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Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent Approaches to Management in Light of Scientific Uncertainty

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Page 1: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Arctic Oil and Fisheries

Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz

March 29, 2013

Divergent Approaches to Management in Light of Scientific Uncertainty

Page 2: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

LAW

PUBLIC

SCIENCE

• Habitat Protection • Food Web Protection • Sustainable Fishing

• Pollution Reduction and Prevention • Controlled Development

Sustainable Living

Ecosystem-Based Management Nicolai Konyukhov

Page 3: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent
Page 4: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Ice is a supporter of life. It brings the sea animals from the north into our area and in the fall it also becomes an extension of our land. When it freezes along the shore, we go out on the ice to fish, to hunt marine mammals, and to travel… When it starts disintegrating and disappearing faster, it affects our lives dramatically.

-- Caleb Pungowiyi

Page 5: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Growing Industrial Activity in the Arctic

Ocean

Page 6: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Climate Change

2 0 1 3

2 0 5 3

The Planning Challenge

Page 7: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Response Remoteness

Kodiak to Point Barrow is 940 miles across three mountain ranges—about the same distance as LA to Seattle

arcticresponsetechnology.org

Challenges to Management

Page 8: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Lack of Basic Scientific Information

“The Arctic Ocean is the least well known ocean on the planet. We know more about the topography of the planets Venus and Mars than we do about the bathymetry of the Arctic Ocean.”

Challenges to Management

Page 9: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

•  The Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Management and Conservation Act (MSA)

•  The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA)

State Waters Exclusive Economic

Zone (EEZ)

Federal Statutory Framework

Page 10: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

The Starting Point: Fisheries

Page 11: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

“establish federal fisheries management . . . before an unregulated commercial fishery emerges and causes adverse impacts to the marine resources and ecosystem”

Proactive Management

Page 12: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Optimum Yield (OY)

Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)

Stock F MSY B MSY MSY Snow crab 0.36 1,268 mt 453 mt Arctic cod 0.70 8,298 mt 5,758 mt Saffron cod 0.62 953 mt 589 mt

Fishery Uncertainty Non-consumptive Value

Costs Ecosystem

Snow crab 36% ~0% ~100% ~0% Arctic cod 55% ~0% ~100% ~100% Saffron cod 61% ~0% ~100% ~100%

The Fishery

Page 13: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

“initially prohibits commercial fishing in the Arctic waters of the region until more information is available to support sustainable fisheries management.”

Page 14: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

“‘Fishermen want to avoid what happened in the mid-1980s when it was every nation for itself and the pollock stocks were overfished in the Bering Sea and collapsed,’” said Dave Benton, executive director of the Marine Conservation Alliance, an industry group that represents the seafood, groundfish and crab industries in Alaska. . . . ‘This time we want to get ahead of the curve,’” he said.

Community and Industry Support

Page 15: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

The Starting Point: Oil and Gas

Page 16: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent
Page 17: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

“[W]hile many items of incomplete, missing, or unavailable information were broadly relevant to the important issues at hand, none were essential.” There was: •  “sufficient information to support sound scientific judgments and

reasoned managerial decisions;”

•  a “presumption that adverse effects would certainly occur” in the event of an oil spill;

•  a “commonality of potential impacts amongst all action alternatives;”

•  protection from “other environmental laws and regulations;” and/or

•  a likelihood that better information will be available later.

Chukchi Sea Lease Sale 193

Page 18: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Controversy Litigation challenging:

2007-12 Five-Year Program

Beaufort Sea Lease Sale 202

Chukchi Sea Lease Sale 193

Shell Exploration Plans for 2007-09, 2010, and 2012-13

Air permits for exploration drilling

Oil Spill Response Plans

Page 19: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

“Expanding safe and responsible oil and gas production from the OCS is a key component of our comprehensive energy strategy to grow America’s energy economy, and will help us continue to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create jobs here at home.”

Understanding the Divergence

Page 20: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Fisheries Oil and Gas

Planning obligation

Proactive management allowed

Community involvement

Understanding the Divergence

Page 21: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Arctic FMP Oil and Gas

Community Involvement

Page 22: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Fisheries Oil and Gas

Planning obligation

Proactive management allowed

Community involvement

Congressional Leadership

Understanding the Divergence

Page 23: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Arctic FMP Oil and Gas

Congressional Leadership

Page 24: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Fisheries Oil and Gas

Planning obligation

Proactive management allowed

Community involvement

Congressional Leadership

Corporate stake in sustainable management

Understanding the Divergence

Page 25: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Fisheries Oil and Gas

Planning obligation

Proactive management allowed

Community involvement

Congressional Leadership

Corporate stake in sustainable management

Understanding the Divergence

Page 26: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Obtain and Synthesize Basic Science: Important Ecological Areas

Look Before We Leap

Page 27: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Transparent, Inclusive, and Comprehensive Planning

Page 28: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Preparedness and Accountability

Page 29: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Questions?

Page 30: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

Juneau

Kotzebue

Portland

Monterey

Washington, D.C.

New York City

Belize City Santiago, Chile

Madrid

Brussels

Page 31: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

•  Regional Fishery Management Councils

•  Fishery Management Plans •  Conservation and

Management Measures

“to take immediate action to conserve and manage the fishery resources found off the coasts of the United States”

NOAA

The Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Management and Conservation Act

Page 32: Arctic Oil and Fisheries - Alaska Sea Grantseagrant.uaf.edu/events/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/...Arctic Oil and Fisheries Michael LeVine Christopher Krenz March 29, 2013 Divergent

The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA)