APPG-Agscience Jan 28th 2009

The need to recreate a public sector crop germplasm improvement

program

Plant Science research policy needs to be joined up between Gov Depts

Jonathan Jones www.tsl.ac.uk/jj

PhD Plant Breeding Institute (PBI) 1980

PostDoc Harvard 1981-2

Scientist at Agbiotech company AGS Berkeley, CA 1983-8(>25 years of GM plants)

Sainsbury Lab since 1988

Cofounded www.mendelbio.com 1997Cofounded Norfolk Plant Sciences 2008 (purple tomatoes and disease resistance)

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_dg_jones/

Bold assertions• Food price rises not “just a blip”; main driver is

increased demand for meat from world middle class• Agriculture has a huge environmental impact; how can

we minimize it? Yield is good• Genetics constrains crop performance; crop genotypes

can be improved• Leaving it to market is not enough; margins in seeds biz

too low for big private investment in non-hybrids eg wheat

• New genomics methods create new opportunities, but investment not made if returns too low

• We need public sector germplasm improvement programs for wheat, rapeseed, and maybe others

• The PBI was the envy of the world, placing top basic science adjacent to top plant breeders

• Scientist/breeder synergy a major opportunity• Privatisation of PBI in 1987 a mistake; the “pipeline”

was narrowed; how best to reverse this mistake?

Plant Science research policy needs to be joined up

-Public investment needs to be long term-Research capacity cannot be switched on and off like a tap in response to changes in political fashion-Crop Science review; solution is not one-off funding-Public sector involvement critical to public acceptance of new technology for food production-DFID/BBSRC/DEFRA need to work and fund together-Devolution unhelpful- excellent SCRI scientists ineligible for BBSRC funding-Rethink of food production, sustainable land use, private/public balance, justifies a Foresight exercise

Plant Science research policy needs to be joined up

Treasury push for economic impact of UK science but…

-Main output for plant science is crop varieties with improved performance-Performance means more yield with less water, nitrogen, fungicides, pesticides…….-“Models to crops” problematic (“unhelpful linear model for KT- CFG 4.3)-Public sector plant breeding and training has collapsed-Private sector has focused on most profitable crops eg maize, soy, cotton-Wheat becoming an “orphan crop”; profits limited by farm-saved seed, low incentive for private investment despite public good; market failure

Plant Science research policy needs to be joined up

Treasury seeks economic impact of excellent UK plant science but………….-Technically, easiest route for public sector science is via GM-GM is safe, effective, fast-Complete GM buy-in from plant science community; no “whistleblowers” with scientific credibility-Tainted perception of GM creates big opportunity costs; projects not started, young talent not recruited-Lack of public sector GM delivery exacerbates public fears-Public sector can’t afford the absurd regulatory costs; private sector domination becomes self-fulfilling prophecy-Government needs to support GM route to market for public sector discoveries-Could we declare GM independence from Brussels? (NB I’m not a UKIP member!)

Plant Science research policy needs to be joined up

Wheat is a good example of the problem-Farm gate value of wheat in UK ~£1.5B-10% yield increase would be worth £150M/yr-Seed sales to farmers ~£60M; royalties £14M-If you get 25% market share, £3.5m/year royalty-Why would a company spend £20M to increase yield 10% if they can’t get their money back? (NB Monsanto spends >$600m) Market failure-Wheat is in real danger of becoming an “orphan crop”

What would public wheat breeding do that private would not?

-Active use of genetic resources; opening genetic bottleneck by repeatedly re-synthesizing wheat-international collaboration (good for the developing world)-Introgression of diversity into elite genetic backgrounds-Hybrid wheat-Enhanced discovery/deployment of genomics for breeding-Genetic mapping and cloning of genes for valuable QTLs; helps private sector breeders-Judicious testing of GM traits for water, N use efficiency, disease resistance etc - Public sector advocacy should enhance GM acceptability-GM likely best solution to take-all disease-Training the next generation of plant breeders-If C4 rice works, incorporate into wheat

Which agencies should support public sector crop breeding?

-BBSRC? Breeding not research, but good experience, programs at JIC, RR, IBERS and NIAB-DEFRA? DEFRA does not act like it has a crop yield enhancement mission-TSB? Uncomfortable in ag; unfortunately looks to DEFRA for guidance-Dept Energy? Biomass crops need better yield from all crops; should be on their agenda-DFID? Improved germplasm essential for improved yields; training breeders of great value-They have to work together!-NB- US Interagency working group on plant genomics

The US National Plant Genome Initiative

The US National Plant Genome Initiative

NPGI GoalsNPGI Goals

• To understand the structure and function of all plant genes at levels from the molecular to the organismal levels and on to interactions within ecosystems

• The focus is on plants of economic importance and plant processes of potential economic value

NPGI ParticipantsNPGI Participants

• National Science Foundation (NSF)• US Department of Agriculture (USDA)• US Department of Energy (DOE)• National Institutes of Health (NIH)• National Aeronautics and Space

Administration (NASA)• US Agency for International

Development (USAID)

Problem and a possible solution-AFRC lost its commitment to ag science when merged with SERC to make BBSRC in 1990s -BBSRC can tap into good expertise and has a credible and effective peer review mechanism-DEFRA has the right mission, but lacks science competence to judge/lead germplasm improvement-DEFRA only seems to fund research to support policy development, not problem solving-DFID set DEFRA a good example, using BBSRC peer review to judge proposals congruent with its mission -DEFRA should do the same, or transfer research funds to BBSRC

The view from the US private sector

-Monsanto projects a doubling of maize and soy yields by 2030-50% due to enhanced breeding, 50% from biotech traits-This year “triple stack” maize the biggest seller (RR, earworm, rootworm)-2010 “Smartstack” (8 transgene) maize-By 2015 > 20 transgenes for insect resistance, N use efficiency, drought tolerance etc-Europe is being left in the dust!

ADVANCES ASSISTING IN PROTECTING AND BOOSTING YIELDS

The Combination of Biotechnology and Breeding Can Maximize Yield Gains

Molecular Breeding Benefit

Biotechnology Yield Benefit

Grain Yield Potential in 2030

Historical Yield Data

30-Year Trend, Based on Historical Yield Data

Sizable Gains Will Be

Realized From Marker-

Assisted Breeding

0

50

1970

Avera

ge C

orn

Y

ield

(in

bu

sh

els

p

er

acre

)

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2010 2030

Average U.S. Corn Yield in 2007 was 151 Bushels Per

Acre

INNOVATIONS IN AG TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN CONTRIBUTE TO YIELD GAIN

The Combination of Breeding, Agronomic The Combination of Breeding, Agronomic Practice Improvements and Biotech Can Practice Improvements and Biotech Can Maximize Yield GainsMaximize Yield Gains

CORN YIELD POTENTIAL TO 2030 IN THE UNITED STATES

•Rain Shelter Trial Corn Plot at A Monsanto Research Site

YieldGard Plus with

Roundup Ready Corn 2

YieldGard Corn Borer with Roundup Ready Corn 2 + Force®

insecticide

YieldGard® Corn Borer

with Roundup Ready Corn 2

Roundup Ready® Corn 2

HTYield = 94 bu/ac

CB Protection+HTYield = 113.7 bu/ac

Soil-applied RW Protection+CB Protection+HTYield = 150 bu/ac

RW Protection+CB Protection+HTYield = 198.1 bu/ac

Gallons of Ethanol

535Pounds of Feed

3,170

Gallons of Ethanol

254Pounds of Feed

1,504

Gallons of Ethanol

307Pounds of Feed

1,819

Gallons of Ethanol

405Pounds of Feed

2,400

Positive Effects of Stress Mitigation Are Compounded by the Stacking of Biotech Traits

Produce More, Conserve More: Produce More, Conserve More: Pesticide, Nitrogen, Rainfall Use Declining In Pesticide, Nitrogen, Rainfall Use Declining In CornCorn

NOTE: ONE POUND OF NITROGEN = 24,500 BTUS

DECLINING PESTICIDE USE RATES IN U.S. CORN NITROGEN USE EFFICIENCY IN CORN

Data Source: USDA, NASS “Agricultural Chemical Usage Report”; dmrkynetec; NOAA

RAINFALL USE EFFICIENCY IN CORN

21000 22000 23000 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Yie

ld (

bu

/a)

Population (stalks/a)

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

1996-2007

1982-1995

Conventional

Biotech Era

Yield Gains With Plant Population Increases

PLANT POPULATION FARM PROGRESS DEMONSTRATION

Plant Science research policy needs to be joined up

-Thinking in DEFRA, BBSRC, DFID, Energy, TSB needs to be coordinated-Major investment needed in public sector breeding & training next generation of breeders-Private sector (Monsanto, DuPont) have genes for drought tolerance, N use efficiency etc; We should make private/public GM partnerships to test their (or our) transgenes in our varieties in our environments -Directive 91/414 increases urgency of elevating disease and pest resistance in crops

Exsept v Riband Septoria resistance

Colossal gains are being made in the US private sector for profitable crops such as maize

Wheat in Europe could and should share in those gains; lack of market incentive mandates PUBLIC investment

We need long term funding for public sector plant breeding; needs to be led by a leading breeder, almost certainly recruited from private sector (discussions in progress)

S/he needs sufficient budget to be independent

The program should take advantage of JIC/RR/ NIAB/SCRI/IBERS resources of land, science etc

Current JIC/NIAB/RR etc discussions will lead to a proposal via BBSRC from RCUK for CSR-09 as part of food security; you should support it !

(The results of plant breeding-Is this natural ?! )

Thanks- questions?