anoteontrendsinregionaltfp’shark.lib.kagawa-u.ac.jp/kuir/file/1654/20120327035236/... ·...

ーJO9－

SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP’

KazuhiroKUMO絨

Contents

lIntroduction

2AnalytiealModels

3Ⅰ）ata

4Results

5Condu血ngRemarks

Abstract ThispapereXaminedTFP gTOWth－rate di飴rentials across Soviet

regions and the percentage share OfTFP cont3・ibution toindustrial developmentbyre由On

TFPcanberegardedasanindicatorofteclm0logicaldevelqpment； hence，itmaybesupposedthathighTFPgrowthrateswouldbeobserved inadvancedareasHowever，SuChregionsasRussiaandtheBalt・icstates

’Thisstudywasfinanci！山ysupportedbytheYamadaPublicThst，SpecialResearchExpenses presentedbytheFacultyofbnomicsatKagawaUniversity，andaResear血Grantpresented bythePresidentof馳gawaUniversi吋鵬 Associate馳of旨ssorofRegiollalScience，Facultyof駄onomics，ⅩagawaUmiversity，J8Pan・Ⅰ

許ate叫aeknowledge hofMasahka万一両ita fbr h適評nerOllS eOmmentS，Sllg野Stions， eon血uousen00Wa評ment，皿dbelpIamh血btedtoProfSadayoshiOh別＝mdnofSbh・ i（丸正oT8bata払rtheifSug詐Sdons，eneOllragement，andassistanee

OLIVE 香川大学学術情報リポジトリ

2（フ00 －7J（トーーー香川大学経済学部研究年報 40

Showedratherlow TFPgrowth，WhereasthepercentageshareofTFP COntributiontogrowthintheseareaswaslarge”Thismaybeattriblltable totheequali2：ation－0riented Soviet governmentalpoliqy，Whichbrought about theintmduction of newly developed teclmology to peripheral regions．Onthe other hand，these developed regions werealready abundantin socialcapitalb11thadverylowpopulationgrowthrates； therefore，thesematerialinputsplayedonbTahmitedroleindevelopment processeshSl血／Ba址kstates、、h也isでeg甜d，tk』papersomewb8t Clari＆ed theine伍cient developnwnt pohcyimplemented during the Sovietera

1．Introduction The Sovietindustryis characterized by the co－eXistence of a high

Capitalk）utPutratioandalowoutputgrowthrate（SeeFigurelandThblel）

Soviet extensive growth was not so diffbrentfrom EastAsian extensive

growth duringthe period1960－1990；howevenitwas unusualthat Soviet

growthdeclinedwhileanextensivegrowthstrategywasbeingimplemented

四asterlyandFischer，1995；SeeThblel）Comparativelyinthe USA，the

CaPitahutput ratiowasalmoststable afterthe1950s（Sakai，2000，P64），

Whichimphcitly showsthat technologicaldevelopment morethan0脆et

decreasingreturnStOSCaleintheUmitedStates

Inthispaper，re由onaldiffbrentialsintotalfactorproductivity CTFP）

acrossSovietregionsarediscussed」Aspresentedinpreviousanalyses（Kurno，

1999a，2001；See Figure2），Sovietindustries concentratedin European

regionsoftheUSSRthroughouttheSovieterahThereprdbdbけweremany

reasonsbehindthisphenomenon：geOgraPhicalconditions（elimate，distance

丘om Moscow，the capitalofthe Soviet Union），m山tary or po】icy－based

COnSiderations，high1aborturnOVerrateSin鉦ontierre由ons，andothers

In this paper，We COnCentrate Our analysis on the examination of

diLrbrentialsintheroleofTFPineconomicgrowthacrossSovietregions Of

COurSe，TFPissomethinghkeablackbox，butithasbeenacceptedthatthis

measure renectsthelevelof teclm0logyin speci丘c a托aSThe word


SovietRegionsRevisited： A NoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP ーJJノー

‘technologyhasabroadsenseinthiscontextInsomecases，itistreatedasa

PrOXyforthecontributionofR＆Dinvestmenttoeconomicgrowth；inothers，

Solowresidualsareregardedasindicatorsofexternaleconomies，mOnOpOlistic

power，WO止ingratesofoperation，andsoonStatisticalinadequaciescanalso

Figurel：NetMaterialProducts／Capital ご＝ L L ＿

一■－・－ 1■ ■℡・－1L㌧㌢一且＼

鼠＿、

÷亡SNMP／K

．＿・一．－しANMP／K

－6■・・しINMPノK

↓BENMP／K

・－・▲●－ UKNMP′K

・・・・血・・RUNMP′K

－■ゝ・・・MOしNMP′K

－・■：－ KANMP′K

－－・》；一丁ÅNlJP／K

－－・鸞：－ KINMP′K

－＞■ TUNMP／K

－－J■ ■UZNMP／K

叩…“、■伸一′ SUトIMP′K

÷ARNuP′K

－－＞く－AZNIJP′K

…※ハ GENMp／K

‾■一事・－－－－ヽ甘－－一一一－一瞥■ － ≠－・、手く－〆・－ ≠一塁－・

×－一事「・－→←一灯

ーーーーI －l－‥l－l －●＿

1970 tβTl1972 1973 187・11975 1976 1877 t978 1978 1980 198119¢2 1883 198d 】9さ5 1886 198T 1888 】989

DataSource：WbrldBankEstimation（ealculatedbytheauthor）

1もblel：SovietGrowthData，1928－1985伽IperCent）

CIAEstimate SovietO瓜cialStatistics

GNP 1928．85

1928－41

1950s

1960s 1970s

1980－85

CapitalGrowth

1928－66 1960．81

QU 9 1 1 3 り一

見U 3 0 7 5 3

1 1

3二ぷ 6 ウ】 7 2

4 5 5 3

Source：FiseIler（1994）


ーヱヱ2－香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 2（フ00

Figure2：IndustrialOutputperCapita，in10rubles（SourCe：Kumo，2001）


SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP ーエム㌻－

playacriticalroleinTFPcalculations，eSPeCialbrincross・COuntryStudies

ParroandSala－i－Martin，1995）Howevenbymeansoflong－termanabTSisofa

specific area，We may be able toidentifysome realisticfeatures of technologicaldevelopment（Solow，1957）

Asshowninthepreviousanalysis，reglOnSnearertOMoscowaremore

productivethanOthersintheformerSovietUnionare（Kumo，1999a：Se

AppendixA）TheexistenceofalargemarketinMoscow（SeeFigure3）and

accessibility to the politicalcenter ofthe Soviet government may have

attractedindustrialnrms to thislocationIn this paper，interr（料onal

diffbrentialsintheeconomicdevelopmentprocessintheformerSovietUnion

wereinvestigated鈷・Omthepointofviewofproductivity


－JJ4－香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 ご（フ（光フ

First，anabTticalmethodsareeq）1ainedinthenextsection．Thedatasets

utilizedintheandysisareshowninSection3StatisticalproblemsinSoviet

O臨cialdata arealso mentionedlThe estimatedpercentage share ofTFP

COntributiontoindustrialdevelppmentandTFPgrowthratesareexaminedin

Section4hThen，inthe丘nalsection，aSummaryandconcludingremarksare

PreSented，andsomeproblemsincludedinthisanabTSisareintroduced

2．AnalyticalModel＄ Theoutputisdeterminedbythecapital，1abor，andproductivitygrowth

A conventionalgrowth－aCCOunting equation can be derived from the

neoclassicalproductionfunctionl

Yt＝F（在，均，㍉），（1）

WhereAisthelevelofteclm0logyandKandLarecapitalstockand

quantityoflabor，reSpeCtively Di餓汀entiatingEquation（1）with respectto

timeanddividingal1thetermSbyY，WeCanget

Y IFAA A ☆－＋

A

Thedotoveravariablerepresentsitstimederivative」Iftechnological

ChangesoccurinaHicks－neutralmanner，thenitcanbeshownthatF仏，K，

L）＝Af（K，IJ）andqA4M）＝1，Iflaborandcapitalarepaidtheirmarginal

products，thatis，ifFE〒rentalpriceofcapitalandFL＝WageS，byrearranging，

1他誌dedvadon払nowsBa汀0（199＄）血dQlamiefd（1999）


SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP

WeWOuldgetthegrowthequation：

－JJ5一－－－－

A Y K L －－αお－－β☆－（3）

A Y K L

BasedonEquation（3），WeCalculateSolowresidualsinSovietre由onsby

non－eCOnOmetricmethods，aSisusualinstudiesconcerningTFPgrowthrates

Thelabor share estimatedinthe previous study（Kumo，1999a）is

arOundO565，Whichisaverysimi1arresult丘omthatofpreviousWestern

Studiessuch asMcCants（1988；eStimatedlaborshare＝050），Rutgaizer

（1970；060），Bergson（1979；058），andSakai＠000；0．52）InouranaJysis，

estimatedlaborshareandcapitalshareareO57andO34，reSpeCtivelyHence，

itcanbeacceptedthattheSovietindustryhasCobb－Douglas－tyPeteChnology，

and，inthefonowinganalysis，1aborshareisassumedtobeO6fora皿regions

3．Data TheindustrialoutputandgovernmentalinvestmentestimatedinKumo

＠001）wereusedintheanalysisforthewholeperiodof1940－1985Industrial

1aborpowerstatisticsineachUnionrepublicfrom1940to1970andin1975， 1980，and1985wereobtained丘・Omtheofacialstatisticalyearbook，伽血oe

属五omt叩ぷSS芹1触（National Economy of the USSR），and

乃励ostSSSHl謝qndustry ofthe USSR）‖Asfor the analysis regardingthelaterperiod，1970－1985，thedataestimatedbytheWorldBank

四astedyandFischer，1996）werealsoutihzedforcomparison

Asis wellknown，the Soviet terminology conceming statisticsis

di飴rent鉦omthatusedinWらsterncountrieshInaddition，COmPutational

errorsarequitelarge，pOSSibbryieldingunre】iable丘gures Thereasonforour


ーヱヱ6－香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 ご（フ（）0

use of Soviet o亀cial data should be clariaedFirst，in this kind of

interregionalstudy，Only relative evaluation across re由onsis required；

therefore，eXamin血g on an absolute scaleis not necessary Second，

estimations oftheformer Sovietindustry are now being carried out by

ⅥもsternreSearChers（mboniwa，1996，a，b），Which wouldsubstantiate the

needforusingo瓜cialdatainthepresentstudyThemostcritical鈷ctoristhat

databyregionsinRusSia，thelargestrepublicintheUnion，haveneverbeen

eolleeted

InSovieto臨cialstatistics，nObranch－basedcapitaunvestment丘gures

by repubhc have been reported；therefore，inthe anaけsisusing ofncial

Statistics，We utili2：ed the totalgovernmentalinvestmentineach Union

republic／re由oninRussiaasaproxyforcapitalstockintheindustrialsector

4．Resdts EstimatedresultsareshowninFigure4，Table2andFigure5，鴨ble3

TheanalysisinFigure4／Thble2isbasedonWorldBankestimationdata

（UnionRepublic－based），andFigure5／Table3showstheresultsaccordingto

OureStimationdataobtainedfromSovietofacialstatistics（resultsforUnion

RepubhcsandregionsinRusSia）Fordetails，SeeAppendixC（funtdbles）

PercentageShareofTFPContributiontoGrowthqigure4，Figure5，

Thble2・a，andThble3・a）

InFigure4／Thble2－a（UnionRepublic－basedWbrldBankdata，1970－

1984），theroleofTFPindevelopmentprocessesshowsweakemingtrendsin

almostal1republicsAmongthem，Unionrepub】icsshowingacomparatively

higherpercentage share ofTFPcontributionto growthare：Slavic States

但ussia，Ukraine，BeloruS），BalticStates，andCaucasus仏zetb扇jan，Amenia，

Georgia）AdvantageOuSlocation（easieraccesstotheUnioncapital，Moscow，


SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTr・endsinRegionalTFP ーエ㍗乙－－－

PercentageShareOfTFPContributiontoGrowth：EstimationResults

Tbble2－a 恥ble3＿a

舟meni白兎訝b軸n 融和ia ルmenia 彪8も卸n Ge叩i8 0507

0238

0442

07鵡

0294

0．33

1970－74 0454 0605 0588

1975．79 0255 0444 04舅

1980．84 0175 －0206 0178

1950・59 0448 0526

1960・64 ・0078 0222

1965－69 0308 0345

1970t74 0665 0618

1975・79 0引6 0526

1980・84 0．425 0．211

Kazdくhstan Tazhikist訂1Turkmenistal Kazd（hstan Tazhikldan Turkmenistan

1950－59 0034 0179

1960・69 0187 －021

1965－69 0472 0403

1970．74 059 0433

1975・79 0243 0363

1980－84 0．299 0．126

1970－74 0328 ・0388 0135

1975・79 ・1439 －1107 －3318

198084 ・1979 ・2446 ・1726

36刃411798 0 3 4 5 2

0 0 0 0 1 Ky唱iz由n U虚戚面訂 Ky唱izla 〕虚鋏is伽

1950j9 0259 ・0048

1960づ4 0226 ・0067

1965．69 0443 ・025

1970－74 0644 0466

1975．79 0509 0112

1980．84 0．462 0．531

1970－74 －0146 0433

1975．79 0189 －0438

1980・84 －0452 －0881

Edonia し仙u訓ia L如南 L肋uania Latvia Estonia 122191鋸92亜 4 24 50 2

0 0 0 0 0

1950・59 04粥 0459

1960－64 0365 0085

1965．69 0532 0324

1970－74 0741 0595

1975－79 0605 0732

1980．84 0．449 0287

1970．74 0357 052 04劣

1975．79 0245 0349 0371

1980．84 －0542 ・054 －0192

1950・59 0281

1960づ4 0203

1965－69 0055

1970・74 0429

1975・79 0549

欄阻朗 0．497

1970・74 ・2156

1975・79 0223

1980－84 ・0225

Rusda U摘ー冶 Beb¶S Russは ∪血腫訂1741Ⅳ駿∞ 4 2 3 6 5 5

nV nV O O O O

1950＿59 0374 04訪

1960－64 0428 0409

1965－69 0471 0421

1970．74 0411 0559

1975＿79 0568 0436

1980－84 0494 0582

1970－74 0471 0472 035

1975，79 0374 016 0052

1980．84 0141 ・0224 －0472


ーJJき－香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 ご（丸互）

PercentageShareofTFPContributiontoGrowth：EstimationResults

l払ble3－a（Continued：RegionsinRussia） Eur叩さRus由

NorthW感＊ Cen廿al＊ Voba〟yad（aCen廿alBbdくEarth Voba NdhCaL闇SuS〕ral＊ 0459 0577

0775 0608

0568 0666

0481 0684

044 0531

0753 0729

0512 0525 0498

09封 0564 0593

063 0813 0543

Sib81aandF訂E茶t

Figure4h Percentage Share ofTFP Contribution to Growth：Estimation

Results（WbrldBankData）

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＝◆－－Aヱeぬ8紬n

◆Georgは

↓Kaz8khsbn

－「生一丁azhi帖sbn

－・△一丁ulkmni由n

－「生一 Kyrgizi8

－△一 ∪ヱbe毎由n

÷Lithuani8

一日・一山tvi8

‥甲・－Esbni8

十M01dova ↑Belorus

・－○－Russi8

‥○・・Uk帽ine


SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP 【JJさL

Figure5Percentage Share of TFP Contribution to Growth：Estimation

Results（0飽cialData）

Closenesstothe East Europeanmarket，andlargeportsinthe Balticand

NorthSeas）mayhaveresultedinhigherindustrialproductidtyinSlavicand

BalticStatesTheexistenceofawell－educatedlaborpoolandacomparatively

high1ydevelopedinfrastruCtureintheseareasalsohadsomee鮎cts

Caucasusstatesmayhaveshownthesecondhighestpercentageshareof

TFPcontributiontogrowthThsmaybeasurprisingresult，COnSideringtheir

distanCe丘omMoscowandthecomparativelyunderdevelopedsocialcapitalin

theseareasHowever，theimportantrOleTFPhasplayedinCaucasusstates

maybeattributabletotheirproductvariety Caucasusareasareabundantin

naturalresources，eSpeCial1ycrude o止Resource－Orienteddevelopmenthad

beenoneofthemostremarkablefeaturesoftheSovietgovernment，anditis


ーヱ20－－香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 2（フ00

naturalthatnew（maiulyimported）teclm0logymayhfrVebeenconstantly

introducedintheseperipheralareas

InFigure5／Thble3－a（estimationbasedono亀cialstatistic⇒，absolute

Valuesarequitedi鮎rent鉦omtheresultsinFigure4／Thble2－aObtainedby

usingWらsternestimationdata Statisticalerrorscont血1edinSovieto瓜cial

datamayhavehadahefEbctInagreementwithpreviousstudies，CaPital SharewasaroundOh4intheSovietindustryandthisassumptionregarding Capital＾aborsharedidnotchangeinthisanalysishHoweveち0nlynearahalf

Ofgovernmentalinvestmentwasspent ontheindustrialsector；thus，the

percentageshareofTFPcontributiontoindustrialdevelopmentmayhave

beenoverestimated

AlthoughthedatausedinFigure5／Thble3－aarequite血鮎rent，the

PerCentageShareofTFPcontributionshowsdecreasingtrendsaaerthe1970s，

WhichcanbeseenascomparableresultswiththoseinFigure4InEuropea areas ofRussia，TFP contribution didnot weaken even aaerthe1970s，

indicatingthepositivee鮎ctsofindustrialconcentrationintotheseregions

From1950sto1964，theroleofTFPineconomicgrowthwasnotcritical，

butitincreasedduringthesecondhalfofthe1960sKosygin，s2reformS，Which

Wereimplementedinthemid－1960，s，introducingself・SuppOrtingaccounting

SyStemS，eXPanSionofpercentageofrevenuesreservedto丘rms，reWardforthe

COmPletionofplannedindices，andsoon，mayhaveincreasedproductivity

Afterthe1970s，theresultsobtained鉦omourestimationusingSoviet

O伍cialstatistics（Figure5）areambiguous，butWbrldBankdata（Figure4）

ClearlyshowdecreasingtrendsThisdiscrepancymayalsobeattributableto

OuruSageOfUSSRofncialstatistics Recalculatingthedatabyassuminga

CaPitalshare＝060rO17，Sovieto凪cialdataalsoshowdecreasingtrendsinthe

2He took theinitiadvein Sovietsoci81reforms atthebe由nningofBrezlmevperiod Gorbachev’sPerestroikaiso鮎nmoreintenselycridcizedthan払sygin，sre丘〉rmS


SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP －J2J－

PerCentage Share ofTFPcontributionto growthafterthe1970s，aSimi1ar

resulttothe one obtainedinthe analysisusingⅥもsterneStimation data

（resu止sarenotpresentedbere）

ThepercentageshareofTFPcontributiontogrowthwasthelargestin

Slavic，Baltic，andCaucasusstates．SlavicandBalticstateswerethemost

advanced areasinthe Soviet Union Socialoverhead capitalanda well－

educatedlaborpoolmayhavebeenthemostabundantintheseregionsAtthe

Sametime，POpulationgrowthratesinthesealreadydevelopedareaswere

Verylow，andthegrowthratesofcapitalstockmayalsohavebeenlowbecause

OfSoviet equahzation policy These factsmust have weakenedthe role of

laborhapitalstockgrowthindevelopmentprocesses

Insummary，highpercentagesharesofTFPcontributiontoindustrial

developmentareobservedintheSlavic，Baltic，andCaucasusstates，andthis

phenomenoncouldbeexplainedbyhighproductivityinducedbytheirlarge

ma止et／desirablelocation（SlavicandBalticstates）orpreferableproduct

Variety／prioritydevelopmentsystemsimplementedduringtheSovietera

TFPGrowthRatesCrable2－bandThble3・b）

Insomea印eCtS，OurreSultsarealmostcomparablewiththeprevious

OneSShowninFigure4，Figure5，Table2－a，andTbble3－ahTFPgrowthrates

decreasedinauregions鉦om1950sto1964butrecoveredinthesecondhalfof

the1960s，WhichmayhavebeenduetoKosygin’sreformscitedabovehA鮎r

that，TFPgrowthratescontinuouslydecreased

However，SeVeralcriticalpointsremainunClearHighTFPgrowthareas

areobservedinre由onsotherthanRussiainthe1970－1979totalOhble3－b）

Ontheotherhand，thepercentage shareofTFPcontributiontoindustrial

growthwasthe highestinEuropean areas of Russia（Table3－a）This，

however，Canbeexplainedinthefo11owingway


ご（）（）（）香川大学経済学部研究年報 40

TFPGrowthrates：Est血1ationresults

－J22－

1もble2＿b Table3＿b

舟n裾nia 彪e巾軸n 鎚明朗 ARMEN仏克8もdjan GEORG肌柑70－74 0229 0259

1975－79 0118 0200

1980－84 0059 0015

0305 1950．59

021 1960－64

0081 1965－69

1970－74

1975－79

1980－84

0968 0552 0754

－0004 0098 008

02（裕 0124 0208

0317 0315 0329

0233 0234 0098

0．142 0．07 0．103 Kazdくhstanlbdhikistan Trukmenistan Kazd（hstan 171DGIK TURKMEN

1970－74 0158 ＿0023

1975－79 －0008 ．0046

1980・84 0063 0191

0121 1950－59

0086 1960づ4

0109 1965．69

1970・74

1975・79

1980・84

0073 0333 0413

0067 －0037 0011

0246 0207 0178

0248 0179 0207

0045 0104 0103

0．047 0．028 ．0108 Kirgi由〕加療融訂 Ki唱iz 〕血威ist訓

1970－74 －0033 0276

1975－79 009 ．0053

1980－84 0069 0141

1950j9 0488 ．0062

1960－64 013 ．0021

1965－69 0327 0044

1970－74 0339 0246

1975－79 014 0026

1980・84 0．112 0．166

Lihuania Latvia Estonia ESTONIA Lrru LATOV帆 1970－74 0け2 0222 0192 1950－59 ‖73 2013 1085

0197 0049 01帽 0234 0204 0255

0291 0288 0187

014 0191 0199

0．065 0074 0044

1975－79 0127 0106 0113 1960＿64

1980－84 0042 ・0001 0026 1965＿69

1970イ4

1975－79

1980－84

1970－74 0074

1975－79 0085

1980－84 021

1950－59

1960－64

1965・69

1970・74

0949

0158

0057

024

1975・79 0169

1980－84 0．136

Be加us Russほ ∪摘ne Russ椅〕摘ne Bebus 1970－74 0317 02 0127 1950・59 068 0941 1314

01幻 0202 0112 0208 0189 0224

015 0249 0373

0151 0073 0214

0078 0125 01班

1975イ9 0183 0048

1980－84 0041 ．0018

0029 1960づ4

009 1965J69

1970・74

1975・79

1980－84



TFPGrowthRates：EstimationResults

Thble3－b（Continued：RegionsinRussia）

一J2 ト

Eu「叩aRusga

NdhWest Cbn廿81 Voba－Vyad（a Cen廿alBbdくEalh Voba Nor（hQ）uCaSuS Urd 03‡沿 0629 0297 0420

0114 0101 0129 0098

0151 0102 0097 0060

1970．79 0360 0333 0399

1980・84 0150 0087 0141

1985．89 0094 0122 0087

Sj血aandF訂East

WestSiberia EastSiberia NolthWest

1970－79 0282 0431 0243

1980－84 0025 0120 0088

1985－89 0110 0064 0028

TheinterregionalequaLzationpolicyimplementedintheconstructionof Soviet socialismforcedthe government toinvestand develop peripheral regionsNew construCtion materials，Which embody newly developed technologywerelnputinCentralAsiaorotherunderdevelopedareasThis resultedinhighTFPgrowthratesintheperipheries，but，atthesametime，it

loweredTFPgrowthincomparativelyadvancedEuropeanregionsCThble3－b）

Lookingatindustrialoutput growthrates（SeeTable3－aand3－bin

AppendixC），duringthe1950s，CentralAsianStateSgreWrathermoreslowly

comparedwithSlavicandBalticstateshFromthebeginningofthe1960sto the丘rst halfofthe1970s，howeventhe“ⅥrginLand Program”1ed by

I仏ruShchevorotherstrategicdevelopmentpolicieswereimplemented，and

industrialgrowthratesinCentralAsi8LrapidlyincreasedThen！theproblems wouldbetheloweredgrowthratesoftheRussianFederation，Whichoccupied vastareasoftheSovietUnion，andthoseoftheUSSRasawhole（SeeTbblel）

Thismayhaveinducedthe SovietgovernmenttOChangeits development policyfromequaLzation－0rientedtoe瓜ciency－0rientedinthemiddleofthe

1970s，aSpreSentedindetai1inKumo（1999b，SeeAppendixB）


香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 20α）－J24－

5．ConcludingRemarks ThispaperexaminedTFPgrowth－rate血鮎rentialsacrossSovietre由ons

andthepercentagesllareOfTFPcontributiontoindustrialdevelopmentby reglOn

TFPcanberegardedasanindicatorofteclm0logicaldevelopment；hence，

it may be supposedthat highTFP growthrates wouldbe observedin advanced areash However，SuCh regions as Russia andthe Baltic states showed ratherlow TFP growth，Whereasthe percentage share of TFP contributiontogrowthintheseareaswaslarge Thismaybeattributableto theequalization－0rientedSovietgovernmentalpolicy，Whichbroughtaboutthe

introductionofnewlydevelopedteclm0logytoperipheralregions”Ontheother

hand，thesedevelopedregionswerealreadyabundantinsocialcapitalbuthad verylowpopulationgrowthrates；therefore，thesematerialinputsplayedonly

alimitedroleindevelopmentprocessesinSlavic／BalticstatesInthisregard，

thispapersomewhatclari＆edtheinefficientdevelopmentpolicyimplemented dudngtheSodetera

Ontheotherhand，theanalysispresentedinthisnotecontainsseveral

criticalproblemsthatcannotbeignored：

1）Governmentalinvestmentdataare・uSedasaproxyforcapitalstodくhThe

amOuntOfinvestmentcan且uctuateasaresultof丘nancialcircumStanCeS

experiencedbythe government Theuse Ofcapitalstock datais・if

possible，mOredesirable

2）Assumptions regarding with capital／1abor share also are very

problematicCapitalshareisassumedtobeidenticalacrossreglOnS

3）Thekn由or臨etorstbata鮎etTFPgroⅥrthrates甜einnowayelad鮎d；

weoulyo鮎rourbestestimation8Inaddition，industrialconcentrationis

3AlthoughthecorrelationbetweenTFPgrow払ratesineachre由onandvariousfhctorsis ede山ated，nOαidede飴etisobseⅣedこhence，tIlereS山b肝enOtpreSentedllefe


SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP －J2トー

notalw？ySdeterminedbyTFPgrowth－ratediffbrentials

In this regard，the appropriateness of the data used must be

reconsideredCapitalflowdatamaybeusedtoestimatecapitalstockdata； then，theproductionfunctionofeachregionmaybeestlmatedindividual玩so

Capital／1abor sharecouldbe calculatedforeach region；丘na皿y，national

economy－basedanalyses，ratherthanindustry－basedones，may訂VeClear－Cut

resultswhenexaminingfactorsa鮎ctingTFP

There】iabilityofonginaldatashouldalsobere－eXaminedAnalyses

basedeitheronWbrldBankestimation dataoronSovieto凪cialdatashow

ambiguousreSultsAslongasSovietre由onaleconomyisanalyzedonthe

basisofo瓜cialstatistics，reCalculation ofdatamaybeindispensdble，aS

previ0usStudieshaveshown（Bergson，1979；McCants，1983；Eastedyand

Fiscller，1995；Eseoe，1991）

Refbren（）eS

●Barro，RJ（1998），N，teSOn伽wtbAccouL2dn8；NBERWo止ingPaper

6654，Jub1998

・Barro，R”J”．andXSala－i－Martin，（1995），Ebonomib伽wth，McGraw一報】ユ

・Bergson，A”（1979），Notesonthe ProductionFunctioninSovietPostwar

IndustrialGrowth，ehzLmalof’CbDPamd’veEbt∽朗ユ上垣vo13，pp116－126

・Easter転W，andSFischer（1995），The Soviet Economic Deche，乃e

閥班足助刀ゑ肋8血と励房占叫VO19，No3，pp341－371

・Escoe，GM（1991），励mdr5bl万占f血血g£乃嵐J伽Ⅳ≠血・A助成血

RmctimAn亜扇島毎′月ねncband蜘unpubhshedPhD．Dissertation，

OhioStateUniversity，1991

・Fajnzylber，P，andD，Lederman（1999），肋omiと肋sand7btalhctw

伽血d房少αりⅣ班血上8血Am由ぬa刀d虎e（なカ飽田ちJ抑－ガr血

軸血ぬJ∧bte，WbrldBankWbrkingPaper2114，M叩1999


ご（）り（）香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 －J26－

・Fischer，S（1994），Russia andthe Soviet Union：Ⅵ1en and Now，The

7hz2SIdbnin励stem戯叩e点由tructzHihgvd，1，TheUniversityofChicago

Press，PP221－257

・Ghani，E，andVSuri（1999），hvducd’Tjb，伽wtb，C＊ね1AαumZLLgdbn，

∂刀d娩e励皿血逝g励c如rr励me血駅Ⅵタ血m腸句タ扇由，WbrldBankⅥb止iI唱

Paper2252，December1999

・Kuboniwa，M（1996a），∧なdbnal血cweih蝕tI柑rCbntzdAsjb，Institute

ofEconomicResearch，HitotsubashiUniversity，DiscussionPaperD96－6，June

1996

・Kuboniwa，M（1996b），肋omjbGzvwthjh蝕twwRusslムJjおtihadtq

GDE：Institute ofEconomicResearch，HitotsubashiUniversity，Discussion

PaperD96－10，November1996

・Kumo，K（1999a），IndustrialIJOCation and Regional Productivity

DiffbrentialsintheUSSR：EstimatingtheProductionFunction，Annabofthe

A段卯dム出血点灯点u戚白月∂刀d励g古物朗刀励打d由vol」27，pp92－101，Apr

1999

・Kumo，K（1999b），軸lぬ出血jお曲加あ打出00加地e∽∬獄丁乃血e・厳粛由

A乃擁よ00血ね酢と血血物びム〟ね刀物出血血塊eぷフ房b≠拙血，Wbrhng

Paper No29，Angust1999，Institute of Economic Research，Kagawa

University，Japan

・Kum0，K（2001），SovietIndustrialI，OCation：EstimatingIndustria10utput

by Re由on，Annak o｛肋omjcShdi由Institute ofEconomic Research，

KagawaUniversity，VOl40，pp67－108

・McCants，B．E（1983），An Bhz20mettjb Shdvo｛SbTjbthdustzy毎′

RepubDb and物bT Bhnch o｛hdustzγ1961－1卿unpublished PhD

Dissertation，DukeUniversity

・RutgaizenV（1970），TheRelationshipbetweenFixedCapitalandLabor

Poweち加地g正月如血ねDeeember1970，pp3－21

・S丘血血，K（2000），肋α血b伽融点刀d乃d∽拗虎打刀el如即よ血塊e


SovietRegionsRevisited： A NoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP ーJ27－

tLSStl（Soren no Keizai－Seichou to Gijutsu－Shimpo），Seibundo，Tbkyo¢n

Japanese）

・Solow，RM（1957），TbchnicalChangeand the Aggregate Production

Function，1bTj占wofEbonomiagand蝕dよ毎volh39，Pp．312－320

・Ybung，Ah（1992），AThleofTⅣOGties：FactorAccumulationandTbchnical

ChangeinHongKongandSingapore，inNZm腸avecvnoDdtngAm2ual199＆

以anchard，0J，andS Fischer，eds，Cambridge，MA：TheMITPress


－J2占トー香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 2（フα）

AppendixA：EstimationofProductionFunction（Kumo，1999a）

Here，a Cobb－Doudas production technologyis assumed，and the

equationestimatedfortime－Seriesdataof17yearstakesthelogarithmicform

Becausebothinvestmentandindustria】outplltdataarea4justedtoconstant

1985prices，andata（15republicsX17years＝255）arepooledTbexarninethe

difhrences between each republic，a dummy variableisintroducedIn

addition，thedistanCebetweenMoscowandthecapitalcityofeachrepublicis

introducedasaproxyfortheprimacyofEuropeanregions，ie，POpulation／

marketsizeoraccessibility丘）rlaborpoo山1g，etC”Forsimplicity，itisassumed

thatthedistancevariableentersthisfunctionlmeadyTrendvariablesare

alsousedbecausetime－Seriesdataarepooled First，afunctionwithoutthe

distanCeVariableisestimatedtoexaminethee鮎ctsofma止etaccessib山tyon

productivitydifEbrentialsThus，theestimatedequationswillbe asfo1lows，

andtheresultsusingthestepwiseteclmiqueareshowninThblel‥

bgQ＝A＋郎ogいβ如好＋βボe如1‖4＋β押測d＋β卿孤d叩此d＋e，（り

b拍＝A＋βわ払＋β如ポ＋β8恥由皿1．．1。＋β糎d＋β恥血叩肝d＋β海側血Ⅳ代，悶

Where Q＝grOSSindustrialoutput Gn ruble革）；L＝the number of

industrialworkers qnthousand⇒；K＝tOtalinvestment by the central

governmentqnrubles）；Re由onl＿14＝dummyvariableforeachrepubhc，with

Russiatakenasthebase；Trend＝timetrendvariable；Distance＝distance

betweenMosccwandthecapitalcityineachrepublic位m）；E顎rrOrterm


SovietRegionsRevisited： ANoteonTrendsinRegionalTFP －J29－

Cobb－DouglasTh）eProductionFunction＝EstimationResults Resu．tsofEstimationEq（1） Resu胎OfEstimaぬnEqp）

Variab】e Coe用cjent t・Va山e CoefRcient t・Value

Workers 0565 13123 ★－ 055212311 ★★

l【VeStment 0339 8674 ★★ 0327 7651 ★★

Distance什omMoscow －00∞28 3553 ★－

Uk招ine 0191 4988 ★★

Belorus －0151 7323 －－

Latvla －0135 4922 ★★ 0051 5180 －★

Estonia －0134 4271爛 0肪4 4748 ★★

LjIhuanja －0173 6315 ≠

Moldova －0144 4603 ★－ 0124 5253 ★★

K㌫招khstan －0153 6155 ★★ 0673 3396 鵬

Turkmen融an －0121 2798 －★ 0517 4336 ★－

町WZStan －0251 7630 ★－ 0522 3264 ★－

∪ねekistan －0116 4299 ★★ 0617 3738 触

職jikistan －0181 4837 ★－ 0592 3打0 一書

Geor9旧－0164 5970 ★★ 0245 3．751 ★★

彪e巾a毎an －0108 3639 ★★ 0379 4385 ★★

Amenia －0261 8619 ★★ 0188 2614 ★－

Trend 0026 15634 州 002714024 一★

T「endSquar由－0026 3984 ★－－0026 3餅）8 ■★

COnStant 1186 16480 ★－ 129312668 －★

R2 09978 DF F＿ratio

叫R2 09976236 62303 tナ

R2 09978 DF F伯tio

AqiR2 0地相 236 62423 －－

＊＊：Signi＆cantatl％1evel；☆：Signi丘cantat5％1evel


ーヱ30－－香川大学経済学部研究年報 40 ご（）（）（）

AppendixB：CorrelationbetweenNetMigrationRatesandVa血ousFactors

（Kumo，1999b，p．18）

De丘nitionofⅦmiblesinCorrelationAnalysis DependentV虻iable：

NetMigrationRateinEachUnionRepublic（Calculated丘omPopulationandNatural mαeaSeRate）

h血pendentV肝i血1e： Investment：PerCapitaGovernmentalInvestment HousingInvestment：PerCapitAHousingInvestment Railway ConstruCtion：Ne可y ConstruCted Railways，km瓜m2（divided by whole bmibⅣOfeadlrepubli¢） Ser山伏：PerCapitaSer扇伐Consump也on

NumberofDoctol・S：NumberOfDoctorsperThousandResidents NumberofIもspitalBeds：NumberofHospitalBedsperThousimdResidents NumberofUniversities：NumberofUniversitiesperThousandResidents AgriculturalOuQ）ut：PerCapitaOuq）utOfWheat



Appen血ⅩC：つもue2．a

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Tmkme血ね1 Y A肌 A‘〝

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1g72

1973

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香川大学経済学部研究年報 40

Appendixc（continues）：Thble2、b

ご（）（丸フ－∫ヱ2－

Lihu訓ia

Y AソA Aγr し血 Y A「仇 W

Edonb Y 鼎A AⅣ

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1979 1980 †981

19ち2

1983 伯糾 1985 1986

0071 0002 0172 0024 0357

0110 0064 0078 0032 0582 0413 0075 0025 0091 0039

0033 －0¢1ヰ 0337 0430 0087 0023 0127 0343 0245 ー0429 0045 0005 0110 0073 0040 0555 0106 0069 0645 0064 0034 0042 0540 －0542 0095 0064 0676 0018 ・0019 －1055 0010 －0024 ・2305 0020 －0011 ・0583 0053 0028 0521 0091 001も 0197

Moldva Y A肌則Y

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0037 0007 0204

0042 0018 －00010427・0540

0029 0001 0030

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1974 1975 19丁6

1977 19丁8

197g 198（〉

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1982 1983 19糾

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Bd肌S Y 〝／A A〝

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Y AソA AⅣ 〕b笥ine

Y AツA AⅣ 0053 0007 0127 0125 0350 0063 0030 0472 0084 0040 0475 0064 0022 0348 0069 0023 0332 0045．00010029．0025 0、052 00610020 0322 00610022 0358 0033 －0006 ・0185 0026 －0005 ・0208 0朋6．0013 0090・0790 ・0472 0052 0021 0405 00610（〉35 0577 0035 0012 0347 －00110032 －2898 00之3 0（〉05 0之04

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00け－0008 ・0．493

0002 －0022 ・13．96

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19モ〉6

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AppendixC¢ontinue＄）：Thble3a

－」3ユー－－

ARMENIA シ10 5・10 厄訂b卸n 5・10 5・10 GEORG】A 5－10 5－10 Y A肋 A：仏 AⅣ Y A■仏 A：仇 Aソr Y AソA AツA AⅣ

195か59 2162 0g悶 0968 0448 0448 10510552 0552（〉528 0526 1487 0754 0754 0507 0507 1g60 0110 0068 ・0004 0620－0078 0120 0060 0098 0500 0222 0粥0 0082 00801366 0238 1961 0072 ・0065 －0gO8 0063 0011 0178 010ヰ 0000 0001 1鍾2 0101 0018 0177 0059 0018 0306 D0510000 0004 1963 006g ・0019 －0272 0048 0004 0088 0041－0011 －0273 1964 0121・0001 －0010 0068 0003 003モl 0102 0009 0089 1965 0115 0019 0206 0169 0308 0071（〉016 0124（〉220 0345 0113 00310208 0271 0442 †粥8 0137 0066 0479 0073 0044 08D6 0076 0020 0260 1987 0075 0000 0000 0043 0009 0218 0077 0030 0386 1968 0107 0061 0566 0053 0015 0291 0077 0052 0671 1969 0142 0046 0326 0088 0034 0392 0099 0062 0619

伯70・74 0476 0317 0317 0865（〉665 0509 0315 0315 0618 0618 0429 0．329 0329 07（S9 0769 197シ79 0452 0233 0233 0別6 0516 0446 0234 0234 0526 0526 0333 0098 009モ10294 0294 198ひ84 0333 0142 0142 0425 0425 0333 0070 0070 02110211 0313 0103 0103 0330 0330

Kaz虞h由∩ ふ10 ふ10 ⅦDG】黒シ10 5・10 TURKMEN 5－10 5－10

Y A「仇 AソA AⅣ Y AソA AソA A－〝 Y AソA AγA AⅣ

195か59 2175 0073 0073 0034 0034 1855 0333 0333（‖79 0179 1354 0413 0413 0305

1960 0130 －0082 0067 ・0633 0187 0100・0092 －0037 －0925・0210 0060 0015 00110245 ・0036

博引 0115 0151 1310 0118 0133 1129 ll； lll－ l 上

1962 0095 0052 0542 0049・0011 －0225 0055 0022 0408 1963 0065 0008 0120 0124 0026 0213 0103 0024 0232

1964 0116 ・0047 －0ヰ05 0062・0077 －1244 0047 －0043 tO915 1985 ¢079 0025 0246 03伯 0472 0104 0047 0207 Cト452 040：I 0097 －0∬10 0．178・0107 0339

1966 0130 0074 0566 0124 0087 0706 0122 0090 0739

1967 0090 0059 0（；61 005モ10005 0089 0055 0031 0561

1968 0060 0025 0414 0045 0015 0331 0017 0001 0070

1969 0108 0043 0409 009100」柑 0．437 0133 005モi O434 伯7恥74 0421 0248 0248 0590 0590 0414 0179 0179 0433 0433 04710207 0207 0441 0441 197シ79 0185 0045 0045 0243 0243 0286 0104 0104 0363 0363 0200 0103 0103 0517 0517 198小84 0156 0047 0047 0299 0299 0222 0028 0028 0126 0126 0083 －0108．0108．1298 ．1298

∪虚ekid訂l シ10 Y AソA AγA Ⅳ

A 195小59

1960

1961

1962

1963

伯朗 1g65

1966

1967

1968

1969

197仇74

197ゝ79

198れ糾

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1304・0062 0070・0（I20 0065 0033 0061・0020 0140 0019 0087・0031 0087・0017 0092 0033 0039・0005 0005・○帥9 0095 0044 0529 0246 0231 0026 0′313 0166

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－J3∠望」－－香川大学経済学部研究年報 40

AppendixC（continues）：Tbble3b

ご（互）（）

ESTON】A シ10 5－10 Lm仇

Y AソA A「仇 AⅣ Y AγA A肌 A〝

1950．59

1960 0100 0044 0197 0437 0365 0110 －00610049 －0552 0085 0080 －0003 0116・0038 0221

1961 0109 0044 0486 0099 0021 0210 0093 0013 0145

1962 0107 0046 0428 0115 0059 0515 0093 0046 0497

1g63 0089 0026 0295 0132 0010 0074 01010016 0159

1g64 0088 0023 0262 0130 0023 0鳩1 0113 0039 0344

1965 0081 0055 0234 0676 0532 0121 0019 0204 0159 0324 0108 0060 0255 0553 0491

1g66 0092 0032 0341 0128 0033 （〉259 0109 0050 0457

1g67 0095 0021 0226 0109 0014 0131 0093 0038 0408

1968 0072 0077 1067 0119 0080 0675 0066 0031 04乃

1969 0089 0031 0348 0109 0044 0399 0096 0054 05tS3

197か7ヰ 0393 0291 029107410741 0484 0288 0288 05g5 0595 0370 0187 0187 0504 0504 197シア9 0231 0140 0140 0605 0605 0261 019101910732 0732 0216 0199 0199 0920 0920 198♭糾 01鵡 0065 0065 0㈹ 0449 0259 0074 0074 0287 0287 0178 0044 004ヰ 0249 0249

5・10

M乱D＼仇む10 Y AソA AγA AツY

3372 0949 0949 0281 0281 0110 ・0016 01粥・0148 0203 0144 0108 0747 0094 0035 0094 ・0028 ・0297

0164 0055 0373 0337 0068 －0015 0057 －0224 0055

0116 0001 000モI

O133 0054 0406

0092 0039 0426 0062 －0021 ・0343 0560 0240 0240 0429 0429

0308 0169 0169 0549 0549

0275 0136 0136 0497 0497

Russb シ10 5－10 〕baine シ10 Bel訂uS シ10 シ10

Y AγA A肌 A〝 Y AソA AソA Aγr Y AγA A肋 ÅⅣ

1g5ひ59 1818 0680 0680 0374 0374 2160 09朋 09410436 0436 270113141314 0487 （〉487 1960 0080 0047 0183 0592 0428 0100 0052 0202 0522 0409 0120．0020 0112 －016モI O217

1961 0093 0053 0575 0100 0049 0486 0107 0091 0853

1962 0076 0041 0536 00（S6 0030 0456 0089（l013 0147

1963 0063 0014 0216 0070 0011 0154 0104 0027 0265

1964 0074 0017 0223 0109 0047 0428 0101・0001 －0013 1965 0083 0039 0208 0469 0471 0078 0018 0189 0234 0421 0140 0034 0224 0240 03朋

1966 0096 0047 0487 0097 0042 0438 0128 0039 0307

1967 0081 0030 0370 0083 0026 0312 0123 0040 0328

19閃 0070 0047 0677 0077 0050 0651 0110 0062 0561

196g 0084 0030 0352 0朋i5 0000 0亜9 0118 0032 0269

1970・74 0364 0150 0150 04110411 0■沌 0249 0249 0559 0559 0615 0373 0373 0607 0607

1975－79 0267 0151 01510568 0568 0167 0073 0073 0436 0436 03810214 0214 0562 0562 198小84 0158 0078 0078 0494 0494 0214 0125 0125 0582 0582 0310 0158 0158 0509 0509



AppendixC（continues）：一指ble3c

Sibげja訓dF訂Ead

－J35－－－－

∈げOPe・Russb

鮒漉 Y O伊uY O4●K〝 AソA AソY 0727 0083 0340 0420 0577 0161 0028 0365 00鋪 0即8 0090－0859119300600666

筆：regionsshowinghighestpercapitaindustrialoutputin1985


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