April 2015 Consumer Confidence – Conference Board

Conclusion

April 2015 consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, declined from the previous month but remain above levels seen a year ago. At a high level, consumer confidence generally, remains below the peak levels seen immediately prior to the 2008-2009 recession.

Most interesting to this writer is that consumer confidence in their future has not moved higher in almost a year. It appears that lower gas prices had no material impact on future expectations and, instead impacted only present conditions.

As readers of this note know, we focus our analysis on confidence measured by level of income. From an income perspective, consumer confidence is an almost perfect reflection of the economic data we are seeing overall. Those earning at the high end are very confident and out-performing the market overall while those at income levels below the highest end are underperforming the population overall by the largest margin ever (in contrast to pre-recession times when those at the highest levels of income as well as all other levels of income tended to perform in line with everyone else).

Analysis

April 2015 consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, was 95.2 versus 101.4 in March 2015 and 81.7 in April 2014. The current level places us back at levels seen in 2005 as the housing bubble was heading towards its climax.

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1602/

1/19

6711

/1/1

968

8/1/

1970

5/1/

1972

2/1/

1974

11/1

/197

58/

1/19

775/

1/19

792/

1/19

8111

/1/1

982

8/1/

1984

5/1/

1986

2/1/

1988

11/1

/198

98/

1/19

915/

1/19

932/

1/19

9511

/1/1

996

8/1/

1998

5/1/

2000

2/1/

2002

11/1

/200

38/

1/20

055/

1/20

072/

1/20

0911

/1/2

010

8/1/

2012

5/1/

2014

Consumer Confidence, Conference Board, Total

Consumer Confidence, Conference Board, Total

Taking a step back, most the recent improvements have come from consumer’s assessment of their present situation as their assessment of their future situation has remained mostly constant since March 2014. Perhaps consumers view declining energy prices as “temporary”:

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1/1/

2007

4/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

10/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

4/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

10/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

4/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

10/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

4/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

10/1

/201

0

1/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

10/1

/201

1

1/1/

2012

4/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

10/1

/201

2

1/1/

2013

4/1/

2013

7/1/

2013

10/1

/201

3

1/1/

2014

4/1/

2014

7/1/

2014

10/1

/201

4

1/1/

2015

4/1/

2015

Consumer Confidence (2007-Present): Present Conditions versus Future Expectations

Present Situation Future Expectations

Looking beneath the headline, consumer confidence is consistent with most of the other economic data we continue to receive: strong at the high end, middling at the middle and low at the low end. This is somewhat surprising given the declines in energy prices should have translated most strongly to those at the middle and bottom of the income levels.

The highest income earners (light blue line) have fully recovered from the recession while those below the highest earners have not seen a full return in their confidence:

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1601/

1/19

89

11/1

/198

9

9/1/

1990

7/1/

1991

5/1/

1992

3/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

11/1

/199

4

9/1/

1995

7/1/

1996

5/1/

1997

3/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

11/1

/199

9

9/1/

2000

7/1/

2001

5/1/

2002

3/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

11/1

/200

4

9/1/

2005

7/1/

2006

5/1/

2007

3/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

9/1/

2010

7/1/

2011

5/1/

2012

3/1/

2013

1/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

Consumer Confidence, Conference Board, By Income

<$15k $15-25k $25-35k $35-50k >$50k

The highest wage earners continue to outperform the population overall and this differential is accelerating:

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1/1/

1989

11/1

/198

9

9/1/

1990

7/1/

1991

5/1/

1992

3/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

11/1

/199

4

9/1/

1995

7/1/

1996

5/1/

1997

3/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

11/1

/199

9

9/1/

2000

7/1/

2001

5/1/

2002

3/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

11/1

/200

4

9/1/

2005

7/1/

2006

5/1/

2007

3/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

9/1/

2010

7/1/

2011

5/1/

2012

3/1/

2013

1/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

Consumer Confidence, Total versus $50k+ Wage Earners, Indexed to 1/1989

$50k+ Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total

Those just under the highest income levels continue to underperform confidence overall. Their overall confidence level is now where it was early in the 2003-2007 recovery:

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1/1/

1989

11/1

/198

9

9/1/

1990

7/1/

1991

5/1/

1992

3/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

11/1

/199

4

9/1/

1995

7/1/

1996

5/1/

1997

3/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

11/1

/199

9

9/1/

2000

7/1/

2001

5/1/

2002

3/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

11/1

/200

4

9/1/

2005

7/1/

2006

5/1/

2007

3/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

9/1/

2010

7/1/

2011

5/1/

2012

3/1/

2013

1/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

Consumer Confidence, Total versus $35-50k Wage Earners, Indexed to 1/1989

$35-50k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total

Those at the median wage ($28k) continue to underperform the population. As a group, they are now as confident as they were back in 2003-2004 before the recovery began:

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1/1/

1989

11/1

/198

9

9/1/

1990

7/1/

1991

5/1/

1992

3/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

11/1

/199

4

9/1/

1995

7/1/

1996

5/1/

1997

3/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

11/1

/199

9

9/1/

2000

7/1/

2001

5/1/

2002

3/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

11/1

/200

4

9/1/

2005

7/1/

2006

5/1/

2007

3/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

9/1/

2010

7/1/

2011

5/1/

2012

3/1/

2013

1/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

Consumer Confidence, Total versus $25-35k Wage Earners, Indexed to 1/1989

$25-35k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total

The lower income groups have seen modest improvement in confidence since energy prices declined. Measured in terms of their confidence, these groups of people have recovered from the depths of the 2008 recession but only modestly as measured relative to the depths of the 2001-2004 period and they are significantly underperforming relative to confidence overall. In fact, the gap between the confidence level of the population overall and these groups have never been greater:

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1/1/

1989

11/1

/198

9

9/1/

1990

7/1/

1991

5/1/

1992

3/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

11/1

/199

4

9/1/

1995

7/1/

1996

5/1/

1997

3/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

11/1

/199

9

9/1/

2000

7/1/

2001

5/1/

2002

3/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

11/1

/200

4

9/1/

2005

7/1/

2006

5/1/

2007

3/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

9/1/

2010

7/1/

2011

5/1/

2012

3/1/

2013

1/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

Consumer Confidence, Total versus $15-25k Wage Earners, Indexed to 1/1989

$15-25k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1/1/

1989

11/1

/198

9

9/1/

1990

7/1/

1991

5/1/

1992

3/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

11/1

/199

4

9/1/

1995

7/1/

1996

5/1/

1997

3/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

11/1

/199

9

9/1/

2000

7/1/

2001

5/1/

2002

3/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

11/1

/200

4

9/1/

2005

7/1/

2006

5/1/

2007

3/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

9/1/

2010

7/1/

2011

5/1/

2012

3/1/

2013

1/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

Consumer Confidence, Total versus <$15k Wage Earners, Indexed to 1/1989

<$15k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total