aos presentation 2011-07-06
TRANSCRIPT
TD Securities
Unconventional Energy Conference
July 6, 2011
Forward-Looking Information and AdvisoriesThis presentation contains "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking information is included in this presentation with respect to, amongother things: estimates of reserves and resources and future net revenue associated therewith; forecast netbacks and the anticipated benefits thereof; anticipated timing associated with the phaseddevelopment of Alberta Oilsands Inc.'s ("AOS'") Clearwater, Hangingstone, Grand Rapids and Algar Lake properties (including anticipated timing for receipt of regulatory approvals, delineation, drilling,completion project plans, commencement of construction, first-steam, commencement of production and timing of stakeholder consultations); expectations of future production and bitumen productiongoals; the anticipated application of certain technologies to enhance production; funding requirements and capital expenditures associated with such development; achieving commerciality; futuredevelopment of AOS' conventional assets and its reserves and resource base; and general operational and financial performance in future periods.
With respect to forward-looking information contained in this presentation, AOS has made assumptions regarding, among other things: the future growth of AOS, operating costs; future prices for crude oil,natural gas, bitumen and refined products; AOS' ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations and to access existing credit facilities and capital markets to meet its future obligations; the legal andregulatory framework representing royalties, taxes and environmental matters where AOS conducts its business; and future economic conditions. Although the forward-looking information contained in thispresentation is based upon assumptions which management of AOS believes to be reasonable, AOS cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with this forward-looking information.
Forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties. A number of factors, many of which are beyond the control of AOS could cause actual results to differmaterially from the results discussed in the forward-looking information. Some of the risks that could affect the future results of AOS and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in theforward-looking information of AOS include: the need to obtain required approvals and permits from regulatory authorities; the impact of competition; compliance with and liabilities under environmentallaws and regulations; the uncertainties of estimates by AOS' independent consultants with respect to the company's reserves and resources; the volatility of crude oil, natural gas, bitumen and refinedproduct prices; economic conditions in Canada and globally; changes to royalty regimes and government regulations regarding royalty payments; risks associated with exploring for, developing, producing,processing, storing and transporting crude oil, bitumen and natural gas; geological, technical, drilling and processing problems; imprecision in estimating capital expenditures and operating expenses;imprecision in estimating the timing, costs and levels of production and drilling; imprecision in estimates of future production capacity, potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration anddevelopment projects or capital expenditures; and changes to regulations and legislation applicable to the Corporation and the interpretation thereof including tax and environmental legislation andregulations in the provinces of Canada in which AOS conducts its business. These and additional risks and uncertainties relating to the business and operations of AOS are described in detail in its mostrecently filed Annual Information Form, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Statements relating to "reserves" and "resources" are deemed to be forward-looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the describedreserves and resources, as the case may be, exist in the quantities predicted or estimated, and can be profitably produced in the future. "Contingent resources" means those quantities of petroleumestimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to becommercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. It is alsoappropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage. "Prospective resources" means those quantities ofpetroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective resources have both an associatedchance of discovery and a chance of development. It should be noted that reserves, contingent resources and prospective resources involve different risks associated with achieving commerciality. There isno certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources described in this presentation. Further, there is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources described inthis presentation will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources. The prospective resource estimates set forthherein have been risked for the chance of discovery but not for the chance of development and hence are considered partially risked estimates. If a discovery is made, there is no certainty that it will bedeveloped or, if it is developed, there is no certainty as to the timing of such development. In addition, the estimated future net revenues and values contained in this presentation do not necessarilyrepresent the market value of such reserves or resources.
In addition to the foregoing, investors are cautioned that this presentation contains forecasted netbacks. The forecasted netbacks represent AOS' revenue, less royalties and certain operating expenses. Theforecasted netbacks contained herein do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principals and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similarmeasures presented by other companies and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Management believes that forecasted netbacks are useful supplemental measures as they provide an indication ofthe ability of AOS to fund future growth through capital expenditures.
The forward-looking information contained herein is made as of the date of this presentation, and AOS assumes no obligation to update or revise it to reflect new events or circumstances, except asrequired by law. Because of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions inherent in forward-looking information, prospective investors in the securities of AOS should not place undue reliance on this forward-looking information.
The disclosure of barrels of oil equivalent ("boe") in this presentation may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ration of 6 mcf:1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversionmethod primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
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Corporate Overview
Alberta Oilsands Inc. (TSX-V:AOS) is a technically driven, high-growth energy company focused on creating sustainable value through the development of
oil sands resources
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Oilsands Leases
• 144.5 sections of high working interest land
MacKay River
Fort McMurray
Clearwater 2,820 MMB*
32 sections 100% WIGrand Rapids
Algar Lake 810 MMB*
51 sections 100% WI
Hangingstone 1,150 MMB*
38.5 sections 50% WI
18 sections 100% WI
5 sections 100% WI
350 MMBContingent
154 MMBContingent
Corporate Strategy
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Develop and produce bitumen using steam assisted gravity drainage technology and secure funding by strong financial and industry partnerships
Clearwater
Strategy• Convert resources to proved reserves
• Construct and produce from Clearwater Phase I (approximately $100 mm of incremental capital)
• Establish development partnerships for Phase II
Financing• Project funding (equity and debt) for Clearwater Phase I
• Joint venture or partner funding
Future • Clearwater Phase II – develop commercial operations targeting 25,000 barrels
per day
• Reduce funding requirements for future phases
• De-risk equity and debt funding for AOS
• Pursue technology alliances with suppliers and produce
Project Schedules
Application Filing
Target First Production
Projected Production(bbl/d)
Clearwater Phase 1 Jan 2010 2013 4,500
Clearwater Phase 2 2013 2016 25,000
Hangingstone 2013 2016 25,000
Grand Rapids 2014 2017 10,000
Algar Lake 2015 2018 25,000
TOTAL 89,500
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Acquire Land Deliniation Contingent Resource Reserves Production
Oil sands Value Creation
•Grand Rapids
•Algar Lake•Clearwater•Hangingstone
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The Market Cap vs. NAV Delta
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NAV (1) $ 661.1 million
Production
Project Build
Project approval
Monetization
Financing – Debt or JV
Market Cap (2) $ 43.2 million
1. NAV: $4.28 per share basic2. Current share price: $0.28 per share
547.0
89.9 15.0
5.1
4.1
Net asset value($661.1 million)
Clearwater HangingstoneLand (at cost) ConventionalWorking Capital
34.0
5.1 4.1
Market Cap ($43.2 million)
Oilsands Conventional Working Capital
Clearwater ProjectLow Pressure SAGD with Solvent Co-Injection
Clearwater: Approach and Keys to Success
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Fort McMurray Regional Airport
ClearwaterPlant
1. Operational integrity
Safety design, monitoring
and response plan
2. Confirm reservoir performanceProduction rate, SOR
3. Validate economics% Solvent retention
4. Commercial operationBuild full-scale 25,000 barrel per day commercial operation in Phase II
Confirm commerciality and demonstrate safety
Low Pressure SAGD with Solvent Co-Injection
Nexen SAGD:
1 barrel of oil /
6 barrels of water
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Average SAGD:
1 barrel of oil /
3 barrels of water
Clearwater:
1 barrel of oil /
1.8 barrels of water
Tilt Meter Monitoring Array
• 155 Tilt Meters provide continuous monitoring of reservoir steam pressure
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75% H2O Reduction– East Wind
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AOS Clearwater Regional Benefits
• AOS Clearwater Project will help fund FMAA Expansion
• Anticipate economic benefits to:
• Aboriginal firms
• Service companies
• Hospitality providers
• Local businesses
• Anticipate contributions to community identified priority projects
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AOS Clearwater Economic Benefits
• Temporary construction staff, including opportunity for local contractors & suppliers.
• Permanent locally-hired operational staff
• Expenditures to date approx. $30 million.
• Anticipated to be $150 million by project commissioning.
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• Operational expenditures anticipated to be $60 million annually, with 70% supplied locally.
Clearwater Phase 1 Economics
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$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
SAGD SLP-SAGD
20.19 20.19
11.23 11.23
3.02 3.02
9.75 9.00
5.22 3.76
9.65
42.34 34.90 Netback
Solvent Opex
Fuel Opex
Non-Fuel Opex
Royalties
WCS/ Realized Bitumen
WTI/WCS Differential
Operating Netbacks @ WTI US$ 89.00 (1)
(1) 2011 Ryder Scott Price Forecast
Clearwater Phase II
• 25,000 barrel per day commercial project
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Phase I
Phase II
Plant Site PHASE II
Well Pad
Satellite Hwy 69
CN Rail Terminal
InterPipe Bitumen Pipeline
T88T88
R7W4R8
R7W4R8
File: AOS Clrwtr_Phase_II.MAP Datum: NAD27 Projection: Stereographic Center: N56.64214 W111.15365 Created in AccuMap™, a product of IHS
Land Purchased in November 2010
Analog Reservoir Quality Comparison
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Property McKay Clearwater UnitsBitumen Gravity 8 8 APINet pay range 15-35 35-45 mReservoir depth 90-130 75-125 mBase of Clearwater shale (cap-rock) 86 64 mPorosity 32 32 %Permeability HZ 6.4 3.9 DarciePermeability vertical 3.4 2.9 DarcieSaturation 80 80 %Weight Bitumen 14 15 %Bitumen viscosity at T (res.) 1-3 mm 1.5 mm centiPoiseInitial Temp 7 6 C degreesInitial pressure 300-500 200-300 kPa
• Suncor Energy Inc.’s MacKay River SAGD project; widely recognized as a premier in-situ project, is a direct analogue to Clearwater based on reservoir characteristics; however, Clearwater West is over 10 meters thicker on average
• Clearwater reservoir compares favorably to existing SAGD projects on key measures
Environmental foot print
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Contact Information
Shabir Premji, Executive Chairman800, 350 – 7th Ave S.W.Calgary, AB T2P 3N9Tel: 403.263.6700Fax: 403.263.6702Email: [email protected]: www.aboilsands.ca