are you ready for 2013? (619 417-1817 [email protected] alan nevin
TRANSCRIPT
ARE YOU READY FOR 2013?
The London Group Realty AdvisorsConsultants to the Development, Legal, Investment and Estate Planning Industries
(619 417-1817 [email protected]
Alan Nevin
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950
1450
1950
2450
NV
AZ
UT
FL
WA
OR
GA
TX
CA
VA
NM
CO
MD
NC
AV
ER
AG
E
NY
MA
SC
NJ
TN
MN
CT
AL
WI
KY
MO
AR IL NE
KS
PA IN OK IA
MS
WV
OH MI
LA
ECONOMIC STRENGTHHIGHER INDICATOR VALUE = STRONGER ECONOMIC STRENGTH FACTORS
Cyclical Downturn Systemic Downturn
Economic Strength Ratings by StateTHE FUTURE OF AMERICA
Top Ten % change Bottom Ten % change
Arizona 20.9% Illinois -2.2%Nevada 14.2% Connecticut -0.5%California 11.1% New Jersey -0.5%Utah 10.1% Pennsylvania -0.1%Florida 7.9% Wisconsin -0.1%South Carolina 7.8% Iowa -0.6%Colorado 7.7% Kentucky 1.3%New York 6.9% Oklahoma 1.5%District of Columbia 6.6% Arkansas 1.6%Oregon 6.4% Missouri 1.6%
Average 10.0% Average 0.2%
source: CoreLogic
Median Home Sales Price Change by State (1)Top 10 Highest and Lowest
2011-2012
(1) states with more than 2.0 million population and median home prices over $100,000
Top 15 States Bottom 15 States0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
76%
47 million
3%
Population Change – U.S. – 1980-2010 – 62 Million People
Demography is our Destiny
United States This past year, 1.15 million households were formed in
the United States. 6.5 million persons doubled up.
San Diego County: 2/3s of all households had no one living at home under
age 18 25% of all households were occupied by one person Only 1 in 7 households has a mom, dad and two kids.
NEVIN ECONOMICS 101:
Basic Jobs, by Number
Military (in uniform) 110,000 Tourism 150,000 Manufacturing 90,000 Import/Export 25,000 High Tech 94,000
Universities 35,000 Federal and State 60,000
Government (civilian)
Total 564,000
Rank Metropolitan AreaPercent Change
1 San Francisco 3.5%2 Houston 3.2%3 Denver 3.0%
4 San Diego 2.9%4 Phoenix 2.9%4 Seattle 2.9%7 Cincinnati 2.8%8 Riverside 2.3%9 Portland 2.2%9 Boston 2.2%
United States 1.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsLondon Group Realty Advisors 9.2012
Large Metropolitan Area Job GrowthPercent Change in No. of Jobs
July 2011 - July 2012
3470034943
3518635431
3567435916
3616136404
3664736892
3713537377
3762237865
3810838353
3859638838
3908339326
3956939814
4005740299
4054440787
410300
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
San Diego CountyMonthly Building Permits Issued
1995 - July 2012
Multi-Family
Single-Family
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Notices of Default Down 50% since last year
(879 out of an inventory of 730,000 homes)
SAN DIEGO COUNTY FORECLOSURESForeclosures by Loan Origination Date
Q1 '04
Q2 '04
Q3 '04
Q4 '04
Q1 '05
Q2 '05
Q3 '05
Q4 '05
Q1 '06
Q2 '06
Q3 '06
Q4 '06
Q1 '07
Q2 '07
Q3 '07
Q4 '07
Q1 '08
Q2 '08
Q3 '08
Q4 '08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200Notice of DefaultNotice of Sale
The pig is almost through the snakeSource: The London Group Realty Advisors, Foreclosureradar.com
Investor Owned Homes – San Diego County
% owned by Investors
Single Family Detached 21% Condominiums 43%
Source: County Assessor
A definite shortage of inventory
Months
Normal 6.0
Non-Distressed 2.0Short Sales 0.4Bank REO 0.6
Months of InventoryResale Housing Market
San Diego CountyAs of Year End 2012
Source: The London Group Realty Advisors, San Diego Association of Realtors
Year 2006 2013
Square Feet 3,000 4,000 Price 900,000$ 900,000$
Down Payment 20% 20%Mortgage 720,000$ 720,000$
Interest Rate (30-yr. fixed) 6.5% 3.5%Monthly Payment 4,550$ 3,233$
Wonderful Homebuying Opportunities in 2013Get 1/3 more house with 1/3 less monthly payments
Category San Diego Ranking
Buy RecommendationsApartments 6
Office 8Retail 6Hotel 6
Industrial 10
For-Sale Homebuilding Prospects 13
2013 Emerging Trends in Real Estate: Economic RankingsUrban Land Institute
Source: Urban Land Institute
Nevin’s 2013 Economic Forecast
“ I can calculate the movement of stars but not the madness of man.
Isaac Newton
San Diego County- 2013 Economic Forecast
• Population growth will continue at 25,000+• New jobs will total more than 20,000 • New home sales will improve slightly: 2,500-3,000
units (1/3rd of normal)• Few new lots will be manufactured• The resale housing market will at least match 2012 with
more than 35,000 homes and condominiums sold• Foreclosures and short sales will diminish substantially• Interest rates will remain low• Home prices will increase 8-10%, same as in 2012
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The London Group Realty Advisors
Alan N. Nevin(619) 417-1817
We help people make prudent decisions on real estate matters, big and small.