application of the urbanized mm5 to the houston-galveston region by r. bornstein*, h. taha, r....
TRANSCRIPT
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Application of the urbanized MM5 to the Houston-Galveston region
byR. Bornstein*, H. Taha, R. Balmori, SJSU
S. Dupont, J. Ching, RTP/EPA/NOAAA. Martilli, UBC
S. Stetson, SWS, Inc.D. Byun, U of Houston
S. Burian, U of Utah*[email protected]
27th NATO/CCMS/ITM MeetingBanff, Alberta, Canada
October 2004
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OUTLINEOUTLINE
PROJECTPROJECT GOALS GOALS uMM5uMM5 CONFIGURATION CONFIGURATION SYNOPTICSYNOPTIC SUMMARY: 700 MB & SUMMARY: 700 MB &
SFCSFC DOMAIN 1DOMAIN 1: MM5 WINDS VS NWS: MM5 WINDS VS NWS
MM5 WINDS (MM5 WINDS (MESOMESO CONVENTION) CONVENTION) FULL BARB = 1 M/SFULL BARB = 1 M/S FLAG = 5 M/SFLAG = 5 M/S
DOMAINS 2-4DOMAINS 2-4: MM5 WINDs: MM5 WINDs DOMAIN 5DOMAIN 5: uMM5 TEMPs & UHIs: uMM5 TEMPs & UHIs CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
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Overall: Evaluate impacts of de- & re-forestation on Houston O3 levels (Byun, USFS)
SIP Episode: Aug-Sept Texas2000 in Houston MetModel: EPA uMM5 (Martilli, Dupont, Ching) Improved: uMM5 input (Burian, Stetson) Machine: SJSU 96 CPU cluster (Balmori) Evaluate (Taha):
uMM5 vs. MM5 performance uMM5 sensitivity to LU/LC changes
Project Summary:
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5-domain configuration, D5 is “urbanized”
Resolution: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 kmGrid dimensions (excluding surface):43×53×28, 55×55×28, 100×100×28, 136×151×28, 133×141×48.
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Urbanization TechniquesUrbanization Techniques
Urbanize:Urbanize: surface, SBL, & PBL momentum, surface, SBL, & PBL momentum, thermo, & TKE Eqs thermo, & TKE Eqs
Allows prediction Allows prediction withinwithin UCL UCL From From vegetationvegetation canopy-model of canopy-model of Yamada Yamada
(1982)(1982) Veg parameters Veg parameters replacedreplaced with urban (GIS/RS) with urban (GIS/RS)
terms terms Brown and Williams 1998Brown and Williams 1998 Masson 2000Masson 2000 Sievers 2001Sievers 2001 Martilli et al. 2001 (in TVM)Martilli et al. 2001 (in TVM) Dupont et al. 2003 (in MM5)Dupont et al. 2003 (in MM5) LLNL 2004LLNL 2004
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From Masson (2000)
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uMM5 input + as f (x, y) in D-05(from Burian, Stetson, USFS)
land use (38 categories) roughness elements anthropogenic heat as f (t) vegetation and building heights paved surface fractions drag-force coefficients for buildings & vegy building height-to-width, wall-to-plan,
& impervious-area ratios building frontal, building plan, & and rooftop
area-densities vegetation top- and area-densitiesε, cρ, α, etc. of walls and roofs
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From Stetson: From Stetson: high- resolution Houston zhigh- resolution Houston zoo
datadata
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Base-case (current) vegetation cover (urban min)
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Modeled increases in vegetation cover (urban max)Values are 0.1 of those in previous chart
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MM5 vs. uMM5: Preview of MM5 vs. uMM5: Preview of ResultsResults
uMM5 takes longer than MM5uMM5 takes longer than MM5 with 1-CPU: 8 times longerwith 1-CPU: 8 times longer with 96-CPU: only 3 times longerwith 96-CPU: only 3 times longer each-day of our uMM5 simulation tookeach-day of our uMM5 simulation took
16.0 days with 1-CPU16.0 days with 1-CPU 4.5 hours with 96-CPU4.5 hours with 96-CPU
uMM5 gives better: uMM5 gives better: TKE, UHIs, & windsTKE, UHIs, & winds
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Performance for 18 hour prediction
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Performance for 18 hour prediction using 12 to 96 cpus
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Performance for 18 hour prediction using 12 to 96 cpus
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Performance by category
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Performance (real time) by category
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Synoptic PreviewSynoptic Preview Pre-episode day Pre-episode day
700 hPa:700 hPa: flow NE of Houston was from SE flow NE of Houston was from SE Sfc:Sfc: Sea-breeze frontal formation Sea-breeze frontal formation
Episode dayEpisode day 700 hPa:700 hPa: flow now from NE flow now from NE
opposition to onshore sea-breeze flowopposition to onshore sea-breeze flow Sfc:Sfc: offshore cold-core low forms offshore cold-core low forms
along-shore (NE to SW) coastal-flow along-shore (NE to SW) coastal-flow ozone episode ozone episode
NWS vs. MM5 NWS vs. MM5 NWS NWS charts show only subtle changescharts show only subtle changes MM5 MM5 provides the detailsprovides the details
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1200 UTC (0700 DST) 24 1200 UTC (0700 DST) 24 AUGAUG
700 mb700 mb Pre-Pre-
episode episode AMAM
SE flowSE flow NE of NE of HoustonHouston
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1200 UTC (0700 DST) 25 1200 UTC (0700 DST) 25 AUGAUG
700 mb700 mb EpisodeEpisode AM AM Opposing Opposing
NE flowNE flow NE NE of Houston of Houston
Will cause Will cause concon with sfc with sfc SB VSB V
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1200 UTC (0700 DST) 25 1200 UTC (0700 DST) 25 AUGAUG
Sfc chartSfc chart EpisodeEpisode
AMAM Not much Not much
detaildetail SimilarSimilar to to
day b/f & day b/f & afterafter
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MM5 results: PreviewMM5 results: Preview
Domain 1:Domain 1: CapturesCaptures NWS synoptic features (change in NWS synoptic features (change in
700 hPa flow-direction NE of Houston)700 hPa flow-direction NE of Houston) IndicatesIndicates off-shore feature (cold-core L) not off-shore feature (cold-core L) not
on NWS chartson NWS charts Domains 2-4:Domains 2-4: shows details of off-shore shows details of off-shore
LL Domain:Domain: 5: shows UHI effects 5: shows UHI effects
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Coastal Coastal Cold-Core Cold-Core L Episode L Episode
day day 3 PM 3 PM
Domains Domains 1-31-3
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Domain 4 (3 PM) :Domain 4 (3 PM) : Note cold-core L off of Houston on Note cold-core L off of Houston on OO33 day (25 day (25thth))
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Domain 4:Domain 4: weak sea weak sea breeze meets inland breeze meets inland
NE-flow NE-flow
Domain 5: Finer details of sea breeze
and NE-flow
4th (MM5) & 5th (uMM5) Domains: Non-episode day at 2 PM
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Domain 3 (12 km) 4 PM:Domain 3 (12 km) 4 PM: cold-core L cold-core L (from where?) (from where?)
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1 km uMM5 11 PM: 1 km uMM5 11 PM: nocturnal UHInocturnal UHI
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1 km uMM5 3 PM: 1 km uMM5 3 PM: daytime UHIdaytime UHI
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1 km Domain: 1 km Domain: end of daytime UHIend of daytime UHI (8 (8 PM 21 Aug)PM 21 Aug)
Upper L:Upper L: MM5 MM5
Upper R:Upper R: uMM5 uMM5
Lower L:Lower L: uMM5- uMM5-MM5MM5
uMM5uMM5 1.5 K 1.5 K warmer (warmer (stronger stronger UHIUHI))
BlobBlob is LU/LC error is LU/LC error
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1km Domain: 1km Domain: end of night UHIend of night UHI: 9 AM : 9 AM 22 Aug22 Aug
Upper L:Upper L: MM5 MM5
Upper R:Upper R: uMM5 uMM5
Lower LLower L: MM5-: MM5-uMM5uMM5
uMM5uMM5 1.5 K cooler 1.5 K cooler ((weaker UHIweaker UHI))
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Explanation of uMM5 UHI Explanation of uMM5 UHI & UCI& UCI
Wet soil TI > Wet soil TI > urban TIurban TI > dry soil TI > dry soil TI Urban an area surrounded by Urban an area surrounded by wetwet soil soil thus thus
hashas Daytime UHIDaytime UHI (as urban area (as urban area warmswarms faster than faster than
soil)soil) Nighttime UCINighttime UCI (as urban area (as urban area coolscools faster than faster than
soil)soil) ReverseReverse true with true with drydry rural soil rural soil Current results thus consistent with Current results thus consistent with wetwet
rural soil (as expected) around Houstonrural soil (as expected) around Houston, as , as uMM5 produced daytime warming & uMM5 produced daytime warming & nighttime cooling over urban Houstonnighttime cooling over urban Houston
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Ongoing & future effortsOngoing & future efforts
Additional Additional analysisanalysis of current of current simulation resultssimulation results
Additional Additional simulationssimulations on new on new 106 CPU cluster106 CPU cluster
Use planned 2005-6 Houston Use planned 2005-6 Houston field-study field-study (?) (?) datadata to to determine atm and (GIS/RS) determine atm and (GIS/RS) urban parametersurban parameters
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THE ENDTHE END
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Performance for 18 hour prediction
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Domain 1: 7 AM 24 AUGDomain 1: 7 AM 24 AUG
• 700 mb700 mb• Pre-Pre-episode episode • Weak off- Weak off- shore L shore L (not in (not in NWS) NWS) •Weak NE Weak NE flow NE of flow NE of citycity
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Domain 1: 0700 DST 25 Domain 1: 0700 DST 25 AUGAUG
700 mb700 mb Episode AM Episode AM Stronger Stronger
off-shore L off-shore L Stronger NE Stronger NE
ff NE of cityff NE of city Will cause Will cause
con with SB con with SB ffff
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Domain 1: 1800 DST 23 Domain 1: 1800 DST 23 AUGAUG Sfc chartSfc chart
Pre-episode Pre-episode On-shore SBOn-shore SB Not much Not much
difference at difference at same time on same time on next 2 daysnext 2 days
Need to see Need to see inner inner domainsdomains