Grappling with Post Ebola recovery and reconstruction

Applying the formula for a post natural or man-made crises, to the hardest-hit countries of the MRU is fraught with risk. Drawing from the case of SL the presentation examines some of the underlying forces that explain some policy dilemmas on the road to recovery/reconstruction. The aim is to encourage research and debate in support of the countries efforts and hope that there may be lessons for other countries

Grappling with post Ebola

Introduction (pledging conf plus) Background and historical trends (Structural features of pre Ebola economy in

earlier presentations)

Ebola’s passage; effects, flaws and opportunities revealed

Mitigating effects of Ebola dividendEffects of parallel shocks ( price fall in major

exports and increasing political tensions)Policy dilemmasA research agenda for the way forward

Grappling with post EbolaBackground, trends, and structure of the

economy

Data on GDP growth/ investment and public debt trends

Relative market size, structure of production

Contents of the “boom” – a few large investments / construction/ services

Major bottlenecks: energy/ infrastructure/public service delivery/ corruption / education levels

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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61 59 43

9758

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Sierra Leone Investment flow 2002-2014 (million USD $)

Investment flow (millionUSD $)

The Economy Before the Ebola

IPRSP PRSP 1 PRSP 2:

AfC PRSP 3:

A4P

2000 2005 2008 2013

Dev’t Results

Time horizon

Figure 1: Poverty Reduction Strategies since the end of the civil war

Vision 2025

to 2035

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GDP Growth Rate, 2004-2013, %

Grappling with post EbolaEbola’s passage:

Humanitarian, economic (direct and indirect), administration,

Repercussions on the sub region- trade, tourism etc

Weaknesses revealed. Health systems, public administration (service delivery, coordination, impunity, corruption and capacity).

Opportunities: regional collaboration, public and private sector ties, policy reforms (decentralisation)

Health status: widespread resort to self cure or quacks. Effects on maternal and child mortality unknown so far

Control measures affect trade and livelihoods

Grappling with post EbolaMitigating effects of the Ebola dividend

Employment,(28K on hazard pay) enhancement of civic responsibilty, infusion of work ethics and general unifying mode among population

International support: +ve even if slow; public debt, relaxation of expenditure limits, boost of tourism - hotels went from 10 – 20 % occupancy to 80% at height of epidemic.

Grappling with post EbolaParallel ShockThe quiet shock; fall in prices of iron ore gold

and oil.Public revenues – projection of $180m but

actual $40m, other tax revenues dramatic decline

Small scale industries: - support enterprises close, fal in employment for urban workers (dangers of LC & mining)

The investment climate: False boom of expections from oil. Fall from a high of almost $1b in 2011 - $100 in 2014.

Grappling with post EbolaPolicy challenges accentuated by twin shocks

of Ebola and price falls.Exposed fragility and vulnerabilty are alarm

bells: response?how to build back better on current system?How to deal with governance and capacity

issues at this time of weakness?What are the options for true diversification?How to pursue regional collaboration through

private sector

Grappling with post EbolaAreas for research

The search for appropriate low cost health systems (Cuba …)

Promoting diversification – easier said than done

Growth triangles and private sector-led growth

Enhancing public service deliveryPoltical economy of decentralisation (change in

power politics…)

ConclusionsThe failure to contain the disease and the

simultaneous fall in commodity prices exposed the fragility of the sub region and its vulnerability to shocks of various types. As the sub region staggers towards the recovery road, it is essential to give adequate attention to the sources of vulnerability otherwise another threat could occur and this time with more disastrous consequences for the world.

The epidemic has thrown the spotlight on the interdependence of the globalized world and how incidents in far-away places can threaten and even wreck the achievements elsewhere irrespective of the levels of development..