asia themac tics
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ASIA THEMACTICSMacquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASIA THEMACTICSASEAN FinTech – wallets to banks
Jayden VantarakisMacquarie Capital Securities (Singapore)+65 6601 [email protected] Please refer to page 22 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures
To monetise and move beyond payments, digital wallets are upgrading to full banks across ASEAN
New licenses are in the process of being created in Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore. Small banks in Indonesia are being repositioned.
We prefer an equity investment strategy of strong incumbents and nimble challengers in the region
June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Macquarie’s ASEAN banks team
Ben Shane Lim joined Macquarie Research Malaysia in 2018, bringing with him seven years of experience as a financial journalist. Building on his seasoned coverage of Malaysian corporates, capital markets and economics, Ben now covers banks, energy, aviation/transportation, as well as semiconductors.
Peach Patharavanakul joined Macquarie in July 2018 after working as a sell-side equity research analyst for 14 years covering the banking & financials, life insurance, consumer, and hotel sectors. She started her career as an auditor (1999-2002) and EVA analyst (2004).
Gilbert Lopez, head of Philippines Research, has nearly 25 years of continuous sell-side research experience in the Philippines. Starting in December 1992 after earning his Certified Public Accountant (CPA) title, he has been with several sell-side firms covering nearly all major industries in the Philippines, but is now focusing on strategy, banking, and conglomerates.
Jayden Vantarakis, head of ASEAN and Singapore Research, co-ordinates Macquarie’s Southeast Asia research as well as covering Indonesia and Singapore financials. He was appointed to this role after spending nine years as an equity analyst based in Indonesia covering strategy, banks, mining and energy. Prior to relocating to Asia, Jayden spent six years in a variety of roles in commercial banking in Australia including consumer banking, treasury operations and corporate credit.
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
ASEAN is young, urbanising, digitally savvy, and underbanked
20 18 16 11 8
20 17 16
12 9
18 16 18
14 14
14 15 17
13 15
11 14 12
16 17
17 20 20 34 36
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PH ID MY TH SG
%
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50 and over
94
82
72 7064
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MY SG TH ID PH
%
Smartphone penetration
98 85 82
49 34
98
86 83
49
39
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SG MY TH ID PH
%
15+ 25+
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
%
SG MY ID TH PH
Source: World Bank, Statista, Macquarie Research, June 2021
Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia half the population <30 Steady urbanization in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia
Smartphone penetration >60% in each market < half of Indonesians and Filipinos have bank accounts
2019
2020 2017
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Several tech platforms dominate e-commerce, rides and food delivery
Source: Company data, Similarweb, Macquarie Research, June 2021
Indonesia
Singapore
Philippines
Vietnam
ThailandMalaysia
Myanmar
China
Laos
137
57
0 5 10 15
Shopee SGLazada SGQoo10 SG
Amazon SG
6628
2019
0 50 100
Shopee VNThế giới …
TikiLazada VN
5538
21
0 20 40 60
Shopee PHLazada PHZalora PH
eBay5332
22
0 20 40 60
Shopee THLazada TH
Central…Advice
127134
3530
0 50 100 150
Shopee IDTokopediaBukalapakLazada ID
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Who are the major wallets by market?
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Digital banks – 3 categories, with the ASEAN markets at different stages
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Bank Jago (ARTO IJ, Outperform, Price Rp11,875, TP: Rp14,000)
GoJek-Tokopedia: 100m users, merchants and drivers 25m users in 7 years, 35m+ in 10
~2% market share in a decade Valuation range under different methodologies
29.2
86.1 86.1
115.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
GoJek Tokopedia Low High
Standalone Combined
m monthly active users
Full overlap
No overlap
25
112
64
29 24
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Bank Jagopotential
BRI BNI Mandiri BCA CIMB Niaga
m
Customers
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
20a 21e 22e 23e 24e 25e 26e 27e 28e 29e 30e
%
Total deposits Total loans Digital loans (RHS)
7,100 7,680
11,590 8,790
11,850
30,930
19,010 20,600
8,880
17,720 15,300
13,970
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
ResidualIncome
EV/Customer EV/Sales Average
Rp/shRange Midpoint
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
2020
2020
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Sea Ltd (SE US, Outperform, Price US$256.82, TP: US$270)
We find Digital Finance under-valued, given the synergistic benefits to SE’s e-commerce ecosystem. Fair value could rise from the current US$9/share in our base case to US$88/share in our bull case. Shopee Brasil’s GMV remains small but carries potential to grow bigger. E-commerce losses continue to narrow, while Digital Entertainment sees user spend grow.
We estimate SeaMoney’s Digital Bank enterprise value at $1b – $19b ($2 – $34/sh). Our current valuation uses 36x FY22E EV/Sales. P/B valuation shown for comparison.
We estimate payments enterprise value at $1 –$30b ($3—$34/share). Our current valuation uses 13x EV/Sales, implying 0.1x FY22E P/TPV
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0(mil v isits)
Shopee BR Mercado Livre Americanas
OLX Amazon BR
Shopee Brasil web traffic continues to grow while peers show slowing. GMV remains small, but is an upside optionality if it grows faster than expected.
Source: Company data, Similarweb, Macquarie Research, June 2021
$2 - $31/share
$3 - $34/share
$1.9 - $2.3/share
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
EV/ Customers
EV/ Sales
Book value
$1.3b - $29.9b
$1.7b - $4.2b
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
P/ TPV
EV/Sales
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Indonesia – repositioning small, dormant licenses
Source: Company data, FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2021. Prices as at 1 Jun 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Indonesia – A couple of strong incumbents. Payment fees the key risk factor
Source: Company data, Bank Indonesia, Macquarie Research, June 2021
Digital bank payments overtook card in 2020 BCA and increasingly BRI dominant
Payment fees represent a fifth of profits Employee rationalization a very slow process
21
31
49
72
59 56
43
25
19 13
7 -
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21e 22e 23e
%
Digital Card Branch
BCA62%Mandiri
7%
BRI17%
BNI6%
CIMB Niaga1%
Others7%
2020 performance
20.2 15.3 12.8 10.7
5.5
5.5 7.0
6.1
25.6
20.8 19.8 16.8
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
BRI BCA BNI Mandiri
%
Digital Physical
FY19-20
37 38 40 41 42 49 55 59 61 61 62 62
46 49 53 57 64 66 70 73 73 77 75 74 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 26 27 28 26 26 51 62 62 65
68 61 50 44 36 32 29 25 29 30 36
38 47 48 45 41 39 38 37 36 183
198 210
222 243 247 244 243 237 236 229 223
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
k employees
BRI Other state banks BCA Danamon Other mid-tier banks
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Malaysia e-wallets: Large scale, rising adoption
The big 3 e-wallets in Malaysia have achieved considerable scale that exceeds the incumbent banks.Rapid expansion was achieved via:
• Generous promotions/cash-back schemes, fueled by aggressive cash burn.
• Another catalyst for adoption in 2020 was sparked by the government’s RM450m disbursement in RM30 eTunai handouts via e-wallets.
• Touch ‘n Go (TnG) e-wallet leveraged users from prepaid transit cards, while Grab leveraged ~20m userbase. Boost built use case from scratch.
• Big-3 e-wallets have shied away from Visa/Mastercard tie-ups, preferring to acquire merchants; estimated combined footprint of >700k merchants.
• Share of payment value has touched ~15%, growing faster than credit/debit cards.
^2020 N/A*Mobile/non-mobile split not provided**Annual active users***MQ estimates
-300
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q 2
1
Num. txn 'bnE-payment volume
Credit card Charge card Debit cardE-money Total Volume
-
50
100
150
200
250
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Txn Value RM'bn
E-payment value
Credit card Charge card Debit cardE-money Total Txn Value
Source: Company data, Bank Negara Malaysia, Macquarie Research, June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Malaysia digital bank licenses: Grab and Boost lead contention
• Crowded landscape with clear leaders: there are 48 ‘Non-bank e-money issuer’ license holders in Malaysia with roughly 20 e-wallets in operation. But the biggest by far are GrabPay, Boost, and TnG e-wallet. Many license holders only have highly localised applications (e.g. within malls) or are highly niche to a single retail business (e.g. Petronas’ Setel for retail fuel).
• Co-opetition with banks, for now: All the big-3 e-wallet plays in Malaysia are in co-opetition with banks; two have had ties with local banks.
• TnG e-wallet is a 47% associate of CIMB, but announced it would not apply.
• Maybank has a 30% stake in GrabPay, but we think Maybank is unlikely to apply.
• Boost was the latest to announce a 60:40 JV with RHB to pursue a digital bank license application.
• Field is open to non-banks: Boost-RHB is the only apparent bank-backed bid. We expect over a dozen other bids, including GrabPay, SEA Ltd (Shopee), and BigPay.
Source: Company data, Bank Negara Malaysia, Macquarie Research, June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Thailand: Digital banking is still about partnerships
• Most of e-wallet providers are non-banks: The leader “TrueMoney” has 15 million accounts. This is larger than the number of mobile banking users of major banks (KBANK, SCB).
• E-wallet has large user bases, but mobile banking remains dominant: In Thailand, mobile banking applications still have higher transaction volume, transaction value, higher growth than non-bank e-money during 2017-2020.
• Rather than disrupting, wallet providers collaborate with banks: The Thai regulatory sandbox encourages small start-up/fintechs to collaborate. For example:
• KBank joined with Grab in developing GrabPay Wallet, • SCB partnered with Gojek, • KBank launched online banking services in Dolfin Wallet app,• LINE BK digital bank is a partnership between LINE and Kbank.
Source: BoT, Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
2020
2020
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Thailand - digital lending to monetise
As providers collaborate with banks, they also partner with banks to provide digital lending• Grab partnered with KBANK to offer speedy retail/micro-SME personal loans through Grab Financial with a Bt1-100k loan ticket size at
an 18% interest rate p.a. and 30-130days repayment term. • Dolfin wallet partnered with KBANK to offer personal loans in its application named Dolfin Money.• SCB 10x has funded Flash Group (Thailand’s first unicorn in ecommerce logistic) in series D+ and E. SCB may be able to provide
digital loan service to Flash’s merchant customers.
• Banks also stepped in digital lending; SCB digital loans grew 78% YoY: SCB and BAY converted their own personal loan customers from the offline channel into the digital channel. SCB saw its speedy loan product growing 179% yoy in 1Q21.
• Other (i.e., Product cross sales): Many e-wallet providers partnered with other financial service providers. TrueMoney sells insurance and mutual fund products, partnering with KKP to offer saving accounts to users.
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Philippines: Most ripe for digital disruption in the region
Regulatory framework supportive. BSP plans to issue up to 5 digital banking licenses. The first opened for business this quarter: Tonik Bank
Leading banks slow to invest digitally. The 4 leading banks in the Philippines have been slow to invest digitally, holding on to their large nationwide branch networks despite lessons learned from the pandemic.
BPI is best digitally in a weak field. Among the three largest banks, BPI is the only one with digital spending targets (10% of revenues from 7-8% previously) and goals of reducing an emphasis on physical branches (c10% reduction or 90-100).
65%66%
68%69%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Banking presence
12% 12%
19%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2018 2019 2020
E money penetration
Cities and towns with a banking presence - Philippines
E money penetration - Philippines
Source: BSP, Macquarie Research, June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Philippines: Smaller banks transforming themselves
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
Tonik Bank is the first digital bank licensed by the BSP following digital banking guidelines that required among others a PhP1billion minimum capitalisation.
Payment companies G Cash and Pay Maya have provided the most tangible disruption to the banks, with each having users that have far exceeded total credit cards in the Philippines of only 11m. The two companies have local telecom giants Globe (GLO PH –P1,811 – NR) and PLDT (TEL PH – P1,382 - NR) as key shareholders.
Smaller local banks UBP and RCB are more digitally ready than larger peers. UBP most noteworthy for being API ready and with a core banking system digitally equipped. Its large digital spend of PhP2bn annually has helped raise its customer count from 6.5m to 8.3m in over just a year. Foreign banks ING and CIMB have also pushed separate digital entities.
Payments Platform G Cash Pay MayaListed parent Globe (GLO PM) PLDT (TEL PM)Other partners Mynt, Ant, Bowave KKR, Tencent, IFCUsers 38m 35mMerchants social seller 1.6m naDigital touchpoints na 250K
Bank UnionBank Rizal Com'l East West Code UBP PM RCB PM EW PMMarket cap (PhP b) 91 34 21Digital platform Eon bank PH Diskartech KomoWebsite eonbankph.com diskartech.ph komo.phPhysical branches 197 332 228Assets (PhP bn) 774 772 408
Major Payments Platforms - Philippines Digital banks of local Philippine banks
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Singapore – 4 digital banks start operations from 2022
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021. Priced as at 3 Jun 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Singapore – Digital banks are entering a mature market
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000m SGD
Wallets POS - credit card
POS - debit Online - credit
Online - debit ATM withdrawal (RHS)
Singapore is a debit and credit card market
Would move everything over without hesitation
20%
Would move some services but not everything
60%
Would move just a few services
16%
Would not be open to moving any of their services to
neobanks4%
Intention to try is high, a fifth would move everything
84
75 75
63
73
55
64
54
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Existing bank Well known brandnot in financial
services
Financial servicescompany
Completely newstartup
%
Consumer SMEs
Trust factor higher with established brands
Source: Company data, MAS, VISA, Macquarie Research, June 2021
14.2 12.8
17.9
4.8
9.8
3.7
16.5
6.2 2.5
16.3
-5.7
4.8
-10.0
-5.0
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
DBS OCBC UOB
%
Retail operating depositsRetail non operating depositsWholesale - operatingWholesale - non operating
Incumbents have seen strong retail deposit growth3-year Cagr to 1Q21
(2020)
(2020)
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Singapore – we expect a 3-5% impact to profits over ~5 years
Proportion FY20 PATMI
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Singapore – Singapore banks as regional challengers
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2021
TMRW - UOB digibank - DBS
• Thailand and Indonesia
• Launched 2019 Thailand, 2020 Indonesia
• >25% of the Indonesia retail base are TMRW customers after 1 year
• Young Professionals / Young Professional Families. 300k customers as of 1Q21. 70% new to bank
• Gamification of savings. Credit products are coming (personal lending)
• At 2m customers, venture turns profitable
• India and Indonesia
• Launched 2016 India, 2017 Indonesia
• Pivoting to a physical+digital strategy (phygital) after the acquisition of Lakshmi Vilas bank in India (>500 branches)
• 3m total customers. After early open approach, focus is on higher average balance depositors
• India: 1m customers + 2m retail from LVB
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 March 2021AU/NZ Asia USA
Outperform 51.86% 68.57% 66.67% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.54% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Neutral 36.27% 20.79% 33.33% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.81 % of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Underperform 11.86% 10.63% 0.00% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.17% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie – Asia and USAOutperform – expected return >10%Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie – Australia/New ZealandOutperform – expected return >10%Neutral – expected return from 0% to 10%Underperform – expected return <0%
Note: expected return is reflective of a Medium Volatility stock and should be assumed to adjust proportionately with volatility risk
Volatility index definition*This is calculated from the volatility of historic price movements.
Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60-100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative.
High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40-60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative.
Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30-40% in a year.
Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25-30% in a year.
Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15-25% in a year.* Applicable to select stocks in Asia/Australia/NZ
Recommendation – 12 monthsNote: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made:Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests
EPS = adjusted net profit /efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).
Important Disclosures:
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
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Important Disclosures:
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIESASIA THEMACTICS
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