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Driving Reliability Improvement through

Culture Change

Driving Reliability Improvement through

Culture Change

By:By:Robert J. KuperRobert J. Kuper

Chief, Reliability Management OfficeChief, Reliability Management OfficeReliability Engineering Competency DeanReliability Engineering Competency Dean

RDECOMRDECOM--ARDEC, QE&SAARDEC, QE&SA

Presented to:Reliability Challenges Panel Discussion

DOD Maintenance Symposium25 October 2005

Armament Research, Development & Engineering Center

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Purpose of Presentation

• Provide a Brief Overview of the Culture Change Roadmap in the Context of the Reliability Challenges which drive the need for such broad-based change– Reliability Challenges– Background – How it Started– Technological & Programmatic focus areas– Activities with DOD, Industry, Professional Societies,

Academia etc.. • Achieving Reliability, Maintainability &

Supportability Cultural Change.

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Why Culture Change for the Army?• Systemic RMS Issues/Problems: 2 Decades.• Core competency decline/deficiencies

– Army agencies– Industry– Academia

• Army Relevancy– Heavy, slow, unreliable, huge/costly logistics tail

• Transformation– Solve the logistics problems – reduce force structure– Require very High RMS characteristics: 4-12 times

current state– Highly maintainable:

• Mean Time To Repair (MTTR): Everything < 30 minutes

• 80% by Crew

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• Cost• Performance• Cycle Time• Supportability

Impacts

WE accept failure, because we have the Log Tail to address itReliability has not been a Key Performance Parameter (KPP); Must be!Lack Systems Engineering discipline: SRAM, T&E, M&S, CostRAM disassociated from Design Decision processesStovepipes – “ilities”Not Focused on Failure Mechanisms, Physics of FailureAging, degradation, not addressed with proper science and engineering.Acquisition Reform played a roleTools and Best Practices – not uniformed addressed Reference book prediction vs physics-based methods

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Lack of RMS Performance = High Operations & Maintenance Costs

High Life Cycle Costs

Large Logistics Tail

Inability to:

Invest in Technologies required

Modernize the Total Forces

Heavy Forces too cumbersome for Rapid DeploymentLight Forces lacked the Lethality, Survivability and Sustained Combat Power

Army Transformation Challenges Achievable if we change the RMS/SE cultureIMPLICATIONS: Delayed Army Modernization/Transformation for decades

The DOD Death Spiral

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

U H -6 0A H -6 4M

1A 1 /A 2C H -4 7 D0 H -5 8 DM

2 /M3

P A T R IO T

Wholesale $ Demands Per Year$M

source: JUNE 02 STRAT

Must Understand how Reliability impactsLife Cycle Costs – “LC Cost Drivers”

Must Understand how Reliability impactsMust Understand how Reliability impactsLife Cycle Costs Life Cycle Costs –– ““LC Cost DriversLC Cost Drivers””

Significant O&S CostReduction Potential

Over Life Cycle= $B’s

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Maint Labor

Repair Material

Init Train

Other

Spares

Misc

Personnel

POL

Documents

Design

Installation Checkout

Fabrication

Reliability Directly Impacts Over 58% of Life Cycle Costs

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Log

Supp

ort C

osts

Acq

uisi

tion

Cos

ts

Ope

ratio

ns

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Data Source: DA ILS Symposium, 5-7 Nov 97, Life Cycle and O&S Costsby J. Emahiser/ADUSD(L)

Excellence in AnalysisExcellence in Analysis

AMSAA AMSAA

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Army Systems Engineering RMS ProblemsBottom-line:

• Lack Adequacy of Early “Designed-in RAM-Supportability”

• Lack Physics-based approaches • Lack of an Integrated life cycle RMS focus.

– Lack RMS integration with Tech Maturation Cycle– Lack well integrated Toolsets in a Networked R&D Collaborative

Environment– Lack well integrated RMS, M&S, T&E strategies

• “Systems Engineering”• Lack appropriate R&D ties/Feedback Mechanisms to/from

fielded or deployed fleet/stockpile– Lack RMS Consistency across programs

• Competency deficiencies….cultural deficiencies– Lack integrated RMS data collection & decision-analyses

frameworks……….etc……“Requires a Major Cultural Change”

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Reliability Challenges & Roadmap to Cultural Change

• Challenges:– The Biggest Challenge will be the ability to change the SE/RE Culture– Assuring:

• Significant Reliability Improvements across all programs that drives reduced cost, schedule and performance

• Reduces Logistics Tail and Operations and Support & Life Cycle Costs• Proper definition and achievement of RMS reqts & KPP’s to drive investment• A workable Systems Engineering process that integrates the RE/RMS processes, tools and

best practices• RMS/RE is an integral part of the life cycle decision-making processes – assures investment

& achivement

• Our Roadmap– New Life cycle model – Process-focused, CMM measurement & improvement– State of the Art Tools & Best Practices– Advanced Technology investment– Physics-based approaches– State of the art risk management – through quantitative uncertainty and variability

measurement and control. Probabilistic Technology and Methods for all decisions in S&T, engineering and business management.

– RE/RMS/SE Core Competency/Knowledge Enhancement • Advanced Degree Programs- Naval Post Graduate School MS & PhD in Reliability• Intensive training programs• Certification

– Industry & Academia Partnerships - Technology and practices

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Strategic Focus AreasAnalytics

Tools, Methods, Best PracticesCompetency Enhancement

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Strategic Plan – Top Priorities• Change the RMS Culture – Change the People, Processes,

Products & Services (Gov’t/Industry…Raytheon, UDLP, GD, Lock-Mart, IBM, …etc…)

• Core Competency Enhancement Program• World Class Tools, Best Practices & Methods • Target & Invest in Big Payoff Technologies

– Probabilistic Technology/Methods– Diagnostic/Prognostic technology

• New LC Model including RMS focus on Technology and Systems Engineering

• Apply and Breed the Best RMS Technology and Engineering Practices and Solutions

• Fill the Voids in “Total Systems RMS”: – Network Reliability, System of Systems, Human Reliability,

Integrated HW/SW Reliability

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Strategic Plan – Top Priorities• Physics of Failure – Predictive Engineering Focus• Focus on LC Cost Consequences of all RMS Enhancements• RMS Program Visibility: “Eliminate Stovepipes”

– Early RMS Intervention – Use of Advanced M&S for Reqts. & concepts– Contracting for RMS: Business Case, “Progressive Assurance”– RMS Engineering as the key linkage in Systems Engineering Processes– RMS drives decision making: LC Trade-offs

• Continuous Reliability (RMS) Growth & Trade-off analyses• Totally Integrated Life Cycle System: Tools, Best Practices & Processes

– Vision now being Developed & Deploying: Develop Totally Integrated RMS Physics-based Design and Analytical tool set with an Overarching Probabilistic analysis capability to manage uncertainty in all aspects of program decision-making.

– Technology maturation, design, development, production and life cycle support. Advanced Technology solutions.

– Fixes the Systems Engineering/RMS deficiencies– Fixes Programmatic deficiencies. – Yields reduced cycle time, Higher RMS early in design, reduced T&E, better

M&S and data utility; Reduced Log tail, O&S costs and LC CostLeveraging $0.5B, invests $1-2M ROIs in $B’s/year

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Change Agent for National SE/RMS Culture ChangeLead By SAE-Integrated Activity on a National Scale

• ARDEC RMS Center of Excellence• Academia – ABET Council

– Harvard/MIT/Princeton/Berkley/UC, Irvine• Dialogue Across the Professional Societies

– SAE G-11 – Probabilistic Methods– NDIA, ASQ– AIAA, SOLE……etc– RMS Partnership

• Industry– DoD Defense & Commercial Industrial Bases– RMS Industry

• National Resources– NASA, National Labs/Los Alamos Partnership, National Institutes

• Education, Training & Certification– Redesign University Curriculum, RMS Degree Emphasis– Adv’d Degree Programs, Develop Short courses, Workshops– Certification Programs

• Advanced Technology, Engineering Solution’s & Tool Sets, Best Practices• Better Integration of Tools & Databases• Knowledge Management• Leveraging Integrated Centers of Excellence

– National Labs, NASA, RMS Industry, RAC, Academia

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SummaryIndustry, Academia, Professional Societies/SAE etc… Buy-in for Culture Change is significant.Without significant changes, Objective Force equipment will likely experience the same level of low reliability with the consequences of high labor-intense logistics and high LC Cost as with current systems.Reliability must be designed in upfront and worked thru the Life Cycle.Immediate Behavioral Changes must beget longer term Cultural Changes.We need to focus SE-based, Reliability Engineering focused cultural change within the servicesRMS KPPs are essential, Incentives a Must, Business Case analyses must drive all RMS improvements with LC & Total Ownership Cost being the decision drivers.Discipline in the form of Lean, 6 Sigma, and Capability Maturity Model (CMM) measurement and continuous improvement is a highly effective framework for this culture change process. All deployment activity within our Army community applies Lean Six SigmaLocal deployment in ‘05/’06 provides the organization, technical & business tools, LC processes, best practices and continuous improvement framework to accomplish this Cultural Change at ARDEC. With SAE Collaboration we will take this to National Levels using Senior BoD.Industry Partnerships leading to the Best integrated technology & design Capability in the world Return on Investment (ROI) Analyses shows RMS Culture Change can save $Billions annually

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Probabilistic Technology interfaces with Reliability Analytics

Probabilistic Technology interfaces with Probabilistic Technology interfaces with Reliability AnalyticsReliability Analytics

Developing & Validating RMS RequirementsM&S, Tradeoff Analyses, Bayesian

Contracting for RAM RMS Business Case – “Progressive Assurance”RMS Incentives

Preliminary Design Concepts & EvaluationPhysics-based Probabilistic Design ToolsProbabilistic applications to business and Cost

Designing-in RMS – Physics-based ToolsDesign Loads & Stresses

OperationalSystem Response

Predictive EngineeringPhysics of FailureAccelerated TestingAging StudiesPredictive Models/AlgorithmsDiagnostics/Prognostics

Design, Production RMS/Cost OptimizationReliability GrowthField Data Feedback – Maintenance, logistics etc…

Life Cycle IntegratedDesign

and RMS Analytical Tools

Probabilistic Technology/Methods

Applications

Traditional RMS ToolsPredictive EngineeringProbabilistic Methods

LC Cost Models

ProbabilisticTechnology

Has demonstrated the potential to save $Billions

per year

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The Importance of Developing and Applying Advanced Tools

Enhancing RMS Character Inherent in TechnologyProbabilistic M&S and Bayesian ApproachesMulti-physics, multi-dynamics.Systems Engineering: Physics-based tools Physics of Performance/Failure are the focus of designing in RMSRisk Management: Quantitative Risk AnalysesKnowledge Management: Knowledge-based Decision MakingRMS Tools based on Physics of Performance and FailurePost Deployment: Readiness Assessment, Support to Product &

Process Improvements, Technology Insertion, Upgrades etc.

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Advanced Technologist’s Toolkit Enabler for Enhancing Inherent RMS value of new technology

• Required Shift from ACE (Collaborative Environment) to a System of Totally, Seamlessly Integrated Tools in a State of the Art System for Collaboration

• RMS Engineering Cultural Change: From RMS traditional tools to Physics-based Design and Analytical tools as the Basis for Tech & Design Maturation.

• Focus on Failure Mechanisms, how technology fails to meet its performance will quantitatively derive RMS character

• Advanced tools include (not limited to):– Totally seamless Toolset integration in Collaborative Environment:

• M&S automatically updated when Models, data, simulations or analyses are entered into relational data bases

– Physics-based Design Tools• Finite Element Analysis (FEA)• Probabilistic Analyses• Computational Fluid Dynamics• Electronics Analysis• Fatigue Analysis• Multi-body dynamics

– Testing Tool Sets• Modal, Shock, Vibration, Thermal, Humidity Response Testing• Accelerated Life/Aging testing

– Reliability Analysis Tools:• Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA)• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD)• Etc…….

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Technology Development ToolsTechnology Development Tools

COST

STRUCTURAL

SYS ENGS&T MGR

RELIABILITYRMS

PMPROPULSIONAERO

GUIDANCE&CONTROL

LETHALITY

CEP---------

FiniteElementAnalysis---

~ Totally Integrated Tools in Collaborative Environment~ Physics-based design tools:

Probabilistic TechnologyFinite Element AnalysisComputational Fluid DynamicsElectronics AnalysisMulti-body DynamicsModal, Shock, vibration,

thermal ResponsesAccelerated Life/Aging

~ Business/Life cycle cost tools~ Reliability Analytics:

FMECA/FTA etc....

Cd------

Pk------

<8K<15K---

The New Paradigm: The RMS tools

Exist in all the buttons ;As design tools

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From (ACE) Collaborative Environmentto Total, Seamless Integration of Advanced State

of the Art Toolsets

Human/process/time dependent collaboration forTechnology/Design Maturity and iterations

Next Slide

Total, Seamless, IntegrationOf Advanced State of the ArtToolsets for Technologists

Profound ability to influence inherent RMS character of technologyProvides continuity from S&T to SDD transitionsTechnology Design/ Maturity Cycle time 10 to 1,000 times fasterState of the Art Tools provide technology M&S and analytical capabilities

never before available. “PROFOUND LEAP AHEAD”in Technology and Design Maturation cycles

From ACE today

TO: As early as tomorrow

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Subcontractor

Or Government

Engineering

System ModelSystem Model

PrimeContractor

InternetInternet

Subcontractoror

Government

33 Sub-Model 322

Sub-Model 2

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Sub-Model 1

FIPER: A Framework for Integrated Tools & Collaboration: Only capability in the world to do thisdo this

Coworkers, vendors, and partners can work interactively on the same or uniquely integrated models, control different aspects ofexecution of the model, and review results instantaneously even for 20+ models etc. Technology and Design Maturity iterations completed 10 to 1,000 times faster than ACE => HUGE ROIs in Tech Maturation, SDD and Life Cycle=Performance, Cost and

Schedule Improvements

Cost Model

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Enabling New Frontiers in Technology, Design and Quantitative Risk Analyses

Designing-in Safety, Reliability, Maintainability & SupportabilityTotally Integrated, Seamless and Collaborative

Systems EngineeringA Best-of-Breed Partnership

for a Best-of-Breed Solution

Integrated Technology Maturation/DesignAnd Risk Analyses

Early RMS in6.2 thru Systems

Engineering

ID Failure Mechanisms, Reduced Cost & Cycle TimeMeet and Optimize All Reqts

22A Best-of-Breed Partnershipfor a Best-of-Breed Solution!

Advanced tools for Classical Reliability , Safety & Risk Analyses

Advanced tools for Physics-Based Design & Analyses

Advanced tools for Probabilistic DesignAnalyses