Transit-Related Development

New and Emerging Research

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP, Metropolitan Research Center, University

of Utahwith support from

National Center for Transportation & Communities

Reno, NV December 6, 2013

Outline

Residential values with respect to light rail station distance TRAX case study

Job and population change with respect to street car distance Portland streetcar case study

Bus Rapid Transit and employment growth Land County, Oregon

Case Study Forthcoming BRT research

Share of Change in Jobs With Respect to Distance from BRT

Stations, 2004 and 2010

Source: Nelson et al., Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

NAICS Code NAICS Sector

Jobs Within 0.25 Mile

of EmX Station,

2004

Jobs Within 0.25 Mile

of EmX Station,

2010

Change in Jobs,

2004-2010

Jobs Between 0.25 and

0.50 Mile of EmX Station,

2004

Jobs Between 0.25 and

0.50 Mile of EmX Station,

2010

Change in Jobs,

2004-2010

Jobs Balance

of Metro Area, 2004

Jobs Balance of Metro

Area, 2010

Change in Jobs,

2004-2010

22 Utilities 475 513 8% 91 136 49% 151 183 21%

23 Construction 643 520 -19% 400 314 -22% 5,696 4,696 -18%

31-33 Manufacturing 813 465 -43% 293 174 -41% 18,690 11,685 -37%

42 Wholesale 427 269 -37% 584 499 -15% 5,313 4,742 -11%

44-45 Retail 1,769 1,844 4% 1,039 1,073 3% 14,551 14,021 -4%

48-49 Transportation 484 517 7% 52 135 160% 2,608 2,260 -13%

51 Information 1,133 1,557 37% 450 389 -14% 1,550 1,360 -12%

52 Finance 1,285 1,447 13% 422 524 24% 2,105 1,766 -16%

53 Real Estate 442 488 10% 177 182 3% 1,947 1,516 -22%

54 Professional 2,366 2,221 -6% 861 811 -6% 2,751 2,597 -6%

55 Management 291 633 118% 98 75 -23% 1,631 1,733 6%

56 Administrative 1,320 2,042 55% 1,514 1,031 -32% 5,456 4,441 -19%

61 Education 1,015 1,249 23% 258 303 17% 13,983 15,800 13%

62 Health Care 7,751 9,095 17% 920 1,395 52% 9,363 12,102 29%

71 Arts, Ent., Rec. 826 707 -14% 43 99 130% 1,421 1,526 7%

72 Lodging, Food 2,615 2,919 12% 1,113 1,099 -1% 7,445 8,341 12%

81 Other Services 621 717 15% 269 294 9% 4,009 3,926 -2%

92 Public Admin 3,461 3,379 -2% 488 552 13% 1,361 2,084 53%

 Total 27,737 30,582 10% 9,072 9,085 0% 100,031 94,779 -5%

ReviewBRT outcomes so soon are a surprise (for me).Success attributable to “planning for success” by locating stations at current/planned high-demand locations.It is one design among many flavors will

results hold up under different designs?Will lagging sectors rebound at BR stations? Will results hold for ½ mile rail-transit areas?Are there any induced jobs or just resorting?Will people also follow BRT or is it just jobs?More research needed but outcomes appear

promising.

Published

Arthur C. Nelson et al. (2013), Bus Rapid Transit and Economic Development: Case Study of the Eugene-Springfield BRT System. Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 16, No. 3: 41-57

Presentation and Target Journal

To be presented to Transportation Research Board, 2014

Arthur C. Nelson et al. targeted for Journal of Public Transportation.

Apartment Values with respect to Light Rail Station Proximity

In theory higher density housing should be more valuable the closer it is to transit stations.

Only one study evaluates price differences per square foot in apartment values within ½ mile of heavy-rail stations compared to farther away.

No study evaluates the value gradient with respect to transit station distance.

STU

DY A

REA

: S

ALT

LAK

E C

OU

NTY, U

TAH

17 municipalities; 6 unincorporated communities

Population: 1.03 million (2010 Census)

4 Light Rail Lines

41 Stations

35 miles of track

Image: saltlakebusads.com

Hedonic Model

Structural Characteristics

•Bldg. Area•Units•Property Tax Rate

Location Attributes

•CBD•Freeway Exit•Schools•Shopping

Neighborhood Attributes

• Income•Household Size

•Race/Ethnicity

Distance to TRAX

•Nearest station in ¼ mile bands to 1-1/2 mile

Value per square foot of Rental Space

Distance to TRAX: Value Premiums (per ft2)

Mean value: $87/ft2

7.276

*

Up to ¼ mile

3.628

*

¼ to ½ mile

4.739

*½ to ¾ mile

3.621

*

¾ to 1 mile

3.647

*

1 to 1¼ mile

1.678

1¼ to 1½ mile

referenc

e

Over 1½ mile*Significant p-value

Presentation and Publication

Presented to Transportation Research Board, 2013.

Susan J. Petheram, Arthur C. Nelson, et al. (2013). Using the Real Estate Market to Establish Light Rail Station Catchment Areas: Case Study of Attached Residential Property Values in Salt Lake County with respect to Light Rail Station Distance. Transportation Research Record

New Research on Single-Family Detached Premiums

New Research on Attached Owner Residential Premiums

LINEAR MODEL Attached SFB Sig.

within .25 mile of LR 20.62888 0.000.25 to .5 mile to LR 12.80735 0.001.5 to .75 mile to LR 7.71434 0.001.75 to 1 mile to LR 9.86059 0.0001 to 1.25 mile to LR 1.08688 0.590

Model R Squared: 0.563

Presentation and Publication

To be presented to Transportation Research Board, 2014

Susan J. Petheram, Arthur C. Nelson, et al., targeted to Transportation Research A.

National Study of BRT Development Outcomes

Ranked #1 for funding by NITC National study of all 19 BRT systems in place in 2011. Quasi-experimental compare-and-contrast research design to

compare jobs, population and households, and housing units before and after BRT implementation relative to a control corridor and within the metropolitan context.

Spatial regression analysis to evaluate the relationship between BRT and employment controlling for socioeconomic, location and other factors.

Hedonic analysis to compare market differences in terms of nonresidential and apartment residential rents and vacancy rates with respect to BRT station proximity, and whether there are variations with respect to BRT flavor. 

Jobs-housing balance analysis will tie together the residential and non-residential analyses.

2010 census blocks within one-eighth mile buffers, out to two miles.

Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, CoStar data