arctic aurora lifescience€¦ · investor presentation may 2020 . 2 fund performance how has the...
TRANSCRIPT
Arctic Aurora LifeScience Capturing the value in Healthcare Innovation
Investor Presentation
May 2020
2
Fund performance
How has the fund performed during the Pandemic crisis?
3
Source: Arctic Fund Management April 30th 2020
The fund had a quick recovery after initial Corona volatility
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
05/16 09/16 01/17 05/17 09/17 01/18 05/18 09/18 01/19 05/19 09/19 01/20
Arctic Aurora LifeScience Class I USD (inception 25/5-16) Benchmark
12.5 %
-4.7 %
10.9 %
37.1 %
10.8 %
0.6 %
16.4 %
35.1 %
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Month YTD 12m Inception
Arctic Aurora LifeScience Class I USD (25/05-16) MSCI Pharma/Biotech/Life Science USD
AALS NOK YTD: +11.2%
AALS SEK YTD: -0.8%
AALS NOKh: -6.3%
Performance Arctic Aurora LifeScience USD
4
AALS (USD) has held up vs global market YTD
5
Performance drivers
What has been the value driver behind the performance?
6
Both Pharma and Biotech have outperformed general markets
7
Arctic Aurora LifeScience comprises Biotech and Large Pharma
50 %
14 %
9 %
20 %
7 %
AALS PORTFOLIO BY SUB SECTOR
Big Pharma Big Bio Developing Bio Emerging Bio Tools/Other
Top 5 Contribution to Return - YTD
Contri-
AAL Bench +/- AAL Bench +/- bution
ROCHE HOLDING AG-GENUSSCHEIN 7.49 6.49 1.00 28.36 28.36 0.00 1.99
JOHNSON & JOHNSON 7.11 10.49 -3.38 20.51 20.51 0.00 1.48
GILEAD SCIENCES INC 2.83 2.51 0.32 51.97 51.97 0.00 1.21
ELI LILLY & CO 3.49 3.54 -0.05 37.68 37.68 0.00 1.16
PFIZER INC 5.23 5.54 -0.31 15.14 15.14 0.00 0.93
Bottom 5 Contribution to Return - YTD
Contri-
AAL Bench +/- AAL Bench +/- bution
AMARIN CORP PLC -ADR 0.82 0.00 0.82 -67.97 0.00 -67.97 -1.15
ZOGENIX INC 1.12 0.00 1.12 -36.96 0.00 -36.96 -0.80
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC 1.51 0.00 1.51 -22.70 0.00 -22.70 -0.71
MORPHOSYS AG 1.22 0.00 1.22 -14.10 0.00 -14.10 -0.35
ROCKET PHARMACEUTICALS INC 0.39 0.00 0.39 -35.25 0.00 -35.25 -0.27
Total Return
% Average weight Total Return
% Average weight
Arctic Aurora LifeScience – Performance contribution YTD
Source: Arctic Fund Management 30.04.20
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9
Healthcare a safe haven
Is healthcare that defensive sector it is said to be?
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Biopharma’s defensive properties during the last 20y
Financial crisis
DRG outperformed S&P 500 in 7 out of the
last 20 years; BTK outperformed in 15 of
last 20 years
NYSE® Arca Biotechnology Index™ (BTK), Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
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Safen Haven during the Pandemic 2020 YTD
Leerink, May 2, 2020
i
Pharma: projected stable growth of 4-5%*
a
EUROPE
19%→ 30%
AFRICA
4%→ 23%
ASIA
9%→ 27%
S.AMERICA
9%→ 31%
N.AMERICA
17%→ 28%
OCEANIA
13%→ 25%
Projected portion of population
aged 65+ years 2020 to 2100 GLOBALLY 9% → 23%
DEMOGRAPHY LIFE STYLE
Tobacco, alcohol, unhealthy diet
and lack of physical activity
are among the main causes of cancer
The obesity epidemic has led to a strong global
increase in diabetes
New cases of cancer are expected to increase by
70% over the next two decades
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Spending on Drugs to Reach 1,5 trillion USD by 2023
*) IQVIA independent forecast
Clearer guidelines from government regulatory
agencies (FDA in the US) provide better
predictability and shorter review times for new
medicines
New product launches will increase from an
annual average of 46 to an average of 54
through 2023 (IQVIA)
An historic time: new, transforming treatments drives growth
REGULATORY
The human genetic material (genome) mapped in 2003
It has taken a long time from new knowledge to develop into new treatments
Standing in the beginning of a new era of innovative products that are changing how we treat diseases
INNOVATION
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Collaborating, focussing to fight COVID19!
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Impact of the Corona crisis
What’s the impact of this crisis? What can we expect this time?
Strong Q1 earnings. In many cases better than expectations
COVID 19 related stock piling of pharmaceuticals and increased prescriptions during the start of the pandemic, but even adjusted for that, the group showed strength and resilience
Supply chains are largely intact due to multicenter manufacturing
Already started clinical trials largely on track. Delays in planned, but expected manageable impact
Guidance for 2020 was broadly maintained, with the exception of Merck where a large part of the product portfolio is derived from in office-administered drugs.
Q2 is expected to be negatively impacted both from the reversal of the stock piling in Q1 as well as disruptions in physicians visits impacting prescriptions and clinical trials
Underlying demand not significantly impacted and is expected to stabilize as society reopens
15
Large pharma 1st quarter strong and guidance confirmed
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Overall Rx development two last years in detail
Source: IQVIA, MorganStanley
Oncology is impacted by less hospital visits
Stock piling early in the crisis, falling off
Less acute care slowing slightly
Areas like pain not impacted
17
Stable demand for medicines, through recession/pandemics
Source: Morgan Stanley, IQVIA
Historically, US prescription trends have been recession/ pandemic resistant
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Biotech is non cyclical risk and reward
Is biotech different?
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Big Bio lifted by Corona focus, SMID biotech strong after initial sell off
• Gilead and Regeneron have attracted interest in COVID related projects, lifting Big
Biotech segment
• SMID biotech heavily sold down due to perceived funding risk, then heavily bought back
for strong innovation
• Innovation is valued – Innovative companies that bring true value to patients and
society is attractive. Positive stock price reactions on clinical data.
• AALS SMID biotechs are well funded
Axsome has delivered consecutive successful late-stage clinical trial readouts in mood disorders, pain and other neurological diseases
Developed a platform to improve and combine neuro-active compounds
Announced first successful Phase 3 results in major depressive disorder in many years
Drug candidate underway towards regulatory filing in migraine
In April 2020, Axsome announced positive results from a Phase 3 trial in Alzheimer’s agitation Common symptom in patients with Alzheimer’s Large impact on quality of life of patients and caregivers
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Axsome – Answering to unmet needs in neurology
Source: Bloomberg, Axsome Therapeutics
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
AXSM PR ICE S INCE 1ST I NVESTM E N T
Market value: USD 3.4bn
Area: Neurology
Diseases: Depression,
migraine, Alzheimer’s
agitation, narcolepsy
Efficacy on
Alzheimer’s agitation
during Axsome’s clinical
trial of AXS-05 during 5 weeks
Exelixis develops drugs that interferes with cancer cell’s internal growth and survival mechanisms
The company’s lead drug Cabometyx was approved in 2016 for the treatment of advances renal cancer patients
Since the, the company is working towards expanding the use of Cabometyx into other cancer indications and is also approved in liver cancer
In April 2020, results emerged from a clinical trial in which Cabometyx was combined with an immune checkpoint inhibitor, a new backbone of many cancer treatment as first line treatmet – the Cabometyx combination significantly improved survival versus existing first line renal cancer treatment
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Exelixis – Key component in effective cancer treatment
Source: Bloomberg, Axsome Therapeutics
Market value: USD 7.8bn
Area: Oncology
Diseases: Renal cancer,
liver cancer, bladder cancer,
colorectal cancer and others
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EXEL PR ICE S INCE 1ST I NVESTM E N T
37
192
453
854 968 979
1179
1498
1968
2247
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Exelixis historical revenues and consensus estimates (USD millions)
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Portfolio construction in light of recession and uncertainty
How is the fund positioned in light of current economic crisis?
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Arctic Aurora LifeScience portfolio
50 %
14 %
9 %
20 %
7 %
AALS PORTFOLIO BY SUB SECTOR
Big Pharma Big Bio Developing Bio Emerging Bio Tools/Other
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Non cyclical demand driven by demography
Good earnings visiblity!!!
Strong cash flows
Substantial Dividend Yield!
Improved political standing
Historically outperformed in bad times
Attractive valuation
The sub portfolio Pharma’s Defensive Qualities
50 %
14 %
9 %
20 %
7 %
AALS SUB SECTOR PHARMA
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Based on new, modern knowledge of biology, the development of medicines are now transforming. Targeted therapies, cell therapy, gene therapy all part of new and next generation medicines
Transformational innovation creates value. A medicine treating a devastating disease has a very attractive commercial potential.
Data from clinical studies drives stock prices
M&A theme provides investment leverage, bid premiums significant
AALS clear focus on reaching excess return by succesful analysis and selection of investments in biotech companies that develops superior products to serve unmet medical needs, thereby providing the best commerical opportunities and maximising the return.
The Biotech sub portfolio path to excess returns
50 %
14 %
9 %
20 %
7 %
AALS BIOTECH SUB SECTOR
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Valuation
Is valuation still attractive?
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Discount compared to S&P 20y
Source: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley
P/E (next 12m):
US Major Pharma 13.7X
US Biotech 16.6x
EU Major Pharma 16.3x
S&P500 18.9x
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Major pharma P/E trades at a discount relative to S&P and to its 10y avg
Source: Morganstanley, Thomson Reuters
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Outlook
What will drive return and value of the fund going forward?
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Attractive mix of defensives and opportunities
Focus on Corona related research will continue as long as the medical need
exist
Companies in the portfolio engaged in treatments and vaccines in the field
will attract special focus
Large Pharma attractive with good earnings visibility in light of recession
SMID biotechs are expected to deliver clinical data, strong news flow
Potential for M&A or deals
Fund portfolio mix should benefit from both subsegment
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Areas of high interest – potential take out candidate ideas
ONCOLOGY New targets again cancer growth drivers
Harnessing the immune system
Cell therapies
RNA THERAPEUTICS Flexible platform to address many diseases
Precise and safe treatments
Impressive therapeutic effect on difficult diseases
GENE THERAPY First products launched – many to follow
Success in previously untreatable diseases
Moving from rare diseases to larger patients populations
NEUROLOGY Steady progress in neurodegenerative diseases
Finally breakthroughs in mood disorders
Harnessing new technology to apply in CNS
CARDIOVASCULAR New genetic understanding to disease causes
Large pharma franchises looking for new drugs
New therapy technologies entering the field
LIVER DISEASE Breakthroughs in rare congenital diseases
New treatment alternatives affecting millions
Exciting drug target discoveries
Arctic Aurora LifeScience has positions in leading companies in all areas
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Investing in Arctic Aurora Life Science
• Defensive earnings – Non-cyclical demand and long-term underlying growth based on demography and
life style
• Strong cash flows and good earnings visibility – sector outperforms in bad times
• Large values created in the biotech sector -new medicines based on strong innovation are transforming
treatments
• Innovation is valued – Innovative companies that bring true value to patients and society are attractive.
M&A source of excess returns, demonstrated by the number of take-outs the last few years.
• Improved political standing – political rhetoric pressuring pharma stocks have silenced
• Compelling Valuations – Big cap pharma and big cap bio are trading at discounts to the overall market.
Significant opportunities within the SMID companies creates.
Norway
Arctic Fund Management AS
P.O. Box 1833 Vika
NO-0123 Oslo
Haakon VIIs gt 5, NO-0161 Oslo
Tel +47 21 01 31 00
www.arctic.com/afm
facebook.com/arcticfunds
@arcticfunds
Arctic Fund Management
Sweden
Arctic Fund Management AS,
Stockholm Filial
Regeringsgatan 38
SE-111 56 Stockholm
Tel +46 8 446 86107