august 2017 ceri crude oil report...eri rude oil report page 4 endnotes 1 2 3 “market power, ope...

Relevant • Independent • Objective

CERI Crude Oil Report Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

However, more recently with the rise of the US shale and tight oil production, analysis suggests that OPEC power is eroding. US shale production is replacing OPEC production cuts almost barrel for barrel (Figure 2), highlighting the ineffectiveness of cuts on oil price ; this is expected to persist until the second quarter of 2018.

Figure 1: Evolution of OPEC and Oil Market Events

Is OPEC Losing its Mojo? Alpha Sow On November 30, 2016, in Vienna, OPEC and other oil producers led by Russia (NOPEC_R9+) reached an agreement to cut production totaling 1.81 million barrels per day (MMbpd) (1.2 MMbpd for OPEC and 0.6 MMbpd for NOPEC_R9+) for the first half of 2017. This was the first production cut in almost a decade, and the deal made among agreed producers was unforeseen to say the least, as up to that point, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members were defending their global market share and pump-at-will strategy, which was only setting the oil price lower as more oil came onto an already oversupplied market. The WTI price rose by more than 9% in November following the deal announcement. A few months later, during the 172nd OPEC Ministerial Conference on May 25, the November agreement was extended for nine more months, pushing WTI higher, but only by 2%. This article explores the effectiveness of the cartel’s production cut strategy on the oil price and describes future alternative strategies. Since its inception in September 1960, OPEC’s mission has been “…to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry.”2 In the past, the cartel has been associated with strong oil market power that was able to drive oil price changes in the world. Looking back, it had been successful at regulating oil supply from its members to maintain a certain price level. Figure 1 shows the organization’s majors’ market intervention since its inception in 1960.

August 2017

CERI Crude Oil Report


Figure 2: Production Changes and Price Volatility

Source: CERI; data source www.eia.gov

Even though a cartel is a “group of producers regulating oil supply,” recently, it failed to achieve the organization’s mission. Differences in geopolitical agenda aside, an internal structure shows a heterogeneous group where interests are sometimes misaligned. The fiscal break-even prices capture some of those differences (Figure 3). Figure 3: OPEC and Non-OPEC Members Fiscal Breakeven, 2017

Source: CERI; data source: Fitch

Combined, these economic and political factors explain the lack of compliance and the short longevity of some OPEC agreements and the overall mistrust in the cartel. New research from Duke University, KU Leuven and UCLA J. Asker et al. (2017) suggested, “Over the course of 34 years (1970-2014), the oil industry cartel not only drove up the cost of crude oil production by some $160 billion,3 it also helped change the direction of the oil industry.” Its epitome was OPEC market power and research placed the organization at the center of oil commodity price dynamics. Nonetheless, BP’s June 2017 Statistical Review echoed the declaration of Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih at CERAWeek in March 2017: “OPEC remains an important catalyst to the stability and sustainability of the market…. But history has also demonstrated that intervention in response to structural shifts is largely ineffective. That’s why Saudi Arabia does not support OPEC intervening to alleviate the impacts of long-term structural imbalances, as opposed to addressing short-term aberrations….” In short, OPEC can

handle temporary shocks by increasing or cutting production but is limited in the long-term trends. The structural shift that Mr. Al-Falih was referring to is the US shale boom that constitutes oil supply characterized by favorable economics due to high productivity and short production cycles such as manufacturing operations. The rapid growth shook pillars on which OPEC builds its supply management strategy. This situation could be contrasted with when high-cost producers like Alaska and Norway came online. Today, oil responds to a new paradigm of an abundance of relatively inexpensive resources, where oil price does not increase over time relative to other goods, and an increase of price responsiveness of global oil supply is dampening price volatility. Any increase in oil price is a signal for US shale producers to ramp up their drilling and production. Figure 4 shows a strong correlation between rig counts and WTI above 90%. A recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas FED) shows oil producers need only a $46 to $55 per barrel oil price to drill a new well profitably. The most dynamic shale plays such as the Permian, SCOOP/STACK and Eagle Ford are both at the lower end. Rig counts are projected to increase for the foreseeable future. Figure 4: Correlation between US Oil Rig Count and WTI Price

Source: Platts

However, one of the main hurdles of the US shale industry is its financing model. It relies on Reserve Based Lending – securing loans by the revenue stream that the borrower has from oil exploitation to reduce the cost of financing. Azar A. (SIPA, 2017) noted that for E&Ps rated between B and CCC–, “a 2 percent increase in London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), coupled with 1.5 percent higher credit spreads, would raise their interest expense per dollar borrowed by 30 percent.” At this pace, if the Dallas FED continues to hike the interest rate by 50 basis


points per year, LIBOR will be above 2 percent by the end of 2018. Hence, that will erode all the production efficiencies gained in the last couple of years and potentially increase bankruptcies, as happened in the second quarter of 2016. Combine the credit channel and increased production costs and we have clouds hanging over the bright future of US tight oil. Figure 5 illustrates that crude oversupply will persist in the coming quarters. Most of non-OPEC supply will come from the United States (0.70 MMbpd in 2017, 1.117 MMbpd in 2018), followed by Canada (0.16 MMbpd in 2017 and 2018), Brazil, and Kazakhstan. A decrease of OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity is expected in 2018 at 1.42 MMbpd against 2.11 MMbpd a year earlier. Figure 5: World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2017

The looming and persistent oil oversupply for the coming quarters is already being internalized by the organization. A diplomatic ballet is ongoing for an extension of the production cut until mid-2018. The recent Expo 2017 Astana held in Kazakhstan on September 10th was an opportunity for an informal meeting where Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kazakhstan and Russia showed positive signs that the cut extension will hold. This was followed up by the Nigerian official's declaration “… to exit the cut exemption between now and March.” However, Libya will probably be excused because of the recent re-emergence of ISIS in central and south Libya last month foreshadowing security uncertainties. Compliance for an extended production cut is expected among Saudi Arabia, UAE, Angola, Venezuela and Gabon. Furthermore, the largest OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia with more than 30%4 of OPEC production, is planning on issuing an Initial Public Offering (IPO) of its national company Saudi Aramco estimated at $2 trillion, and is very motivated to further cut and sustain oil prices close

to the $60 per barrel range.5 Combined, all these factors do not guarantee an increase of oil price at a level that matches the OPEC fiscal breakeven price. OPEC could explore other strategies. Supply Disruptions Many OPEC members are subject to political risks that might disrupt the supply. Since July 2013, the unplanned supply disruptions in global crude markets amounted to above 2 MMbpd; it skyrocketed to 3.65 MMbpd in May 2016 before falling under 2 MMbpd in June 2017. OPEC alone accounted for more than 50% of the disruptions. The following countries – Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq and Libya – are serious candidates for supply disruption due to political and security risks. Unexpected outages can have a significant influence on oil prices depending on how quickly it occurs and for how long. Monitoring Oil Exports Rather than Deepening Production Cuts The actual OPEC strategy is based on production quotas, but some countries, despite production cuts, are selling more oil in the market by reducing its domestic consumption or depleting its storage. Saudi Arabia has already reduced its exports to 6.66 MMbpd in August compared to over 7 MMbpd a month earlier. The leads from both sides – Saudi Arabia (OPEC) and Russia (NOPEC_R9+) – disclosed a plan to cut exports and ask others to do the same according to Kpler, a UK-based firm monitoring oil exports. OPEC’s August exports were down by 639,000 bpd courtesy of Saudi Arabia and UAE; Algeria, Angola, Iran and Kuwait increased their exports for the same timeframe. Monitoring exports rather than production is a big shift in the cartel’s strategy that might encounter challenges in implementation and the cooperation of both OPEC and NOPEC_R9+ members. Nevertheless, shifting tides are eroding OPEC market power. The cartel’s ability to face the US shale boom is compromised by competing goals: restoring market power and optimizing immediate gains in the time that marks a structural and long-term change in the market that even OPEC might not be able to handle.


Endnotes 1 www.opec.org 2 www.opec.org 3 “Market Power, OPEC and Production (Mis)Allocation,” John Asker, Allan Collard-Wexler and Jan De Loecker, NBER, September 2017. 4 www.eia.gov 5 www.bloomberg.com. Saudi Aramco IPO Pits London Against New York 6 WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-pushes-opec-on-new-tack-to-curb-oil-supplies-1505295002?mod=e2tw References 1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09

-10/saudi-arabia-venezuela-agree-to-leave-rebalancing-options-open

2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/big-oil-just-woke-up-to-the-threat-of-rising-electric-car-demand

3. http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Compliance-Hits-89-Percent-In-August.html

4. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/06/02/opecs-influence-on-oil-prices-waning/#68e1a26a4eb0

5. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OB11_12%202016.pdf

6. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OB05_072017.pdf

7. “Market Power, OPEC and Production (Mis)Allocation,” John Asker, Allan Collard-Wexler and Jan De Loecker, NBER, September 2017

8. https://www.dallasfed.org/en/research/events/2016/16oil.aspx

9. Missing OPEC The Unwelcome Return of Boom-Bust Oil Price Cycles- The Rapidan Group http://www.rapidangroup.com/

10. Global Oil & Gas Firms: Current State of Play, Vulnerabilities, and Implications for Financial Stability Daniel Beltran, November 18, 2016.

11. EIA’s oil outlook-www.eia.gov. 12. https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/crudeoil/

demand-nonoecd.php 13. www.bloomberg.com 14. Grant Smith and al. OPEC Agrees to First Oil Output

Cut in Eight Years 15. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/

static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20September%202017.pdf

16. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/data_graphs/MI072017.pdf

17. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

18. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.cfm 19. http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf 20. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09

-10/saudi-arabia-venezuela-agree-to-leave-rebalancing-options-open

21. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/iea-sees-strongest-global-oil-demand-growth-in-two-years

22. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-12/opec-is-said-to-discuss-extending-oil-cuts-by-more-than-3-months

23. https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OOTT%20%23opec&src=tyah

24. https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-oil-opec/update-1-nigeria-unlikely-to-join-opec-cuts-before-march-oil-minister-idUSL5N1LU5S7

25. https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-pushes-opec-on-new-tack-to-curb-oil-supplies-1505295002?mod=e2tw

http://www.opec.org

http://www.opec.org

http://www.eia.gov

http://www.bloomberg.com

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-pushes-opec-on-new-tack-to-curb-oil-supplies-1505295002?mod=e2tw



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-10/saudi-arabia-venezuela-agree-to-leave-rebalancing-options-open



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/big-oil-just-woke-up-to-the-threat-of-rising-electric-car-demand



http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Compliance-Hits-89-Percent-In-August.html



https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/06/02/opecs-influence-on-oil-prices-waning/#68e1a26a4eb0



http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OB11_12%202016.pdf



https://www.dallasfed.org/en/research/events/2016/16oil.aspx

https://www.dallasfed.org/en/research/events/2016/16oil.aspx

http://www.rapidangroup.com/

http://www.rapidangroup.com/

http://www.bloomberg.com

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20September%202017.pdf



http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/data_graphs/MI072017.pdf



http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf




https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OOTT%20%23opec&src=tyah

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OOTT%20%23opec&src=tyah

https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-oil-opec/update-1-nigeria-unlikely-to-join-opec-cuts-before-march-oil-minister-idUSL5N1LU5S7




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World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)

2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18

World Demand 94.8 96.1 97.7 99.1 95.3 95.6 96.7 96.8 96.5 97.9 97.8 98.7 97.9 99.0 99.4 100.0

OECD 46.4 46.9 47.3 47.4 46.7 46.0 47.3 47.4 46.9 47.0 47.4 47.8 46.9 46.9 47.8 47.8

non-OECD 48.4 49.3 50.4 51.7 48.7 49.6 49.4 49.4 49.6 50.9 50.4 50.9 50.9 52.1 51.7 52.2

World Supply 96.6 97.0 97.6 99.6 96.7 96.1 97.0 98.3 96.7 97.0 98.0 98.5 98.8 99.3 100.1 100.3

Non-OPEC 58.2 57.4 58.1 59.6 57.7 56.8 57.2 58.0 57.8 57.8 58.2 58.7 59.0 59.3 59.9 60.2

OPEC NGLs 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0

OPEC Crude 27.7 28.4 28.0 -4.5 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.4 32.1 32.3 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.9 33.2 33.1

Supply - Demand1 1.8 0.9 -0.1 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.2 -0.9 0.2

OECD

Stocks (MMbbls) 3015 3046 3052 3060 2985 3030 3016 3025 3016 3054 3068 3097

Days Cover 65 66 65 65 64 64 64 63 64 65 64 65

2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

High Price Case 55.55 57.20 55.00 56.10 56.10 57.20 58.30

Reference Case 48.71 43.33 50.20 52.00 44.88 49.23 51.70 48.11 50.00 51.00 51.00 52.00 53.00

Low Price Case 42.93 44.20 42.50 43.35 43.35 44.20 45.05

Sustainable

Capacity Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17

Saudi Arabia 12.20 10.05 10.03 10.00 2.15 2.17 2.20

Iran 3.75 3.79 3.81 3.82 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07

UAE 3.14 2.93 2.94 2.91 0.21 0.20 0.23

Kuwait 2.93 2.71 2.70 2.70 0.22 0.23 0.23

Qatar 0.67 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.05 0.06 0.06

Angola 1.78 1.66 1.67 1.69 0.12 0.11 0.09

Nigeria 1.70 1.57 1.64 1.66 0.13 0.06 0.04

Libya 0.65 0.84 1.01 0.87 -0.19 -0.36 -0.22

Algeria 1.13 1.06 1.07 1.06 0.07 0.06 0.07

Equatorial Guinea 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.03 0.02 0.02

Ecuador 0.56 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.03 0.02 0.02

Venezuela 2.20 2.04 2.03 2.02 0.16 0.17 0.18

Gabon 0.23 0.20 0.22 0.19 0.03 0.01 0.04

OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.08 28.10 28.39 28.19 2.98 2.69 2.89

Iraq1 4.66 4.50 4.49 4.48 0.16 0.17 0.18

Total OPEC 35.60 32.61 32.88 32.67 2.99 2.72 2.93

Production Spare Capacity vs Production


Data Appendix


A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-

tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip

Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward

prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2014 96.53 96.37 96.73 87.56 0.54

2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78

2016 42.28 42.15 42.01 44.80 -0.98

3Q 2016 46.95 47.20 46.46 48.68 -0.65

4Q 2016 47.30 47.03 46.91 49.12 -0.58

1Q 2017 52.90 52.44 52.19 54.65 -0.80

2Q 2017 49.45 49.76 50.08 51.66 -0.44

3Q 2017 45.89 46.22 46.87 48.05 -0.20

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.3% -2.1% 0.9% -1.3%

Sep-16 47.05 47.93 43.57 46.05 -0.70

Oct-16 43.44 43.26 45.39 47.67 -0.62

Nov-16 50.43 50.77 48.64 50.65 -0.49

Dec-16 48.03 47.07 46.71 49.03 -0.63

Jan-17 52.23 52.08 50.63 53.49 -0.99

Feb-17 52.42 51.62 52.75 55.39 -0.87

Mar-17 54.06 53.61 53.18 55.08 -0.55

Apr-17 47.34 48.11 51.12 52.81 -0.50

May-17 50.27 51.04 50.72 52.33 -0.46

Jun-17 50.73 50.14 48.40 49.84 -0.35

Jul-17 43.23 44.06 47.11 48.32 -0.23

Aug-17 46.79 46.77 45.12 46.35 -0.21

Sep-17 47.64 47.84 48.40 49.46 -0.15

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.3% -0.2% 11.1% 7.4%

NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2014 270.6 272.8 271.8 260.8 1.7 285.9 287.7 286.4 290.2 1.4

2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5

2016 138.4 138.7 136.9 133.2 -1.9 133.8 133.8 132.1 141.7 -1.6

3Q 2016 141.1 142.3 145.0 130.1 2.1 139.0 141.1 143.3 153.3 -1.8

4Q 2016 143.8 144.7 142.1 133.9 1.6 153.2 152.0 148.9 158.2 -1.5

1Q 2017 157.3 157.0 155.9 168.2 -8.6 164.6 165.0 164.9 172.9 -1.4

2Q 2017 162.0 162.6 163.0 155.5 -0.5 153.1 153.9 154.7 162.1 -0.6

3Q 2017 178.7 170.2 157.2 137.2 5.1 162.9 159.4 152.8 159.6 -0.5

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 26.6% 19.6% 8.4% 5.4% 17.1% 13.0% 6.6% 4.1%

Sep-16 141.2 144.2 141.6 125.6 7.9 141.0 145.6 141.5 151.4 -1.9

Oct-16 148.7 147.7 139.2 127.5 2.7 152.8 151.0 143.3 152.6 -1.4

Nov-16 145.0 146.9 149.0 141.6 1.5 149.6 153.6 156.6 166.2 -1.6

Dec-16 137.7 139.5 138.2 132.7 0.7 157.1 151.6 146.9 155.7 -1.5

Jan-17 168.2 167.0 156.9 166.2 -1.2 170.4 170.2 166.2 174.2 -1.7

Feb-17 152.6 152.0 157.5 169.9 -2.5 161.2 161.3 164.4 172.4 -1.5

Mar-17 151.2 152.0 153.4 168.5 -22.0 162.1 163.4 164.1 171.9 -1.0

Apr-17 170.0 168.4 162.9 157.3 -1.6 157.4 155.8 153.6 161.1 -0.7

May-17 154.8 156.3 168.1 160.0 -0.1 150.4 151.6 159.0 166.4 -0.7

Jun-17 161.2 163.1 158.1 149.2 0.3 151.5 154.2 151.4 158.8 -0.6

Jul-17 151.5 149.5 148.2 132.1 0.8 147.6 145.2 142.6 150.4 -0.8

Aug-17 170.6 167.6 157.1 137.2 2.4 165.2 163.2 152.6 159.6 -0.5

Sep-17 214.0 193.6 166.3 142.2 12.0 175.8 169.9 163.1 168.9 -0.1

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 51.6% 34.2% 17.4% 13.3% 24.7% 16.7% 15.3% 11.5%


A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 3. As of August 2016, Western

Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.

Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas

2014 97.07 96.61 96.94 99.00 99.78 98.01 86.87 95.21 87.25 93.58 100.77 98.63

2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24

2016 40.89 41.32 41.89 43.69 43.97 42.09 33.96 39.22 38.36 42.31 43.95 41.05

2Q 2016 42.66 43.18 43.47 45.53 46.13 43.86 33.78 40.81 40.34 43.47 45.61 46.24

3Q 2016 43.10 43.30 43.83 45.85 45.96 44.10 36.85 41.49 40.93 44.61 46.47 41.13

4Q 2016 47.83 48.33 48.81 49.48 49.41 48.12 42.53 46.70 45.45 49.79 49.98 45.20

1Q 2017 52.20 53.11 53.61 53.75 53.74 52.34 45.99 51.40 48.52 54.44 54.04 50.06

2Q 2017 48.72 49.89 49.96 49.82 49.80 48.70 44.60 47.94 46.24 51.29 50.24 45.52

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.2% 15.5% 14.9% 9.4% 8.0% 11.1% 32.0% 17.5% 14.6% 18.0% 10.1% -1.6%

Aug-16 43.47 43.58 44.02 45.85 45.79 44.06 36.46 41.88 40.84 44.22 46.35 41.26

Sep-16 42.70 43.67 44.01 46.69 47.10 44.48 37.38 41.22 41.22 44.55 47.77 40.28

Oct-16 48.26 48.94 49.18 49.74 49.58 48.24 42.36 47.04 45.98 49.91 50.83 45.20

Nov-16 43.32 43.98 44.54 45.13 44.97 43.83 39.37 42.14 41.69 45.64 45.20 40.72

Dec-16 51.92 52.08 52.72 53.57 53.67 52.28 45.86 50.93 48.67 53.81 53.91 49.68

Jan-17 52.29 53.71 54.01 54.58 54.62 53.42 46.81 51.48 48.64 54.98 54.98 50.63

Feb-17 53.63 54.41 55.12 55.06 55.10 53.67 47.03 52.85 50.08 56.09 55.24 51.19

Mar-17 50.68 51.21 51.71 51.60 51.50 49.94 44.14 49.87 46.83 52.26 51.91 48.35

Apr-17 51.64 52.31 52.82 52.59 52.57 51.55 46.15 50.81 48.70 53.81 53.02 47.95

May-17 49.30 50.97 50.57 50.45 50.43 49.04 45.16 48.65 46.91 51.85 50.77 45.96

Jun-17 45.21 46.38 46.50 46.42 46.40 45.52 42.49 44.37 43.11 48.21 46.92 42.65

Jul-17 47.12 47.59 47.63 48.51 48.63 47.82 43.41 46.19 45.21 50.75 48.66 43.96

Aug-17 49.63 50.24 50.37 51.66 52.30 51.30 45.38 48.70 47.45 52.92 51.69 45.91

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.2% 15.3% 14.4% 12.7% 14.2% 16.4% 24.5% 16.3% 16.2% 19.7% 11.5% 11.3%

United States Canada Light vs. Heavy

ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS

Okla.

Sw.

Kans.

Sw.

Mich.

So.

Wyo.

Sw.

CDN

Sweet2CDN

Heavy3

2014 94.79 94.13 87.39 88.44 83.44 82.19 88.44 85.77 80.44 83.52 82.59 73.85

2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71

2016 33.46 43.80 35.82 41.08 36.08 34.83 41.08 40.08 33.08 40.50 39.44 28.85

2Q 2016 30.42 45.46 38.30 44.25 39.25 38.00 44.25 43.17 36.25 43.88 42.69 32.65

3Q 2016 30.15 46.40 36.65 42.33 37.33 36.08 42.33 41.33 34.33 42.08 41.64 30.77

4Q 2016 39.14 49.81 41.23 46.08 41.08 39.83 46.08 45.08 38.08 45.83 45.53 34.29

1Q 2017 43.48 53.40 45.50 48.67 43.67 42.42 48.67 47.67 40.67 48.44 48.95 38.22

2Q 2017 44.34 49.43 42.43 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.83 36.50 44.64 45.78 42.43

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 45.8% 8.7% 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 1.7% 7.2% 29.9%

Aug-16 30.62 49.35 38.60 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 43.25 36.00 43.89 41.35 30.34

Sep-16 37.05 49.20 39.05 45.00 40.00 38.75 45.00 43.75 37.00 44.49 42.57 31.41

Oct-16 36.98 48.91 39.75 45.50 40.50 39.25 45.50 44.25 37.50 44.95 46.81 35.89

Nov-16 36.86 46.54 38.60 43.50 38.50 37.25 43.50 42.50 35.50 43.33 41.66 30.54

Dec-16 43.57 53.98 45.35 49.25 44.25 43.00 49.25 48.50 41.25 49.20 48.14 36.46

Jan-17 38.14 53.59 45.45 49.00 44.00 42.75 49.00 48.25 41.00 48.88 49.53 38.81

Feb-17 46.15 54.54 46.70 50.00 45.00 43.75 50.00 48.75 42.00 49.58 50.33 39.53

Mar-17 46.15 52.06 44.35 47.00 42.00 40.75 47.00 46.00 39.00 46.85 47.03 36.34

Apr-17 45.79 49.79 43.15 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 46.61 40.81

May-17 43.22 51.01 43.80 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 46.05 48.43 51.35

Jun-17 44.02 47.50 40.35 41.50 36.50 35.25 41.50 41.50 33.50 42.29 42.20 34.91

Jul-17 42.79 51.92 44.00 46.25 41.25 44.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 45.96 44.10 36.96

Aug-17 41.46 52.25 43.25 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 42.75 36.00 43.54 45.01 37.95

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 35.4% 5.9% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.2% 0.0% -0.8% 8.9% 25.1%


A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny

Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Notes: 1. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 2. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour

Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff.

CDN

Sweet1CDN

Heavy2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.

2014 97.07 93.57 3.50 93.58 86.53 7.04 82.59 73.85 8.74 82.19 83.44 -1.25

2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.77 6.37 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25

2016 40.89 38.36 2.52 42.31 36.98 5.34 39.44 28.85 10.59 34.83 36.08 -1.25

2Q 2016 42.66 40.10 2.56 43.47 38.13 5.34 42.69 32.65 10.04 38.00 39.25 -1.25

3Q 2016 43.10 40.58 2.52 44.61 39.64 4.97 41.64 30.77 10.88 36.08 37.33 -1.25

4Q 2016 47.83 45.64 2.19 49.79 43.36 6.43 45.53 34.29 11.24 39.83 41.08 -1.25

1Q 2017 52.20 50.46 1.74 54.44 45.42 9.03 48.95 38.22 10.74 42.42 43.67 -1.25

2Q 2017 48.72 47.18 1.54 51.29 44.37 6.92 45.78 42.43 3.35 38.25 39.50 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.2% 17.7% 18.0% 16.4% 7.2% 29.9% 0.7% 0.6%

Aug-16 43.47 41.00 2.47 44.22 39.39 4.83 41.35 30.34 11.01 37.75 39.00 -1.25

Sep-16 42.70 40.34 2.36 44.55 39.05 5.50 42.57 31.41 11.16 38.75 40.00 -1.25

Oct-16 48.26 46.26 2.00 49.91 43.76 6.15 46.81 35.89 10.92 39.25 40.50 -1.25

Nov-16 43.32 40.96 2.36 45.64 40.32 5.32 41.66 30.54 11.13 37.25 38.50 -1.25

Dec-16 51.92 49.70 2.22 53.81 45.99 7.82 48.14 36.46 11.68 43.00 44.25 -1.25

Jan-17 52.29 50.56 1.73 54.98 46.58 8.40 49.53 38.81 10.73 42.75 44.00 -1.25

Feb-17 53.63 51.97 1.66 56.09 46.55 9.54 50.33 39.53 10.79 43.75 45.00 -1.25

Mar-17 50.68 48.86 1.82 52.26 43.12 9.14 47.03 36.34 10.69 40.75 42.00 -1.25

Apr-17 51.64 49.97 1.67 53.81 44.90 8.91 46.61 40.81 5.80 39.50 40.75 -1.25

May-17 49.30 47.92 1.38 51.85 45.60 6.25 48.43 51.35 -2.92 40.00 41.25 -1.25

Jun-17 45.21 43.64 1.57 48.21 42.60 5.61 42.20 34.91 7.29 35.25 36.50 -1.25

Jul-17 47.12 45.76 1.36 50.75 44.70 6.05 44.10 36.96 7.14 44.00 41.25 2.75

Aug-17 49.63 48.55 1.08 52.92 46.94 5.98 45.01 37.95 7.06 37.75 39.00 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.2% 18.4% 19.7% 19.2% 8.9% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Spot Prices Differentials

WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

2014 93.28 98.94 96.52 97.97 96.19 -2.41 0.01 -1.44 0.34

2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16

2016 43.33 43.72 41.46 42.11 40.68 -1.44 0.82 0.17 1.59

2Q 2016 45.52 45.54 43.23 43.86 42.30 1.41 3.72 3.09 4.64

3Q 2016 44.88 45.80 43.28 44.05 42.89 1.50 4.02 3.25 4.41

4Q 2016 49.23 49.35 48.27 47.99 47.59 3.55 4.63 4.91 5.32

1Q 2017 51.70 53.66 53.01 52.25 52.03 -4.21 -3.56 -2.80 -2.58

2Q 2017 48.11 49.58 49.71 48.46 48.59 -3.69 -3.82 -2.57 -2.71

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.7% 8.9% 15.0% 10.5% 14.9%

Aug-16 44.75 45.68 43.67 43.90 43.10 1.37 3.38 3.15 3.95

Sep-16 45.20 46.69 43.58 44.48 42.89 -3.25 -0.14 -1.04 0.55

Oct-16 49.89 49.74 48.94 48.24 47.87 0.69 1.49 2.19 2.56

Nov-16 45.62 45.13 43.98 43.83 43.22 2.90 4.05 4.20 4.81

Dec-16 52.02 53.57 52.08 52.29 51.67 -1.34 0.15 -0.06 0.56

Jan-17 52.51 54.58 53.68 53.42 52.40 -2.16 -1.26 -1.00 0.02

Feb-17 53.40 55.06 54.41 53.67 53.37 -1.00 -0.35 0.39 0.69

Mar-17 49.58 51.60 51.21 49.94 50.32 -4.26 -3.87 -2.60 -2.98

Apr-17 51.06 52.46 52.31 51.41 51.37 -2.19 -2.04 -1.14 -1.10

May-17 48.50 50.42 50.58 49.01 49.20 0.31 0.15 1.72 1.53

Jun-17 45.17 46.42 46.48 45.52 45.21 -3.19 -3.25 -2.29 -1.98

Jul-17 46.65 48.51 47.59 47.82 46.93 -1.72 -0.80 -1.03 -0.14

Aug-17 48.03 51.64 50.24 51.29 49.60 -4.00 -2.60 -3.65 -1.96

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.3% 13.0% 15.0% 16.8% 15.1%


A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status

Report.

Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes

Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2014 106.68 82.82 113.30 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22

2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55

2016 56.84 32.12 52.43 54.02 52.37 30.62 56.20 52.24 35.63

2Q 2016 61.70 31.03 53.43 58.37 54.51 29.31 57.58 53.76 33.89

3Q 2016 59.62 34.88 54.44 54.76 54.10 34.39 54.72 54.11 37.88

4Q 2016 60.99 41.20 59.92 58.98 60.01 39.77 62.83 60.27 45.42

1Q 2017 65.10 44.58 63.18 63.48 63.31 43.24 67.71 64.85 49.04

2Q 2017 65.69 42.50 58.71 62.74 59.21 41.85 63.82 61.02 46.69

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.5% 37.0% 9.9% 7.5% 8.6% 42.8% 10.8% 13.5% 37.8%

Aug-16 61.25 34.40 54.80 54.45 53.88 33.88 54.18 53.47 37.21

Sep-16 58.73 36.36 55.58 57.00 55.21 36.04 58.00 54.62 39.35

Oct-16 62.21 40.08 60.68 60.51 60.91 39.26 62.99 61.23 43.76

Nov-16 54.80 38.15 56.11 55.00 55.98 36.80 58.99 56.84 42.36

Dec-16 65.66 45.22 62.80 61.75 63.51 43.58 66.68 62.91 50.27

Jan-17 66.52 45.76 63.70 64.20 63.94 44.35 69.47 65.15 51.28

Feb-17 65.04 45.94 65.58 66.04 65.20 44.45 69.90 66.76 49.87

Mar-17 63.91 42.42 60.75 60.60 61.09 41.16 64.28 62.94 46.38

Apr-17 69.66 43.68 63.27 65.91 62.88 42.99 67.66 64.68 48.11

May-17 66.12 42.98 59.04 62.86 59.80 41.88 64.40 61.19 46.76

Jun-17 61.83 41.01 54.46 60.04 55.65 40.90 59.78 57.54 45.33

Jul-17 65.79 43.89 60.07 60.78 59.09 43.52 61.76 61.05 46.32

Aug-17 70.77 44.85 66.44 65.64 62.25 45.40 67.51 63.51 47.84

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.5% 30.4% 21.2% 20.6% 15.5% 34.0% 24.6% 18.8% 28.6%

NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles

Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.

2014 261.23 269.64 280.48 248.81 269.65 271.08 266.81 278.58

2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03

2016 139.08 128.35 135.14 133.18 124.92 131.75 145.38 138.67

2Q 2016 150.67 132.00 138.70 141.93 127.60 134.57 157.43 143.37

3Q 2016 139.03 132.27 139.57 139.33 129.53 137.40 145.07 141.83

4Q 2016 153.93 147.70 155.47 145.73 143.47 152.23 151.77 160.83

1Q 2017 155.30 153.50 159.17 155.30 150.20 156.77 169.60 163.47

2Q 2017 153.20 143.63 150.57 152.40 140.57 147.53 171.40 154.87

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.7% 8.8% 8.6% 7.4% 10.2% 9.6% 8.9% 8.0%

Aug-16 137.90 132.50 139.90 142.90 129.50 137.90 138.80 140.00

Sep-16 143.80 135.10 141.80 139.30 131.90 140.00 155.20 145.50

Oct-16 152.20 148.80 155.90 148.90 145.70 154.40 161.90 163.00

Nov-16 146.20 139.00 146.30 131.70 135.60 142.70 143.40 153.90

Dec-16 163.40 155.30 164.20 156.60 149.10 159.60 150.00 165.60

Jan-17 162.00 155.10 162.30 159.30 151.40 159.30 161.20 167.10

Feb-17 154.70 156.20 162.40 154.30 154.70 160.80 175.60 167.00

Mar-17 149.20 149.20 152.80 152.30 144.50 150.20 172.00 156.30

Apr-17 161.10 152.30 158.60 162.10 151.00 155.80 177.70 163.90

May-17 154.00 145.40 151.40 151.90 141.20 148.20 174.60 154.70

Jun-17 144.50 133.20 141.70 143.20 129.50 138.60 161.90 146.00

Jul-17 156.20 142.30 152.10 151.80 141.70 148.60 166.90 157.00

Aug-17 168.80 151.90 163.10 163.80 156.10 160.10 180.70 169.70

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 22.4% 14.6% 16.6% 14.6% 20.5% 16.1% 30.2% 21.2%


B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on

historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-

es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes

crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.

Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World

Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3

Demand

2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 19.8 12.0 4.6 36.4 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.7

2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.5 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.7

2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.1 12.4 4.6 38.1 5.5 3.2 8.9 92.9

2015 24.6 13.8 8.1 46.4 22.5 12.2 4.5 39.2 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.8

2016 24.7 14.0 8.1 46.9 23.2 11.7 4.8 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.1

2Q 2015 24.4 13.6 7.6 45.6 22.7 12.5 4.6 39.8 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.4

3Q 2015 25.0 14.2 7.7 46.9 22.4 12.8 4.8 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.9

4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.5 23.0 12.3 4.7 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.7

1Q 2016 24.5 13.6 8.6 46.7 23.2 11.3 4.6 39.1 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.3

2Q 2016 24.4 13.9 7.7 46.0 23.5 11.9 4.6 40.0 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.6

3Q 2016 25.0 14.4 7.8 47.3 22.7 12.1 4.9 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.7

4Q 2016 24.8 14.2 8.4 47.4 23.3 11.5 4.9 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8

1Q 2017 24.5 13.9 8.6 46.9 24.0 10.9 4.6 39.6 6.2 3.7 10.0 96.5

2Q 2017 25.0 14.2 7.8 47.0 24.5 11.5 4.8 40.9 6.2 3.7 10.0 97.9

Supply

2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 6.9 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.9

2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 30.2 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.2

2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 7.7 7.6 13.9 30.2 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.7

2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.9 7.8 14.0 30.7 28.2 8.7 38.1 96.6

2016 19.5 3.5 0.4 24.6 7.6 7.6 14.2 30.5 30.2 7.2 39.6 97.0

2Q 2015 19.7 3.5 0.4 24.8 8.0 8.1 14.0 31.1 28.3 8.9 38.0 96.4

3Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.5 25.2 7.8 8.0 13.9 30.7 28.7 8.6 39.1 97.2

4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.9 7.9 14.1 30.9 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4

1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.3 7.9 7.4 14.3 30.6 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.7

2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.1 7.7 7.4 14.1 30.3 29.8 8.0 39.9 96.1

3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.4 7.5 7.7 14.0 30.2 30.6 7.7 39.5 97.0

4Q 2016 19.7 3.6 0.4 25.0 7.4 7.7 14.5 30.6 30.8 7.3 40.0 98.3

1Q 2017 20.0 3.7 0.4 25.2 7.5 7.6 14.4 30.6 29.6 7.2 38.9 96.7

2Q 2017 19.8 3.5 0.4 24.9 7.5 7.5 14.3 30.4 29.7 7.3 39.2 97.0

Balance

2012 -7.8 -10.3 -7.9 -24.9 -12.9 -4.0 9.2 -6.8 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2

2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.0 -4.3 9.3 -7.0 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5

2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -13.4 -4.8 9.3 -7.9 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.8

2015 -4.6 -10.3 -7.6 -21.3 -14.6 -4.4 9.5 -8.5 22.4 5.3 28.9 1.8

2016 -5.2 -10.5 -7.7 -22.3 -15.6 -4.1 9.4 -9.2 24.2 3.7 30.0 0.9

2Q 2015 -4.7 -10.1 -7.2 -20.8 -14.7 -4.4 9.4 -8.6 22.5 5.5 28.8 2.0

3Q 2015 -4.9 -10.8 -7.2 -21.7 -14.6 -4.8 9.1 -9.3 22.9 5.2 29.9 1.3

4Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -7.7 -21.1 -15.1 -4.4 9.4 -9.1 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.7

1Q 2016 -4.6 -10.0 -8.2 -21.4 -15.3 -3.9 9.7 -8.4 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.4

2Q 2016 -5.4 -10.5 -7.3 -21.9 -15.8 -4.5 9.5 -9.7 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.5

3Q 2016 -5.7 -11.1 -7.4 -22.9 -15.2 -4.4 9.1 -9.4 24.6 4.2 29.9 0.3

4Q 2016 -5.1 -10.6 -8.0 -22.4 -15.9 -3.8 9.6 -9.0 24.8 3.7 30.4 1.5

1Q 2017 -4.5 -10.2 -8.2 -21.7 -16.5 -3.3 9.8 -9.0 23.4 3.5 28.9 0.2

2Q 2017 -5.2 -10.7 -7.4 -22.1 -17.0 -4.0 9.5 -10.5 23.5 3.7 29.2 -0.9


B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve

estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All

stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.


Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2014 19.08 3.32 0.51 22.91 6.88 8.16 13.87 28.90 26.77 8.96 37.48 89.29

2015 19.98 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.92 8.07 14.03 30.02 28.16 8.68 38.14 92.08

2016 19.47 3.52 0.43 23.42 7.62 7.56 14.21 29.39 30.15 7.23 39.61 92.42

2Q 2016 18.96 3.44 0.41 22.82 6.77 7.76 14.01 28.54 29.80 8.03 39.92 91.28

3Q 2016 19.32 3.34 0.45 23.11 7.50 7.91 13.99 29.39 30.64 7.72 39.54 92.04

4Q 2016 19.65 3.64 0.41 23.70 7.48 7.95 14.52 29.96 30.85 7.26 40.04 93.70

1Q 2017 19.96 3.66 0.39 24.00 7.50 7.57 14.43 29.51 29.61 7.16 38.93 92.44

2Q 2017 19.81 3.49 0.40 23.70 7.42 7.58 14.33 29.33 29.73 7.33 39.22 92.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.5% 1.5% -2.4% 3.9% 9.6% -2.3% 2.3% 2.8% -0.2% -8.7% -1.8% 1.1%

Aug-16 19.35 3.35 0.45 23.15 6.57 7.98 13.60 28.14 30.56 7.74 40.43 91.72

Sep-16 19.21 2.98 0.43 22.62 6.61 8.09 14.17 28.86 30.64 7.85 40.54 92.02

Oct-16 19.53 3.49 0.44 23.46 7.37 7.96 14.51 29.84 30.91 8.10 39.94 93.24

Nov-16 19.85 3.77 0.41 24.04 7.50 7.94 14.47 29.91 30.82 7.37 40.22 94.17

Dec-16 19.49 3.65 0.43 23.57 7.56 8.00 14.53 30.10 30.67 7.20 39.85 93.52

Jan-17 19.53 3.62 0.39 23.55 7.50 7.91 14.44 29.84 29.46 7.21 38.63 92.02

Feb-17 20.02 3.66 0.38 24.06 7.50 7.92 14.46 29.89 29.61 7.20 38.80 92.75

Mar-17 19.96 3.73 0.39 24.08 7.49 7.67 14.39 29.55 29.56 6.93 38.47 92.10

Apr-17 19.55 3.62 0.39 23.56 7.39 7.46 14.36 29.20 29.69 6.98 38.84 91.60

May-17 19.68 3.47 0.39 23.54 7.37 7.63 14.28 29.28 29.68 7.35 39.14 91.96

Jun-17 19.95 3.37 0.41 23.73 7.52 7.65 14.33 29.50 29.81 7.56 39.51 92.74

Jul-17 20.20 3.50 0.41 24.11 7.40 7.65 14.34 29.39 29.81 7.89 39.87 93.37

Aug-17 19.92 3.30 0.41 23.63 7.38 7.76 14.14 29.28 29.77 7.70 39.66 92.57

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.9% -1.5% -8.9% 2.1% 12.3% -2.8% 4.0% 4.1% -2.6% -0.5% -1.9% 0.9%

R/P Ratio2 31.3 10.9 27.4 28.4 15.2 21.7 28.6 23.4 73.9 143.0 83.2 50.5

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD

Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2

2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712

2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015

2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985

2Q 2016 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,005 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052

3Q 2016 621 801 1,617 353 568 992 202 187 450 1,176 1,556 3,060

4Q 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985

1Q 2017 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030

2Q 2017 658 753 1,596 365 560 996 190 170 424 1,213 1,482 3,016

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.3% -2.7% -0.8% 2.3% -3.7% -0.9% -6.2% -3.0% -3.1% 0.4% -3.1% -1.2%

Jul-16 646 795 1,636 363 593 1,024 196 184 442 1,205 1,572 3,101

Aug-16 639 801 1,635 355 585 1,009 188 193 442 1,181 1,578 3,086

Sep-16 621 801 1,617 353 568 992 202 187 450 1,176 1,556 3,060

Oct-16 647 782 1,624 347 559 977 202 181 447 1,196 1,522 3,048

Nov-16 646 789 1,623 341 562 975 195 172 430 1,182 1,522 3,028

Dec-16 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985

Jan-17 665 781 1,623 355 597 1,022 193 166 421 1,212 1,544 3,067

Feb-17 683 764 1,619 360 592 1,025 185 165 412 1,228 1,521 3,056

Mar-17 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030

Apr-17 676 752 1,608 353 599 1,026 193 165 420 1,223 1,516 3,054

May-17 671 762 1,619 359 572 1,006 198 170 432 1,228 1,504 3,057

Jun-17 658 753 1,596 365 560 996 190 170 424 1,213 1,482 3,016

Jul-17 641 745 1,571 371 562 1,008 197 177 438 1,209 1,483 3,016

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.8% -6.3% -4.0% 2.4% -5.2% -1.6% 0.5% -4.0% -0.9% 0.4% -5.6% -2.7%


B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on

spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12

Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Gabon Total1 Iraq2

2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 1.66 1.90 0.46 1.12 2.46 0.55 0.22 27.65 3.33

2015 10.16 2.85 2.93 2.79 0.65 1.76 1.77 0.40 1.11 2.46 0.54 0.23 27.65 4.00

2016 10.42 3.55 3.05 2.88 0.65 1.71 1.47 0.39 1.11 2.24 0.55 0.23 28.38 4.42

2Q 2016 10.33 3.59 2.98 2.82 0.66 1.74 1.50 0.32 1.09 2.23 0.55 0.22 28.76 4.31

3Q 2016 10.61 3.67 3.12 2.92 0.64 1.72 1.25 0.31 1.13 2.19 0.55 0.23 28.34 4.43

4Q 2016 10.55 3.81 3.13 2.86 0.64 1.61 1.46 0.57 1.12 2.12 0.54 0.22 28.63 4.64

1Q 2017 9.88 3.78 2.96 2.71 0.60 1.64 1.39 0.66 1.05 2.08 0.52 0.20 27.61 4.46

2Q 2017 9.97 3.77 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.64 1.49 0.71 1.06 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.81 4.50

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.5% 5.0% -1.7% -3.9% -6.1% -5.7% -0.7% 121.9% -2.8% -8.1% -3.6% -9.1% -3.3% 4.4%

Aug-16 10.60 3.67 3.09 2.91 0.65 1.76 1.37 0.28 1.12 2.14 0.55 0.21 29.09 4.40

Sep-16 10.61 3.68 3.10 2.90 0.62 1.69 1.39 0.36 1.12 2.13 0.56 0.21 29.11 4.49

Oct-16 10.56 3.82 3.12 2.93 0.63 1.51 1.43 0.51 1.13 2.15 0.54 0.22 28.55 4.59

Nov-16 10.64 3.77 3.13 2.83 0.65 1.69 1.53 0.58 1.12 2.12 0.55 0.23 28.84 4.61

Dec-16 10.45 3.77 3.14 2.81 0.63 1.64 1.39 0.62 1.12 2.10 0.54 0.21 28.42 4.66

Jan-17 9.80 3.75 2.99 2.71 0.61 1.63 1.43 0.69 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.44 4.46

Feb-17 9.98 3.81 2.93 2.71 0.59 1.65 1.45 0.67 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.62 4.45

Mar-17 9.93 3.79 2.91 2.70 0.61 1.64 1.30 0.61 1.05 2.03 0.52 0.20 27.29 4.43

Apr-17 9.96 3.75 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.38 0.55 1.06 2.02 0.53 0.20 27.49 4.46

May-17 9.92 3.78 2.93 2.72 0.63 1.61 1.53 0.74 1.06 2.00 0.53 0.20 27.78 4.48

Jun-17 10.05 3.79 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.57 0.84 1.06 2.04 0.53 0.20 28.11 4.50

Jul-17 10.03 3.81 2.94 2.70 0.61 1.67 1.64 1.01 1.07 2.03 0.54 0.22 28.39 4.49

Aug-17 10.00 3.82 2.91 2.70 0.61 1.69 1.66 0.87 1.06 2.02 0.54 0.19 28.19 4.48

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.7% 4.1% -5.8% -7.2% -6.2% -4.0% 21.2% 210.7% -5.4% -5.6% -1.8% -9.5% -3.1% 1.8%

Persian Gulf

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD

Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.

2014 18.9 88.3 1.93 11.4 79.6 3.35 6.5 86.9 -1.98 36.8 84.1

2015 19.1 87.6 5.65 12.1 84.6 7.28 6.7 90.7 0.62 37.9 86.0

2016 18.9 85.6 4.72 11.9 85.2 4.28 6.9 92.5 0.18 37.7 85.5

2Q 2016 18.9 85.6 4.70 11.4 81.3 4.42 6.7 90.9 -1.5 37.1 84.0

3Q 2016 19.2 86.8 5.33 12.3 87.6 3.55 6.7 90.5 0.0 38.2 86.6

4Q 2016 18.6 84.0 5.13 12.3 88.0 5.14 6.9 92.8 1.1 37.8 85.7

1Q 2017 18.8 85.0 5.38 12.0 85.6 4.87 7.2 97.4 1.0 38.0 86.2

2Q 2017 20.0 90.3 6.09 12.0 85.6 6.17 6.6 89.2 1.16 38.6 87.5

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.5% 29.6% 5.3% 39.4% -1.9% -175.3% 4.1%

Jul-16 19.4 87.8 4.58 12.3 87.9 3.02 6.8 91.4 0.1 38.5 87.3

Aug-16 19.4 87.6 6.00 12.5 88.8 3.43 6.8 91.8 -1.1 38.6 87.6

Sep-16 18.8 85.2 5.40 12.1 86.1 4.19 6.6 88.5 1.0 37.5 84.9

Oct-16 17.8 80.6 4.98 12.1 86.3 5.76 6.4 86.0 0.1 36.3 82.3

Nov-16 18.8 84.9 4.51 12.4 88.4 5.65 6.9 93.4 2.4 38.1 86.3

Dec-16 19.1 86.5 5.91 12.5 89.3 4.02 7.4 99.0 0.8 39.0 88.4

Jan-17 19.0 85.8 6.28 12.3 87.7 4.85 7.4 100.0 1.4 38.7 87.7

Feb-17 18.4 83.3 4.96 11.8 84.0 5.44 7.4 99.6 1.1 37.6 85.2

Mar-17 19.0 85.8 4.90 11.9 85.1 4.32 6.9 92.7 0.7 37.8 85.6

Apr-17 19.8 89.5 6.10 12.1 86.6 6.29 6.8 92.2 1.0 38.8 87.9

May-17 20.1 90.9 6.00 11.8 84.4 5.64 6.7 89.9 0.5 38.6 87.5

Jun-17 20.0 90.4 6.17 12.0 85.9 6.57 6.4 85.6 2.1 38.4 87.0

Jul-17 19.9 89.8 7.98 12.5 89.2 6.80 6.9 93.2 2.6 39.3 89.1

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.3% 74.2% 1.5% 125% 2.1% 3125.0% 2.0%


C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-

es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-

conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

United States1 East Mid-West

Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45 -5.14 3.35 4.91 -1.56

2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38

2016 14.61 19.63 4.87 0.13 0.47 5.42 -4.94 3.63 5.13 -1.50

2Q 2016 14.65 19.43 4.69 0.27 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.67 5.09 -1.42

3Q 2016 14.45 19.90 5.15 0.00 0.50 5.35 -4.86 3.58 5.23 -1.65

4Q 2016 14.62 19.75 4.69 -0.18 0.50 5.41 -4.91 3.59 5.17 -1.59

1Q 2017 14.78 19.49 4.26 0.02 0.51 5.55 -5.03 3.62 5.03 -1.41

2Q 2017 15.12 20.01 4.25 -0.21 0.54 5.57 -5.03 3.70 5.06 -1.36

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.2% 3.0% -9.3% 19.0% 3.6% 0.9% -0.6%

Jun-16 14.60 19.83 4.87 -0.06 0.45 5.47 -5.02 3.70 5.27 -1.57

Jul-16 14.62 19.71 5.30 0.50 0.50 5.25 -4.75 3.65 5.16 -1.51

Aug-16 14.47 20.13 5.20 0.01 0.51 5.55 -5.04 3.58 5.30 -1.72

Sep-16 14.28 19.86 4.94 -0.51 0.48 5.26 -4.78 3.51 5.24 -1.72

Oct-16 14.57 19.62 4.78 0.09 0.49 5.33 -4.84 3.59 5.26 -1.67

Nov-16 14.80 19.66 4.92 0.11 0.50 5.39 -4.89 3.66 5.02 -1.36

Dec-16 14.48 19.98 4.35 -0.74 0.51 5.52 -5.01 3.52 5.24 -1.72

Jan-17 14.49 19.23 5.01 0.71 0.51 5.33 -4.82 3.52 4.97 -1.45

Feb-17 14.83 19.19 3.61 -0.12 0.51 5.43 -4.92 3.66 5.00 -1.34

Mar-17 15.02 20.03 4.17 -0.54 0.52 5.88 -5.36 3.68 5.12 -1.44

Apr-17 14.98 19.53 4.18 0.03 0.53 5.43 -4.91 3.66 4.87 -1.21

May-17 15.19 20.02 4.49 0.17 0.55 5.49 -4.94 3.71 5.11 -1.40

Jun-17 15.19 20.49 4.09 -0.82 0.56 5.79 -5.23 3.74 5.20 -1.46

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.0% 3.3% -16.0% 24.0% 5.9% 1.1% -1.4%

% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.7% 28.2% 24.6% 25.4%

South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products

Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81 -1.43

2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59

2016 8.14 5.39 2.75 1.07 0.71 0.35 1.30 2.99 -1.68

2Q 2016 8.16 5.25 2.91 1.08 0.69 0.39 1.29 3.03 -1.74

3Q 2016 8.06 5.41 2.65 1.04 0.75 0.29 1.27 3.15 -1.88

4Q 2016 8.16 5.53 2.63 1.06 0.71 0.35 1.31 2.93 -1.62

1Q 2017 8.30 5.30 3.01 1.04 0.69 0.35 1.30 2.92 -1.62

2Q 2017 8.49 5.53 2.96 1.10 0.72 0.38 1.28 3.14 -1.86

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.0% 5.3% 2.1% 4.2% -0.6% 3.6%

Jun-16 8.11 5.26 2.85 1.07 0.73 0.34 1.26 3.11 -1.85

Jul-16 8.14 5.43 2.71 1.05 0.73 0.33 1.27 3.15 -1.88

Aug-16 8.08 5.28 2.80 1.03 0.78 0.25 1.28 3.23 -1.95

Sep-16 7.97 5.54 2.44 1.04 0.76 0.28 1.27 3.08 -1.81

Oct-16 8.11 5.33 2.78 1.08 0.74 0.34 1.30 2.96 -1.66

Nov-16 8.25 5.67 2.59 1.08 0.71 0.37 1.31 2.86 -1.55

Dec-16 8.12 5.59 2.53 1.02 0.68 0.34 1.31 2.96 -1.64

Jan-17 8.14 5.41 2.73 1.01 0.67 0.34 1.31 2.86 -1.55

Feb-17 8.33 5.21 3.12 1.05 0.69 0.35 1.29 2.86 -1.57

Mar-17 8.45 5.28 3.17 1.07 0.72 0.35 1.31 3.04 -1.74

Apr-17 8.40 5.42 2.98 1.08 0.69 0.40 1.32 3.12 -1.80

May-17 8.55 5.62 2.93 1.11 0.73 0.38 1.28 3.08 -1.80

Jun-17 8.53 5.56 2.97 1.11 0.74 0.37 1.24 3.21 -1.96

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.2% 5.8% 3.4% 1.4% -1.3% 3.2%

% of Total2 56.2% 27.1% 7.3% 3.6% 8.2% 15.7%


C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.

Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic

Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply

Monthly.

Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum

Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03

2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39

2016 9.33 1.61 3.88 0.36 17.17 2.49 19.63

2Q 2016 9.44 1.61 3.81 0.41 17.24 2.25 19.43

3Q 2016 9.56 1.68 3.79 0.36 17.55 2.40 19.90

4Q 2016 9.22 1.63 4.01 0.35 17.19 2.59 19.75

1Q 2017 8.95 1.60 3.95 0.36 16.68 2.79 19.49

2Q 2017 9.53 1.68 3.91 0.37 17.56 2.34 20.01

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.0% 4.4% 2.7% -9.3% 1.8% 3.8% 3.0%

Jun-16 9.66 1.71 3.86 0.41 17.70 2.19 19.83

Jul-16 9.60 1.72 3.58 0.45 17.48 2.38 19.71

Aug-16 9.60 1.71 3.89 0.34 17.82 2.30 20.13

Sep-16 9.49 1.62 3.91 0.29 17.35 2.52 19.86

Oct-16 9.10 1.61 4.02 0.35 17.04 2.54 19.62

Nov-16 9.24 1.63 3.96 0.38 17.27 2.49 19.66

Dec-16 9.31 1.65 4.06 0.32 17.26 2.74 19.98

Jan-17 8.50 1.59 3.78 0.46 16.20 3.04 19.23

Feb-17 8.99 1.53 3.91 0.27 16.51 2.71 19.19

Mar-17 9.35 1.67 4.15 0.36 17.33 2.62 20.03

Apr-17 9.25 1.62 3.79 0.32 16.96 2.48 19.53

May-17 9.59 1.67 3.97 0.37 17.67 2.40 20.02

Jun-17 9.77 1.76 3.97 0.42 18.05 2.13 20.49

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% -3.0% 3.3%

Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3

2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287

2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325

2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330

2Q 2016 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310

3Q 2016 195 335 1,333 42 142 2,048 1,164 25 45 160 39 319

4Q 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330

1Q 2017 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313

2Q 2017 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.4% -1.7% -3.4% -5.4% -4.0% -3.3% -3.6% -9.6% 1.5% 1.6% -12.6% -1.6%

Jun-16 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310

Jul-16 204 339 1,328 42 149 2,062 1,185 25 42 156 38 316

Aug-16 202 341 1,336 42 143 2,063 1,179 26 43 160 40 320

Sep-16 195 335 1,333 42 142 2,048 1,164 25 45 160 39 319

Oct-16 199 326 1,340 45 140 2,050 1,184 26 45 154 39 311

Nov-16 198 329 1,339 46 142 2,054 1,184 27 45 160 41 319

Dec-16 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330

Jan-17 211 330 1,326 44 140 2,053 1,200 28 42 169 40 333

Feb-17 205 333 1,325 45 142 2,049 1,218 26 44 162 40 327

Mar-17 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313

Apr-17 195 338 1,311 47 143 2,033 1,213 22 45 155 40 318

May-17 196 338 1,311 46 148 2,039 1,201 22 44 154 40 318

Jun-17 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.4% -1.7% -3.4% -5.4% -4.0% -3.3% -3.6% -9.6% 1.5% 1.6% -12.6% -1.6%


C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA

Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude

oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

OPEC

Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf

2014 2.58 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86

2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50

2016 2.93 -0.21 0.73 -0.23 0.41 1.77 4.87 0.72 1.10 0.23 3.23 1.74

2Q 2016 2.65 -0.06 0.69 -0.32 0.40 1.84 4.69 0.71 1.14 0.26 3.25 1.78

3Q 2016 2.80 -0.25 0.85 -0.27 0.39 1.88 5.15 0.77 1.13 0.21 3.39 1.83

4Q 2016 3.09 -0.41 0.61 -0.14 0.50 1.75 4.69 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.74

1Q 2017 3.41 -0.31 0.49 -0.27 0.51 2.00 4.26 0.67 1.28 0.29 3.41 2.00

2Q 2017 3.06 -0.18 0.38 -0.27 0.51 1.93 4.25 0.67 1.09 0.31 3.44 1.94

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.7% 192% -44.8% -13.8% 29.7% 5.2% -9.3% -5.7% -4.3% 18.8% 5.8% 9.1%

Jun-16 2.53 -0.14 0.82 -0.18 0.43 1.76 4.87 0.71 1.10 0.25 3.15 1.71

Jul-16 2.44 -0.11 0.82 -0.18 0.49 1.81 5.30 0.84 1.05 0.30 3.56 1.75

Aug-16 2.95 -0.27 0.85 -0.41 0.35 1.82 5.20 0.70 1.14 0.17 3.22 1.81

Sep-16 3.00 -0.37 0.87 -0.23 0.33 2.00 4.94 0.77 1.21 0.17 3.38 1.94

Oct-16 2.76 -0.34 0.66 -0.05 0.51 1.66 4.78 0.68 1.01 0.23 3.11 1.66

Nov-16 3.17 -0.30 0.52 -0.04 0.53 1.69 4.92 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.67

Dec-16 3.33 -0.59 0.66 -0.34 0.45 1.89 4.36 0.70 1.01 0.24 3.30 1.88

Jan-17 3.52 -0.35 0.39 -0.06 0.55 2.07 5.01 0.66 1.34 0.32 3.58 2.07

Feb-17 3.41 -0.34 0.59 -0.34 0.44 1.99 3.61 0.66 1.34 0.21 3.20 1.99

Mar-17 3.31 -0.23 0.51 -0.40 0.54 1.95 4.17 0.70 1.17 0.34 3.44 1.95

Apr-17 3.07 -0.20 0.61 -0.19 0.48 2.08 4.18 0.76 1.15 0.32 3.50 2.09

May-17 3.21 -0.07 0.34 -0.36 0.48 1.93 4.49 0.69 1.11 0.29 3.45 1.94

Jun-17 2.91 -0.27 0.20 -0.28 0.58 1.80 4.09 0.56 1.02 0.31 3.37 1.80

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.8% 102% -76.0% 56.8% 35.3% 1.8% -16.0% -22.3% -7.7% 25% 6.8% 5.1%

% of Total3 71.0% -6.7% 4.8% -6.7% 14.2% 43.9% 100.0% 13.6% 24.8% 7.7% 82.3% 44.0%

Region of Origin

PAD District U.S. Major Producers

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2

2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35

2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50

2016 0.05 1.71 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.95 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.25 1.59

2Q 2016 0.05 1.72 5.48 0.67 1.04 8.96 0.50 0.54 0.16 3.24 1.58

3Q 2016 0.05 1.67 5.40 0.65 1.00 8.76 0.47 0.53 0.16 3.18 1.57

4Q 2016 0.04 1.62 5.40 0.65 0.99 8.71 0.47 0.53 0.15 3.17 1.58

1Q 2017 0.04 1.63 5.69 0.65 1.05 9.06 0.53 0.52 0.15 3.26 1.76

2Q 2017 0.04 1.62 5.58 0.63 1.00 8.87 0.51 0.48 0.14 3.25 1.68

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.7% -5.9% 1.8% -5.7% -4.5% -1.0% 2.7% -10.9% -13.3% 0.2% 6.0%

Jun-16 0.05 1.70 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.93 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.23 1.59

Jul-16 0.04 1.70 5.46 0.65 1.04 8.89 0.51 0.53 0.16 3.20 1.62

Aug-16 0.04 1.62 5.18 0.62 0.95 8.42 0.45 0.50 0.15 3.07 1.49

Sep-16 0.05 1.71 5.54 0.67 1.00 8.97 0.45 0.55 0.16 3.27 1.61

Oct-16 0.04 1.61 5.45 0.65 0.99 8.74 0.46 0.53 0.15 3.16 1.65

Nov-16 0.04 1.58 5.32 0.65 0.98 8.58 0.45 0.53 0.16 3.16 1.51

Dec-16 0.04 1.67 5.43 0.65 1.01 8.81 0.49 0.52 0.15 3.18 1.59

Jan-17 0.04 1.60 5.35 0.62 1.00 8.62 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.09 1.63

Feb-17 0.05 1.72 6.13 0.69 1.13 9.72 0.57 0.56 0.16 3.49 1.91

Mar-17 0.04 1.57 5.59 0.62 1.02 8.84 0.52 0.50 0.14 3.19 1.75

Apr-17 0.04 1.53 5.33 0.58 0.94 8.43 0.48 0.46 0.13 3.09 1.62

May-17 0.04 1.65 5.73 0.65 1.02 9.10 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.30 1.76

Jun-17 0.05 1.67 5.68 0.67 1.02 9.08 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.35 1.66

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.7% -1.7% 3.5% -0.7% -0.4% 1.7% 7.5% -7.5% -13.0% 3.6% 4.4%

R/P Ratio3 10.9 12.4 9.5 12.5 12.6 10.6 11.0 14.3 10.3 10.7 7.1


C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)

Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.

Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.

Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.

2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4

2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3

2016 1.11 86.6 3.62 91.9 8.68 90.7 0.60 86.5 2.51 85.9 16.51 89.8

2Q 2016 1.16 90.7 3.54 90.2 8.70 91.1 0.58 83.9 2.53 86.4 16.50 89.9

3Q 2016 1.09 85.4 3.70 93.9 8.79 91.5 0.63 90.2 2.67 91.4 16.88 91.5

4Q 2016 1.09 85.1 3.65 92.1 8.72 90.6 0.60 86.6 2.35 80.4 16.41 88.8

1Q 2017 0.95 75.5 3.68 92.0 8.51 87.4 0.60 87.0 2.47 84.4 16.22 87.1

2Q 2017 1.10 91.3 3.84 96.0 9.28 95.2 0.62 89.7 2.58 87.8 17.42 93.8

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.0% 8.4% 6.8% 7.9% 1.9% 5.6%

Jun-16 1.16 90.4 3.69 93.7 8.77 91.3 0.65 93.1 2.55 87.1 16.80 91.1

Jul-16 1.10 85.7 3.73 94.7 8.88 92.4 0.63 90.7 2.67 91.2 16.99 92.2

Aug-16 1.09 85.4 3.75 95.3 8.80 91.7 0.61 87.8 2.72 93.0 16.98 92.1

Sep-16 1.09 85.1 3.63 91.7 8.70 90.5 0.64 92.2 2.63 89.9 16.68 90.4

Oct-16 1.08 84.5 3.58 90.4 8.28 86.1 0.58 83.6 2.26 77.4 15.78 85.4

Nov-16 1.12 87.6 3.67 92.7 8.78 91.3 0.62 89.7 2.35 80.4 16.55 89.6

Dec-16 1.07 83.3 3.71 93.2 9.08 94.3 0.60 86.5 2.44 83.5 16.90 91.3

Jan-17 1.05 83.7 3.72 93.0 8.54 87.7 0.61 88.1 2.53 86.4 16.46 88.4

Feb-17 0.90 71.9 3.62 90.6 8.34 85.6 0.59 85.4 2.37 80.7 15.82 85.0

Mar-17 0.89 70.9 3.70 92.4 8.67 89.0 0.61 87.4 2.52 86.0 16.38 88.0

Apr-17 1.06 84.6 3.80 95.1 9.08 93.2 0.64 92.9 2.68 91.3 17.27 92.7

May-17 1.11 94.1 3.81 95.3 9.44 96.8 0.61 88.4 2.52 85.8 17.49 94.3

Jun-17 1.13 95.5 3.91 97.6 9.33 95.7 0.61 87.7 2.53 86.4 17.51 94.3

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.3% 6.2% 6.4% -6.3% -0.6% 4.2%

% of Total1 6.4% 22.3% 53.3% 3.5% 14.5% 100.0%

NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles

(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)

2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68

2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50

2016 9.28 11.63 10.24 11.51

2Q 2016 10.38 15.87 11.29 13.47

3Q 2016 8.90 13.86 10.81 10.94

4Q 2016 9.71 9.25 10.20 10.59

1Q 2017 7.31 9.38 11.22 12.30

2Q 2017 9.89 13.08 11.68 14.50

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.7% -17.6% 3.5% 7.6%

Aug-16 9.36 15.92 12.25 8.76

Sep-16 9.12 14.26 10.34 15.18

Oct-16 10.76 10.15 11.13 13.22

Nov-16 10.53 7.73 9.01 10.33

Dec-16 7.83 9.88 10.46 8.23

Jan-17 8.03 9.62 11.18 9.84

Feb-17 6.87 7.38 10.72 13.69

Mar-17 7.02 11.15 11.76 13.36

Apr-17 9.84 14.06 12.78 14.20

May-17 9.70 12.82 11.64 15.10

Jun-17 10.13 12.35 10.62 14.21

Jul-17 12.53 15.23 12.81 15.32

Aug-17 11.91 16.74 13.53 15.44

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 27.2% 5.2% 10.4% 76.3%


D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Canada East West

Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2014 4.09 1.56 2.54 0.02 0.27 0.87 -0.60 3.82 0.70 3.12

2015 4.51 1.58 2.96 0.03 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.29 0.62 3.67

2016 4.44 1.55 2.88 0.00 0.25 0.87 -0.62 4.18 0.68 3.51

1Q 2016 4.62 1.51 3.10 -0.01 0.29 0.88 -0.59 4.33 0.64 3.70

2Q 2016 3.86 1.50 2.24 -0.12 0.26 0.86 -0.60 3.60 0.64 2.96

3Q 2016 4.58 1.67 2.93 0.01 0.29 0.92 -0.63 4.29 0.74 3.55

4Q 2016 4.83 1.53 3.41 0.11 0.32 0.84 -0.52 4.51 0.70 3.82

1Q 2017 4.93 1.73 3.22 0.02 0.32 0.93 -0.61 4.61 0.80 3.81

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.8% 14.7% 3.9% 11.7% 6.3% 6.4% 26.3%

Apr-16 4.18 1.65 2.57 0.04 0.28 0.95 -0.67 3.90 0.70 3.20

May-16 3.57 1.30 2.07 -0.20 0.29 0.75 -0.45 3.28 0.55 2.73

Jun-16 3.85 1.56 2.07 -0.21 0.22 0.89 -0.67 3.63 0.67 2.95

Jul-16 4.50 1.74 2.86 0.11 0.23 0.98 -0.75 4.27 0.77 3.50

Aug-16 4.63 1.72 2.90 -0.01 0.32 0.95 -0.63 4.31 0.77 3.54

Sep-16 4.61 1.53 3.02 -0.06 0.32 0.83 -0.52 4.30 0.70 3.60

Oct-16 4.69 1.36 3.52 0.19 0.32 0.76 -0.44 4.38 0.60 3.78

Nov-16 5.00 1.61 3.58 0.19 0.33 0.86 -0.53 4.67 0.75 3.92

Dec-16 4.80 1.63 3.11 -0.06 0.31 0.89 -0.58 4.49 0.73 3.76

Jan-17 5.01 1.76 3.27 0.02 0.34 0.93 -0.59 4.67 0.83 3.84

Feb-17 5.00 1.69 3.42 0.11 0.31 0.91 -0.59 4.69 0.79 3.90

Mar-17 4.79 1.75 2.96 -0.08 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.47 0.79 3.68

Apr-17 4.35 1.67 2.60 -0.08 0.29 0.94 -0.65 4.06 0.73 3.33

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.1% 1.5% 1.1% 4.6% -1.0% 4.0% 5.0%

% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 6.6% 56.1% 93.4% 43.9%

Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3

2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4

2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6

1Q 2016 16.0 16.7 2.0 51.0 76.7 127.7

2Q 2016 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6

3Q 2016 15.7 12.9 2.5 48.1 73.8 121.9

4Q 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6

1Q 2017 15.1 14.1 2.7 48.7 78.0 126.7

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.4% -15.6% 36.3% -4.5% 1.7% -0.8%

Apr-16 14.5 16.3 2.3 48.9 74.8 123.6

May-16 12.8 12.9 2.4 42.2 69.9 112.1

Jun-16 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6

Jul-16 15.4 13.8 2.2 48.0 75.6 123.6

Aug-16 15.4 14.0 2.8 49.0 73.2 122.2

Sep-16 15.7 12.9 2.5 48.1 73.8 121.9

Oct-16 16.0 13.1 2.3 47.2 76.5 123.7

Nov-16 16.7 13.3 2.1 47.2 77.3 124.5

Dec-16 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6

Jan-17 16.7 14.6 2.0 48.8 77.5 126.2

Feb-17 15.8 14.7 2.0 49.4 80.5 129.9

Mar-17 15.1 14.1 2.7 48.7 78.0 126.7

Apr-17 14.8 15.5 2.4 49.9 72.5 122.4

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% -5.3% 4.9% 2.1% -3.0% -1.0%

Finished Products

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1

2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86

2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80

2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81

1Q 2016 0.78 0.50 0.06 1.73

2Q 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.80

3Q 2016 0.85 0.56 0.04 1.91

4Q 2016 0.80 0.54 0.04 1.80

1Q 2017 0.76 0.55 0.05 1.76

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.1% 9.3% -5.6% 1.5%

Apr-16 0.78 0.53 0.05 1.74

May-16 0.81 0.57 0.04 1.81

Jun-16 0.85 0.53 0.03 1.87

Jul-16 0.86 0.51 0.03 1.90

Aug-16 0.85 0.57 0.05 1.94

Sep-16 0.82 0.60 0.05 1.91

Oct-16 0.79 0.53 0.04 1.78

Nov-16 0.80 0.55 0.04 1.80

Dec-16 0.81 0.55 0.04 1.80

Jan-17 0.73 0.52 0.05 1.73

Feb-17 0.76 0.55 0.06 1.72

Mar-17 0.79 0.58 0.05 1.82

Apr-17 0.76 0.47 0.04 1.69

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.2% -11.3% -96.2% -2.6%


D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s

Energy Statistics Handbook.

Non-OPEC OPEC Imports

Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total

2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543

2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567

2016 0 211 10 10 510 70 0 0 0 70 0 580

1Q 2016 0 149 0 7 528 34 0 0 0 34 0 561

2Q 2016 0 258 2 19 521 120 0 0 0 120 0 642

3Q 2016 0 183 11 0 516 98 0 0 0 98 0 614

4Q 2016 0 253 15 13 473 30 0 0 0 30 0 503

1Q 2017 0 181 20 6 620 11 0 0 0 11 0 632

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 21.5% 19480% -11.4% 17.6% -66.4% #DIV/0! 0.0% 0.0% -66.4% 0.0% 12.5%

Apr-16 0 257 6 30 504 133 0 0 0 133 0 637

May-16 0 236 0 0 555 125 0 0 0 125 0 681

Jun-16 0 280 0 25 505 103 0 0 0 103 0 608

Jul-16 0 286 0 0 550 164 0 0 0 164 0 714

Aug-16 0 263 33 0 526 129 0 0 0 129 0 655

Sep-16 0 0 0 0 473 0 0 0 0 0 0 473

Oct-16 0 237 0 39 433 0 0 0 0 0 0 433

Nov-16 0 302 0 0 490 90 0 0 0 90 0 580

Dec-16 0 218 44 0 494 0 0 0 0 0 0 494

Jan-17 0 269 59 19 647 0 0 0 0 0 0 647

Feb-17 0 274 0 0 627 0 0 0 0 0 0 627

Mar-17 0 0 0 0 588 34 0 0 0 34 0 622

Apr-17 0 0 0 0 579 36 0 0 0 36 0 615

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% 14.9% -72.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -72.9% 0.0% -3.4%

% of Total3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 100.0%

Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type

Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs

2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22

2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22

2016 3.08 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.87 0.78 0.93 0.40 1.49 0.26

1Q 2016 3.21 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.02 0.83 1.04 0.40 1.48 0.26

2Q 2016 2.55 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.18 3.30 0.75 0.52 0.39 1.37 0.26

3Q 2016 3.20 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.97 0.76 1.01 0.40 1.53 0.27

4Q 2016 3.36 0.47 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.18 0.79 1.15 0.41 1.57 0.26

1Q 2017 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.25 0.81 1.09 0.41 1.65 0.29

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.4% 3.9% -14.5% -87.9% 16.7% 5.8% -2.4% 4.8% 1.2% 11.6% 10.4%

Apr-16 2.84 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.19 3.61 0.79 0.61 0.39 1.55 0.26

May-16 2.22 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.20 2.99 0.77 0.35 0.39 1.22 0.25

Jun-16 2.58 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.15 3.29 0.70 0.59 0.40 1.34 0.26

Jul-16 3.13 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.16 3.85 0.71 0.90 0.40 1.56 0.27

Aug-16 3.24 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.04 0.78 1.06 0.40 1.53 0.26

Sep-16 3.23 0.46 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.03 0.78 1.06 0.40 1.51 0.27

Oct-16 3.26 0.46 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.06 0.78 1.11 0.40 1.53 0.24

Nov-16 3.49 0.48 0.06 0.01 0.25 4.33 0.80 1.22 0.41 1.61 0.27

Dec-16 3.34 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.16 0.79 1.12 0.41 1.56 0.28

Jan-17 3.46 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.25 4.30 0.81 1.15 0.41 1.64 0.28

Feb-17 3.51 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.33 0.81 1.15 0.41 1.68 0.28

Mar-17 3.29 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.13 0.82 0.96 0.41 1.63 0.29

Apr-17 2.97 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.22 3.77 0.79 0.74 0.40 1.54 0.29

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.6% 7.9% -11.3% -100.0% 10.7% 4.4% 0.7% 20.0% 3.2% -0.6% 12.1%


E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.


N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2014 2,323 122 26 2,472 228 371 598 318 185 503 3,573

2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337

2016 663 82 7 751 180 233 413 299 129 428 1,592

2Q 2016 491 81 6 578 178 229 407 293 134 427 1,412

3Q 2016 626 80 5 711 185 224 410 296 121 417 1,538

4Q 2016 784 78 6 869 181 224 405 299 117 416 1,690

1Q 2017 1,043 81 14 1,138 184 218 401 304 122 426 1,966

2Q 2017 1,030 75 17 1,122 182 222 404 310 129 439 1,965

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 109.9% -8.2% 200.0% 94.1% 2.1% -2.9% -0.7% 5.8% -3.7% 2.8% 39.2%

Aug-16 636 81 6 723 188 220 408 292 124 416 1,547

Sep-16 675 76 4 755 186 223 409 300 120 420 1,584

Oct-16 721 71 4 796 178 227 405 305 114 419 1,620

Nov-16 770 81 5 856 183 224 407 297 118 415 1,678

Dec-16 862 82 10 954 182 222 404 294 120 414 1,772

Jan-17 1,001 81 14 1,096 184 216 400 302 120 422 1,918

Feb-17 1,069 88 14 1,171 182 217 399 302 122 424 1,994

Mar-17 1,060 75 13 1,148 185 220 405 307 125 432 1,985

Apr-17 984 72 19 1,075 186 214 400 308 135 443 1,918

May-17 1,001 78 18 1,097 179 223 402 308 128 436 1,935

Jun-17 1,105 74 14 1,193 180 230 410 314 124 438 2,041

Jul-17 1,172 65 14 1,251 181 239 420 313 126 439 2,110

Aug-17 1,182 74 15 1,271 180 238 418 308 119 427 2,116

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 85.8% -8.6% 150.0% 75.8% -4.3% 8.2% 2.5% 5.5% -4.0% 2.6% 36.8%

% of Total2 55.9% 3.5% 0.7% 60.1% 8.5% 11.2% 19.8% 14.6% 5.6% 20.2% 100.0%

United States Canada North America1

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total

2014 86 453 1,114 156 53 1,861 1,804 57 376 1,905 332 2,238

2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170

2016 39 117 30 260 84 508 485 23 128 536 100 636

2Q 2016 32 104 27 206 72 420 397 24 49 382 87 469

3Q 2016 40 104 27 251 73 480 461 18 122 514 87 601

4Q 2016 46 128 36 302 91 585 563 23 179 649 116 765

1Q 2017 60 146 30 407 113 739 718 21 288 879 148 1,027

2Q 2017 77 171 33 489 140 892 871 21 115 831 176 1,007

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 139.2% 64.1% 23.5% 137.0% 93.1% 112.3% 119.6% -9.2% 135.0% 117.3% 103.1% 114.7%

Aug-16 40 104 27 256 71 481 464 17 129 528 82 610

Sep-16 43 107 28 267 76 509 491 18 141 559 91 650

Oct-16 47 120 35 272 87 543 521 23 157 595 105 700

Nov-16 46 132 36 294 91 580 558 22 172 635 117 752

Dec-16 45 133 36 339 95 634 611 23 209 717 126 843

Jan-17 52 140 30 366 103 683 659 24 302 845 140 985

Feb-17 64 147 29 425 114 744 724 20 309 903 150 1,053

Mar-17 65 151 30 431 121 789 770 19 253 888 154 1,042

Apr-17 76 167 33 482 136 853 833 20 109 796 166 962

May-17 76 167 33 485 137 893 871 22 85 800 178 978

Jun-17 80 178 34 500 146 931 909 22 150 897 184 1,081

Jul-17 81 188 35 504 152 953 931 22 198 962 189 1,151

Aug-17 84 183 29 499 151 947 930 17 217 981 183 1,164

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 110.0% 76.0% 7.4% 94.9% 112.7% 96.8% 100.5% -1.4% 68.2% 85.8% 123.2% 90.8%

% of Total3 7.2% 15.7% 2.5% 42.9% 13.0% 81.4% 79.9% 1.5% 18.6% 84.3% 15.7% 100.0%


Geographical Specifications

1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak

Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,

Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is

comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,

Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD

Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-

OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England

(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,

Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid

-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South

Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West

(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West

(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,

Washington.

3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the

Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova

Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British

Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest

Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).

Additional Notes

1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),

whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.

Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as

NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined

products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo

by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified

quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.

Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the

loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the

responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is

priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the

transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is

similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF

transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is

greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.

Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock

changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

Crude Stream

Producing

Country or

Region

API

Gravity

(@60° F)

Sulfur

Content

(%)

BBLs/Metric

Tonne

Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910

Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773

WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640

GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640

Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640

Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640

Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640

ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640

Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551

Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506

Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462

Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373

Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373

Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373

Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373

WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328

Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284

Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284

Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239

Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194

Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105

Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061

ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061

Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971

Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971

Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838

Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436

Crude Oil Qualities

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

august 2017 ceri crude oil report...eri rude oil report page 4 endnotes 1 2 3 “market power, ope...

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