15 February 2019

Anticipating Future Skills –Gold Coast

Jobs Queensland

A voice for industry and the regions

- anticipate future skill needs

- dedicated engagement, research and

analytics capability

- workforce development and planning

- a conduit between industry,

Government and training

Anticipating Future Skills project

• Expert forum held November 2016 to co-design principles for developing a place-based approach to anticipating skills needs.

• Combination of scenario planning and economic modelling to 2022

• Baseline scenario developed utilising Queensland Treasury Budget forecasts

• Three plausible future scenarios to help manage future uncertainty

Scenario development

• In late 2017, workshops conducted across North, Central and Southern Queensland

• Focus on the impact of various scenarios on regional economy, industries and labour markets

• Feedback also sought via survey

• To increase technological growth such that average labour productivity of all industries in Queensland is 25 base points higher than the baseline each year between 2017-18 and 2021-22.

The Scenarios

•An increase in net interstate migration to Queensland of 30,000 beginning in 2018. International migration remains at 23,000 per annum over the forecast period.

• That the price of iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal falls 50 per cent from their respective baseline prices between 2017-18 and 2021-22.

SCENARIO ONETECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

SCENARIO TWOCHANGING WORKFORCE THROUGH MIGRATION

SCENARIO THREEEXTERNAL IMPACT

Model outputs

• Regional data – 15 SA4 Regions Brisbane SA4s amalgamated

• Industry data – ANZSIC Group (3 digit) 214 Industry Groups

• Occupation data – ANZSCO Unit Group (4 digit) 358 Occupation Unit Groups

• Qualification data – Australian Standard Classification of Education Level of Education (e.g. Bachelor degree) Field of Education (e.g. Food, Hospitality and Personal Services)

Gold Coast SA4 (ASGS Code 309), 2016

Testing and validation of draft outputs

• Stakeholders were presented with an overview of the draft modelling outputs

• Feedback was incorporated to ensure that results accurately reflect the realities of the current and future workforce

Employment across all scenarios, Gold Coast, 2017 - 2022

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

350,000

360,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Baseline Scenario One Scenario Two Scenario Three

Employment to 2022 across all scenarios, Gold Coast

311,007

344,776

345,055

353,228

344,179

Baseline 2017

Baseline 2022

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Jobs growth varies across regions (baseline scenario, 2017 – 2022)

16.2

10.9 9.7 9.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.3 5.73.6 3.2 2.1

-2.9

Ipsw

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Gol

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Mor

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Bay

- Nor

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Mor

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Bay

- So

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Suns

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Coa

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Que

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Tow

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Ca

irns

Toow

oom

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Brisb

ane

Wid

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Dar

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Dow

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Mar

anoa Fi

tzro

y

Mac

kay

Que

ensla

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utba

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(%)

24.521.6

14.911.811.511.511.4

10.99.8

9.48.8

8.48.07.9

7.46.9

4.03.1

-9.9-10.8

-15.0 -5.0 5.0 15.0 25.0

Information Media and TelecommunicationsMining

Health Care and Social AssistanceAgriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Professional, Scientific and Technical ServicesArts and Recreation Services

Administrative and Support ServicesEducation and Training

Other ServicesTotal

Accommodation and Food ServicesTransport, Postal and Warehousing

Retail TradeElectricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Financial and Insurance ServicesPublic Administration and Safety

ManufacturingConstruction

Wholesale TradeRental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Jobs growth varies across industries,(baseline scenario, 2017 – 2022)

Combined industries: 66.3% of total employment growth All other industries: 33.7%

Health Care and Social Assistance (30.4%)

Accommodation and FoodServices (8.9%)

Professional, Scientific andTechnicalServices (10.0%)

Retail Trade(9.4%)

Construction(7.6%)

Contribution to total jobs growth varies across industries (baseline scenario, 2017 – 2022)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Managers Professionals Techniciansand Trades

Workers

Communityand Personal

ServiceWorkers

Clerical andAdministrative

Workers

Sales Workers MachineryOperatorsand Drivers

Labourers

No. Employed 2017 (LHS) No. Employed 2022 (LHS) Growth % (RHS)

Jobs growth varies across occupations,(baseline scenario, Gold Coast, 2017 – 2022)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

No. Employed 2017 (LHS) No. Employed 2022 (LHS) Growth % (RHS)

A - ManagersB - ProfessionalsC - Technicians and Trades WorkersD - Community and Personal Service Workers

Jobs growth varies across occupations,(baseline scenario, Gold Coast, 2017 – 2022)

A B C D E F G H

E - Clerical and Administrative WorkersF - Sales WorkersG - Machinery Operators and DriversH - Labourers

Baseline Employment for largest occupation sub-major groups, 2017 to 2022

Occupation Sub-Major Groups No. employed in 2017

Change by 2022 (%)

Sales Assistants and Salespersons 24,064 10.0 Health Professionals 20,055 23.7 Specialist Managers 18,457 14.0 Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 18,254 11.4 Carers and Aides 18,064 25.2 Business, Human Resource and Marketing

Professionals 16,020 12.5

Construction Trades Workers 13,276 6.0 Education Professionals 13,077 12.5 Hospitality Workers 10,421 10.8 Cleaners and Laundry Workers 10,138 10.5

A more educated workforce(baseline scenario, Gold Coast, 2017 – 2022)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

PostgraduateDegree

GraduateDiploma and

GraduateCertificate

BachelorDegree Level

AdvancedDiploma and

AssociateDegree Level

CertificateLevel

No. Employed 2017(LHS) No. Employed 2022 (LHS) Growth % (RHS)

A more educated workforce(baseline scenario, 2017 – 2022)

Postgraduate

Graduate Diploma

Bachelor Degree

Advanced Diploma

Certificate I-IV

No post school qual.

29.4

18.9

17.7

16.4

11.0

0.3

27.3

16.6

15.4

14.1

8.6

-1.7

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00

5-year growth rate (%)

Gold Coast Queensland average

Employed persons by Field of Education, baseline scenario, 2017 – 2022

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

No. Employed 2017 (LHS) No. Employed 2022 (LHS) Growth % (RHS)

A - Society and CultureB - HealthC - Creative ArtsD - Management and CommerceE - Information TechnologyF - Food, Hospitality and Personal Services

A B C D E F G H I J K

G - Architecture and BuildingH - EducationI - Engineering and Related TechnologiesJ - Natural and Physical SciencesK - Agriculture, Environmental and Related Studies

Exploring the Data

Anticipating Future Skills report Industry and regional snapshots

Industry and regional snapshots

Jobs Queensland Website

Data tools: Regions

Future of Work

ZJ1

Slide 27

ZJ1 Slide 7 deleted and additional notes added to slide 6Zea Johnston, 6/02/2019

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