arb vision: ctp 2040 scenarios caltrans ctp tac meeting october 23, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
ARB VISION: CTP 2040 SCENARIOS
CALTRANS CTP TAC MEETING
OCTOBER 23, 2014
DEFINITION: “SCENARIO PLANNING”
• Wikipedia:• “Strategic planning method…to make flexible long-
term plans”• “Systems thinking…[to evaluate] surprising futures”
• International Energy Agency (IEA):• “Identify technology portfolios”
• U.S. Department of Energy:• “Identifying the range of possibilities of trends and
policies”• “Developing a shared understanding of a problem”
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HOW SCENARIO RESULTS ARE USED IN ARB POLICY DECISIONS
Long-term scenario emission results:
• Are not intended to define single “path”, but rather identify “trends” of most promising (and risky) strategies
• Acknowledge multiple strategy combinations exist to achieve goals; with some uncertainty
• Improve understanding of transportation system impacts (e.g. fuel infrastructure, cross-sector technologies, & activity changes)
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VISION MODEL TO EVALUATE SCENARIOS
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Vehicle Efficiency
Fuels (Conventional & Alternative)
Advanced Tech.
INPUT CHOICES RESULTS
Emissions of Criteria Pollutants and GHGs
MODEL OVERVIEW: USER INPUT CHOICES & SUMMARY RESULTS
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Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
Advanced Tech.
Advanced Technology
Transportation System Efficiencies
Annually from 2010 - 2050
Energy Consumption
Vehicle Populations
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• Passenger vehicles• Heavy-duty vehicles (on-road)• Freight locomotives• Aviation
SECTORS IN VISION MODEL 2.0
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• Cargo handling equipment• Commercial harbor craft• Commercial ships (ocean going vessels)• Construction equipment• Other off-road vehicles
• Fuel production for transportation and buildings• Residential and commercial buildings
Mobile Sectors Already Included
Mobile Sectors Under Development
Stationary Sources Already Included
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BASIC MODEL STRUCTURE
Sector In-use Fleet Population (derived from inputs)
Vehicle Emissions “Tank to Wheel” (running, evap, etc)
Example Results:(for each veh type)• gNOx/mi• gROG/mi• gCO2e/mi
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Fuel demand from each fleet (gallons, kWh, etc)
Upstream Emissions, “Well to Tank”
Example Results:(for each fuel type)• gNOx/gallon• gROG/gallon• gCO2e/gallon
Example Results:• Gallons gas/yr• Gallons dsl/yr• kWh elec/yr
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MODEL & DATA COORDINATION FOR CTP2040
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MODELS, DATA HANDOFFS, ETC
• Caltrans CSTDM• MPO data, EMFAC 2011 predominantly • Alt 1 (baseline), Alt 2 (VMT strategies)
• ARB EMFAC 2014• Speed bin and VMT changes – scale base EFs
• ARB Vision 2.0• Already has default EMFAC 2014 embedded• Scale EF from speed bin changes, CTP VMT• Alt 3: Add new technology and alternative fuels
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MODELS, DATA HANDOFFS, ETC
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CSTDM EMFAC 2014
Vision 2.0
• VMT aggregated
into 4 veh bundles
• 2010, ‘20, ‘35, ’40
• By county
• By speed bin
• Disaggregate VMT
to all vehicle classes
• Extrapolate all years
• Result: TTW CO2e
by veh class & year
• EMFAC 2014 import:
• VMT by veh class
• EF by veh class
• For all years
• Statewide
Rail Plan
Aviation Plan
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THREE CTP2040 ALTERNATIVES
• Vision results for all three alternatives• Use CTP modes; add other Vision modes for context
• Alternative 1 - Baseline• CTP2040 baseline VMT• CTP2040 LDV, HDV, Passenger rail, passenger air
• Alternative 2 – Caltrans VMT strategies• Only variable – reduced VMT
• Alternative 3 – Advanced veh & fuel strategies• To fill GHG gap to 2050• May show various combinations to reach same GHG
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EXAMPLE RESULTS FROM PREVIOUS VISION MODEL
(PUBLIC STAFF REPORTS)
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Statewide GHG Emissions
South Coast NOx Emissions
Targets
2012 SCENARIOS:COMBINED RESULTS
BAU = business as usual (existing policies)13ARB, Oct 23, 2014
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2012 SCENARIO BAU: STATEWIDE GHG EMISSIONS
Emission Targets
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2012 SCENARIO 2: STATEWIDE GHG EMISSIONS
~30% Below 1990
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Emission Targets
2012 SCENARIO BAU: SOUTH COAST NOX EMISSIONS
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2012 SCENARIO 3: SOUTH COAST NOX EMISSIONS
Emission Targets
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2009 STATEWIDE GHG SCENARIO: LDV FLEET TECHNOLOGY MIX
PHEVs
ICEs
HEVs BEVsFCVs
ZEV+PHEV Sales
ZEV Reg
79%
87%
ZEV+ PHEV
ZEV only
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2012 SCENARIO 3: SCAB HDV FLEET TECHNOLOGY MIX
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2012 SCENARIO 3: FUEL SUPPLY TRANSFORMATION
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FUELS TRANSFORMATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR CTP2040
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INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE
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CTP 2040
Highway Transit Aviation Rail Freight
Mo
dal
Pla
ns
Reduce VMTEfficient Operation of System
Low Carbon FuelsAdvanced Vehicle Tech A
pp
roac
hes
New Nexus / System Issue: Alt fuel infrastructure• Road network – Truck trips for feedstocks and fuel stations• VMT from adv vehicles – where they fuel, park, etc• Facilities – fuel depots for multi-modes (e.g. freight)
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Fuel production facilities and delivery occur locally to varying degrees. Activities and land-use will change
FUEL TRANSFORMATION: REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
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TODAY
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FUEL TRANSFORMATION: REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
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TOMORROW: Biofuels - More feedstock truck trips
TOMORROW: Hydrogen - More fuel delivery truck trips
FUEL TRANSFORMATION: REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
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TODAY TOMORROW: Electricity
• Most fueling at home, some at work
• Different trip profile for fueling (work, retail)
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SCENARIO RESULTS: FUELING INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS
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Long-term scenario result: Expansive alternative fuel use
• H2 stations for LDVs: 1,118 stations by 2030 *• Based on station size: 500 kg/day capacity @ 90% utilization & 1kg/d/veh• Today: 17 H2 stations in CA (30 – 120 kg/day capacity each)
• Renewable Diesel: 20 new biofuel refineries by 2030 **• Based on refinery size: 50 million gallons/yr (mgpy) capacity• Today: 3 ethanol production facilities in CA @ 50 mgpy (imported corn)
• Similar needs for: Electric chargers, CNG, LNG stations
Near-term potential policy action(s):
• Create infrastructure roadmap, with CEC, PUC, Caltrans• Focus on: H2, Electric chargers, CNG, LNG
* 503,000 FCVs on-road by 2030** ~1 billion gallons RD by 2030ARB, Oct 23, 2014