arbitron october 2011 client briefing · 2011. 10. 14. · © 2011 arbitron inc. 3 we want your...

Arbitron October 2011 Client Briefing

October 13, 2011

2© 2011 Arbitron Inc.

Disclosures

Forward Looking Statements: Statements made in this presentation that are not historical in nature, particularly regarding expected performance in 2011 and future years, are forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, and involve various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

Important factors known by the company that could cause such material differences include those referenced or discussed from time to time in our filings with the SEC, including those referenced under the heading “ITEM 1A – Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2010 and elsewhere, and any subsequent periodic or current reports filed by us with the SEC.

In addition, any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent our estimates only as of the date hereof and should not be relied upon as representing our estimates as of any subsequent date. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change.

PPM ratings are based on audience estimates and are the opinion of Arbitron and should not be relied on for precise accuracy or precise representativeness of a demographic or radio market.


We Want Your Feedback…

»Please enter your question in the Questions box on your screen and press the send button

»We will cover your questions after the review of the sample performance and data insights


What We Will Cover Today…

»Diary Quality Initiatives and Project Leapfrog»Update on 2011 PPM panel quality initiatives »Census 2010 update »Newly released Radio Today studies »Highlights of two industry studies:

• The Road Ahead: Media and Entertainment in the Car• The Impact of Combining Local TV and Radio on Advertising: Entravision and Arbitron

»Radio: On Air. Online. On Target.»The Arbitron Client Conference/Jacobs Media Summit»Software updates: TAPSCAN Web, Get-a-GRiP, PD Advantage Web

Diary Quality Initiatives and Project Leapfrog

© 2011 Arbitron Inc.


Project Leapfrog Goals and Objectives

»Find opportunities to increase service value in small and medium sized markets

»Evolve measurement process to remain relevant with changing technological and social trends

»Project Leapfrog is an experimental approach to evolve a service which achieves these goals and objectives


Project LeapfrogBrief History

»Project conceptualized in 2008/2009 and initiated in 2010

»Feedback from the RAC and Small Market Operator’s Caucus helped shape the idea

»First test was a “proof of concept” pilot which focused exclusively on registration

»Green light for additional Research and Development based upon the results of that test


Project Leapfrog How it’s Designed to Work

Invite via postcard/mail to web site Encourage to participate via Web

Socio-economic data (can include local retail)

Diary for those who choose not to participate via Web

I can’t do the survey online, but I want my opinion to count.

Please send a listening diary to the address on the back of this card.

X

Arbitron Inc.

9705 Patuxent W oods Drive

Columbia, MD 21046


Project Leapfrog 2011 Testing and Development

»Totally new Web/mobile data collection interface•Designed using a consultant with substantial consumer Web design experience

»Enhanced contact and registration process•Input from outside consultants with expertise in direct mail•Tested different packaging approaches

»Pre-alerts added»Large-scale field test conducted May through June»Initial top-line findings complete

•Further analysis ongoing•Listening impact analysis in process


Project Leapfrog Pilot 2 Update

Scope of the Test• Tested in 5 markets with varied geographies and sizes• Several thousand invites• Evaluated multiple packaging and solicitation approaches

Registration • Improved registration compared with the 2010 initial pilot

Survey Instrument• A high proportion of registrants completed the online diary• Tested mobile interface for the first time• Paper diaries for those who did not choose to participate online

Sample representation

• Proportionality for 18-34 and 55+ both move closer to 100• Working on ethnic representation• Want to get more HH members to participate


Project Leapfrog - Summary

»Arbitron is highly committed to evolving measurement in Diary markets

»It's a learning process and experimental and there will be changes

»Pilot 2 was a success in terms of learning and identifying things we need to focus on;•Positive results on several performance metrics•Yielded valuable information on areas where work is still needed

»Continued work on Leapfrog planned for 2012

»Still too early to talk about implementation dates


Cell Phone Sample Increase for Fall 2011

»Cell phone sample increase to 20% average in Fall 2011•Additional points will be allocated where historical P18-34 performance has been lowest, and P18-34 composition of cell phone frame has been highest (relative to landline)

•Screener survey process to support this increase has begun•About 40% of markets will receive additional cell phone sample allocation; no markets decline


Promised Incentive Expansion - Fall 2011

»Promised Incentives for P18-34 planned in four book markets in Fall 2011 •Promised Incentives are higher premiums paid upon receipt of completed diaries at Arbitron in place of up-front cash

•All two book markets currently receive young adult promised incentive

•Markets are broken into two groups for Promised Incentive administration:– Households that contain P18-34 only– Households that include P18-34 and other demos


Digital Radio Reporting

»Audience estimates for any HD-multicast station or radio station Internet stream that meets minimum reporting standards

»Beginning with Summer 2011 survey for local market services; Fall 2011 for national services

»Roster of commercial stations eligible for reporting now the same in Diary- and PPM-measured markets

»Since digital station listening already included Persons Using Radio estimates, share estimates are not expected to be affected


Diary Market Sample Initiatives Summary

Initiatives Spring 2008

Fall2008

Spring 2009

Fall 2009

Spring2010

Fall2011

Cell PhoneSampling

Introduced in151 Markets

10% sample target

All Diary Markets in 50 states

10% sample target

70% increase in Cell Phone

17% sample target

Increase CP sample target to 20%

Second Chance Diary In all Four-Book

Markets

Young Adult Promised Incentive

In 117 2-Book

Markets for men 18-34

Expanded to 140

2-Book Markets

Retained in 140

2-Book Markets

Retained in 138

2-Book Markets

Expanded to bothmen AND women

18-34 in 145 2-Book Markets

Expanded to 4 book markets

(already in 2 book markets)

Benchmarks P18-54 Benchmark Introduced

P18-34 Benchmark Introduced

18-34 Benchmark Increased

Redirect cash from homes with only 55+ to boost 18-34 sample

Redirect cash from homes with only 55+ to boost

18-34 sample

PPM Panel Quality Initiatives


Finer Level of Geographic Control

»New geographies (Geo-Zones) are now in place in all PPM markets • GeoZones are clusters of zip codes nested within a sampling unit

»Designed to help further improve geographic representation• Aid in selecting and managing sample at a more discrete level

• Weighting and reporting to continue using existing sampling unit

» Implementation schedule• March 2011- Geographic zones added in High Density Black and Hispanic areas

• August 2011 - Geographic zones added in remaining areas


Finer Level Of Geographic Control Example for Wayne County in Detroit

Wayne HDBA = green/gold shaded zonesWayne Balance = pink/purple/red shaded zones

After: Two sample units (same as before) New: each divided into 5 separate Geo-Zones

Wayne HDBA = greenWayne Balance = blue

Before: Two sample units(Wayne HDBA and Wayne Balance)


Transition to Address-Based Sample

»Designed to help improve the representation of households in the panel• If we can ‘match’ the address to a phone number, we will continue to call the household to participate

• Otherwise, we will send a survey to the household to begin the recruitment process

»On average, approximately one quarter of our current sample comes from an Address-based Sample frame

» Implementation schedule• August 2011: Selection and enumeration of new address-based sample began

• December 2011: New addressed-based sample available for recruitment

• Note - already selected telephone-based sample will continue to remain in the sample until expiration


In-Person Recruitment

»Targeted to recruit households we cannot reach on a landline phone - including younger panelists and minorities

»Recruiting those who do not return a screener survey from Address-based Frame

» Implementation began in 2010 in the High Density Black and Hispanic areas in approximately half of the PPM Markets


In-Person Recruitment

»July - December 2010: Implemented in High Density Areas of approximately half of the PPM Markets

»August 2011: Expand to HDAs of 3 new markets: Columbus, West Palm Beach and Orlando

»September 2011: Expand to remaining geographies in existing IPR markets (the non-HDA portion)

»October - December 2011: Complete rollout to all geographic areas in all 48 PPM Markets


PPM 360 Update

» The new PPM 360-enabled meter • Allows for mobile data retrieval• Easier to set up, use and charge• Sleeker, smaller design• Text screen for communication and reinforcement

» Evaluation period began in August• Augments extensive testing previously conducted

including code detection tests, field tests, and cellular coverage tests

• Designed to confirm the technical performance of PPM 360 technology within the syndicated service prior to providing it for all new households

• No more than 6% of panelist households expected to have their equipment replaced during the evaluation period

Census: What’s Going to Happen In Fall/October


What’s Happening in Fall/October

»2010-based Census data projected to January 1, 2012, in use for the Claritas’ Fall/October 2011 Population Estimates Updates•Specifically: Total Persons 0+ and Black and Hispanic Persons 18+

– 2010-based Census Age/Sex data available January/Winter 2012

»New Market Rankings based on these Fall/October updates•Also based on several Diary market definitions changes


2010-based Census Data Projected to January 1, 2012

»Arbitron’s population estimates are updated every year•Limited impact on Arbitron ratings in most markets•Most decade-to-decade population shifts have been accounted for

»Most markets show little change in total persons estimates from Fall 2010 to Fall 2011•Age/sex by race/ethnicity estimates for Fall/October weighting will use 2000-based Census data

»Most markets have very similar black and Hispanic 18+ population percentages to previous years•Should be limited population-driven impacts on black and/or Hispanic Arbitron ratings


PPM: New Full Time Employment Data Source

»Original source for Arbitron’s PPM Full Time employment data was Census 2000•The employment question moved to the American Community Survey and not included in 2010 census

•Employment data from American Community Survey not fresh enough for Arbitron metro area

»New source is Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey•Will use a 12-month rolling average of adults (18+) usually employed FT and the total number of adults

•Employment estimates will continue to be prepared by Claritas

»Benefit: More up to date Full Time employment estimates


What’s Next…

»2010-based Census Age/Sex population estimates from Claritas will soon be received •Weighting based on 2010-based Age/Sex updates effective Winter/January (and Spring 2012 for two book diary markets)

»Updated Language Usage Pop Estimates for December/Winter

»Newly qualifying Differential Survey Treatment markets for Spring/April

»Download an update on key population changes in your market from my.arbitron.com before October (PPM) / Fall (Diary) data release

Support for Radio and Industry Studies

29© 2011 Arbitron Inc.© 2011 Arbitron Inc.

Radio Today 2011

» Annual snapshots of Radio consumption for over twenty years

» National tracking of radio’s audience size, time-spent-listening, hour-by-hour audience and much more

» Exclusive format-specific listening analysis and trends

» Main version plus targeted versions for Black, Hispanic, Public Radio, Network Radio and Puerto Rico

» Most popular of Arbitron studies: 28,425 downloads in 2010 by radio, agencies, advertisers, financial analysts, media analysts, reporters, and students

Free copy at: www.arbitron.com/radiotoday


Radio Today: By The Numbers

»Quarterly Update Spotlights Radio’s vitality »Simple and easy to read»Coming soon!

The Road Ahead Media and Entertainment in the Car

Free copy: www.arbitron.com/downloads/The_Road_Ahead_2011.pdf

© 2011 Arbitron Inc./Edison Research/Scarborough Research Slide 32

Radio Dominated a Simpler In-Car Landscape in 2003

1%6%

47%3%3%

44%56%

96%

Ford SyncNon-Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile Device

HD RadioGM OnStar

AM/FM Stream via Cell/Mobile DeviceBuilt-In Hard Drive

Pandora Stream via Cell/Mobile DeviceSatellite Radio

DVD PlayerCassette Player

iPod/MP3 PlayerGPS System

Cell PhoneCD Player

AM/FM Radio

% Using Device In Primary Car (2003)

Base: Driven/Ridden In a Car in Last Month

--------

Practically new in 2003


Radio Remains the King of In-Car Media in 2011

1%2%2%4%

5%6%8%9%11%11%

24%36%

50%68%

84%

4%


HD RadioGM OnStar



Audio BooksDVD Player

Cassette PlayeriPod/MP3 Player

GPS SystemCell PhoneCD Player

AM/FM Radio



--------


Radio Remains the King of In-Car Media in 2011

1%2%2%4%

5%6%8%9%11%11%

24%36%

50%68%

84%

4%


HD RadioGM OnStar



Audio BooksDVD Player

Cassette PlayeriPod/MP3 Player

GPS SystemCell PhoneCD Player

AM/FM Radio


Did not exist in 2003



In-Car Listeners Spend Nearly Twice the Time With Radio vs. Other Audio Devices Combined

AM/FM Radio64%

Built-in Hard Drive

1%

HD Radio1%

CD Player21%

Digital audio using iPod/cell

phone8%

SiriusXM5%

“Think about the time you spend in your primary car. What percent of the time would you say you listen to…”

Base: Use at Least One Audio Device In-CarAverage Self Reported Share of Time In-Car


Radio Reaches the Most Consumers Right Before They Buy

12%

15%

19%

28%

35%

53%

Read or look in a magazine

Read or look in a newspaper

Use the Internet

Watch TV

See advertising on a billboard

Listen to Radio

Base: Bought something at supermarket, department store, or any other type of store in past 24 hours

% Who Used Medium Within 30 Minutes of Last Purchase


Majority Interested In Many In-Car “Telematics” Features

29%

28%

32%

28%

23%

23%

34%

36%

39%

37%

29%

28%

28%

22%

69%

% “Somewhat” or “Very” Interested in New In-Car Features


Accident response feature

Stolen vehicle recovery system

Parked vehicle tampering notification

Built-In vehicle diagnostic/maintenance reporting system

Live operator assistance

page 1

Remote door unlocking in case of lost keys or locked in car

67%

64%

63%

51%

51%

50%

Very InterestedSomewhat Interested

Upload driving data forinsurance discount

The Impact of Combining LocalRadio and TV on Advertising

Free copy: www.arbitron.com/crossplatform/arf.htm


Background

» Entravision (EVC) owns and operates television and radio stations in the Denver market

» In 2010, Entravision and Arbitron partnered to conduct a single-source television and radio measurement pilot utilizing Arbitron’s Portable People Meter™ (PPM) solution in Denver

UnivisionTelevision

KXPK-FM KJMN-FM KMXA-AMTelefuturaTV


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

EVC TV EVC Radio

EVC Radio and TV Follow Users Throughout Their DayRadio vs. TV Share of EVC Hispanic A18-49 Impressions

Source: Arbitron PPM Cross Platform custom report, August 19, 2010 -September 15, 2010, Hispanic Adults 18-49, Mon-Sun 6AM-6AMf


Radio Exclusive

Also Watches TV88%

12%

Radio Audience

Each Medium Has Exclusive Audience

Also Listens to Radio

TV Exclusive22%

78%

Television Audience

This gives the cross-platform use of radio and TV the capability of increasing advertiser’s reach

Radio and TV Cume

Source: Arbitron PPM Cross Platform custom report, August 19, 2010 -September 15, 2010, Hispanic Adults 18-49, Mon-Sun 6AM-6AM


MorningM-F 6a-10a

DaytimeM-F 10a-5p

Early FringeM-F 5p-6p

Prime TimeM-F 6p-10p

Weekend PM Sa-Su 1p-7p

Added La Tri Color Reach When Combined with UNV-TV% Hispanic A18-49

Adding Radio to TV Delivers Near-Prime Time Levels All Day Long

Source: Arbitron PPM Cross Platform custom report. August 19, 2010 - September 15, 2010

HOW TO READ: Add another 20.1 Hispanic A18-49 reach points to Univision TV’s M-F 5P-6P reach, when including La Tri Color M-F 3P-7P

13.024.5

16.9

41.8

19.3


Conclusions

» Radio and TV together• Can bring advertisers prime-time audience levels throughout the

entire day• Increases both reach and frequency• Are more powerful in combination than either media is alone

» To better meet the objectives of their advertisers, Entravision confirmed that they should be selling their Radio and TV properties in combination

44© 2011 Arbitron Inc.© 2011 Arbitron Inc.

Radio: On Air. Online. On Target.

»Radio landscape presentation• Developed in collaboration with

Katz and the RAB • Targets agency planners to

provide uniform message about Radio’s value

»Available via…• Webinar

– Free live-web training at arbitrontraining.com

• Local broadcast associations– Debuted at June 2011 Chicago

Broadcaster Association– Similar programs being planned

Sign up: www.arbitrontraining.com

Next session: Tuesday, October 25, 2011Time: 3p ET/2p CT/1p MT/12n PT


• Ed Schultz, host of The Ed Schultz show on radio and TV

• Brooke Gladstone, co-Host and Managing Editor of NPR On the Media

• Dr. Robert Groves, Director of the U.S. Census Bureau

• Jim Farley VP News and Programming of trendsetting WTOP-FM Washington

• Mike Sheehan, CEO of Hill Holliday• Michael Smerconish, nationally syndicated

talk show host• David Lebow, President of Revenue at Group

Commerce and former radio executive will talk about radio and the importance of social commerce

• Jay Stevens, Radio One Sr. VP/Programming Content will host the annual Urban PD Clinic

• “Moms and Media” and new findings from The Road Ahead: Media and Entertainment in the Car Edison Research

Coming in December 6-8, 2011

For On-Site and On-Line SponsorshipsContact Brooke Trissel at (512) 218-8228 or [email protected]

Register now: www.arbitron.com/movingup

Arbitron Client Conference Jacobs Media Summit

Software Update


Software News

»Auto Downloader: October 7th• Will make it more convenient to download and install data

»PPM Analysis Tool with RLD Weeklies: October 14• More granular reporting for weekly data (e.g. more demos, geos, dayparts)• Requires PPM Respondent Level Data Access, Weeklies and PPM Analysis Tool subscriptions

• No change to Summary Data Set Weeklies service


Weeklies Summary Data Provides a Top Line View of Week-to-Week Changes

1.72.0 1.9

1.5

2.8

Sept. wk 1 Sept. wk 2 Sept. wk 3 Sept. wk 4 Oct. wk 1

PPM Washington DC Metro, Weeklies Summary Data, M-SU 6A-12Mid, Men 35+ Share for WMAL-FM

105.9 The Edge becomes WMAL-FM News Simulcast on 9/19 AQH Share, Men 35+


Analysis Tool RLD Weeklies Provides a More Detailed View Much Sooner

1.7 1.5

2.32.0

1.51.8 2.0

1.0 1.21.8

2.4

1.51.2

2.11.5

3.1

1.5 1.7

3.1

3.94.3

9/01

/11

9/02

/11

9/03

/11

9/04

/11

9/05

/11

9/06

/11

9/07

/11

9/08

/11

9/09

/11

9/10

/11

9/11

/11

9/12

/11

9/13

/11

9/14

/11

9/15

/11

9/16

/11

9/17

/11

9/18

/11

9/19

/11

9/20

//11

9/21

/11

105.9 The Edge becomes WMAL-FM News Simulcast on 9/19

October week one

PPM Washington DC Metro, Analysis Tool RLD Weeklies, day-by-dayMen 35+ Share for WMAL-FM

Analysis Tool/RLD/ Weekly subscribers can now see day-by-day ratings the following week

AQH Share, Men 35+


Software News

»Proposal XML in Tapscan Web

»Tapscan Web 11.0 beta: Planned for November• Major update in scheduler• Incorporating client feedback on research reports• Available to all Tapscan Web subscribers

»Get-a-GRiP 2.0: Planned for late October• SQAD data available for SQAD subscribers• Displays only advertisers that are active in given market

»PDA Web 5.0: Scheduled for Q1 2012• Goals report: run “what-if” scenarios• Enhancements to Audience Sharing and Audience Tracking reports


Feedback and Questions

»If we don’t answer your question on the call today we will get back to you via email

»Download this presentation at•my.arbitron.com

arbitron october 2011 client briefing · 2011. 10. 14. · © 2011 arbitron inc. 3 we want your...

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