analyst presentation results fy11 and bp 2012-2016 conf...

Analyst PresentationResults FY11 and BP 2012-2016

Conf call March 22nd, 2012

www.gasplus.it

11

INDEX INDEX

� MARKET SCENARIO

� HIGHLIGHTS

� FINANCIAL RESULTS

� BP 2012-2016

Euro – Us Dollar Exchange rate

2

MARKET SCENARIO Market

TTF Gas Price

Brent Price Eni Gas Release Price

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$/Bbl - 2011 $/Bbl - 2010

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

1,40

1,45

1,50

1,55


€/$ - 2011 €/$ - 2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


€/MWh - 2011 €/MWh - 2010

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Set Oct Nov Dec

(€/MWh) - 2011 (€/MWh) - 2010

33

HIGHLIGHTS Fin. Overview

� On yearly basis positive Group EBT € 0,1 M but negative Group Net Result -€ 5,9 M

mainly due to the impact of the new Robin Tax Criteria of which - € 3,8 M not recurring. In

Q 4 11 Net Profit up to € 4,5 M thanks to E&P performances and S&S break even

� Favourable price scenario on oil and gas production starting from Q 4 11

� Improved Net Financial Position thanks to working capital decrease and debt

reimbursement. Better cash generation allows to consider the rescheduling of the € 50 M

capital increase

� Positive results of the Exploration and Production thanks to oil and gas prices and the good

performance of the oil field. Full contribution of SPE. EBITDA +72,1%

� Supply and Sales reduced losses quarter by quarter and gained the break-even in Q 4 as

effect of:

� gas portfolio size reduction and optimization (starting from October 11)

� new gas portfolio focused on more profitable segments

� constant monitoring of the commodity risk price

� Retail focusing only on the most profitable clusters of customers in GY11/12

44

FINANCIAL RESULTS Fin. Overview

FY11 financial results

� Increased EBITDA mainly due to better E&P margin, the full contribution of Padana to the FY11 and S&Sportfolio size reduction from IVQ11

� Positive EBT11 but negative Net Result11 due to the negative and unpredictable effect of the new Robintax criteria -€5,1M

4Q financial results

� Significant improvement of EBITDA thanks to the E&P EBITDA €16,8M, and to the the new gas yearcontracts that strongly reduced by -€17,9M S&S EBITDA losses over prior year

FY11 – Group P&L

Group (M€) FY11 FY10* % Change 4Q11 4Q10* % Change

Total Revenues 665,2 540,3 23,1% 106,1 227,8 -53,4%

Operating costs 625,4 528,8 18,3% 86,7 235,4 -63,2%

EBITDA 39,8 11,5 246,5% 19,4 (7,6) 356,3%

EBIT 14,4 (10,9) 231,6% 12,9 (15,0) 185,9%

EBT 0,1 (15,6) 100,6% 8,2 (18,2) 145,2%

Net Result (5,9) (13,2) 55,1% 4,5 (13,4) 133,6%

EPS (€) (0,1) (0,3) 55,1% 0,1 (0,3) 133,6%*Restated to consider the impact of Società Padana Energia PPA

32,7

56,2

11,1 16,8

(24,1) (22,9) (18,1)

(0,2)

2,0

(0,0)

0,9

(0,4)

8,0

6,7

3,9 2,3

(7,0)(0,2) (5,5)

0,9

E&P S&S Retail Network Other

5


EBITDA by BU (M€) EBIT by BU (M€)

FY11 financial results

� Consolidated EBITDA +246,5% vs. 2010

� Consolidated EBIT + 231,6% s. 2010

4Q 11 financial results

� Consolidated EBITDA +356,3% vs. 2010

� Consolidated EBIT +185,9% vs. 2010

FY11 – Group EBITDA & EBIT Trend by BU

11,5 39,8 -7,6 19,4

FY10 FY11 4Q10 4Q11

14,1

34,7

4,7 11,4

(24,1) (22,9) (18,1)

(0,2)

2,0

(0,1)

0,9 (0,4)

4,6

3,5

3,1 1,4

(7,5)(0,8) (5,6)

0,7

E&P S&S Retail Network Other

-10,9 14,4 -15,0 12,9

FY10 FY11 4Q10 4Q11

6


� Reduction in NWC mainly due to portfolio gas size reduction and optimization

� €30M debt reimbursement during FY11

� Improvement of Net Financial Debt by reducing short term exposure and extendingits maturity

December 31, 2011 – Group Balance Sheet

Group (M€) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10* % Change

Inventories 24,5 57,3 -57,2%

Receivables 130,7 242,2 -46,0%

Payables (50,8) (153,6) 66,9%

Other working Credits/Debits 3,6 (25,9) 114,0%

Non current Assets 513,5 538,0 -4,5%

Taxes, Abandonment, Severance and Other provision (215,8) (206,0) -4,7%

Net invested capital 405,8 451,9 -10,2%

Net Financial Debt 212,9 250,6 -15,1%of which long term (142,8) (25,2) -467,5%

of which short term (70,0) (225,4) 68,9%

Equity 193,0 201,3 -4,1%Total Sources 405,8 451,9 -10,2%*Restated to consider the impact of Società Padana Energia PPA

FINANCIAL RESULTS

7

Fin. Overview

175,2

75,4

Acquisition financing Working capital financing

Breakdown of NF Debt as at 31 Dec 2010 (M€) Breakdown of NF Debt as at 31 Dec 2011 (M€)

Breakdown of acquisition financing by duration (M€) Breakdown of working capital financing by duration (M€)

* includes interests; **includes a quota of the IRS fair value

145,7

67,2

Acquisition financing Working capital financing

150,0

44,1

40,5

25,2

26,1

35,0

-

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

160,0

180,0

31 Dec 2010 31 Dec 2011

USFIN financing

Vendor Loan 2017*

ML Term Loan - Baloon

2016**

ML Term Loan -

Amortizing 2012-2016**

Bridge loan 2011

0,3 2,5

31,1 29,7

44,0 35,0

-

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

31 Dec 2010 31 Dec 2011

Revolving 2011 -2016

Revolving 2011

Self liquidating credit

line

Overdraft and others

88

FINANCIAL RESULTS: E&P E&P

FY11P&L - E&P contribution

� FY11 Full contribution of Società Padana Energia

� December 31, 2011 2P hydrocarbon reserves BScme 5,192.

� Favorable gas and oil prices (gas transfer price +16.4% and Brent + 40%)

� Good performance of oil production (IVQ11 vs. IVQ10 +19,7%)

� Successful drilling of Muzza 5 dir (Recovato). Gas-in expected in IIQ12.

� Romanian authorities(NAMR) approved the transfer of 15% of the off-shore licenses (Midiaand Pelican) to Gas Plus

� Ongoing technical analysis in Poland and Netherlands

E&P (M€) FY11 FY10* % Change 4Q11 4Q10* % Change

Hydrocarbon Production (MScme) 278,6 218,4 27,6% 68,0 70,2 -3,1%of which oil and condensate 34,0 7,8 334,2% 8,2 6,9 19,7%

of which natural gas 244,7 210,6 16,2% 59,8 63,3 -5,6%

Exploration Capex 1,8 6,4 -71,2% 0,2 1,0 -84,5%Development Capex 9,0 11,6 -22,1% 2,5 2,9 -12,3%

EBITDA 56,2 32,7 72,1% 16,8 11,1 50,9%

(*) Contribution of Società Padana Energia from 19 Oct 2010

99

FINANCIAL RESULTS: Commercial Gas Asset S&S

� Strong S&S EBITDA loss reduction -€17,9M (IVQ11 vs IVQ10)

� FY11 Retail EBITDA equal to zero mainly due to the credit risk conservative approach, given the external

financial market conditions

� Gas Year 2011/2012 Commercial gas area restructuring:

• drastic portfolio size reduction (4Q11 vs 4Q10 Volume -67% for S&S BU and -50% for Retail BU) and

optimization of the commercial gas portfolio

• strong commodity risk monitoring

FY11P&L - Commercial Gas Asset Contribution

99

S&S (M€) FY11 FY10 % Change 4Q11 4Q10 % Change

Supply (MScm) 2.003,0 1.950,9 2,7% 190,4 800,8 -76,2%

Sales (MScm) 2.131,1 1.883,2 13,2% 264,6 791,5 -66,6%Captive reatil 549,5 599,1 -8,3% 107,5 215,0 -50,0%

Third retail 698,4 675,0 3,5% 103,2 327,9 -68,5%

Trading/Balancing 883,1 609,1 45,0% 53,9 248,6 -78,3%

EBITDA (22,9) (24,1) 5,0% (0,2) (18,1) 99,1%

Retail (M€) FY11 FY10 % Change 4Q11 4Q10 % Change

Sales (MScm) 545,3 593,3 -8,1% 105,7 212,5 -50,2%Residential 109,4 130,6 -16,2% 38,6 46,8 -17,6%

Small Business/Multipod 102,7 124,1 -17,2% 20,6 48,4 -57,5%

Industrial 333,1 338,6 -1,6% 46,6 117,4 -60,3%

EBITDA 0,0 2,0 -100,0% (0,4) 0,9 -144,5%

1010

FINANCIAL RESULTS : N&T Network and Transportation

� Volumes down 8,4% mainly due to warmer winter temperatures and to deconsolidation of

Sant’Agostino concession (July 10)

� Not considering FY10 extraordinary events (distribution equalization income €0,6M and AEEG

fine reimbursement €0,2M), the FY11 N&T EBITDA shows a €0,5M reduction due to an

increase in G&A and other not operating costs

� During 2011, the Group awarded a tender for the renewal of a 12 years gas concession in the

municipality of Offanengo

FY11P&L – N&T Contribution

N&T (M€) FY11 FY10 % Change 4Q11 4Q10 % Change

Distributed Volumes (MScm) 192,9 210,5 -8,4% 64,0 70,0 -8,6%

Direct end users (#K) 89,2 88,5 0,8% 89,2 88,5 0,8%

Pipeline (Km) 1.471,1 1.464,7 0,4% 1.471,1 1.464,7 0,4%

CAPEX 1,6 1,0 69,0% 0,4 0,3 58,1%

EBITDA 6,7 8,0 -16,3% 2,3 3,9 -40,6%

11

FINANCIAL RESULTS: Storage Storage

SAN BENEDETTO (49% GPS)

EIA in process, and ongoing the engineering

for NOF purposes (Law 334/99)

POGGIOFIORITO (100%GPS)

EIA in process, and ongoing the engineering

for NOF purposes(Law 334/99)

SINARCA PROJECT (60% GPS)

Storage concession expected during 1H12.

Assignment of EPIC underway

FY11P&L – Storage contribution

Working gas

Gasplus Share

(MSmc) (MSmc)

San Benedetto (AP) 522,0 255,8(49% GPS)

Poggiofiorito (CH) 157,0 157,0(100% GPS)

Sinarca (CB) 324,0 194,4(60% GPS)

Total 1.003,0 607,2

1212

BP 2012-2016 – OUTLOOK 2012 Forecast

� Budget Scenario a) Brent 84,0 €/bbl; b)Steady gas and oil production (about 260Mscme)

� EBITDA improvement due to:

� Strong E&P Performance

� Enhancement of Group CommercialPortfolio

� NF Debt maximum expected in € 185 Mln at31.12.2012, without Capital Increase

� Capex Program of about € 33 Mln

Expected 2012 EBITDA – BU Breakdown

2012 Group Portfolio (MScm)

Equity Gas

Gas on Long

Term Transit

Other Supply

Captive Resid. and SB

Third Retail

Captive Ind. and Mpod

Balancing

Supply Sales

565 MScm 580 MScm

60% 74%

BU E&P BU

Commercial

gas Assets

BU Network BU Storage Staff costs GROUP

TOTAL

92% 3%10%

-1%-4%

60-70 M€

Expected 2012 Capex Breakdown by BU (M€)

29,4

1,0 1,7

0,9

E&P N&T Storage Other

1313

BP 2012-2016 – MEDIUM TERM OVERVIEW Forecast

� Business Plan Assumptions:

� E&P: development of the Italian gas fields and increase in gasproduction, selected explo capex and further investments inRomania related to firm-in agreement and pre-feasibility study

� Commercial Gas Assets: pursuant to 2012 business strategy

� Network: retention of the existing concessions

� Storage: pre-development phases until concessionassignment

� Financial: reduction of NFP according to Senior Loanamortization plan and thanks to reduction of working capitalfinancing

� The BP 2012-2016 is focused on ongoing business of the Group;as a consequence the expected results don’t include contributionfrom start-up projects, in particular in Romanian E&P and SinarcaStorage

2012 2016

260 MScmc

410 MScme

Expected Hydrocarbons Production

CAGR: +12,1%

2012 2016

60-70 M€

80-100 M€Expected EBITDA

CAGR: +9,3%

33 M€

106 M€

Cumulated Capex

2013-2016

2012

139 M€

E&P -

Dev

66%

E&P -

Explo

16%

Network

13%

Storage

2%

Other

3%

Expected avg. Brent price:74,8 €/bbl

Expected BP Capex and breakdown by BU

1414

Company Profile Annex

Shareholding Share information

N. of share: 44.909.620

Share price as of 31/12/2011: € 4,95

Share Price as of 21/03/2012 : € 5,60

Mkt cap 21/03/2012 : € 251,5 million

Italian Stock Exchange – segment MTA

Own shares as of 31/12/2011: 1.375.155

Share price performance

Group structure Management

Giovanni Dell’Orto

Cinzia Triunfo

Achille Capelli

Sandro Mezzi *

Davide Usberti

Germano Rossi

Gianmaria Viscardi

Chief Executive Officer

Chairman International Exploration & Production

Chief Financial Officer

Director of Network Business Unit

Planning, Development & General Affairs Director, CEO of Società Padana Energia

Network Chief Executive Officer

Other group’s executives

* ad interim

Director of E&P Business Unit

Fabio Guastella Responsible of Supply & Sales Business Unit

13000

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Gas Plus FTSE Mib

100% 100% 96,9%

SocietàPadana

Energia SpA

Gas Plus S.p.A.

Gas PlusItaliana SpA

Gas PlusVendite Srl

RetailE&P S&S

Gas PlusInternational

BV

100%

Reggente SpA

81,5%

100% 100%

100%97%

85%

Gas PlusStorage Srl

Gas PlusReti Srl

Gas PlusEnergia Srl

Gas PlusSalso Srl

Gas PlusTrasporto Srl

OtherStorageNetwork and

Transportation

BU Commercial Asset

Business Unit

Legal Entities

FINDIM GROUP SA,

15,0%

US.FIN SRL, 73,9%

Own Shares, 3,1%

Floating, 8,0%

1515

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of GasPlus. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-lookingstatements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involveknown and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from thoseexpressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning thepotential exposure of Gas Plus to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts,projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’,‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’,‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of GasPlus and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this Report,including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Group’s products; (c)currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market and industry competition; (g)environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, andsuccessful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subjectto international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arisingfrom recategorisation of reserves; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks,project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates; and (m) changes in trading conditions.All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statementscontained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-lookingstatement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither Gas Plus nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation topublicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light ofthese risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in thispresentation.

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