7/31/2015 AreBangladesh'sCompetingPartiesReadytoNegotiate?|Stratfor

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Are Bangladesh's Competing Parties Ready toNegotiate?Analysis JULY30,2015|09:00GMT Print TextSize

SummaryInanattempttofightrisingIslamistextremisminBangladesh,DhakaannouncedJuly28thearrestsofseveral

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BangladeshiprotestersshoutslogansduringademonstrationoutsidetheBangladeshNationalistPartyofficeinDhaka,Feb.16.(MUNIRUZZAMAN/AFPPhoto)

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membersofoutlawedjihadistoutfitJamaatalMujahideen.ViolencehasplaguedtheSouthAsiancountrysincecontestednationalelectionsinJanuary2014theoppositionBangladeshNationalistParty,knownastheBNP,leadsacoalitionofcenterrightandIslamistpartiesagainsttherulingAwamiLeague.ButinrecentmonthsarashofIslamistattacksagainstgovernmentinstitutions,securityforces,secularbloggersandotherciviliansofttargetshasledthemainstreamoppositiontotrytodistanceitselffromviolentextremists.AstheBNP'sproteststrategylosesmomentum,leaderBegumKhaledaZiahasindicatedthatpartsoftheoppositionmightbewillingtodropsomeoftheirdemandssuchasimposinganeutralcaretakergovernmenttooverseeelections.TheAwamiLeagueandtheoppositionwilllikelyenterdifficultnegotiationsinthecomingweeksandmonths,butviolenceissettocontinue,especiallyastheAwamiLeaguegrappleswiththeburgeoningthreatofIslamistextremism.

AnalysisLargescalestrikesandprotests,knownlocallyashartals,haveslowedastherulingAwamiLeaguehassteppedupitscounterterrorismmeasures,deflectingsomeWesterncriticismsleviedagainstDhakafollowing2014'snationalelections.RegionalsupportfromIndia,atraditionalbackeroftheAwamiLeague,hasalsoextendedbeyondarecentborderagreementtoincludediscussionsonmanufacturinginvestmentandcounterterrorismcooperation.GarmentexportsacriticalcomponentoftheBangladeshieconomyfalteredearlierthisyearasBNPledstrikesshutdownlargesectionsofthecountry'stransportationinfrastructurenetworks.Yet,inthefaceofaresoluteAwamiLeague,theopposition'sprotestmovementhasloststeam,especiallyinlightoftheupsurgeinIslamistviolence.Theresulthasbeenastrongreturnongarmentsectorexports,aswellasrisingforeigninvestmentinterestinBangladeshincludingChineseJapanesecompetitionoverportinfrastructure,manufacturing,powergenerationandroadandrailinitiatives.

SpeakingonJuly26,BNPleaderZiaannouncedthatthepartywasdroppingitsdemandsforacaretakergovernmenttooverseefreshelectionsthoughtheBNPstillwantsnewelectionsoverall.TheBNPisunabletoapplyenougheconomicorsocialpressurethroughitsproteststoweakentherulingparty,whichreliesonthetacitbackingofthemilitary,securityforces,andparamilitarygroupstoimposeorderandbreakupstrikes.Zia'sconcessionisexpectedtoresultinaquiet,behindthescenesrestartoftalks.Earlierattemptsstalledinmid2014,whentheBNPintensifieditssocialunrestmovementagainstwhatitdescribedasanintransigentAwamiLeague.TherulingpartywasalsofacingU.S.,BritishandEUcondemnationofitselectoralpractices.TheBNPhadhopedthatinternationalpressure,includingrescindingsomeofthebeneficialtariffarrangementsforBangladeshigarmentexports,wouldforceBangladeshiPrimeMinisterSheikhHasinatocapitulate.

Despitetheinternationalcommunity'sfocusontheAwamiLeague'seffortstomaintainsecurityaswellasitsprobusinesspolicies,thegovernment'spositionshowsfewsignsofweakening.TheBNPanditscoalitionpartnershavecontinuedtheirboycottofelectionssincethe2014parliamentaryelections,andtheyarenowlargelyexcludedfromnationalandlocalpositions.AsBangladeshworkstoattractmoreinvestmentintothecountry,theBNPmustwaityearsbeforeitcanmeaningfullyreinsertitselfintothenationalpoliticalsystem.Aswellasbeingpoliticallyviable,thereareassociatedeconomicbenefits,suchasoversightofgovernmentcontracts,aidpackagesandgraft

Bangladeshi Unrest and the TextilesIndustry

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BangladeshconsistentlyrankshigherthanallotherSouthAsiancountriesinglobalcorruptionindices.

WhiletheBNP'sprimarytactichasbeentoopposetheAwamiLeaguethroughstrikesandprotests,intensifyingIslamistviolencecouldforceZiaandotherBNPleaderstojointhegovernment'ssecurityinitiatives.TheAwamiLeague'scampaigntoarrestandsentenceJamaateIslami'sleadersintheleadupto2014electionsresultedinthecountry'slargestIslamistpoliticalparty,andlongtimeallyoftheBNP,leveragingitsnationalgrassrootsnetworks,addingmuchneededmuscletotheBNPprotests.Butongoingviolenceincludingseveralhighprofilekillings,attacksagainstsecularbloggersandfirebombattacksagainstbusesandtrainshasdamagedtheBNP'sstandingwiththeinternationalcommunity.

SinceJune,theBNPhasbeguntodistanceitselffromitstraditionalIslamistpartner.ProtestscalledbyJamaateIslamiopposingthesentencingofitsleadershaveseenlittlepublicsupportfromBNPleadersandtheirassociatedcadres.TheBNPcouldwellbereadytouncoupleitselffromJamaateIslamiandsupporttheAwamiLeague'seffortstocontainextremism.Ifthisisthecase,theBNPmayfinditslegitimateattemptstoreenterthepoliticalsystemmorefruitfulthanbycontinuingtopursueacampaignofsocialdisruptionthatrisksgivingcovertoextremistactivities.

TheAwamiLeaguehasbeenloathtoconcedeanyoftheBNP'sdemands,butenteringnegotiationswiththeoppositionwillbewelcomedbytheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUniontheprimarydestinationsofBangladeshiexports.ButtheAwamiLeaguewillbeeagertobroadcastitspursuitofasolutiontothecountry'spoliticalimpasse,andtheBNP'sconcessiononacaretakergovernmentisasignificantone.Reductionsinpublicunrestandviolencewillalsoassuagethedoubtsofwouldbeinvestors,highlightingakeyconcernofHasina'seconomicagenda.Negotiationswillcontinuetobedifficult,though,andBangladesh'shartalsandpoliticalviolencewillcontinuetotaintanynegotiationprocess.

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