asian dynamism and vietnam’s cprgs august 30, 2002 izumi ohno national graduate institute for...
DESCRIPTION
Why Vietnam? Vietnam’s CPRGS: widely recognized as “good practice” because of strong country ownership PRSP renamed to “Comprehensive Poverty Reduction & Growth (CPRGS) Strategy”TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS
August 30, 2002Izumi Ohno
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
![Page 2: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Background • Diverse approaches to poverty
reduction– Strategic alternatives– Options for institutional arrangements
• Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in East Asia?
• Vietnam’s CPRGS as a model for growth-oriented poverty reduction
![Page 3: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why Vietnam?
• Vietnam’s CPRGS: widely recognized as “good practice” because of strong country ownership
• PRSP renamed to “Comprehensive Poverty Reduction & Growth (CPRGS) Strategy”
![Page 4: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Why Vietnam? (contd.)
• First East Asian country to complete Full-PRSP (May 2002)
• Different perspective from the early PRSPs
![Page 5: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Agenda
1. PRSP Overview2. Main Features of Vietnam’s
CPRGS3. Asian Dynamism as Key Factor4. Japan’s Development
Cooperation to Vietnam
![Page 6: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1. PRSP Country Status
• 61 countries engaged in PRSP process [as of Aug. 2002]
• 18 completed Full-PRSP o/w : 12 Africa, 4 LAC, 1 ECA, plus 1 EA (=Vietnam)o/w: 15 linked to “Enhanced HIPC Initiative”
![Page 7: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
PRPS Countries by Progress
4
1
1
1
11
1
7
1
3
17
2
3
2
7
No. of countries
Full- PRSP
Interim- PRSP
before Interim- PRSP
Africa (35)
East Asia (6)
South Asia (4)
Europe &Central Asia (10)
Middle East & North Africa (2)
Latin America &Caribbean (4)
![Page 8: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
PRSP Countries by HIPC Status
1
5
3
17
1
7 2
1
1
10
4
4
1
4
No. of Countries
HIPC Completion Points reached
HIPC Decision Points reached
HIPC Decision Points not yet reached
HIPC Sustainable Cases
Non-HIPC
Africa (35)
East Asia (6)
South Asia (4)
Europe & Central Asia (10)
Middle East &North Africa (2)
Latin America &Caribbean (4)
![Page 9: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2. Features of Vietnam’s CPRGS
• 3 key criteria for localizing PRSPs1. No direct linkage with enhanced debt r
elief program, and low aid dependency2. National development strategy, guiding
budget & PIP3. Relatively high social achievements, bu
t underdeveloped economy
![Page 10: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Mauritania
Mozambique
Uganda BoliviaHonduras
Mongolia
Nepal
Kenya
Tanzania
Zambia
Nicaragua
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ODA/capita
US$
ODA/GDP%
Aid Dependency(US$ per capita and % of GDP, 1998)
![Page 11: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
National Development Strategy
• National goal: “Industrialization and Modernization” by 2020
• PRSP as a supplementary document to the core documents (i.e., 10-Year Strategy & 5-Year Plan), which embraces a growth-oriented development vision.
![Page 12: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
National Development Strategy
• PRSP to reinforce (not replace) the existing development strategy, dealing with poverty reduction in a cross-cutting and participatory manner.
![Page 13: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
PRSP as a Supplementary Document
Existing dev. plan
PRSP Sector plans
Budget
govern
supplement
![Page 14: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
PRSP as a Primary Document
Existing dev. plan
PRSP
Sector plans,budget, MTEF,
aid procedures
symbolic
govern
![Page 15: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Strong Concern for Social Equity
• Gov’t commitment to giving high priority to social equity
• Fairly developed network for social service delivery
• Existing policies & programs targeted at the poor
![Page 16: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Infant Mortality Rate (2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100La
o PD
R
Mya
nmar
Cam
bodi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Chin
a
Phili
ppin
es
Thai
land
Viet
nam
Kore
a
Mal
aysi
a
Taiw
an
Japa
n
Hong
Kon
g
Sing
apor
e
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002; For Taiwan, ADB, Key Indicators 2001 .
(per 1,000 live births)
Average of lowincome countriesAverage of middle
income countries
![Page 17: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Female Adult Illiteracy Rate (2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Lao
PDR
Cam
bodi
a
Chin
a
Indo
nesi
a
Mal
aysi
a
Mya
nmar
Taiw
an
Sing
apor
e
Hong
Kon
g
Viet
nam
Thai
land
Phili
ppin
es
Kore
a
%
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002; For Taiw an, ADB, Key Indicators 2001 .
Average of lowincome countries
Average of middleincome countries
![Page 18: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Vietnam’s CPRGS
… This is an action plan for realizing economic growth and poverty reduction objectives. The CPRGS paper sees a harmony between economic growth and measures to solve social problems….
quoted from CPRGS “Introduction”by The Socialist Republic of Vietnam, May 2002, pp.2-3.
![Page 19: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
East Asian Aspiration
Equitable GrowthGoal:
< Vietnam >Industrialization & Modernization
5-Year Plan & 10-Year Strategy
Means:
Growth Policies Social Policies
![Page 20: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
3. Asian Dynamism as Key Factor
• Development driven by trade & investment• East Asian growth as collective
phenomenon: “Flying Geese Pattern”• Development as catching up (vs.
development as poverty reduction) • Participation in regional/global production
network through int’l division of labor
![Page 21: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Share in World Export
02468
1012141618
60s 70s 80s 90s
(%)
Per Capita GNP Growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
60s 70s 80s 90s
(%)
East Asia
Sub Saharan Africa
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, White Paper on International Trade 2001, p.78.
East Asia
Sub Saharan Africa
![Page 22: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Structural Transformation in East Asia
Japan
NIEs
ASEAN4
Latecomers
Latestcomers
Country
Time
Garment Steel Popular TV Video HDTV
1
3 2
![Page 23: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
1 Japan
Garment SteelPopular
TV Video HDTVCom
petit
iven
ess
Time
Com
petit
iven
ess
Time
Com
petit
iven
ess
2 Garment
JapanNIEs
ASEAN4
LatecomersLatest comers
International Division of Labor3
Garment SteelPopular
TV Video HDTV
JapanNIEs
ASEAN4
LatecomersLatest comers
![Page 24: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
East Asia Reduced PovertyDespite Currency Crisis
Population in Extreme Poverty (%)
0102030405060
East Asia LatinAmerica
South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
19901999
![Page 25: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Vietnam’s Aspiration
• Vietnam with typical East Asian aspiration
• Very strong interest in narrowing intra-regional gaps (vs. original ASEAN)
• Also, interested in infrastructure, HRD, trade, FDI attraction
• Narrow “poverty reduction” approach, not enough.
![Page 26: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0%
Real GDP Growth Poverty
Progress in the Last Decade
Source: Government Statistics Office (GSO), Government of Vietnam.
58
25
37
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Below Total Poverty Line Below Food Poverty Line
19931998
%
Source: World Bank, “World Bank and Vietnam,” [http://www.worldbank.or.jp/06group/RC_flame.htm].
![Page 27: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Vietnam is a Large FDI Receiver
% of GDP, average 1991-99
5.4
0.8
1
1.1
1.2
1.6
3.2
3.5
3.2
0.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Vietnam (1991-00)Korea, Rep.
BrazilChina
MexicoArgentinaMalaysia
Chile
High Income countriesLow & middle incomecountries
(%)Source: Government of Vietnam and World Bank, SIMA database (cited from Vietnam 2010 Entering the 21st Centruy , Joint Report of World Bank, ADB and UNDP, November 2000.
![Page 28: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Per Capita Income (2000)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000Ja
pan
Hon
gKon
g
Sing
apor
e
Kor
ea
Mal
aysi
a
Thai
land
Phili
ppin
es
Chi
na
Indo
nesi
a
Viet
nam
Lao
PDR
Cam
bodi
a
US$
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002 .
at Actual Exchange Rate
at PPP
![Page 29: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
4 . Japan’s Development Cooperation
• Strong interest in the dynamic structure of the real economy
• Since 1992, supporting Vietnam’s three strategic tasks:– Long-term development– Systemic transition to a market economy– Active participation in East Asia’s dynamic
production network
![Page 30: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Japan’s Development Cooperation
• Balanced growth with social equity• Infrastructure and policy advice
– Transport & power– Large-scale, policy-oriented programs
• Partnership efforts
![Page 31: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Japan's ODA to Vietnam by Priority Area 1991-2001
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Agriculture
Education and health
Environmental conservation
Human resource andinstitution development
Economic infrastructure intransport and pow er etc.
Unit: number of approved projects
Grant andTechnicalCooperationYen Loan
Note: by fiscal year (April to March) and commitment base.Source: JICA Vietnam Office, JICA Activities and Grant Aid Projects in Vietnam, May 2002. JBIC Website, http://w w w .jbic.go.jp (Economic Cooperatin, ODA Project Data).
![Page 32: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Future Challenges
• Concrete growth strategy:– Preparing for global integration: AFTA
& WTO– Enhancing productivity and industrial
competitiveness– Coping with risks and emerging social
problems in the growth process
![Page 33: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Future Challenges
• Concern for growth: to be addressed not only in the bilateral context, but also under the multilateral framework
• Japan: to support Vietnam’s balanced growth with equity—through an appropriate mix of grants, loans, and technical cooperation.
![Page 34: Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070611/5a4d1bc97f8b9ab0599d6192/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
The END
For more details, please see our information module at:
http//www.grips.ac.jp/forum-e/
by GRIPS Development Forum