attribution modelling: real business applications that work

www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing

Attribution Modelling:Real business applications that work

@lynchpin @timbushdata


We help Organisations

Use Data to Make the

Best Decisions

Independent Analytics Consultancy

Consultancy

Analytics

Data Engineering

1


/in/tim-j-bush

Statistical modelling (Attribution models, lead scoring, segmentation, predictive models).

Data Scientist

@timbushdata

Now ThenPhD Physics + research: Mathematical models of bacteria, the environment + of romance.

2

www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 3

1

Myth busting - Common misconceptions about

attribution

AGENDA

2

Case Studies:

1. Aviation (B2C)

2. Professional services (B2B)

What is attribution and why do models fail?

Top tips for successful attribution projects

3

4


Why do you need an attribution model at all?

Moneyball:

What is the truevalue of a baseball

player on your team?


Why do you need an attribution model at all?

Moneyball:

“There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is

really happening”


What is attribution?

5

How do the different players on your team combine to generate wins?

+ +


? %

What is attribution?How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions?

5

? % ? % ? %? %


0 %

What is attribution?How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions?

5

0 % 0 % 0 %100 %

Last

Interaction

Model


What is attribution?What is the actual value of your marketing activities?

0%

100%0% Last Interaction

What is inside

this black box?

7


Or a custom model ?

Custom10% 40%10% 10%30%

10


?Attribution model gives you the true revenue and conversions generated by each channel…..

10% 40%10% 10%30%

11


?

Attribution model gives you the true revenue and conversions generated by each channel…..

but who really cares?

10% 40%10% 10%30%

13


More and more businesses are using attribution models…

Econsultancy/Lynchpin survey of 900 analysts and marketers

however they aren’t sure whether these models are providing accurate or useful insights.

9

https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/


https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/

Attribution models are often ‘black box’ models, that are not based on facts about the business.


Define what your model is for.

Optimising marketing spend.

Planning campaigns.

Attributed revenue is only the first step!

Custom Model

Lead scoring

14


Attribution models

don’t work for B2B.

Attribution Myths Busted

Can’t Measure

Offline Channels

The technology will

Produce a good

enough model

Can’t get internal support for (budget protectiveness).

The TV Myth The B2B Myth The Stakeholder Myth The Technology Myth

15


Case Study 1

Optimise Marketing spend on media and understand which converted to bookings.

16

Aviation Client B2C


Objective – Optimise digital marketing spend to generate flight bookings.

Flight search Flight booking

Marketing interactions

?

Marketing spend

Display

Video

Email

Direct mail

Paid Search

Call Centre

17


•

•

Why do you want an attribution model?

Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit

Model Build

Test Plan

Test the model

19

Lynchpin approach to this project


•

• Spend

• optimization



Model Build

Test Plan

Test the model

19


•

• Spend

• optimization


• Time to conversion was very fast


Model Build

Test Plan

Test the model

19


•

• Spend

• optimization



Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay

based model that optimizes spend

Model Build

Test Plan

Test the model

19


•

• Spend

• optimization





Model Build

• Planned how to move the spends around

Test Plan

Test the model

19


•

• Spend

• optimization





Model Build

• Planned how to move the spends around

Test Plan• Checked the

results, and modified the model

Test the model

19


A Spend Optimisation Model

Combine spend data with revenue generated by each channel as determined by an attribution model.

Model the revenue generated by each channel as a function of spend as having diminishing returns (logistic function).

Use this model to make projections on the impact of future changes in spend.

20


Example – Display Non-Brand

20


Rev

en

ue

ge

ne

rate

d

Spend

Display PPC Brand PPC Generics

Results:

1. Clear overspend in Display. Clear underspend in PPC Brand.

2. Re-allocating spend produced clear improvements in both revenue and other KPIs (Cost per Flight Search).

21


Case Study 2

Lead Scoring. Understand which marketing channel is converting and who are the best leads within organisations.

22

Professional Services Client B2B


B2C Attribution v B2B Attribution

23


B2C Attribution

Which Media Channel

Converts And which

segments respond

to which media.

24


B2C Attribution v B2B Attribution

25


B2B Attribution

Which media converted the company overall?

Who inside the company converted and who influenced them? Internal Discussion

Internal Discussion

26


Methodology – Time Lag Fitting

We looked at correlation between marketing activities and conversions over time.

Correlation gives the number of points for lead scoring.

This method can also be used to incorporate offline channels (TV).

28


Methodology – Time Lag Fitting

28

Time

Sco

re –

Ch

ance

of

con

vert

ing


Conclusion: 3 Top Attribution TipsDefine what the attribution model is for, as early as possible.

– Spend optimization/lead scoring?

– What KPIs do you want to affect or understand?

Adopt a ‘Data Science Approach:

– Bespoke models are better than black box models.

– Base the attribution model on insights about your business that are easy to understand.

– Test rigorously, and improve the model based on the results.

Try to obtain executive sponsorship for digital analytics and attribution:

– The test and learn approach is key to achieving this.

29

1

2

3


Thank You

Any Questions?

Please visit us on POD 8

@lynchpin

attribution modelling: real business applications that work

Data & Analytics