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Apricum Solar Intelligence Quarterly – Sample

Global and MENAT Update Q1/2017

Your direct contact:

Nikolai Dobrott

Managing Partner

[email protected]

Apricum’s Solar Intelligence Quarterly provides up-to-date

knowledge and actionable advice for solar in MENAT.

Welcome to the Apricum Solar Intelligence Quarterly

MENAT Edition – sample report. As a supplement to

our tailored strategy and transaction advisory services,

we offer a subscription product, with a quarterly

intelligence report as the centerpiece.

The sample report summarizes key figures from

Apricum’s proprietary PV market model and highlights

current trends in these industries globally. In particular,

it features an in-depth look into the MENAT region.

With the reduction of solar targets in China and the

ITC in the U.S. under potential threat, the medium-

term outlook at the start of 2017 has changed

significantly from where we were last year. On the

other hand, we also see more and more concrete

projects being tendered and realized in new markets.

The ever more compelling economics of solar and

CSP will increasingly replace regulatory stimulus as

the basis of growth.

2

Apricum, as the premier advisory firm for clean energy,

is poised to support you in navigating the turbulent

waters of the solar industry, in particular in the MENAT

region. Through our long presence and experience in

the region, we are well positioned to provide accurate

and actionable advice.

I hope this sample report sufficiently illustrates the

value we can add for you and your company.

We are ready to discuss how we can further help you

in growing your business in the MENAT region and

beyond.

Introduction – Apricum Solar Intelligence Quarterly Q1/2017

Table of Contents.

3

Total report page count: 90+

pages

1 Global PV and CSP Quarterly Update 3

PV and CSP Global Overview 4

PV Quarterly Development – Country Highlights 5

PV Quarterly Development – Model Impact 6

CSP Quarterly Development – Country Highlights 7

Regional CAPEX Benchmarking 8

2 Global Quarterly Update by Country 9

Top Markets – China 10

Top Markets – USA 11

Top Markets – Japan 12

Top Markets – India 13

Top Markets – South Korea 14

Markets to Watch – Brazil 15

Markets to Watch – Mexico 16

Markets to Watch – Argentina 17

3 MENAT Quarterly Update 18

PV and CSP MENAT Overview 19

PV Quarterly Development – Country Highlights 20

PV Quarterly Development – Model Impact 21

4 MENAT Quarterly Update by Country 22

Top Markets – Turkey 23

Top Markets – Jordan 24

Top Markets – Morocco 24

Top Markets – Egypt 26

Top Markets – UAE 27

Markets to Watch – Iran 28

Markets to Watch – Algeria 29

Markets to Watch – Saudi Arabia 30

5 MENAT Region Monitor – Companies’ Activities 31

6 MENAT Region Monitor – Full Project List 37

PV Projects 38

CSP Projects 83

7 Appendix – List of Abbreviations 89

SAMPLE PAGE

Global quarterly update

MENAT quarterly update

Company tracker

Projects list

4

Agenda.

Apricum expects the solar market to stay relatively flat in

2017, but growth to be more regionally dispersed.

5

Solar Intelligence Quarterly Q1 2017 – Global summary

Source: Apricum analysis; Apricum PV market models Q1/2017, center scenario

2016 2017 2021

New installations [GW] 70 71 85

Cumulative capacity [GW] 301 371 668

• 2016 was the first year in which the global PV market

exceeded the size of the wind market; 2017 will be a

continuation of this trend and Apricum expects the gap

to continue widening in the long term

• 2017 global volumes is expected to stay relatively flat

vis a vis 2016; volumes in the mid-term will continue to

be strongly influenced by boom–bust cycles in the

largest markets, driven by FiT and incentive cliffs

• The global trend of transition from FiT subsidies to

competitive tendering continues in markets large and

small as governments large and small seek to reduce

cost of subsidies; Japan and China are amongst the

markets making the transition this year

• These competitive dynamics drive the cost of PV to

new lows, creating an ever stronger economic case for

solar that will drive demand despite subsidy cutbacks

• Battery storage advances are also expected to drive

PV installations in select applications and markets

toward 2020

PV market summary

Total 2017,

70.6 GWp

Global PV country market share 2017

SAMPLE PAGE Global quarterly update

China target cuts and a potential repeal of the ITC in the

U.S. represent material downside risks in the medium term.

Overview of key 2017 Q1 updates:

• China: Previously announced target cuts were

clarified to be a minimum; 2017 FiT cuts

confirmed mid-term forecast adjusted back

up; 2017 will see another boom in as

developers rush to meet 2016 FiT cutoff date1

• U.S.: Cancellation of CPP will kill demand from

late-adopter states, depressing utility-segment

demand as more early-adopter states hit RPS

targets ITC fate will shape mid-term outlook

• Japan: Shift to auction system will begin Q2

2017 for projects above 2 MW, and FiT will be

cut by 10% for sub-2 MW systems rush of

projects to meet FiT deadlines is expected in Q1

• India: 5 GW installed and >9 MW tendered in

2016 2017 figures upped to reflect progress

• Korea: Government announced plans to move

from RECs to a competitive tendering model; 6

utilities signed MOU to invest USD 3.3B in RE

over the next 2 years No change until more

concrete details become available

6

Projected global PV demand [GW]

55 67 63

54 58 62 71

55

74 78 76 83

91 99

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

297 360

414 473

535 606

230

304 383

459 542

632

731

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual PV

installations

Cumulative PV

installations

Low case

High case

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q1/2017; 1) Projects have to be completed before June 30, 2017 to qualify for the higher 2016 FiTs


Country 2016 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2017 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2018 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2019 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2020 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2021 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2021 cum. (+/- ∆ Q4)

China 27.5 +75

USA 13.5 -

Japan 9.0 -

India 5.1 -

South Korea 1.3 +195

Germany 1.3 -

France 0.7 -

Brazil 0.2 -

Australia 0.8 -

Chile 1.1 -

Taiwan 0.5 -

Thailand 1.0 -3

Mexico 0.3 -

Turkey 0.4

Italy 0.4

Others 4.7

Total 70.5

Installations in India will surge in 2017 and beyond while U.S.

demand will drop without the pressure of incentive deadlines.

7

Top 15 annual global PV markets, sorted by installations in 2017 [GWp]

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q1/2017, center scenario


CSP globally will receive a big boost from the launch of the

1.35 GW round in China, and its 2020 10 GW target.

8

Global CSP developments

CHINA

• FiT of 17 USDc/kWh confirmed

• CSP target under the 13th

Five-Year Plan reduced from

the previously proposed 10

GW to 5 GW by 2020

• List of 20 CSP+storage plants

for the 1.35 GW demonstration

project round formally released

in September; plants expected

to commission in 2018

• The first plant under the

demonstration round has

already come online in

October in Gansu province and

is now the largest CSP plant

locally, up from 10 MW before

UAE

• DEWA received 30

EOIs at end-

October for its

Phase 4 200 MW

CSP tender

INDIA

• Frenell awarded

contract for

integration of CSP

into a 210 MW

hybrid coal project in

Uttar Pradesh

USA

• SolarReserve

proposed a 2 GW

USD 5B

CSP+storage

project in Nevada;

decision will be

made in the next six

months1

AUSTRALIA

• SolarReserve’s proposal of

a 800 MW CSP+storage

project in South Australia

has generated some interest

amongst politicians

1) SolarReserve currently has an operational 110 MW project under a 13.5 USDc/kWh PPA

Brazil

• Regulators will

confirm five

consortia to

participate in a CSP

R&D program

launched in 2015

• A 50 MW plant in

the Northeastern

region entered the

feasibility studies

phase

Oman

• Oman is in process

of recruiting advisors

for its 200 MW PV-

CSP hybrid tender


Large tenders force developers to minimize costs,

especially in MENAT’s competitive auctions.

9

Global and MENAT PV CAPEX comparison [USD/Wp]

Country Indicative utility-scale CAPEX figures Apricum commentary

2016 H2 2017

Brazil [ ] [ ] • Brazilian market is based on highly-competitive auctions,

which drive down prices; no import tariffs for PV

Germany [ ] [ ] • Highly efficient system with low cost of finance and low

development costs; without anti-dumping subsidies against

Chinese modules, CAPEX could go still lower

Australia [ ] [ ] • Australia is a late mover into utility-scale PV, explaining high

prices; they are expected to normalize quickly

United

States

[ ] [ ] • Installation costs in the U.S. are inflated by tariffs on

imported modules, high labor costs, permitting costs and

generous tax subsidies

UAE [ ] [ ] • Ultra-competitive tenders; DEWA’s 800 MW tender is likely

to feature tracked systems below 1.0 USD/Wp3

Turkey [ ] [ ] • Low total costs for unlicensed projects, licensed projects will

feature high system costs due to payment for license

Jordan [ ] [ ] • High costs are a result of very high development fees in

Round 1 (as much as 0.8 USD/Wp) and generous FiT

• Round 2 projects will be more competitive

Source: Apricum interviews and analysis; 1) Financing deal reached in 2014, completion in 2016 ; 2) EPC only; 3) EPC prices for DEWA Phase III (to be installed 2018 to 2020)

likely to approach USD 0.90/Wp

F = fixed T = tracked

UPDATED


UPDATED

With the CPP most likely on the block, mid-term PV

demand will heavily depend on the fate of the ITC.

Top 5 countries by projected new PV installations in 2017 (II/V)

10

Country 2017 Q1 update and forecast impact Market context

United

States

• The U.S. had a strong Q3 with 4.1 GW installed in the

quarter (7.9 GW cumulatively 3Q 2016); with Q4

typically the strongest quarter, Apricum expects min.

12 GW for 2016, in line with previous estimates

• A picture of the impact of the Trump administration

shaped up over the last quarter: a host of climate

change deniers have been put in charge, which will

likely result in the cancellation of the Clean Power

Plan; the ITC was recently renewed in late-2015 with

bipartisan support, but may also not survive intact

• Utility-scale developers are reportedly facing

difficulties rebuilding project pipelines as early-

adopter states (e.g., California) hit their 2020 RPS

targets

• Low case assumes legislation is introduced in 2018

to abolish the ITC, causing a rush to qualify and long-

term demand to be moved forward

• High case assumes ITC remains – there will be “mini-

booms” in the residential and commercial segments

as developers push sales; utility segment may

choose to delay to 2023 for better returns

• The U.S. market is one the most important PV

markets globally, driven initially by renewable

portfolio standards legislation in various states

• To support the adoption of solar PV, a federal

investment tax credit (ITC) policy reimburses system

owners a share of the total system CAPEX in the

form of a tax credit, reducing the price of solar power

• The ITC was most recently renewed in December

2015 and will step down based on the schedule

below (cut-off based on construction start date,

projects must be built by end-2023):

• The country has no federal solar targets but

countless additional state-level targets and incentives

exist and vary across the country

• The Trump administration now has an array of

climate science deniers and fossil fuel backers in

place: the CPP will likely be axed and the ITC hangs

on the line; mid-term demand will be shaped by ITC

Source: Apricum analysis, Apricum PV Market Model Q1/2017; 1) Construction must begin before December 31 of the respective years

• 2.1 GW installed in Q2, compared to 1.4 GW in the same quarter a

year before; utility-scale projects accounted for 53% of all installed

PV in H1

• The election of a Republican administration casts a shadow over

the outlook for renewables; Apricum sees two scenarios of potential

near-term impact: 1) the ITC is not rolled back as several large

Republican states benefit from the solar industry; 2) the ITC is rolled

back as part of a larger tax reform package, which with regulatory

delays will be finalized in 2018 at earliest; with an implementation

grace period, installations will only decline in 2020

• Any impact from the Clean Power Plan (CPP)not coming into effect

is likely to hit only nearing 2020 and after

• Residential rooftop installations are expected to stagnate next year

as a result of utilities’ pushback

• High case assumes no ITC rollback, but that effects of a solar-

hostile administration and CPP cancellation start reducing

installations in 2019–2020; low case assumes ITC cancelled and

takes effect in 2020, causing a boom in earlier years, especially in

2019 when the ITC steps down

Year1 2016–19 2020 2021 2022 Future

C&U 30% 26% 22% 10% 10%

Resi. 30% 26% 22% - -

Year2 2016 2017 2018 2019 Future

PTC 100% 80% 60% 40% -

ITC 30% 24% 18% 12% -


Report includes top 5 PV countries and markets to watch

summarized in terms of key market drivers and updates.

Top 5 PV markets Key markets to watch mid- to long-term

11




Company tracker

Projects list

12

Agenda.

Apricum expects 22 GW of PV to be installed in the MENAT

region over the next 5 years between 2017 and 2021.

Solar Intelligence Quarterly Q1 2017 – MENAT summary

13

Source: Apricum analysis; Apricum PV market model Q1/2017, center scenario

• The MENAT PV market will grow modestly in 2017 before

the market takes a leap in 2018, when a significant part of

the pipeline currently under construction is due to

commission

• The region’s cumulative capacity is expected to reach

more than 25 GW by 2021 as installations accelerate

• Preference for large-scale projects in MENAT and low PV

costs are driving a huge pipeline of tenders

• There is strong political support for solar in the region

given the positive publicity from UAE achieving world

record low costs twice in 2016

• PV is also tied to several governments’ interest in

expanding high-tech manufacturing in their respective

countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Turkey)

• However, a high degree of uncertainty (due to regulatory

delays, slow implementation, regime change, financing

risks, etc.) remains in some markets

MENAT PV market context

2016 2017 2021

New installations [GW] 1.3 1.5 6.8

Cumulative capacity [GW] 3.1 4.6 25.3

Total 2017,

4.6 GWp

Global PV country market share 2017

SAMPLE PAGE MENAT quarterly update

Steady progress in Jordan and Morocco in Q4 while Turkey

and Egypt showed signs of resolving chronic bottlenecks.

• The first two projects from Turkey’s 600 MW PV FiT tender were completed in Q4 2016, one of them

despite the hefty licensing fees of USD 250,000/MW Interested EPCs and financiers should begin

revisiting the few projects with sub-USD 500,000/MW licensing fees

• Egypt showed small but meaningful progress on its multiple open tenders as the first PV FiT project

developed by Infinity Solar reached financial close in Q4 2016, via a financing structure optimized to

mitigate foreign exchange risk over project phases

• Saudi Arabia’s energy minister estimates that USD 30–50B would be required in private sector

investments to realize the government’s renewables target of 9.5 GW by 2030, although Apricum

believes this is overestimated1; a 300 MW PV tender will reportedly be launched in the near term

developers should be prepared to move quickly and begin seeking out potential avenues of local

content should this prove to be a requirement

• Algeria released an announcement upsizing its next PV round to 4 GW, with local content focus

PV manufacturers interested in serving this market should begin to investigate the feasibility of local

cell and module manufacturing

• Jordan launches Round 3 of its Direct Proposal IPP for 200 MW of solar and 100 MW of wind;

Morocco progresses with multiple PV, CSP and wind projects

14

Key 2017/Q1 conclusions for MENAT

Source: Apricum analysis; 1) At a conservative USD 1.5/W for both PV and onshore wind, 9.5 GW would require less than USD 15B in system CAPEX

• Egypt closed Round 1 of both its PV and wind FiT tenders; Round 2 has

been launched at reduced tariffs, but allows access to international courts

economic feasibility of both Round 1/2 projects will be affected by the

currency float, but investors with risk appetite may find it worthwhile to look

into individual projects. Long-term, the currency float should be a positive

• In Saudi Arabia, RFP documents for SEC’s first 100 MW PV tender were

released to 15 prequalified bidders; there were no quantified local content

incentives momentum from this tender may carry forward into subsequent

larger-scale tenders quickly, industry players should be prepared

• Another regional record in Abu Dhabi as bids submitted for the ADWEA

Sweihan tender reached 2.94 USDc/kWh1, versus an earlier record of 2.99

USDc/kWh set only in May this year competitiveness of UAE recognized

as several large developers withdrew and only 6 of 34 prequalified

consortiums submitted bids

• Turkey announced plans for an immense 1 GW PV tender by end of year

with significant focus on local workforce development tender is expected

to be extremely competitive and favor large, vertically-integrated solar

players; a strong local partner seems imperative

• Significant progress made on Jordan’s Green Corridor project has led to

talks of a Round 3 tender utility-scale players operating in big competitive

tenders should look back toward Jordan


Utility PV tenders move forward in UAE and Jordan, while

Algeria and KSA plan larger tender rounds for 2017.

Overview of 2017 Q1 update and forecast impact:

• UAE: Sweihan (1.2 GWp1) to be awarded to the

Jinko-Marubeni consortium in Feb-17 ahead of

Apricum expectations while DEWA II reported 75%

completion by end-2016; installation forecast for parts

of both projects moved ahead by about a year

• Algeria: Ministry of Energy announces an upcoming

4 GW tender, which far surpasses the 2 GW figure

rumored over the last year; Apricum high case

significantly increased

• Turkey: Estimates in November put cumulative PV

capacity at about 600 MW above previous Apricum

projections; figures for 2015 and 2016 increased

• Jordan: Request for EOI for the Round 3 200 MW PV

IPP has been released; no change to forecast as

already taken into account

• Saudi: Based on Apricum industry sources, the next

round SEC tender will comprise 300 MW PV and

400 MW wind; 2019–2020 forecast lowered as PV

component lower than previously expected, but long-

term forecast raised with this positive signal

15

Projected PV demand in MENAT [GW]

Annual PV

installations

Cumulative PV

installations

Low case

High case

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q1/2017; countries included: Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,

Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE, Bahrain, Yemen; 1) Original tender guideline for 350 MW

1.1 1.1

2.3

4.0 4.0 5.1

0.8 1.4

2.0

4.1

6.6 6.8

8.4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2.9 4.0 6.3

10.3

14.3

19.4

1.8 3.2 5.2

9.3

15.9

22.7

31.2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Turkey and Jordan will lead the market in 2017, but will

soon be surpassed by the UAE.

16

Top annual MENAT PV markets forecast, sorted by installations in 2017 [MWp]

Country 2015 2016 2017 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2018 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2019 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2020 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2021 (+/- ∆ Q4)

2021 cum. (+/- ∆ Q4)

Turkey 208 +58 350 +75

Jordan 50 +5 291 -

Morocco 25 - 48 -

Egypt 25 - 44 -

UAE 17 - 219 +195

Iran 0.1 - 6 -

Algeria 268 - 85 -

Tunisia 5 - 6 -

Oman 4 - 10 -

Qatar 3 - 6 -

Saudi 2 - 4 -

Kuwait 2 - 21 -3

Bahrain 1 - 1 -

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q1/2017, center scenario


Country market context

Key drivers • General: FiT scheme

• Utility-scale: 600 MW TEIAS licensed tender, <1 MW

“unlicensed” PV segment2, 1 GW planned Konya plant

Key

constraints

• General: grid capacity shortage for RE integration

• Utility-scale: 600 MW licensed PV regulatory limit;

prohibitive license fees (up to 1 USD/W); lengthy

license and permitting process; only 2 of 46 projects

completed so far

• C&I: Lack of qualified integrators and distribution

network

The first officially licensed projects have been realized;

Konya 1 GW tender postponed to February 2017.

17

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q1/2017; 1) To give a sense of the demand, 9 GW of proposals were submitted for the 600 MW tender; 2) Investments to date have been for grid

feed, not self-consumption

Project updates

• Tender for the Konya 1 GW has been delayed from December

2016 to Feb 21, 2017

• First two projects under the 600 MW FiT tender (9.1 MWp and

5.3 MWp) were completed in October 2016–the 9.1 MWp

project by Akfen despite a hefty licensing fee of USD 250,000

per MW, improving the outlook for other projects in the tender

• New unlicensed projects identified in Q4: Citus Power’s

8.8 MWp, commissioned in August 2016

General market updates

• Initial reports indicate about 600 MW cumulatively installed as

of late 2016

• Swiss solar manufacturing equipment supplier Meyer Burger

announced it secured a USD 74M contract for a 200 MW wafer,

cell and module production plant in Turkey; unnamed customer

expects to start production in 2018 Q1

• German supplier Astronergy granted import license for 100 MW

of PV modules despite otherwise strict control of imports to

boost domestic manufacturing

The Turkish PV market can be thought of in 2 “segments”: 1) sub-1 MW

“unlicensed” projects that are often combined to mimic utility-scale

plants, and 2) licensed FiT projects including 600 MW1 awarded in

2015, a 1 GW plant planned in Konya. Projects under the 600 MW

round need to pay high license fees and feasibility is doubtful.

Solar capacity installed in 2015

Low case High case

Annual PV installations [MWp]

Given reports of stronger than expected progress on

unlicensed projects, Apricum has increased its

estimate for 2016; further, it has revised its 2015

estimate upward following official statistics

Residential 0%

C&I 1%

Utility-scale 99%

208 300 300 300 350 400

504 400 600

775 839 908 1,012

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Forecast update for 2017 Q1


Report includes detailed summary of all MENAT markets

mature, emerging and nascent.

Top & emerging markets in MENAT

18

Nascent markets in MENAT




Company tracker

Projects list

19

Agenda.

Apricum monitors MENA companies with solar activities

and highlights important quarterly developments.

20

Regional company monitor

Content in full quarterly report

• Comprehensive list of top MENAT

companies active in the PV and CSP

space

• Identification of companies’ key

activities in solar

• Update of companies’ quarterly

activities in the region and globally

• Companies from the following

countries covered

• Algeria • Kuwait • Qatar

• Egypt • Morocco • KSA

• Iran • Oman • Tunisia

• Jordan • Palestine • UAE

Company tracker

Apricum monitors MENA companies with solar activities

and highlights important quarterly developments.

Egypt

• Infinity Solar

• Nasr Solar

• Orascom

• Wadi Degla

21

MENAT companies with updates in Q1/2017

Morocco

• Nareva Holding

• Temasol

Kuwait

• Kharafi National

Jordan

• Green Watts

• Millenium Energy

Industries

KSA

• Abdul Latif Jameel

• ACWA Power

• Desert Technologies

UAE

• ADWEA

• DEWA

• Masdar

• TAQA

SAMPLE PAGE Company tracker

Quarterly activities of key companies in MENAT region with

renewable energy activities.

22

MENAT region company monitor (III/V)

Company Country Business activities New developments

KSA PV project development,

IPP

• Secured further loans of USD 71M total from EBRD and PROPARCO in

Dec 2016 for its 50 MWac Jordan Round 2 project

KSA Project development, IPP • Secured financing of total USD 54M for its 50 MWac Jordan Round 2

project; commissioning expected Q3 2017

• Awarded Noor PV I 170 MW projects in Morocco (3 plants of 20, 70 and

80 MW) in consortium with Chint for its winning bid of 4.8 USD cents/kWh

• Reported 75% completion of DEWA II at end-2016

KSA PV project developer,

module manufacturer (not

operational)

• Company’s 23 MW project in Jordan’s Round 1 IPP commissioned in

December 2016

Kuwait Infrastructure developer • Company’s 10 MW Shagaya Phase I PV project in Kuwait did not meet its

2016 completion deadline Apricum assumes pushed back to 1Q 2017

Source: Apricum research

SAMPLE PAGE Company tracker



Company tracker

Projects list

23

Agenda.

The full report contains a comprehensive list of all major PV

and CSP power projects in the MENAT region.

24

Market coverage of project updates for the MENAT region

Content in full quarterly report

• Coverage of >5 MW projects

across utility, commercial, and

industrial segments

• Parameters covered includes

size, project type, developer,

status, detailed comments on

history, recent developments,

financing and timeline

• Deep dive into special situations

like the Turkey 600 MW tender

(license fees information)

• Countries covered include:

• Algeria • Kuwait • Qatar

• Egypt • Morocco • KSA

• Iran • Oman • Tunisia

• Jordan • Palestine • UAE

~50 pages of project coverage with over

250 projects monitored and new projects

added every quarter

Projects list

Jordan remains one of the most active and transparent

renewable energy markets in the MENAT region.

25

Jordan PV projects (I/VIII) – Direct Proposal Round 1 IPP projects

Source: Apricum research; 1) Diamond Generating Europe Ltd. (subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corp.); Nebras Power Q.S.C. (subsidiary of Qatar Electricity & Water Company); Kawar

Group; 2) purchased from original developers, Evolution Solar, AMP and RAI; 3) Millenium Energy Industries (local), subsidiaries of the Maccaferri Industrial Group (Italy) and

Desert Technologies (Saudi Arabia); 4) bought in after award

Project name Capacity

[MWp]

Tariff

[USD/kWh]

Developer Status Comments

Shams Ma'An 60 0.148 Consortium1 Commissioned

Commissioned in October 2016. Largest project of Jordan's first IPP

tender round owned by a consortium of Japanese and Middle Eastern

investors (stake bought from original developer First Solar, who

stayed on as module supplier and EPC). The USD 170M plant

receives a lower tariff of 14.8 USD/kWh.

Jordan Solar

One 24 0.169

Adenium Energy

Capital2 Commissioned

Commissioned in September 2016. Located north of Amman in

Mafraq, Jordan. One of four plants in the first IPP tender round

developed by Adenium Energy, built by Martifer Solar and financed

by IFC, Finnfund, the Arab Bank and OFID.

Sun Edison 24 0.169 SunEdison Under

construction

The mechanical and electrical installation was mostly completed by

the start of 2016, but final commissioning delayed as a result of

SunEdison bankruptcy. Debt finance from EBRD and OPIC. Project

may be sold before being brought to final commissioning.

Falcon Ma’an 23 0.169 Consortium3 Commissioned

Will receive 16.9 USD cents/kWh FiT as part of first IPP tender round;

to be completed in 2016. Debt finance from IFC and consortium of

other lenders. In April 2016, construction began and the project was

commissioned in December 2016. .

UPDATED

First Direct Proposal round of 200 MW (238 MWp) launched by MEMR in May 2011 consisting of 13 PV projects. As of end-2016, all projects have been

commissioned except for a 24 MW project by insolvent SunEdison. 12 projects were originally approved for an aggregate 170 MW capacity, and further

projects were added to achieve the full 200 MWAC.

SAMPLE PAGE Projects list

Morocco is one of the few remaining CSP hotspots.

Hundreds of MW of both PV and CSP are planned.

26

Morocco PV projects (I/IV) – ONEE utility-scale EPC


[MW]

Project

Initiator

Business

model

Developer Status Comments

Phase I:

Noor Tafilalet PV 120 ONEE EPC

Not yet

awarded Tender

First phase of ONEE's PV programme, originally comprising 3 x

25 MW plants that was subsequently upsized to 3 x 40 MW in Nov

2017. Original estimated total cost of EUR 158M1 for 75 MW, 95%

financed by the World Bank.

After long delays, ONEE in November 2016 prequalified 11 groups

to bid on the projects – a mix of European, Asian and local EPC

players. On November 15, prequalified companies were given

access to the full tender documentation. Completion of first project

expected by late-2017.

Prequalified players are:

• Aktor (Greece),

• Chint/Kt Corporation (China/South Korea),

• Cntis/Yingli (China),

• Covec (China),

• Efacec/Energy Transfo (Portugal/Morocco),

• First Solar/Belectric/Cegelec (U.S., Germany, Morocco),

• Inabensa/Endesa (Spain),

• Sepco III (China),

• Sunpower/Temasol (U.S./Morocco),

• Ternienergia (Italy),

• TSK/Gensun (Spain/Italy)

Source: Apricum analysis; 1) The estimates from ONEE are outdated and bid results will be significantly lower; 2) Note these projects are located in Western Sahara territory and

may face financial hurdles

UPDATED

ONEE’s 520 MW PV EPC program comprising 3 phases: Noor Tafilalet (120 MW), Noor Atlas (200 MW) and Noor Argana (200 MW). Phase I is currently in

pre-qualification stage and Phases II and III are planned.

SAMPLE PAGE Projects list

Turkey’s FIT projects are subject to heavy licensing fees but

developers may raise FiT by up to 50% via local content.

27

TEİAŞ 600 MW FiT projects (II/IV)


[MW]

License fee

[USD’000/MW]

Developer Status

Group 2 (January 2015) 138.0

GÜN GÜNEŞ 1 GES 23.4 383,116 Gün Güneş Enerjisi Elektrik Üretim San. ve Tic. A.Ş. Development

FERNAS-4 GES 20.0 509,166 FERNAS Enerji Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. Development

KÜÇÜKKÖY GES 18.6 505,109 RES Anatolia Holding A.Ş. Development

ÖZMEN-1 GES 14.0 422,436 Ergün Enerji Üretim San.ve Tic. A.Ş. Development

TAŞKESİĞİ GES 10.4 349,510 Baltech Enerji Üretim Pazarlama San.Tic. A.Ş. Development

RENOE ACIPAYAM GES 10.0 487,297 Renoe Enerji Yatırım Bilişim Tek.San.Tic.A.Ş. (Erikoğlu Holding) Development

RA Güneş Mardin GES 9.0 205,505 RA Güneş Enerjisi Elektrik Üretim Sanayi ve Ticaret (Global Enerji) Development

Degün Urga GES 7.0 534,683 Degün Enerji Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. Development

GES GRUP MUĞLA GES 6.0 534,709 GES Grup Yat. En. ve El. Ürt. San. ve Tic. Ltd. Şti. Development

METGES BURDUR GES 6.0 579,269 METGES Enerji Elektrik Üretim Ltd Development

SERRA GES 5.6 373,707 Bolayır Enerji San. ve Tic. A.Ş. Development

DENİZLİ TAVAS GES 5.0 539,724 Dalsan Enerji Ürt. ve İşletmecilik A.Ş. Development

URAN ENERJİ ACIPAYAM

GES

3.0 423,444 Günerji Elektrik Sistemleri San.Tic.Ltd.Şti. Development

Source: Apricum analysis

SAMPLE PAGE

600 MW PV license tender for the only utility-scale projects in Turkey eligible to receive 10-year FiT of 13.3 USD cents/kWh, and potentially up to 19 USD

cents/kWh with local content bonuses. First tender round awarded in May 2014 for 54 MW of projects, followed by 230 MW in Jan 2015 and 302 MW in April

2015. Construction of projects are delayed as developers need pay a large license fee (average USD 620k/MW) that they bid in the auctions, and many

projects thus face bankability issues.

Projects list

Nikolai Dobrott

Managing Partner

+49 30 30 877 6210

[email protected]

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