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Asia Regional Summary

September 2015


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Executive Summary HIGH RISK

2 | P a g e The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its name below.

In Southeast Asia, the latent threat of militancy remained a concern during the month of

August. In Indonesia and Malaysia, intensified counterinsurgency campaigns continued, as

dozens of suspected militants were arrested by special operation units in both Southeast

Asian countries. Similarly, neighboring Philippines continued to witness numerous clashes

between security forces and Abu Sayyaf militants as well as New People’s Army (NPA)

insurgents, despite the government’s efforts to neutralize the insurgency in the volatile

Mindanao region. Meanwhile, Thailand experienced what is referred to as the worst

militant attack ever, when 20 people were killed and over 120 were wounded in a bomb

blast in central Bangkok outside the Hindu Erawan Shrine. As speculations arise regarding

the motivation and identity of the perpetrators, the Royal Thai Police continues its

investigation at this time, arresting three possible suspects so far.

Hopes ahead of the National Security Advisor (NSA)-level talks on national security between

Pakistan and India were shattered after Islamabad announced the cancellation of the talks,

due to a disagreement over the slated dialogue’s agenda. As Kashmir remains a flashpoint

of a decade’s long conflict between the nuclear-armed rivals, border skirmishes and

heightened militant activity in Jammu & Kashmir were particularly notable during the past

month. Bilateral tensions were also noted on the Korean Peninsula following a military

standoff between the South and the North, resulting in increased propaganda war and

placement of military on high alert by both sides.

Political tensions continued to remain high in Malaysia, manifesting in the Bersih 4.0

protests in Kuala Lumpur, attended by hundreds of thousands of people, demanding PM

Najib’s resignation. Likewise, civic activism remains high in Japan as anti-security bills

protests continue to attract thousands of demonstrators across the island nation. As the

vote in the Upper House over the bills nears, such protests may possibly intensify,

particularly in Tokyo. On the contrary, the political climate in Sri Lanka witnessed a

reduction in tensions after the August 17 general elections transpired considerably

peacefully, and was announced as free and fair elections by both local and international

monitoring groups.

In China, several explosions in chemical plants, particularly the August 12 blast in Tianjin,

triggered intensified criticism toward the government and public outrage over low safety

standards and the storage and operation of chemical plants within residential areas. In

another notable development, China’s stock market crashed after the Shanghai Composite

Index fell 6 percent on August 25, marking the worst drop since 2007. As the government

will reportedly halt making large scale purchases in the stock market, concerns remain over

further declines in the coming months.


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The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the

past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its name below.

HIGH RISK

Pakistan ................................................................................................................... 4

MEDIUM RISK

Bangladesh .............................................................................................................. 5

China ....................................................................................................................... 6

India ........................................................................................................................ 7

Indonesia ................................................................................................................. 8

Malaysia .................................................................................................................. 9

Myanmar ............................................................................................................... 10

Philippines ............................................................................................................. 11

Sri Lanka ................................................................................................................ 12

Thailand ................................................................................................................ 13

LOW RISK

Japan ..................................................................................................................... 14

South Korea ........................................................................................................... 15

Taiwan................................................................................................................... 16

Notable Dates for September 2015 ....................................................................................... 17


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Punjab Home Minister targeted in suicide attack in Attock District, killing 19.

Government withdraws from National Security Advisor (NSA) meeting with India.

We advise against all nonessential travel to Pakistan given the heightened threat of

militancy, criminality, kidnappings and sectarian tensions throughout the country.

Punjab Home Minister targeted in suicide attack in Attock District, 19 dead

On August 16, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive device inside the Punjab Home

Minister’s office situated in the village of Shadi Khan in Attock District, Punjab. The bombing

destroyed the building and killed 19 people including Home Minister Shuja Khanzada. In the

wake of the attack, 140 suspected militants were apprehended in South Punjab. In addition,

on August 22, four men from a religious Islamic seminary, believed to be affiliated with a

banned militant outfit, were arrested in connection to the suicide attack.

The August 16 suicide attack highlights the persistent threat of militancy within Pakistan and

illustrates the operational capabilities of militants to carry out targeted attacks on political

figures. Furthermore, we assess that security forces will continue to increase operations

against militant entities throughout Pakistan, in order to restore security and minimize the

prevalent threat. These are likely to focus on tribal regions located near the Pakistan-Afghan

border given that these remote areas remain militant strongholds.

Government withdraws from NSA meeting with India

On August 22, Pakistan cancelled the National Security Advisor (NSA)-level talks with India

that were slated to take place in New Delhi, after accusations were traded by the neighboring

countries over responsibility for continued ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC).

The NSA-level talks were initially scheduled on July 10 during a meeting between Prime

Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in Russia, and indicated an

important development in diplomatic relations between the neighboring countries.

The cancellation of the NSA-level talks highlights the lingering tensions between Pakistan and

India which have plagued the countries’ bilateral relations for decades. These tensions have

further been strained by persistent claims of control from both countries regarding Kashmir.

In addition, the overt political maneuvering by both sides prior to the talks may reveal a lack

of willingness by both governments to commit to a diplomatic dialogue, specifically in the

context of Kashmir. Given the cancellation of the talks, it is likely that further ceasefire

violations will be witnessed in the coming weeks, however it is unlikely that a meeting

addressing national security will be scheduled in the near future.

Back to table of contents

HIGH RISK Notable Dates

Pakistan

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Secular, anti-extremist blogger stabbed to death in Dhaka, fourth since January 2015.

Political violence continues between Awami League, BNP.

Travel to Dhaka and Chittagong should be for business essential purposes only at

this time, given general instability and reports of violence from political rivalries and

militancy.

Fourth secular blogger stabbed to death since January 2015

On August 7, a secular blogger was killed when five assailants broke into his residence and

stabbed him to death, making him the fourth anti-extremist and social activist to be murdered

since the beginning of 2015. Reportedly, a local branch of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent

(AQIS) claimed responsibility through an email sent to a media outlet. Bangladeshi security

forces arrested two suspects in connection to the murder. Furthermore, on August 18 three

suspected members of, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), a banned outfit, were arrested for

conducting attacks on two secular bloggers earlier in the year.

The August 7 incident underscores the pernicious threat of religious extremism against

secularist activists who are critical of Islam. Furthermore, it illustrates the prevalent risk of

Islamic extremism within Bangladesh, in spite of continued measures by the government to

crackdown on such Islamist militant factions. Given the fissures between secular voices and

hardline organizations, future attacks against secular bloggers remain liable.

Political violence continues between Awami League, BNP

The month of August witnessed political relations between the ruling Awami League (AL) and

the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) deteriorate further. Earlier in the month,

Minister of Information Hassanul Haq Inu accused the BNP attempting to curb freedom of

expression in the country by aiding the murderers of secular blogger Niloy Neel Choudhury.

State Minister for Finance, Md Shahriar Alam, was the victim of an alleged assassination

attempt when two explosions occurred next to vehicle in Rajshahi district on August 14.

Several Jubo League activists were also killed in August, allegedly by actors affiliated to BNP.

On August 29, two AL leaders were wounded in a gunfight with BNP activists in Natore district

of Rajshahi division. The gunfight occurred as BNP leaders retaliated against Jubo League

youth members of the AL attacked a BNP activist. In further retaliation, AL activists reportedly

set fire to BNP premises and vandalized local stores in the city.

Heightened political tensions between both parties typically manifest in incidents of violence

in Bangladesh. While the Awami League has attempted to delegitimize the opposition BNP

publically for its alleged role in supporting acts of Islamist militancy in the country, including

the killings of secular bloggers in the country, the latter party still retains the ability to mobilize

large masses for its rallies. Therefore, we assess that further instances of violent clashes

between mobs supporting either parties are liable to occur in Bangladesh in the days and

months to come.


MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Bangladesh

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Hundreds of fatalities in large explosions at chemical warehouse in Tianjin.

China’s stock market continues to fall amid signs economic growth is flagging.

Travel to China may continue at this time while adhering to standard security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

Tianjin explosions result in hundreds of fatalities, localized contamination, protests

At approximately 23:30 (local time) on August 12, explosions ripped through a chemical

warehouse in the northern city of Tianjin. As of August 28, at least 145 people have been

reported killed, 797 wounded, with 28 still missing. Additionally, reports suggest that several

dangerous substances, including sodium cyanide and toluene diisocyanate, were released

following the blasts, causing localized contamination in the area. While Beijing has arrested

several officials it believes to be responsible for the explosion, including 12 on August 27,

protests among Tianjin residents over the environmental contamination and the

government’s role in the plant’s lax safety standards continue. Additionally, on August 22,

another blast at a chemical plant was reported in Zibo, a city in eastern Shandong Province,

leaving one killed and nine wounded.

The blast in Tianjin has reignited a long-running fear among the Chinese public over the

government’s perceived inability/unwillingness to mitigate environmental degradation.

Continuing reports of possible chemical contamination in and around Tianjin, as well as the

possibility of subsequent explosions, threaten to manifest this panic in ongoing protests over

the coming weeks and months. In the short term, the government is likely to continue

arresting company officials and making symbolic gestures towards tightening safety standards

in order to appease public rage. However, it remains unclear whether such moves will be

enough to stave off continuing instability over the issue.

China’s stock market instability continues

Despite significant government intervention, China’s stock market remains volatile. After

falling 8.5 percent on August 24, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6 percent on August 25,

marking the worst drop since 2007. China’s government has taken a variety of steps to stem

the onslaught, including censoring information regarding trading and authorizing state-run

firms to artificially prop up stock prices. The stock market rout reflects worrying signs from

China’s larger economy; reports from August show that the manufacturing sector in the

country is at its weakest since the global financial crisis.

Although stocks have shown signs of rebounding since August 25, the bump is likely to be

short lived. This is due to the fact that the state intervention holding up prices is too costly for

Beijing to keep up, and because the stocks’ slump is symptomatic of a more general slowdown

in the country’s economic growth. In light of this projected fall, China is likely to withhold

information domestically about market declines, which could raise anxiety as well as the

possibility of additional protests in the areas hit hardest by the downturn.



China

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India

Security forces targeted by militants, cross-border firing along LoC, in Jammu &

Kashmir.

Intensified Maoist activity in India’s “Red-corridor” continues.

Travel to India can continue while adhering to basic security precautions regarding

petty crime and maintaining heightened vigilance for militant risks.

Border skirmishes, heightened militant activity in Jammu & Kashmir

The month of August witnessed heavy cross-border firing and heightened militant activity

along the Line of Control (LoC) in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Border skirmishes saw a

sharp uptick in the days leading up to the National Security Advisor (NSA) – level talks between

India and Pakistan, originally scheduled to be held on August 23-24, which collapsed on the

eve of the talks. Instances of border violence were accompanied by an increase in cross-border

infiltration and subsequent militant activity in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, which targeted

civilians and security forces. This was met with sustained counterinsurgency operations from

Indian security forces, resulting in frequent firefights with militants. Several army troops and

suspected militants were killed in the violence which persisted through August, with the

Indian Army claiming to have captured two militants alive on separate occasions.

The aforementioned incidents highlight the ongoing threat of domestic/cross-border militant

activity in Jammu and Kashmir. Islamist militants, aided by the fact that Indian security forces

are kept busy by Pakistani border firing, have repeatedly demonstrated their capability to

infiltrate borders and conduct attacks on army assets and civilians, leading to heavy casualties.

Intensified Maoist activity

During August, India witnessed an intensification in insurgent activity by Maoists in India’s

“Red Corridor”. On August 26, three Border Security Force (BSF) officials and a civilian were

killed in the state of Odisha by Maoists in a raid that employed improvised-explosive devices

(IEDs). On August 9, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) recovered 95 improvised explosive

devices in Latehar district of the state of Jharkhand.

The incidents highlight the persistent threat of insurgency in Maoist strongholds in the

underdeveloped states of Eastern India. The Modi government has continued to pursue

policies aimed at the infrastructure development of peripheral regions that are disconnected

to mainstream society. Increased insurgent activities as exposed by the recovery of arms and

ammunition as well as the growing frequency of attacks on government assets and

installations are part of an attempt to prevent the central government to gain legitimacy

among the locals in the areas dominated by Maoist insurgents.



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Militants continue to clash with security forces throughout the country during August

as authorities attempt to limit spread of militant Islamist ideology.

Residents of Kampung Pulo evicted on August 20 resulting in clashes between evictees

and security personnel.

Travel to Jakarta [and/or other urban area] can continue while adhering to standard

security protocols given the threat of militancy and crime.

Anti-Islamist militant operations by Densus 88 continue

Anti-militancy operations continued throughout Indonesia during the month of August,

culminating in tens of suspected militants arrested by the Indonesian National Police special

operations unit, Densus 88, along with the confiscation of weapons, explosives, and Islamist

propaganda. Four were killed and an additional 12 individuals were wounded in militant

related clashes throughout August. The recovery of explosives, weapons, and Islamist

propaganda in the numerous anti-militant operations in August continue to highlight the

concern of Islamist militancy in the country with the world’s largest Muslim population.

Furthermore, Indonesia is frequently used as a transit point for individuals seeking to join the

Islamic State (IS) and by fighters returning from Iraq and Syria. As such, many individuals opt

to stay in Indonesia to recruit from amongst local Indonesians. In this context, we assess that

the central government is liable to continue the increased operational tempo against potential

IS sympathizers in the coming weeks given the latent threat.

Forced eviction

On August 20, Jakarta Metro authorities forced the eviction and relocation of residents of

Kampung Pulo in East Jakarta’s Kampung Melayu area of Jatinegara district. While the

administration sought to relocate the residents to the Jatinegara low-cost apartment complex,

the residents refused to comply, resulting in the deployment of approximately 2,255 security

personnel to quell the unrest. Clashes between the security personnel and residents of

Kampung Pulo led to the use of tear gas and water cannons against the latter. Meanwhile, on

August 29, a political group dubbed Lawan Ahok (Enemies of Ahok), protested against the

evictions at Park Suropati in Menteng sub-district of Central Jakarta, while former residents

of Kampung Pulo protested outside the Jakarta Governo’s residence, denouncing the

excessive deployment of security forces during their eviction.

At present, it remains unlikely that the administration will back away from the evictions,

especially since they have decided to go ahead with the eviction without waiting for the

decision of the State Administrative Court on the matter. Considering the forced nature of the

evictions, further clashes between residents and local police should be anticipated in the days

to come. Likewise, there is also the risk of unrest in the Jatinegara district from disruptive

protests.



Indonesia

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10 Islamic State (IS)-linked financers, recruiters arrested; highlights growing militant

influence in Malaysia.

PM Najib likely to retain power despite mounting society, political pressure.

Travel to Kuala Lumpur can continue while taking necessary precautions to counter the

threat of criminality, especially during the nighttime hours.

Islamic State affiliates arrested

On August 20, 10 suspected IS-linked assailants, which included six security force personnel,

were apprehended by Malaysian authorities for allegedly conducting fundraising activities for

IS operatives to either join the IS-led insurgency in Iraq and Syria, or conduct militancy in

Malaysia, along with the alleged recruitment of militants. To that end, security forces have

conducted lengthy investigations over the course of the last few months, which have led to

the arrest of dozens IS-linked militants, as seen on April 5 and on April 25, highlighting the

latent threat jihadists pose to the country. In that light, we assess that authorities are likely to

expand investigations and tactical operations over the coming weeks and months to target

illicit fundraisers and recruiters in an attempt to counter IS-influence both in Malaysia and

internationally. That said, we continue to assess that the Malaysian government will be unable

to completely mitigate the threat of IS influence in the country due to the fact that

transnational Islamists consider Malaysia as a lucrative area of operation with various

penetrable soft targets, making the country a strategic platform for militant activity.

PM Najib likely to retain power despite mounting society, political pressure

Thousands of people demonstrated against Prime Minister (PM) Datuk Seril Najib Razak

throughout August, amidst controversial media reports released in July linking the 1

Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) investment fund with PM Najib, accusing him of

the embezzlement of over 700 million USD. The highlight of the unrest was marked by the

Bersih 4.0 protests held nationwide on August 29-30 and organized by a coalition of NGOs

under the banner of the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih). The Kuala Lumpur

rally was attended by approximately 250,000 people. Additionally, former Malaysian PM

Mahathir Mohamad put forward a call of no confidence against PM Najib.

Nonetheless, following the Bersih 4.0 protests, PM Najib refused to resign, and called for

national unity. Despite the widespread aforementioned displeasure with PM Najib, the

PM is liable to remain in office, as the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party

holds majority support and has dominated Malaysian politics since 1957. Coupled with

the recent cabinet reshuffle and his influence in or over various authorities, the PM still

maintains a fairly strong position within the government. In this context, we assess that

PM Najib has for now, positioned himself to remain in his role as the Malaysian leader.



Malaysia

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NCA talks continue between government, armed groups.

President Thein Sein continues efforts to consolidate power base.

Travel to Naypyidaw, Mandalay and Yangon may continue at this time while

adhering to basic security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and petty

crime.

Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) talks continue between government, armed groups.

On August 15, the Karen National Union (KNU) signed the NCA with the government after

negotiations between the government and the aligned ethnic bloc had failed to achieve an

agreement after its ninth session. This decision also followed the refusal by the government

to accept the collective peace offer made by three ethnic insurgent groups, the Ta’ang

National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and

the Arakan Army (AA), during talks on August 5. Amidst continued fighting in Shan State,

further discussions surrounding the signing of a final ceasefire agreement are slated to take

place on September 9, including several groups that were left out of previous discussions.

Nevertheless, the MNDAA and other ethnic groups from the Kokang self- administered zone

in Shan State have still been omitted from the peace talks.

Given the lack of success in previous negotiations, it is unlikely that any substantial agreement

will be achieved during this session of discussion, despite a more inclusive ethnic bloc. In

addition, given that the MNDAA was not included, clashes between MNDAA affiliated

militants and government troops in Kokang area of Shan State are likely to continue.

President Thein Sein efforts to consolidate power base

The Secretary-General of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) Maung Maung

Thein along with the parliament speaker Shwe Mann were both removed from USDP

headquarters after security forces raided the ruling party’s offices in Naypyidaw, on August

12. On August 20, the last two bills that will place restrictions on religious conversion and

polygamy were passed by parliament, and are awaiting the approval of President Thein Sein.

Meanwhile, on August 30, the government banned political parties from criticizing the army

or the constitution in state media during campaign season for the upcoming elections.

Given that the legislation is perceived as heavily biased against religious freedom and ethnic

minorities within Myanmar, it could be viewed that President Thein Sein will approve the bills

as a means of consolidating political power among the Buddhist majority. Overall, these

developments are likely efforts by President Thein Sein to set himself as the frontrunner in

the upcoming elections, as he limits dissent and minorities.



Myanmar


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Clashes between Armed Forces of the Philippines, communist insurgent New People’s

Army (NPA) continue in country’s south, with militant attacks reported.

Threat of Abu Sayyaf militancy persists, as security forces continue operations to

reassert control over the area’s rural regions.

Travel to Metro Manila may continue at this time while adhering to standard

security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

Clashes between AFP, insurgents

On August 1, the government arrested a prominent NPA leader in the Western Visayas

region. On August 3, security forces clashed with NPA insurgents in Masbate Province,

a high risk NPA stronghold; four NPA fighters died, as well as one soldier. One day

later, on August 4, one security officer died and five soldiers were wounded in an NPA

attack in South Cotabato. On August 7, NPA insurgents also killed a counselor in

Camarines Sur, which had just been declared last year a Conflict Manageable and

Ready for Further Development (CMRFD) area. Finally, on August 18, AFP forces killed

five NPA militants after the latter ambushed them in Bukidnon Province in Mindanao.

Likewise, the AFP has reinforced its offensive against the jihadist Abu Sayyaf

insurgency in the country’s south over the past month. Most notably, following a

firefight on August 11, authorities found military equipment as well as the decapitated

body of a village chief from Zamboanga del Norte who had been kidnapped earlier. In

the wake of the beheading, AFP forces launched an operation to rescue remaining

hostages. Several captured coast guard personnel managed to escape; Abu Sayyaf

retained nine hostages. 10 Abu Sayyaf militants were killed in a clash with AFP in Sulu

on August 21; one week later on August 28, 10 Marines were wounded in a skirmish

in the same area with the jihadist group.

The above underscores the persistent threat of the NPA and Abu Sayyaf in the

Philippines, especially in rural areas. Despite the government’s efforts to neutralize

the insurgency, the NPA’s ability to carry out operations in high-risk areas, such as

Masbate, as well as in CMRFD ones, such as Camarines Sur, signifies that they still

boast wide operational latitude. Furthermore, the NPA is likely to escalate their

assaults in the weeks to come due to next year’s general elections. Similarly, despite

ongoing operations, Abu Sayyaf militants have been successful in ambushing security

forces and undermining stability. However, following the decapitation of the local

official, security forces have bolstered their campaign, which could increase casualties

in the short-term while also weakening the militants’ long-term offensive capabilities.



Philippines


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Rajapaksa defeated in general elections on August 17, as UNP-led coalition remains in

power.

Travel to Sri Lanka, including Colombo can continue as normal while taking basic

security precautions given the threat of protests and possibility for political unrest.

Rajapaksa defeated in general elections on August 17, as UNP-led coalition remains in

power

The days leading up to the elections were marred with incidents of localized,

politically motivated attacks, beginning with July 31, when an unidentified armed

group opened fire into the crowd at the United National Party (UNP) political rally

in Colombo, killing one and injuring 11. Additionally, on August 6, unidentified

assailants opened fire on the residence of a UNP supporter, and on August 8, a

People's Liberation Front campaign office in Colombo was attacked, and its

exterior was set ablaze. On August 15, an active UNP supporter was fatally shot

in Batticaloa, in Eastern Province.

The UNP was victorious in the general elections, winning 106 seats in the 225-

member parliament, under Prime Minister (PM) Ranil Wickremesinghe and

incumbent President Maithripala Sirisena, marking the second electoral defeat of

former President Mahinda Rajapaksa in six months. This result demonstrates that

while Rajapaksa is accredited with ending the country’s 25-years’ civil war in 2009,

allegations of corruption, misuse of office, and nepotism have sullied his image

and hampered his ability to win elections. Meanwhile, the center-right UNP’s

victory needs to form a national government, as neither party won a simple

majority required to form a government on its own. The UNP has been joined by

the Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) to create a coalition national government

and majority in Parliament and their swearing in ceremony for the Council of

Ministers is slated for September 2.

Lastly, given that both local and international monitoring groups have declared

the elections free and fair, we assess that Rajapaksa as well as his party United

People's’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) are unlikely to call into question the August 17

vote. Consequently, we assess that as a member of the opposition camp,

Rajapaksa and his party may find themselves deserting tactics of street protests

and resort to more politically-oriented maneuvers such as carrying out

disruptions in parliament in the coming months to prevent passage of reforms or

bills sponsored by the coalition.



Sri Lanka


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20 people killed, over 120 wounded, by bomb blast in popular tourist destinations in

Bangkok on August 17.

Travel to Bangkok may continue while adhering to security precautions regarding

the latent risk of civil unrest and militancy.

20 people killed, over 120 wounded, by bomb blast in Bangkok on August 17

On August 17, an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded at the Rajprasong

intersection in central Bangkok outside the Hindu Erawan Shrine, at approximately

19:00 (local time). 20 people were killed, of which ten were foreign nationals, in the

attack and at least 120 were wounded. Later, on August 18, an explosive device was

thrown below Taksin Bridge in Bangkok, where it exploded in the Chao Phyraya River;

no injuries were reported following the blast. In response to the two bombings,

authorities bolstered the security at Suvarnabhumi International Airport, also known

as Bangkok International Airport. Moreover, 23 countries, including the US, UK, and

Canada, have released travel warnings in the wake of the attack.

While no individual or group has claimed responsibility for the bombing,

(RTP) continues its investigation, and arrested on August 29 a foreigner in connection

with the attack. According to RTP spokesman, the suspect was part of a people-

smuggling gang assisting illegal migrants to obtain counterfeit documents, and the

bomb attack was in response to a recent crackdown by Thai authorities.

While the connection of the detained foreigner to the bombing remains unclear at

this time, the RTP’s searches for a prime suspect so far have been unfruitful and have

drawn criticism for a poor investigation. With this in mind, we assess that the RTP is

likely to conduct further arrests of possible suspects over the coming days and weeks,

and release additional information regarding the ongoing investigation so as to

display efficiency and progress in bringing the perpetrators to justice. Furthermore,

as the Thai government has been keen on ruling out the involvement of transnational

militant groups in the attack, we assess that the direction of investigation will likely

be steered toward arresting illegal migrants.

Meanwhile, in light of the follow-up bombing in August 18, we further assess that

there continues to remain the potential for additional attempts to attack strategic

locations throughout Bangkok, as well as the potential for more explosives being

found over the coming weeks.



Thailand

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Civil activism continues as national security bills tabled in Upper House despite

widespread public discontent.

Typhoon Goni hits Japan; authorities likely to take precautions as seasonal storms

slated to continue until October.

Travel to Japan can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions

regarding protests.

Civil activism continues as national security bills tabled in Upper House despite widespread

public discontent

Activists conducted weekly demonstrations as a part of their ongoing campaign

against Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government, and the security legislative

amendments to the constitution the ruling coalition is trying to achieve. Weekly anti-

national security bill protests often attracted hundreds to thousands of participants

from all aspects of Japanese society, most notably the inclusion of several members

of Japan’s Federation of Bar Association along with many prominent academics.

Despite the regular turnout, localized unrest rarely occurs. Additional protests against

renewed nuclear power continued through August as Japan restarted its first nuclear

reactor since the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

The national security bills could pass through parliament before the end of the current

National Diet session on September 27. In line with this, leading up to the National

Diet’s cessation, there remains the potential that protests in Tokyo could intensify in

September, leading to increased security around government buildings. Moreover,

although protests thus far have been relatively peaceful with only a few accounts of

localized unrest, as anxiety and public discontent mounts, localized unrest during

future protests may manifest in the form of scuffles with police.

Typhoon Goni hits Japan; authorities likely to take precautions as seasonal storms slated to

continue until October

Typhoon Goni hit Japan on August 26, prompting the Japanese government to advise the

evacuation of approximately 280,000 people in Kyushu Island and western Japan. Hundreds

of flights and trains were cancelled as a result. In that context, and with the typhoon season

slated to continue through October, Japanese authorities are likely to take the necessary

precautions over the course of the coming weeks to mitigate any potential damages caused

by seasonal storms. As a result, if storms renew, further flight and train delays are likely to

occur, and authorities will likely ensure that evacuation procedures and precautionary

measures are conducted, all of which could potentially adversely impact business continuity.


LOW RISK Notable Dates

Japan

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Tensions between Seoul, Pyongyang rise following fire exchange in DMZ on August 20.

Travel to Seoul may continue at this time, while adhering to standard security protocols

regarding protests, crime and the lingering risk of conflict with North Korea.

Tensions between Seoul, Pyongyang rise following fire exchange in DMZ on August 20

During the month of August, there was a significant escalation of tensions on the

Korean Peninsula after both sides put their respective militaries on high alert and

mobilized large numbers of military forces, including 70 percent of North Korea’s

submarine capabilities, into strategic offensive positions, following a military standoff

on August 20. Tensions arose after an August 4 landmine blast in

the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) injured South Korean troops, for which Seoul

subsequently blamed Pyongyang and launched an extensive anti-North propaganda

loudspeaker campaign on August 10. Following this, on August 20, an exchange of fire

between the two countries occurred when the North fired a short range rocket at one

of the loudspeaker installations prompting an artillery bombardment by Seoul on the

same day.

The exchange of fire underscores the most notable volatile security incident between

the two countries since 2010 when a South Korean warship was sunk by a North

Korean torpedo fired by a submarine. In line with this, the two nations are still

technically in a de-facto state of war, as a peace agreement was never reached

following the end of the Korean War in 1953. Although the latest crisis on the Korean

Peninsula was resolved by diplomatic means, with an agreement reached on August

25 after days of marathon negations that started on August 22, a renewed escalations

of tensions over the coming weeks and months still remains possible. In that regard,

both sides are likely going to be cautious of each other over the coming months, and

increased military presence will likely be witnessed on the DMZ, the Yellow Sea, and

other strategic border locations.



South Korea

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Pag

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Student activists continue to protest against Ma administration’s “China-centric”

curriculum changes.

Travel to Taipei can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions

regarding civil unrest and protests.

Student activists continue to protest against Ma administration’s “China-centric” curriculum

changes

On August 3, student activists and officials from Taiwan’s Ministry of Education (MOE)

left a meeting deadlocked over a series of controversial curriculum changes the ruling

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) party has initiated, and activists criticized, as favoring

China ideologically. This meeting came after weeks of protests, as well as the arrests

of 33 activists who attempted to occupy the MOE building in Taipei on July 23; one

later committed suicide. While Education Minister Wu Se-hwa did agree to lift charges

against the other 32 arrested, he has refused to cancel or delay the proposed

curriculum changes, offering instead for schools to be able to choose whether to

utilize the associated textbooks. Although the student activists temporarily vacated

their protest camp due to Typhoon Soudelor in mid-August, they have rejected these

overtures and promised to continue and escalate the protests in the coming days and

weeks. The new guidelines have been implemented as of August 1.

The current dispute between students and the KMT government is unlikely to resolve

itself in the near future, partly due to the fact that the curriculum changes in question

have already largely been implemented. Furthermore, there is a large disparity in

perceptions between the two sides, as well as political posturing in advance of the

2016 national elections. While the protesters did abandon their protest spot near the

MOE due to the arrival of Typhoon Soudelor, they will likely attempt to return to the

area, as well as initiate more protests at other government buildings or key locales.

Such buildings could include the Legislative and Executive Yuans, which were the focus

of similar activism during the Sunflower Revolution in 2014.

The current crisis over the curriculum changes has not only weakened the KMT but

given the opposition DPP an electoral opportunity. As opposed to views of the vast

majority of Taiwanese, a powerful contingent of KMT members, including the current

President, Ma Ying-jeou, is seen as being too overtly pro-China. While the evidence

suggests that the DPP has not organized, the recent protests against the KMT, in her

rejection of the “One China” principle and the 1992 Consensus positions, Tsai Ing-

wen, the incumbent chairwoman of the DPP and the party’s presidential candidate

for the 2016 election, is set to reap the most politically from this civic movement’s

momentum.



Taiwan

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Notable Dates for September 2015

Asia

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

September 24-26, 2015 Eid- al-Adha A religious Muslim holiday that usually

lasts for three days as dates vary

according to country. It commemorates

the willingness of Ibrahim (Abraham) to

obey God by sacrificing his son,

according to Muslims the son to be

sacrificed was Ishmael. Many Muslims

celebrate the holiday by reenacting

Ibrahim’s obedience by sacrificing a cow

or other animal and then rejoicing in a

feast. It is the most important feast in

the Muslim calendar.

In Bangladesh, it is marked on

September 24-26. In Pakistan, the

holiday is a public holiday that is

celebrated from September 25-26 and is

known as Eid ul-Azha. In the Philippines,

the holiday is observed on September

24. Malaysia and Singapore, where the

Muslim holiday is locally known as Hari

Raya Haji, is observed on September 24-

25 and September 24 respectively.

Indonesia and Sri Lanka will observe Eid-

al-Adha on September 24.

Bangladesh – Back to portion


September 5, 2015 Janmashtami It is one of the most important Hindu

festivals which celebrates the birth of

lord Krishna. It is marked as a public

holiday in Bangladesh as such

government offices and most businesses

tend to remain closed. Minor disruptions

to business continuity are likely to occur

due to the public holiday.


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China – Back to portion


September 3, 2015 Victory Day- marks the

70th Anniversary of

Victory Over Japan.

Victory Day is the day on which Japan

surrendered during World War II. As a

national holiday, it will be celebrated

with, among other festivities, a large

military parade in Beijing, to be attended

by President Xi Jinping. In light of

political tensions between China and

Japan, localized protests against Japan

and its government are possible in major

Chinese cities. It is advised to maintain

vigilance throughout all major cities in

China, given the nationalist nature of

Victory Day. Similarly, allot for

disruptions to business continuity due to

high traffic congestion and the likelihood

of public and private businesses closing

or having reduced hours.

September 27, 2015

Mid-Autumn Festival (Zhongqiu Jie)

The Mid-Autumn Festival is one of the

most important traditional holidays in

China, and is traditionally celebrated by

hanging colorful lanterns and eating

“mooncakes.” As a major national

holiday, national, state, and local

government and nongovernment offices

will likely be closed; some businesses

may have reduced hours. It is advised to

allot for disruptions to business

continuity as well as with additional

travel time due to the potential for

traffic congestion.

India - Back to portion


September 5, 2015 Janmashtami Also known as Krishna Jayanti, it is one

of the most important Hindu festivals

which celebrates the birthday of lord

Krishna. Janmashtami is a gazette

holiday in several regions of India,

including Delhi, Punjab and Tamil Nadu,

and as such many government offices


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and some businesses remain closed. The

holiday is celebrated with ceremonies

taking place at temples across India

dedicated to Krishna.

September 17, 2015

Ganesh Chaturthi Also known as Vinayaka Chaturthi, it is a

Hindu holiday that celebrates the birth

of Lord Ganesh and it is celebrated in the

following regions of India: Andhra

Pradesh, Goa, Gujarat, Maharashtra,

Orissa, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu.

Nevertheless, the holiday is one of the

most widely celebrated across India due

to the popularity of the deity. In the

regions of Andhra Pradesh and

Maharashtra celebrations are public and

often last for ten days. Since the holiday

is restricted government offices and

businesses remain open. In Andhra

Pradesh and Maharashtra there may be

potential for disruptions to travel due to

public celebrations.

Japan – Back to portion


September 21-23, 2015 Silver Week national

holidays.

Silver Week is a series of national

holidays during September 21-23, which

creates a three day-long national holiday

period. Respect for the Aged Day is

slated for September 21, a Bridge Public

Holiday, which is a day between the two

holidays, is slated for September 22, and

Autumnal Equinox Day will occur on

September 23. Due to the

aforementioned national holidays,

potential business and government

office closures may be witnessed, this in

turn will likely disrupt business

continuity. Furthermore, during the

Silver Week period, many Japanese

travelers leave the urbans areas for

vacations in the outing areas of Japan.


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Malaysia – Back to portion


September 16, 2015 Malaysia Day Malaysia Day commemorates the

establishment of the Malaysian

federation in 1963, marking the joining

together of Malaya, North Borneo,

Sarawak, and Singapore to form

Malaysia.

As Malaysia Day is a public holiday,

government and business closure are to

be expected. As a result, those operating

in Malaysia should allot for disruptions

to business continuity and allot

additional travel time around

commemoration events on September

16.

Singapore


September 11, 2015

General Elections

During the Singapore’s general election,

a public holiday has been declared by the

government in order for voters to place

their ballots at polling stations, which

could lead to traffic congestion in their

immediate vicinities. Furthermore,

government and business closure will

likely occur. As a result, those operating

in Singapore should allot for disruptions

to business continuity and allot

additional travel time around polling

stations on September 11.

South Korea - Back to portion


September 26-29, 2015 Mid-Autumn Harvest

Festival holiday of

Chuseok is celebrated by

an extended weekend.

The festival is marked by a four day-long

national holiday and as a result

widespread business and government

office closure will occur in South Korea

between the dates of September 26-29.


Pag

e21

Therefore, those operating in South

Korea should allot for business

disruptions according. Furthermore, the

mid-autumn harvest festival is regarded

as one of the most important and

significant holidays in South Korean

society. With that in mind, travelers

should allot for traffic congestion in and

around major urban centers in the days

surrounding the holiday period as

people make cross-country road trips to

be with their families.

Taiwan - Back to portion


September 26-28, 2015

Mid-Autumn Festival

(Zhongqiu Jie)

The Mid-Autumn Festival is one of the

most important traditional holidays in

Taiwan, and is traditionally celebrated

by hanging colorful lanterns and eating

“mooncakes.” As a major national

holiday, national, state, and local

government and nongovernment offices

will likely be closed; some businesses

may have reduced hours. It is advised to

allot for disruptions to business

continuity as well as additional travel

time due to potential traffic congestion.

Vietnam


September 2 National Day -

commemorates the

country’s full

independence from

France in 1945.

The date is traditionally marked by street celebrations, parades, and speeches, particularly in Hanoi’s Ba Dinh Square. assess that main celebratory events are likely to be held in major urban centers and are likely to cause traffic disruptions along the major arteries of the cities. There is also an increased risk for criminal activity, including petty theft.



Pag

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Have additional questions? Contact us at +44 20 3540 0434 or email us at [email protected] DISCLAIMER: Please note that any views and/or opinions and/or assessment and/or recommendations presented in this text are solely those of Max Security. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this text. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. Max Security Solutions accepts no liability for (i) the contents of this text/report being correct, complete or up to date; (ii) consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result and/or on the basis of such contents. Copyright - 2015 Max Security

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