the outlook for automotive transmission technologies in · pdf filethe outlook for automotive...

The Outlook for Automotive Transmission Technologiesin China

Chengwu DuanTechnical Research Analyst, Asia

Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 2

Presentation Outline

• Background

• Market Development of Transmissions in China

• Technology Assessment of Automated Transmissions

• Outlook for Automated Transmissions in China

• Conclusions


Definition of Terminologies

• MT Manual transmission• AMT Automated manual transmission• AT Automated transmission including AMT, AUTOE,

CVTE, DCT and other non-manual transmissions• AUTOE Planetary automatic transmission• CAR Passenger cars• CVTE Continuous variable transmission• DCT Double clutch transmission• ICE Internal combustion engine• LCV Light commercial vehicles• LV Light vehicles (including cars and LCVs)


Engine25%

Body26%

Final Assembly21%

Chassis21%

Powertrain32%

Transmission7%

Background: Why Transmission?

* Source: R.M. Cuenca, L.L. Gaines, and A.D. Vyas, “Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Production and Operating Costs”, Center for Transportation Research, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois 60439, 1999

• Manufacturers: transmission represents a significant portion of manufacturing cost • Consumers: transmission equipment will be an important factor affecting purchasing

decision• Engine and transmission match is very important for fuel consumption, ride quality and

vehicle handling• Transmission: the next wave of R&D in China?

Manufacturing Cost Breakdown for a LV*


91%74% 67%

9%26% 33%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2002 2007 2012

AT

MT

Past, Present and Near Future of Transmission Market

• Despite cost competitiveness, high fuel efficiency and good sense of control, MT is losing ground to AT

• Automated transmissions have negligible penetration in LCV segment (<1%) and remain marginal in the long run

• Assuming business as usual, 33% of light vehicles (44% of passenger cars) will be equipped with automated transmissions by 2012


Brief Review of Manual Transmission

MT4

MT5

MT6

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Start of MT6*

End of MT4

* Major players include VW, Getrag, Aichi Machine, Aisin AI and Chery


Why Automated Transmissions?

Ever-congested metro areas

Fast urbanization

City residents’purchasing power

Increasing number of female drivers*^

*: According to Sinotrust, female car-owners rose from 20.3% in 2002 to 30.9% in 2006

^: From cnauto, automated transmission claimed second place amongst the most attractive options to female drivers

Xinjiang

Gansu

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Liaoning

Taiwan

Tibet

Sichuan

Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong

Fujian

Shandong

Hubei

HunanJiangxi

Hainan

Inner Mongolia

NingxiaQinghai

Hebei

Shanxi

HenanAnhui

Zhejiang

JiangsuShaanxi

Guizhou

Beijing

Tianjin

Shanghai

Chongqing


0

1

2

3

4

5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ions

A&B

C

D&E

Segment Distribution of Automated Transmissions

Penetratio

n to all se

gmentations

CAGR = 30%


Source: auto.howstuffworks.com

A Schematic Introduction of ATs

DCTCVTE

AUTOEAMT


Options of Automated Transmissions: AMT

1%1%00000000C-Seg

15%18%5%0000000B-Seg

84%81%95%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%A-Seg

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

• Resulting from plunge of Chery QQ in 2007

• Introduction of QQ6 and S-18 in 2008

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ions

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Volume Penetration


Options of Automated Transmissions: AUTOE

1%1%1%1%1%0000007

31%29%26%21%16%13%10%5%1%006

31%31%27%28%28%29%24%22%25%21%6%5

37%40%46%51%56%58%65%72%74%78%93%4

0000001%1%1%1%1%3

20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002No. of Gears

• Majority of automated transmissions

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Volume Penetration


Options of Automated Transmissions: CVTE

<1.5 litre28%

1.5~2.0 litre45%

>2.0 litre27%

<1.5 litre27%

1.5~2.0 litre62%

>2.0 litre11%

2007 2012

• Niche market player

• Mainly applied to engines <2000cc0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ions

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Volume Penetration


Options of Automated Transmissions: DCT

• Applicable to all segments

• Number of gears ≥ 6

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

A B C D E

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ions

0%

1%

2%

3%

Volume Penetration


Comparison of Structure and Mechanism

Actuation of double clutches and the pre-selected gear

sets

Change of the “effective” radius

of pulleys

Actuation of clutches and

brakes associated

with planetary

gears

Controls the clutch

operation and shifts the gears

through the control module

Gear Ratio Change Mechanism

Two wet or dry clutches

+Layshaft gear sets

Wet clutch (or torque converter)

+Pulley

+Metal belt (or

chain)

Hydraulic torque

converter+

Planetary gear sets

Shifting control module

+Manual

transmission

Key Components

DCTCVTEAUTOEAMT


Technical Features: A Subjective Rating in General

Consumer Manufacturer


Xinjiang

Gansu

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Liaoning

Taiwan

Tibet

Sichuan

Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong

Fujian

Shandong

Hubei

HunanJiangxi

Hainan

Inner Mongolia

NingxiaQinghai

Hebei

Shanxi

HenanAnhui

Zhejiang

JiangsuShaanxi

Guizhou

Beijing

Tianjin

Shanghai

Chongqing

Major AT Programs in China

R&D Activities of Domestic Manufacturers

AMT: FAW

AUTOE: Geely, Chery, Great Wall

CVTE: Geely, Chery, Sanming, Rongda

DCT: SAIC-Brilliance

Existing or Planned Manufacturing Facilities of Foreign Manufacturers

• AMT: Magneti Marelli

• AUTOE: Aisin AW, ZF, Shanghai GM, Honda, Antonov

• CVTE: Jatco, Punch

• DCT: Borg Warner


Analogous Comparison: Powerplant and ATs

CVTE ↔ Hybrid

DCT ↔ Diesel ICE

AMT ↔ CNG/LPG

AUTOE ↔ Gasoline ICE

In China

Technology ApplicationMarket PresenceSupporting Facilities


Analogous Comparison of Powerplant and ATs in China

Good with engine components production

Good with gear industryGood with long history of ICE

production

Good with long time MT production

Supporting Facilitiesin China

Majority of ICEsMajority of ATsVery low penetration

Very low penetration

Market Presence in China

Relatively matureRelatively matureSlight modification to ICE

Slight modification to MT

Technology Application in China

Gas EngineAUTOECNG/LPGAMT

Pair 2Pair 1


Analogous Comparison of Powerplant and ATs in China

Good with engine components production

Good with gear industry

Lack of facilities for battery, motor etc.

Lack of facilities for belt, pulley etc.

Supporting Facilities in China

Small but has potential

Small but has potentialLow penetrationLow penetrationMarket Presence in

China

New for clean dieselNewRelatively newRelatively newTechnology Application in China

Diesel EngineDCTHybridCVTE

Pair 4Pair 3


A Geographical Perspective

Diesel+

DCT

Gasoline+

AUTOEHybrid

+CVTE

Does this happen just by chance?

China?


China: Several Key Propositions

• No single winner for automated transmissions in the medium or long term

- Market: co-existence of foreign and domestic OEMs

- Technology: pros and cons for each type of automated transmission

- Consumer: diversified preferences and driving patterns due to large population of consumers living in widely different environments

• Closely follow the market and consumer preferences

• Development of technology know-how is a must

• In line with vehicle and engine strategy• Establishment of feasible business model

• Closely follow the market and consumer preferences

• Manufacturing localization and expansion

• Local R&D, if possible, is a big plus

Chinese Domestic ManufacturersForeign Manufacturers

• Then, the winning strategy:


Key Factors Affecting Domestic Manufacturers’ R&D Direction

☺☺☺Market

Acceptance

☺☺Technical Hurdles

☺☺*☺Fuel Efficiency

☺☺Application Limitations

☺☺☺Supporting Facilities in

China

DCTCVTEAUTOEAMT

In addition to their vehicle and engine programs, Chinese domestic manufacturers have to consider the following factors:

* Efficiency varies with the number of gears


Overall Assessment of ATs for Domestic Manufacturers

Rising Star: DCT

Cow: AUTOE Dog: AMT

Question: CVTE

★ The best suitability

★ Cost could be reduced with economies of scale

? Setup of supporting facilities

? Increase of torque capacity

High market share

Relatively steady growth

Х Limited penetration

Х Limited growth potential


Conclusions

• While manual transmissions will remain in majority in the short-term, automated transmissions continuously gain market acceptance at an increasing pace.

• Given the market complexity, there will be no single winner for automated transmissions in China even in the long term.

• In China, there is indeed similarity between AMT and CNG/LPG, AUTOE and gasoline ICE, CVTE and Hybrid, DCT and Diesel. Meanwhile, the latter 3 pairs also mate together in 3 major markets.

• For Chinese domestic manufacturers, DCT appears to be a very promising product in the long run.

Thank You!

Chengwu DuanTechnical Research Analyst, Asia

[email protected]

the outlook for automotive transmission technologies in · pdf filethe outlook for automotive...

Documents