Athens, 09-05-2014

Dynamic Assessment of the Forest Fires Risk Tool – DFF Risk Tool presentation

Konstantinos Gompakis, Physicist, MSckgobakis@isc.tuc.gr

Professor Georgios S. Stavrakakisgstavr@electronics.tuc.gr

Assistant Professor Denia Kolokotsadkolokotsa@enveng.tuc.gr

FOREST CITIES

LIFE+ 08 ENV/GR/553

Forest Cities• Project Partners (all in Greece):-Regional Union of Municipalities of Attica (PEDA)-University of Athens – Department of Geology and Geoenvironment – Laboratory of Natural Hazards (UoA)-Technical University of Crete – Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering (TUC)-Municipality of Serres - West Macedonia-Municipality of Ilioupoli - Athens area- Attica• Main Deliverables

– Recording the Institutional Framework for the Prevention of Forest Fires in Greece and internationally

– Action Plan for forest fires prevention, case studies Municipality of Serres and Ilioupoli

– Installation guidelines and user manual of the DFF-Risk tool

Forest Fire Risk Index

FHI

(fire hazard index)

a measure of that part of the fire danger contributed by the fuels available for

burning and topological characteristicsof the particular forest area

FDI

(fire danger index)

the chance of fire commencement, as affected by

the nature and incidence of meteorological causative parameters

FFRI

(Forest Fire Risk Index)

FHI (fire hazard index)

• FHI = 0.4 * n + 0.15 * s + 0.05 * a + 0.12 * r + 0.10 * h + 0.13 * v

parameters nature:n : vegetation type (nature)s : terrain slopea : orientation of the terrainr : proximity of the terrain to roads or pathsh: proximity of the terrain to power linesv : proximity of the terrain to settlements and uncontrolled waste disposal sites

vegetation types Coefficient-n Slope of the terrain Coefficient- s Terrain orientation Coefficient- aconifers 5 > 40% 5 135° - 270° 5

broadleaf 4 13-40% 3 46° - 135° 3dense bushes 3 0-13% 1 271° - 315° 3light shrub land 2     0° - 45° 1

crops 1     316° - 360° 1

FHI (fire hazard index)

perimeter zone distance (m)

Coefficient

Proximity to roads and paths: r asphalt 50 5 dirt road 50 4 forest path 50 4

hproximity to power lines 30 5

vProximity to settlements 400 4Proximity to uncontrolled waste disposal sites 100 5

Indicative map of terrain slope

Coefficient s (slope) value

Terrain slope Coefficient- s> 44% 5

13-40% 30-12% 1

Proximity to roads and paths indicative map

Proximity to roads and paths coefficient valueperimeter zone distance (m) Coefficient- r

Proximity to roads and paths: r asphalt 50 5

dirt road 50 4

forest path 50 4

Evaluation of FHI

Classification on five (5) risk categories for FHI, FDI and the combined FFRI :– Category 1 : 0 – 1. (VERY LOW - GREEN COLOR)– Category 2 : 1.01 – 2. (LOW – LIGHT BLUE COLOR)– Category 3 : 2.01 – 3. (MEDIUM- YELLOW COLOR)– Category 4 : 3.01 – 4. (HIGH – ORANGE COLOR)– Category 5 : 4.01 – 5. (VERY HIGH - RED COLOR)

FHI MAP PRODUCTION FOR ILIOUPOLIS FOREST-ATHENS

Evaluation of FDI -Fire danger (meteorological) index

FMC• Τ : ambient temperature oC• Η : relative humidity %

=γ*U10

• Uf : wind speed in the fire front,

• U10 : meteorological wind speed in the forest

area,

• γ : reduction coefficient of wind speed due to vegetation. In forests it takes the value 0,7.

FDI –Fire danger (meteorological) index calculated for Ilioupolis-AthensThe fire risk map bellow on the left is published by the Greek General Secretary

of Civil Protection for the day of 12 September 2011.

FDI given by the Greek General Secretary of Civil ProtectionRisk class Number of incidents

observationsPercentage in each

class (%)1 6072 23,622 9384 36,513 6624 25,774 3624 14,105 0 0,00

FDI calculated using fuzzy c-means classification for the same day

Risk class Class Limits Number of incidents

observations

Percentage in each class (%)

1 0. 0102-0.1037 9028 35.02

2 0.1037-0.2062 8390 32.55

3 0.2062-0.3455 5197 20.16

4 0. 3455-0.5479 2296 8.91

5 0.5479-1.7747 865 3.36

FDI – Fire danger (meteorological) index calculated for Ilioupolis-Athens

DateAmbient

temperatureAmbient wind speed (km/h)

Relative humidity FDI

30/9/11 3:00 πμ 20,7 14,5 30 3

11/8/11 9:59 μμ 25,6 9,7 34 3

26/7/11 1:00 μμ 28,4 11,3 35 3

20/6/11 8:59 μμ 28,6 12,9 29 4

21/6/11 1:59 πμ 25 16,1 32 4

24/6/11 3:00 μμ 28,95 16,9 42,5 4

25/6/11 2:00 μμ 28,2 14,5 35 4

20/6/11 1:00 μμ 35,1 14,5 26 5

26/8/11 3:00 μμ 40,4 16,1 33 5

7/7/11 2:00 μμ 37,1 16,1 24 5

20/7/11 3:59 μμ 38,9 14,5 27 5

FDI –Fire danger (meteorological) index – Meteorological data on-line

http://meteo.gr/Gmap.asp

FDI –Fire danger (meteorological) index – Meteorological data on-line

FDI –Fire danger (meteorological) index – Meteorological data on line Meteorological parameters measurement stations in forests

Forest Fire Risk Index (FFRI)

ΚΑΤΗΓΟΡΙΕΣ ΚΙΝΔΥΝΟΥ

ΠΟΛΥ ΧΑΜΗΛΗ

ΧΑΜΗΛΗ

ΜΕΣΗ

ΥΨΗΛΗ

ΠΟΛΥ ΥΨΗΛΗ

FFRI = 0.6*FDI+0.4*FHI (with rounded integer downward)

Application of the DFF Risk Tool- see for a whole indicative summer day the FFRI change in the

Ilioupolis-Athens forest using real time meteorological measurements:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sxs6iwzfuz6sx9r/speedUpx5.mp4?dl=0

• ArcGis 10 ή ArcGis Engine– Spatial Analyst– 3D Analyst

• ArcObjects SDK for the Java Platform • External Java libraries

– Apache Base64 Encryption– edtftp – Quartz Scheduler

Κεντρική οθόνη εφαρμογής

Send e-mail when predetermined areas fire risk exceeds a predetermined level of risk

Modify shapefile protectionArea for the areas of interest of the responsible of Civil protection and designation of these areas.

-Entries for the e-mail sending-When a new map is created all regions set by the operator are controlled and if the FFRI has surpassed even at in one pixel the risk limit set, an e-mail is sent. Determine the template of the e-mail that the operator will receive.

Send an e-mail when predetermined areas exceed a predetermined level of fire risk: Ilioupolis -Athens forest case

Website: http://forestcities.gr/