Angela bdarie Conti m&wAmlmt o f Soc ia logy

SubQIftted in partial fulfillmant o f the requirlprlhtrr fot the degr88 o f

Maa+lar o f A r t s

FaCU1t;ft of -te Studiea The U n i - s a t y o f W e s f e r a Ontario

madon, Ontario Sep- 1998

@ Angela M. Coati 1998

The apthor has granted a non- exclusive licence ailowing the National Liirary of Canada to reproduce, loan, distri'bute or sel1 copies of this thesis m microfo~m, papex or elecüonic fonnats.

L ' w a accordé une licence non

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The author retains ownership of the c-ght in this thesis. Neither the thesis nor substantial extmcts fkom it may be printed or othhse reproduced without the author's

L'auteur conserve la proMeté du droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels & celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés ou autrement reproduits sans son

T h i s study compares rates of underemployment for

post-secondary graduates in two recent Canadian social

surveys . While research on underemplopent generally

considers the labour-force experiences of younger workers,

this research is unique in t h a t it considers workers of al1

ages and education levels.

Rates of underemployment are computed based upon f i v e

ind ica to r s . While t h e r e is l i t t l e change in levels of

underemployment between 1989 and 1994, the nature of

underemployment in these years is d i f f e r e n t . Underemployment i n 1994 is more l i k e l y to be a result of

involuntary ternporary o r part- t ime work and is more strongly

associated with work in the traditional service sector. It

is also noted that by 1994 workers are increasingly

uncertain as to the f u t u r e s tabi l i ty of their occupations.

The descriptive results in 1989 and 1994 indicate that

underemployrnent is experienced by workers of al1 ages. The

multivariate analysis suggests that underenployment in both

years is a complex problem which varies w i t h i n genders,

iii

subject majors and levels of education. The study stresses

the importance of underemployment as an indicator of

economic well-being and suggests t h e need f o r additional

research.

Underemployment, post-secondary graduates,

restructuring, recession, non-standard work, polarization

1 wculd like to take this opportunity to thank a nümber

of individuals who have supported me during the preparation

of this thesis. Special thanks are extended to Professor

J i m Rinehart whose work inspired me and whose encouragement

and guidance kept the thesis in perspective. My second

advisor, Professor Rod Beaujot provided m e with valuable

statistical advice and an unending supply of patience.

1 would also l i k e to thank the members of my examining

commîttee, Professor Jerry White, Professor J u l i e McMuliin

and Professor Carol Agocs, for t h e i r suggestions and

comments . 1 would l i k e to thank my family and friends, especially

my parents Sem and Kate, my sister Nancy, my brother Sam

(and h i s Big Cats), and Jeff Grondin who saved me while

running chat f a t e fu l night .

Finally, 1 would l i k e to thank my fiance, Michael

Becker, who h a s been my support group, sanity, editor and

punching bag throughout the course of this most interesting

adventure.

Cmtif icate of Etrmi~tioa......... .................. ii Abrtract..., ......................................... iii ~0~~OdQBPlOllt8 ..................................... V

Table of C o a ~ b . . - , ..O...........e................. vi Lfat of $ i p e a . . . . . . . t . . . .b~. . . . . . . .e . - . . . . . . . . . .b . *oi ia Z i a t of T.ble8........ - . . . . . - . . . . , . - . . . , . . , . . . , . * . . . . i r t L a s t o f -&ce8 ................................... x Ia*&caon ...........................O............. 1 C h a p e 1: Reatructufing Work and Work01:8. ........... 9

1.1 !Che Rise of Noa-Standud Folcliiu of -1-t .........,....,,.................. 14

1.2 The Gtowth o f tâe S d c e Sectot..,.. ..0....19 1.3 &ducational A t + b i ~ t . . . . . . . . - . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 5 1.4 êàaptu S ~ e . œ . e . e . . œ œ . œ o . - , . * C - . . ~ . . - . . 2 8

Chapter 2: U R - q l o y m e a t : De£ining the Probl-.....31 2.1 I n ~ d u c ~ o n . . ......................o...... -31 2.2 Doterniiaants of U ~ ~ l p p l o y i o e n t ............. 35 2.3 Chap+er S- ........................m.... 47

ChapteJc 3 : 8,rraii-g Uader~lll~loymeat: Data-Seti, Xndicrtors, De--, and D e i c r i g t i o e Rssuw,.... ............O.................*. 49

3.1 The 1989 anâ 1994 General Sockaî Sunmya..,.49 3.2 Defining the Sub-s~le.,.D.,,-.C,..eo.,*.*051 3.3 ~ h e IIKU-~OX. of ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ t . , ~ ~ . . ~ . ~ . . 5 3

...... 3.4 Calculaang Meriuer of U n d e r ~ l o y m e n t 57 3.5 D08aâpum R m ~ ~ c h Q u o ~ ~ ~ o - .....-..,.-... 59 3.6 Descriptive Re~Utcr,.~..-.... ......O........ 62 3.7 chaptu Srrnnarrr+*...œ.D..,.*Cœ.œ.*....-**...*79

C h a p e 4 : P z e d i c t i n g Uader~~pp1oyment: The Multivarïatu Medel, ~ y r i 8 and Daaassioa.... ..........................O.. -83

4.1 2 b m t i o n s of OLS ~er8f0n,.,~...-..,....84 4.2 Variables Uaed in thS. AaUysis ............. 85

Piguxe 3.1: Uaâercr~~ployinent for Wotkera Vermu W o f k o ~ r and S e i f - w l a y e b , 1989 anâ 1994.......,52

Figuxe 4.1: Mode1 1: m a t i o n o f Deteraiinanta o f UndereaPiplolp~~ont, 1989 and 1994 .,...,....-.... 89

Figure 4 - 2 : Mode1 2: Regremaion o f Detamahaata aad Iateractionr, 1989 and 1994,.....,...,,.....92

Figure 4.3: Regre88aon o f Model 2 on Each Level of ~ c ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ * * ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ * * ~ * * * .b.-......b..-,.,.,.98

Figu+e 4.4: IlegreaaLon of Mode1 2 on E m h Gen&r..,.,.lOl Figuxe 4.5: -saion of Medei 2 on Ucb Major ....... IO6

viii

T a l e 3.1 : Rates o f U n c b e r ~ l o p e a t by Major in 1989 rnA 1994ss,s,s0se0,.0es..0.0~0.0..~.67

Table 3.2: R a t e . of V n & w l m t by Xnduatry in 1989 rnA 1994....0.~...~00,.0s~00.L.~.~..67

T a b l e 3 .3 : Rate8 o f Un-~l~gloymnt by Level of Education in 1989 and 1994..,00,. .o .o. , . .68

T a b l e 3 .4 : Rate8 o f Unâereanplogre~t by Age in 1989 .nd1994,0,~,.m,.,...,,..,.o,..,m,,.,..69

T a b l e 3 - 5 : Rates of P e r c e a d Fu-e Sob Loris Vermm Rater of Act1181 Job Lo8s W a l l , by Major,Industty md Level in 1989 and 1994.. .71

T a b l e 3-6: Cotrelatîons Bettreea Each ladicator and Undermploymeat, 1989 and 1994 ...,..,... 77

Table 4 . 1 : Deaaiptiorm, TâUes aad Vaïid Came8 for Variable8 Included i a the Maïtivasaate m l p i a . ..m.-.................86

There was a group of us when we were articling who were going to open a bar called The Pro Shop because you had to be a professional to work there and have a minimum of two degrees ... Werd hang your degree somewhere in the bar---mine was going to go in the washroom---and when you introduced yourself to the customers youFd state what your degree was in (Queree in Bouchove, 1993 : BI).

The underemployment of post-secondary graduates is

increasingly recognized as a issue of social

concern. Rising tuition fees, coupled with credentialisrn,

leaves many potential students in a difficult situation;

they find themselves wondering i f they should undertake the

financial burden of post-secondary education when employment

prospects are ambiguous.

At the same time, students and potential students a l i k e

are bombarded with strategies. Self-help gurus, market

books designed to propel individuals into career after

career, ex-hman resource pros advise job-seekers in the

creation of designer resumes, and employment counselors and

agencies r d n d us that the jobs are out there---we simply

need to possess the s k i l l and high-tech knowledge which are

part of the occupational requirements. Students are

sub j ected to contradictions and conf licting reports; on t h e

one hand, they are told that job prospects, at least good

job prospects, are slim, while on the other hand, they are

have the s k i l l s and abound if they told that the jobs

knowledge . Through an ana lysis of data gathered £rom two recent

General Social Surveys, this thesis attempts to provide some

understanding of the extent to which post-seconda-

graduates from various disciplines and programs experienced

underemployment. Underemployment generally refers to a

situation where academic qualifications exceed those

required by the present occupation (Secretary of State ,

1 9 9 2 ) . Research on underemployment has encompassed a broad

range of individual and structural trends Fncluding

"part-time, temporary contract employmentn (Ruiz-Quintanilla

and CLaes, 1996:424), job-education mismatch (Redpath, 1993)

and the credential gap (Livingstone, 1997) . This thesis

considers underemployment in tenos of five indicators which

are combined to provide a broader definition of

underemployment than that which is generally encountered in

the literature.

The General Social Survey (GSS), is a Canadian survey

which is routinely conducted on any number of social issues

and/or institutions. In 1989 and again in 1994, the GSS

focused on work, education and retirement. These surveys

are particularly interesting given the economic recession of

the eighties and resultant political and econonic changes

which led up to a second Canadian recession in the early

nineties. Measures of underemployment derived £rom the 1989

and 1994 GSS will be analyzed in an attempt to trace and

determine some of the larger economic consequences of the

1990 recession and of the restructuring of work i n Canada.

By considering overall rates of underemployment in both 1989

and 1994, a greater sense of c e r t a i n t y may be attached to as

to whether or not post-secondary graduates are currently

experiencing higher rates of underemployment, One might

also explore tangible outcomes of the economic troubles

which plagued Canadians throughout the early nineties,

Previous research on underemployment and job-education

mismatch (reviewed in Chaper 2) will serve as the basis for

predicting significant determinants of underemployment. The

impact of each of these determinants will be analyzed w i t h

reference to total underemployment and each of the five

indicators in both 1989 and 1994, to ascertain whether or

not these determinants significantly predict underemployment

within either or both of the GSS sub-samples in 1989 and

1994.

This thesis w i l l address the following specific

research questions:

Who was underemployed in 1989? Who was underemployed in 1994?

Wich determinants explained the greatest amount of variation i n underemployemnt i n 1989 and in 19942

Was there a significant change in t h e predictors of underemployment between 1989 and 1994?

Did underemployment increase or decrease between 1989 and 1994?

The years between 1989 and 1994 were trying for

Canadian workers. The recession, job loss and a general

sense of economic insecurity resulting from both, continued

(and to sorne extent still continues) to plague Canadians

long after the recession had officially ended. The

following sec t ion provides a brief review of the literature

which traces the economic climate in Canada from 1989 to

By 1989 "unemployment had fallen to pre-recession

levelsw, down from 11.8 percent in 1983 to 7.5 percent in

1989 (Cote, 1990:8). Kowever, this stability would not

endure. Canadians experienced a second serious economic

recess ion which began i n 1990 and brought a decline in

full-time employment, an increase Ln part-the employment

and raised unemployment to 9.3 percent (Cross, 1992:l).

These hardships continued throughout the early nineties

with unernployment increasing to 10.3 percent in 1991 and

peaking at 1 1 . 3 percent in 1992 (Statistics Canada,

1995:34) . Unemployment was a problem for individuah with

al1 levels of education, as post-secondary participation

increased at a faster rate than did adequate eniployment

opportunities (Cross, 1992 : 9 ) ,

The d i f f i c u l t i e s encountered by youth w i t h reference to

the labour market continued into 1993 despite economic

improvements (Dumas, 1994 : 3) . Young people were proclaimed

to be "the b i g losers in the recent recessionl', as t h e

employrnent level for youth dropped from 2 . 4 m i l l i o n i n

1988-1989 to 1.9 million in 1993. Unemployment rates during

this year were predictably highest for youth a t 17.7

percent, followed by adult males at 10.1 percent and adult

women at 9.6 percent. Part-time workers (no tab ly ,

involuntary part-tirne employment) comprised 60 percent of

overall job growth (Dumas, 1994: 6-81,

By the end of 1994 the unemployrnent r a t e had dropped to

9 . 6 percent and, for the first time in six years, young

people experienced modest gains (Akyearnpong, 1995:1,7).

Despite an overall increase in full-time work, the

part-to-total employment rat io and the n&et of involuntary

part-time workers remained stable (Akyeampong, 1995 : 7) . Furthemore, the overall labour-force participation rate

decreased, especiall y among young people, indicat ing the

ongoing struggle on the part of youth with reference to

employment as late as 1994.

While few scholars question the anxiety Canadians of

al1 ages and education levels are experiencing with regards

to work and the economy, there is some question as to

whether or not these concerns are warranted (Betcherman and

Lowe, 1997:4) Betcherman and Lowe (1997:7) state that "a

closer look at the statistics.. . shows that things have not

gotten (sic) as bad as the ievels of anxiety would suggest".

This thesis endeavors to provide some c lar i ty with regards

t o the more generaf issues surrounding work and

underemployment. The investigation concerns the extent to

which Canadian post-secondary graduates are experiencing

underemployment. The over-arching question guiding t h i s

research contemplates whether or not job prospects for

post-secondary graduates are as precarious as many of us

believe them to be.

Chapter 1 w i l l review the broader social, p o l i t i c a l and

economic changes which have occurred in Canada over the past

couple of decades. It will examine some of the ways in

which work already has been restructured and i t w i l l review

some of the larger theoretical perspectives which have

attempted t o provide insight with regards to the future of

work and workers. The latter sections of Chapter 1 w i l l

discuss three structural trends which are currently

associated with underemployment. Chapter 2 will review

current researcb which has exarnined the problem of

underemployment and/or job-education mismatch. This chapter

w i l l consider some of the most influential determinants of

underemployment and how these have related to the problem of

underemployment arnong post-secondary graduates. Chapter 3

will outline the methods, sample and measures used in this

research and review the results of the descr ipt ive analysis.

Chapter 4 will introduce the multivariate model, and review

the results of the multivariate analysis and Chapter 5 will

draw conclusions.

The past t w o decades have brought changes

fundamentally restructured the social, p o l i t i c a l

which have

and working

l i ves of Canadians. It is the purpose of the first s e c t i o n

of t h i s chapter t o examine some of these trends and s h i f t s ,

particularly with reference to work. The chapter w i l l go on

to consider three s p e c i f i c s t r u c t u r a l changes which are

associated with underemployrnent.

To f u l l y understand the reasons behind t h e changing

labour market i n Canada, one must appreciate t h e

r e l a t i o n s h i p between labour and t h e Canadian state. A s

Krahn and Lowe (1993:53) note, t h e political ideologies

which t ook hold under Thatcher i n England and Reagan in the

United States i n t h e eighties brought "severe setbacks" to

labour a s a result o f policies which "ciearly favoured

employers''. The authors explain tha t , while in Canada,

labour has n o t "suffered the same s e t b a c k s " , neoconsemative

p o l i c i e s have , t o some degree, restructured work. With

reference to the increasing acceptability of laissez-faire

economics, the authors note that "in a sense, t h i s political

environment is as important a determinant of Canada's future

labour market as are the economic and technical trends, , ." (Krahn and Lowe, 1993: 54) .

In their essay entitled "The Future of Work in Canadaw,

Betchemn and Lowe (1997 : 1) attribute increased

apprehension among Canadians to Irdeep-seated social and

political shifts of our era", which have included "new

technology, economic globalization, high unemployment ,

declining job security, stagnant incomes, [and] polarized

working tirne". The authors highlight the weakening of

"anchors* previously provided by the state (such as

accessible health care and post-secondary education), an

ideological move towards mlaissez-faire" economics and a

heightened focus upon the individual (Betcherman and Lowe,

1997:Z). Betchennan and Lowe note that in spite of the fact

that Canada's most recent recession officially ended in

1992, Canadians continue to experience deep insecurity with

reference to work. Academics, policy makers and the media

employment . Duffy et. al (1997:3), ident i fy the c u r e n t Canadian

social cl imate as a "social turmoilw stermning large ly from

an intense uncertainty surrounding "the nature and future of

work". The present Ynformation revolution" (Duf fy et.

al:3) has taken the predictability out o f work; where not so

long ago a job meant f o r t y hours a week for life and then a

pension, today it might mean a one-year contract, or t h i r t y

hours a week supplemented by a second part-time job. The

authors note that work is i n a state of crisis: "The

entrenchrnent of high rates of unemployment, the move to

casual ize more of the labour force, the growing gap between

core workers with 'good jobsr and peripheral workers with

%ad jobs ' . . . and the absence of entry-level jobs for the

young", al1 speak to th i s fact (Duffy et al:l).

A growing sense of social i n s t a b i l i t y and fear is

further indicated by the actions of Canadian workers. Recent

strikes involving public service workers and teachers i n

Ontario were an outright demonstration of the extent to

which Canadians in traditionally qood and secure occupations

are fearing for their jobs. Canadians are acutely aware of

the profound changes which are affecting their working-lives

and overall economic stability.

In an attempt to understand the impact that these

changes will have upon the working lives of Canadians, three

main theoretical positions have evolved. Although these

perspectives are widely encountered and debated throughout

the l i terature on work, the synthesis provided by Betcherman

and Lowe is particularly pragmatic. Betcherman and Lowe,

(1997:10), refer to these scenarios as "technology not

peoplew, "work not jobsw, and nalmost business as usualw.

The authors describe the perspectives as follows:

ntechnology not peoplen asserts that post-industrial society

will be one which encourages polarization, mass unemployxnent

and global integration. This theoretical position is

postulated by authors Swift (1997) and R i f k i n (1995). "Work

not jobsm, sees post-industrial society as one filled with

opportunities for those with high-tech s k i l l s and knowledge.

This optirnism is reflected in the work of Bell (1973) and

Drucker (1993). Fina l ly , walmost business as usualn, is

what Betcherman and Lowe (1997:lO) label t h e l e a s t

revolutionary of the perspectives This position is most

widely held by governments and sees evolutionary change and

gradua1 adaptation to socia l and technological changes.

This position recognizes the growing prevalence of

non-standard work and self-employrnent, noting both the

po ten t ia l benef i t s (personal f l e x i b i l i t y ) and risks

[unemployment and underemployment) (Betcherman and Lowe,

1997: 14).

What remains uncertain is t h e direction in which work

i n Canada is headed. The increasing frequency of three

structural trends provides sorne indication. These trends

are as follows: an increasing number of Canadians are

employed i n non-standard work situations (Krahn, 1995;

Glenday, 1997); work in Canada has s h i f t e d from being

located primarily i n manufacturing to being located

pr imar i ly in the service sector (Krahn, 1992; S w i f t , 1 9 9 7 ) ;

and, f inal ly , the number of Canadians pursuing or possessing

post-secondary education has increased dramatically (Cote

and ALlahar, 1994; Livingstone, 1993; Livingstone, 1997 ) .

The literatirre which discusses these trends is reviewed in

the following section

Since the 197Os, the number of Canadians in

non-standard work arrangements has increased significantly

(Broad, 1995:32). Non-standard workers may be either

self -employed, temporarily employed, employed part-t irne

and/or employed i n multiple jobs (Krahn, 1991:35). According

t o Finlayson (1996:75), non-standard work has contributed

significantly to job growth over t h e past twenty years. She

estimates t h a t almost half of al1 jobs created during t h i s

time have been non-standard and that non-standard forms of

employment are responsible for employing approximately

thirty percent of Canadians. A similar estimate is

provided by Broad (1995:32), who categorizes one-third to

two-fifths of Canada's labour force as non-standard,

contingent, andior flexible.

P e - r . . Workus

Perhaps the most comon £onn of non-standard

errrployrnent , part-time employment , has increased

signif icantly since the mid-1970s (Krahn, 1995; Noreau,

1994) . In 1994, part-time employment accounted for 23

percent of overall employment, reflecting an average annual

increase of 6 . 9 percent (full-time work increased by only

1.5 percent) (Krahn, 1995:36) . In research which examined the relationship between

post-secondary graduatesr education and employment, Bowlby

(1996:41) found a significant reelationship between part-time

work and education-job mismatch. Bowlby (1996: 4 1 ) stated

that even as long as five years after graduation, "graduates

working part-time i n most major occupations were less l ike ly

to have a direct education-job relationship than graduates

working full-time in those same occupationsm. Also

important to note is the fact that, unl ike levels of

unemployment, which decreased with time spent i n the labour

force, "overall part-time rates for al1 graduates remained

stable" (Anisef and Axelrod, 1993:107) . These findlngs

would seem to suggest that as part-time employment

increases, so too does the potential fo r prolonged and

stable underemployment,

z h W 1 ~ ~ P e - m

Individuals who work part-tinte involuntarily are an

e s p e c i a l l y significant and growing cohort who exempfify the

very definition of underemployment; these are individuals

who want but are unable to work full-the. Involuntary

part-time workers provide an especially valid measure of the

ex ten t to which current employment opportunities are not

meeting the needs of workers (Noreau, 1994:25) . Just over

one-third (35 percent) of al1 Canadian workers in 1993

worked part-time on an involuntary basis (Noreau, 1994:25) . Aithough the majority of involuntary part-time workers are

women, the o v e r a l l rate of involuntary part-tirne work is

highest among men aged 25 to 44 (Noreau, 1994:27).

T ~ l p o z w W o r k u ~

Temporary jobs non employ one in 10 Canadians.

Manpower, an Arnerican temporary-employment agency, employed

560,000 employees in 1993, making it the largest private

employer in the United States (Finlayson, 1996:77). In

Canada, temporary or contract work employed 970,000

Canadians in 1994 (Krahn, 1995: 38) . Temporary or contract

work was most prevalent among individuals between the ages

of 15 to 24. Within this age cohort, temporary or contract

work employed 17 percent of wmen and 16 percent of men. As

a point of comparison, only five to seven percent of men and

women above the age of 35 were employed i n a

temporary/contract position in 1994 (Krahn, 1995:39).

In most cases, temporary workers experience over tirne a

reduction in both wages and occupational s tabi l i ty .

Research conducted by the Canadian Council on Social

Development (in Wells, 1996:15), reported significant

decreases in wages for both women and men ($2.00 and $2 .85 ,

respectively) who were employed in temporary situations.

The same study also found that 75 percent of individuals who

worked i n temporary positions were empioyed for six months

or less (Wells, î996:15).

Hm-Stan&rd Work a s A P-OII of Camaal3zrtioa

The increasing prevalence of non-standard forms of

employment can be understooà more generally as an overall

"casualfzation of labourm (Broad, 1997:53). According to

Broad (1997:55), global restructuring and, consequently, a

heightened need for flexible, cost-efficient workers, have

encouraged the casualization of labour. In an attempt to

reduce costs, "corew companfes contract out work to

"peripheralW workers who are hired as needed (Broad,

1997:55; Betcherman and Lowe 1996:35). Researchers have

observed that work i n America is increasingly being

tempe@ with ' contingent ' or ' j ust-in-time ' workers doicg

everything from clerical work to benefits analysis to

systems engineeringw (Finlayson, 1996: 77 ) . Perhaps even

more telling is the fact that some companies no longer h i r e

any permanent employees; instead workers are routinely

"leased" from temporary-employment agencies as they are

required (Finlayson: 7 6 ) . It is important to note t h a t flexible labour could

potentially benefit both employees and employers i f it were

designed i n such a way so as to make it more "worker

friendlyn (Broad, 1997:63; OtHara, 1993; Sundstrom, 1 9 8 7 ) .

Flexibil ity i n this context would manifest itself i n terms

of j ob-sharingw , "work-sharingW, and "f lex-the"

arrangements which could, potentially, serve to alleviate

some of the pressure on the unemployed and underemployed,

while not penalizing individuals who work part-time (Broad,

1997:63). In reality, however, non-standard work

arrangements continue to advantage employers at the expense

of workers, particularly those who take part-time or

temporary jobs out of necessity rather than choice

(Betcherman and Lowe, 1996:28; Broad, 1997:55;).

The service sector currently employees over 70 percent

of al1 working Canadians in jobs which range from clerks and

cashiers (traditional services), to teachers and public

administrators (nonmarket services), and to accountants and

consultants (dynamic services) . Two characteristics

associated with the service sector provide some indication

as to why this sector is so often associated with

underemployment. Fi r s t l y , the service sector is highly

polarized; jobs within this sector range frorn 20 of the

lowest paying to six of the 20 highest paying (Grenon,

1996:29) . Secondly, and related to high polarization, is

the fact that the service sector is often associated with

non-standard work arrangements which are, in turn, of ten

associated with underemployment (Krahn, 1995:36; Swift,

1997:36). The extent t o which this move to services has

increased underemployment thus rests upon where (i.e., i n

which sec tor ) growth has occurred and whether or not this

sector is characterized by non-standard forms of employment.

P&~t&tf= m m t b M c 8 m e

There exists an overwhehing amount of literature which

debates t h e impact a service-based economy has and will

continue to have upon the lives and jobs of Canadians (Bell,

1973; Braverman, 1974; Glenday, 1997; Grenon, 1996;

Rinehart, 1996; Yates, 1973). Part of t h e reason for the

ambiguity surrounding the consequences of an econumy based

largely upon services is the great polarization of jobs

within the service sector, According to Mnehart

(1996: 75 ) , "most new jobs are either relatively cornplex,

stable, and well-paid, or routine, poorly paid, and

insecure". Grenon (1996:30) found significant polarization

of wages within the service industry with the highest-paying

occupational category paying six times that of the lowest.

Although the service sector did provide the highest paying

job category in 1994, it also provided three-quarters of its

workers with average week ly salaries below the averages

reported by individuals in manufacturing (Grenon, 1996~32).

In a paper which focused upon the experiences of youth,

The Economic Council of Canada (1990) emphasized the

polarization within the service economy. The report

identified several distinct lower-tier and upper-tier

"labour-market segmentsn which incorporated bad jobs and

good jobs. It was noted that llservice-sector employment

opportunities for young people Vary considerably by specific

age group and by level of educationw (Economic Council of

Canada, 1990:42). While this research did provide evidence

which supported the fact that good jobs existed for young

workers in the service economy, the authors also noted that

"a sizable minority of university graduates had not escaped

frorn student job ghettosm (Economic Council of Canada,

1990: 42) . The threat of underemployment, especially among

young people, within the service sector is thus very real.

Myles (1988:353) emphasized important developments

which provided evidence suggestive of the reality of

(continued) polarization within the Canadian labour force.

Myles (1988:353) drew attention to the rapid growth in

consumer services, which, due to its 'increasing share of

the economy", could t u r n the Vhreat of the hamburger

economyw into reality. Krahn (1991:32) predicted continued

service-sector growth, with "sales, food service, clerical

and janitorial positions topping the list of occupations

expected to contribute most to employment growth up to

1995". Betcherman and Lowe (1992:27), distinguish between

lower-tier and upper-tier services and indicate that it is

in the lower-tier service sector that most, recent job

growth has occurred.

Hartnagel and Krahn (1992~4) describe the service

sector as being characterized by "a distinct

segmentation.,,into high-ski11 positions ... and low-skill

jobs". They cite evidence which is indicative of the fact

that between 1981 and 1986 "a large majority of the new jobs

created...were in the lowest pay rangesw (Kartnagel and

This pattern of growth is especially

problematic because of the fact that it largely affects

young entrants into the labour force and ultimately has two

results: firstly, t may diminish the wtraditional

entry-level jobsw which often serve to provide a first-step

in securing a career; secondly, it may have t h e effect of

segregating young people into wservice-sector ghettosg1 of

non-standard, lower-level forms of employrnent (Kartnagel and

Krahn, 1992:4-6) . Job growth predict ions provide some indication as to

which jobs will experience higher rates of growth. Rinehar t

(1996:161-2) provides job growth projections for 1992-2005

based upon American census data. These projections are

indicative of the fact that job growth will be largely

restricted to lower-level semices, with occupations such as

retail sales clerks, cashiers, cooks and janitors topping

the list. Rinehart (i996:160) notes t h a t "the majority of

job openings will demand neither computer skills nor special

educational training"; these s k i l l s will be necessary only

"for a relatively small number of very specialized jobs in

high-tech occupationsw. Betchenaan and Lowe (1997 : 26-29)

note that "compared to the 19709, there are more Canadians

in high-earner and low-earner categories, uith relatively

fewer in the middlem. They state that while "occupational

growthn in some professional and technical fields has been

s ignif icant , "in actual numbers, there are f ar fewer

managers and professionals, and will be for the foreseeable

futuren (Betcherman and Lowe, 199727) . C u r e n t research continues to support the potential for

increased polarization. According to Menzies (1996:320),

"the proportion of people earning middle-class incomes

dropped by over nine percent between 1973 and 1989" as a

%ollowing out of exnployment" occurred in middle-ranking

jobs in manufacturing and services. Polarization has been

documented wi th in t h e service sector itself, in the areas

which have experienced the highest level of growth. Glenday

[1997:16) refers to the tremendous growth which has occurred

in "dynamic services", a source of good jobs, and the growth

which has also occurred in areas such as "tourism,

accomodation, and beverage services and amusement and

recreation services". While the dynamic services offer

challenging, s k i l l e d , infomation-based foms of employment ,

services such as tourism and accomodation provide highly

unski l l ed , boring, repetitious work which is o f ten

non-standalrd and poorly paid (Glenday, 1997 : 17 ) ' . The f act

that it is these two sub-sectors which are the fastest

growing a t tes ts t o the fact that the service sector i s

becoming increasingly polarized. Swift ( 1997 : 36) States

that almost h a l f ( 4 4 percent) of the jobs created dur ing the

1980s were i n "low-wage consumer and retail servicesw.

Attitudes towards education, specifically a b e l i e f in

the importance of obtaining a significant amount o f forma1

education, is the f i n a l factor which is associated with the

current situation of underemployment. Between 1950 and

1990, "the number of full-time post-secondary students

increased ninefold ... During the 1980s alone, enrolïment i n

many Canadian post-secondary institutions jmped by 50

percentm (Cote and Allahar, 1994: 3 7 ) . Enrolïments in adult education programs have increased f r o m approximately four

percent i n 1960 to 20 percent i n 1983 and, finally, t o 27

percent in 1991 (Livingstone, 1997 :222) . Livingstone

attributes high post-secondary enrollments to individualsf

perceptions of an association between increased education

and better job prospects. According to Livingstone

[1993:99), "those with post-secondary credentials have

generally rnaintained high participation rates in adult

education regardless of their employment statusesW.

Livingstone reiterates that a pervasive belief in the

importance of post-secondary education has not dininished,

even in light of the fact that previous post-secondary

skills may be unused.

A strong belief in the importance of acquiring

additional education credentials has been supported by a

number of other researchers2. Lowe and Krahn (1995:366)

found that among younger adults the most frequently cited

reason for using the formal education systern centered around

the belief that increased formal education would improve the

respondentsc p o s i t i o n in the labour market. The authors

went on to note that "among university sample members,

job-related education was significantly related (weakly)

with assessments of pay, fringe benefits and promotion

opportunitiesv (Lowe and Krahn, 1995:366). Finally, Lowe

and Krahn (1995:366) stated that over 80 percent of

university students were attaining fu r the r education

credentials "mainly for jobkareer purposesv8.

The increased perceived importance of education stems

largely from a bel ief in the fact that additional education

is the key to finding a good job. According to Livingstone

(1997), "there is no sign ... of any disenchantment with the extrinsic value of education to enhance job chances among

either the underernployed or any other discernible social

group" .

The overwfielming fa i th i n the value of t r a i n i n g and

education i s what Jarnie S w i f t (1997:37-8) refers t o as the

"training and educat ion gospelm. Swift ( 1997 : 37) suggests

that the prospective employment opportunities for graduates

betray the nconventional wisdom", which touts the value of

lifelong learning. Swift (1997:38) also notes that the

%nspoken messagew for indLviduals who do not succeed in the

highly precarious labour market, is that "their bad l u c k is

t h e i r own faultw.

Some scholars cite increasing rates of underemployment

as proof of the inconsistencies between the educational

system and the labour market. According t o Gallagher

(1995:94), for example, t h e notion that post-secondary

education is "the ticket to economic and social success" is

no longer realistic. This statement is echoed by Schecter

(1987:45), who notes the frequency with which academic

credentials are associated with the quest f o r secure

employment. Schecter (1987:45) states that "politicians and

civil servants...stfll reinforce this kind of reasoning,

spiced up by economistsw arguments about the crucial

importance of human capital to economic development". The

consistentiy high levels of enrollment i n post-secondary

institutions, particularly by post-graduates (Livingstone,

1997:222), attests to the fact t h a t these messages are,

indeed, hitting the mark.

e This chapter began by considering some of t h e

political, economic and social changes which have taken

place in Canada over the past 20 years. I t was suggested

that these changes have functioned ta ultimately decrease

the level of security with which many Canadians view their

occupational opportunities. The chapter went on to brief ly

discuss three theoretical positions which debate the future

of work. It was established that three structural trends

related to the aforementioned changes were associated with

underemployment . These trends include an increase in

non-standard foms of employment, the growth of the service

sector (and the polarization within this sector), and

greater participation in post-secondary education.

This chapter discussed the social and political changes

which have affected Canadian workers generally. The next

chapter will consider ernpirical and theoretical research

which focuses upon the underemployment of post-secondary

graduates. The studies reviewed in the following chapter

have assisted in the selection of important determinants of

underemployment. These determinants as well as the measures

of underemployment used in this research will be examined in

Chapters 3 and 4 .

'The Economic Council of Canada distinguishes between three types of service industries. Traditional services include services such as retail stores and restaurants and are generally low-tech. Dynaffi ic services are globalized, cornpetitive and high-tech, examples of which include, communications, banking and insurance. Nonmarket services are services provided by the public sector. Education, health care, and public administration would be included i n t h i s category (Lowe, 1993: 141)

'AS Cote and Allahar (1993) note, there is no doubt that some current jobs do require highly-skilled workers, however "the persistent belief that more and more education is required of al1 the population for the economy t o be viable and for individuals to be f u l l y competent i n the modern workplacem is problematic. Z t is this belief that is increasingly reiterated by the popular media and self-help gurus.

2.1 I a m f f a g

The first section of Chapter 2 will examine previous

research which has addressed the problem of underemployment.

This i n i t i a l e x a i n a t i o n w i l l look at overall rates of

underernployment for post-secondary graduates in general. The

second part of t h i s chapter w i l l introduce the individual

determinants which w i l l be included i n this analysis of

underemployment . In a two part series which appeared in t h e May and June

1975 issues of Change, James OToole (1975~26) provided an

in-depth analysis of what he referred to as "a portentous

s o c i a l pattern'' which was emerging i n "many industrialized

nationsm, OgToole identified the social pattern as

underemployment, stating that "where Marx had f orecast t h a t

mass unemployment would become the salient characteristic of

labor markets in advanced economies, it is now clear that

underemploynent ..As more accurately the hallmark of work i n

industrial societies" (OrToole, 1975:26). 09Toole (1975:26)

attributed the increasingly more common "underutilization of

human resourcesw to wdissonances and disjunctions in the

important and complex relationship between the institutions

of education and work" . According to O 'Toole (1975 : 28) ,

'the placing of intelligent and/or highly qualified workers

in du11 and unchallenging jobs is a prescription for

pathology---for the worker, the employer and societyw.

Underemployment continues to be a pervasive social

problern experienced by individuals at al1 levels : Findings

from 1989 self-report studies indicated that one third of

al1 Canadian university graduates were employed in positions

which did not require post-secondary education, 40 percent

of individuals with college certificates were employed in

jobs which did not require college-level education, and one

third of high-school graduates worked in positions which did

not require a high-school diplorna (Lowe in Livingstone,

1997:220). mer the past decade the "credential gap

patternw has remained stable so that fewer workers are

employed in positions which match their educational

credentials (Livingstone, 1997 :220) . Mismatch is the

reality for a number of Canadians, twenty percent of whom

are underemployed (Livingstone, 1997:220).

A 1991 study by the Department of the Secretary of

State of Canada found that in 1988, two years after

graduation less than half (47 percent) of university

graduates had secured employment in positions which directly

related to their f ield of study. Although 83 percent of al1

1986 post-secondary graduates (college and university) found

work which was related to some extent with their educational

training, the mat ch between employment and education varied

according to the field of study (Department of the Secretary

of State of Canada, 1991:32).

In a longitudinal study of job-education mismatch,

Redpath (1993:5) considered rates of mismatch for university

graduates from three Canadian universities using data from

The Study of Transitions from School to Work. The study

used both objective anci subjective indicators of mismatch.

The author reported job-education mismatch for 35 percent of

individuals with bachelor's degrees two years after

graduation. Redpath (1993:13) stated that "unless students

[were to] choose a professional degree such as Education or

Engineering, the chances of making a match are not better

than 50%". She concluded by warning of the threat of

credentialism, which would potentially result if the

educational requirements were to continue to increase

(Redpath, 1993: 15)

Data gathered Erom self-report studies by Livingstone

(1993S5) provide evidence of a continuing increase in the

incidence of underemployment in t e m s of a greater mismatch

between employment and education. According to Livingstone

(1993:95), in Ontario between 1982 and 1990, the overall

rate of underemployment for the total workforce increased

from 17 percent in 1982 to 20 percent in 1990. Most

striking was the rate of underemployment for post-secondary

graduates. For individuals who had received a college

diplorna, the rate of underemployment increased from 30

percent in 1982 to 42 percent in 1990; for individuals who

had received a university degree, the rate of

underemployment increased from 24 percent in 1982 to 36

percent i n 1990 (Livingstone, 1993:95). Aiso important to

note is the rate of underemployment for individuals between

the ages of 18 and 29, whose overall rate increased from 21

percent in 1982 to 29 percent in 1990 (Livingstone,

1993:95). Livingstone (1993:96) recagnizes the "extensively

do~umented~~ tendency on the part of ernployers to in f la t e

education credentials. H e f u r t h e r highlights t h e fact that

one-fifth of the labour force faces chronic underemployment,

noting that underemployment is faced by both middle-aged

workers and, increasingly, by post-secondary graduates.

tn o f

1. meld of S- (kkjor)

Field of study is an important indicator of

underemployment among post-secondary graduates (Bowlby,

1996:35; Redpath, 1993). Data provided f o r the Department

of the Secretary of State of Canada by Statistics Canada

(1991:32) indicated "substantial differencesw between the

fields of study. The study found that more than 90 percent

of graduates from Education, Engineering/Applied Sciences

and Health Sciences agreed that their jobs were partly or

directly related to their education (Department of the

Secretaliry of State of Canada, 1991:32) . However, less than

7 5 percent of graduates from Humanities, Social Sciences,

Agriculture/Biological Sciences and Fine/Applied A r t s were

employed in a job which matched their level of education

(Department of the Secretary of State of Canada, 1991:32).

While a majority (over 60 percent) of university

graduates agreed to statements indicative of the fact that

their jobs let them use their skills and abilities and that

their jobs were related to their education, individuals who

were graduates of the Arts were least l i k e l y to agree with

e i ther statement (Krahn and Lowe, 1991: 153) . In Redpath ' s

(1993:8) study of education-job mismatch, 70 percent of Arts

graduates experienced high rates of mismatch. Following

Arts graduates were individuals graduating with Science

degrees; 45 percent of Science graduates were working in

positions which did not require their level of education.

Individuals with degrees i n Education or Engineering f ared

best. According to Redpath {1993:8), T e w graduates from

Education or Engineering were unable to f ind jobs related to

their degrees*. Similar results were reported by Bowlby

(1996:38), who found graduates of university-level Health

professions programs to have the highest percentage (7 4

percent in 1991) of directly related jobs. Health

profess ions graduates were followed by Engineering and

Applied Science graduates and Education graduates (Bowlby,

1996:39). At the bottom of the list were university

graduates of General Arts and Sciences, Social Sciences and

t h e Humanities whose percentages of job-education match were

48, 47 and 43, respectively. Similar trends held for

graduates of College programs.

One possible explanation for the discrepancy i n rates

of underemplopent between majors is given by Redpath

(1993:13), who States tha t "employers may be underestimating

the importance of a humanities or social science background

in preparing young people for administrative and management

roles". Redpath notes a degree of misunderstanding about

the needs of business and the s k i l l s of graduates; in fact,

these graduates possess the skills demanded by business but

t h a t this fact remains largely unacknowledged.

There would seem to be some degree of ambiguity

surrounding the q u a l i t i e s employers are expecting from

potential employees. A recent Maclean's article notes

"apparently conflicting demands: while the business

community currently needs graduates with concrete training

in so-called hard skills...the notion that graduates with

broad, general s k i l l s are best prepared f o r a changing

workplace is prevalentw (Steele, 19%: 52) . Unfortunately,

the demanda of business are not uniform; while Steele

reports that businesses are looking for s p e c i f ic s kil ls ,

high-tech firms cite labour shortages due to a lack of

individuals "with general rather than very s p e c i f i c s k i l l s m

(Canadian Press, 1990:DT). Attempting to decipher what

exactly it is that current employers are looking f o r i s a

large part of t h e problem.

Final ly and related to the above, one must consider the

heavy ernphasis which is currently placed upon the

acquisition of specialized, high-tech s k i l i s . The value of

a general, liberal arts education is increasingly questioned

in a climate i n which employers demand particular technical

s k i l l s (see Avrarn, 1997 f o r example). The demand for

technological and scientific development may sway employers

away from students who might be seen as unqualified for such

positions.

2. kocl o f stuqy

While there is consensus regarding the ranking within

fields (e-g., arts versus science) of study, there is some

disagreement within the literature as to the ranking within

levels of study (e.g., colfege versus university). While

the data provided by the Department of the Secretary of

State of Canada (1991: 32) indicated that college graduates

were significantly more l ikely to be working in

study-related positions, Bowlby's research based upon the

1986 Follow-Up of Graduates Survey and the National

Graduates Survey (1996:43) suggested that "al1 university

and most career/technical fieldsm experienced increases in

job-education match in the Eive years following the

completion of the degree or diploma.

The question as to whether college or university

graduates enjoy greater education-job match is interesting

and w i l l be addressed in the statistical analysis. The

"long held belief that a university degree is the best route

to success for career-minded youthw is to some extent less

strongly advocated now that it was in the past (Avram,

1997 : 12) . Instead, some educators and industry leaders are

beginning to assert that Y f you want an education you go to

university ... but if you want a job you go to a technical

institutew (Avram, 1997:16). Opinions such as these tie

into the increasing b e l i e f in the value of an education

which emphasizes technical, specific skills (which was

discussed previously). Theoretically, this restructuring of

education can be seen to reflect the greater political

movement i n Canada towards a leaner, more consemative

social system where "educational resources can be turned

away from developing a full s p e c t m of human needs and

development to a far more 'uti l itariang goal of providing

marketable education and s k i l l s geared to the priorities or

capital (Shields, 1996) .

3- Agr

ünàeremployment has been especially problemat ic for

younger workers. While one-fffth of the total population is

deremployed, one-third of those individuals who are

underemployed are under twenty-five years of age

(Livingstone, 1993: 96) . In research which adâressed the

quality of work in the service sector, Krahn (1992:138)

identified young people as being oves-represented in the

lower-level service sector. Although Krahn (1992:138)

acknowledged the fact that rnany of the young people working

in these %ad jobs" were students looking for short-term

employment, he also stated that "many young people who have

left school completely have trouble moving out of the

student labour market in the lower-tier services into more

rewarding jobs in other sector~'~ (Krahn, 1992 : 138) . These

individuals are working in these lower-level positions "not

by choice, but because better employrnent opportunit ies are

not availablen (Krahn, 1992:138). They are, in effect,

underemployed.

According to Ekahn (1995:41}, between 1989 and 1994,

young workers faced the greatest increases in rates of

non-standard employment. Along with this decline in the

availability of standard employment came a decrease in wages

for young workers vis-a-vis those of their older

counterparts (Krahn, 1995:41) . A number of authors have considered the problem of

youth underemployment in the context of the school-to-work

transition (Krahn, 1991; Duffy, 1997:174). The declining

number of well-paid and secure entry-level jobs combined

with an increase in the number of individuals possessing

higher education credentials have made the transition from

school to work "more problematic and complicated than it was

several decades ago" (Krahn, 1991:30-34). According to

Duffy (1997:174), the d i f f i c u l t i e s faced by youth in the

labour market asise out of a shortage of work and, where

work is available, out of a shortage of permanency. Almost

two-thirds of the young people who found jobs in 1994 were

employed i n positions which lasted less than a year (Duffy,

1997:174) . The General Social Surveys which will serve as the

basis f or the statistical analysis are interesting because

they a i l o w us to explore underemployment across al1 age

groups and categories. mile the review of the literature

presented in the previous section indicates that

underemployment is generally studied as a problem of

young, recent graduates, the data used in this analysis will

allow a closer examination of the relat ionship between

underemployment and age.

4. - Women have traditionally been associated with

lower-skill, part-time, service sector positions and

continue to overwhelmingly comprise the part-time and

lower-level service industry labour-force (Duffy, 1997;

Rinehart, 1996; Redpath, 1993; Krahn, 1992). Krahn

(1992:138) notes that in s p i t e o f t h e fac t that "calls for

the removal of barriers, which keep women out of better jobs

are becoming commonplaceN, women continue to be concentrated

in lower-status jobs in the service industry. When compared

to men, wornen are also "three tîmes as likely" to work

part-the (Krahn, 1995s36). Data provided by Duffy

(1997:169-70) indicate that i n 1994, 86 percent of working

women were located i n the senice industry.

Although men and women share comparable rates of

job-education mismatch, gender is correlated with the kinds

of jobs matched and mismatched men and women occupy

(Redpath, 1993: 11) . n i l e mismatched women tend to be

concentrated in lower-level clerical jobs such as

receptionists and cashiers, mismatched men tend to work in

higher-status sales positions, as sales representatives and

supervisors (Redpath, 1993: 11) . According to Redpath, the

mismatched occupations often selected by women of fer little

potential for advancement; as a resu l t , women tend to be

more severely underemployed than men.

Redpathrs research indicates gender segregation by

occupation even among individuals whose job and education

match, Matched women graduates were predominantly teachers,

social workers, psychologists, and hunan resources

personnel, Matched men, on the other hand, were engineers,

accountants and computer scientists. Redpath (1993:11),

found that "regardless of match status, industrial sector

location or faculty of graduationm, there existed a

significant amount of difference (approximately 39 dollars

per week) in wages received by men and women.

The tendency on the part of certain

occupational/industrial sectors to make use of a greater

number of non-standard employees increases the potential for

underemployment. Wholesale and retail trade and comunity,

business and persona1 services are largely dominated by

part-time workers (Duf fy, 1997 : 169) . Employment wf thin

these sectors (particularly retail trade and personal

services) tends to be characterized by a lack of benefits

and low pay (Duffy, i997:167). Redpath (1993) found that

consumer semices which encapsulates both retail and

personal services was the industrial sector with the largest

proportion of mismatch graduates.

Redpath (1993: 10) fur ther noted that "one could make a

fairly accurate prediction of match or mismatch ... by knowing that a respondent worked in the education, health and

welfare service sector or in consumer services". These

sectors are so highly characterized by type and quality of

work, that underemployment or, alternat ively, a

job-education match can atmost be assured simpiy by knowing

one's occupation or industrial code.

Krahn (1995:39) compared the nurnber of temporary

workers in various industries and occupations and found that

temporary work tends to be concentrated in particular

occupational sectors. He included construction, social and

other consumer services, and public administration on the

list of occupations characterized by high reliance upon

temporary workers . Manuf acturing, distributive services,

and business services, on the other hand, employed a

relatively small number of temporary workers (Krahn,

1995:39). Krahn stated that while social services and

public administration together accounted for 30 percent of

al1 employees, they comprised 38 percent of al1 temporary or

contract workers between the ages of 15 and 64. Krahn

(1995:39) observed that "the public sector appears to have

become mre reliant on this form of non-standard workw.

6. P0t-tA.r Job -88 d Ac- Jab -18

In order to b e t t e r determine the way in which Canadian

workers perceived job s tab i l i ty in 1989 and 1994 a

determinant which indicated whether or not respondents

feared job loss in the next year was included in the

descriptive and multivarite analysis. This determinant

would provide insight as to the way in which workers

characterized the labour market in each survey year. As a

po in t of reference, a second and related deteminant was

included which measured the actual number of respondents who

had lost jobs over the f ive years preceeding the survey i n

each year. It was hypothesized that indivuals who had a

more negative perception of the labour force might be more

likly t o consider themselves underemployed. These

detenninants serve a second purpose in that they also

provide meaningful descriptive information with reference to

the general social climate surrounding Canadian w o r k and

workers in each of the survey years.

This chapter examined the problem of underemployment

among post-secondary graduates. It was established that

underemployment was a problem experienced by a number of

post-secondary graduates, and that rates of underemployment

appeared to be increasing- The second section o f the

chapter reviewed some of the determinants of

underemployment, including major, level of study, gender,

age and occupational/industrial sector, occupational

insecturity and job l o s s ,

Following an introduction of the 1989 and 1994 GSS,

sub-sample, indivators of underemployemnt and measures of

underemployment, these dete-nants will be examined

descriptively in the next chapter. Based upon the i n s i g h t

gained firom the descriptive and cross-tabular analyses in

Chapter 3, a multivariate analysis wiLl be presented in

Chapter 4. Chapter 5 will review some statistical and

theoretical conclusions based upon these analyses

It is the purpose of this chapter to discuss t h e data

set, sub-sample, variables and methodology which will be

used in this thesis. This section will begin with an

introduction and review of the 1989 and 1994 General Social

Surveys. Following this review, the chapter will examine

t h e sub-sample which was selected from each data-set and

explain the logic underlying the sub-sample. The chapter

w i l l then discuss each of the indicators which comprised

both the interval and dichotornous measures of

underemployment as well as the measures themselves.

The second part of this chapter will consider the

descriptive results of the analysis on the dichotomous

rneasure of underemployment. This section will b r i e f l y

introduce the multivariate analysis which will be the basis

for Chapter 4 .

3.2 2989 rriA 2994 S U

Through its General Social Surveys, Statistics Canada

attempts to f u l f i l l the following two main objectives: "to

gather data on social trends in order to rnonitor temporal

changes i n the living conditions and well-being of

Canadians" and "to provide inmiediate information on specific

social pol icy issues of c u r e n t or emerging interest"

(Stat ist ics Canada, 1 9 9 5 ) . A s previously stated, t h i s

thesis uses data derived from the 1989 GSS (Cycle 4) and the

1994 GSS (Cycle 9 ) . In both instances, the target

population was al1 Canadians aged 15 and over with the

exception of residents of the Yukon and Northwest

Territorles, as well as f u l l - t h e residents of institutions

(Stat ist ics Canada, 1989, 1995). Both surveys used Random

Digit Dialing methods for data collection; data for the 1989

sample were collected from January 20th t o February 28th

1989, and data from the 1994 sample were collected from

January 1994 until December 1994. The 1989 GSS consisted of

9,338 respondents, while the 1994 sample was comprised of

11,876. Both surveys employed a stratif ied sampling design

in which provinces were divided into strata. The response

rate was 51.5% in 1989 and 49.2% in 1994.

Although the sample sizes for the 1989 and 1994 GSÇ

were originally 11,800 and 10,500, respectively, these were

reduced based upon three general criteria. Since the focus

of this research was the underemployment of post-secondary

graduates, only those individuals who possessed

post-secondary credentials were considered in the analysis.

Included were individuals who had completed diploma ptograms

in trade schools and colleges as well as undergraduate,

graduate and professional degrees from universities. A new

dichotomous variable, POSTSEC was created in each data set.

Respondents were coded as either (1) post-secondary

graduates or (0) not post-secondary graduates and were

included or filtered accordingly.

The second criterion which filtered respondents

concerned t h e i r working status a t the time of the survey.

Given that the focus of this research concerneci

underemployment, it was decided t h a t only individuals who

were working at the time of the survey would be included in

the analysis. A second dichotomous variable, WOflKER, was

created in each data set to identify individuals who

indicated work to be the ir main activity at the time of the

survey. Individuals were coded (1) worker or (0) n o t worker

according to their responses and filtered.'

The f i n a l cri ter ion which served as a basis f o r

inclusion or exclusion concerned whether or not a respondent

was self-employed. Although own-account self-ernployment has

been noted as a growing Long-term trend which is sometimes

seen as a component of underemployment (Krahn, 1995 : 37 ) ,

basic cross-tabulations and frequency distributions revealed

that self-employed workers contributed l i t t l e to the overall

levels of underemployment in 1989 and 1994 (F igure 3.1).

While increasing numbers of self-employed individuals have

FiGURE 3.1, UNOEREMPLOYMENT FOR WORKERS VS. WORKERS d SELF-EMPLOYED, ô9 AND 94

E R C I WORKERS E N rn sE&F-€MPLOYED AND WORKERS t A G E

contributed to the overall growth i n non-standard forms of

employment, it was assumed that individuals working for

themselves would be less likely to consider themselves

underemployed . The cross-tabulations and frequency

distributions which were generated on each data-set with and

without self-employed workers seemed to support this

hypothesis. ft is for this reason that self-employed

workers (14.4% in 1989 and 15.1% in 1994) were eliminated

from the analysis.

After filtering al1 of the individuals who did not meet

the above criteria, simple sizes were reduced from 10,500

to 2,086 in the 1989 GSS and from 11,800 t o 2,395 in the

1994 GSS. To reiterate, a l1 of the remaining cases were

individuais who worked at the time of the survey, had

completed aome post-secondary program and were not

self-ernployed. Having reviewed t h e logic underlying the

sub-sample and the criteria upon which inclusion or

exclusion was based, the chapter will now consider each of

the five indicators of underemployment which were used in

this analysis.

According to Livingstone (19961, underemployment can be

measured along at least five dimensions. These dimensions

include structural unemployment, temporary employment,

underuse of employeest knowledge in job performance, formal

job-education mismatch and subjective underemployment (as

perceived by workers) . This t h e s i s considers

underemployment in terms of three ( temporary employment ,

underuse of employees knowledge and sub j ect ive

underemployment) of the five indicators outlined by

Livingstone.

The overall rneasures of underemployment (which will be

discussed in a later section] were cornprised of five

separate indicators of underemployment . Each indicator

captured a different dimension of underemployment. Al1 of

the indicators were present in both of the 1989 and 1994

data-sets. The following section will consider each

indicator individually.

1. rirpo1ltllfrrp T - q W o r k u

The f i r s t indicator of underemployment represented

individuals who were working in a temporary job, but would

have preferred permanent work, Individuals who were either

not working temporarily or who were deliberately working

temporarily received a score of O . Individuals who were

working at a temporary job and who would have preferred a

permanent job received a score of 1.

2. Introlant.ip Pe-- W Q f k u

The second indicator of underemployment measured

underemployment in terms of involuntary part-the work.

Individuals who were either not working part-tirne or working

part-time for sorne reason other than an inability to find

full-time work received a score of O. Individuals who

indicated the they were working part-time because they were

unable to find full-the work were assigned a score of I.

3. Occqp~tion-JdrtcrUolr ReZ&+-Ihnmaa

The third indicator of underernployment considered the

extent to which respondents believed that their current job

was related to their education. The original variable

measured occupational relatedness as either closely related,

somewhat related or not related. Recoding here was not

quite as obvious because of the individuah who answered

that their occupation was sornewhat related to their

education. Ultimately, the wsomewhatw category was recoded

as underemployed because it implies that the individuals

are, at least to some extent, aware of the fact that their

education and occupation are somewhat rnismatched. As with

the prevfous two indicators, two dichotomous variables were

created. Individuals who stated that their jobs were not

related or were only somewhat related were given a score of

(1) underemployed. Individuah who stated a close match

were assigned a score of (O) not underemployed.

4 . OvcrqPriifiad

The fourth indicator of underernployment inquired as to

whether or not individuals considered themselves to be

overqualified for their current job. The post-secondary

graduates who believed that they were overqualified for

their occupations were given a score of (1) while those who

believed themselves not to be overqualified were assigned a

score of ( O ) .

S. k.r@ Ski22

The final indicator of underemploymeat was derived from

a variable which measured the extent to which individuals

agreed or disagreed that thei r jobs required a high level of

s k i l l . Individuals who agreed, agreed somewhat and/or

agreed strongly with the statement were assigned a score of

(0) Respondents who disagreed, disagreed somewhat or

disagreed strongly were assigned a score of (1).

To summarize, f ive indicators of underemployment were

selected from the 1989 and 1994 General Social Surveys.

These indicators measured underemployment in terms of

involuntary temporary work, involuntary part-tirne work,

whether or not the respondentsl job was related to his/her

education, whether or not the respondent perceived

him/herself to be overqualified for his/her occupation and,

finally, whether or not the respondent agreed that h i d h e r

occupation required a high levei of s k i l l .

1. -ml-t Sc0f88

Wavfng recoded each indicator so that the underemployed

in each instance received a score of one, a continuous

rneasure of underemployrnent was calculated by simply t ak ing

the sum of a l1 the five speclfic indicators of

underemployment.

It should be noted that this measure of underemployment

does not weight the five components. It is also important

to emphasize that while this measure of underemployment

indicates the extent to which an individual is

underemployed, it does not provide an indication as to the

nature of the underemployment. However t h i s measure is

valuable in that al1 of the indicators which are included in

this measure of underemployment represent a dimension of

underemployment in past research, and this measure does

provide a comparable estimation of the extent to which

various respondents experienced underemployment in each of

the survey years. Thus, while this measure of

underemplopent has its limitations, it remains relatively

sound.

2. DiCho- -1-t SCOT^^

From the interval level measure of underemployment, a

dichotomous measure of underemployment was created which

categorized respondents as either underemployed or not

underemployed. This variable w a s created by recoding the

continuous measures of underemployment so t ha t individuals

with scores ranging from 1 to 5 (varying levels of

underexuployment) were combined into one measure of

underemployment (1, underemployed) . Those with scores of O

on the intenral measure of underemployment were coded with a

(0, not underemployed) on the dichotomous measure of

underemployment.

Ultimately, this thesis attempts to determine whether

or not post-secondary graduates experienced greater

underemployment in 1994 than they experienced in 1989. Tt

explores the occupational effects of the 1990-1992 recession

on post-secondary graduates and investiqates the experiences

of post-seconda- graduates in the labour market in 1989 and

in 1994, Given the theoretical and empirical literature

review up to this point, the research questions to be

explored in the descriptive analysis are as follows:

Given that the focus of this analysis is

undermployment, this first question is asked to detennine

the level of underemployment reported by post-secondary

graduates in the 1989 and 1994 GSS. This question will be

addressed in the descriptive analysis which follows in the

next section of this chapter,

Previous research (reviewed in Chapter 2 ) suggested

significant differences between various majors, levels of

study, age groups, industries and gender with reference t o

underemployment. One would expect t h a t these dif ferences

would also exist in t h e 1989 and 1994 GSS* This question

will be addressed in the descriptive analysis.

Chapter 1 reviewed literature which indicated t h a t

Canadian workers are experiencing significant anxiety and

fear concerning the future of work. One would expect to

f i n d an increase in the instability perceived by Canadian

workers with regards to their jobs in the 1994 GSS (as

compared to the 1989 GSS) .

The indicators of underemployment which indicate

underemployment i n terms of contingent work leave l i t t le

room for subjective interpretation. An increase in

non-standard forms of employment represents not only truly

objective evidence of an increase in underemployment among

Canadian post-secondary graduates but also a fundamental

change in the way in which Canadians experience work.

As work in Canada becornes more polarized, one would

expect that more educated workers w i l l need to resort t o

employment in "badtl service sectors while employment i n

"goodn service sectors wilf decline, Given the recession,

and subsequent restructuring (particularly with reference t o

t h e publ ic sector), one expects to find a decline in t h e

number of graduates ernployed in "goodW jobs and an increase

in the number of workers employed in "bad jobst* .

The results of the descriptive analysis w i l l guide the

initial mode1 which is tested in the following chapter. The

research questions examined in t h i s chapter will provide the

basis for predicting the multivariate models which will be

tested in Chapter 4 .

3.6 &~CZ/Btilm Rama!lt8

Before considering the specific research questions

presented in the previous section, this section will review

the frequency distributions by major, level of study, age

and gender for each survey year.

The majority of post-secondary graduates in the 1989

sample majored in business (23.0 percen t ) , followed by

engineering (22.9 percent), humaniries and social science

(17 . 9 percent) and health science (10.8 percent) . The

lowest percentages were reported in f i n e and applied arts

( 4 . 4 percent) , and biological science (4-1 percent) ,

With reference to level of study, 1 0 . 6 percent of the

graduates had Master's or Doctorate degrees, 31-6 percent

had bacheior or undergraduate degree, 25 .1 percent had

diplornas or certificates from college and 32.7 percent had

diplornas or certificates from trade schools.

The sub-sample was fairly equally comprised of males

and females ( 5 4 . 0 percent and 46.0 percent, respect i v e l y ) . The age group 25-29 contributed the greatest percentage of

respondents at 8 . 6 percent, followed by 35-39 (17.9

percent) and 30-34 (17.5 percent).

In the 1994 sub-sample, the percentage of individuals

who graduated from engineering programs increased to 24.8

percent giving engineering the greatest share of

respondents. Business declfned s l i g h t l y to 22.7 percent,

followed by humanities and social science which also

declined slightly to 15.3 percent. Bfological s c i e n c e and

f i n e and applied arts continued to hold the lowest

percentage of graduates.

Individuals possessing graduate and profess ional

degrees comprised 12.8 percent of t h e 1 9 9 4 sample. The

percentage of the sample possessing bachelor degrees or

undergraduate cert if icates declined to 30.7 percent.

College diplomas increased to 32.4 percent while trade

diplomas declined to 24 .0 percent.

As i n 1989, the distribution of males and females was

comparable a t 51 .6 percent and 48.4 percent . The top four

age categories were 30-34 (18.5 percent), 40-44 (16 .4

percen t ) , 25-29 (16 .2 percent) and 35-39 (15 .8 p e r c e n t ) .

Qtmstiool 1: R a t e s o f -1-t fa 1989 and 1994

The dichotomous measure of underemployment revealed

that i n 1989, 51.8 percent of al1 post-secondary graduates

reported underemployment on at least one of the five

indicators . Furthes detail was provideci by the interval

measure of underemployment. According to this rneasure, 48.2

percent of graduates reported no underemployment, 31.2

percent were underemployed with reference to one indicator,

13.7 percent were underemployed with reference to two and

6.2 percent, 0.7 percent and 0 . 0 percent were underemployed

indicators, with reference to three, four and five

respectively.

Overall rates of underemployment appeared to improve

very L i t t l e in 1994. The dichotornous measure of

underemployrnent found 50.4 percent of the graduates to be

underemployed. With reference to the interval measure of

underemployment, 49.6 percent of the sub-sample reported no

underemployment, 30.7 percent, 12.4 percent, 5 . 9 percent,

1 . 3 percent and 0 . 1 percent of the sub-sample reported

underemployment on 1, 2 , 3 , 4, and 5 of the indicators

respectively. To summarize, slightly more of these

respondents reported no measure of underemployment in 1994,

however, slightly more respondents also reported

underemployment on four indicators of underemployment. It

woulci appear that rates of rtnderemployment were rather high

in both 1989 and 1994.t

-8-0n 2: &088- -~ Oil ,-hr m-m

Cross-tabular analysis revealed significant

of the determinants of relationships between al1

underemployment on the measure

underemployment in 1989 and 1994. While ra tes o f

underemployment for men decreased from 52 percent in 1989 to

48 percent i n 1994, rates of underemployment f o r women

increased from 48 percent in 1989 t o 52 percent i n 1994. As

noted, gender and the dichotomous measure of underemployment

were significantly related in both of the survey years,

Graduates of Arts, Social Science and Humanities and

Bealth Science experienced slight increases in

underemployment between 1989 and 1994 (Table 3.1), while

graduates of most other d i s c i p l i n e s enjoyed decreased rates

of underemployment. It should be noted, however, that rates

o f underemployment remained relatively high in s p i t e o f the

decreases. The fact that graduates of engineering and

health science experienced relatively high rates of

underemployment is indicative of t h e fact that

underemployrnent in the 1989 and 1994 GSS was not only

experienced by graduates of less technical programs.

Workers i n business and community services experienced

s l ight increases i n underemplopent between 1989 and 1994

(Table 3.2). These increases are somewhat disconcerting

given the fact that j o b s in community services would tend tu

be "bettern service sector jobs. The highest overall rate

of underemployment was 67 percent for workers in retail and

personal services. It is interesting to note, however, that

t h i s rate w a s dom frorn 75 percent i n 1989,

While there was little change, individuals with

graduate degrees experienced increases i n underemployment

between 1989 and 1994,

degree and certif icate

school graduates enjoyed

rates of underemployment

while graduates of undergraduate

programs, and college and trade

a minor decline in their respective

(Table 3 . 3 ) .

I p l o f Edueation

rduata Degr- gradua- Degree/Diploiu

ollage D s p l o a a xade School D i p l - i

Finâlly, rates of underemployment were highest fo r the

youngest graduates i n the sample (Table 3 - 4 ) . These rates

reached 90 percent in 1994 ( d m from aïmost 100 percent in

19891, Individuals between the ages of 30 and 34 a s well as

those between the ages of 40-44, 45-49 and 55-59 experienced

increases in rates of underemployment between 1989 and 1994.

It is important to recognize that these f indings would seem

to contradict the general view of underemployment which

identifies it as a temporary problem associated with young

people in the t r a n s i t i o n from school to work. Rather, these

data would seem to suggest that, with the exception of the

youngest cohort of graduates, underemployment was widely and

equally distributed across a l1 of t he aga categories in both

of the sub-samples.

The extremely high rates of underemployment for the

youngest cohort of post-second- graduates in 1989 and 1994

could be due t o the short amount of t h e that these

individuals would have spent in the work-force. Individuals

within t h i s age group were l i k e l y very recent graduates

moving from school to work. It is quite possible that these

young graduates had not yet found adequate employment which

matched their educational credentials. The data suggest

that these high rates of underemployment would subside with

time spent i n the work-force.

Qwst im 3: Acttul 8ad P u c a i 0 . d Jab &as in 1989 anà 1994 .

The d e t e d n a n t which considered the extent to which

respondents feared a job loss within the next year and the

determinant which measured actual job loss within the five

years leading up to each survey provided particularly

insightful results (Table 3.5) . These determinants

indicated that while in 1989, 7.1 percent of the respondents

feared the loss of t h e i r job w i t h i n the next year, 1 1 . 8

percent noted t h a t they had i n fact lost a job in the five

years before the survey in 1989. To summarize, the

percentage of respondents who feared an approaching job loss

was malles than the percentage who had actually experienced

a job loss anytime within the previous five years.

Most s t r i k i n g , however, were the frequencies on the two

determinants which considered workersr perceptions and

Tirdurtnt

bbnuf8ct . Conatnxct . Dist. Ser. mt. s a * F+nrnca 8 ~ 8 . SU. C-. Su. Rab. rAinia

experieaces

individuals

of the labour market in 1994. The percentage of

who feared that they might lose their jobs over

the next year more than doubled to 15.5 percent while the

percentage of individuals who had actually lost a job over

the f ive years leading up to 1994 only increased by three

percent to 14 .8 percent. These numbers indicate a

significant increase in the insecurity experienced by

Canadian workers between 1989 and 1994.

It is substantively meaningful and logical that both of

these detenninants would be significantly correlated w i t h

the dichotomous measure of underemployment. One would

expect that warkers who had unstable jobs might be more

l i k e l y t o nega t ive l y evaluate their present occupational

situation. E'urthemore, individuals who had suf fered a j ob

loss might possibly have had to take a less prestigious

occupation or an occupation for which they were

overqualified following an unexpected job loss.

Likewise, individuals who perceived their employment

situation to be precarious and/or experienced anxiety

concerning their short-te- occupational future might also

negatively evaluate t h e i r c u r r e n t ernployment s i tua t ion . A

second p o s s i b i l i t y f o r these individuals is that they were

working i n a temporary o r contract pos i t i on . In this

instance, the logic underlying the correlation between t h i s

determinant and t h e measure of underemployment would be

qui te obvious . With reference t o specific d e t e d n a n t s , Health Science

and Axts' graduates experienced a large increase i n the

extent t o which they feared a job loss within the next year

(from 4 percent in 1989 to 19 percent and from 5 percent t o

23 percent respect ive ly , in 19941, followed by Engineering

and Biological Science graduates whose rates increased from

7 percent t o 17 percent and from 3 percent t o 17 percent.

Signif icant increases were also noted for Education

graduates whose rates increased from 5 percent i n 1989 t o 16

percent i n 1994.

Individuals working i n community services experienced

the greatest increase in concern over job loss (from 5

percent i n 1989 to 17 percent in 1994), fo l lowed by w o r k e r s

i n the primary sector, distributive services, business

services, and public administration, whose rates increased

by between seven and eight percent (see Table 3.5).

Interestingly, the fear regarding job loss was shared

by workers of al1 ages, with the greatest increase occurring

within the youngest cohort of workers (from 14 percent i n

1989 t o 53 percent i n 1994), followed by workers between the

ages of 45-49 whose rates increased from 2 percent in 1989

to 20 percent in 1994. The fear expressed by the

individuals between the ages of 45 and 49 is both disturbing

and telling; it substanciates the widespread belief that

older workers no longer enjoy the job security and comfort

tha t once came with time spent i n the labour force. Fear of

job loss and underemployment are most ce r t a in ly not

experienced only by younger workers.

Finally, an increase in the potential f o r perceived job

loss vas experienced by individuals possessing al1 levels of

pst-secondary education. These increases were greatest for

c o l l e g e graduates, followed by trade school graduates, and

individuals w i t h graduate or professional degrees.

Increases in rates of actual job loss, however, were

less dramatic. With regards to the major area of study,

minor increases were experienced by Education and Health

Science graduates. Engineering and Art graduates

experienced more substantial increases. With reference to

industry, increases i n jobs lost i n the f ive years leading

up to each survey were highest for individuals working in

business services followed by manufacturing, and retail and

personal. services,

Rates of job loss increased most for individuals

between the ages of 25 and 2 9 (from 15 percent in 1989 to 22

percent in 1994), followed by individuals between the ages

of 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49, whose rates displayed

significant increases. With reference to level of study,

job l o s s increases were highest for profess ional graduates.

Rates for these individuals fncreased from 5 percent i n 1989

t o 12 percent in 1994.

The fact that so many post-secondary graduates feared a

job loss by 1994 vis-a-vis the relatively small increase in

the number of graduates who actually experienced a job loss

between 1989-1994 speaks to the impact of the recession upon

the attitudes of workers. There is no doubt tha t the

economic t u m o i l of the early nineties left its mark on

Canadian workers.

O f those who were underemployed in 1989, 46 percent

be l i eved that they were overqualified for their positions, 4

percent were working part-time invo luntar i ly , 72 percent

s t a t e d that their jobs were unrelated to their education, 23

percent disagreed that their job w a s highly-s k i l l e d and 10

percent were working temporarily on an involuntary basis.

O f those who were underemployed in 1994, 47 percent

considered themselves t o be overqualified f o r their c u r r e n t

occupation, 7 percent of sespandents were working part-the

on an involuntary basis, 69 percent of the underemployed

stated that t h e i r occupation was unrelated to t h e i r

education, 24 percent disagreed that t h e i r occupation was

highly-skilled and 13 percent indicated that they were

working in a temporary posit ion involuntarily . I t is

fnteresting t o note that bath of the objective indicators

showed a slight increase, while al1 of the subjective

indicators showed a decrease. Non-standard forms of

employment were indicators of underemployment that did

increase between 1989 and 1994 for working post-secondary

graduates; this is highly suggestive of the changing nature

of work, most notably an Fncrease in chronic and long-tem

underemployment. Correlations between each indicator and

the dichotomous measure of underemployment in 1989 and 1994

are provided in Table 3.6.

Indicator ContSngoncp Coefficient 1989 1994

Ovmxqurlified ,47689 ,47056 Xmmluatuy Part-T* ,14020 .17642 Job H o t Wrted . 58851 . SB629 lJob N o t Skilled ,34000 .32673 Iav011mtaty Tamporr+p ,22281 ,26557

Community services employed the greatest percentage

(38.9 percent) of post-seconda- graduates in 1989, followed

by publ ic administration (13.9 percent) and manufacturing

(16.1 percent). Etetail and personal services provîded

enplopent for 9.3 percent of the graduates, w h i l e business

services employed 7 . 3 percent. Construction employed the

lowest percentage of graduates at 3.6 percent.

While conmiunity services continued to employ t h e

g r e a t e s t percentage of graduates in 1994 ( 29.7 percent) ,

persona1 and consumer services provided the second g r e a t e s t

percentage o f jobs ( 1 4 . 5 ) followed by public administration

which declined to 10.8 percent. While manufacturing

declined slightly to 14.4 percent, business services

increased t o 8 . 1 percent . Construction rentained at the

bottom of the list employing only 2.9 percent of graduates.

The increase i n the percentage of graduates employed in

retail and personal services, combined with the increased

rates o f underemployment for graduates working in community

semices (which was indicated in the discussion of the first

research question) warrants concern. Many retai1 and

personal service occupations are infamous for their poor

working condi t ions , low wages and instability.

Post-secondary graduates employed i n such positions are very

likely underemployed and an increase in the percentage of

graduates filling these positions is disheartening to say

t h e least.

9 . 7 QUpt.t

This chapter began with a review of the data-set,

sub-sample, and indicators and measures of underemployment

which were used i n this thesis. The chapter then went on to

consider the results of the descriptive analysis of the

dichotomous measure of underemployment in an attempt to

better understand the nature and extent of underemployment

as it was experienced by post-secondary graduates in 1989

and 1994. The analysis suggested that while the actual rate

of underemployment changed very litt le between 198 9 and

1994, the nature of underemployment changed in some very

important ways . Where in 1994 underemployment was more

likely to be an objective reality (a non-standard job for

example), in 1989 underemployment was more likely to be a

subjective perception. While rates of underemploymenr:

decreased slightly between 1989 and 1994, for those who were

underemployed more severe underemployment was encountered in

1994. Underemployed individuals in 1994 were more l i k e l y to

experience underemployment with reference ro more than one

indicator.

Rates of underemployment were highest for younger

workers, retail workers and graduates of Arts , Humanities

and S o c i a l Science. Conrmunity service workers experienced

increased rates of underemployment in 1994.

Workers were noticeably affected by the econornic

t u m o i 1 which plagued Canadians throughout the early

n i n e t ies . Respondents reported significantly increased

concern over the stability of their current work situation,

and this anxiety was experienced by al1 workers, at al1

l e v e l s , and of a l 1 ages. The security o f profess ional

graduates ( L e . , education, health sciences) who experienced

lower overal l rates of underemployment was pa r t i cu l a r ly

undedned by the recession. These graduates experienced

some o f the greatest increases in anxiety concerning the

s tabi l i ty of their cur ren t jobs. It is i ronic that even

graduates who have undertaken an academic program which has

prepared them ta fil1 p o s i t i o n s which are apparently lack ing

qualified workers are reporting such underemployment and

anxiety,

With reference to the indicators, objective

underemployment, namely in the form of contingent work

increased between 1989 and 1994 (this suggested by the

increased number of graduates who indicated underemployment

on one of the two objective indicators) , providing strong

evidence of a move towards greater underemployment . While

objective measures of underemployment increased, sub j ect i ve

measures decreased. This, more than anything, suggests that

the problem of underemployment is much more than the result

of an undisciplined work-force with excessive expectations.

The descriptive results provide a starting point at

which one may begin to consider the multivariate model, The

next chapter introduces the initial mode1 and the

assumptions underlying this model. The chapter will go on

to discuss and further develop the multivariate analysis.

It will conclude with a presentation of the final rnodel

which was used to predict underemployment.

'80th samples contained a small n&er of individuals over the age of 65 who worked at the time of the survey, and possessed post-secondary credentials. Because the proportion of respondents in these age categories was minimal, they were also excluded from the analysis.

'A self-report study of underemployment completed by Livingstone (1993:95) between 1982 and 1990 found rates o f underemployment which ranged front 13% to 42% f o r graduates of various post-secondary programs. Redpath (1993:7) reported an overall underemployment rate of 35% f o r university graduates between 1986 and 1988. Redpath's study incorporated both objective and subjective indicators of underemployment .

It is the purpose of this chapter to first review the

multivariate model and the assumptions underlying this

mode1 . This chapter will begin by introducing the

statistical method which was selected for this analysis, as

well as the tests which were conducted to verify that the

assumptions underlying this model were indeed met. The

chapter will go on to introduce and review the initial rnodel

which was developed based upon the results of the

descriptive analysis in the preceding chapter. The chapter

will conclude with a discussion and analysis of the final

model which was developed to predict underemployment in both

1989 and 1994.

To better understand the shape of the distribution of

the interval level measure of underemployment in 1989 and

1994, the variables were analyzed in a quantile-quantile

plot, which revealed a relatively normal, l inear

distribution with a slightly positive skew. This seems

reasonable given that respondents who were underemployed

were mostly underemployed on only one of the £ive indicators

of underemployment.

With an interval-level dependent variable (which

appeared to be relatively normally distributed) and a host

of potential determinants, Ordinary Least Squares regression

was selected as the most appropriate technique for t h e

muitivariate statistical analysis. Before discussing the

i n i t i a l mode1 which was tested in 1989 and 1994 , however, it

is important to discuss the assumptions of OLS.

4.3 U-ff ona of OLS Rwzmssioq

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression makes three

general assumgtions regarding the error term in a given

mode1 (Dometrius, 1992: 434) , The three assumptions are as

follows: the error term must be uncorrelated with the X

variables, the error is normally distributed with a mean of

zero, and finally, the error has a constant variance (no

heteroscedasticity) . Harnilton (1992: LIS), notes that ''we

can use the simple data to check some assumptions, including

linearity, the choice of which X variables to include,

homoscedasticity, no autocorrelation and normality". He

continues:

However, we cannot check certain other assumptions with sample data.,.we assume-.,no correlation between errors and X variables. . . similarly we assume that errors have zero mean,.,And we cannot use the data to tes t whether al1 relevant X variables have been included in the model---infinite possibilities e x i s t (Hamilton, 1992: 112-113) .

A correlation matrix which included al1 of the X variables

used i n t he 1989 and 1994 analyses indicated that

multicollinearity was not present in either of t h e

regression models. The remaining assumptions were verified

with reference to each regression mudel as each mode1 was

tested. The assumptions will be discussed in the context of

each mode1 presented later in the chapter.

Before examining the multivariate models, T a b l e 4.1

presents the tit les of the variables along w i t h the

percentage of v a l i d cases for each variable in the

multivariate analysis. As can be seen, the numbers of

missing cases are mal1 for each variable, and consequently

their exclusion from t h e analysis will not significantly

bias the results.

er for

100 LOO

Dl;anny Variable8 for b& jo r

D m 9 4 DuPMY FOR -TB M D 99.5 DüWàSE89 ENGINEERING QIADOATES 99.1

Dimimy Variable8 for Various Industrie8

(Table 4 . 1 contvd)

Ppmay Variable8 for Gender

The f i r s t multivariate mode1 which was tested for each

year included age, sex, highest level of education

completed, major, industry, occupation and labour m a r k e t

conditions. Identical models were created and tested for

both years to identify changes (whete applicable) in the

level and significance of t h e determinants.

The results from the regression using each year

separately are presented i n Figure 4.1. This i n i t i a l model

predicted almost 15 percent of the total variation in t h e

dependent variable in 1989 and approximately 13 percent of

the total variation in the dependent variable in 1994. The

histogram and probability plot which displayed the

distribut ion of the error tems indicated a distribution

which was relatively normal.

Based upon the standardized beta values in Figure 4.1,

it is evident that the strongest predictors of

underemployment in the 1989 model were those associated with

community service workers, fear of job loss within the next

year, health and engineering science graduates and hi-tech

occupations. Community service workers, health and

engineering science graduates and hi-tech workers were less

likely to be underemployed, while individuals who feared job

loss were more likely to be underemployed. Health and

engineering science, education, business and arts and

humanities were al1 associated with lower rates of

underemployment. Other siqnificant predictors of higher

rates of underemployment in the 1989 model were clerical

workers, traditional service workers, women and workers who

had lost jobs in the five years leading up to the survey.

C

Variableu in the Model

1989 Beta

-, 034215+* HIR FEAR OF JOB LOS8 .190518+*+ EOR JOB LOS8 PAST 5 YgAR8 ,067638*** PPR A R T S / ~ T f E S GRADS -, OUS!%O* FOR BüSXNBSS GRADS - , 053118* FOR EDOCATZOM GRADüAZES -, 049606** I?'OR BEALTH/ENGINEER GRADS -,126351*** EOR -1TY SSR, W o n -, 195559+** EOR Hf -TE- vmRlaR8 -.101102+** H).R -CAL -RS .092223+** FOR LOeSER-LBVEL SEWICES ,098322+**

.062359*** T fiKVEL OF ST[A,Y -TED -.038902**

1,240479***

1994 B e t a -. 059734++ ,150707+** ,096394***

- , 032215 -.054139* - ,043325 -, lO3562*++ -,138966*** -,077067**+

,128305**+ .167162*** .067372**

- , 001512 .965112***

The ssune mode1 was tested as the basis of the 1994

data. It is interesting to note t h a t the amount of

variation explained by the mode1 decreased slightly in 1994.

The model explained about 13 percent of t h e variation i n

underemployment in the 1994 data-set. The histogram and

scatter-plot of the error indicated that the error terms

were relatively normal (perhaps slightly more normal than in

1989), and the scatter-plot suggested homoscedasticity.

Traditional service worker s were most underemployed,

followed by individuals who feared job loss and clerical

workers . Community seinrice workers en j oyed lower rates of

underemployment vis-a-vis the other occupational categories.

While the amount of underemployment predicted by community

service work (associated with lower rates) declined f rom

1989 to 1994, the amount of underemployment predicted by

occupations within the traditional service sector

(associated with higher rates) increased.

In summary, this first model revealed no major changes

i n the d i r ec t i on of t h e relationships between the predictor

variables and the dependent variables between 1989 and 1994.

While the relationships between underemployment and clerical

workers, lower-levef service workers, and those who had lost

a job over the past five years increased, the relationship

between underemployment and fear of job loss, community

service workers, hi-tech workers, and health and engineering

graduates decreased. Education graduates and Arts and

Huaanities graduates, who were significantly less

underemployment in 1989, were not differentially affected by

underemployment by 1994. It is interesting to note that

highest level of education played a rather srnall role, which

was not even statistically s i g n i f i c a n t in 1994.

The second model which was tested on each data-set

considered a series of possible interactions. While a

number of substantively interesting i n t e r a c t i o n s were tested

on each data-set, on ly those which were statistically

signif icant in one or both of the survey years are presented

in this analysis. The significant interactions and the

results of this model on each of the data-sets are

summarized in Figure 4.2. This model considered both a

series of interactions along with the original determinants

which had been included in the first model.

A d j RZ -16095 F 56.74739 S i g P +++

1994 mta

I n t h e 1989 data-set, the strongest interactions were

those between age and traditional service work, highest

level of schooling and business graduates, and between

education graduates and cormnunity service work. These

interactions are substantively meaningful. W e would expect

t h a t older workers (particularly older post-secondary

graduates) working in louer-level service p o s i t i o n s would

consider themselves more severely underemployed. The other

interactions suggested that some level of interplay existed

between subject major and the other determinants (e.g.,

highest l eve l of education attained, occupat ional code,

industrial code) in predicting underernployment. For

example, after introducing the interaction between business

graduates and highest level of education, b u s i n e s s on its

own no longer predicted less underemployment. These

Fnterrelationships were the basis of further analysis which

is presented below.

It is interesting to note that education graduates were

only less underemployed if t h e y worked i n c o m u n i t y

services. For education graduates i n general, rates of

underemployment were higher as indicated by the positive

relationship between education graduat es and

underemployment ,

Interactions also played a significant role in

explaining underemployment in 1994. The second model, which

included a series of i n t e r a c t i o n s , improved the total

proportion of variance explained (from -13100 in the first

model to .15221 in the second). The results from this

regression are also summarized in Figure 4.2.

There was a strong, significant interaction between the

variable which measured highest level of schooling and the

d w y for traditional service work. The standardized beta

value for traditional service workers, which was .l67l6Z in

the first model, increased substantially to -.609782 in this

second model. The value of this variable was the second

highest in the model, preceded only by the interaction

between highest level of schooling and the dummy for

lower-level service work. Although the value of this

interaction would seem high, the strength of this

r e l a t i o n s h i p rnakes sense given the descriptive results

presented in the preceeding chapter, where it was noted

that by 1994, the number of post-seconda- graduates working

in traditional services had almost doubled. The descriptive

results also indicated that the number of individuals with

graduate and professional degrees and col lege diplomas had

increased by 1994. Individuah with higher levels of

education would be most l i k e l y to experience higher rates of

underemployment in traditional services, and given that

there were more graduates with higher educational

credentials working in these occupations the strength of

this interaction makes sense. It is also noteworthy that

once the in terac t ion is included, the main effect shows that

traditional service workers are subject t o less

underemployment . That is, the high underemployment in this

sector only involves those who have higher education.

The resu l t s of the regression mode1 which included

interactions also suggested that business graduates who

pursued higher levels of education experienced lower rates

of underemployment. It is interest ing to note that after

controlling for this interaction, business graduates in

general experienced higher rates of underemployment. These

results emphasized the fact tha t there were important

differences between levels of education with reference t o

certain subject majors, and that a given subject major alone

was not enough to ensure lower underemployment. Rather, the

combination of level of study and subject major were crucial

t o understanding underemployment.

4 . 5 &&.Ztt828 mth+n a t . ~ o e e 8 of

To better understand t h e interactions, as well as the

way i n which underemployment differed across categories of

respondents which produced significant interactions, a

further analysis was pursued for each level of study, each

major and the two sexes. The determinants (highest level of

study completed, major and gender) were selected f o r f u r t h e r

analysis because of their importance in predicting

underemployment in prtvious literature and i n t he

interactions which were discussed i n the previous section.

T h i s analysis will provide a clearer indication of how

underemployment was experienced by dif f erent ma j ors, levels

of educat ion and genders The following section will

present the results of the regression of the model presented

in Figure 4.2 on each level of education, major and gender.

1. Iu@œst &lm2 Of ~ ~ t i a u

One of t h e most interesting determinants

multivariate analysis was highest level of education

of the fact that it was largely not significant on

in the

because

its own

but presented some interesting results when it was analyzed

in interactions with other variables.

The results of the regression analysis on each level of

education in 1989 and 1994 are presented in Table 4.3. This

model predicted the greatest amount of variation for

individuals with undergraduate degrees and certificates and

individuals with graduate and professional degrees.

Fear of f u t u r e job loss was the one determinant which

predicted greater underemployment for post-secondary

graduates regardless of the highest level of study. This

cietenninant was significant across categories i n both years

with the exception of professional graduates in 1989.

W i t h r e f e rence t o sub ject major, individuals with

post-secondary training at the undergraduate and graduate

Figure 4.3: Regremsion of Mode1 #2 on Eauh Level of Eduaation

~j ~2 .13948*** .10154*** AOE N . 8. N,8. DUMANX ,206094*** , l5Wl4** DülWW -,09&127** N.8. DUMBUS N.B. ,188124** DUMCLE -, 061472* N.S. D W û M -,137543*** N.B. DUMEDU N . B . N . B . DUMFEM ,155102**+ ,335625** D W Z T -,096520*** -,082145* D W 8 E - , lS63û** N, 8, D W -,160957** N.8, D W W 8 Nv8, N.8, -*LI@ ,273729*** N.S. IAGE*WS N.8. NeBe XEDU*COM-,051804* N.S. XSEX*HSE N .S. N,S. ISEX*HIT N . S . N.B. (CONSTANT) l,O?649%*** ,436527**

Na756 Mm626

College Undergrad 1989 1994 1989 1994

.282957*** .14910*+* .28050+*+ .26071*+*

- O 127415** NOS. -.062751* -.173522**+ .199128*** .133341** .267137*** ,113174** N.8. N.8. N.8. - . 061287* .084571* N-8, -,085663** -.098694* .196596*** .194760*** ,246497*** .123905+* -.208767*** N,8, -,187573**+ -,127078* N.S. N,S. .114765* ,240278**

-,062117** N.8, N.S, .118130** -,048225** -.096937* -.140031*** -,163271** -.241378**+ N.8, N . 8 , N,8. N*8* NeS. *143873*** N.8, N.B. ,125653* N. 8. Ne89 N e 8 , N.B. N.B. .361216** N.S. N.8, N.B. N.8. N , 8 ? N.8, -,203257*** -,336431*** .184093+ N, 8. -, 053279* -, 146014** -,077977* N.8, N . 8 . Ne$, 1.405620*** ,737957*** .902872*** 1,216947*** Mm456 N=742 Na667 Na737

AGE-AOE GùûüP DWWX=DIBW:FEAR OF JOB LX)SS DIJMARH-DW :ARTü/HUMANITIE8 ORADUATES D ~ 8 = D ~ : B ü 8 I N P , S S ORADüATE8 DUMCLE-DtB8W:CLERICAL OCCUPATIONS DVm:oM.iDIRMY:CCIWWITY 8EWICE WORKERS DüMEDU=DUWY : BDUCATION GRADUATE8 D l M E W = D m : W W E M DIIMHXltiD?M4%:HI-TECH OCCUPATION8

D U M H S E - D M : HEALTH/ENGX!WZERXNG GRADUA!PES DWLLS=DUMY : TRADI TIONAL SEWICES D W S - D m : JOB WSS PA8T 5 YEARS IAæ*LLS=INTERACTZON : AGE *TRADXTXONAZ, 8ERVICE8 ZAGE*LXIB=IN'PERACTl[ûN: -*JOB W S S PST 5 YR8 IEDU*COM.IINTERACTICW EDUCATION*~XTY SEFUVICE ISEX*HSE=INIPERACTION: GENDER*HEALTH/ENGINEERING SCIENCE ISEX*HIT..INT);RACTXON: GENDEWHZ-TECH OCCUPATIûNS

levels in education and counselling experienced higher rates

of underemployrnent in both 1989 and 1994, Business

graduates at these levels of education experienced lower

rates of underemployment in both survey years. Decreased

rates of underemployment were particularly evident for

individuals who had completed graduate and professional

degrees . The analysis of the relationship between employment in

traditional services and underemployment for each level of

study was particularly revealing . While employment within

traditional services predicted lower rates of

underemployment for trade school graduates, it was

associated with higher underemployment for undergraduates

and individuals who ha3 completed graduate and professional

degrees , These findings provide clarification with

seference to the findings which were presented in Figure

4.2. where, after controlling for the interaction between

highest level of education and traditional service work

(which was a predictor of greater underemployment),

employment in traditional semices was associated with lower

rates of underemployemnt. Employment in the traditional

service s e c t o r would most likely not be problematic for some

of the individuals who had pursued courses of study at the

trade school or college level.

There were interesting differences between the levels

of education with reference to rates of underemployment for

individuals who had experienced a job loss in the five years

leading up to each survey. While a job loss was associated

with higher rates of underemployment for individuals with

college and undergraduate training, it was associated with

lower rates of underemployment for individuals who had

completed graduate or professional degrees. Çimply stated,

i n d i v i d u a l s possessing graduate and profession degrees

seemed to demonstrate greater adjustment to job loss. This

could be due to the fact that advanced academic programs

provided graduates with more bargaining power in the

labour-market. In this instance, it was evident that higher

educational credentials were well rewarded.

Female graduates of trade and undergraduate programs

experienced higher rates of underemployment in 1989 and 1994

respectively. The interact ion between gender and hea l th and

engineering science revealed that female graduates of health

and engineering science programs experienced higher rates of

underemployrnent at the college level. Women who had

graduated from these programs at the undergraduate level,

however, experienced lower rates of underemployment. Women

seemed to benefit from higher levels of education where

post-secondary training was undertaken in traditionally

male-dominated f i e l d s . Women working in hi-tech jobs who

held professional and graduate degrees experienced

s i g n i f icantly lower rates of underemployment . A further

analysis of the determinants of underemployment for men and

women is provided in the following sec t ion which considered

each gender separately.

2. Gend&r

Considering regression mudels for men and women

separately allows for an observation of the possible

differences in the detenninants of underemployment for each

gender (Figure 4 . 4 ) . The regression mode1 explained 15

percent of the variat ion i n underemployment for men in both

B e t a Beta Beta

- , 13=46++ - . 035733* NOS, -154233*** ,180152*** .137513*++ N,S. N.8. NOS, N-8, NOS, N O S , . l46S66*+* .053672++ , O82853*

-,078551+ -.207777+** -,119328** N O S , .081582*+ N . 8 ,

-,089580** -,090802*** -,067909* Nos, --065067+** -. 153630***

-, 45400W N o S . -.810038*** N.S. N . 8 , N.S. NOS* NOS. NOS* .193879* .219946**+ N.S. ,231563+ .085408* N.S. -. 136554* -, IS9122*** -, 171715** N.8, N.S. -. 382521* N.8. H.S. NoS.

.467541++ N.S. .043233+* ,648806**+ f,210124*** 1.097932+*+

years. The same mode1 predicted 18 percent of the variation

in underemployment for women in 1989, and 15 percent of the

variation in underemployment for women in 1994.

In both survey years, fear of job loss and clerical

occupations were predictors of higher underemployment for

men and women. Professional occupations in science and

technology and community services were associated with lower

rates of underemploynent for both of the genders in both

survey years.

There are not large differences by gender, as indicated

by the observation that al1 signif icant effects are i n the

same direction for men and women. One of the differences i n

the predictors of underemployment for men and women involved

the interaction between gender and business which w a s

associated with lower rates of underemployment for women in

1994. That is, women who pursued post-secondary training in

business at higher levels of study experienced significantly

lower rates of underemployment . Also interesting w a s the relationship between gender

and employment i n the traditional service sector. Although

the direction and significance of these relationships were

similar regardless of gender, there were large differences

in the strength of the predic tors with reference t o gender.

For example, although the interaction between tradi t ional

service work and highest level of education was

significantly related to higher underemployment f o r both men

and women, the value of t h i s in t erac t ion was -467541 for

men, (1994) and -843233 for women (1994). Similarly, the

variable for empl~yment in traditional services which

predicted lower underemployment for botn genders was

-.454000 for men (1994) and -.810838 for women ( 1 9 9 4 ) .

Although there is no difference in the nature of these

re la t i onsh ips for either gender (that is the d i r e c t i o n o f

the re la t i onsh ips is the same for both men and women), tne

subs tant ia l difference i n the value of these re la t i onsh ips

is interesting. The fact t h a t the re la t ionsn ip in

instances was so much stronger for women would sugges t

traditional service work is more s trongly associated

wornen workers .

80th

tha t

witn

A final analysis considered the basic regression model

and interactions for each major field of study. Because

this analysis considered the model for eight sub j ect majors

i n both survey years, the interpretation of these data is

more cornplex (Figure 4 . 5 ) . The mode1 predicted the greatest

amount of variation for education graduates, followed by

graduates of health and engineering science, biology and

arts. The findings indicated significant differences with

reference to the relationships between the determinants and

given subject majors. Some of the important findings are

discussed in the following section.

Clerical occupations were generally associated with

higher rates of underemployment for al1 of the subject

majors (with the exception of biological science).

Employment in community services was also generally

associated with lower rates of underemployment regardless of

subject major. For education graduates, graduates of

biological science, engineering, health sciences and

humanities and social sc ience , employment i n the traditional

I: u * * C * L: * * 2 m o w u, ri- O

O L O M QD N O ab c- g n, O O *FI * i n C u . - 4 w V) m œ O 1 m O i D u a ~ ~ O D Q P ~ ~ a 2 . Y1 (D F - Q * i o = *ap It

q z 4 * * O O o Z u i Z o ~ z z z z z ~ z z 0 , * 1 1

A

u * \O 4 rr)

m m w i i f

was a significant predictor of

Not surprisingly individuals with h i g h

service sector

underemployment . levels of study who were employed in the traditional service

sector also experienced higher rates of underemployment for

most of the subject majors in 1994.

While higher levels of education predicted lower rates

of underemployment for humanities and s o c i a l science

graduates (19891, business graduates (1989 and 1994) and

biology graduates (1989), t h i s was not t h e case for

engineering or health science graduates. For individuals

with spec ia l i za t ion in the latter di sc ip l ines , higher

education predicted higher rates of underemployment. One

interesting exception, however, were older and more highly

educated engineering and health science graduates who were

associated with lower rates of underemployment. Older

graduates with higher levels of training in engineering and

health science entered a labour market where cornpetition for

good jobs was not nearly as fierce as it has been for more

recent graduates. Furthemore, some might argue that older

graduates entered a labour market where better jobs were

available with greater frequency. These findings suggest

that while higher levels of educational training in

engineering and health s c i e n c e were once associated with

lower rates of underemployment, the rewards for completing

such advanced courses of study i n these fields are currently

quest ionable.

Fear of job loss predicted higher underemployment for

humanities and social science graduates, business graduates

and engineering science graduates in both survey years.

This is interesting in i tself because it suggests that fear

of job loss predicted greater underemployment for a rather

representative variety of subject majors (that i s , those

which are general and specific, arts based and science

based) .

Final ly , women who had graduated from prograrns in Arts,

Business and Engineering experienced higher rates of

underemployment in 198 9, Women who had pursued

post-secondary t r a i n i n g in mathemat ics, however, en j oyed

Lower rates of underemployment in the same year.

4 .6 Diaauai of

The r e s u l t s of the r n u l t i ~ r i a t e analysis suggested that

t h e r e were indeed d i f f e r e n c e s between majors, industries,

occupations, levels of education, and age groups i n tems o f

r a t e s o f underemployment. While underemplopent was

g e n e r a l l y higher at younger ages, t h e r e was an i n t e r e s t i n g ,

positive i n t e r a c t i o n between age and lower-level service

work. That is, older persons in traditional service

occupations were subject to higher rates of underemployment.

Post-secondary graduates who feared a future job loss as

w e l l as those who had experienced a job loss i n the years

leading up to each survey experienced higher r a t e s of

underemployment . Some important changes occurred between 198 9 and 1994.

While community service workers continued to experience

lower rates of underemployment i n 1994, the strength of this

relationship declined. At the same time, workers with

higher levels o f education who were working i n the

traditional semice s e c t o r were very strongly associated

with higher underexnployment. In addition, older workers who

were employed i n traditional services continued to

experience higher rates of underemployment. The decline in

the relationship between community service workers and lower

rates of underemployment combined with the underemployemnt

experienced by older and more highly educated workers in the

traditional service sector suggests that occupational

prospects for post-secondary graduates were less attractive

by 1994 . More graduates wfth higher levels of education

were working i n traditional services, and community services

was less readily associated with lower underemployment.

Moreover, while education graduates working i n

community services were more l ikely to report themselves

properly employed by 1994, occupational opportunities for

those n o t in cornmunity services wete questionable. A

similar situation existed for business graduates whose rates

of underemployment were substantially lower only a t higher

levels o f education. Thus, simply completing

post-secondasr training i n business was not enough to ensure

lower rates of underemployment (in fact In 1994, business

majors experienced higher rates of underemployemnt ) . These

difierences are important because they suggest t h a t the

relationship between subject major and underemployment must

be understood in the context of other occupational

realtities. Underemployment is sometimes understood as the

result of undertaking a general liberal arts program rather

than a more specific program in science or t echno logy .

These findings Fndicate that underemployment cannot easily

be attributed to certain majors and that it is better

understood in terms of these subject majors in conjunction

with particular industries or levels of education.

It is reasonable to expect that more highly educated

workers employed in occupations within the traditional

service sector would experience highet underemployment. It

is interesting to n o t e that once the interactions were

introduced in the second rnodel (Figure 4 . 2 ) , traditional

service work was associated with lower rates of

underemployment. Analysis within each level of education

helped to explain this interaction, which could possibly be

understood in terms of the occupations which were

categorized as traditional service work. This category

included occupations in food services, accomodation and

personal apparel and furnishings, occupations which might

not necessarily be mismatched for college or trade school

graduates (for instance, hospitality, retail management) ,

but for which university graduates would tend to be

overquali f ied . Using the analysis to further explore

underemployment for each level of education helped to

c la r i fy this relationship.

Considering each level of education separately

suggested that employment in the traditional service sector

was a source of underemployment for post-secondary graduates

who had pursued higher levels of study. Kowever , the

results cautioned against generalizing these findings to

individuals who had pursued post-secondary education at the

trade school level. Generally, the findings of the analysis

with reference to each level of education suggested some

important differences between post-secondary graduates of

varying levels of study. While traditional service work

was generally associated with higher underemployment this

was not the case for trade school graduates for whom

traditional service occuptions rneant lower rates of

underemployment,

Women benefitted from higher levels of education,

especially where they had pursued employment and/or

education in traditionally male-dominated fields. While

lower levels of education were associated with higher rates

of underemployment for women, training at the undergraduate

and professional levels led to lower rates of

underemployment,

Moreover, the analysis on each gender suggested that

employment w i t h i n the traditional service sector di f f ered

with relation to underemployment for males and females.

While the direction of the relationships between traditional

service work and underemployment were the same fo r men and

women, the value of these relationships was significantly

higher for wornen. For female graduates of programs in

business, higher levels of education were associated with

significantly lower rates of underemployment. Both sexes

benefitted from occupations in community services and

training in health and engineering science. However, while

health and engineering science predicted lower rates of

underemployment for women in both 1989 and 1994, for men

health and engineering science was associated with lower

rates of underemployment in 1989 only.

Finally, the analysis of each major revealed important

d i f ferences i n the deteminants of underemployment . It was

interesting to note that advanced study did not necessarily

result i n reduced rates of underemployment. For graduates

of health science and engineering, higher levels of study

were actually associated with higher rates of

underemployment. This could be a potential indication of

increased occupational expectations on the part of these

graduates or it could be an indication of the absence of

employment opportunities which truly rnatched the level of

t r a i n i n g and credentials t h a t these graduates had to offer.

Overall, these results indicate that the problem and

nature of underemployment for post-secondary graduates is

complex and cause for sorne concern. The increase in the

extent to which workers with higher levels of education

working within the traditional service sector experienced

underemployment suggests that the nature of underemployment

was different in 1994, even if the problem of

underemployment (in terms of the overall rate) did not

dramatically increase. Older and more educated workers in

the traditional service sector are particularly vulnerable

to underemployment. This combined with a decrease in the

relationship between comuni ty services and lower rates of

underemployment would seem to complicate the problem. The

fact that professional degrees (like education, health

sciences and engineering) contributed very L i t t l e in terms

of predicting underemployment in 1994 would suggest that

simply choosing a professional major is not enough to ensure

matched or adequate employment .

This chapter began by introducing and discussing the

assumptions of Ordinary Least Squares regression. The

chapter went on to present two regression models which

initially included a series of dumrny variables and went on

to i n c h d e a series of significant interactions to predict

underemployment. The first mode1 which was applied to each

data-set included j u s t a series of dummy variables (based

upon the descriptive analysis in Chapter 31, explained 15

percent of the variation in 1989 and approximately 13

percent of the variation in 1994.

The second model introduced a series of interactions

which improved both models. The percentage of variation

explained by the second mode1 on t h e 1989 data-set increased

to almost 16 percent. The interactions were more

substantial with reterence to the 1994 model where the

overall variation explained increased t o j u s t over 1 5

percent ,

To better understand the nature of the i n t e r a c t i o n s , the

second model was run on al1 categories of three deterrninants

(level of study, gender and major) which w e r e selected for

further analysis. These f indings suggested that fear of j o b

loss was a determinant of underemployment which predicted

higher underemployment for the majority of post-secondary

graduates in both sub-samples. Many of the graduates

working i n clerical occupations experienced higher rates of

mderemployment . Generally, individuals who worked in

community services experienced lower rates of

underemployment, although the s t r e n g t h of this determinant

decreased between 1989 and 1994.

These analyses produced some i n t e r e s t i n g f indings with

regards t o level of s tudy, gender, age and major.

higher levels of education f o r engineering and

science graduates were generally associated with

rates of underemployment, o l d e r workers did better.

suggested that these r e s u l t s might have reflected

mile

health

higher

It was

greater

occupational o p p o r t u n i t i e s and less compet i t ion w i t h i n the

labour-force, thus allowing older workers to secu re better

p o s i t i o n s .

It was noted that women who pursued educa t iona l

t r a in ing i n traditionally male-dominated fields experienced

lower levels of underemployment . Lower underemployment was

also associated w i t h wornen working i n hi - tech occupations

who had completed t r a i n i n g at these advanced levels. These

findings might suggest t h a t better occupa t iona l

opportunit ies are becoming more readily available to women

who pursue education and employment in such f i e l d s . At the

same the , however, the data suggested t h a t women are still

strongly associated with work in the traditional service

sector.

Generally, while these analyses revealed some

similarit ies between levels, genders and majors, they also

suggested a number o f important d i f ferences . Understanding

the prevalence of underernployment among post-secondary

graduates involves not only a consideration o f determinants

such as gender, level of study, major and occupation, but

more Fmportantly, an understanding of how these determinants

combine to produce higher or lower rates o f underemployment.

This final chapter will begin w i t h a review of t h e

results of the descriptive and multivariate analysis.

Following the statistical r e v i e w , the chapter w i l l discuss

the limitations of this thesis. Finally, the chapter will

consider the contributions of this thesis with reference to

some of the theoretical issues which surround the problem of

underemployment. T h e chapter will conclude with some final

thoughts . 5.2 ~ O W of ths martistive rpd =--&te

The descriptive analysis was placed in the context of

five general research questions which were introduced in the

third chapter. Brief ly, the questions inquired as to the

overall rates of underemployment for post-secondary

graduates in 1989 and 1994; the differences in the rates of

underemployment by major, level of study, age, gender and

industry in each year; the level of anxiety w i t h regard to

fear of job loss; the experience of actual job loss in the

previous five years; the nature of underemployment in both

1989 and 1994; and finally, how underemployment was

experienced by workers i n different indus tr i e s and i f the

industries employing post-secondary graduates changed

between 1989 and 1994.

The descriptive analysis found a comparatively high

although stable rate of underemployment in both 1989 and

1994. The rate of underemployment in each year was high

with reference t o rates reported by other researchers,

however it showed a slight decrease between 1989 and 1994.

Underemployment was widely distributed across majors. While

A r t s r graduates experienced the highest rate of

underemployment i n l994, graduates of professional prograns

(Education, Engineering, Health Science) experienced rates

of underemployment which were also relatively high.

Perhaps most surprising were the descriptive results

with reference to age. Although the youngest cohort of

workers experienced extremely high rates of underemployment,

significant levels of underemployment were experienced by

workers of al1 ages. The increase i n rates of

underernployment for workers at ages of 40-44 and 45-49 was

e s p e c i a l l y troublesome.

By 1994 workers were increasingly anxious with

reference to the future stability of their occupations.

Rates of a c t u a l job loss were l o w vis-a-vis the fear of job

loss. As previously noted, a sense of insecurity on t h e

part of Canadian workers was most definitely suggested by

the descr ipt ive analysis. There is no question that the

recession and economic instability of the early n i n e t i e s had

an impact upon Canadian workers.

The nature of underemployment also changed between 1989

and 1994. The objective indicators of underemployment were

more s t r o n g l y correlated with the overal l measure of

underemployment in 1994. By 1994, underemployed workers

were more l i k e l y to b e involuntarily working part-time or on

a short-term.

Finally, the industries which employed post-secondary

graduates changed between 1989 and 1994. The most important

changes were an increase i n workers in re ta i l and personal

services and a decrease i n workers i n publ ic administration.

Retail and personal services provided the second largest

percentage of jobs for post-seconhry graduates in 1994.

The descriptive analysis senred as a guideline for the

first multivariate model, which tested a series of

determinants of underemployment. While clerical occupations

and occupations in the traditional service sector were

associated with higher underemployment, individuals working

in community services experienced lower underemployment.

Individuals who feared a job loss and who had ac tua l l y los t

a job in the five years leading up to each sunrey year

experienced higher rates of underemployment.

The second multivariate model which was presented in

the fourth chapter added a series of interactions tu the

original model . The interactions revealed t h a t older and

more highly educated individuals working in traditional

services experienced higher rates of undermployment. While

graduates of business programs at more advanced levels

experienced lower rates of underemployment, business

graduates of less advanced programs experienced higher ra tes

of underemployment. The interactions suggested t h a t gender,

highest level of education attained and major were

determinants which interacted in a number of ways ta predict

lower rates of underemployment for some post-secondary

graduates and higher rates of underemployment for others.

An analysis f o r each level of education, major and gender

was undertaken to further explore the interactions.

Advanced levels of study were par t i cu la r ly advantageous

for some of the graduates in each survey year. Higher

levels of study were associated with lower rates of

underemployment for Business graduates and for women who had

completed programs in traditionally male-dominated

disciplines. For Engineering and Health Science graduates

in general, however, advanced study was associated with

higher rates of underemployment. Women and older workers

who had pursued training in engineering and health science

were exceptions to this rule; f o r these graduates higher

levels of study were associated with lower rates of

underemployment Wi th ref erence to older graduates, it was

suggested that these differences might be attributed to the

availability of better occupational opportunities when these

older graduates had entered the labour-force,

It wa3 interesting to note that fear of job 1003

predicted higher rates of underemployment for almost a l 1 of

the post-secondary graduates i n both years. This strongly

suggests t h a t fear of job loss and greater occupational

insecurity cut across credentials; t h e occupational

restructuring and downsizing o f the late-eighties and,

part icu lar ly , the ear ly -n ine t i e s affected al1 graduates.

Finally, the analysis provided some interesting

findings with reference to the ways in which men and women

experienced underemployment . While there were no major

d i f f e r e n c e s between the sexes (the direction of the

re la t ionsh ips were the same}, the analysis suggested some

important circumstances under which women en j oyed lower

rates of underemployment i n comparison to men. For example,

women who had graduated from advanced business programs were

significantly less underemployed in 1994. The analysis on

each level of education suggested that women who graduated

from advanced programs i n health and engineering science

were associated w i t h lower rates of underemployment than

those who pursued similar training a t the c o l l e g e or trade

school levels . Women who had completed graduate or

professional degrees and who were working in hi-tech

occupations were also less prone to underemployment in 1989.

9 f

While t h i s research did provide some interesting

f indings, it also faced some limitations. The determinants

of underemployment which were considered in this analysis

were by no means exhaustive. There are a nurnber of

personality traits, attitudes and beliefs (Le .

determination o r motivation to find a certain job) which

would have been h e l p f u l in explaining dif f erent ial

propensities to underemployment. Incorne was another

possible determinant of underemployment which was not

included in the model. It i s likely that post-secondary

graduates with higher incomes would have been associated

with lower rates of underemployment. This however, was not

the focus of t h i s research as income is not a direct

indicator of the match between oners education and

occupation.

Tt was quite surprising to f i n d that a relatively small

amount of research has actually been devoted to t h e subject

of underemployment . The absence of a broad base o f

theoret ica l and empirical research on this topic limited the

potent ia l to base the research on well developed concepts

and theory . A third limitation of this study concerned the measure

o f underemployment which was used in t h i s analysis. While

two of the indicators which comprised this measure were

object ive i n nature, three of the indicators were subjective

and consequently subject to the interpretations and

perceptions of each individual worker. Many different

reasons could have encouraged a part icu lar respondent t o

perceive his or her occupation t o be more c l o s e l y or more

distantly related to his or her level of education. The

same could be said for the other two subjective indicators

of underemployment. Because self -report meaaures are

frequently used in the existing research on underemployment,

1 do not beiieve that t h i s l i m i t a t i o n invalidates the

results of t h i s analysis.

Finally and related to the third limitation of this

study, 1 believe one of the difficulties in completing this

research involved the absence of a valid, objective measure

of underemployment . To some extent, t h i s reflects t h e

d i l e m a s researchers have encountered i n attempting to

arrive at objective rneasures of occupational s kill and

educational requirements. In the literature there is still

considerable discussion as to how researchers can arrive at

a valid measure of s k i 1 1 (Clogg and Sullivan, 1983:117;

Redpath, 1993: 7 ) . In the absence of such a measure, many

researchers continue to estimate rates of underemployment

through self-report studies and other subjective indicators.

5.3 stautaati91+ C a l t r f b u ~ ~

Befose discussing the major contributions of this

thesis, 1 will brief ly refer back to the literature which

was reviewed in the first chapter. In the revfew, three

general trends were identified as being associated with the

problem of underemployment . n i l e the statistical analysis

presented in this thesis would seem to support the

prevalence of a i l three of these trends, two stand out in

particular. It was noted that increasing underemployment

was associated with an increase in non-standard forms of

employment , and that increasing underemployment is

associated with an increase i n t h e proportion o f occupations

provided by the service sector, which is itself quite

diverse and polarized. Accordingly, the statistical

analysis revealed that a greater percentage of

post-secondary graduates were working in the traditional

service sector by 1994, and that it was the two object ive

indicators (rather than the subjective indicators) of

underemployment which increased between 1989 and 1994.

These statistical changes are in l i n e w i t h the trends

identified in previous research on underemployment, which

suggested that traditional and lower-level service jobs

would continue to grow, as would non-standard forms of

employment . W i t h reference to the major contributions of this

thesis, 1 would l i k e t o discuss five important findings.

The first concerns the relationship between age and

underemployment. UnderempLoyment is often seen as a

temporary problem, typically experienced by young people in

the transition from school to work. My research indicates

that underemployment is in fact a widespread problem which

is experienced by workers of al1 ages. The General Social

Surveys were particularly useful i n that they included

individuals of al1 ages and education levels, whereas many

s tud ie s which investigate underemployment use recent

graduates. Identifying underemployment as a more structural

problem, which is experienced by a l 1 workers regardless of

age, changes the nature of the problem from a transitional

problem of youth t o a structural problem which should be

addressed i n future researcb.

The second finding which 1 would l i k e to rei terate

concerns the anxiety experienced by pst - secondary graduates

with reference to the viability of their current

occupational situations. There was a significant increase

in the percentage of respondents who believed that they

would lose a job within t h e next year, cornpared to the

actual nimiber of individuals who had los t jobs in the

previous five years. This suggests that the economic

instability and restructuring of t h e early n i n e t i e s had

indeed affected workerst attitudes and expectations.

Perhaps most striking is t h e fact that the individuals

included in the analysis were post-secondary graduates who,

at least i n theory, held an advantage with regards to better

occupational possibilities. Put another way, if

post-seconda- graduates were experiencing anxiety, what

could be said for individuals who only possessed high-school

diplornas ?

A t h i r d important finding concerns the d i s t r i b u t i o n of

underemployrnent across subject majors. It is interesting to

note that while certain majors were associated with lower

rates of underemployment, the real i ty of these relationships

was not simple. There was an important i n t e r a c t i o n between

various majors (engineering and health sciences, business

and education) and highest level of schooling which

suggested that lower rates of underemployment were

contingent upon more than simply choosing a certain (most

often technical, or scientific) sub jec t major. While these

ffndings suggested that there is some value in pursuing

higher educational credentials, they also cautioned against

generalizing these benefits across sub jec t majors and

gender. The notion that graduates of general degrees are

always the victims of underemployment, or alternately that

graduates of t e chn ica l , or specific programs are unaffected

by underemployment is, quite simply, no t supported by these

data.

A fourth finding which is particularly important

concerns t h e changing nature of underemployment. When

underemployment is measured through subjective indicators it

i s subject t o criticism, because it exists only t o the

extent that it is perceived by each individual worker. The

fact t h a t underemployrnent in 1994 was increasingly reported

on the objective indicators speaks to the reality of

underemployment . Objective underernployment is a reflection

and a result of a broader change in the nature and context

of work. Thus, it is not the expectations of workers which

are rising but rather work itself which is changing i n the

direction of part-the, contract, temporary, andior own

account self-employment.

The f i n a l contr ibution which should be restated

concerns the change i n the distribution o f graduates in each

industry between 1989 and 1994. It is both surprising and

somewhat troublesome that by 1994, personal and retail

services provided the second largest source of jobs for

post-secondary graduates. This change means t h a t more

of better

post-secondary graduates are working i n positions which are

often low-paying, unstable and for which they are o f t e n

greatly overqualified. Moreover, the increase in the

percentage of post-secondary graduates in traditional

services could be indicative of a lack

service-sector jobs for post-secondary graduates.

In the current literature on work, one discussion which

is frequently encountered concerns the future of work.

Critics point to the growth in the service sector, the

evidence of polarization, and the increasing arnount of

cornpetition resulting from a h igh ly educated work-force as

evidence that the future work-force which will be largely

underempioyed and degraded. At the same time, business

ins iders reiterate the shortage of s killed and experienced

workers for hi-tech jobs, ernphasiting the need t o import

workers from other countries due t o a shortage of adequately

skilled workers i n Canada. My research speaks to this

debate. If the problem currently facing Canadian employers

is a shortage of properly s k i l l e d employees, there should

not be as many post-secondary graduates experiencing

underemployment . Moreover, the s k i l l e d worker argument is

undermined by t h e high levels of h igh ly educated graduates

from programs in engineering and health science. ft i s my

understanding that the current probrem of underemployment

has little t o do with a lack of appropriately trained

workers and much more ta do w i t h a shortage of adequate and

secure employment . ' Students, private corporations and the governments

should further research the discrepancy between the needs

and wants of employers and the actual s k i l l s which are

currently offered by post-secondary graduates and

post-seconda- institutions. Further research might also

consider the extent to which employers are willing t o invest

i n their employees through training and mentoring. 1

suspect that there are many underemployed post-secondary

graduates who would be well suLted to fil1 the employee

shortage if they were provided with an appropriate

introduction to the particular s k i l l s desired by a

prospective employer .

There were some interest ing findings with reference to

gender which might also serve as the basis for future

research. In particular, further research might investigate

the occupational opportunities and experiences of women in

fields such as engineering, health science and related

fields. The fact that the deteminants of underemployment

for both men and wornen were relatively similar is somewhat

su rp r i s ing .

As has been noted in previous research and in this

t h e s i s , one of t h e major problems i n researching

underemployment stems from the lack of a truly objective and

valid measure of s k i l l , which makes the task of calculating

rates of underemployment somewhat difficult. Future

research might focus on the development of such a measure.

Arriving at an accurate and concise measure of

underemgioyment is increasingly important as the Canadian

work-force becornes more highly educated. Rates of

underemployment provide a qualitative estimate o f the extent

to which the labour-market is keeping up with the

educational credentials of workers . In considering the

labour-market experiences of individuals who traditionally

e n j oy lower rates of unemployment, rates of underemployment

provide further information as to the quality and experience

of work.

This research has demonstrated t h a t underemployment is

a rather pressing matter of social concern which affects

many post-secondary graduates with various educational

credentials. In measuring occupational and economic health

we would do well to ernphasize no t just unemployment rates

but a lso rates of underemployment.

'Worker shortages referred t o i n this section are reported to exist i n cornputers and other hi-tech industries. Redpath (1993) also notes the difficulty inherent i n readily accepting the existence of a worker shortage in l i g h t of the underemployment experienced by post-secondary graduates i n her study.

Variable Doecription T i t l e

G24K4E WORKED <30 HRS,, F[ILL-TIBE l=YES; 2=NO; WORK WAS tlNlWAILABI;E 8=DûNr T KNOW;

9=NOT STATED; O=NOT APPLICABLE

PREE'EBRED A PERMANENT JOB I=YES; 2=NO; 8=DONrT KNOW; O=NOT APPLICABLE

AGREE /DISAGREE---JOB REQUIRES HfGH SKILL

CURRENT JOB U T E D TO EDUCATION

1=STRONGLY DISAGREE; 2=SOMEWHAT DIS-; 3=SoMEWRAT A m ; 4=STRONGLY AGREE ; 5=AGREE (NO DEGREE) 6=DISXEtEE (NO DEGREE) 7=NO OPINION 9=NOT STATED O=NOT APPLICABLE

'L=CLOSELY 2=SûMEWEiAT 3=NOT AT ALL 9=NOT STATED O=NOT APPLICABLE

E41 OVERQUALIFIED FOR CURRENT l=YES; 2=NO; JOB 8=DûNtT KNOW;

9=NOT STATED; O=NOT APPLICABLE

DVED-JUS MAJOR FIELDOFSTUDY l=EDUCATION, COUNSELLING 2=FINE/APPLIED ART 3=EKiWWïTIES 4=SOCiAL SCIENCE S=EUSINESS/ADKïN 6=BIOLOGICAL SCIENCE 7=ENGIN5RING 8=ENGINEERING 9=HEALTH SCIENCE IO=MATH 11=OTHER

97=NOT STATI.=D 99..NOT APPLICABLE

DVSZC-69 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASS l=TRADITIONAL PRIMARY 2=NON-TRADITIONAL PRIM 344ANuFACTURING-RESOURCE 4=MANUFACTURING-LABOUR 5~MANUFaCTURZNG-SCALE eMANDNTüR1NG-PRODUCT 7=MAN[J??ACTüRING-SCIENCE 8=CONSTRUCTION 9=DIST. SERVICES-TRANSPORT lO=DIST. SERWCES-COMMUNICATIO 11-DfST, SERVICES-WHOLESALE 12-CûNSUMER SERVXCES-RETAIL 13-CONSUMER SERVICES-PERSONAL 14-BUSINESS SERVICES-FINANCE 15-BUSINESS SERVICES-MGMT 16-CQMMUNITY SERVICES-EDUC 17-COMMUNITY SERVICES-HEALTH 18-PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 97-NOT APPLICJBLE 98-DON'T KNOW 99-NOT STATED

STANDARD OCCUPATIONAL CODE l=MANAGEXS/ADMINISTRATORS S=MA;NAGEMENT/ADMIN, RELATED 3=LIFE/SCIENCE/MATH/CQMPUTER 4=ARaITECTS/ENGINEERS/RELATED 5-SOCULL SCIEXCE/RELIGXON 6=TEACHING RELATED 7=MEDICINE AND HEALTH 8=ARTfSTfC/LITERARY %STENOGRAPHER/TYPIST 10=BOOKKEEPING/ACCOUNT-RECORDS ll=rnP. OPERATORS/MA!J!ERrAL 12=RECEPTfON/fNFO,/MAïL 13=LIBEtAEkY/FïLE/OTEIER CLERICAL 14=SALES/CQMMODITLES 15=sA.LES/S~VICES I6=PROTECTIVE SERVICES 17=FOQD/BEvERAGE/ACC~OIIATI:ON 18=PERSONAL/APPAEEL SERVICES i94THER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS 20=FAI(M OCCUPATIONS 21=PEUMARY OCCUPATIONS 22=FOOD/BEV. PROCESS ING 23=PRûCESSING (MCEPT FOOD) 24=MAî3KDE/RELATED OCCUPATIONS 25=ELECTRTCALIELECTRONIC REL'D 26=TEXTItES/FUFt/LEATHER

DVAGEGR AGE GROUP

DEDU-CM HIGHEST LEVEL OF STUDY

DVSEX

H42

27=WOOD/RWBEWPLASTICS 28=REPAIRMEN (EXCEPT ELECTRIC) 29=EXCAVATZNG/ PA?JING/FZI~ 30=0THER CONSTRUCTION TRADES 31=TRANSPORT OPERATING 32=MATERIAL HANDLfNG 33=OTHER CRAE"L'S AND EQUIPMENT 97=NOT APPLICABLE 98=M1NVT KNOW 99=NOT STATED

1 O=MASTERS/DOCTORATE 20=aACEIELOR/UNDERGRADüATE 30=COMMüNITY COLLEGE 4O=TRADE SCHûûL SO=IIIGH SamL 6O=LESS TEUW KIGEI SCEfOOL 70=OTHER SCHOOLING 8 0=NO SCKOOL ING 99=NOT STATED

SEX I = M . ; 2=FEMALE

LIKELIHOOD WILL LOSE JOB i=YES; IN THE NEXT YEAR 2=NO;

9=NOT STATED O=NOT APPLICABLE

JOBLOSS JOB LOSS PAST 5 YEARS I=YES; 2=NO; 8=DONtT KNOI; 9=NOT STATED; O=NOT APPLICABLE

DVEDU-CûK EZIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATfON (!3EE ABOVE FOR CATEGORIES) ATTAINED

O=NOT APPLICABLE l=WORKING FOR SQMEONE ELSE 2=SELF-EMPLOYED 3=NOT STATED

2: V- this mAnalvris* 1994 Da- -

H6C4 WORKED <30 HRS., FULL-TiME I=YES; 2=NO; WORK WAS UNAVAILABLE 8=WNtT KNOW;

9=NOT STATED; O=NOT APPLICABLE

PREFERRED A PEXWWENT JOB l=YES; 2=NO; 8=DONvT MOW; O=NOT APPLICABLE

CURRENT JOB RELATED TO EDUCATION

1=STRONGLY DISAGREE; 2=SûMEWHAT DISAGREE; 3=SOMEWnAT AGREE; 4=STRONGLY AGREE; 5=AGREE (NO DEGREE) 6=OISAGFEE (NO DEGREE) 8=DON'T KNOW 9=NOT STATED O=NOT APPLICABLE

1=CLOSELY 2 = s w m 3=NOT AT ALL 8=DONVT KNOW 9=NOT STATED O=NOT APPLICABLE

OVERQUALIFIED FOR CrJRRENT I=YES; 2=NO; JOB 8=DONtT KNQW;

9=NOT STATED; O=NOT APPLICABLE

DVA2 OGR MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY 1tEDUCA.T ION, COIINSELLING 2=FZNE/APPLXED ART 3=HUMMITIES 4=SOCUU, SCIENCE 5=BUSINESS/ADMm 6=BIOLOGICAL SCIENCE 7=ENGI-G 8=ENGINEERING 9=HEALTH SCIENCE

IWMATK 1 T=OTRER 97=NOT APPLICABLE 98=DûN1T KNOW

DVH12SIC STANDARD INDUSTRIAL C W S l=TRADITIONIIL PRîMARY 2=NON-TRADITIONAL PRIM 3=MANüE'AC~ING-RESQURCE 4=MANUFACTURING-LABOUR S=MANUE'ACTURING-SCALE 6=-"iVEUNG-PRODUCT 7=MANUFACTURING-SCIENCE 8=CONSTRUCTION 9=DIST. SERVICES-TRANSPORT 10=DfST, S E R V I C E S - C ~ I C A T I O Il-DIST. SERVICES-WHOLESALE 12-CONSUMER SERVICES-RETAiL 13-CONSUMER SERVICES-PERSONAL 14-BUSINESS SERVICES-FINANCE IS-BlfSINESS SERVICES-MGMT 16-COeiIMZTNI!I!Y SERVïCES-EDUC 17-CûWüNITY SERVICES-REALTH 18-PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 97-NOT APPLICABE 90-DONIT KNOW 99-NOT STATED

DVH13SOC STANDARD OCCUPATIONAL CODE l=MANAGERS /ADMINISTRATORS 2=-/ADMIN. RELATED 3=LIFE/SCImCE/MATH/CQMPUTER 4=ARCRI TECTS/ENGINEERS/RELATED S=SOCIAt SCIENCE/RELIGION 6=TEACEfING RELATED 7=MEDfCINE AND EEALTH 8=ARTISTIC/Lf TERARY 9=STENOGRAPHER/TYP IST 10=BOOKKEEPING/ACCOm-RECORDS lT=EDP. OPERATORS/MATERIA.L 12=RECEPTZON/ INFO - /=L 13=LIBRARY/FILE/OTlER CLERICU 14=SAfiES/CûMMODf TIES 15=SALES/SERVI:CES I6=PROTECTIVE SEIiVTCES 17=FOOD/BEVERAGE/ACCCIMODAïTON I8=PERSONAL/APPAREL SERVICES 19=OTHER SoRVfCE OCCüPATI ONS 20=EARM OCCUPATIoNs 2l=PRIMARY OCCUPATIONS 22=FOOD/BW. PROCESS ING 23=PROCESSZNG (EXCEPT FOOD) 24=MKEtNE/RELATED OCCEPATf ONS

DVAGEGR AGE GROUP

2S=EUCTRICAL/ELECTRONIC REL'D 26=TEXTILES/E'üR/LEAlXER 27=WOOD/RüBBER/PLASTICS 28=REPAIRMEN (MCEPT ELECTRIC) 29.-EXCAVaTING/PAmNG/Wf RE 30=OTEE23 CONSTRUCTION TRADES 3l=TRANSPORT OPERATING 32=MATERIAL HANDLING 33=0THER CRAFTS AND EQUIPMENT 97=NOT APPLICABLE 96=DONVT KNOW 99=NOT S TATED

l=EARNED DOCTORATE 2=MASTERS DEGREE 3=üNW. CERT/DIPLOMA MOVE

BACH, 4=FïRST PROFESSIONAL DEGREE 5=BACHELORS DEGREE 6=DIPLûMA E'ROM COUEGE 7-DIPL- FROM TRADE SCHOOL 8=EIïGH SCHOOL DiPLOMA 9=LESS TIfAN EfIGE SCHOOL lO=oTHER 1 l=NO SCHOOL ING l2=D0 NOT KNOK 13=NOT STATED

LIKELIHOOD HILL LOSE JOB IN THE NEXT YEAR

1=VERY LIKELY; 2=s- LIKELY; 3=SaJ!!EWBAT UNLIKELY; 4=VERY UNLIKELY; 8=DONVT KNOK 9=NOT STATED O=NOT APPLICABLE

JOB-LOSS JOB LOSS PAST 5 YEARS 1=YES; 2=NO; O=DONtT KNOW; 9=NOT STATED; O=NOT APPLICABLE

Fil ter Variables

DVA19 HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ( S E ABOVE FOR CATEGORIES) ATTAINED

CLASS OF WORKER

WORKED IN REFERENCE WEEK

i=EMeLOYEE 2zSELF-EMPLOYED B=DO NOT KNOW 9=NOT STATED O=NOT APPLICABLE

Aa>.ndix 3: Recoded Variables U u d in the Anoivaii. 1989 D a t a - S e t

l=yes; O=no, not applicable I=yes; O=no, not applicable l=strongly disagree, somewhat disagree, disagree;

O=stxongly agree, somewhat agree, agree

l=not at all, somewhat; O=yes l=yes; O=no, not applicable

Dependent Variable UNDEREMP=UNDPT+UNDTEMP+UNSDKL+UNDREL+UNDOVQ

D e t e r r a i h a n t a DVEDU-CM HIGE109 7=GRADUATE PROFESSIONAL DEGREE

6=BACHELOR/UNIV. CERT 5=COLIZGE DIPLQMA 4=TRADE DIPLûiYA 3=HfGff SCHOOL 2=LESS THAN BIGEI SCEiOOL I=NO SCHOOLING

DVS 1 C-8 9

I=EDfiATION, COUNSELLING Z=FINE/APPLIED ART 3=EIUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE 4=BUS INESS S=BIOLOGICAL SCIENCE 6xENGINEER 1 NG 7=HEAt'rH SCIENCE $=MATH

l = P R m m Y Z=MANUFaC-G 3=CONSTRUCTION 4=DISTRZBUTIVE SERVICES S=RETAIL AND PERSONAL SERVICES 6=ETWWCX 7=BUSIUESS SERVTCES 8=COMMUNITY SERVICES StPOBLI C ADMINISTRATION

l=WQMEN; O=MEN (REFERENCE CATEGûRY) T=VERY LIKELY, SOMEWHAT LIKELY O=S- UNLIKELY, VERY TJNLIKELY, DON'T IWOW, NOT STATED, NOT APPLICZBLE

1=YES; O=NO, NOT APPLICABLE L=EDUCATION GRADUATE; O-ALL OT- T=ARTS/HüMANIT ISS GRADS ; o=AU OTIIERS l=BUSINESS O U A T E S ; O=ALL OTHERS l=HUMANITIES/ENGINEERING GRADS; O WTHERS l=COMMUNI TY SERVICE WORKERS ; o=m OTHERS f=FOOD/B~RAGE/ACCOMODATXON, PERSONAL APPAREL SERVICES, OTHER SERVICES;

O=ALL OTEfERS I=LIFE/SCIENCE/MAliH/CWUTERS; ARCHITECTS/ENGINEERS/RELATED;

O = A U OTHERS I=STENOGRPHER/TYPIST; BOOKKEEPING; RECEPTZON/3CNFORMATION; LIBRARY, OTHER CLERICAL;

O=ALL OTHERS.

Fiter Variables

D m 9 POSTSEC

D V G I l H S IORKER OTfIERS

1=TRADE, COLUGE, UNDERGRAD DE- CERTIFICATE, GRADUATE AND PROFESSIONAL DEGREE;

o=AU OTHERS 1=WORKED FOR SQMEONE ELSE; O=ALf ,

***Reference G r o u p s = 5 ,8 +* Reference Groups= 1-7, 9 * Reference Groups= 1-2, 5-8, Il, 14-16, 20-34

APPendix 4 : Remùed Veables U8ed in the AnsLv8i8, 1994 Data - Seg

H6C4 UNDPT2 l=yes; 0-0, not applicable üNDTEMP2 l=yes; Osno, not applicable UNDSKL~ l=strongly disagree, somewhat

disagree, disagree; O=strongly agree, somewhat agree, agree

UNDREL2 l-riot at all, somewhat; O=yes UNDOVQ2 l=yes; 0-0, not applicable

Dependent Variable UND=Z=UNDPT2+mTEMP2+UNSDKL2+UNDREL2+UNDOVQZ

7=GRAD/PROF DEGREE 6=UNIVERSfTY DEGREE/ CERTIFICATE: 5=COLXGE DIPLCüYA 4=TRADE DIPLOMA 3=HIGH SCHOOL 2=LESS THAN HIGH SCHWL L=NO SCNOOLING

L=EDUATIûN, COUNSEUING 2=FME/APPLIED ART 3 = ~ T I E S / S O C ~ SCIENCE 4=BUSINESS 5=BIOtOGICAL SCIENCE 6=ENGïNXZEtING 7=HEAtTR SCIENCE 8=mm

T=PRIMARY 2 = ~ C T ü R I N G 3=CONSTRUCTZON 4=DISTRIBUTIVE SERVfCES S=RETAIL AND PERSONAL SERVTCES 6=EmANCE 'T=BUSINESS SERVICES 8*CBMJNITY SERVICES 9=PüBLIC ADIMINISTRATION

JOBLOSS D W O G R DVAîOGR

l=W-; O=- (REFERENCE CATEGORY) l=VERY LIKELY? SaMEWHaT LfKELY O=S-T UNLIKELY, VERY UNLIKELY, DON'T KNOW, NOT STATED, NOT APPLICABLE

l=YES; OSNO, NOT APPLICABLE i=EDUCATION GRADUATE; O=ALL OTHERS l=ARTS/H'ITIES GRADS; O=ALL OTHERS l=BUSINESS GRADUATES; O=ALL OTHERS l = ~ T I E S / E N G I ~ I N G GRADS; O=OTHERS T=CûMKüNITY SERVICE WORKERS; o = m OTHERS l = F O O D / B ~ I A C C o M o D A T I ON, PERSONAL APPAREL SERVICES, OTEiER SERVICES;

O = A U OTHERS l = L I F E / S C I E N C E M / C W U T E R S ; ARCHITECTS/ENGINEERS/RELATED;

O=- OTEERS L=STENOGRPHER/TYPIST; BOOKKEEPING; RECEPTION/INFORMATION; LIBRARY, OTHER CLERICAL;

O=ALL OTHERS.

Fiter Variables

DVAi.9 POSTSEC I=TRADE, COLLEGE, LJNDERGRAD D E G W m T I F I c A T E , GRaDUATE AND PROFESSIONAL DEGREE;

O=ALL OTHERS

***Reference Groups= S,8 ** Reference Groupst 1-7, 9

Reference Groups= 1-2, 5-8, 11, 14-16, 20-34

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