asean and great powers

8/9/2019 ASEAN and Great Powers

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ASEAN and Great Powers:

Lessons and Challenges AheadBy

Kavi [email protected]

17 August, 2010Chulalongkorn University(for classroom used ony)


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Todays lectureFirst Session:

-Panoramic view: Political and Security cooperation in Aseansince its inception in1967

-Asean engages great powers: Asean Regional Forum, newregional architecture, expanded East Asia Summit (outcomeof Hanoi meeting, July 19-23, 2010)

Second Session :

- Asean Security Community (ASC) and other regional securityorganizations

-Key issues: Terrorism, drugs and human trafficking, nuclearproliferation (North Korea, Burma), South China Sea,Maritime Security


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If we dont hang together,we will be hung separately.

S Rajaratnam

Singapore FM, 1967


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Four Asean instruments on

political and security cooperation The Bangkok Declaration: first Asean document,

political commitment (respect for justice, rule of law)to ensure stability and security, free from outside

interferences (but need in a clear term!) The Bali Declaration of Asean Concord: formalized

political cooperation, envisioned a balance in political,economic and functional cooperation (1967-76)

Declaration on the Zone of Peace, Freedom and

Neutrality (ZOPFAN): imbalance prevailed, politicalcooperation slower pace (1976-1997) The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in

Southeast Asia (1976): fail as a conflict resolutionmechanism but useful as diplomatic tools


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Asean Declaration 1967Countries of Southeast Asia share

primary responsibility for strengthening

economic and social stability of theregion and for ensuring their peacefuland progressive national development.

Our security depends on our ability to provideall the goods of life for our people and tobuild societies which are just and fair toall.Malaysian PM Hussein Onn


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ASEAN CONCORD (1976) Expanding political cooperation Adopting principles for regional stability and a

program of action for political cooperation. Holding ASEAN summits, settling intraregional

disputes by peaceful means as soon aspossible

Improving the ASEAN machinery tostrengthen political cooperation

Strengthening solidarity by promoting theharmonization of views (still difficult today!)

Coordinating positions and common action


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Zone of peace, freedom and

neutrality (ZOPFAN) ZOPFAN established 1971 as one of the earliest concepts

of Asean for security

Seek recognition ofZOPFAN and broaden the areas of

cooperation to increase solidarity and closer relationshipbetween Asean and outside world

recognizesthe right of every state, large or small, tolead its national existence free from outside interferencein its internal affairs

ZOPFAN later included concept of national resilience:

nation security through self-help and self-reliance 1983 Indonesia/Malaysia proposed SEANWFZ as part ofZOPFAN

After September 11, 2001, less mentioning ofZOPFAN


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ASEAN Concord II (2003) nurture common values--habit of consultation

to discuss politicalissues

willing to share information on matters ofcommon concern: environmental degradation,maritime security cooperation,

enhance defense cooperation in ASEAN,

develop a set of socio-political values and

principles settle long-standing disputes through peaceful

means (reemphasis of Concord I)


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1976 Treaty of Amity & Cooperation Mutual respect for the independence,

sovereignty, territorial integrity and nationalidentity of all nations;

Right of every state to lead its nationalexistence free from external interference,subversion or coercion;

Noninterference in the internal affairs of one

another; Settlement of disputes by peaceful means; Renunciation of the threat or use of forces


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Update on TAC signatories China, India signed in 2003, Japan in Nov. 2004 South Korea, Mongolia, E Timor, Australia in 2005 France acceded Jan 2007, North Korea in July 2008 US July 2009 Canadas and Turkeys ascension to TAC in 23 July

2010 in Hanoi EU still has to wait being the first international

organization to accede to TAC (Protocol 3 not yetcompletely rafified)

28 signatories in all Future ofTAC with further amendments?


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Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon

Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Signed in Dec 1995 in Bangkok, SEANWFZ

aims: nuclear disarmament, promoteinternational peace and security, preventenvironmental pollution, hazards posed byradio-active waste/other toxic materials.

SEANWFZ treaty came into force in 1997.China first to express to accede but Asean is

reluctant Asean wants all big 5 to sign SEANWFZ at

once (sticky issue is access of aircraft carrierswith nuclear weapons on board)


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Post 1976:security

cooperation The Cambodian conflict was the only Asean

political agenda

Highlighted political differences within Asean(Kuantan principles, called for compromisewith VN on Cambodia)

Reinforcing principle of non-interference Asean vs Indochina over new regional order

Fear of VN as Asians second largest armedforces (need to bring in VN into Asean at

once)


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Dialogue system (plus one) At summit in 1977, Asean expanded ties with

Western countries that had money, technological

know-how, economic/ political clouts EU was first in 1977 followed by Japan as dialogue

partners (Japan-Asean celebrates 25th anniversary in2003)

An instrument for North-South and South-South talksand cooperation

Political, security and economic issues dominatedtalks with dialogue partners (Cambodian conflictsfrom 1975-90, followed by Burma, terrorism andfrom now could be South China Sea)


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Norm-setting in Asean A region order through the TAC i.e. the Declaration

on the Conduct of Parties in South China Sea in 1992

Interstate relations with Dialogue partners expanded

through the post ministerial conferences Indonesia-Malaysia settled Sipadan-Ligitan,

Singapore-Malaysia over Pedro Blanca thru WC

Indonesia and Malaysia help the Philippines on theMoro, Thailand and the Philippines help Indonesia on

Aceh--with Asean/EU peacekeeping forces Thailand and Malaysia might go to the world court to

settle their demarcation line in Sugai Golok

Thai-Cambodia over the Preah Vihear TempledisputesUN or Asean?


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Aseans intervention in Cambodia

-Using its mechanism for conflict resolution,peace making/peace-buildingthe Asean

Way-Resolving their conflicts through commonendeavorsThailand, Singapore

-Facing the reality of weak interstate

relationship within the grouping-Impacts of crisis in Burma, Thailand (April-May 2010) over Asean solidarity


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Asean Regional Forum (ARF) Set up in 1994 for Asean, Asia and Pacific to

foster dialogue/consultations on security issues

To build up confidence, exercise preventive

diplomacy (currently) and conflict resolution Only security-wide forum in the region

Decided by consensus and non-interference

27 members: 10 Asean and 17 non-Asean nations

East Timor was admitted in July, 2005

China has become the driving force of ARF?

Future of ARF: Vision statement

Other competing regional mechanisms: Six PartyTalks, Shanghai Cooperation Organization


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ARF criteria (1994) Commitment to Asean decisions and norms

Has geographic footprint of key ARF

activities (i.e. Northeast and Southeast Asiaand Oceania).

Gradual expansion with moratorium stillinplace

Consultations and consensus needed andapproved by Asean

But in July 2004, Pakistan was admitted asmember, change of geographicalfootprints


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Reinventing ARF Less talk, more action

Give the chair more power

Move to the prevention diplomacy Allow defence officials to participate

Allow non-Asean to host the ARF

Discuss democracy and human rights

Move towards conflict resolutions

The Shangri-la process in Singapore

Asean Defence Ministerial Meeting


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Key Asean security issues Transnational issues: climate change, disastrous

management, pandemics, terrorism, environment,human and arms smugglings, food and energy

security,haze, HIV/aids, anti-narcotics Nuclear proliferation (N Korea and Burma/The Korean

Peninsula) The Burmese political situation South China Sea/Maritime security War on terrorContainer Security Initiative (CSI) and

Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) Mekong sub-regional development with major powers

involvement i.e. China, US, Japan


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South China Sea syndrome Territorial disputes involved Malaysia, Brunei,the

Philippines, Vietnam with China/Taiwan 1992: ASEAN urged parties concerned to exercise

restraint to create atmosphere of trust ASEAN wants to resolve sovereignty/jurisdictional

issues through peaceful means The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the

South China Sea (DOC), signed in Phnom Penh,

December 2002 is currently the mechanism China localized and kept the issue within the region

between China and Asean claimants VN current Asean chair is keen on multilaterizing SCS China wants to work on non-sovereignty issues first


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South China Sea syndrome Asean wants Declaration on the Conduct of

Parties in the South China Sea to be a legal-binding document but China declines

Eight years no progress on SCS, China dealswith Asean claimants only, not as a groupwhich Asean opposes

China looks for new paradigm for their

relations with Asean Set up Asean Development Fund to quell

down angry voices in Asean in 2008 forinfrastructure improvement


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Korean Peninsula crisis Threats to Asean security also Medium range missiles, taepodong, capable

of hitting Asean major cities Six-party talks (SPT) progress at the expense

of ARF All SPT members are in ARF framework but

fail to utilize the forum Institutionalizing SPT in the futureM ARF need major reviews to serve a premier

region-wide security consultative forum


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Korean crisis: asylum seekers Thailand has become one of the largest

transit points for N Korean asylum seekers

Average 4-5 person daily arriving at theThaiborder in Chiangsaen

More than 5,000 North Korean wererepatriated to S Korea in the past years

N Korea moves closer to Asean, joined ARF in

2000 and acceded to TAC 2008 Remained in US terrorist list and is helping

Burma with nuclear technology


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End of first session

15-minute break

Email address:[email protected]


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Asean Security Community Indonesias brainchild

Jakarta moved from away from lowest to

largest common denominators

To moral high-ground, 7 years inertia

Thailand supported the idea, treats Indonesia

as a natural ally Fit in broad strategic environment

Different views and pace

Vientiane action plan


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Indonesias plan To create a security community inAsean 2020 to compliment the Asean

economic and social communities. Allthree could reinforce each other andmake peaceful and stable Asean.

Drafting Asean Charter What is Indonesia is up to the Asean

chair 2011?


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Asean charter Law-binding principles

Promote Asean identity in global politics

In line with UN charter

Eminent Persons Group was set up inDec-2005 in KL during EAS, with 10

members, each from Asean memberAli Alatas, Fidel Ramos, Musa Hitam,

Jayakumar, Kasemsamosorn


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Asean charter and global changesAsean way of doing..

Informal and flexible

Deadline not alwaysclear

Implementationsubjective/non

confrontational Low priority

Inadequate resources

With Change

Formal (Asean Charter)

Clear targets (2015;roadmaps withmilestones)

Rules-based based and

accountability (reportcard to Asean leaders)

Compliance-oriented


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Asean Charter & institutional changes Provide legal framework for Asean

Codifies all Asean norms, rules, and values

High Level Legal Experts Groups: study disputesettlement mechanisms in Asean

SG Asean bigger mandate and role: monitoringprogress and compliance, interpret Asean Charterif/when necessary, interacting and speaking on

behalf of Asean Establishing Asean human right body

2 summits a year, a committee to permanentrepresetnatives


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Asean security community Proposed byIndonesia at July 2003

ASC Plan of Actions explained, not yetapproved

Seeks to change the Asean way of doing things

No change in renunciation of the use offorce

Possible change in non-interference

Regards its security as linked to other

members Their collective destiny bounds by common

norms, history, political experience, andgeographicallocation


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Gist of ASC Political development

Shaping and sharing of norms

Conflict prevention

Conflict resolution

Post-conflict peace-building


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Political development in ASC Promote understanding of political systems of

members through people to people contactsand track 2 (non-official) activities

Promote human rights and obligations Lay the groundwork to establish an

institutional framework for free flow ofinformation among Asean

Strengthening rule of law, judiciary systemsand legal infrastructure and good governancein public and private sectors


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Asean human rights body-AHRB High Level Panel established July 2008 to draftTOR

for AHRB First draft July 2009 AHRB then was transformed in Oct 2009 as Asean

Intergovernmental Commission for Human Rights(AICHR)

TOR of AHRBnot less than international norms andstandard

Promote HR first, protect HR later (easy said thandone) Declaration of Asean Human Rights (to be completed

in 2011 for the summits approval in Jakarta) Human Rights Resource Centre for Asean to be

launched in later in 2010 in Jakarta


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Shaping and sharing norms Building a just, democratic and

harmonious environment with Asean

charter

Asean mutual legal assistanceagreement

Asean Convention on Counter Terrorism

Asean Extradition Treaty


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Conflict prevention/resolution Working toward greater transparency

Asean defense ministerial meeting Promoting maritime security cooperation

Strengthening cooperation to address

threats and challenges posed byseparatism

Innovative ways to solve conflicts


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Post conflict peace building Secure peace and prevent a resurgence

of conflicts through humanitarian

assistance,

human resource development,education, reconstruction in affected

areas Promote culture of peace


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Asean ongoing fear Iraq war: failure of regional org to develop

adequate political mechanisms on interstate

relations--tempt outside intervention Asean needs a rule-based order to handle

problems effectively to preempt outsideinterference

Conflicts among members (Thai-Cambodia) Asean needs the security community to

prevent war


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New regional architecture Various existing Asean frameworks: Asean

Regional Forum, Asean Plus Three, Asia

Europe Meeting, East Asia Summit, AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation

Asean worries about its own rule: Aseancentrality (must earn it?)

Proposals by Australia (July 2008) and Japan(August 2009) were aborted


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Asean plus three -1990: PM Mahathirs East Asian Economic Group

-1995: PM Goh met leaders of China, Japan, S Koreain BKK

-Asian economic crisis 1997

-Asians can help Asians better

-Growing regional integration outside Asean

-Acted as a fulcrum for China, Japan, S. Korea to

meet and cooperate (first time in 1999, Manila Summit)--now on their

own

-1998 Hanoi: agreed to APT summit annually

-48 committees including energy and food security


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APT: future to come

-Maintaining the same format

-strengthening/broadening cooperationincluding security matters

-a pillar for the East Asian community

-holding APT summit outside Asean


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EAS: Future to come -Remaining a leaders-led forum

-EAS will remain open and inclusive

-engaging major powers including US, Russia

-adopting selective moratorium

-a new playground for great powers

-Reviewing ofTreaty of Amity andCooperation (1976)

-holding EAS outside Asean


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East Asia Summit(EAS)

-In Singapore 2000, Malaysia proposed to change thename of APT to EAS

-In Brunei 2001, East Asia Vision Group suggested:

APT to evolve to an East Asian Summit -In 2002 Phnom Penh Summit, Singapore suggested

the first EAS should be held in 10 years and thesecond one in 5-10 years.

-In Vientiane 2004, Asean leaders decided APT and

EAS were two separate paths Indonesia backed Australia, NZ; Singapore opted for

India as EAS members -Laos was first to propose to host the first EAS -First EAS in KL, used East Asian Summit but then

changed to East Asia Summit


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New ideas at Hanoi summit Asean plus eight: Asean plus India, NZ,

Australia, Japan, China, Korea with the US

and Russia (Singapores proposal) Expanded EAS: East Asia Summit with two

dialogue partners: the US and Russia(Indonesias proposal)

US and Russia could attend Octobers Aseansummit as observers with their FMs


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Asean and lessons learned Asean has to speak with one voice on global

issues (working on it)

Asean has to be more broad-based Asean has to engage with major powers with

international norms and standard

Asean has to be open, transparent,

democratic (Indonesias model) Asean must incorporate civil society at all

levels

asean and great powers

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