nfi odce performance attribution - ncreif...performance attribution webinar first quarter 2020...
TRANSCRIPT
NFI‐ODCE Performance Attribution Webinar
First Quarter 2020 Review
Panelist Overview
Joe D’AlessandroNCREIF Director of Real Estate Performance Measurement
John EhliManaging Director
DWS
2
Agenda
• Review Q1 results and long term trends• Highlight income, appreciation and sector returns• Overview of rent collection and rent growth• Look at key metrics, leverage and build‐up of returns• Snapshot of investor cash flows
3
4
Levered Returns by Asset Class
0.61% 0.98%
‐23.44%
‐19.60%
5.67% 4.88%
‐15.94%
‐6.98%
8.98% 8.46%
1.91%
6.72%
12.91%11.45%
8.54%10.53%9.86%
8.07%
9.97%
4.78%
‐30%
‐25%
‐20%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
ALL NPI Props NFI‐ODCE Index NAREIT Equity REIT Index S&P 500 Index
Qtr 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year
Leverage
Source: REIT Leverage declines to an all‐time low, by Calvin Schnure 2018 and Corporate Finance Briefing S&P 500 Financial Ratios 2019 by Yardeni Research, Inc., and NCREIF.
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐Estimated by NCREIF‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
5Source: NFI‐ODCE Press Release
Sector performance has diverged
6
CTR is Contribution to return
Source: NFI‐ODCE Performance Attribution Report page 3
Historical View of ODCE Index
MVI = Market Value Indicator, a “same store” price change index excluding capital expenditures.APP = Appreciation return
7Source: NCREIF query tool for MVI and ODCE spreadsheet for Appreciation
All Open‐end funds Survey
8
Equal‐weight April 15th May 15thApartment 91.7% 92.8%Industrial 83.1% 85.1%Office 86.3% 86.3%Retail 44.6% 47.4%Other 84.5% 91.0%Total 78.0% 80.5%
Fund Collection Rates
Source: NCREIF rent collection survey results for All Open‐end Funds operating properties
ODCE Key MetricsRent Growth is strong, Income has declined slightly but appears to be stabilizing, Market Value increases are declining, likely due to lower future NOI growth expectations and leveling or increasing cap rates, Capital Expenditures are consistent.
9
MVI=Market Value Index, Implied Income Return is FCFY (Free Cash Flow Yield) plus CXR (Capital Expense Ratio)
‐35%
‐30%
‐25%
‐20%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Rent Growth
Indicators
All ODCE Properties
Rent Growth MVI Implied Inc Ret
Roll4q Annual Average
Source: NCREIF query tool
Market Value Index is still positive, although trend is declining, while Leverage remains stable
10Source: NCREIF query tool for MVI and ODCE spreadsheet for Leverage
Debt Trends
11Source: NCREIF
12
Build‐up of Returns (Impact Analysis)
Unleveraged Property Return plus Leverage 5.20% 7.07% 8.94% All other Adjustments ‐0.32% ‐0.26% ‐0.49%
Detail on Next Slide
Levered performance lower than unlevered, primarily due to decline in property unlevered performance
Source: NFI‐ODCE Performance Attribution Report page 3
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Quarterly Leverage Impact Trends
10 yr. Treasury Rate on 6/17/20 was 0.74%
Change in 10yr Treasury Rate ‐0.41% ‐0.32% +0.24% ‐1.22% ‐0.71%End of Qtr 10yr Treasury Rate 2.00% 1.68% 1.92% 0.70%
Total Mark to Market ‐0.25% ‐0.13% +0.02% +0.09% ‐0.28%
Source: NFI‐ODCE Performance Attribution Report page 4
14Source: NFI‐ODCE Press Release
Conclusions
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• NPI & NFI‐ODCE have produced impressive returns compared to volatile public markets• Pandemic has had a demonstrative impact on rent collections• Rent collection rates, though improving, remains challenged during “shelter in place”• Rent growth for the aggregate of ODCE properties has been increasing• Give the response of the public markets, the current downturn trend does not feel like another GFC in the making
This concludes today’s Webinar. Thank you for joining us!Upcoming Events:
Virtual conference the week of July 13! Details are under development; check website.
NCREIF Academy presents Online Space Markets Analysis Course The course will be offered in four modules on the following dates, all from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. Central Time:
Monday, August 17th, Wednesday, August 19th, Monday, August 24th, Wednesday, August 26thRegistration will be limited to the first 25 students to enroll.
NCREIF will maintain the usual Index production schedule. Communications regarding this, including NCREIF Committee activities will be sent to membership in the next few days
Visit www.ncreif.org for more information