january 2014 greater boston real estate market trends report

Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

January 2014 Quick Facts

- 6.0%

Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales

Single-Family Only

The same factors that catalyzed widespread market recovery in 2012 and 2013 are likely to continue in 2014, though perhaps at a more moderate pace. That's not a bad thing, since the market is returning to a stable, healthy state. Potential trends to watch for in 2014 include increased seller activity, more new construction and fewer foreclosures on the market. Inventory is another metric to watch this year.

+ 0.8%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales

Condominium Only

- 2.9%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed SalesAll Properties

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10111213

Inventory of Homes for Sale

Click on desired metric to jump to that page.

Months Supply of Inventory

Days On Market Until Sale

Percent of Original List Price Received

City of Boston Overview

Pending Sales

New Listings

Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of February 18, 2014. All data from MLS PropertyInformation Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.

New Listings in the Greater Boston region were down 15.7 percent for detached homes and 18.2 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased 6.0 percent for detached homes but increased 0.8 percent for condominiums.

The Median Sales Price was up 12.8 percent to $485,100 for single-family properties and 13.9 percent to $420,500 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 24.9 percent for single-family units and 30.9 percent for townhouse-condo units.

Given how far the market has come, it's a good time for folks to reassess their situation. Many who were hesitant to sell in recent years may find themselves in a completely different position. Getting a fresh comparative market analysis might be a good idea. Interest rates remain attractive and should remain below their long-term average, but they are expected to creep higher in 2014. Politicians are gearing up for midterm elections, so pay close attention to campaign messaging as relates to real estate or mortgage financing. Job growth is still fundamental and is likely to dominate this election cycle.

Single-Family Market Overview

Condominium Market Overview

Closed Sales

Median Sales Price

Housing Affordability Index

Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.

Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Jan-2013 Jan-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –

561 - 6.0%Closed Sales 597 561 - 6.0% 597

$485,100 + 12.8%

125 97

2,291 1,617

$485,100 + 12.8% $430,000


Inventory of Homes for Sale

$430,000Median Sales Price

- 29.4% -- --

- 22.4% 125 97 - 22.4%

--

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2

New Listings 870 733 - 15.7% 870 733 - 15.7%

108 79

-- -- --2.9 - 24.9%

108

Months Supply of Inventory 3.8

Pending Sales - 11.7%549622 549 - 11.7% 622

93.9% 95.6%

- 27.0%

+ 1.9%Percent of OriginalList Price Received

Days on Market Until Sale

93.9%

- 27.0%

+ 1.9%

79

95.6%

1 2011 1 2012 1 2013 1 2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.


- 22.9%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,582 1,101 - 30.4% -- -- --

Housing Affordability Index 143 110 - 22.9% 143 110

+ 0.8%

Median Sales Price $369,250 $420,500 + 13.9% $369,250 $420,500 + 13.9%

Closed Sales 514 518 + 0.8% 514 518

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

- 18.2%


New Listings 902 738 - 18.2% 902 738

+ 1.7%

Pending Sales 656 636 - 3.0% 656 636 - 3.0%

Percent of OriginalList Price Received

95.8% 97.4% + 1.7% 95.8% 97.4%

--

Days on Market Until Sale 88 63 - 28.9% 88 63 - 28.9%

Months Supply of Inventory 3.1 2.1 - 30.9% -- --

1 2011 1 2012 1 2013 1 2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 425 - 8.0% 435 + 13.3%

Mar-2013 616 - 3.8% 628 + 3.6%

Apr-2013 767 + 4.4% 805 + 6.5%

May-2013 1,096 + 10.0% 1,068 + 6.4%

Jun-2013 1,480 - 1.1% 1,246 - 1.0%

Jul-2013 1,488 + 18.0% 1,252 + 20.7%

Aug-2013 1,428 + 11.6% 1,275 + 6.1%

Sep-2013 919 + 22.4% 888 + 18.9%

Oct-2013 855 + 10.5% 764 + 7.5%

Nov-2013 791 - 11.4% 710 - 6.0%

Dec-2013 897 + 10.2% 788 + 2.9%

Jan-2014 561 - 6.0% 518 + 0.8%

518

410

597

514561

518

January

20142013 20142013

518

410

597

514561

518

Year to Date

20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 11,323 + 5.8% 10,377 + 6.5%


Single-Family Condominium

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014

Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium

+0.8%+25.4%+15.3%

Single-Family Condominium+0.8%+25.4%+15.3%-6.0% -6.0%

Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 $430,000 + 8.3% $350,000 - 5.4%

Mar-2013 $430,101 + 3.6% $405,000 + 19.1%

Apr-2013 $480,000 + 14.3% $387,500 + 4.3%

May-2013 $500,000 + 7.2% $410,000 + 7.5%

Jun-2013 $545,000 + 8.1% $420,000 + 5.0%

Jul-2013 $533,000 + 4.1% $400,500 + 3.5%

Aug-2013 $521,000 + 5.5% $416,000 + 9.5%

Sep-2013 $502,500 + 15.5% $410,000 + 9.3%

Oct-2013 $474,000 + 9.0% $416,750 + 13.8%

Nov-2013 $480,000 + 6.7% $410,750 + 8.1%

Dec-2013 $499,950 + 6.4% $420,400 + 10.5%

Jan-2014 $485,100 + 12.8% $420,500 + 13.9%

$406,500

$355,000

$430,000

$369,250

$485,100

$420,500

January

20142013 20142013

$406,500

$355,000

$430,000

$369,250

$485,100

$420,500

Year to Date

20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Median $500,000 + 8.0% $409,000 + 7.6%



$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000


Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium

+13.9%+4.0%+5.8%

Single-Family Condominium+13.9%+4.0%+5.8%+12.8% +12.8%


Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 122 - 1.6% 146 + 11.2%

Mar-2013 121 + 3.4% 128 - 8.8%

Apr-2013 112 - 5.3% 136 + 2.9%

May-2013 104 - 4.8% 124 - 4.9%

Jun-2013 90 - 11.8% 114 - 9.2%

Jul-2013 92 - 9.2% 120 - 8.5%

Aug-2013 93 - 11.2% 115 - 13.9%

Sep-2013 98 - 18.5% 118 - 14.0%

Oct-2013 103 - 13.4% 116 - 16.6%

Nov-2013 108 - 6.7% 125 - 7.7%

Dec-2013 99 - 11.8% 117 - 14.6%

Jan-2014 97 - 22.4% 110 - 22.9%

This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

120

135125

143

97

110

January

120

135125

143

97

110

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Average 103 -9.4% 122 -8.9%



60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014

Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium

-22.9%+5.6%+4.1%

Single-Family Condominium-22.9%+5.6%+4.1%-22.4% -22.4%

Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 2,399 - 32.5% 1,699 - 41.5%

Mar-2013 2,375 - 40.7% 1,731 - 47.0%

Apr-2013 2,766 - 34.9% 1,973 - 40.2%

May-2013 3,034 - 30.8% 2,068 - 35.1%

Jun-2013 3,024 - 26.8% 2,022 - 31.9%

Jul-2013 2,854 - 25.2% 1,854 - 32.3%

Aug-2013 2,747 - 23.7% 1,731 - 28.6%

Sep-2013 2,978 - 20.8% 1,940 - 23.3%

Oct-2013 2,839 - 18.3% 1,860 - 19.9%

Nov-2013 2,342 - 21.5% 1,524 - 24.0%

Dec-2013 1,715 - 25.2% 1,174 - 22.9%

Jan-2014 1,617 - 29.4% 1,101 - 30.4%

3,294

2,743

2,291

1,5821,617

1,101

January

20142013 201420132012 2012

Average 2,558 - 27.9% 1,723 - 32.8%



1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000


Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium

-30.4%-42.3%-30.4% -29.4%

Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 5.6 - 26.7% 3.9 - 48.4%

Mar-2013 3.9 - 38.4% 2.8 - 48.9%

Apr-2013 3.6 - 37.6% 2.5 - 43.8%

May-2013 2.8 - 37.1% 1.9 - 39.0%

Jun-2013 2.0 - 26.0% 1.6 - 31.2%

Jul-2013 1.9 - 36.6% 1.5 - 44.0%

Aug-2013 1.9 - 31.6% 1.4 - 32.7%

Sep-2013 3.2 - 35.3% 2.2 - 35.4%

Oct-2013 3.3 - 26.0% 2.4 - 25.5%

Nov-2013 3.0 - 11.3% 2.1 - 19.1%

Dec-2013 1.9 - 32.2% 1.5 - 25.1%

Jan-2014 2.9 - 24.9% 2.1 - 30.9%

6.46.7

3.8

3.12.9

2.1

January

20142013 201420132012 2012

Average 2.8 - 35.7% 2.0 - 42.2%



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014

Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium

-30.9%-54.0%-39.7% -24.9%

Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 111 - 16.7% 95 - 22.6%

Mar-2013 107 - 17.4% 71 - 39.0%

Apr-2013 93 - 22.8% 63 - 35.1%

May-2013 75 - 22.3% 51 - 40.3%

Jun-2013 56 - 37.9% 43 - 42.4%

Jul-2013 47 - 41.6% 38 - 46.2%

Aug-2013 48 - 45.1% 40 - 47.3%

Sep-2013 57 - 36.1% 49 - 41.7%

Oct-2013 59 - 33.7% 47 - 43.9%

Nov-2013 65 - 27.2% 51 - 33.6%

Dec-2013 70 - 28.0% 55 - 34.1%

Jan-2014 79 - 27.0% 63 - 28.9%

131125

108

8879

63

January

131125

108

8879

63

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 66 - 31.7% 49 - 37.5%



30

50

70

90

110

130

150


Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium

-28.9%-29.4%-17.2%

Single-Family Condominium-28.9%-29.4%-17.2%-27.0% -27.0%

Percent of Original List Price Received

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 94.1% + 3.2% 96.7% + 3.5%

Mar-2013 95.2% + 2.3% 97.6% + 3.8%

Apr-2013 96.7% + 3.5% 98.8% + 3.2%

May-2013 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5%

Jun-2013 98.4% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.5%

Jul-2013 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5%

Aug-2013 97.9% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.6%

Sep-2013 97.3% + 3.0% 99.0% + 2.6%

Oct-2013 97.2% + 3.0% 98.8% + 3.1%

Nov-2013 96.3% + 1.7% 98.9% + 2.8%

Dec-2013 95.9% + 1.7% 98.0% + 1.9%

Jan-2014 95.6% + 1.9% 97.4% + 1.7%

Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.

90.4% 93.0%93.9% 95.8%95.6% 97.4%

January

90.4% 93.0%93.9% 95.8%95.6% 97.4%

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Average 97.1% + 2.8% 99.0% + 3.1%



89%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

101%


Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium

+1.7%+3.0%+3.8%

Single-Family Condominium+1.7%+3.0%+3.8%+1.9% +1.9%

Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 702 - 6.8% 712 - 4.3%

Mar-2013 1,164 + 1.9% 1,164 + 9.3%

Apr-2013 1,380 + 12.4% 1,270 + 9.2%

May-2013 1,479 + 15.7% 1,259 + 6.9%

Jun-2013 1,285 + 9.5% 1,091 + 10.1%

Jul-2013 979 + 4.9% 953 + 19.9%

Aug-2013 888 + 15.2% 760 + 4.3%

Sep-2013 836 - 1.9% 787 + 7.5%

Oct-2013 946 + 8.9% 816 + 3.3%

Nov-2013 705 + 3.7% 641 + 7.9%

Dec-2013 483 - 3.6% 427 - 7.0%

Jan-2014 549 - 11.7% 636 - 3.0%

605553

622656

549

636

January

605553

622656

549

636

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 11,396 + 5.5% 10,516 + 6.3%



200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200


Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium

-3.0%+18.6%+2.8%

Single-Family Condominium-3.0%+18.6%+2.8%-11.7% -11.7%

New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Feb-2013 984 - 22.4% 950 - 14.6%

Mar-2013 1,343 - 30.6% 1,342 - 21.1%

Apr-2013 1,994 + 14.6% 1,661 + 13.5%

May-2013 1,981 + 14.4% 1,531 + 12.6%

Jun-2013 1,505 + 15.1% 1,223 + 7.9%

Jul-2013 1,116 + 12.4% 993 + 12.3%

Aug-2013 1,031 + 6.1% 866 + 11.6%

Sep-2013 1,456 + 6.4% 1,253 + 11.0%

Oct-2013 1,216 + 18.4% 1,010 + 17.3%

Nov-2013 651 + 4.5% 554 + 0.4%

Dec-2013 393 + 12.3% 363 + 18.2%

Jan-2014 733 - 15.7% 738 - 18.2%

923 926870 902

733 738

January

923 926870 902

733 738

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 14,403 + 1.5% 12,484 + 2.5%



0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750


Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium

-18.2%-2.6%-5.7%

Single-Family Condominium-18.2%-2.6%-5.7%-15.7% -15.7%

City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.


- 22.4%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 743 571 - 23.1% -- -- --

Housing Affordability Index 125 97 - 22.4% 125 97

+ 5.2%

Median Sales Price $415,000 $465,000 + 12.0% $415,000 $465,000 + 12.0%

Closed Sales 271 285 + 5.2% 271 285

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

- 17.3%


New Listings 474 392 - 17.3% 474 392

+ 1.3%

Pending Sales 332 334 + 0.6% 332 334 + 0.6%

Percent of OriginalList Price Received

96.3% 97.5% + 1.3% 96.3% 97.5%

--

Days on Market Until Sale 77 60 - 21.2% 77 60 - 21.2%

Months Supply of Inventory 2.7 2.0 - 26.9% -- --

1 2011 1 2012 1 2013 1 2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014

january 2014 greater boston real estate market trends report

Real Estate