apbo 2014 country outlook: china · u.s. business outlook • environmental tech • healthcare •...
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
APBO 2014COUNTRY OUTLOOK:
CHINA
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• THE REFORMERS• THIRD PLENUM• LIANG HUI• SHANGHAI FTZ
BIG BROTHER
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
BIG OPPORTUNITIES
• CHINA’S GDP• TRADE SURPLUS• INCOME DISPARITY• GROWTH/DISPOSABLE
INCOME• GINI COEFFICIENT• MIDDLE INCOME TRAP• URBANIZATION• U.S. BUSINESS OUTLOOK
• ENVIRONMENTAL TECH• HEALTHCARE• GREEN BUILDING• TRAVEL & TOURISM• EDUCATION• AGRICULTURE• AUTOMOTIVE• AVIATION• E-COMMERCE• ONLINE RETAIL SALES• ICT• INVESTMENT
BIG TRENDS
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
BIG BROTHERGOVERNMENT REFORM
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THE REFORMERS
XI JINPING LI KEQIANG ZHENG DEJIANG YU ZHENGSHENG
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
LIU YUNSHAN WANG QISHAN ZHANG GAOLI
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• STABILITY V. REFORM“We must deepen economic system reform by centering on the decisive role of the market…”
• REFORM IS NOW GOVERNMENT DRIVEN• KEY FACTOR IS STABILITY (EMPLOYMENT, INCOME, INFLATION)
• ANTI-CORRUPTION MEASURES— NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE
• DEEPENING ECONOMIC REFORM— CENTRAL DEEPENING-REFORM LEADING GROUP
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
THIRD PLENUM
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5 PRIVATE BANKS - TRIAL BASIS
+10M NEW URBAN JOBS
+100M RURAL MIGRANTS GRANTED URBAN RESIDENCY
“WAR ON POLLUTION” – Li Keqiang
6 PRIORITIES OF 20141. FOOD SECURITY 2. CUT EXCESS CAPACITY3. CONTROL LOCAL GOV’T DEBT 4. PROMOTE BALANCED GROWTH5. IMPROVE SOCIAL WELFARE 6. RAISE LEVEL OF OPENNESS
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
CPPCC & NPC SESSIONS 2014
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• LIBERALIZE THE COUNTRY’S INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SECTOR
• NEGATIVE LIST• 6 MAJOR SERVICE CATEGORIES
– Financial – Shipping & Logistics – Communications and Trade – Professional Services– Cultural Services – Social Services
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
SHANGHAI FTZ
Source: Free Trade Zone Report, U.S. Consulate, Shanghai
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
BIGTRENDS
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CHINA’S GDP
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
9.2%
10.4%
9.3%
7.8% 7.7%
GDP to be maintained at 7.5% growth through
2015
2014
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
(Target Growth)7.5%
Source: Trading Economics - National Bureau of Statistics of China
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TRENDSTRADE SURPLUS WITH U.S.: $318 billion, 2013
$156B28.9%
$2.2T29.6%
U.S. IMPORTS FROM CHINA
U.S. EXPORTS TO CHINA
U.S. WORLDWIDE
EXPORTS
Source: International Trade Administration
$368B-15.5%
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INCOME DISPARITY
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2,188
2,504 2,7263,033
3,806
657 755 817 9391,107
URBAN INCOMES ($)RURAL INCOMES ($)
Source: Trading Economics - National Bureau of Statistics of China
2012
3,962
1,276
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
2013
4,162
1,394
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GINI COEFFICIENT
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
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GROWTH OF DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA (USD)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1,6921,896
2,223
2,545
2,770
3,0823,517
3,854
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
2013
3,997 4,386
2014Source: Trading Economics - National Bureau of Statistics of China
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
URBANIZATION1B URBAN POPULATION, 2030
45M NEW URBAN JOBS – 12/5HUKOU REFORM• 0.5 – 1 million: gradually lift hukou controls • 1 – 3 million: partially lift hukou control • 3 – 5 million: hukou control determined in future• Over 5 million: government will “strictly control”
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
+70% CHINA REVENUES 2013>2012, BUT HARDER
TOP ISSUESRISING COSTSUNCLEAR REGULATORY ENVIRONMENTHR CONSTRAINTS
21% NO EXPANSION PLANS (majority minimal plans)
U.S. BUSINESS OUTLOOK
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BIGOPPORTUNITIES
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
15% ANNUAL INDUSTRY GROWTH
$810B INDUSTRY 2011-2015
40% RIVERS SERIOUSLY POLLUTED (20% TOXIC )
$6.3B SOIL REMEDIATION MARKET VALUE 2011-2015
25% PM2.5 CUT FROM 2012-2017Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection
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$527.6B EXPENDITURE IN 2013
$839.6B MARKET BY 2017
20% INCREASE IN PRIVATE HOSPITALS EACH YEAR
202M AGE 60+
100M+ NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASE
20% ANNUAL GROWTH PHARMA & MED TECH
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
+300M URBAN POPULATION BY 2023
10.76B FT2 NEW GREEN BUILD
20% NEW BUILDINGS BY 2015, GREEN
36M NEW APARTMENTS – 12/5
$158.7B CITY AND TOWN SEWAGE TREATMENT AND RENEWABLE CONSTRUCTION – 12/5
Source: International Trade Administration
GREEN BUILDING
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
1.52M VISITOR VISAS PROCESSED IN 2013
$6,486 CHINESE VISITORS PER TRIP
35% INCREASE IN CHINESE VISITORS, 2012-2013
29% OF ALL U.S. SERVICES EXPORTS TO CHINA
#6 IN VISITOR VOLUME
TRAVEL & TOURISM
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
235,597 CHINESE STUDENTS STUDIED IN THE U.S. 2012-2013
365,459 2014-2015 FORECASTED STUDENTS
246,000 STUDENT AND EXCHANGE VISITOR VISAS 2013
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
#1 EXPORT MARKET OVERTOOK CANADA 2011-2012
$25.9B 2013 (BULK COMMODITIES, POULTRY, PORK, TREE NUTS, DAIRY, WINE)
DOUBLED 2008-2013
18% GLOBAL U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 2013
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
21.98M UNITS SOLD, 1st COUNTRY 2013
23.8M UNITS, PREDICTED 2014
17,600 EVS 2013
3,038 PLUG-IN HYBRIDS 2013MANDATE EV FOR GVMT FLEET,TAXIS BJ & SH
6M HIGH-EMISSION VEHICLES REMOVED 2014
AUTOMOTIVE
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
12.2% TRANSPORT GROWTH RATE 2011-2020
+97 NEW AIRPORTS BY 2020
+5,200 ($670B) NEW LARGE PASS. AIRCRAFT 2012-2031
24% (227M) GLOBAL NEW PASSENGERS 2013-2017
19% GA GROWTH RATE 2011-2020
• CHINA-MANUFACTURED C919 & ARJ21
AVIATION
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
701M INTERNET USERS, CHINA, 2015
$210B REVENUES 2012
120% COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE SINCE 2003
302M ONLINE SHOPPERS CHINA V. 200M US
52% CONSUMER ELECTRONICS & APPLIANCES
27% APPAREL
E-COMMERCE
Source: Boston Consulting Group
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
CLOUD COMPUTING
CYBERSECURITY
BIG DATA
SEMICONDUCTORS
DATA SECURITY
CONCERNS
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U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
IN M
ILLI
ON
S O
F DO
LLAR
S
INVESTMENT IN GREENFIELD PROJECTS (IN $MIL) INVESTMENT IN M&A DEALS (IN $MIL)
CHINESE FDI IN THE U.S.
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CS CHINA ASSISTANCE
What the U.S. Commercial Service can do to help
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OfficeEmbassy/Consulate
22 cities5 GM offices>100 staff16 second tier cities
Beijing
Shenyang
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Guangzhou
Chengdu
Harbin
Tianjin Dalian
NingboNanjing
Qingdao
Wuhan HangzhouChongqing
Kunming
ZhuhaiShenzhen
Xiamen
Xi’an
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
Global MarketsCommerce offices throughout China
Changsha Fuzhou
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GET IN TOUCHContact us
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
U.S. Department of Commerce Email: [email protected]
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谢谢Thank You
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | U.S. Commercial ServiceU.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Global Markets
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QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
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