april 2014 greater boston real estate market trends report
DESCRIPTION
Here's April 2014’s Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors® Buyer demand continues to be high, but a lack of homes for sale has resulted in a drop of closed sales in April 2014. Prices continue to move up because demand for available homes to buy is outpacing supply. inventory moderate or slightly increasing. • April single-family home sales – Down 7.2% over last year. • April Single-family median prices were UP 2.3% to $320,000. 19 straight months of increases. • April condo sales Down 2.7% and median prices UP 11.7% ($318,900) • Inventory in April Down 12% to 19,240 and Condominiums Down 23.7% to 5,156 • SF listings added to the market in April Down 2.5% over last year. (8,986 from 9,214 in 2013) • Condo listings added to the market Down 4.7% over last year. (3,102 from 3,255 in 2013)TRANSCRIPT
Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
April 2014 Quick Facts
23456789
10111213
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Click on desired metric to jump to that page.
Months Supply of Inventory
Days On Market Until Sale
Percent of Original List Price Received
City of Boston Overview
Pending Sales
New Listings
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of May 16, 2014. All data from MLS PropertyInformation Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
- 12.4%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Single-Family Only
The public has finally grown used to talk of a real estate market in recovery. With prices going up, people are starting to wonder if a new bubble is forming. Most metropolitan markets are somewhere between recovery and normalization. Supply is still tight but improving in some areas. What housing really needs is further job and wage growth to support healthy demand levels fueled by new household formations.
New Listings in the Greater Boston region were down 5.7 percent for detached homes and 10.8 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased 12.4 percent for detached homes but increased 0.1 percent for condominiums.
The Median Sales Price was up 9.4 percent to $525,000 for single-family properties and 8.4 percent to $419,950 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory remained flat for single-family units but was down 26.7 percent for condo units.
April's job growth was above expectations. Growth is likely to accelerate through the year, but the types of jobs being created is also important. We're producing more low-wage jobs as opposed to high-wage jobs. That's not conducive to increasing the number of potential buyers. It also means less disposable income sloshing around. Even so, some local markets may pause but are unlikely to falter thanks to suppressed supply levels and an improving sales mix. Don't confuse temporarily weak demand indicators for stagnation.
+ 0.1%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales
Condominium Only
- 6.0%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed SalesAll Properties
Single-Family Market Overview
Condominium Market Overview
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Apr-2013 Apr-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –
2,195 - 8.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings 1,995 1,882 - 5.7% 5,191 5,002 - 3.6%
Closed Sales 767 672 - 12.4% 2,405
$499,900 + 13.6%
93
100 82
82
-- -- --
2,771 2,429
3.6 + 0.0%
$525,000 + 9.4% $440,000
104
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory 3.6
$480,000
Pending Sales
Median Sales Price
- 7.7%3,5711,380 1,313 - 4.9% 3,868
- 12.3% -- --
- 18.4% 109 86 - 21.4%
--
95.2% 96.8%
- 20.6%
+ 1.8%Percent of OriginalList Price Received
Days on Market Until Sale
96.7%
- 12.7%
+ 1.4%
81
98.1%
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Apr-2013 Apr-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –
- 11.2%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
New Listings 1,661 1,482 - 10.8% 4,856 4,313
+ 1.3%
Pending Sales 1,269 1,207 - 4.9% 3,799 3,543 - 6.7%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
98.8% 99.7% + 0.9% 97.4% 98.7%
--
Days on Market Until Sale 63 56 - 11.8% 77 64 - 16.7%
Months Supply of Inventory 2.5 1.8 - 26.7% -- --
- 19.2%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,979 1,452 - 26.6% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 124 102 - 17.6% 127 102
+ 0.6%
Median Sales Price $387,500 $419,950 + 8.4% $380,000 $420,000 + 10.5%
Closed Sales 805 806 + 0.1% 2,382 2,397
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 1,096 + 10.0% 1,068 + 6.3%
Jun-2013 1,481 - 1.1% 1,246 - 1.0%
Jul-2013 1,488 + 18.0% 1,252 + 20.7%
Aug-2013 1,429 + 11.6% 1,277 + 6.2%
Sep-2013 919 + 22.4% 887 + 18.7%
Oct-2013 855 + 10.5% 764 + 7.5%
Nov-2013 791 - 11.4% 711 - 5.8%
Dec-2013 900 + 10.6% 789 + 3.0%
Jan-2014 569 - 4.7% 526 + 2.3%
Feb-2014 408 - 4.0% 421 - 3.2%
Mar-2014 546 - 11.4% 644 + 2.5%
Apr-2014 672 - 12.4% 806 + 0.1%
Total 11,154 + 4.5% 10,391 + 5.3%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
735 756 767 805
672
806
Single-Family Condominium
April
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+0.1% +6.5% +4.4%
2014 2013 2014 2013
2,355 2,156
2,405 2,382 2,195
2,397
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+0.6% +10.5% +2.1%
2014 2013 2014 2013
-12.4% -8.7%
2012 2012 2012 2012
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 $500,000 + 7.2% $410,000 + 7.6%
Jun-2013 $545,000 + 8.1% $420,000 + 5.0%
Jul-2013 $533,000 + 4.1% $400,500 + 3.5%
Aug-2013 $520,000 + 5.3% $416,000 + 9.5%
Sep-2013 $502,500 + 15.5% $410,000 + 9.3%
Oct-2013 $474,000 + 9.0% $416,750 + 13.8%
Nov-2013 $480,000 + 6.7% $410,500 + 8.0%
Dec-2013 $500,000 + 6.4% $420,800 + 10.6%
Jan-2014 $486,575 + 13.2% $420,500 + 13.9%
Feb-2014 $476,950 + 10.9% $400,000 + 14.3%
Mar-2014 $499,950 + 16.2% $436,500 + 7.8%
Apr-2014 $525,000 + 9.4% $419,950 + 8.4%
Median $510,000 + 8.5% $415,000 + 8.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
$420,000
$371,500
$480,000
$387,500
$525,000
$419,950
Single-Family Condominium
April
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium
+8.4% +4.3% +14.3%
2014 2013 2014 2013
$411,000
$359,900
$440,000
$380,000
$499,900
$420,000
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+10.5% +5.6% +7.1%
2014 2013 2014 2013
+9.4% +13.6%
2012 2012 2012 2012
Housing Affordability Index
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 93 - 5.3% 113 - 5.6%
Jun-2013 81 - 11.7% 105 - 9.1%
Jul-2013 83 - 8.8% 110 - 8.3%
Aug-2013 84 - 10.6% 105 - 14.0%
Sep-2013 88 - 18.8% 108 - 14.2%
Oct-2013 94 - 13.4% 106 - 17.0%
Nov-2013 98 - 6.9% 114 - 8.1%
Dec-2013 90 - 11.6% 106 - 14.9%
Jan-2014 87 - 22.6% 101 - 23.1%
Feb-2014 90 - 18.1% 108 - 20.5%
Mar-2014 86 - 21.5% 99 - 15.3%
Apr-2014 82 - 18.4% 102 - 17.6%
Average 88 -14.0% 107 -14.0%
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
108
122
100
124
82
102
Single-Family Condominium
April
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium
-17.6% +2.0% -6.9%
110
126
109
127
86
102
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-19.2% +0.8% -0.6%
2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
-18.4% -21.4%
2012 2012 2012 2012
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 3,042 - 30.6% 2,078 - 34.8%
Jun-2013 3,035 - 26.6% 2,035 - 31.5%
Jul-2013 2,868 - 24.9% 1,872 - 31.7%
Aug-2013 2,760 - 23.4% 1,756 - 27.6%
Sep-2013 3,003 - 20.2% 1,975 - 21.9%
Oct-2013 2,889 - 16.9% 1,906 - 18.0%
Nov-2013 2,436 - 18.4% 1,599 - 20.3%
Dec-2013 1,871 - 18.5% 1,277 - 16.3%
Jan-2014 1,843 - 19.7% 1,261 - 20.4%
Feb-2014 1,955 - 18.6% 1,320 - 22.4%
Mar-2014 2,102 - 11.6% 1,361 - 21.6%
Apr-2014 2,429 - 12.3% 1,452 - 26.6%
Average 2,519 - 21.1% 1,658 - 25.5%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
4,251
3,297
2,771
1,979
2,429
1,452
Single-Family Condominium
April
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium
-26.6% -40.0% -34.8%
2014 2013 2014 2013
-12.3%
2012 2012
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 2.8 - 37.0% 1.9 - 38.6%
Jun-2013 2.0 - 25.8% 1.6 - 30.8%
Jul-2013 1.9 - 36.3% 1.5 - 43.4%
Aug-2013 1.9 - 31.4% 1.4 - 31.8%
Sep-2013 3.3 - 34.8% 2.2 - 34.2%
Oct-2013 3.4 - 24.8% 2.5 - 23.6%
Nov-2013 3.1 - 7.9% 2.2 - 15.4%
Dec-2013 2.1 - 26.3% 1.6 - 18.7%
Jan-2014 3.2 - 15.7% 2.4 - 22.2%
Feb-2014 4.8 - 15.2% 3.1 - 19.8%
Mar-2014 3.8 - 0.2% 2.1 - 23.5%
Apr-2014 3.6 + 0.0% 1.8 - 26.7%
Average 2.7 - 27.9% 1.9 - 33.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
5.8
4.4
3.6
2.5
3.6
1.8
Single-Family Condominium
April
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium
-26.7% -43.6% -37.5%
2014 2013 2014 2013
+0.0%
2012 2012
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 75 - 22.3% 51 - 40.3%
Jun-2013 56 - 37.8% 43 - 42.4%
Jul-2013 47 - 41.6% 38 - 46.2%
Aug-2013 48 - 45.0% 40 - 47.1%
Sep-2013 57 - 36.1% 49 - 42.0%
Oct-2013 59 - 33.7% 47 - 43.9%
Nov-2013 65 - 27.2% 51 - 33.6%
Dec-2013 70 - 28.0% 55 - 34.1%
Jan-2014 79 - 27.5% 63 - 28.9%
Feb-2014 89 - 19.8% 78 - 17.9%
Mar-2014 82 - 23.1% 65 - 8.4%
Apr-2014 81 - 12.7% 56 - 11.8%
Total 63 - 32.1% 48 - 34.2%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
120
98 93
63
81
56
Single-Family Condominium
April
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium
-11.8% -35.1% -22.8%
128
113 104
77 82
64
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-16.7% -32.0% -18.9%
2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
-12.7% -20.6%
2012 2012 2012 2012
Percent of Original List Price Received
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5%
Jun-2013 98.4% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.5%
Jul-2013 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5%
Aug-2013 97.9% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.5%
Sep-2013 97.3% + 3.0% 99.0% + 2.6%
Oct-2013 97.2% + 3.0% 98.8% + 3.1%
Nov-2013 96.3% + 1.7% 98.9% + 2.8%
Dec-2013 95.9% + 1.8% 98.0% + 1.9%
Jan-2014 95.8% + 2.0% 97.4% + 1.6%
Feb-2014 96.1% + 2.0% 98.1% + 1.5%
Mar-2014 97.0% + 1.9% 98.9% + 1.3%
Apr-2014 98.1% + 1.4% 99.7% + 0.9%
Average 97.4% + 2.5% 99.2% + 2.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
93.5% 95.7% 96.7% 98.8% 98.1% 99.7%
Single-Family Condominium
April
89%
91%
93%
95%
97%
99%
101%
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium
+0.9% +3.2% +3.5%
92.3% 94.3% 95.2% 97.4% 96.8% 98.7%
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+1.3% +3.3% +3.1%
2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
+1.4% +1.8%
2012 2012 2012 2012
Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 1,477 + 15.6% 1,257 + 6.7%
Jun-2013 1,282 + 9.3% 1,088 + 9.8%
Jul-2013 975 + 4.5% 949 + 19.5%
Aug-2013 887 + 15.2% 756 + 3.7%
Sep-2013 834 - 2.1% 782 + 6.8%
Oct-2013 939 + 8.2% 814 + 3.0%
Nov-2013 695 + 2.2% 633 + 6.9%
Dec-2013 471 - 6.0% 418 - 8.9%
Jan-2014 512 - 17.7% 604 - 7.9%
Feb-2014 666 - 5.1% 720 + 1.1%
Mar-2014 1,080 - 7.2% 1,012 - 12.9%
Apr-2014 1,313 - 4.9% 1,207 - 4.9%
Total 11,131 + 1.9% 10,240 + 1.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
1,228 1,163
1,380 1,269 1,313
1,207
Single-Family Condominium
April
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
-4.9% +9.1% +12.4%
3,728 3,525
3,868 3,799 3,571 3,543
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-6.7% +7.8% +3.8%
2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
-4.9% -7.7%
2012 2012 2012 2012
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
Single-FamilyYoY
ChangeCondominium
YoYChange
May-2013 1,981 + 14.4% 1,532 + 12.6%
Jun-2013 1,505 + 15.1% 1,223 + 7.9%
Jul-2013 1,114 + 12.2% 995 + 12.6%
Aug-2013 1,029 + 5.9% 868 + 11.9%
Sep-2013 1,455 + 6.3% 1,253 + 11.0%
Oct-2013 1,219 + 18.7% 1,009 + 17.2%
Nov-2013 651 + 4.5% 554 + 0.4%
Dec-2013 396 + 13.1% 362 + 17.9%
Jan-2014 731 - 16.0% 739 - 18.1%
Feb-2014 931 - 5.4% 887 - 6.6%
Mar-2014 1,458 + 8.6% 1,205 - 10.3%
Apr-2014 1,882 - 5.7% 1,482 - 10.8%
Total 14,352 + 5.8% 12,109 + 2.1%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
1,740
1,464
1,995
1,661
1,882
1,482
Single-Family Condominium
April
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium
-10.8% +13.5% +14.7%
5,867
5,202 5,191 4,856 5,002
4,313
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-11.2% -6.7% -11.5%
2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
-5.7% -3.6%
2012 2012 2012 2012
City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Apr-2013 Apr-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –
- 10.5%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13
New Listings 929 881 - 5.2% 2,684 2,402
+ 1.3%
Pending Sales 708 672 - 5.1% 2,078 1,911 - 8.0%
Percent of OriginalList Price Received
98.4% 99.8% + 1.3% 97.4% 98.7%
--
Days on Market Until Sale 55 47 - 13.9% 67 60 - 11.4%
Months Supply of Inventory 2.4 2.0 - 18.6% -- --
- 21.4%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 973 806 - 17.2% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 100 82 - 18.4% 109 86
+ 2.7%
Median Sales Price $413,000 $461,450 + 11.7% $410,000 $475,000 + 15.9%
Closed Sales 405 412 + 1.7% 1,254 1,288
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014