assessments of impacts of climate change in national ...css.escwa.org.lb/sdpd/1845/3-1.pdf ·...

Assessments of Impacts of Climate

Change in National Communications

in the Arab Region

Abdul-Majeid Haddad & Mona Radwan

Climate Change Programme, UNEP/ROWA

EGM-4 on Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change on Water Resources, Beirut, 5-6 July 2012

Regional Office for West Asia

Objective & Scope

1. The objective of this review of national communications is to

assess to what extent climate change impacts and

vulnerability assessment of water resources is incorporated in

national communications

2. The study is limited to desk review and does not comments on

methodology, results or conclusions

3. It could inform vulnerability assessment of the Regional

Initiative and could also form the basis for identifying capacity

and methodological gaps

4. UNEP will refine the report as a contribution to the RI


Introduction 1. National Communications are the reporting instrument required by

each Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC)

2. Each Party is obliged to submit these communications on regular

basis (every four years for non-Annex Parties)

3. National communications are not only reports but policy

instruments to help the country understand climate change

situation in the country and formulate appropriate policy changes

and measures in order to address challenges related to mitigation

and adaptation

4. The process in which these communications are prepared is a very

important framework national framework for inter-sectoral

collaboration, mainstreaming, enhancing awareness and above all

capacity building


Introduction 5. Funding is provided primarily by the Global Environment

Facility (GEF) and the country can choose either UNDP or

UNEP as the Implementing Agency

6. The executing agency in most countries is the Ministry of

Environment in collaboration with other ministries and

institutions including Academia, NGOs and Research Centers

7. According to latest UNFCCC information, total number of

submitted national communications from non-Annex I Parties

• Initial national communications: 142 (as at 6 February 2012)

• Second national communications: 74 (as at 5 June 2012)

• Third national communications: 3 (as at 20 March 2012)

• Fourth national communications: 1 (as at 14 December 2009)

All accessible on:

http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/items/653.php





Outline of UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines

Decision 17/CP.8 • Objectives

• National circumstances

• National GHG inventory

• General description of steps

– programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation – programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change

• Other information – transfer of technologies 4/CP.7) – research and systematic observation (5/CP.5) – education, training and public awareness (Article 6) – capacity-building (2/CP.7) – information and networking

•Constraints and gaps


Programmes containing measures to

facilitate adequate adaptation

Provide to the COP information on the general description of steps taken or envisaged towards formulating, implementing, publishing and regularly updating national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change, and any other information they consider to be relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in their communications.

Provide information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, and on adaptation measures being taken to meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse effects. [This means a comprehensive V&A Assessment on key socio-economic sectors – water resources, forestry, agriculture, biodiversity, industry, health, coastal areas, etc.]


Typical structure of the NatCom Team (Iraq)


Country Ratified UNFCCC Ratified Kyoto

Protocol Submitted 1st NC Submitted 2nd NC

1 Algeria June, 1993 Feb., 2005 April, 2001 Nov., 2010

2 Bahrain Dec., 1994 Jan., 2006 April, 2005 Feb., 2012

3 Comoros Oct., 1994 April, 2008 April, 2003

4 Djibouti Aug., 1995 March, 2002 June, 2002

5 Egypt Dec., 1994 Jan., 2005 July, 1999 June, 2010

6 Iraq July, 2009 July, 2009

7 Jordan Nov., 1993 Jan., 2003 March, 1997 Dec., 2009

8 Kuwait Dec., 1994 March, 2005

9 Lebanon Dec., 1994 Nov., 2006 Nov., 1999 March 2011

10 Libya June, 1999 Aug., 2006

11 Mauritania Jan., 1994 July, 2005 July, 2002 Dec., 2008

12 Morocco Dec., 1995 Jan., 2002 Nov., 2001

13 Oman Feb., 1995 Jan., 2005

14 Qatar April, 1996 Jan., 2005 June, 2011

15 Saudi Arabia Dec., 1994 Jan., 2005 Nov., 2005 Oct., 2011

16 Somalia Sept., 2009 July, 2010

17 Sudan Nov., 1993 Nov., 2004 June, 2003

18 Syria Jan., 1996 Jan., 2006 Dec., 2010

19 Tunisia July, 1993 Jan., 2003 Oct., 2001

20 United Arab Emirates Dec., 1995 Jan., 2005 Jan., 2007 April, 2010

21 Yemen Feb, 1996 Sep., 2004 Oct.,2001

Status of Submissions of National Communications from Arab Countries

* Kuwait, Oman and Iraq are in the process of preparing the Initial National Communications


Sample Summary of VA of Water Resources in the Initial National Communications

Country Geographical Scope

Issues of Concern Approach &

Methodology

Egypt National & Transboundary 95% WR from

outside territory,

agriculture

production

No specific

methodology, citing

previous studies

and expert

judgment

Saudi

Arabia

National, all types of Water

Resources

Precipitation, water

recharge, quantity

& quality

Data from 26

synoptic stations

and IPCC data,

modeling using

MAGICC/SENGEN,

2 IPCC Scenarios

UAE National

Ground & surface

water

Expert judgment

and previous

studies


Water Resources in the Initial National Communications

Country Geographical Scope

Issues of Concern Approach & Methodology

Sudan Kordofan Area Soil moisture as an

indicator of water

stress

Five met. Stations

MAGICC/SENGEN, 3 GCMs,

Soil water balance FAO

models (FAOINDEX &

FAOMET)

Syria 2 case studies

(Euphrates River &

Al Zabadani sub-

Basin)

Surface & ground

water, drought

DSS (ACSAD), MODFLOW &

WEAP

Recommendations:

enhancing capacities for

systematic data collection,

analysis, exchange and

coordination


Water Resources in the Second National Communications

Country Geographic

al Scope

Issues of Concern Approach &

Methodology

Recommendati

ons to improve

Assessment

Egypt Nile Basin Sensitivity of the Nile

Basin to Changes in

Rainfall and

Temperature

Previous studies,

3 GCMs used,

Using models

to study

impacts on

local and basin

level (UK-Met)

Jordan Two River

Basins

(Zarqa &

Yarmouk)

Precipitation and

effects on health,

agriculture and

balancing water use

among sectors

WEAP to simulate

surface run off,

scenarios from 3

GCM models

Data collected

1960-2006, stored

in the Ministry of

WR&I,

Data

availability,

quality of data

uncertain, need

to improve

modeling

capacities of

the Min. WRI


Water Resources in the Second National Communications Country Geographical

Scope

Issues of

Concern

Approach &

Methodology

Recommendations to

improve Assessment

Saudi

Arabia

National All types of

water

resources

PRECIS, temp,

precipitation,

evapo-

transpiration

Simplification of natural

process in PRECIS

model, improve impact

studies at the micro-

climate levels, data

availability & modeling

capacities

UAE Supply &

demand

issues with

an without

climate

change

Water Flow

Accounting

Methodology to

simulate supply &

demand

Impacts of climate

change on water limited

compared to demand

side


Water Resources in the Second National Communications Country Geographical

Scope

Issues of

Concern

Approach &

Methodology

Recommendations to

improve Assessment

Lebanon Case study:

important

water area

2,500 km2

(Hadath to

Cedars)

Precipitation,

temperature,

effect on

snow cover

Simulation of data

from 4 stations,

seasonal trends &

projections

modeling using

PRECIS

N/A

Bahrain Dammam

aquifer

Groundwater

from shared

aquifer and

sea water

intrusion

MODFLOW was

used fro ground

water simulation

IPCC SLR

scenarios for

seawater intrusion

N/A


Concluding Rmarks 1. The Scope and methodological approaches in the national communications vary

from country to country depending on purpose, availability of data and

capacities

2. The Convention does not oblige any specific approach or methodology but

encourage assessments to be science-based, nationally specific taking into

consideration regional and global dimension of climate impacts

3. We notice improvement in assessments in terms of analytical depths and

results presentations as countries move from the initial to the second

communications (from expert judgment & indicative scales to impacts models)

4. The studies cited in the national communications could serve a good baseline

for future regional cooperation within the RI. Need to track back knowledge

generated in those processes and bring them to the RI Knowledge Hub

5. UNEP stands ready to contribute to bridging the national communication

process to the RI


Thank You

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