assessing and managing cultural heritage riskpowerpoint presentation author: chris polglase created...
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![Page 1: Assessing and Managing Cultural Heritage RiskPowerPoint Presentation Author: Chris Polglase Created Date: 1/25/2019 10:44:34 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050518/5fa1ddaa09d120453c174453/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Assessing and Managing Cultural Heritage Risk
![Page 2: Assessing and Managing Cultural Heritage RiskPowerPoint Presentation Author: Chris Polglase Created Date: 1/25/2019 10:44:34 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050518/5fa1ddaa09d120453c174453/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Defining Cultural Heritage Risk
• Defining Cultural Heritage Risk Vectors
• Modeling Cultural Heritage Risk –Work in Progress
• Managing Cultural Heritage Risks Using Modeling Tools –
Work in Progress
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What Does Cultural Heritage Risk Look Like?
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What Does Cultural Heritage Risk Look Like?
![Page 5: Assessing and Managing Cultural Heritage RiskPowerPoint Presentation Author: Chris Polglase Created Date: 1/25/2019 10:44:34 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050518/5fa1ddaa09d120453c174453/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Key issue -international lender guidance and
practice lean on Chance Finds Procedures
• Many sites found during construction activities
• The sites that are found can cause very significant
delays and cost impacts
• Developers, regulators, and lenders are put at
risk
• Many heritage sites are damaged during
construction, or receive minimal mitigation
because of the emergency situation
Why Are CH Risks Significant?
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Potential for significant reputational risk
Why Are CH Risks Significant?
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Range of possible variables that should be considered in scaling
risk
• National recognition – not all internationally-defined heritage is protected at the national
level
• Sensitivity – the importance of a resource to one of more stakeholder groups and/or to
regulatory bodies
• Visibility – the ability to see a heritage resource with minimal effort and to know it’s a
resource of concern
• Probability – the likelihood that a type of heritage resource can be found in a portion of
an AOI
• Predictability – the likelihood that a specific type of heritage resource can be “predicted”
within a discrete portion of the AOI
Defining Cultural Heritage Risk Vectors
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Context of National-level CH Legislation
Cultural Heritage Protected
by National-level CH
Legislation
Cultural Heritage Not
Protected by National-level
CH Legislation
Total Cultural Heritage in the Area of Impacts
Percentage of
total recognizable
heritage in the
AOI that is
protected by
national-level
legislation varies
by country
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What might not be protected (vis-à-vis international
standards)
• Intangible heritage
• Indigenous peoples’ heritage
• Heritage of marginalized communities
• CH from the recent past
• Burials
Varies by country
National legislation
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Cultural Heritage Sensitivity
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Cultural Heritage Sensitivity
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Cultural Heritage Visibility
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Cultural Heritage Visibility
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Cultural Heritage Visibility
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Cultural Heritage Probability
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Cultural Heritage Predictability
Often directly correlated with visibility
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Cultural Heritage Predictability
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Cultural Heritage Predictability
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Cultural Heritage Visibility and Sensitivity
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• Algorithm-based approach
• Establish means for measuring across the selected variables:
Visibility
Modeling Risk
Estimated percentage of sites found using
different survey techniques
Site Type X Site Type Y Site Type Z
Intrusive survey (STPs) 95 10 100
Walkover survey 75 5 100
Satellite imagery analysis 15 15 100
Review of LiDAR Data 5 15 100
Geophysical survey 60 75 100
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Estimated percentage of sites found using
different methods
Survey Costs
(days/ha)Site Type X Site Type Y Site Type Z
Intrusive survey (STPs) 95 10 100 2.5
Walkover survey 75 5 100 1
Satellite imagery analysis 15 15 100 0.05
Review of LiDAR Data 5 15 100 0.01
Geophysical survey 60 65 100 25
Modeling Risk - Visibility Plus Survey Cost
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• Measuring across the selected variables: Sensitivity
• Scaled in different ways (scientific value, historical value, value
to local communities/intangible value)
• Can use variety of scales: example = low, moderate, high,
critical
Modeling Risk
Classification of Site Sensitivity
Site Type X Site Type Y Site Type Z
Scientific Value Low Moderate Low
Historical Value Low Low Low
Intangible Value Moderate Low Low
Community Value High Low Low
Final Value High Moderate Low
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Modeling Risk - Variables Plus Cost
EXAMPLE 1 (Site Type X) Visibility Survey Costs Sensitivity Probability
Chance Finds Cost
(per instance)
Intrusive survey (STPs) 95 2.5 High 80% $250K
Walkover survey 75 1 High 80% $250K
Satellite imagery analysis 15 0.05 High 80% $250K
Review of LiDAR Data 5 0.01 High 80% $250K
Geophysical survey 60 25 High 80% $250K
EXAMPLE 2 (Site Type Y) Visibility Survey Costs Sensitivity Probability
Chance Finds Cost
(per instance)
Intrusive survey (STPs) 10 2.5 Moderate 15% $50K
Walkover survey 5 1 Moderate 15% $50K
Satellite imagery analysis 15 0.05 Moderate 15% $50K
Review of LiDAR Data 15 0.01 Moderate 15% $50K
Geophysical survey 75 25 Moderate 15% $50K