x)
Level of Studying
Exam
Gra
de
y-intercept
slope
studying score prior to exam
Simple Regression
Prediction
€
ˆ y = b0 + b1(x)
Level of Studying
Exam
Gra
de
y-intercept
slope
predicted score on exam
Simple Regression
Prediction
€
ˆ y = b0 + b1(x)
Level of Studying
Exam
Gra
de
studying score prior to exam
Connecting Correlation and Regression
• neither correlation nor regression imply causation phrase interpretations/conclusions correctly consider alternative explanations/variables
Example Analysis
The Study
• interested in which variables are associated with grades on the final exam for Psych 3800
Bivariate Correlation
Analyze Correlate Bivariate
Move all variables into the “Variables” box. Select the “Options” menu.
Bivariate Correlation
Options Menu
Request that descriptive statistics be outputted (means and standard deviations)
Bivariate Correlation
Output
average rating for each construct variability in ratings for each construct
number of participants scores analyzed for each
construct
Bivariate Correlation
Output
Bivariate Correlation
Output exact significance values given below each correlation coefficient
overall significance levels indicated using asterisk (*) markers
Bivariate Correlation
Conclusions
Correlation between exam grades in Psych 3800 and:
(a) enthusiasm toward pie r = -.182, ns (b) pre-exam shots r = -.341, p < .01 (c) tendency to sleepwalk r = .132, ns (d) level of studying r = .383, p < .001
“The results revealed a significant negative correlation between grades on the Psychology 3800 final exam and one’s tendency to consume pre-exam shots, r = -.341, p < .01.”
Bivariate Regression
Analyze Regression Linear
Enter your predictor variable as the independent variable, and your criterion variable as the dependent variable.
Bivariate Regression
Save Menu … doing this will create two new columns in your data file
F(1, 78) = 13.410, p < .001
Bivariate Regression
Output: Test of Significance
“The results revealed that studying adds significantly to the prediction of final exam grades in Psychology 3800.”
contains info about the bivariate
regression
contains info about the error
Bivariate Regression
Additional Information About Prediction
R correlation between variables (absolute value) r = .383
R Square proportion of variance in exam grades accounted for by studying r2 = .147 (14.7%)
Std. Error of Estimate average difference between actual and predicted scores sy.x = 8.898
Bivariate Regression
Additional Information About Prediction
t(78) = 3.662, p < .001
residual df from the “ANOVA” table
Significance of each predictor in the model (here, only one predictor)…
Bivariate Regression
Output: Regression Equation
€
ˆ y = b0 + b1(x)
€
ˆ y = 41.603+ 3.207(x)
€
ˆ y = 41.603+ 3.207(7)
€
ˆ y = 64.052
predicted exam score for someone who studies quite a bit (rating of 7 on 10-point Likert scale)
Bivariate Regression
Output: Prediction Equation
predicted score using prediction equation from previous slide
(some differences due to rounding)
differences between obtained score on predictor (56) and predicted score using equation (64.05426)
residual = 56 – 64.05426 residual = -8.05426 … we over-predicted by about 8 points
*these are the new columns that have been added to your data file
The Assignment
• not a results section (number your responses) but adhere to APA formatting
• run bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses in SPSS (report all statistics in APA style)
• be sure to answer ALL parts of each question and to submit all output
Assignment: Overview
Note: Because this assignment is straightforward, you are being asked to work independently to complete it. I can help you to run the data, but I cannot provide direction in answering the questions. All needed information was covered in lab and lecture. Additional help is in your textbook.